On 13 February I made two predictions – one that the Government would not proceed with the emissions trading scheme and the second that Labor would dump Kevin Rudd within “three to six months”.
One has come to pass – I am now more confident that the coming election will be between Gillard and Abbott.
Now Labor luminaries are coming out against Rudd. How long can he last? Unlike Caesar, at least this coup will be bloodless.
Maybe. It’s not just that he’s unpopular, the problem is that he’s trapped himself in the RSPT hole.
Rumour is that he’s going to call an August election. They wouldn’t dump him in those circumstances. It’s probably his best bet actually, because there’s more dignity in losing an election (even after 1 term) than getting rolled by the party in your first term.
daddy dave
12 Jun 10 at 8:27 am
I agree DD – there is more dignity in losing an election. But will his colleagues allow him to lose an election if they think that an alternative would have a better chance of winning?
Samuel J
12 Jun 10 at 8:35 am
More dignity n losing an election? To be emphatically rejected by the people? I think not.
If he steps down now ‘for the party’ he will be remembered as a king slayer. If he goes to an election and loses he will replace whitlam as worst PM ever.
Mind you, I still find it hard to believe the ALP could lose the next election.
Entropy
12 Jun 10 at 8:40 am
People keep talking about Gillard to take over as leader. But as I understand it, her faction doesn’t have the numbers. If they wait till the election is over, Rudd will be replaced by someone else, win or lose. So if Gillard wants to be PM, her only chance is to knife Kevin now while the party is desperate and without other options.
Tim Quilty
12 Jun 10 at 8:44 am
The most unnerving thing about this government is that the hardest blows have been self-administered. The opposition has hardly landed anything. There is still a random chance that one of the government monkeys starts typing electoral Shakespeare, so to speak. Still, I think Abbott’s best strategy is to keep his head down mainly so he doesn’t cop one of his own haymakers.
Skuter
12 Jun 10 at 9:14 am
Dignity and politics as partners…I have a lot of trouble linking the two. It’s a bit like banks and customer service. If the ALP does hand the baton to the Bird of Paradox we are in for an interesting election campaign. Pity the poor punters as their ears are assailed by the special language that the Bird of Paradox has mastered. The very first hint that a change is on will be an ad in the ‘positions vacant’ section in the dailies. It will read something like “Interpreter needed to accompany redhead to various shopping centres, work sites, and, aged care homes. Applications should reach the ALP National Office ASAP.”
Sid Vicious
12 Jun 10 at 10:05 am
Obama will be here in mid-July. He won’t go before then.
boy on a bike
12 Jun 10 at 10:30 am
I had previously thought that too, boab – but with the Obama visit repeatedly delayed, I’m no longer as sure. We could start a pool on it…
Who will be Prime Minister when Obama gets around to visiting:
1) Kevin Rudd;
2) Julia Gillard;
3) Tony Abbott;
4) Nobody (he doesn’t visit)
Fleeced
12 Jun 10 at 10:54 am
Gillard? Surely a childless Fanta pants with a lesbian boyfriend is unelectable? Then you look at her record. She stinks as much as Kev Chavez.
Infidel Tiger
12 Jun 10 at 10:57 am
‘Mind you, I still find it hard to believe the ALP could lose the next election.’
Entopy – What planet are you from!!!!
Look at what former Labor Senator and polling analyst, John Black, said this week. ‘I don’t think you come back from the place [the Prime Minister] is in. As far as Kevin and Labor are concerned, there are too many broken promises to too many people. I don’t think there is a path back, with or without him as leader. The polling has been like a collection of mines and Ship Rudd has hit every one of them.’
Or that current Labor politician and former national ALP secretary Gary Gray has hinted Labour is likely to lose. On Monday he said “It is very, very difficult to get back from these situations. Howard lived in a dream that he could; Keating lived in a dream that he could.”
Even the Great Disaster himself was telling everyone this week after the latest Newspoll that Labour was likely to lose the next election and Tony Abbott is likely to be Australia’s next PM.
Polling published in WA today suggests that Labor could lose EVERY West Australian seat, including Fremantle!!! That’s John Curtin you can hear sobbing in the background. (http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7386902/labor-facing-wipeout-in-wa/)
It’s not a question of whether Labour will lose, the question is how much will Labour lose by and how much self inflicted damage will Labor sustain from its disastrous decision to make Rudd their leader.
Possibily a more important question is what has become of modern Labor that its two most recent ‘new generation’ leaders – Rudd and Latham – have been sooo bad they make Gough look good. I’m struggling to understand how the ALP managed to provide Australia’s best PM – Hawke – bookended with our two worse PMs – Whitlam and Rudd)
johno
12 Jun 10 at 11:09 am
Johno @ 11:09
My recollection is that one crucial factor in the ascent of both Biff Latham and Rudderless was Julia Gillard throwing the support of the Left behind both contenders.
So by this I think we can at least state – Julia has an eye for spotting really ANGRY men who would do virtually anything to tear the Coalition out of government.
Which shows a certain amount of ‘talent spotting’ on her part. But they seem unsustainable choices. After a lifetime in politics, Biff pretty much was burned out and consumed by his anger after the 2004 election.
As for Rudderless – David Marr of all people seems to have beaten the armchair shrinks out of the starting gates and started the first of what will probably many analyses on Rudd’s psychopathies.
Julia has proven rhetorical skills in the Keating mold, and she seems to know how to pull the pin and throw angry human handgrendes at the Coalition. But would Labor be swapping one set of damaged goods in return for another dangerous enigma in annointing her ? There are clear question marks over her judgement.
Myrddin Seren
12 Jun 10 at 11:36 am
johnno, I think a lot of the current polling is a form of protest. A lot of it would revert in an election campaign. Particularly as he will have to go all out for the green vote.
He could still go DD on the ETS.
