The Greens Adam Bandt won the seat of Melbourne with Liberal party preferences. The Liberal party how-to-vote card put Bandt at 6 above Labor’s candidate Cath Bowtell at 7.
Bandt received 26,420 first preference votes, Bowtell 28,795 and the Liberal’s Simon Olsen 15,059.
A similar story can be seen in the Tasmanian seat of Denison. Here Labor’s Jackson received 19,985 votes, Andrew Wilke 12,071 and Liberal Cameron Simpkins 12,270. The Liberal how-to-vote card had Wilke at 2 and Jackson at 3.
These sensible recommendations appear to have been crucial in allowing the Coalition to win more seats than Labor.
With postals flowing to the Coalition, I predict the Coalition will end up with 73 seats, Labor 72, independents 5. However, there is a chance that Corangamite might fall to the Liberals which would give it 74 seats, Labor 71 and 5 independents.
These are the most probable results and would give Tony Abbott the advantage in taking Government.
If so, the Coalition will have been put across the line by Tasmanian and Victorian voters.
(Votes shown above are sourced from the AEC website this morning)
So how many seats were decided on first prefs alone?
What you’re descriing here is hardly unique – it’s called preferential voting in a marginal seat.
I believe it’s enough to thank the voters of Melbourne, which has been done well and truly, and is all anyone ever does.
FDB
25 Aug 10 at 8:05 am
Why should he? The Coalition voters should than Adam Bandt more like!
Peter Patton
25 Aug 10 at 8:11 am
“What you’re descriing here is hardly unique – it’s called preferential voting in a marginal seat.”
It is unusual for major party preferences to be distributed, though it happened in a few places this time.
Andrew Norton
25 Aug 10 at 9:01 am
If the coalition forms government then we better hope that they get to 74 seats and don’t have to rely to much on bob Katter. Actually they would probably be better relying on Andrew Wilkie, who’s politics seem to be not that far from Malcolm Turnbull.
Steve Edney
25 Aug 10 at 9:13 am
So essentially, Bandt should thank coalition voters for not voting ALP. Umm… okay… why?
FDB
25 Aug 10 at 9:14 am
Is it so hard to thank Coalition voters? It seems so.
dover_beach
25 Aug 10 at 9:18 am
Not so hard, apparently, as to give credit where it’s actually due for winning a federal lower house seat.
No, no, of course… the result in my electorate was thanks not to a brilliantly run campaign, tens of thousands of volunteer hours, and the appeal to the electorate of the Greens’ policies and Bandt’s personal qualities. Oh no. It was thanks to the rump of conservatives still living here and how they directed their second preferences.
FDB
25 Aug 10 at 9:25 am
Excellent article by Bolt: The Greens are Labor’s One Nation.
In short, he argues that Labor have not challenge the Greens at all, instead allowing them to grow stronger, because they figured that they weren’t a threat.
But Bolt says that they’re growing powerful and becoming a threat to Labor, taking seats in both houses from Labor, and Labor now needs to take them on.
daddy dave
25 Aug 10 at 9:28 am
The Coalition understood Labor’s problem before Labor did, which is why they preferenced Green and a green independent candidate in those seats.
Coalition to Labor (while figuring out preferences):
“Oh you like your new friends and want to see more of them? Here. Let us help with that!”
daddy dave
25 Aug 10 at 9:31 am
I agree Samuel. In his victory speech Adam Bandt thanked the ALP candidate, and didn’t thank the Liberal candidate at all! Sounds like he only cares about one side of his electorate – the left.
TimT
25 Aug 10 at 9:36 am
FFS guys – the winner in a 2-horse race thanks the voters of the electorate (done), their main opponent (done) and their campaign team (done).
THAT IS WHAT ALWAYS HAPPENS.
This whining is just pathetic.
FDB
25 Aug 10 at 9:42 am
Not so hard, apparently, as to give credit where it’s actually due for winning a federal lower house seat.
Did I deny any credit to Brandt and his Party, FDB? Still, the facts are that the ALP beat the Greens on first preferences and wouldn’t have defeated the ALP without Coalition preferences. Credit where its due.
dover_beach
25 Aug 10 at 9:48 am
Basically, the Greens nearly won the first preference count, and would have been the second preference for virtually every other voter – ALP and Liberal.
The fact is that by any interpretation of our preferential system, he’s the electorate’s preferred cantidate.
FDB
25 Aug 10 at 9:50 am
the winner in a 2-horse race
It wasn’t a 2-horse race, and if it was the ALP would have one by half a head.
dover_beach
25 Aug 10 at 9:52 am
Correction: won, not one.
dover_beach
25 Aug 10 at 9:52 am
The only reason Liberal voters would have preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor, apart from the how-to-vote cards, is calculated spite.
dover_beach
25 Aug 10 at 9:56 am
If so, the Coalition will have been put across the line by Tasmanian and Victorian voters.
Huh??? These inbred freaks delivered the ALP more seats than 2007. In a fair world we’d nuke them and poison their water supply.
