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	<title>Comments on: Know your sample size</title>
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	<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/</link>
	<description>Australia&#039;s leading libertarian and centre-right blog</description>
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		<title>By: sdfc</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-3/#comment-151747</link>
		<dc:creator>sdfc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jan 2011 12:55:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-151747</guid>
		<description>Sinclair 

If as you say they are using monthly data to obtain annual temperature anomalies it still seems to me the sample size is too small for reliable statistical analysis. 

This is the reason I wonder why the skeptics are labouring what is quite a weak point of order.

I&#039;m no climate scientist of course so there is probably not much point me arguing this any further.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sinclair </p>
<p>If as you say they are using monthly data to obtain annual temperature anomalies it still seems to me the sample size is too small for reliable statistical analysis. </p>
<p>This is the reason I wonder why the skeptics are labouring what is quite a weak point of order.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m no climate scientist of course so there is probably not much point me arguing this any further.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-3/#comment-20597</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 06:44:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20597</guid>
		<description>BBB/Homer, stop ruining a good thread with crap.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BBB/Homer, stop ruining a good thread with crap.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Williams</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20594</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Williams</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 06:19:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20594</guid>
		<description>BBB, perhaps Jones should consult with JQ then.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BBB, perhaps Jones should consult with JQ then.</p>
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		<title>By: Sinclair Davidson</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20558</link>
		<dc:creator>Sinclair Davidson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 04:49:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20558</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll re-run the regression with the addition 12 months and post the result when the data become available.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll re-run the regression with the addition 12 months and post the result when the data become available.</p>
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		<title>By: dover_beach</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20518</link>
		<dc:creator>dover_beach</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:29:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20518</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Paul, are you that naive?&lt;/i&gt;

Jones has been interviewed many other times; he is hardly a media virgin.

&lt;i&gt;you can have tables up to your armpits and still get confused&lt;/i&gt;

If he can get &#039;confused&#039; while answering questions provided to him via email then he shouldn&#039;t be heading the CRU.

&lt;i&gt;after all people here are confused about the statistics until John helped them out&lt;/i&gt;

John, I believe, is wrong, although I&#039;m happy to change my mind if convinced otherwise. Motl says, in the comments to an above linked post, in relation to the monthly/ yearly problem among other things:

&lt;blockquote&gt;I am still not 100% sure whether it holds for your calculation but these estimates of significance decide whether the annual data could have been white noise. It could, for up to 15 years into the past. But white noise is surely not the best description of the global mean temperatures at more generic time scales: the global temperatures are much more continuous. For example, a decade of monthly anomalies is surely enough to falsify the theory of a &quot;white noise&quot; whether or not the decade under considerations included some human influences: the error margins for the calculated slopes would go down if you used monthly data. Do you agree with this?  
 
For these more general time scales, one surely needs to create a &quot;redder&quot; null hypothesis, a kind of pink noise. Of course, the best stochastic model  has the full &quot;color&quot; encoded by the typical behavior of Fourier components one should expect from the known observations. I am kind of confident that with the best model of this type, no temperature series anywhere in the world, or the global ones, will show any deviation from the stochastic model - even though the stochastic model has no trend incorporated in it.&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Paul, are you that naive?</i></p>
<p>Jones has been interviewed many other times; he is hardly a media virgin.</p>
<p><i>you can have tables up to your armpits and still get confused</i></p>
<p>If he can get &#8216;confused&#8217; while answering questions provided to him via email then he shouldn&#8217;t be heading the CRU.</p>
<p><i>after all people here are confused about the statistics until John helped them out</i></p>
<p>John, I believe, is wrong, although I&#8217;m happy to change my mind if convinced otherwise. Motl says, in the comments to an above linked post, in relation to the monthly/ yearly problem among other things:</p>
<blockquote><p>I am still not 100% sure whether it holds for your calculation but these estimates of significance decide whether the annual data could have been white noise. It could, for up to 15 years into the past. But white noise is surely not the best description of the global mean temperatures at more generic time scales: the global temperatures are much more continuous. For example, a decade of monthly anomalies is surely enough to falsify the theory of a &#8220;white noise&#8221; whether or not the decade under considerations included some human influences: the error margins for the calculated slopes would go down if you used monthly data. Do you agree with this?  </p>
<p>For these more general time scales, one surely needs to create a &#8220;redder&#8221; null hypothesis, a kind of pink noise. Of course, the best stochastic model  has the full &#8220;color&#8221; encoded by the typical behavior of Fourier components one should expect from the known observations. I am kind of confident that with the best model of this type, no temperature series anywhere in the world, or the global ones, will show any deviation from the stochastic model &#8211; even though the stochastic model has no trend incorporated in it.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: Butterfield, Bloomfield &#38; Bishop</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20509</link>
		<dc:creator>Butterfield, Bloomfield &#38; Bishop</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:03:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20509</guid>
		<description>Paul, are you that naive?

Why do you think execs get training with the media?

you can have tables up to your armpits and still get confused after all people here are confused about the statistics until John helped them out</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul, are you that naive?</p>
<p>Why do you think execs get training with the media?</p>
<p>you can have tables up to your armpits and still get confused after all people here are confused about the statistics until John helped them out</p>
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		<title>By: dover_beach</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20508</link>
		<dc:creator>dover_beach</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:02:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20508</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Actually, I believe it was an email exchange, with follow up...He said exactly what he wanted to say.&lt;/i&gt;

Yes, Paul is right.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Actually, I believe it was an email exchange, with follow up&#8230;He said exactly what he wanted to say.</i></p>
<p>Yes, Paul is right.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Williams</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20502</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Williams</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 02:55:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20502</guid>
		<description>BBB,

He brought along a table with those figures on them, FFS.
Actually, I believe it was an email exchange, &lt;b&gt;with follow up.&lt;/b&gt; (He he)

He said exactly what he wanted to say.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BBB,</p>
<p>He brought along a table with those figures on them, FFS.<br />
Actually, I believe it was an email exchange, <b>with follow up.</b> (He he)</p>
<p>He said exactly what he wanted to say.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20499</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 02:47:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20499</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m wrapping up now, but I&#039;ll just offer an invitation to a zero stakes bet. Who wants to bet that, if we add 2010 into the data set used by Jones, that the null hypothesis will not be rejected?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m wrapping up now, but I&#8217;ll just offer an invitation to a zero stakes bet. Who wants to bet that, if we add 2010 into the data set used by Jones, that the null hypothesis will not be rejected?</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Butterfield, Bloomfield &#38; Bishop</title>
		<link>http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/03/03/know-your-sample-size/comment-page-2/#comment-20495</link>
		<dc:creator>Butterfield, Bloomfield &#38; Bishop</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 02:35:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=8419#comment-20495</guid>
		<description>Paul,
Did I say it was ambush?

If you have little experience with the media you can forget the obvious and say things you didn&#039;t really want to say or thought relevant</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul,<br />
Did I say it was ambush?</p>
<p>If you have little experience with the media you can forget the obvious and say things you didn&#8217;t really want to say or thought relevant</p>
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