Entropy
12 Jun 10 at 12:02 pm
johnno, I think a lot of the current polling is a form of protest.
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I’m not sure whether I believe in “protest polling.” It’s certainly a real phenomenon in the minds of the commentariat, but it may be a fiction. It would require general members of the public to act in a very cunning and coordinated way when phoned by a pollster… I just don’t think it happens.
daddy dave
12 Jun 10 at 12:29 pm
When someone actually fronts up to a polling booth, funny things can happen. Last year the LNP were in front right up to polling day, but Bligh still won with a comfortable majority. In the end the Brisbane punters could not elect an old Nat.
And if Gillard becomes leader, the MSM would give her a honeymoon most women only dream about.
Entropy
12 Jun 10 at 12:42 pm
I have to admit the prediction seems a lot less far-fetched than it used to. It’d be quite strange for the ALP to derail itself so close to an election however. And anyone assuming the leadership must know they’re to be a sacrifical goat.
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Or would they? Egos grow large in Canberra and regularly strangle the blood going to the brain.
Adrien
12 Jun 10 at 12:43 pm
Gillard the virgin queen
Entropy
12 Jun 10 at 12:54 pm
It’s extremely unlikely, IMO, that Rudd will go before the election. It’d be sign of panic at the polling, and the ALP won’t go for it. Besides, how bad the polls really are depends on where the swings are. It makes absolutely no difference to Rudd if right-leaning mining towns become even more right-leaning. First term governments in Australia tend to lose a few seats – Howard lost several seats, and the popular vote, in 1998.
Also, one shouldn’t under-estimate Abbott’s ability (ably backed by Barnyard, Tuckey, and ‘avuncular’ Joe Hockey) to shoot himself in the foot. If people see the thin nature of Coalition policy at the moment, the ALP will win. If Greens voters give the preferences back to the ALP, the ALP will win. It remains to be seen whether Abbott can run a disciplined campaign, and pinch a bit of support from the left.
THR
12 Jun 10 at 1:19 pm
Until the bookies make the Coalition favourite, then Labor should still win. Money is a far more accurate reflection of intention than words.
Infidel Tiger
12 Jun 10 at 1:26 pm
Infidel — the odds are narrowing quickly. Labor’s strong odds were held up earlier by very large bets on them to win. Large bets are now starting to fall on the other side of the ledger.
But you’re right. Betting markets are good at this sort of thing.
Jacques Chester
12 Jun 10 at 1:50 pm
“Gillard the virgin queen”
WTF?
FDB
12 Jun 10 at 1:57 pm
Queen Elizabeth, FDB – the woman sold by her propagandists as the heroic saviour of England, above the fray of a male-caused mess etc.
C.L.
12 Jun 10 at 2:06 pm
There’s not enough energy to create a black hole. You need as much energy as the sun to do so. Anyway it would be a fun thing even if we did. We’d be gone in a fraction of a second and no one would feel it.
That’s one way to get rid of AGW.
JC
12 Jun 10 at 2:07 pm
Infidel :
It’s the best indicator but you can’t say it’s 100%. betting markets choose wrongly too.
JC
12 Jun 10 at 2:09 pm
“Gillard the virgin queen”
France may have a supermodel as a first lady, the US has its first African-American presidential family, but when Gillard gets in with that hairdresser guy she has a partner (….are we sure that’s not a marriage of convenience for both parties?), we’ll be first country to have a ‘First Homo’!
Australia: punching above its weight!
Michael Sutcliffe
12 Jun 10 at 2:15 pm
If Gillard becomes PM, hopefully someone tells her lesbian boyfriend that he needs to trade the vinyl jacket in for a leather one.
Infidel Tiger
12 Jun 10 at 2:35 pm
My money is still on Labor winning. And comfortably.
Peter Patton
12 Jun 10 at 2:43 pm
I also predict there will be a Prime Minister Combet, before a Proim Minister Gillard.
Peter Patton
12 Jun 10 at 2:47 pm
Tim Quilty
Gillard has been free of factional constraints for a few years now.
Peter Patton
12 Jun 10 at 2:49 pm
I think you have the correct bet, Sam, but your timing is out.
Rudd’s prime ministership is in a death spiral and his credibility is so threadbare that he can’t pull out. The miners can smell blood and will keep pushing him until he and his stupid RSPT fall over the cliff.
Rudd will be gonski within a fortnight.
Dandy Warhol
12 Jun 10 at 2:53 pm
Just wish he takes swan with him
Entropy
12 Jun 10 at 2:59 pm
@ Entropy – seconded!
Dandy Warhol
12 Jun 10 at 3:11 pm
Gillard? Surely a childless Fanta pants with a lesbian boyfriend is unelectable?
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Her lack of children is not an issue. And she’s popular.
Adrien
12 Jun 10 at 3:13 pm
My money is still on Labor winning. And comfortably.
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Are you talking literally or metaphorically? I put money on Abbott last year when he first took over the opposition leadership and odds were very long. (4.5 to 1, actually). So my money is literally on a coalition victory.
daddy dave
12 Jun 10 at 3:13 pm
Coalition odds at centrebet now down to 2.47 (ALP on 1.52). It seems to come down as every new poll is released.
Fleeced
12 Jun 10 at 4:07 pm
Peter.
Combet seems to also suffer from some latent anger as a result of his father dying when he was young.
Is it too hard to find a senior labor leader that isn’t using their political position to somehow cure them of some depressing event that occurred in their lives?
Even Gillard tries to invent some emotional drama from her young age like something about her father was unable to go to university.
The party seems to require a permanent dispensary for uppers.
JC
12 Jun 10 at 4:18 pm
If anyone moves to depose Rudd, he will call the election early. That way they will have no choice but to get in behind him.
Alternatively, if the coup is successful, there could be blood – Rudd’s at his own hand. He is more unbalanced than Latham. He seriously needs watching.
