Open Forum, August 28, 2010 at Catallaxy Files

Open Forum, August 28, 2010

1,127 comments

Written by Sinclair Davidson

August 28th, 2010 at 12:49 am

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1,127 Responses to 'Open Forum, August 28, 2010'

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Update on Obama’s “Recovery Summer”:

Revision of Second Quarter GDP Shows Slowing Economy.

The sputtering economy may be headed for a double-dip recession after the government revised the nation’s gross domestic product downward for the second quarter to 1.6 percent from an initial estimate of 2.4 percent.

The first quarter grew at a 3.7 percent annual rate, the second quarter 1.6 percent, and this quarter is not likely to be anything worth bragging about, with economists forecasting growth of only 1.7 percent. GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and it’s the key indicator of the nation’s economic health.

The numbers are numbing — not nearly strong enough to give the recovery enough stride so that employers will want to hire, consumers will have the confidence to spend, or for businesses to invest robustly in equipment.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 2:02 am
Oh Jeez

Brian at LP is scaring himself to death again with some sorta lightening strike or some shit from out of space.

This one’s called ” the Carrington event.” and in his words “it’s scary”.
I bet it is Brian. I’m 110% certain you are scared.

In Brian’s own words

“Here’s a blog post from 2009 which is based on the same NASA report. It’s scary:”

Too freaking right dude, I honestly don’t know how you get up outta bed in the morning. What with the possibility of finding sea water swirling around your bed, or having to face a solar storm strike at any minute.

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/08/28/what-chance-a-new-carrington-event/

JC

28 Aug 10 at 2:09 am
In contrast to the epochal failure of Keynesianism in the US…

David Brooks in the NYT slams the stimulus debacle and praises fiscally prudent Germany:

During the first half of this year, German and American political leaders engaged in an epic debate. American leaders argued that the economic crisis was so bad, governments should borrow billions to stimulate growth. German leaders argued that a little short-term stimulus was sensible, but anything more was near-sighted. What was needed was not more debt, but measures to balance budgets and restore confidence.

The debate got pointed. American economists accused German policy makers of risking a long depression. The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, countered, “Governments should not become addicted to borrowing as a quick fix to stimulate demand.”

The two countries followed different policy paths. According to Gary Becker of the University of Chicago, the Americans borrowed an amount equal to 6 percent of G.D.P. in an attempt to stimulate growth. The Germans spent about 1.5 percent of G.D.P. on their stimulus.

This divergence created a natural experiment. Who was right?

The early returns suggest the Germans were. The American stimulus package was supposed to create a “summer of recovery,” according to Obama administration officials. Job growth was supposed to be surging at up to 500,000 a month. Instead, the U.S. economy is scuffling along.

The German economy, on the other hand, is growing at a sizzling (and obviously unsustainable) 9 percent annual rate. Unemployment in Germany has come down to pre-crisis levels.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 2:10 am
Brooks is such a phony douche. At the beginning of this appalling administration he was applauding the moron in the White House about the stimulus spending and now that it’s obvious it was a disaster he’s back-peddling at 100 MPH.

What a dick. But what does one expect from a writer at the paper of record.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 2:15 am
Yeah, Brooks has now bailed big time.

Brooksy to Obama: See-ya!

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 2:29 am
This really is starting to look like deliberate suicide:

Obama administration shelves prosecution of alleged USS Cole bomber

The Obama administration has shelved the planned prosecution of Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, the alleged coordinator of the Oct. 2000 suicide attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, according to a court filing.

The decision at least temporarily scuttles what was supposed to be the signature trial of a major al-Qaeda figure under a reformed system of military commissions. And it comes practically on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the attack, which killed 17 sailors and wounded dozens when a boat packed with explosives ripped a hole in the side of the warship in the port of Aden.

In a filing this week in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, the Justice Department said that “no charges are either pending or contemplated with respect to al-Nashiri in the near future.”

Ace: “Obama’s campaign to make the Democratic brand as toxic as possible before November rolls on.”

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/305089.php

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 2:34 am
And what will the Fed do in response? The only thing they know, print more money.

Did anyone see Four Corners on Monday night? I couldn’t believe I was watching the ABC.

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/series/four%20corners

Capitalist Piggy

28 Aug 10 at 2:43 am
I honestly think he doesn’t want the job anymore. I think even he knows he can’t handle it isn’t enjoying it and would really want out if he could.

The holiday thing is actually a single. You see that in corporations by people who feel under pressure or simply don’t like their job, which is why I keep mentioning it.

When people go off on regular unexpected vacation it can be a sign of not seriously being able to deal with stress in their work.

I’ve seen that sign too many times for it not to be a signal.

Jason’s dream team for 12 is Christie and Ryan. I reckon that ticket could get all 50 states.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 2:43 am
Cap:

I think they showed it without really understanding what they were presenting was an indictment of current economic policy.

How on earth Bob Schiff management to be shown on the ABC can only be explained that the leftie producer of Four Corners didn’t know what the fuck he was doing.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 2:46 am
Wow. Steve Forbes has his own theory:

He feels that, in terms of what he’s done, long-term it will make him a great President – put him on Mount Rushmore – change America from a greedy nation to a quiet socialist nation that knows its place in the world. So, in that sense, he’s just going to go along with it, and if the Democrats take a loss, they’re just martyrs to his revolution.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 2:48 am
oops ….. Bob Schiff managed…

I think Schiff is running for the senate out of Connecticut. He’s a follower of Austrian economics and with real attitude.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 2:49 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syNvJhwKGY4

Ben Cousins deleted scenes

Yobbo

28 Aug 10 at 3:00 am
Mort Zuckerman epitomizes the urbane American North Easterner limousine liberal .

Went to the right Ivy league University, made himself a billionaire albeit with a little help from pa. He then bought himself US News and the World report magazine and began preaching soft Left middle of the road gunk. Not really left wing, but both legs on either side of the fence while voting and supporting democrats who also went to the right schools and wealthy.

I always had a soft spot for Mort as he wasn’t averse to having right wing free market writers in his magazine pushed their views and seemed quite open to debate.

Mort did the “right” thing in 09 and supported Obama.

what does he say now?

The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in U.S. History
Current federal budget trends are capable of destroying this country

http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2010/08/26/the-most-fiscally-irresponsible-government-in-us-history.html

Another liberal smacked in the face by reality.

If you’re a Democrat and you lose Mort you’re in real fucking trouble.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 3:04 am
Very funny Yob. I thought that dude was serious for the first few seconds intro-ing those gals and we were going to see Cousins.

I reckon in real life wouldn’t be at all that different.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 3:10 am
JC,

Actually thats Peter Schiff, and yes I know who he is and what he stands for, hence the shock. (BTW, he lost his pre-selection for Republican candidate for Mass.).

Also, the narrator was Johan Norberg, a libertarian and senior fellow at the Cato Institute.

Capitalist Piggy

28 Aug 10 at 3:28 am
Oh sorry… Peter.. Close… hahahahaha.

So he lost the primary? That’s bad luck. I hope the one they chose is a decent dude.

Really, the narrator was a cato institute dude? Now I’m even more baffled as to how the program made it on Our ABC.

I think it would have gone right over the luvvies heads.
They would have sat there and thought.. well that’s America, so what do you expect with their unbridled capitalism.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 3:35 am
Yes it’s terrible to hear that Schiff lost the primary

Michael Fisk

28 Aug 10 at 4:05 am
What is Beck up to?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-27/beck-palin-rally-in-washington-drawing-supporters-of-babies-guns-jesus-.html

Michael Fisk

28 Aug 10 at 4:10 am
“The fiscal problems in countries are invariably the result of years of running deficits and bailing out financial institutions. ”

This is only partly true. Obama’s stimulus has failed and he has even less of a tax base now to pay off the debt.

Here is a list of questions for you:

1.

“The national accounts tell us the stimulus spending worked.”

How?

2.

“Give me a reason why government spending during the downturn didn’t stimulate growth.”

*Cap ex growth turned negative after we returned to positive GDP growth, then accelerated down with more stimulus after a small bump from the public sector.*

Do you agree or not that the growth rate is a function of capital investment?

