Archive for February 13th, 2010
Misguided
It would be amusing to assemble a list of recent articles and speeches that are obviously wrong in their earnest? prognostication. So feel free to submit your examples.
Here are a few of mine:
Pachauri in September 2009
Pachauri in December 2009
Chris Richardson on 14 May 2008
Tim Blair in 2004 on Mark Latham
and who could forget the May 2008 Budget, which Peter Costello noted should be filed in the fiction section of the Parliamentary library.
UPDATE:
I’m now going to make two predictions. Then we will see if I’m misguided.
First, Kevin Rudd will kicked out as Prime Minister within three to six months. When a Prime Minister is being ridiculed (see example of cartoon below) it cannot be long before his position becomes untenable. As noted by many commentators, Rudd has little support within his party. His polling numbers are slipping – and the fall is inexorable. His once unassailable support among the young is evaporating and will never return. While I won’t yet predict a Coalition victory at the next election, I’m confident that Rudd will be replaced by Gillard and the next election will be between Gillard and Abbott.
Second, Australia will not have an Emissions Trading Scheme. As noted in an article by Christopher Pearson, the internet has been remarkably successful in undermining the case for urgent action against climate change. We are witnessing the end of a global phenomenon where the public actually started to believe that governmments could control the climate. It turns out the Emperor had no clothes, and this is being widely realised. It is sad to reflect on the extraordinary waste of resources that have been poured into this great scam, but refreshing to reflect that in the end common sense will prevail.
Will I be wrong? Time will tell.