Another alternative would be for Rudd to melt down away from the cameras and quietly send in his resignation to the GG, leaving whoever to make the announcements.
Gillard was totally behind Rudd’s ascension and was rewarded with a mega department of her own choosing and construction. Look how well that’s gone. BER, sacking teenagers, laptops to every student that haven’t arrived, just to name a few.
She is well and truly tainted by Rudd’s inner circle mentality, which she apparently never challenged.
Keith
12 Jun 10 at 4:25 pm
She is well and truly tainted by Rudd’s inner circle mentality, which she apparently never challenged.
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She was alone in standing by her old comrade when Latham’s memoirs came out. None of it matters. She goes down well with the electorate. She’s not stupid enough to challenge Rudd a few months out from election tho’. At least I hope not for her sake.
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On the other hand if she topples Kevvie, gets wiped on election day and then out come the knives that will be most amusing.
Adrien
12 Jun 10 at 4:38 pm
Yea Keith, I think you’re right. Rudd doesn’t look the full change in the dollar and would bring down the government rather than go by himself. Latham appears saner than this loon.
Say he hears there’s a move to out him, what does he do? As you said he could quickly call an election. That still doesn’t prevent his party from outing him though although it would complicate things.
If he doesn’t do that and they out him, i think he’ll spill the beans or threaten to spill the beans on Gillard that she was in on it at the beginning.
One thing is certain and that’s he isn’t going quietly.
In all honesty I have no difficult in seeing the little Turd as a Sov apparatchik and believe he would have made a really good one.
His maiden speech to parliament spoke about power and the importance of power. The little fuckwit is power crazed.
The other thing that could happen is that he goes completely bonkers and needs to be placed in a padded cell.
ALP implosions are always fun to watch but make sure you’re wearing protective clothing.
JC
12 Jun 10 at 4:46 pm
Having said all that, Abbott needs to make a deal with the public and make it soon. He needs to show he’s a safe pair of hands and will make the deficit and spending his primary objective for the first couple of years.
JC
12 Jun 10 at 4:50 pm
“My money is still on Labor winning. And comfortably.”
Certainly, the conventional wisdom is to believe the betting markets, not the polls.
However there is research suggesting that it is the polls which drive the betting market. Not the “If an election was held today…” question but the “Who do you think will win” queston. The betting market tends to track the latter.
ennui
12 Jun 10 at 5:12 pm
You’re wrong ennui.
The betting markets aren’t tracking the polls at the moment.
The polls are suggesting either a very close to a Lib win and certainly not the odds the betting markets have for a labor win, so how would you explain your theory to the evidence?
JC
12 Jun 10 at 5:17 pm
Betting odds have a historical component, while a poll is a snapshot of a point in time. Naturally, polls influence bets, which then affect odds.
daddy dave
12 Jun 10 at 5:40 pm
Yes, it may prove too difficult for them to remove Rudd before the election… probably best to get behind him for now (which of course, leaves them in prime position to stab him afterward)
Fleeced
12 Jun 10 at 5:44 pm
Gillard is electoral poison. Men hate her because she is a she is a strident shrew of woman with a little brain and women hate her for the same reason.
Rococo Liberal
12 Jun 10 at 7:27 pm
Rudd before the election… probably best to get behind him for now
Very important to stand behind Rudd otherwise he will F**K you.
John H.
12 Jun 10 at 7:30 pm
If Abbott can get traction with some policy initatives that sell well then I think Rudd is toast. However Abbott needs to get on the front foot as soon as the election looms. For Abbotts sake I hope they have been doing some decent work on policy.
TerjeP (say Taya)
12 Jun 10 at 9:11 pm
Yes well the levy on big business to pay for other peoples’ childcare doesn’t look promising, and he will need to come out with something a bit more robust than his current AGW policy to dilute green prefs.
Entropy
12 Jun 10 at 10:07 pm
Gillard is electoral poison. Men hate her because she is a she is a strident shrew of woman with a little brain and women hate her for the same reason.
Funny you that, RL. I found it curious that more than a few left wing women I know have said that they really dislike her. I couldn’t quite figure that one out.
JC
12 Jun 10 at 11:02 pm
I think you’re wrong. I’d like a FFM with Jools and Sarah. Bliss!
Oops. Hope Conroy isn’t watching. I’m pretty sure that’s the sort of thing he’s trying to stamp out.
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 12:42 am
18 November 2006:
No plot to undermine Beazley: Albanese.
Today:
Frontbenchers say no moves to replace Rudd.
C.L.
13 Jun 10 at 11:58 am
I saw the interview with Old Rattlesnake Tanner. He looked a beaten man, or seems to be putting on the appearance of a humble person, as against the one we used to see before the polls showing he and his government are out of there at the next election.
He’s still a lying deceitful turd though. That has never changed.
There he was chortling away about our fair share and how he along with the government was doing their best to steal from one group and give it to another.
David Marr on Insiders also showed what a complete buffoon he is.
When someone mentioned the government was at record 23% support in WA, Marr suggested that level of support gives the government a clear run to fight harder for the “my fair share tax”.
With advice like that from Marr, the libs could be cut up dolls and they’d win.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 12:06 pm
Marr is such a dolt. I can’t stand his smug, inner East Sydney luvvie arrogance. He’s like the barren old spinster who runs the school library.
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 2:01 pm
Gillard is electoral poison.
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What do you base this assertion on?
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Men hate her because she is a she is a strident shrew of woman with a little brain and women hate her for the same reason.
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So why distinguish between them? I have a feeling you travel in very tiny circles. Around and around. leather upholster’d a course. The Tiger skin rug: taxidermy head attached, glass eyes. Adds something to the parlour on a warm winter night with the roast duck and decanter of Amontilado.
.
Is your monocle framed or unframed?