3.

“Fed also believed government borrowing had forced up credit spreads”

*To say that this never happens (or can’t) or the post 2007 could not reinforce the spread increase is absolute.*

What is the idea behind this?

4.

*What is wrong with the idea that stimulus does not work in open economies?*

5.

The above questions in 12.32 am….( which are)

“Direct govenment spending was responsible for 2.8pps of 2.7% growth.”

Where exactly do the national accounts say this? I gave you and Homer exact cell refs for a claim I made about RBA data. You should do the same or explain how you came to this attribution.

“RGDI fell ~2.5% yet the unemployment rate peaked at 5.8%. That is an exraordinary result given the unemployment rate has a history of rising sharply when RGDI slumps.”

We had labour market flexibility not seen since pre WWI. Hours worked falling equated to about 1.1% unemployment and the increase in discouraged workers/net emigration increased to about 1.1% as well – which was more than the “jobs saved”.

There’s a bit more to assessing spending than “let’s write copy about the national accounts”.

“And thats before you add in the effect of the cash handouts on household spending and the impact of the business investment tax credit on private investment.”

Which was?

.

28 Aug 10 at 9:18 am
Dunno Fisk but I wish he’d bugger off. Beck is certifiable.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 9:25 am
“We’ve been through the Rudd stimulus ad nauseam. Simplicistic calculations like 300k per job fail to take into account the cost of lost output and bankruptcy which may have been incurred had the government sat on its hands. ”

For Australia it was $358000 per job. Such a calculation is *simplistic*, but it is also generous. It is unamortised and not scaled up with it’s own opportunity costs such as the cost of capital or deadweight loss.

The claims about lost output etc are wildly ambit claims, given; the stimulus from China, the role of monetary policy, our stimulus was late, it would never work since we are an open economy, we already had an infrastructure building programme unrelated to the stimulus which did not have the same cost blowouts, we had a very flexible labour market not seen since WWI or before.

Don’t agree?

Can you them rank them and the stimulus between 0 and 1 as a proportion of how you think they contributed to avoiding a downturn?

Note that we saw a drop in hours worked during the stimulus. Without a flexible labour market, this would have contributed 1.1% unemployment. We also saw a rise in hidden unemployment (something you wagered never would happen), which was equivalent to another 1.1% in unemployment.

The sum to 8.0% is around what most forecasters said. The fact that we simply brought forward growth from September to March 09. The net result was waste in poorly administered projects (necessarily inferring a lower demand for labour) but also a more permanent lower growth path. All we are left with is debt.

http://johnhumphreys.com.au/2010/02/11/what-would-have-been/

If you don’t agree, please tell me why John is wrong, or wrong in claiming that:

“Most of the leftie ALP cheer-squad are micro-economists who don’t understand the international macro accounting identity KAS = CAD. That single equation automatically means that at least half of the stimulus is wasted (and actually counter-productive)”

Final question about Australia: what was the value of the multiplier?

.

28 Aug 10 at 9:33 am
Meanwhile sfdc, America is screwed, thanks to stimulus:

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp?fromYear=1994&toYear=2010

.

28 Aug 10 at 9:34 am
Yeah, it’s official: Keynesianism has failed again.

WASHINGTON (AP) – The government is about to confirm what many people have felt for some time: The economy barely has a pulse.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100827/D9HRP2DG1.html

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 10:09 am
Caption: Thanks, Mum.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 10:11 am
CL, as I said a couple of days ago, the Governer General can get all the legal advice she wants. She has conflict of interest. End of story.

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 10:22 am
Of course she does, Dave. The Solicitor-General is just being a good Canberra institution man. His advice seems to be based on an argument that the Constitution has no actionable provisions on the subject (of mothers-in-laws to ministers).

Well, duh. Thanks for clearing that up.

The Constitution also fails to mention the existence of a prime minister.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 10:32 am
Massive fail, Obama:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/15-economic-statistics-that-just-keep-getting-worse

.

28 Aug 10 at 10:46 am
CL, as I said a couple of days ago, the Governer General can get all the legal advice she wants. She has conflict of interest. End of story.

What a vulgar perspective!

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 11:24 am
I presume you’re being ironic, Peter.
Her son-in-law is a Federal Labor politician and leader aspirant. That’s conflict of interest. The fact that the solicitor-general held her hand and told her not to worry doesn’t change anything. Legal advice is useless in this situation because it’s not a legal issue.

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 11:40 am
The progressive middle east!

Lebanon’s parliament has, after long delay, passed a law which allows Palestinian refugees to work legally.

It’s only taken 60 years. What awaits the Lebanese in 2070? Color television?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11004945

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 11:44 am
I’m sorry. But that is completely incoherent and ignorant babble.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 11:45 am
I’m sorry. But that is completely incoherent and ignorant babble.

The force of your arguments and persuasive powers have overcome me. I now see that the governer general has no personal interest in the outcome. Thanks Peter for setting me straight.

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 11:48 am
It’s not incoherent at all, Peter. Stop being silly. It’s not a legal issue. It’s an issue of subjective perception and apeparances. Everybody already knew the Constitution had no placita relating to mothers-in-law. The Solicitor-General has been wheeled out to create the illusion of transparancy. Bryce is a one-time Labor-appointed Governor, is a Labor-appointed Governor-General, has spruiked Labor policy – in Africa, notoriously) and on other issues – and has a son-in-law in the Labor government. She controversially sacked the Official Secretary who’d served Michael Jeffery and Peter Hollingworth and replaced him with Stephen Brady. Who is Stephen Brady?

Stephen Brady is a long-time friend of Kevin Rudd from their time together in the diplomatic service, and Brady’s partner Peter Stephens is an adviser to Rudd.

No, nothing to see here. Move along, says the Solicitor-General. Bollocks.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 12:25 pm
Oh FFS. This partisan hackery has poisoned the insides of your heads. Go and check the biographies of every single GG we’ve ever had.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 12:31 pm
Save us the trouble, Peter. Please name the Governors-General who were parents-in-law to senior ministers (and future party leaders) in the context of a hung parliament.

Name them.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 12:34 pm
If anything, I suspect that the perception of bias will make the GG act strictly by the book.

Rococo Liberal

28 Aug 10 at 12:49 pm
The Summer of ~~Recovery~~ Leftist Violence continues:

June 14, 2008:

Obama: ‘If They Bring a Knife to the Fight, We Bring a Gun’.

27 August 2010:

Police: Shot fired at Salisbury GOP office.

The Democrats are tearing America apart with their campaign of hatred and divisiveness.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 12:50 pm
Since every Governor-General is appointed on prime-ministerial advice, and since every prime-minister is the head of a party, the appointment is structurally “conflicted” if you want to put it like that.

The only solution to this supposed conflict would be to revert to English appointments. Electing the G-G would exacerbate the problem.

Otherwise one can trust in the prudence of the Governor-General, in the unlikely event that she has to exercise powers on her own initiative, as the Solicitor-General says.

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 1:32 pm
This is different because Bryce’s son-in-law is a senior minister, helped bring down the former prime minister and is touted as the future Labor leader.

If the Governor-General was Andrew Peacock and his daughter-in-law was Julie Bishop, Laborites would, of course, be outrageously outraged.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 1:40 pm
In that case the Laborites would be equally silly in my view.

I’m sure an Australian Governor-General can manage the issue with prudence, and without divisive partisan conflicts of the kind that are prevalent in the US.

If not, ask the English to take the power back.

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 1:51 pm
The proof is in the pudding. She can’t do anything really stupid, the PM can fire her on Bashir becoming administrator, and a vote of no confidence will decide things for a wrongly appointed PM.

.

28 Aug 10 at 1:53 pm
I have no doubt she can do that either, Taylor. You’re missing the point. It’s about perceptions. Let’s say she gives some beneficial decision Labor’s way and a week later – as Coalition supporters throughout the country (whose primary vote was the biggest) spit chips – Shorten is photographed laughing it up with Mumsy at Yarralumla while being sworn in.

Not a good look.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 1:56 pm
I don’t think I’m missing the point.

