I don’t think so. The two measures that the RBA look at to measure so-called underlying inflation are both below three percent (they look at the average of the two). While the headline measure is a tad above three percent (probably caused by the tobacco tax hike) and trending up, I suspect the RBA will hold off for another month.
Sinkers was certain they would last week.
Actually the RBA look at the annualised average of the two figures to give them a way of looking at current inflationary pressures.
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 1:28 pm
Sinkers was certain they would last week.
Link to it and show us the evidence, homes.
JC
28 Jul 10 at 1:32 pm
under his very silly debt matters garbage Sinmkers said this
I can’t see how the RBA will avoid a rate rise in early August. The argument for a rate rise is stronger now than it was in November 2007.
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 1:46 pm
They’be be stupid to do so. When you look around the world a little extra inflation will have plenty of developed countries green with envy.
Yes, Sinclair did say that. While everyone makes mistakes. Homer is in a whole class of his own when it comes to ridiculous statements.
pedro
28 Jul 10 at 1:53 pm
That’s right, Pedro. According to Homer, Sinc deserves capital punishment because he’s stretched out his prediction by another month.
OMG I can’t believe Sinc has done that either. How shocking. How terrifying.
JC
28 Jul 10 at 1:56 pm
Pedro – why would anybody be wishing for inflation?
TerjeP
28 Jul 10 at 2:04 pm
Japan is, Terje.
JC
28 Jul 10 at 2:14 pm
oh Pedro,
Whether it be national accounts, budget outcomes, CPI results Sinkers is in a league of his own.
Terje,
practically every Western country is experiencing deflation once adjustment of indices etc is taken into account.
given the huge output gaps in all counties targeting higher inflation is quite worthwhile as deflation is much worse than inflation and much much harder to counter once in than inflation.
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 2:41 pm
Homer:
How do you handle deflation in the technology sector? Do you go to a tech store and demand they charge you a higher price?
JC
28 Jul 10 at 2:43 pm
That isn’t the problem.
it would be nice if just once you could actually try and understand a subject before commenting
As Japan is finding out once you get deflation it is very hard to get rid of it.
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 2:48 pm
it would be nice if just once you could actually try and understand a subject before commenting
You mean like looking up Urban Dictionary to find out the meaning of skanke ho?
jtfsoon
28 Jul 10 at 2:53 pm
Pedro – not a mistake. My opinion at the time.
Sinclair Davidson
28 Jul 10 at 3:02 pm
Homer:
Japan’s problem is no growth and too much debt at the government level because they followed Keynesian policy through the 90′s and as a result totally and completely rooted their economy to the point where they will eventually default on 230% debt to GDP.
Lack of inflation is the least of their problems, you numbnut.
JC
28 Jul 10 at 3:22 pm
I should also add that Homer can’t tell the difference between ‘should’ and ‘will’.
Sinclair Davidson
28 Jul 10 at 3:27 pm
Tony Abbott: Damn it! Damn it! Damn it!
Adrien
28 Jul 10 at 3:27 pm
English is like his 4th language, Sinc, after Eastwoodian, German and Taiwanese. He can’t help it
jtfsoon
28 Jul 10 at 3:28 pm
Don’t think so, Adrien. Tone has a very big mortgage of his own and would feel it far more than most.
Infidel Tiger
28 Jul 10 at 3:29 pm
What was it that Keynes said? “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
Homer, take note.
Andrew Reynolds
28 Jul 10 at 3:30 pm
Sinkers only an idiot would put should not knowing how underlying inflation would turn out unless they were expecting a high underlying figure.
No Forrest just because you lie about Japanese economic policy doesn’t mean it happened.
They stimulated and the economy recovered but they immediately had fiscal cuts that caused a recession.
Posen has proven this easily.
Urban dictionary had FIVE definitions of the term when Latham used it idiot
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 3:35 pm
Homer – you’ve been calling me an idiot for years. Now, today, all of a sudden, you think you have proof?
Sinclair Davidson
28 Jul 10 at 3:37 pm
So you are confirming you had no idea of how the underlying rate would be!
Actually Sinkers I thought you were using the latter excuse
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 3:38 pm
I have no expectation about the RBA underlying rate. This is the atheoretic measure they choose to employ, not me.
Sinclair Davidson
28 Jul 10 at 3:43 pm
by the way I do not recall calling you an idiot,
unlike Forrest or Mark you do know what you are usually talking about so you do know when something is wrong like say the Japanese indulged in Keynesian policy throughout the 90s.
If you had no idea of what underlying inflation would be then you are a fool for saying the RBA should raise rates
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 4:16 pm
by the way I do not recall calling you an idiot
Sinkers only an idiot would …
Short term memory problem, Homes?
jtfsoon
28 Jul 10 at 4:19 pm
I know this has been speculated upon before, but I am just about convinced that Homer is a bot.