Adrien
13 Jun 10 at 2:18 pm
“a strident shrew of woman with a little brain”
Since a fair whack of Australian womanhood are exactly thus one would surmise she’s popular in that demographic for precisely this reason.
Joseph
13 Jun 10 at 2:26 pm
Sarah and Jools, in a hot tub. Mmmmmm-m-m.
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 3:52 pm
JC
I think you ar confusing the voting intention question with the “who do you think will win?”
The most recent Morgan poll indicates re the latter:
ALP 49.0%
L-NP 33.5%
can’t say 17.5%
In the last month the ALP has dropped 60% to 49% – in the last week 3% from 52 to 49
- the bulk of which has gone to “can’t say”
The betting market av June 11 (implied probabilities)
ALP 63.9%
L-NP 36.1%
The Coalition picked up 3.6% during the week
As DD pointed out, there is a historic component contained in betting odds. The result being a lagged correlaion – the length of the lag is unknown.
It may be a little crude but the betting market seems to broadly track the “who do you think will win” question.
ennui
13 Jun 10 at 4:19 pm
Since a fair whack of Australian womanhood are exactly thus
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Been a while since you got laid ‘ey?
Adrien
13 Jun 10 at 4:27 pm
Ennui:
There are polls which also test the “who do you think will win” point and they show labor as favorite, although not by as much as the betting markets suggest from memory.
The polls are to those that don’t participate a sort of a window to “who do you think will win”.
They aren’t in agreement with the betting markets.
If one took the polls they show the libs now ahead. The betting market shows labor to win.
I think you’re a little confused here and over-intellectualizing a pretty basic point.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 4:28 pm
The question is where the Coalition would be winning the seats they need to form government. I’m not convinced they’ll win any in Melbourne or Sydney. They may even lose some. Mining executives may be stamping their feet and shouting til they’re red in the ace about this RSPT, but I can’t see it eing a vote-changer for anybody. I think voters may punish the ALP for its poor administrative oversight, but not for the stimulus per se. Sure, voters might like budget surplus in principle, but that doesn’t mean a deficit is so overwhelmingly terrifying that they’re going to change votes over it.
THR
13 Jun 10 at 4:44 pm
JC
This arose as the result of the suggestion that betting markets are a better guide than polls.
Essentially what I’m saying is that – to the extent that polls drive the betting market – the primary driver is the “who do you think will win?” question as it is historically seen as a better predicter of election results.
Whatever, it is getting a bit esoteric!
ennui
13 Jun 10 at 5:19 pm
THR – Last night I saw a poll which had the government in the high 30s and the Tories in the low 60s on a two party preferred basis. That’s an awful lot of ground to win back.
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The mining tax, by itself, wouldn’t change my vote. But the Rudd government seems to harbour fascists. I can’t possibly tolerate having the authorities monitor internet browsing habits. Add to that the fact that the ‘education revolution’ has been and the ‘heath revolution’ probably will be a Festival of Trough Born Snouts – fugeddaboutid.
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This guy is so bad I prefer Tony Abbott. That’s really, really bad. Trouble is Abbott’s a half a fascist himself. So the Thought Police are yet another public expenditure we’ll have to like with for a hundred years.
Adrien
13 Jun 10 at 5:21 pm
Adrien, I think the poll to which you refer is a Federal poll for WA. The swing it represents wouldn’t make all that much difference to the ALP, since they’re unpopular in WA to begin with. It might, however, prevent the ALP from dominating the upper house.
The problem is, the Coalition have no policies, and no ideas. They consist entirely of tired has-beens from the Howard-era, of professional seatwarmers and time-servers with an overdeveloped sense of entitlement. As bad as the current ALP government is, the likes of Tanner, McKew, Combet and others are far more talented than any of the useless hacks in the Coalition. My guess is that there’ll be a narrow ALP victory, followed by a night of the long knives, which sees Rudd leave politics. This wouldn’t be a bad outcome, all things considered.
THR
13 Jun 10 at 5:29 pm
THR, last time around labor deflected any policy announcements until the campaign proper and polls did not materially shift against them for this. When labor eventually did, they were Howard lite and still not punished for lack of originality. The libs just need to STFU and they will be OK.
As for McKew you must be kidding, Combet has been a disaster with “fixing” the insulation mess and Tanner is up to his knees with designing the Rudd mess.
DavidJ
13 Jun 10 at 5:42 pm
If Kev Bjelke Chavez does win, he can announce it as a victory for the “true believers” and we’ll all be able to watch THR front and centre, flapping his arms like a seal, weeping with joy.
Infidel Tiger
13 Jun 10 at 5:46 pm
THR:
Tanner’s sins are that he knows exactly what he’s doing but is prepared to sign up to Keveconomics for power reasons.
Mckew is a complete turkey. She has no freaking idea what’s going on other than mindlessly relating the latest ALP talking points like she used with the teleprompter.
The woman is an embarrassment to the ALP media wing. No kidding, even Fatty Jonmes seemed embarrassed every time she opened her big mouth the other night.
Combet is far too angry about his father dying at an early age and seems to requite long term counselling.
jc...
13 Jun 10 at 5:55 pm
THR, last time around labor deflected any policy announcements until the campaign proper and polls did not materially shift against them for this. When labor eventually did, they were Howard lite and still not punished for lack of originality. The libs just need to STFU and they will be OK.
All that’s true, but there was Workchoices to differentiate the parties. The Coalition don’t have anything as substantial as that to offer.
As for talent in the parties – who would you nominate from the Coalition as ‘talented’? Kevin Andrews? Phillip Ruddock? Julie Bishop? Puhleeze.
THR
13 Jun 10 at 5:56 pm
Ennui:
it’s not complex and neither is it too hard to understand.
The polls and the betting markets doing seem to be aligned at the moment.
That’s all I’m saying. OVer doing the analysis stuff isn’t required.
jc...