I say that if you regard the link as a bias (perception of bias always included) that is not manageable by ordinary prudence, there is only one solution – ask the English for assistance.

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 2:07 pm
Brisbane is now a 1,600 vote margin, Hasluck 850. National 2PP down to 50.4 – 49.6.

Michael Fisk

28 Aug 10 at 2:10 pm
Looks like Hasluck has been declared a “win” with Lib Ken Wyatt 856 votes in front of Sharyn Jackson 2PP. (50.53% to 49.47%)

Shazza goes back to her Miso’s Union sinecure.

Pedro the Ignorant

28 Aug 10 at 2:33 pm
The English have nothing to do with it, Taylor. Our own Constitution provides for a 2IC if needed. Bryce is a professional Labor appointee who favours Labor-aligned advisers, promotes Labor policy and has a Labor leader in the family. She should have resigned a long time ago.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 2:45 pm
You might have a point if the GG had any real power in this matter, but if she does favour Gillard and lets her form a government without the numbers it will be quickly exposed with a confidence vote.

AJ

28 Aug 10 at 2:56 pm
So C.L., you want Bashir or a deputy GG to administrate temporarily?

.

28 Aug 10 at 3:01 pm
It’s probably too late now, Dot. We have to go with the gubernatorial flow. But let’s hear no more of this nonsense that Bryce has no perceivable conflict of interest.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 3:08 pm
AJ

The GG doesn’t get an opportunity to “favor” anyone. The PM has all the cards. The GG does nothing until/unless her PM bounds up the steps of Government House and advises the GG, either that she [PM] can form a government or that she can’t. The GG then executes her PM’s advice.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 3:11 pm
Blair and Bolt again. Crikey humiliated.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 3:13 pm
oh dear, bozos at work.

Thew G/G will quite properly ask the present PM if she can form a government. That is the political convention.
See SA, Victoria where the present premier tried but failed to form a government or Tassie ,NSW where they did.

the Queen asked Gordon Brown if he could form a government. He tried but failed.

Either Gillard wil form a government or will not. In that case the G/G wil ask Abbott to form a government. The current PM always has the first call.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

28 Aug 10 at 3:14 pm
The GG doesn’t get an opportunity to “favor” anyone.

Not true.

In the event of a loss of support from ‘independents’ in the House, Gillard (if prime minister) might go to Yarralumla requesting an early election. As Antony Green points out, “the Governor-General may decline a request for an early election and appoint a new prime minister.” In other words, Bryce may have to favour Abbott over Gillard or Gillard over Abbott.

This is a judgement call.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 3:20 pm
Looks like the Greens have named their price. If Gillard pays it there will be tears I’m sure. If Abbott gets in a Labor man mate of mine says he’s going to cry.

I’ll be in tears too. This is comedy gold and I expect more than a few good yucks over the coming months.

Adrien

28 Aug 10 at 3:27 pm
The link ends with Gillard saying: “My aim in all of this is to provide a stable and effective government,”.

Well that’s a simple matter. Don’t bother scartching Bob Brown’s eyes out. Just call another election.

Currency Lad: please click that link. You’ll be flabbergasted to see the wedding ring on Sen Brown’s finger.

Adrien

28 Aug 10 at 3:29 pm
If the Governor-General was Andrew Peacock and his daughter-in-law was Julie Bishop, Laborites would, of course, be outrageously outraged.

Bryce has never been a member of any parliament let alone a contender for PM.

I love your little dance btw. When you agree with something then the fact of majority support is substantial and irrevocable. When you disagree with with it, majority support is irrellevant.

Are we at war with Eastasia or Eurasia this week? I keep forgetting.

Adrien

28 Aug 10 at 3:35 pm
CL

Knock it off. Seriously, dude, you are turning into a right-wing version of Prof Kwig’n.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 3:41 pm
CL,

No Gillard could ask for an election but the G/G would not give it.

Political convention is VERY clear.

Gillard gets first call at forming a Government. She can waltz into Parliament even if the Independents say they wil favour Abbott.HOWEVER after losing a vote of no confidence the G/G then MUST call on Abbott.

The G/G can do very little off her own bat.

We do need an impartial G/G like Paul Hasluck or Bill HAyden even Bill McKell that’s what CL is calling for

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

28 Aug 10 at 4:39 pm
I love your little dance btw. When you agree with something then the fact of majority support is substantial and irrevocable. When you disagree with with it, majority support is irrellevant.

I have no idea what this bizarre sentence means. Certainly it has no relevance to whether or not professional Labor Vice-Roy Quentin Bryce should be considered ethically compromised or not.

In the event of a loss of support from ‘independents’ in the House (which may not be via a confidence motion but on some other issue or issues), Gillard (if prime minister) might decide to go to Yarralumla requesting an early election. As Antony Green points out, “the Governor-General may decline a request for an early election and appoint a new prime minister.” In other words, Bryce may decide to favour Abbott over Gillard or Gillard over Abbott.

Why do you think the Solicitor-General looked at the question of her impartiality at all?

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 5:02 pm
the Tassie Governor had a ‘conflict of interest’ like this and no-one said anything because it was stupid as it is here.

If the independents change who they support then the government changes like in 1941.

Left leaning independents supported Greiner after the governor quite properly asked him to form a government. Rural independents supported Bracks after the governor quite properly asked Kennett to form a government but he failed despite having more seats than the ALP.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

28 Aug 10 at 5:07 pm
I have no idea what this bizarre sentence means.

Well that’s probably because you’re sub-literate. You need to go and check out Punctuation for Dummies and find someone who can read to explain full stops to you. Then you’ll know that that is actually three sentences.

Why do you think the Solicitor-General looked at the question of her impartiality at all?

To see if there’s a conflict of interest. So far it’s seems to have no legs.

Adrien

28 Aug 10 at 5:12 pm
Nope. You’re still not making any sense, Adrien.

Perhaps you could provide some information on the plebiscite held on the Bryce question so that I can better understand the majority decision I’m rebelling against.

?

To see if there’s a conflict of interest.

And why, pray, might that become important?

If the independents change who they support then the government changes like in 1941.

Not quite, Homer. As always, you’re knowledge of events is limited and somewhat caricatured.

1) Menzies resigned in 1941. A Prime Minister Gillard might not necessarily do so if the independents vote down various of her bills. She may ask the Governor-General for an early election.

2) When Fadden’s government was defeated in the House with the votes of two independents, Curtin was asked to form a government. However, Lord Gowrie, the Governor-General, summoned the two rebels and made them give guarantees that they would support a Curtin government. The new commission was contingent upon them agreeing.

Now, if Curtin was Gowrie’s son-in-law, that would have been a big problem.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 5:33 pm
Suggesting a foreign Governor-General probably is indispensable.

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 6:18 pm
To see if there’s a conflict of interest. So far it’s seems to have no legs

Amazing. No conflict of interest? You serious? Her family is literally in Gillard’s cabinet. That people can reply with a straight face that there’s no conflict of interest defies belief.

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 6:33 pm
BBB

You cannot compare the constitutional situations of the states with the Commonwealth, you goose.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 6:35 pm
Both centrebet and sportsbet are running betting markets on who will form minority government. I don’t think this is right. There are certain individuals who can absolutely make the result come out one way or another. That’s not possible in a horse race or a general election.

There is a real possibility of “insider betting.” Not necessarily by, say Oakeshott or Wilkie (I don’t think any member of our parliament is that unscrupulous), but by individuals who know them and know what they’re privately thinking.

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 6:49 pm
“That people can reply with a straight face that there’s no conflict of interest defies belief.”

Conflict of interest presupposes the existence of a fiduciary duty or other legal requirement of impartiality. Apprehension of bias presupposes the legal requirement of procedural fairness.

The Solicitor-General is saying neither exists as a matter of law in this case, and that it would have the potential to undermine the Constitution if it did.

The only way to contradict that advice is to say that the S-G is wrong, because the Constitution presupposes a foreign Governor-General removed from any such conflicts. Perhaps not a perspective many would agree with, but there you are.

