The Coalition carbon pollution scheme was released a couple of days ago and has attracted a lot of media attention. Including the WSJ Asia (now with an annoying pay-wall on its op-ed page for the current day articles).
The political momentum behind cap and trade is melting away a whole lot faster than the Himalayan glaciers — so much so that Australia’s opposition leader has a big, new idea: Ditch the plan altogether and make the costs to taxpayers transparent.
… Mr. Abbott proposed Tuesday instead to set up a fund to pay companies that cut emissions and meet certain criteria, such as preserving jobs.
That’s still a plan for government to pick winners, as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s cap-and-trade plan would. But Mr. Abbott’s proposal has the distinct advantage of limiting and defining the cost to the taxpayer. That’s impossible to do under cap and trade, in which emitting companies buy carbon credits at fluctuating prices and then pass that cost onto consumers.
I think the Coalition plan is as much a political policy as it is an economic policy.
As an economic policy it is very much targeting the low-hanging fruit. To the extent that firms can undertake easy action to reduce their current carbon pollution but simply couldn’t be bothered doing so (for whatever reason good or bad) the government have now put a pot of money on the table to provide some incentive. How much low hanging fruit is there? I don’t know. Is there 5 percent worth – perhaps.
The important point is that this is not a scaleable policy. It could work for a small reduction in carbon pollution but I think it would stuggle to compete against alternative policies for a large carbon cap.
That is where the leaked memo to Penny Wong the Department of Climate Change (HT. LP) is a bit disingenious – the memo talks about abatement in 2020, not in the near future. The Coalition policy is very political in that respect; it is a do something now, do something small, do something transparent policy. In some sense it could even be described as being timely, temporary, and targeted. I can’t imagine this policy in this format continuing to 2020.
This a policy that can be easily modified if and when the global community decide on a common carbon scheme. By contrast the CPRS does not have that advantage. To the extent that a global scheme was inconsistent with the Australian scheme and the government chose to harmonise with the international scheme then existing, and newly created, property rights to carbon pollution would have to be extinguished and compensated. The CPRS could be a very expensive policy mistake if Australia got too far ahead of global sentiment.
The incidence of the Coalition policy is quite clearly on taxpayers while the CPRS incidence falls on those high-income households not being (over) compensated for the policy. In other words, much the same people.
All up it looks to me that rather than having financial markets trading obscure derivative instruments that nobody really understands (and we know where that ends up) the Coalition policy creates a government clearing house. I haven’t quite worked out in my own mind whether the administration costs, measurement costs and auditing costs (transaction costs in general) of running the two schemes would be very different. My instinct is that they will be much the same under each scheme.