13 Jun 10 at 5:58 pm
Since a fair whack of Australian womanhood are exactly thus one would surmise she’s popular in that demographic for precisely this reason.
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What’s with the woman-hating, Joseph? To echo Adrien, I take it you get a lot of rejections?
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by the way I don’t agree with the opinion of some that Gillard is unpopular. There’s no evidence for that.
But if she was leader she’d be under more scrutiny. People would probably pay more attention to the failings of the BER program than they do right now, for instance.
daddy dave
13 Jun 10 at 6:00 pm
THR:
You’re right. None of these people are Einsteins.
However the question isn’t about picking the top of the Hardvard class, it’s about picking the least retarded that will cause the least damage for 3 years.
jc...
13 Jun 10 at 6:01 pm
oops harvard…
jc...
13 Jun 10 at 6:02 pm
Yes, all the opposition needs to really do is appear to be a safe pair of hands.
Their policies should be reasonably conservative, be aimed at restoring the budget to surplus, and killing off idiot policies like the internet filter and other big brother policies that this government seems to embrace like a bear and a honeypot. My only fear is that Abbot might like these too.
Now, I don’t believe the average punter cares about a deficit/surplus, but they do care about transparent tax grabs like the RSPT if it appears to kill jobs and super returns.
entropy
13 Jun 10 at 6:19 pm
“What’s with the woman-hating, Joseph? To echo Adrien, I take it you get a lot of rejections?”
Who said anything about woman-hating? And whether or not women reject me (sexually presumably) or no has nothing to do with anything or Gillard and her female supporters unless you think women only exist for one thing. My comments were more to do with what goes on (or not, more pertinently) in women’s minds, not my or anyome else’s interest or otherwise in their bodies.
Joseph
13 Jun 10 at 6:36 pm
Tanner, McKew, Combet and others are far more talented than…
This is THR’s oldest trick. Stretch things out to just three names, add a distinctly incredible et alia and pretend that’s an argument.
Anyone else, THR? Conroy perhaps? The man whose greatest fear is that someone somewhere is looking at boobies on the internet? Anthony Albanese? Peter “Pete the Torch” Garrett? Kevin Rudd (ffs)? Mensa diva Kate Ellis?
Andrew Robb has more ability than all of the abovementioned dopes. Add a (probably unattainable) Treasury-focused Malcolm Turnbull, a switched-on Joe Hockey and Rhodes scholar Tony Abbott and the current Labor government, in comparison, is seen for what it is: a bunch of clueless hacks unfit to be running the Moonee Ponds progress society, let alone the country.
C.L.
13 Jun 10 at 6:45 pm
Andrew Robb has more ability than all of the abovementioned dopes. Add a (probably unattainable) Treasury-focused Malcolm Turnbull, a switched-on Joe Hockey and Rhodes scholar Tony Abbott and the current Labor government, in comparison, is seen for what it is: a bunch of clueless hacks unfit to be running the Moonee Ponds progress society, let alone the country.
I don’t think we need to fear Abbott getting out of hand. He is much more grounded than Rudd and given that if he does win it will be by a small margin he won’t be in any hurry to become grandiose and self-serving. Additionally the liberal tradition tends to preclude the fascist like policies of this government. Adrien is right, this government is now too dangerous, if in their first term they can do so much damage contemplating the damage they could do in two terms is the stuff of nightmares.
What the coalition now needs to do is allow some potential cabinet ministers more time in the spotlight, this will help deflect concerns about Abbott.
The other thing they need to do very quickly is start presenting policies. I suspect their recent silence is because that is exactly what they are doing.
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 6:50 pm
Whoops sorry.
recent silence is because they are preparing policies.
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 6:51 pm
Sarah and Jools, in a hot tub. Mmmmmm-m-m.
Throw in Kate as well.
Look, I don’t subscribe to this view of Gillard as a lezo or quasi-lezo. She strikes me as a healthily hetero, sexy woman. I do think she’s an ideologically-driven bird, though, and would feel threatened in a relationship where the man was in a calling or caper slightly more masculine than hairdressing. Honest opinion. Her mousse hunter ‘partner’ doesn’t threaten to de-Greer her ego.
C.L.
13 Jun 10 at 6:55 pm
Oh this should be hilarious
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 7:01 pm
She strikes me as a healthily hetero, sexy woman.
If you are saying that without beer goggles you are a braver and stronger man than I. I salute you, sir.
Michael Sutcliffe
13 Jun 10 at 7:03 pm
Who said anything about woman-hating?
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I guess I thought that describing a “goodly portion” of Autralian women as ‘strident shrews with little brain’ was a touch mysogynistic.
daddy dave
13 Jun 10 at 7:04 pm
“I guess I thought that describing a “goodly portion” of Autralian women as ’strident shrews with little brain’ was a touch mysogynistic.”
How so? Why mysogynistic as opposed to realistic?
Present your evidence or even argument to the contrary.
Joseph
13 Jun 10 at 7:16 pm
Gillard isn’t bad looking, Michael.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/13/2925732.htm
I’m not going to denounce her as a lesbian gargoyle just because I don’t like her politics.
C.L.
13 Jun 10 at 7:20 pm
Gillard is one of the better women in parliament, particularly in the Labor ranks. Both in brains and looks.
asf
13 Jun 10 at 7:20 pm
ASF:
No she’s not. She’s backed every single loser.. Latham and Rudd, supported fucked up policies… medicare gold and the Ber.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 7:23 pm
Mensa Diva (Kate Ellis). Lol
It’s amazing she can find her way to work each day. Nice legs though.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 7:31 pm
I’m freaking sick and tired of people qualifying that there are smart people in the Labor ranks.
There are but they are incompetent at running the nation’s government. Every single one of them.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 7:34 pm
Present your evidence or even argument to the contrary.
.
