Catallaxy Files

Australia's leading libertarian and centre-right blog

Archive for January 28th, 2010

It’s the spending, stupid

123 comments

Earlier this week I put up a graph from the CBO via Mankiw that showed US Outlays and Revenues as a percentage of GDP over the past 40 years and going forward another ten years in forecasts.


So I was wondering what the Australian equivalent graph might look like.


I have taken the data from the Budget papers and then updated the 2008-09 onwards data from the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The government have been a bit naughty, I think, downgrading their expected revenue as a percentage of GDP in the MYEFO relative to the Budget Papers. But they also decreased their expected Payments as a percentage of GDP.

As can be seen in both the US and Australian cases the problem facing government is excessive spending. So rather than talking about the need to raise revenue – expected revenue is reverting to the average, we should be looking to cut spending. As I argued before the US spending cuts are a step in the right direction but not nearly enough. The front page of todays Financial Review reports that the Rudd government is considering bringing forward spending cuts. Good – this is a matter of some urgency. Apart from depriving some orangutans of funding the Rudd government has shown no ability to make tough spending cut decisions.

Written by Sinclair Davidson

January 28th, 2010 at 6:47 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

The State of Obama’s Union

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Barack Obama just gave his first State of the Union address. His comments on employment and job creation were not consistent with facts in the public domain.

Because of the steps we took, there are about two million Americans working right now who would otherwise be unemployed. 200,000 work in construction and clean energy. 300,000 are teachers and other education workers. Tens of thousands are cops, firefighters, correctional officers, and first responders. And we are on track to add another one and a half million jobs to this total by the end of the year.

The plan that has made all of this possible, from the tax cuts to the jobs, is the Recovery Act. That’s right – the Recovery Act, also known as the Stimulus Bill. Economists on the left and the right say that this bill has helped saved jobs and avert disaster. But you don’t have to take their word for it.

No let’s not take their word for it; let’s look at the promises and statistics.

So how’s that Recovery Act working for you?

Written by Sinclair Davidson

January 28th, 2010 at 4:23 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Libertarians shall not live by argument alone

10 comments

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7HvURBhMGE&feature=fvst[/youtube]

Written by Sinclair Davidson

January 28th, 2010 at 9:55 am

Posted in Uncategorized

European Invasion

8 comments

Tyler Cowen points to a very interesting article on European economists at US universities.

One-third of the faculty of Harvard University’s economics department hails from Europe. At the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, half of the finance department’s faculty is European. And these schools aren’t alone: European economists are overrepresented at all first-tier American universities and have had a huge influence on economic thinking, doing cutting-edge research in areas ranging from modeling financial markets to assessing risk.

These academics—most of them young rising stars escaping the mediocrity and politicization of economics departments in their countries of origin—see top American schools as the best places to study and teach. “When one wants to become a real economist, to accumulate knowledge and recognition, one has no choice but the United States,” says Chicago’s Luigi Zingales, an Italian who is a leader in the hot field of financial regulation. He’s right—for the time being, anyway.

Cowen has commented on this before.

In percentage terms, fewer and fewer economists are Americans by birth and upbringing. Non-Americans are less likely to be fully fluent in English, which encourages mathematics. Non-Americans also tend to be less market-oriented in their thought. In any case they are less likely to stand along traditional U.S. ideological fault lines or even share ideological fault lines with each other.

The ideology issue is quite interesting.

Obsolete and disproved Marxist and socialist thinking also remained strong within European universities, including in economics departments. Many young economists, scientifically oriented and so recognizing the superiority of free markets, found the climate intellectually stultifying. It remains the case that most French and Italian universities teach economics as a philosophical subject—with opinions mattering as much as facts—not a scientific subject. A Keynesian, statist perspective still dominates most European curricula: free-market professors are an embattled minority.

American economic departments were—and are—much more rigorous and nonpartisan by comparison. Yet isn’t there an ideological opposition between, say, the University of Chicago, known as a cradle of free-market theory, and Harvard, a supposedly liberal campus? “This perception hasn’t much to do with reality,” Bertrand responds. “We are scientists, above all; ideologies do not dictate our research or our teaching.” Alesina, a strong proponent of markets, agrees: “The notion of Harvard being liberal and Chicago free-market doesn’t coincide with academic reality.”

Perhaps Cowen’s ‘less market-orinetated’ European economist is considered a raving right-winger back in Europe.

Written by Sinclair Davidson

January 28th, 2010 at 9:07 am

Posted in Uncategorized