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 6:59 pm
Being in a line of work where conflict of interest is something that has to be considered on a regular basis, this is what I would say:
1 this is a conflict situation;
2 probably she won’t actually make a decision where the conflict is relevant;
3 if she gets an actual choice she should excuse herself.

That said, I’ll bet plenty of Monarchs have been related to plenty of PMs back through history and so the potential conflict might not be constitutionally relevant.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 7:03 pm
“The Solicitor-General is saying neither exists as a matter of law in this case, and that it would have the potential to undermine the Constitution if it did.”

Then he/she’s a fuckwit. It’s not just about the LAW.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 7:05 pm
No pedro. You are the fuckwit. The GG knows only too well. Why do you think she has made sure the whole nations knows she is seeking advice.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 7:08 pm
How does that make me a fuckwit? Not denying that I am, of course.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 7:14 pm
Heaps of cranky people here this evening

tal

28 Aug 10 at 7:15 pm
You think tal, other than the pretty unfair abuse of FDB it seems pretty civilised.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 7:17 pm
Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 7:18 pm
I’m not crank tal. Just crude.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 7:18 pm
I meant to put a smile after my comment pedro

tal

28 Aug 10 at 7:20 pm
Conflict of interest presupposes the existence of a fiduciary duty or other legal requirement of impartiality.

So to rephrase, there is no conflict of interest because there’s no requirement for her to be impartial.
So, in theory she could be screwing the Prime Minister or the opposition leader and there would be no conflict of interest.

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 7:22 pm
Exactly Dad, Bryce taking massive mouthfuls of red muff would be entirely irrelevant to the question. See, being a lawyer is so easy.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 7:28 pm
dd

To be “impartial” between what? Mud wrestlers?

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 7:32 pm
DD

Right, but that would be in conflict with the non-legal concept of prudence referred to in the advice.

The advice is here, it’s only four pages long and quite readable:

http://www.gg.gov.au/res/file/2010/media/SG_Letter_26_8_2010.pdf

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 7:35 pm
Thanks Taylor, I read it and summarise it thus:
“Legally, she can do whatever the hell she likes. Even if there is a conflict of interest.”

daddy dave

28 Aug 10 at 7:42 pm
Taylor, the advice is black-letter. Rule number 1 is don’t put your own name to an advice that can be misused because you’ve left bits out.

Perceptions are important. You could equally say that porking the defendent is no impediment to a judge exercising his high judicial functions.

In this case, the context. Unlike the Queen, the GG can be replaced before the decision is made.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 7:45 pm
No she can’t. The High Court does not consider the GG much of a player in our Constitution. If any GG tried to get pushy, and it came before the HC, said GG would be bitch-slapped. Anyways, the PM can just sack them.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 7:45 pm
That “advice” was dopey. Clearly this is a set up. All he has done is quoted the text of the Constitution, which is a galaxy away from “the law” actually is.

Peter Patton

28 Aug 10 at 7:47 pm
DD

I think the power of the Governor-General is analogous to the royal prerogative, about which it has been said:

“[it] must always retain its historic character as a residue of discretionary authority to be employed for the public good. It is the last resource provided by the Constitution to guarantee its own working.” (Keir’s Constitutional History)

In short, I suppose, trust is a powerful thing.

Taylor

28 Aug 10 at 7:56 pm
“That “advice” was dopey. Clearly this is a set up. All he has done is quoted the text of the Constitution, which is a galaxy away from “the law” actually is.”

What is the “the law”, actually?

.

28 Aug 10 at 8:04 pm
“The High Court does not consider the GG much of a player in our Constitution.”

Have you got some citations for that conclusion, PP?

Rococo Liberal

28 Aug 10 at 8:12 pm
PeterP, rubbish, Gillard only has to ask the queen and a new GG will appointed straight away. Bryce could resign and bring it on.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 8:16 pm
Mark, the law does not contemplate all situations, and not this one it seems. But it is not hard to see that some people will be suspicious if Bryce gets to make judgement call and she makes it in favour of her son-in-law, among others. Next thing you know that simple fact would be used to criticise the legitimacy of the govt.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 8:18 pm
As I said above, the GG will now act strictly by the book. Because she knows that there is a perception out there that her family circumstances may sway her, I believe she will in fact give the Coalition more than an even chance.

In any case, like JC, I believe that the fact that the Libs have got 73 seats and that the 3 rural indies are all in conservative leaning seats means that Tony Abbott will be able to convince the GG that only he can form a stable Government. Then he can appoint a decent right-wing (i.e. normal and proper) GG.

Rococo Liberal

28 Aug 10 at 8:20 pm
Bruce has done a good job, hasn’t she?

“She’s a control freak. She’s all sweet and understanding in public, but in private it was a whole different ball game.”

Maybe she’s the Betty White of Australian politics?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oX2vJJPXIpw

.

28 Aug 10 at 8:22 pm
BTW if the GG was a right-wing Liberal appointed Vice Regent, then it wouldn’t matter if he/she was related to ten Liberal politicians, as we expect right-wingers to act honorably. We are all suspicious of Bryce because she is a stupid lefty who has acted improperly through a total lack of class.

This is always the problem with Labor. No breeeding and no bottom.

Rococo Liberal

28 Aug 10 at 8:23 pm
Parliament should recognise it’s own illegitmacy and legislate away it’s nefarious interference in our personal economic matters and personal lives.

.

28 Aug 10 at 8:24 pm
Wilke wanted his wife in the meeting with Gillard and Gillard agreed this was OK. This pandering is so pathetic and demeaning. Ban minority governments, they suck before they even start.

DavidJ

28 Aug 10 at 8:26 pm
RL, Bryce will not likely get an opportunity to make a call. If she does then the perception issue will exist either way.

“No breeeding and no bottom” You’ve been fooled by Gillard’s wardrobe, big bottom and ankles to match.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 8:28 pm
“Wilke wanted his wife in the meeting with Gillard and Gillard agreed this was OK.”

It’s not as if she has a choice if she wants to be PM.

.

28 Aug 10 at 8:29 pm
The Solicitor-General is saying neither exists as a matter of law in this case.

His advice was laughable. He basically reported that the Constitution has no provisions on mothers-in-law. Ergo, everything’s A-OK.

This is banana republic stuff.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 8:30 pm
1 this is a conflict situation;
2 probably she won’t actually make a decision where the conflict is relevant;
3 if she gets an actual choice she should excuse herself.

Exactly my argument.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 8:31 pm
Bryce taking massive mouthfuls of red muff…

All class at the Cat tonight.

Are we sure the collars and cuffs match, by the way?

UPDATE:

The Solicitor-General just phoned: there is no muff verification provision in the Constitution.

UPDATE II: Stedman just phoned. “Don’t know,” he said.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 8:37 pm
Zing!

.

28 Aug 10 at 8:39 pm
It is the audacity that Wilke would do so. His wife wasn’t elected, it is a confidential high level meeting of politicians. If Wilke is such a pussy that he cannot form his own opinion without his wife being present, he should just abdicate his power now to the butcher not the block. Thus saving the country from- I have to check with my wife bullshit.

DavidJ

28 Aug 10 at 8:41 pm
Pedro, you are confusing bottom with arse

Rococo Liberal

28 Aug 10 at 8:43 pm
I see on the news tonight that Fisk’s argument has gone mainstream and it’s now looking likely the Coalition will win the 2PP. It easily won on primaries and has the most seats. Add the plainly expressed wishes in the seats of the three Maoist bunyips and, well, there you have it.

It’s time for the Julia (pronounced HULIA) Gillardez junta to capitulate.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 8:47 pm
I am, what is bottom then? Or have I given a way my pleb origins?

“Are we sure the collars and cuffs match, by the way?”

Well no, is it Emmo we should ask? But why would you become a ranger? Who looks in the mirror and decides they’re not ugly enough and they’ll darn well do something about it.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 8:48 pm
Wilke’s wife is an adviser, and even if only informally, so what? Jeez, aren’t they fucked enough that we don’t have to worry about little shit like that.