Infidel Tiger
25 Aug 10 at 10:32 am
“The only reason Liberal voters would have preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor, apart from the how-to-vote cards, is calculated spite.”
Have you forgotten Liberals for Forests? The “doctors’ wives”?
Jarrah
25 Aug 10 at 10:55 am
“This whining is just pathetic.”
Yes FDB your maoning is rather sad. But as a facist greeny we expect that from you
Rococo Liberal
25 Aug 10 at 11:08 am
Excellent article by Bolt: The Greens are Labor’s One Nation.
I pointed this out last week. Rudd and Gillard (fatso Richardson and others) are responsible for the rise of this fascist political party. Keating might have changed direction if he was in office during the warmist religious scare – pounding carbon mania as a pointless, luxurious bit of bourgeois nonsense. But not Kev and Julia. They sought to cash in by raising the credibility of the cult. By doing so, they’ve shot themselves in the foot and wrecked stable government itself.
C.L.
25 Aug 10 at 11:16 am
adam made out like a bandit
jtfsoon
25 Aug 10 at 11:38 am
“Have you forgotten Liberals for Forests. The “doctors’ wives”?”
Talking of Liberals for Forests, I note that the LDP #1 senate candidate was an ex Liberals for Forests candidate.
Steve Edney
25 Aug 10 at 11:50 am
We need more doctors wives!
.
25 Aug 10 at 11:53 am
Liberals against Brazilians!
jtfsoon
25 Aug 10 at 11:56 am
Splitters – Liberals for Brazilians!
Infidel Tiger
25 Aug 10 at 12:00 pm
It’s customary in election speeches to acknowledge all voters – ie, elected PM’s promise to ‘govern for all Australians, not just those who elected me’. Bandt acknowledging coalition voters/the coalition candidate seems analogous.
Indeed Saturday was a night of very strange speeches; Gillard’s speech seemed almost entirely aimed at the ALP faithful and of course the independents who she wanted to toady up to. Meanwhile, Bob Brown made a bizarre non-sequitur about a ‘baby whale’ being born. Apparently the Greens are a baby whale?
TimT
25 Aug 10 at 12:50 pm
Why is Bandt hanging around with the Indeps? He’s not an indep , he’s a gangrene.
The others should tell him to get lost and hang around with Milne etc which is where he belongs.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/independents-poll-warning-to-the-prime-minister-and-tony-abbott/story-fn59niix-1225909848288
JC
25 Aug 10 at 1:52 pm
Did I deny any credit to Brandt and his Party, FDB? Still, the facts are that the ALP beat the Greens on first preferences and wouldn’t have defeated the ALP without Coalition preferences. Credit where its due.
The Liberals did a good thing. It’s about time labor stopped playing games. In fact the libs ought to preference the Gangrenes before lab in every seat.
JC
25 Aug 10 at 1:54 pm
Bandt has not mentioned Brown in any of the interviews I have seen. He did not pay tribute to Brown on election night.
The only Green issue on Bandt’s list is climate change and it comes third, after redistribution and same sex marriage.
Clearly the Greens are moving left – well to the left of the ALP – and I wonder how the Brown loving middle class supporters will like it.
My guess is that we have seen the Green’s apogee.
Though come to think of it, that’s not true if we use the strict meaning of the term – “furthest from earth”.
ken n
25 Aug 10 at 1:54 pm
Adam Bandit and his fellow Greens all seem to look alike
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/07/23/194091_opinion.html
jtfsoon
25 Aug 10 at 1:56 pm
Nice
Adam Bandit is another Slater and Gordon alumni and was concerned about ‘outworkers’. i.e. he wants to help poor people by making them unemployed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Bandt
Adam Bandt is an industrial and public interest lawyer living in Parkville. He was previously a partner at Slater and Gordon and has a PhD in Law and Politics from Monash University. As a student, Bandt was an active campaigner for higher living allowances for students and free education. He was also president of the student union.[2] He is a strong defender of gay rights, and has openly stated that he will vote to legalise gay marriage.[3]
Bandt has written on links between anti-terror legislation and labour laws[4] and worked on issues facing outworkers[5] in the textiles industry.
jtfsoon
25 Aug 10 at 1:59 pm
Ken
If Bandt didn’t mention him, it was just an omission. After all Brown, was next to him wearing a big stupid smile on his face of a person satisfied with life.
Brown endorsed Happy Hamilton after all, so I couldn’t imagine these two being at odds about anything.
As for the middle class not being sure about the Greens hard left policies.
Honest to goodness, you’d be surprised at the number of people I know that are middle class and hold far left wing views and are happy like pigs in shit to votes for the Gangrenes for that very reason.
JC
25 Aug 10 at 1:59 pm
That’s only because they’ve always been able to cognitively separate their wealth from their sanctimony, JC. Start stripping them of their cash and they’ll change their tune very smartly.
C.L.
25 Aug 10 at 2:01 pm
Adam Bandit and his fellow Greens all seem to look alike
It’s like the rise of the angry betas.
JC
25 Aug 10 at 2:02 pm
That’s only because they’ve always been able to cognitively separate their wealth from their sanctimony, JC.
