There are two eections on today; South Australia and Tasmania. Reading the papers gives the impression that both states might see a change in government after today. The South Australian election is quite interesting. The Australian suggests that the Rann government is unexpectedly in trouble.
Today’s Newspoll shows virtually no chance of Mike Rann’s government retaining the numbers to rule in its own right, despite Labor’s record 10-seat majority.
Taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian during the final week of the campaign, the poll found the Liberals ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
Alarmingly for Labor, the party’s primary vote in metropolitan Adelaide has dropped by 12 points since the last election in 2006, to 38 per cent, while the Liberals are on 40 per cent.
Labor’s weak primary vote in South Australia’s key city electorates is extraordinary, highlighting the government’s vulnerability as it seeks a third term.
Centerbet has the ALP winning in the election at $1.38 to the Liberals at $2.93. So the polls and the betting market have very different predictions. Now the scenario that reconciles the two is a hung parliament with Rann getting independent support to form a government. I don’t know enough about South Australian politics to speculate about that scenario.
The Centerbet figures for Tasmania are $1.80 for the Liberals and $2.00 for the ALP. Once you strip out the margin a very slight edge to the Liberals.
Update: Market beats the polls. Again. SA government returned.
The thing with the betting markets, is that you need to look at the movements, as well as the current odds. Tasmania was even-money as little as two days ago, and further back, ALP in South Australia was even higher than it is now. This suggests a lot of late money moving to the libs in the past few days.
No idea if that means anything significant, or if punters are just reacting to the polls…
Fleeced
20 Mar 10 at 10:52 am