Are you serious? If it’s not self-evident then I can’t help you.
daddy dave
13 Jun 10 at 7:36 pm
I find Gillard quite charming and cute.
daddy dave
13 Jun 10 at 7:41 pm
Dad:
I find lots of females charming and cute. however it doesn’t mean I want them to be running a government.
She’s been just as incompetent as the rest of that useless front bench…. in fact other than the death toll in the Lurch/Rudd insulation fiasco, she’s been more damaging than any other minister exception of the little turd.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 7:55 pm
She’s like the cute chick with expensive tastes you just can’t afford.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 7:55 pm
Old Rattlesnake Tanner this morning on Insiders.
“It’s quite possible, given the big gap between us and the Greens and the Liberals in the Senate, we could win an election in the House of Reps with a double dissolution but still not have the numbers in a joint sitting.”
Yea, Lindsay, but go ask your boss why he defined that abominable ETS as the moral issue of our time.
And then explain why it wasn’t moral enough to run a DD on that subject rather than postponing it for 3 years.
JC
13 Jun 10 at 8:08 pm
That was a strange thing for Tanner to say. It amounts to, “If we tried as hard as we could to implement a policy we believe in, it’s possible we might fail. So we’re not going to try.”
daddy dave
13 Jun 10 at 8:12 pm
Whatever it takes to make you feel better about the horse you backed, eh THR? A plague on both their houses rather than facing up to the fact that this is the worst government in Australian history!
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 8:39 pm
JC
A mate of mine reckons Rudd recruited Maxine to make Kate Ellis look brilliant.
Peter Patton
13 Jun 10 at 9:01 pm
Whatever happened to Kerry Nettle? She was hot as.
Joseph
13 Jun 10 at 9:07 pm
There was a product recall at the gorilla suit factory.
Infidel Tiger
13 Jun 10 at 9:09 pm
Her replacement Sara Hanson-Young was selected from the same sheltered workshop. I have a theory on why highly intelligent women are so unlikely to be left-wing, but it will have to wait.
Peter Patton
13 Jun 10 at 9:11 pm
I have a theory on why highly intelligent women are so unlikely to be left-wing, but it will have to wait.
You mean you have a hypothesis. What was that about intelligence? If highly intelligent women had any intelligence they’d be over that left right shite.
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 9:22 pm
Ah, actually no. Allow ME to continue being the keeper of what I mean. As for your own definition of intelligence requiring ‘being over that left right shite,’ I have another theory….
Were you in the same classes as Kate Ellis?
Peter Patton
13 Jun 10 at 9:27 pm
No Kerry Nettle had Spanish good looks and balls. She heckled George Bush in the Australian Parliament. Not many Australians let alone MPs would have the guts to do that to a visiting US President. Sexy beast.
Joseph
13 Jun 10 at 9:35 pm
Kate Ellis, Julia G and Palin. In a swimming pool. Mmmm-m-mmmm-mmmmmm….
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 9:45 pm
What are you people smoking?
Michael Sutcliffe
13 Jun 10 at 9:48 pm
Joseph
What complete brain-dead bull-fuck. The definition of Australian is to tell septic tanks to get a dead dog up them.
It is also the definition of Australian to be mindful of our geopolitical and diplomatic vulnerabilities.
The true Aussie knows s/he has both hats to wear, and has been fully educated as to where and when to which or both of those hats.
Peter Patton
13 Jun 10 at 9:48 pm
She must have a damn fine mustache!
Peter Patton
13 Jun 10 at 9:53 pm
The March issue of the peer-reviewed Social Psychology Quarterly, a journal of the American Sociological Association, will contain an article entitled “Why Liberals and Atheists are More Intelligent.” Though certain to cause some outrage, the investigator has collected some statistically significant IQ evidence that supports his theory.
—
There is a big error with the above analysis. Go find it Mr. Patton.
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 9:56 pm
So is it true that Nettle has laid on more balls than Conchita Martínez?
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 9:59 pm
Women of Kerry Nettle’s colouring often do have a discernible moustache. That doesn’t detract one iota from their femininity and sexual attractiveness. It can add to it.
Joseph
13 Jun 10 at 9:59 pm
I must admit, I hate it when I get Nettles on my balls.
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 9:59 pm
Just checked Wiki and I must protest that you arseholes are ruining my Palin/Ellis/Gillard FFFM fantasy. If Marr looks like the malicious, dessicated “cat’s bum moue” spinster running the primary school library, Nettle looks like her assistant on exchange from the Isle of Lesbos:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Nettle
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 10:05 pm
How about a threesome with Kerry and Julia? That must rock Marr’s left-wing fantasy world!?
Oh, I forgot, he’s gayer than a tree full of monkeys on laughing gas!
Michael Sutcliffe
13 Jun 10 at 10:12 pm
Well if Hansen took the photos, even Marr might buy a print or two!
Ev630
13 Jun 10 at 10:16 pm
John H I read a decent counter to that study. What they did was populate a large part of their cohort with social conservatives from rural areas and compared them to a cohort that you would find in liberal Connecticut.
In other words they fucked it up, possibly deliberately so.
They left out the free market types such as libertarians or conservative-libertarians and they also left out the ghetto dwelling left supporters.
jC
13 Jun 10 at 11:00 pm
Hey guys, why don’t you knock it off, as it’s becoming a little low rent.
[Thank you for that, JC. You'll all notice a few edits have occured. Sinc]
jC
13 Jun 10 at 11:09 pm
In other words they fucked it up, possibly deliberately so.
Dude, one of the authors was a libertarian! I’ve seen other studies which tend to draw the same conclusion but the variances are too small to constitute Oomph! It don’t matter, trying to determine a person’s intelligence on the basis of their political or religious beliefs is just naive. Just as Richard Dawkins not so quietly suggesting that religious belief must be indicative of some cognitive deficit. Yeah, Einstein believed in God the idiot. Dawkins, that man who brainwashed a whole generation into that Selfish Gene crap, never taken seriously about the geneticists but that didn’t stop a whole lot of very smart people embracing his bollocks. Nor does intelligence stop people embracing idiotic ideas. It takes hard work, no matter how smart you are. Intelligence does not protect us from stupidity, there is no “intelligence” or “rationality” module. Just people who believe that.