Wilke could be the good one among the 5. At least he’s banging on about something sensible. Bandt’s a dick by self-definition and other other 3 are various species of complete fuckwit.

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 8:50 pm
Pedro,

I want a bit of details.

Apaprt from Wilkie’s pokie madness! he seems fairly reasonable.

.

28 Aug 10 at 8:52 pm
I was just Googling up some info on Andrew Wilkie’s wife and it turns out that the two of them are in the rug business. (When it isn’t an order barked from Sussex Street, what the hell is a ‘kilim’?).

Anyway, his wife was also an ONA desk spook:

Kate also has a background in international relations and worked with Andrew at ONA. She has a PhD in political science.

So they do everything together.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 8:55 pm
So it is OK if Timbo turns up with Julia for cabinet meetings? I guess once all the nasty policy conversation is done then they can all get some streaks and read Dolly to each other.

DavidJ

28 Aug 10 at 9:00 pm
Do ministers go to cabinet without advisors?

pedro

28 Aug 10 at 9:02 pm
His media advisor with him. He simply took his significant other on a date to see the PM.

DavidJ

28 Aug 10 at 9:07 pm
Award winning documentary maker Simon Nasht at ABC Unleashed didn’t like the Four Corners story, “Overdose”. Normally Four Corners stories are pretty good, he says, but this one was bad. The problem is that Cato Institute people were involved with it, and as every good leftie knows, the Cato Institute is bad. Therefore the ABC should not have shown it. What a stunning argument.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2995034.htm

Dangph

28 Aug 10 at 9:08 pm
It looks pretty funny (like Mrs Wilkie is playing spousal chaperone during a therapeutic massage) but she’s obviously very smart and is acting as her husband’s adviser – something he doesn’t have as an independent – in a more than usually complex situation. She might also be there to give Gillard a sincerity once-over. Perfectly reasonable.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 9:09 pm
I saw that at Unleashed, Dang. Hilarious, wasn’t it? Behead all those who insult the stimulus!!

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 9:10 pm
Nah, it stinks to me like Henry getting wisdom from his mum on the bank guarantees. It is being potentially influenced from a close emotional base. Besides, what ever happened to don’t screw the crew?

DavidJ

28 Aug 10 at 9:20 pm
I don’t think the agenda was confidential, though, David. It was just Wilkie banging on about poker machines ‘n stuff.

I agree that it doesn’t make him look very, um, independent.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 9:24 pm
CL – do you have a link for that news report on the 2PP?

Michael Fisk

28 Aug 10 at 9:28 pm
I saw Brent (Mumbles) saying it to a reporter on Channel 9 (or 10) news, Fisk.

C.L.

28 Aug 10 at 9:33 pm
Well if Mumbles says so, then it’s gotta be right.

Michael Fisk

28 Aug 10 at 9:38 pm
Here’s Mumbles on Twitter (god this sounds like a children’s picture book):

Plug rough estimates into the seats with no 2pps here http://bit.ly/dBBYkh, add it all up to about 50.1 v 49.9. Many postals to count.
about 11 hours ago via web.

In fact, Coalition has *probably* won the national 2pp.
about 11 hours ago via web

http://twitter.com/mumbletwits

This is consistent with my claim that the Coalition would get up to 52% of postals, etc, and take the national 2PP.

Michael Fisk

28 Aug 10 at 9:48 pm
I forgot Wilkie was a former Lt. Col. – he’s likely to be far more pragmatic than Bob Brown.

He hasn’t begged for a Ministry yet either.

.

28 Aug 10 at 10:18 pm
This pic is just so, so wrong. It actually is a revolt against nature

http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/05/20/rundle-in-cannes-come-for-the-films-stay-for-the-parties/

JC

28 Aug 10 at 11:17 pm
Joe Biden VP:

In Delaware, the largest growth of population is Indian Americans, moving from India. You cannot go to a 7/11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.

JC

28 Aug 10 at 11:59 pm
New finding. Test scores are biased against students who don’t give a shit.

http://www.theonion.com/video/in-the-know-are-tests-biased-against-students-who,17966/

JC

29 Aug 10 at 12:20 am
The Americans are having their own pink batts shambles:

“Nearly 18 months since it started, the stimulus weatherization program has experienced spending delays, inefficiencies and mismanagement. In Biden’s home state of Delaware, the entire program has been suspended since May, and last month federal auditors identified possible fraud.”

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iadyD5XKmEBG9rKT1EOkoaeIUPwwD9HS07BG0

Dangph

29 Aug 10 at 12:27 am
Confirmed: Katrina vs. oil spill – Bush did superior job.

Louisiana Voters Think Bush Did a Better Job of Handling Crisis Than Obama by 54%-33%.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 1:09 am
Michael,
I will repeat what I said on LP a little earlier:
Just a quick note, guys – don’t get hung up on the 50.5% two party preferred (TPP) figure – it’s wrong.
The proof is simple – the AEC have processed to TPP stage 11,079,615 votes so far, but the “50.5%” number is based on 5,374,840 ALP TPP votes and 5,290,758 Lib TPP votes – a shortfall of 414,017 votes.
The reason for this is [also] simple. A full TPP distribution has not been done while the AEC are sorting out the situation in the seats that are not ALP / Coalition TPP. It will be done once the important stuff is done – like sorting out who won the seat.
I would expect the gap will change a bit, and maybe even disappear, once this proper distribution is done due to the voting pattern in the seats with a “non-standard” current TPP.

Andrew Reynolds

29 Aug 10 at 3:20 am
Uh oh! Corangamite is trending back to the Coalition. Now 50.5 to 49.5, with a margin of 884 votes, 90.1% counted. The Libs will need to win the remaining votes by at least 55-45 to take this seat – probably too high, but you never know. Labor supporters around the country are incredibly nervous.

Tick tock tick tock tick tock tick tock!

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-207.htm

Michael Fisk

29 Aug 10 at 4:03 am
JC

I did not realise that the “star” of that piccies was so ethnic. And gay!

I can’t stand people who drink from a glass or cup with their pinky held out!

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 8:07 am
If anything, Rundles looks uncomfortable in that pic. He is leaning away from the smiling blonde and his face has the look of a man who feels decidedly out of place. Textbook luvvy discomfort with beautiful gals I’d say.

asf

29 Aug 10 at 8:57 am
Obama acts on flatlining American economy:

POTUS is golfing with Mayor Bloomberg today, and they prefaced their game with a 15-minute discussion of the economy in the clubhouse at the Vineyard Golf Club.

Now, watch this drive.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 9:12 am
I think it’s one of the most fabulous photos I’ve ever seen, given what I know of the subject from his public scribblings. I think I might download and frame it. I shall title it Trot in Cannes

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 9:14 am
Perhaps you could provide some information on the plebiscite held on the Bryce question so that I can better understand the majority decision I’m rebelling against.

What information can I provide on something that does not exist even as a work of fiction? Plebiscites are not usually the instrument wherein questions of law are decided.

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 10:19 am
I still don’t know what you’re talking, Adrien.

A tip: just write what you mean and people will follow what you’re saying. Leave the New Journalism to someone with a talent for it.

Smiley.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 12:15 pm
A hybrid of Rudd-Gillard debacles: the spirit of pink batts brought to bear on the asylum seeker question:

Rioting Darwin detainees start fire.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 12:19 pm
The Washington Post tries desperately to play down the success of the Palin-Beck rally at the Lincoln Memorial:

Subliminal Deception.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 12:29 pm
I still don’t know what you’re talking, Adrien.

All please rise for the National Anthem of Queensland as sung by its most talented and handsome man.

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 1:05 pm
Adriend

I think you erred in your link. I do believe the QLDer you intended is here.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2990393.htm

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 1:10 pm
Rococo – if the GG was a right-wing Liberal appointed Vice Regent, then it wouldn’t matter if he/she was related to ten Liberal politicians, as we expect right-wingers to act honorably.

There’d be some substance to the notion perhaps that the ALP are more liable to suspicion then the LPA. The Left tend to assume the powerful nefarious and the oppressed virtuous. This is their biggest mistake.

