The ACT Government today announced a target of CO2 emissions reduction of 40 per cent by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels). That is, in 2008 CO2 emissions were estimated at 1.2 Mt in the ACT. The “business as usual” estimate is 1.62 Mt in 2020 (a 40 per cent increase over 1990 levels). The ACT Government’s target is now 0.695 Mt in 2020 (a 40 per cent reduction on 1990 levels).
Compared to “business as usual” this means a reduction of 58 per cent in 2020.
The ABS projects that the population of the ACT will grow from 339,800 in 2008 to 416,500 in 2026 using its middle series “B”.
That implies an annual growth rate of 1.08 per cent.
Therefore the projected population in 2020 is 390,600.
And that’s a 62 per cent reduction in per capita emissions in the ACT to 2020.
Here are the implications of this target:
- it will not be achieved – unless there is a nuclear power station providing energy to the ACT; or if it is achieved
- there will be a dramatic de-industrialisation or depopulation in the ACT.
With current technology and the emphasis on “renewable” energy such a target will be a huge impost on the ACT and will spike energy prices compared with the rest of the country. Perhaps, because the ACT is relatively small, there may be scope to import all of the electricity via “renewable” generations in NSW etc.
Once again, the ACT is a great natural experiment for policy.
With this policy, Queanbeyan can expect to do very well.
And it won’t make the slightest different to climate change – the ACT’s emissions are 0.22 per cent of Australia’s emissions and 0.0039 per cent of the world’s CO2 emissions.
To put this in context, the ACT Government’s target will reduce the world’s emissions by 0.003 per cent in 2020.
To put this in perspective, that is the difference in height between someone who is 1.8 metres exactly and someone who is 1.79994536 metres tall. Can you tell the difference?
Great work Samuel. The consequences of a Green-Labor government are there for all to see!
bianconieri
26 Aug 10 at 9:05 pm
The first regulation should be that all public servants must cycle to and from work.
Half of them will die during the first winter – that’s a good start.
boy on a bike
26 Aug 10 at 9:46 pm
I applaud the ACT Government. The entire world is playing a moronic game of chicken with the future of the planet, and someone has to have the balls to make the first move. Samuel is dead right – a 40% target will increase fuel bills in Canberra and have a negligible impact on global emissions. The same would be true of most other cities and many countries around the world. That is exactly why it is such a good decision. Climate change needs leaders, not self-interested wimps.
To put this in perspective, perhaps Samuel doesn’t bother to vote, because his vote is worth 0.0005% of the count in his electorate (much smaller than the impact Canberra might have on the world’s emissions). But if no-one voted we wouldn’t have three lunatics holding the country to ransom….maybe that’s a bad analogy, but you know what I mean.
NTM
26 Aug 10 at 9:54 pm
Yes, but lefties in the ACT will achieve a 5th dan in smugness via this target. That’s nothing to be scoffed at!
Ev630
26 Aug 10 at 11:29 pm
Not if they cycle in the nude. The sight of hordes of pasty, flabby middle aged public servants with their bits hanging out wobbling around the streets will be enough to wipe the smug off their faces.
Oops, I just vomited in my mouth at the thought.
boy on a bike
27 Aug 10 at 6:04 am
Good news! If only they had got serious like that a few years ago the Greens would have been discredited before this election and we would not have three or four lunatics holding the nation to ransom.
The good news for NTM is that one of the lunatics is officially Green and two of the others are inclined that way, not to mention the Green senators.
Rafe
27 Aug 10 at 8:00 am
“Once again, the ACT is a great natural experiment for policy.”
I like the idea of experiments in govt policy. I’m not sure Canberra is the best place to experiment in, as it has too many differences from the control group. But two differences, being small and rich, may be advantages in achieving the goal.
“there will be a dramatic de-industrialisation or depopulation in the ACT.”
What industrialisation? Fyshwick and Mitchell?
Jarrah
27 Aug 10 at 12:20 pm
NTM – nuclear power, baby!
.
27 Aug 10 at 12:49 pm
I think a nuclear power plant for Canberra is a brilliant idea. Canberra could become an exporter of electricity and finally make a worthwhile contribution to the economy of Australia.
TerjeP
28 Aug 10 at 3:34 pm
Stupid never goes out of style in Canberra, and I’m not talking about the politicians.
Good idea Terje, it would also provide real jobs here.
Keith
29 Aug 10 at 9:34 am
Very good idea TerjeP.
It might even get some of the CSIRO & ANU types out of politics & back into science
pattoh
31 Aug 10 at 3:29 pm