The big problem with that study was that the authors asked, didn’t test the subjects about the political preferences. Doh!
Additionally, above 120 iq tends to become increasingly problematic. After all, Feynman had an IQ of 124 yet was regarded as one of the most important post WW2 theoretical physicists. Yah, there is a reason his iq was relatively parlous considering his contribution but I aint telling.
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 11:19 pm
Whatever it takes to make you feel better about the horse you backed, eh THR? A plague on both their houses rather than facing up to the fact that this is the worst government in Australian history!
Well, a couple of points are in order.
Firstly, I didn’t ‘back’ this horse. I’ve been critical without being hysterical.
Secondly, only a mentally retarded person of any stripe, much less a libertarian, could possibly think that Abbott would make a good PM, or that the current batch of degenerates in the Coalition would form a good government. I suspect a number of people here know that already, but are too caught up in anti-Rudd schahdenfreude to think through the consequences.
Finally, this government is not, by a long shot, the ‘worst in Australia’s history’. Fraser comes much closer, and, in fact, Howard after 2000 could be a contender, with particular reference to the Workchoices and pork-barrel years of 2004 onwards. Rudd is an amateur fuck up and sociopath compared to that era of war-mongering and brown-nosing.
THR
13 Jun 10 at 11:26 pm
John:
I’m only going from recollection now about the criticisms of the study, but from what I understood they seemed to have tabled all right wingers in one group while leaving out the underclass that votes left.
jC
13 Jun 10 at 11:26 pm
JC,
That could well be another error. Be careful with social psychology studies, it is a minefield of conceptual traps. Psychology is a litany of failed concepts and hypotheses. Not surprising, human behavior is the most complex thing we know of yet sooo many people think they have the lowdown on it.
John H.
13 Jun 10 at 11:37 pm
“…without being hysterical.”
Um:
“Secondly, only a mentally retarded person of any stripe, much less a libertarian, could possibly think that Abbott would make a good PM, or that the current batch of degenerates in the Coalition would form a good government.”
THR, you’ve rarely criticised Kev Bjelke-Rudd’s ‘government’ and when you have you’ve generally been dragged into it. You’ve had little to say about the Fred Nile campaigns against booze, ciggies, boobies or Conroy’s Himmler policy on the internet. You also defended the insulation debacle.
There is no question now that the Rudd government is the worst – certainly in the post-WWII era.
C.L.
14 Jun 10 at 1:00 am
Finally, this government is not, by a long shot, the ‘worst in Australia’s history’. Fraser comes much closer, and, in fact, Howard after 2000 could be a contender, with particular reference to the Workchoices and pork-barrel years of 2004 onwards. Rudd is an amateur fuck up and sociopath compared to that era of war-mongering and brown-nosing.
Pop goes your credibility, right there.
Ev630
14 Jun 10 at 1:22 am
Be careful with social psychology studies, it is a minefield of conceptual traps. Psychology is a litany of failed concepts and hypotheses.
.
very true. There have been several studies purporting to show that left-wingers are smarter than right-wingers. I read an excellent demolition of the whole research somewhere. Will hunt around for it.
daddy dave
14 Jun 10 at 7:56 am
Rudd’s isn’t the worst government. That honour still belongs to Whitlam. However, Fraser must be happy he is no longer the PM of the second worst.
Entropy
14 Jun 10 at 8:48 am
I was wondering what the latest newspoll was saying, and have discovered there isn’t one this weekend. So I think we can expect a flurry of big announcements on Wednesday and Thursday, in an attempt to influence the outcome. From Rudd especially, but Abbott could decide to go all presidential and call a resource tax summit.
Entropy
14 Jun 10 at 9:28 am
Alan Kohler talks of the huge difference between Hawke and Rudd governments, and pretty much makes sense, I think:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/14/2926133.htm?site=thedrum
steve from brisbane
14 Jun 10 at 9:50 am
I was wondering what the latest newspoll was saying, and have discovered there isn’t one this weekend.
.
A national Newspoll comes out every two weeks in non-campaign times.
daddy dave
14 Jun 10 at 9:52 am
Looks like Rudd’s “compassion” has now killed a total of 171 illegal immigrants.
Up to 12 asylum-seekers are believed to have drowned during a failed attempt to reach Australia from Indonesia, including at least two Sri Lankans from the Merak boat intercepted last year at Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s request.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/1069080/12-boat-people-drown-on-way-to-australia
Michael Fisk
14 Jun 10 at 11:51 am
I used to think it was okay they were boating down, however most of these boats have kids on them and now I’m not so sure.
In any event The Little Turd needs to be measured the standards he himself set in that he was going to be more humane than Howard and stop the boats. There are a record number of people in detention camps and the boats keep on coming.
He’s been a total failure. A complete miserable failure.
The deafening silence of the David Marr’s is…. oh deafening.
j
14 Jun 10 at 11:57 am
I used to think it was okay they were boating down, however most of these boats have kids on them and now I’m not so sure.
In any event The Little Turd needs to be measured the standards he himself set in that he was going to be more humane than Howard and stop the boats. There are a record number of people in detention camps and the boats keep on coming.
He’s been a total failure. A complete miserable failure.
The deafening silence of the David Marr’s is…. oh deafenin
Jc
14 Jun 10 at 11:57 am
There was a recent study that showed that liberals in the US were dumbfucks. They got simple economic questions wrong when the outcome went against their political views. The study proves my theory that though some lefties seem intelligent on the surface, they have no wisdom. They spend far too much time building elaborate superstructures that seem pretty, but which crumble through a basic premise being wrong.