The Right’s biggest mistake is to assume virtue on the part of the aristocracy. Having seen Bhutto and Bjelke-Petersen in action, it’s a bit hard for me to believe.

This is always the problem with Labor. No breeeding and no bottom.

True. But the Labor Party is working on its in-breeding and is endeavouring to hit bottom and quick. Give ‘em some credit.

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 1:10 pm
I think you erred in your link. I do believe the QLDer you intended is here.

My response to that holds such acid Sinclair might beat the shit outta me if I say it. So I’ll just think it.

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 1:11 pm
I’m sure Sinclair will restrain himself for this very special QLDer.

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 1:16 pm
C.L – that Stalin like editing is fucking disgreaceful.

.

29 Aug 10 at 1:20 pm
Only atheists are Stalinists. Catholics are never Stalinists because Stalin wasn’t a Catholic. Also you and I are ducks. Ducks have legs don’t they?

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 1:22 pm
I’m sure Sinclair will restrain himself for this very special QLDer.

I think it’d be a case of the need to protect the dignity of an institution regardless of the respect or otherwise of a particular individual. Besides I made a deal with Bahnisch and I haven’t broken it.

Don’t go to LP. But who knows? One day I might be in the mood to spend an entire day citing a shitload of sources to establish the existence of a fact that persist in ignoring .

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 1:25 pm
Sorry, Doctor Bahnisch. (Egad!)

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 1:25 pm
Adrien Have you now started drinking in the morning every day?

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 1:26 pm
The Right’s biggest mistake is to assume virtue on the part of the aristocracy. Having seen Bhutto and Bjelke-Petersen in action, it’s a bit hard for me to believe.

Bjelke-Petersen was aristocracy, Adrien?

Have you read a single biography of the man?

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 1:28 pm
See, you have no discipline, Adrien. All writers – epsecially of raffish journalese – love alliteration but when your polemics machine churns out “Bhutto and Bjelke-Petersen” as examples of aristocracy, you have to step back and say, ‘alas no.’

Given the context of the discussion – involving the efficacy of liberal versus conservative leadership figures – “Having seen Bhutto and Bush in action…” would have made more sense, given your aversion to the latter and his WASPy establishmentarian antecedents.

Joh Bjelke-Petersen was the poor son of Danish immigrants. He left school at 11 and lived in a shed for 13 years while clearing his property with draft horses and chains. No Queensland Premier has had a more proletarian background.

No elephant stamp for you.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 1:43 pm
No you’re lying.

He a was a Kulak.

.

29 Aug 10 at 1:49 pm
Adrien

Aristocracy!!?? FMD. Dude, don’t you live in Victoria, where the Premier is a Melbourne Grammar boy, and the opposition leader…Oh, never mind. Just put the flagon down!

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 1:57 pm
Jeez, WaPo did that? How incredible and expected at the same time.

These people are total scumbags.

JC

29 Aug 10 at 2:37 pm
“if the GG was a right-wing Liberal appointed Vice Regent, then it wouldn’t matter if he/she was related to ten Liberal politicians, as we expect right-wingers to act honorably.”

Who we? Speak for yourself, RL, especially when saying such nonsense, please.

Unless you were joking of course.

Boris

29 Aug 10 at 2:43 pm
“The Right’s biggest mistake is to assume virtue on the part of the aristocracy. ”

Adrien, this would be true in 19th century. Now the left is more eletist than the right, if anything.

Boris

29 Aug 10 at 2:46 pm
Victorian government comes up with a solution to its failed bike rental scheme.

You’re not going to believe what it is…

Yeah. This is the party that will “roll out” a $43 billion NBN on time and on budget.

They can’t run a bicycle business.

C.L.

29 Aug 10 at 2:46 pm
Most people who want to ride a bicycle own one themselves. The scheme’s operated by the RACV though, so perhaps failure is in the design.

FDB

29 Aug 10 at 2:52 pm
Boris

I was joking

Rococo Liberal

29 Aug 10 at 2:52 pm
RL your problem is that the real you is such an outlandish buffoon, nobody’s going to spot the self-parody.

Might as well just keep it real.

FDB

29 Aug 10 at 2:54 pm
The GG should always come from the conservative side of politics because you simply can’t trust a leftwinger in that position to do the right thing.

Doubt me? Then leftwingers need to explain Kerr.

JC

29 Aug 10 at 3:06 pm
As I sit here looking out at the ocean through one window and at the Harbour from another, I understand why most of those on the left are such crap at seeing the big picture. You need to look at horizons sometimes to understand just how large the opportunities and the problems are. Too many leftists seem so cramped or confused in their views, because they haven’t stopped to take in the fact that the infinite variety of life is to be revelled in not to be reduced to manichean struggles between capital and the rest.

Rococo Liberal

29 Aug 10 at 3:06 pm
You see what I mean?

FDB

29 Aug 10 at 3:08 pm
RL, big picture is important but this simplistic leftist – rightist divide is in itself short-sighted and crude.

Examples of leftists with a big picture view of the world: George Orwell.

Boris

29 Aug 10 at 3:10 pm
FDB how’s the cat?

tal

29 Aug 10 at 3:13 pm
Addicted to food I can’t really afford, but cute enough to keep getting away with it thanks Tal.

FDB

29 Aug 10 at 3:28 pm
Currency Lad – See, you have no discipline, Adrien. All writers – epsecially of raffish journalese – love alliteration but when your polemics machine churns out “Bhutto and Bjelke-Petersen” as examples of aristocracy, you have to step back and say, ‘alas no.’

Why? They are examples of men who ruled who were less than virtuous hence my skepticism. In any case it’s a glob retort to RL’s Col. Blimp schtick. I seriously doubt he’d remove checks and balances from members of the Liberal Party.

Given the context of the discussion – involving the efficacy of liberal versus conservative leadership figures – “Having seen Bhutto and Bush in action…” would have made more sense, given your aversion to the latter and his WASPy establishmentarian antecedents.

Oh yeah that’s right, Bush too. Alliteration comes in threes. Or not. Bush actually begins with a ‘D’. D for dumbarse.

Joh Bjelke-Petersen was the poor son of Danish immigrants. He left school at 11 and lived in a shed for 13 years while clearing his property with draft horses and chains. No Queensland Premier has had a more proletarian background.

Um, and what exactly do traditionalists such as yourself always wax lyrical about when extolling rhwe virtues of capitalism and the British system of governance. Something to do with self-made individuals comes to mind. B-Petersen was wealthy when he came to the fore. If he hadn’t been he still would’ve been a member of the ‘ruling class’ on account of he made the rules.

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 3:35 pm
Boris – Adrien, this would be true in 19th century. Now the left is more eletist than the right, if anything.

They’re both elitist Boris. The assumptions of virtue they hold characterize the different ways this is so.

PP – Dude, don’t you live in Victoria, where the Premier is a Melbourne Grammar boy, and the opposition leader…Oh, never mind. Just put the flagon down!

But the flagon with the dragon holds the brew that is true.

(I don’t assume Brumby’s virtuous either. )

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 3:39 pm
If he hadn’t been he still would’ve been a member of the ‘ruling class’ on account of he made the rules.

And the award for “Circular Reasoning Argument of the Month” goes to…

daddy dave

29 Aug 10 at 4:47 pm
DD – I’m not reasoning I’m just sparring. I try not to reason on Sunday. My day for reasoning is Tuesday.

Adrien

29 Aug 10 at 4:50 pm
I’m not reasoning I’m just sparring

Yeah I know but I had to call you on it anyway.

daddy dave

29 Aug 10 at 4:56 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/29/2996481.htm

What would the multicult crowd at LP say?

.

29 Aug 10 at 5:41 pm
Looks like Left Kim and the LP crowd have been on the blower.

He has also endured racist abuse while walking through Guildford in his electorate, with one man calling him “Uncle Tom Wyatt” last Thursday

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/aboriginal-mp-ken-wyatt-in-race-row-claim/story-fn5taogy-1225911371233#ixzz0xyp4r6ib

http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/aboriginal-mp-ken-wyatt-in-race-row-claim/story-fn5taogy-1225911371233

Peter Patton

29 Aug 10 at 6:03 pm
“Looks like Left Kim and the LP crowd have been on the blower.”

Does it? What a strange thing to say.