Better 1/2 buddies, CL. I actually egg some of them on.
JC
25 Aug 10 at 2:05 pm
There’s something to be said for giving Australians the Green agenda good and hard. Close down a few power stations, bring on the brown-outs, ban the 4WDs, increase fuel excises, increase the taxes, ban fishing, compulsorily acquire cattle stations – the whole nine yards. I give the Greens one term before they’re thrown out permanently. It might be a very good investment, long-term.
C.L.
25 Aug 10 at 2:11 pm
How about we conduct that experiment in Victoria and Tasmania and the rest of us can watch and observe.
Infidel Tiger
25 Aug 10 at 2:13 pm
Adam Bandit and his fellow Greens all seem to look alike…
Greens are the ones who are in love with lefty policies of ‘diversity’ and ‘tolerance’ and ‘inclusion’, but every single one of their ads I’ve seen has featured pasty-faced white boys and girls.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg4OdpgZIqU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Us6LZ75z0A&feature=channel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnNmt6zsVCw
I don’t even normally use the term ‘white’ in relation to ethnicitiy/nationality; it’s a lefty cliche. But the Greens do. You would have thought they would have been aware of this in their ads.
The whole tone of these ads is the establishment being condescending to people who aren’t members of the establishment, and feeling good about it. No thanks.
TimT
25 Aug 10 at 2:14 pm
TimT:
“Apparently the Greens are a baby whale?”
No, the Greens are the afterbirth.
boy on a bike
25 Aug 10 at 2:16 pm
Placentral Government?
TimT
25 Aug 10 at 2:18 pm
Here’s an interesting conundrum for the Greens:
Those airy-fairy types seem to like eating human afterbirth as some sort of post-birth ceremony.
However, they object to the Japs eating whale meat.
Would they celebrate the birth of a whale by eating whale afterbirth?
boy on a bike
25 Aug 10 at 2:25 pm
There’s something to be said for giving Australians the Green agenda good and hard. Close down a few power stations, bring on the brown-outs, ban the 4WDs, increase fuel excises, increase the taxes, ban fishing, compulsorily acquire cattle stations – the whole nine yards. I give the Greens one term before they’re thrown out permanently. It might be a very good investment, long-term.
That’s what I’ve been saying… Fleeced and a few other threatened me with traumatic violence for suggesting it . lol
JC
25 Aug 10 at 2:26 pm
The Greens really do look alike:
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_02/generals200707_800x545.jpg
Infidel Tiger
25 Aug 10 at 2:28 pm
Thanks, BOAB. I just had lunch.
C.L.
25 Aug 10 at 2:30 pm
Anyone seen this? It was on Blair’s site. Side splitting funny.
The wankers party (the greens) since 1972.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH_MBwQhGgA&feature=player_embedded
I think Bandt even does a cameo as the Melbourne dude.
JC
25 Aug 10 at 2:43 pm
Sushi?
boy on a bike
25 Aug 10 at 2:45 pm
You’re welcome Adam.
So we’ll have Abbott as PM with the Greens holding the Upper House balance of power. What a lark!
If that’s the case methinks Abbott’ll get real busy and quick.
Adrien
25 Aug 10 at 2:47 pm
In the interest of being homophobic rednecks can we just start referring to the member for Melbourne as “A. Bandit”?
Yobbo
25 Aug 10 at 4:00 pm
That would be cheeky.
TimT
25 Aug 10 at 4:07 pm
“The Coalition understood Labor’s problem before Labor did, which is why they preferenced Green and a green independent candidate in those seats.”
I think your read too much into this. They preferenced Greens ahead of ALP because ALP are their main rivals. As simple as this.
Boris
25 Aug 10 at 5:16 pm
Boris
But also closer allies than either party would be with The Greens.
Labor needs to spend the next 3 years getting medieval on the Greens ass. They need an Abbott to do a Hanson on them.
Peter Patton
25 Aug 10 at 5:24 pm
Yobbo might be happy to hear Adam is a Freo supporter.
Then again…
FDB
25 Aug 10 at 5:47 pm
In the interest of being homophobic rednecks can we just start referring to the member for Melbourne as “A. Bandit”?
That’s good. Mr Bandit the member for Melbourne.
But also closer allies than either party would be with The Greens. Labor needs to spend the next 3 years getting medieval on the Greens ass. They need an Abbott to do a Hanson on them.
There’s only one problem with that plan. The One Nation thing was easily co-opted by a little Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oik schtik by Howard albeit in a worsted navy-blue. Herd instinct is the single most reliable means of maintaining control.
The ALP tried rhetorically to pinch something from the Greens and marry it to herd instinct but in the end they couldn’t. The Greens vision is an intellectual’s utopia. Mr and Mrs Booval Battler’s vision is owning two houses, three cars and a boat.
They’ll probably try and fuck them another way. I reckon by using years of procedural and strategic experience to render them ineffective as long as possible. Wait for them to stuff up badly and kick ‘em in the head when they fall.
It’s the party that cares about people.
Adrien
26 Aug 10 at 12:15 pm