The perfect examples are the warmenist scientists who are no doubt intelligent bods, but seem to have enjoyed the complexity of their computer modelling a little too much whilst failing to explain why it was hotter in the 14th century than now.
Rococo Liberal
14 Jun 10 at 12:06 pm
The “compassionate” Rudd government boat policy death toll is now 179. There seems to be a view on the David Marr left that this doesn’t matter too much because, after all, they’re only desperate non-whites.
C.L.
14 Jun 10 at 12:29 pm
There seems to be a view on the David Marr left that this doesn’t matter too much because, after all, they’re only desperate non-whites.
So Poseidon-Rudd now controls the high seas? And such is CL’s contempt for darkies, they have no agency of their own whatsoever, and will involuntarily risk their lives based on the tone of Rudd’s voice on any given day.
It’s this sort of sleazy mud-slinging that completely effaces the histrionic ‘worst government ever’ rhetoric.
THR
14 Jun 10 at 1:53 pm
That they are coming precisely because of Rudd’s statements and policy is a proven fact.
179 people dead.
Plus the four insulation workers; that gives a Rudd government death toll of 183 people.
Naturally, the left isn’t outraged.
C.L.
14 Jun 10 at 2:17 pm
Rudd needs men like you THR. You’re probably the only bloke left in Australia who’d take a bullet for him. You’re one staunch comrade.
Infidel Tiger
14 Jun 10 at 2:26 pm
Of course the left isn’t outraged. They’re really only concerned with money when it comes down to it. They support Rudd etc. because Rudd gives them access to other people’s money.
The “my-fair-share-tax” is a case in point.
Jc
14 Jun 10 at 2:33 pm
THR’s (and the left’s) hypocrisy knows no bounds. Remember, THR, the internet is forever.
Ev630
14 Jun 10 at 4:21 pm
You’re a dopey fellow, Ev. Perhaps your ‘insights’ would be more relevant to Bolt’s blog, or to a lavatory wall.
THR
14 Jun 10 at 4:25 pm
EV
THR is a good guy. I think with a little time he could be convinced that his economics my not work as he thinks it does and he’ll turn.
Most of us are former lefties and act like reformed smokers.
Jc
14 Jun 10 at 4:26 pm
As a Christopher Hitchens-style Humanist Hawk, I’m yet to be convinced about THR, JC.
Lavatory walls, THR? Then perhaps I could write execrable material like this:
“So Poseidon-Rudd now controls the high seas? And such is CL’s contempt for darkies, they have no agency of their own whatsoever, and will involuntarily risk their lives based on the tone of Rudd’s voice on any given day.”
Ev630
14 Jun 10 at 5:31 pm
It’s CL, among others, who has a loopy theory of causality in which asylum seekers have no agency whatsoever. It’s as if Rudd summons would-be refugees to the ocean like so many lemmings, and bears sole moral responsibility for their fate. Such a view betrays obvious contempt for the asylum seekers themselves, and is one of the more ridiculous anti-ALP smear campaigns.
THR
14 Jun 10 at 5:38 pm
Well CL is perhaps too far to one side, while you are too far to the other.
What we can all agree on though is that the Rudd government policy is an abject failure and has resulted in this incredible spike in human traffic.
Ev630
14 Jun 10 at 5:39 pm
I read this on another blog discussing the incompetent Dr. Patel.
The saga of Dr. Jayant Patel is that of a man who concealed his incompetence by never staying in one place long enough for consequences to catch up to him. But though he buried his true track record, Patel took care to bring with him enough social proof to persuade a new set of victims to trust him. As long as he could stay one step ahead, he was gold. It wasn’t as if nobody suspected Patel wasn’t all he claimed to be. One gets the sense that many of his patients had doubts even as they looked up to him from the operating table, but never enough to challenge him openly; to impel them to say the one thing that would have saved them: ‘I don’t want this doctor, get me another’. And yet the truth was that he was probably trying; trying hard to be a doctor. One of the charges against him was that he treated patients that’s weren’t even his. Maybe he figured he needed practice. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. But that didn’t help him because the basic problem was that Patel was incompetent. He should have been something else. And getting an incompetent to try harder only gets you more incompetence.
It reminds me of Rudd. They say he gets around 4 hours sleep a day because he works hard. Working hard isn’t the problem. The problem is that he’s a thorough incompetent and even though he works hard it doesn’t make him less incompetent.
He’s simply not up to it.
Jc
14 Jun 10 at 5:53 pm
RL talks of Gillard
“Men hate her because she is a she is a strident shrew of woman with a little brain and women hate her for the same reason.”
So why does RL hate Gillard?
rog
14 Jun 10 at 6:08 pm
“hey say he gets around 4 hours sleep a day because he works hard. Working hard isn’t the problem. The problem is that he’s a thorough incompetent and even though he works hard it doesn’t make him less incompetent.”
Hey jc it sounds like you!
jc for PM (cant imagine him in budgie smugglers tho)
rog
14 Jun 10 at 6:10 pm
So why does RL hate Gillard?
This is good time then to self evaluate and reflect, Wodge.
You could also ask why do people dislike you. It certainly can’t be because of your winsome personality or anything original you have to say, as you don’t have anything to say that is.
Lets see some public refection from you, Wodgie.
Jc
14 Jun 10 at 6:12 pm
Rococo Liberal says
“There was a recent study that showed that liberals in the US were dumbfucks.”
and then proves the point
rog
14 Jun 10 at 6:12 pm
I dont have time for self reflection jc, that is your domain
rog
14 Jun 10 at 6:13 pm
Wodgie,
You really shouldn’t be judging people’s intelligence. Now back the cellar in that warm spot beside the boiler and please lock the door.
Jc
14 Jun 10 at 6:15 pm