It has certain key phrases which it blends with key words from the post to which it is reacting and put it all together into an almost (but not quite) intelligible) sentence. Really very clever.
ken n
28 Jul 10 at 4:20 pm
Why would they hold off for another month?
We will not know about inflationary pressures for another three months.
The only information we wil get in between then is whether partial indicators are showing a slowing in the economy.
Are you expecting some booming figures from retail trade, housing etc?
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 4:21 pm
Statman you didn’t read the sentence did you ?
Are you sure you went through primary school?
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 4:22 pm
Yes Homes, i went through primary school, but unlike you i didn’t have John Faulkner as my teacher
jtfsoon
28 Jul 10 at 4:23 pm
Statman you didn’t read the sentence did you ?
Are you sure you went through primary school?
randomly generated word strings?
Or a carefully crafted analysis by a human?
We have a new game we can play. Is it a….
BOT OR NOT?
daddy dave
28 Jul 10 at 4:28 pm
The question we have to ask ourselves is whether Homer passes the Turing Test for human intelligence.
daddy dave
28 Jul 10 at 4:30 pm
you didn’t read the sentence at all Statman and so made a complete goose of yourself ,not to mention I had already mentioned above what i thought Sinkers must have thought.
No john says you were there with the rest of the Catallaxy crew
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 5:02 pm
daddy dave,
A bot would attempt to follow the usual rules of grammar and syntax and would also have access to a decent dictionary, so would not make statements like, for example, “…you are confirming you had no idea of how the underlying rate would be!” (emphasis mine).
As a result, I plump for “not”, no matter how much I may disagree with him.
Andrew Reynolds
28 Jul 10 at 5:47 pm
Homer;
You’re always taking Posen out of the closet whenever Japan’s disastrous decade of experimentation with Keynesian voodoo comes up. Give it up, as it isn’t working.
We know that Japan’s infrastructure spending went through the roof during that time to the extent that there’s no unpaved road or alleyway left and there are two bridges when only one is required.
Their 50 billion airport is a financial disaster.
We also know that at no time did Japan’s unemployment rate go much higher than around 5% which shows the enormous debt they accumulated wasn’t as a result of the naturally occurring stabilizers doing their work. The jobless rate simply didn’t go up far enough for that to happen.
That money was wasted on stupid projects that were only on a more massive scale than our Lurch/Rudd insulation fiasco and the Gillrudd School dunny disaster. That’s all.
They stimulated and the economy recovered but they immediately had fiscal cuts that caused a recession.
Posen has proven this easily.
Yea they stopped it because their debt position wouldn’t let them continue. Their Keynesian experiment hit a tree… A big one.
The only thing Posen has proven is that he can accumulate deadbeats like you into believing his tripe. That’s all he’s done.
All you’ve done is go shopping for a like minded idiot that agrees with your stupid view and post his name as a voice of authority. You dope. Go away and stop “botting” the site.
JC
28 Jul 10 at 5:53 pm
Forest you are an idiot you will always be an idiot and thanks for showing us why
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
28 Jul 10 at 6:06 pm
I guess in that bizarro world of yours rationality looks that way, Homer.
Stop botting the site.
JC
28 Jul 10 at 6:09 pm
Andrew – I think it’s still in beta. A lot of work to be done.
Perhaps the bad grammar is a feature not a bug?
ken n
28 Jul 10 at 6:09 pm
Homer is obviously a Microsoft product
jtfsoon
28 Jul 10 at 6:14 pm
Nah, he’s the iphone 4 of spambots. The problem is how he’s gripping himself. Perhaps that also explains the blind devotion to the ALP.
pedro
29 Jul 10 at 8:27 am
Forrest you are first class example of a clod who does no reading on a subject and then spews ignorance out.Adam Posen has conclusively showed slow growth bred debt in Japan.
It happens everywhere.
Catallaxian crackpots love debt because their retarded theories bring no growth at all as we see in Ireland or the Baltic countries who stupidly implemented polices Catalaxians approve of.
they is why they ignore these counties.
They have to !
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
29 Jul 10 at 8:44 am
Mankiw agrees with us. Stiglitz agress the US recovery will be long and slow.
.
29 Jul 10 at 9:08 am
Evidence from Blinder and Zandi the stimulus saved the US from a depression.
I actually said the US recovery would be long and slow because the stimulus was to small, contained too much of tax cuts and too little to help states.
They are now cutting spending unlike in previpous recessions come recoveries
It is amazing how Catallaxians can try to change history with a stright face
Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop
29 Jul 10 at 9:13 am