FDB

29 Aug 10 at 6:15 pm
What would the multicult crowd at LP say?

Well last time an Aboriginal made right wing noises, which was Noel Pearson he was called a coconut at LP so I shudder ti think what they would be calling this dude.

JC

29 Aug 10 at 6:27 pm
Joe, you have broken out in italics again!!!

tal

29 Aug 10 at 6:32 pm
It wasn’t me, Tal. It was that rat fink, FDB. He’s always pulling that shit trying so that I get the blame.

FDB, you gotta stop this crap or simply not post comments here as we’re mighty sick and tired of you wrecking the site.

JC

29 Aug 10 at 6:37 pm
Joe,own up to it darl.

tal

29 Aug 10 at 6:42 pm
I did, tal.As I said it was FDB trying to get me into trouble. Typical leftie. They’re so underhanded and shifty.

JC

29 Aug 10 at 6:44 pm
Well in that case FDB should be flogged

tal

29 Aug 10 at 6:50 pm
Hmmm, there may be good reasons to have FDB flogged anyway. But the outbreak of italics isn’t one of them.

Sinclair Davidson

29 Aug 10 at 7:08 pm
Dunno if you’d get much for me anyway.

FDB

29 Aug 10 at 7:18 pm
Not sold for money, whipped for our pleasure.

Sinclair Davidson

29 Aug 10 at 7:47 pm
Subsidy whores:

http://www.acciona.com/news/acciona-energy-to-receive-103-million-euros-from-the-canadian-government-for-the-company%E2%80%99s-fourth-wind-farm-in-canada

http://indymedia.org.au/2010/01/23/mildura-solar-power-plant-languishes-while-coal-gets-funding

.

29 Aug 10 at 8:36 pm
Saw this in the last “not politics alone” thread at LP:

“Spent most of the day discovering yet again that prevarication is the only thing that you can never put off until later.”

I assume that was a witticism that turned into a malapropism, and that s/he meant to say “procrastination”.

But could that be the motto of LP?: It’s never too early in the day to start prevaricating?

Dangph

30 Aug 10 at 9:58 am
reactions?

http://opiniondominion.blogspot.com/2010/08/knock-yourselves-out-libertarians.html

Knock yourselves out, libertarians

I can safely predict there will be argument about this amongst the sweary, teenage boy libertarians over at Catallaxy:

TEN years of suicide data after John Howard’s decision to ban and then buy back 600,000 semi-automatic rifles and shotguns has had a stunning effect.

The buyback cut firearm suicides by 74 per cent, saving 200 lives a year, according to research to be published in The American Law and Economics Review.

Posted by Steve at 7:22 AM

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 11:26 am
The buyback cut firearm suicides by 74 per cent, saving 200 lives a year,

What a great scheme. Now rather than shooting themselves they hanged themselves or drove their cars very fast into trees. Ever wondered why there are so many car accidents on country highways that don’t involve skid marks? The suicide rate is unchanged.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 11:31 am
You can still own guns. Howard didn’t ban all guns, he banned some of them: semi automatics.

TEN years of suicide data after John Howard’s decision to ban and then buy back 600,000 semi-automatic rifles and shotguns has had a stunning effect.

Here’s a question for that twit. Why the fuck do you need a semi automatic for suicide?

If there’s more than one bullet or shotgun blast in a body, it’s not suicide you intellectual dropkick. It’s murder.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 11:31 am
jc, your favourite economist Andrew Leigh is one of the coauthors

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 11:33 am
to be fair the research does try to account for counterfactuals. the methdology is quite clever

http://www.smh.com.au/national/howards-gun-legacy–200-lives-saved-a-year-20100829-13xne.html

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 11:34 am
It’s a freakonomics style conclusion.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 11:36 am
I didn’t look Jason. Honestly I didn’t look before you just informed me, as there wasn’t any need to. The argument sank on its merits right there.

Why am I not shocked one of the authors is Andrew Light? Seriously.

Who the fuck would think you need a semi automatic for suicide other then him.

What an adornment to our political system he’s going to turn out to be.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 11:39 am
The article Steve links to re guns is here.

Might be solid. Might be true. The article mentions – several paragraphs in – that the suicide rate was trending down at the time anyway. And this sounds dodgy:

”It also succeeded in its stated goal. Before the buyback, Australia used to have a multiple shooting every year or two.

”In the 13 years since, there have been none. I have calculated the probability of that happening by chance. It’s extraordinarily low.”

There were Port Arthur or Hoddle St massacres “every year or two”?

Bullshit.

And has she heard of the Melbourne gangland killings?

How come the gun ban didn’t force Melbourne’s yobbo gangsters to attack one another with Shanghais?

Oh, that’s right – they’re criminals and therefore have special privileges.

The research claims, however, are irrelevant.

Limiting and infringing liberty on the grounds that it will save lives is still deplorable. We could save many more lives by banning accident-prone 18 to 28 year olds from driving on highways. We could save many by banning football. Or fast food. Or liquor. Or..

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 11:41 am
As I said, to be fair the authors have tried to account for other forms of suicides. it does the best it can do with the dataset it has in quite an ingenuious manner. But it has both the strengths and weaknesses of Freaknonomics style research like the obvious unanswered intuitive reaction -why would you need semi autos as opposed to other kinds of guns to kill yourself?

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 11:42 am
We could save many more lives by banning accident-prone 18 to 28 year olds from driving on highways. We could save many by banning football. Or fast food. Or liquor. Or..

All excellent ideas. You’ll make a sound politician.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 11:43 am
I’d like to see a research paper on the rise in drive by shootings. There seems to be one every night in western Sydney.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 11:44 am
Why the fuck do you need a semi automatic for suicide?

Because you hate whoever’s going to find your body and you want to make a real mess.

I don’t think there’s going to be an argument unless ‘Steve’ comes over here and tells us all why its a good thing to ban guns because 200 people would’ve topped themselves. You could save a lot more lives a year by banning cars and beer. Why don’t we ban that to.

I think people are entitled to top themselves if they wanna.

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 11:48 am
It’s not really about semi-autos, Jason. The new law required secure storage and this may have prevented others’ access to previously available firearms – teenage sons etc.

Interesting to get Katter’s reaction. He likes to go on and on (and on and on) about all the ‘farmers’ he knows who’ve committed suicide.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 11:49 am
Interesting to get Katter’s reaction. He likes to go on and on (and on and on) about all the ‘farmers’ he knows who’ve committed suicide.

Yea, apparently it’s one every four days. Katter mentions this 28 times a day now that he’s famous.

That’s around 91 farmers a year.

I wonder how that compares to urban rates?

JC

30 Aug 10 at 11:52 am
Because you hate whoever’s going to find your body and you want to make a real mess.

How?

JC

30 Aug 10 at 11:54 am
Someone’s pulled a David Puddy on poor old Rob Oakeshott.

What a whining girly man.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 11:54 am
I can imagine Steve being scared of guns. I can imagine Steve being scared of a pepper grinder. In fact there’s nothing I can’t imagine Steve being scared of, except maybe the forbidden touch of a oiled Chippendale.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 11:54 am
“What a great scheme. Now rather than shooting themselves they hanged themselves or drove their cars very fast into trees. Ever wondered why there are so many car accidents on country highways that don’t involve skid marks? The suicide rate is unchanged.”

It’s much easier to succeed in killing yourself if there’s a gun to hand. Not much planning or preparation to give you time to reconsider, not much chance of being discovered halfway dead and revived etc etc.

The idea wasn’t to stop people getting depressed, you know.

FDB

30 Aug 10 at 11:56 am
Oh, and the car crashes with no accidents on country roads – I don’t suupose you’ve heard of falling asleep at the wheel? Pretty famous way to die, I thought.

Not really much of a thinker are you Tiger?

FDB

30 Aug 10 at 11:58 am
How come the gun ban didn’t force Melbourne’s yobbo gangsters to attack one another with Shanghais?

Oh, that’s right – they’re criminals and therefore have special privileges.

The research claims, however, are irrelevant.

Yea… crims also observe Howard’s regs by making sure their firearms are safely stored when not in use.

Judges these days are herd to complement hit men and other assorted characters if they’ve at least observed firearms storage regulations.
LOL.

Andrew Light is no Steve Levitt

JC

30 Aug 10 at 11:58 am
Fme dead. We arguing about about one of Steve from Brisbane’s threads?

I forgot that was his website.

That’s it for me. Nothing else needs to be said.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:01 pm
Nah, never happens, FDB.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:02 pm
Joe – Think of the mess you could make with this.

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 12:04 pm
ROB Oakeshott is seeking assurance from Tony Abbott that a sinister phone call from a senior Liberal was not part of a deliberate strategy.

The NSW independent MP has already received an apology from the unnamed Liberal who called his mobile at the end of last week, claiming to be “the devil” when his wife answered.

He has now warned that political issues at play within the Coalition could make it harder for Mr Abbott to negotiate with him in good faith.

“I do get the sense that they are making this a very difficult process for Tony Abbott to negotiate in good faith on. So I’m not sure whether Tony’s to blame, someone else is to blame or no-one is to blame – whether these are just Rambo-type operations going on from rogue members,” he told ABC’s Radio National this morning.

Oakeshott’s just trying to get political cover as the douchebag makes it over to Labor’s side, that’s all.

He’s such a little pansy that the voters ought to be embarrassed having sent that idiot to Canberra in the first place.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:06 pm
Here you go FDB:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2248/is_n118_v30/ai_17150135/

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 12:07 pm
Yes, yes, very nice links fellas. Thanks for proving beyond a shadow of doubt that sometimes people kill themselves in a car crash.

Now have you got one showing that there’s been an increase in skid-mark-less road deaths concurrent with the decrease in gun suicides? Or was that just you blowing smoke out of your arse, Tiger?

Remember this?

“The suicide rate is unchanged.”

Got a link for that?

FDB

30 Aug 10 at 12:16 pm
TEN years of suicide data after John Howard’s decision to ban and then buy back 600,000 semi-automatic rifles and shotguns has had a stunning effect.

House prices have also gone up in that time frame. People have stopped investing in firearms and are now pouring all that spare cash into property!

But tuberculosis has also gone up in the same time period. They’ve left the shooting range and are taking holidays in dangerous, third world countries where they contract illnesses that they bring back to Australia.

Howard’s gun buy back. All kinds of unintended consequences.

daddy dave

30 Aug 10 at 12:18 pm
I thought that too, JC. His suggestion that Abbott dispatched a colleague to ring up Oakeshott’s house and harrass his wife – and that Abbott now has to ‘assure’ him this wasn’t so – is a disgrace. Obviously, the t-shirt tucker is trying to boost his victim credentials (including back home) in oder to rationalise his switch to Labor.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:18 pm
Good point, Dave. Howard’s law was pre-mining boom. That boom has employed tens of thousands of men from otherwise potentially suicide-prone cohorts.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:20 pm
JC, I agree it sounds like Oakeshott wants to go Labor and is looking for reasons to justify that decision.

daddy dave

30 Aug 10 at 12:20 pm
Howard’s gun buy back. All kinds of unintended consequences.

‘sactly. And you can take this further. The unintended consequence of Canberra receiving quasi state like status is the creation of politburo like seats and Andrew Light being appointed to parliament.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:21 pm
Oakeshott is a turd for suggesting Abbott orchestrated the illegal telephone harrassment of his wife. In different settings and circumstances, he’d get his block knocked off for saying that.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:24 pm
Why in a different setting? Next time PM Abbott walks past him he ought to knock him out. I guarantee you that there would only be perhaps 15% of the population (tops) that would admonish PM Abbott for doing so. The rest would cheer him on.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:26 pm
Oakeshott:

“I do get the sense that they are making this a very difficult process for Tony Abbott to negotiate in good faith on. So I’m not sure whether Tony’s to blame, someone else is to blame or no-one is to blame – whether these are just Rambo-type operations going on from rogue members”

Yeah, he really unloaded both barrels on poor defenceless Tony.

FDB

30 Aug 10 at 12:31 pm
Yep, they’re going Labor.

Katter is now claiming a Liberal threw a punch at him on election night and that he then beat him up:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/30/2997184.htm?section=justin

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:34 pm
TEN years of suicide data after John Howard’s decision to ban and then buy back 600,000 semi-automatic rifles and shotguns has had a stunning effect.

The buyback cut firearm suicides by 74 per cent, saving 200 lives a year, according to research to be published in The American Law and Economics Review.

Yet if you look at this ABS publication, hanging suicides have increased by about 80%.

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/4410D945E6F9BF2FCA256F6A00735523/$File/3309055001_1993%20to%202003.pdf

Overall numbers in 2003 were about the same as in 1993, albeit with a larger population. (See table 4).

However, in 2008, total suicides were higher than at any time in the 1993 – 2003 period. They appear to be trending up from 2006, after trending down for several years.

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/E8510D1C8DC1AE1CCA2576F600139288/$File/33030_2008.pdf
(See page 48).

The proportion of hangings per shooting suicide has gone from 1.5:1 in 1993 to 7:1 in 2008.

We need a rope “buyback”.

Paul Williams

30 Aug 10 at 12:34 pm
“… I’m not sure whether Tony’s to blame…”

For directing a colleague to illegally harrass his wife on the telephone.

The fairy ought to apologise.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:36 pm
We need a rope “buyback”.

Or stop giving credence to idiots and then appointing them to parliament.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:36 pm
FDB;

“The suicide rate is unchanged.”

Got a link for that?

Have a look at the ABS links I just posted.

Paul Williams

30 Aug 10 at 12:38 pm
Good point, Paul.

I also suggest all rope be registered and secured in rope lockers.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:38 pm
Steve is an idiot. Look at the AIC data.

Guns don’t increase the crime rate. Suicides use what is available. The suicide rate is a function of economic conditions. The murder rate is a function of the efficacy of the criminal justice system. The murder rate has been falling since the 1970s.

http://www.ssaasa.org.au/pdf/Baker-McPhedran_critique_of_chapman_et_al.pdf

Gun control is bullshit. End of story.

.

30 Aug 10 at 12:42 pm
Wilkie seems to have gone to labor as well.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/wilkie-releases-20point-list-of-priorities-20100830-13y87.html

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:44 pm
Brilliant speech by David Leyonhjlem of LDP fame…

http://www.c-l-a-s-s.net/prohibition.htm

.

30 Aug 10 at 12:47 pm
Labor cracks down on lollies:

THEY’VE been a staple of hospital waiting rooms and reception desks for decades, but charity fundraiser chocolates, mints and lollies will be banned from all SA Health buildings under a crackdown on “unhealthy” food.

We need lolly safes and a lolly buy-back.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 12:47 pm
“Wilkie’s list:

National

* Introduction of maximum $1 bet and $120/hour loss limits on all poker machines in Australia.”

Up your’s mate, a $10 slap payed for my last binge on King St.

.

30 Aug 10 at 12:50 pm
Labor will give him all he wants, Dot.

If you want to play the Labor/Green alliance and make money you can’t go far past buying Gunns.

At the end of the day Gunns will have the largest slab of cultivatable forests in the country, as everything else is off limits.

I’m kinda partial to the Greens for the nest week or so, so you won’t hear an anti-green peep out of me over his period. I love the Lab/Green alliance

I love Bob Brown and Christine Milne at the moment. They make a great deal of sense to me.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 12:56 pm
CL

Don’t read this please, unless of course you want your heart rate to increase all of a sudden.

SOURCES: While president was in Martha’s Vineyard, workers at White House have been busy installing new carpets, drapes, painting, etc. in Oval Office… Developing.

I’m calling 2012 a 50 state sweep to any GOP candidate. I think even Hawaii could go GOP and it hasn’t since statehood.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 1:06 pm
Introduction of maximum $1 bet.

What an un-Australian poof.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 1:12 pm
13,000 people voted for this miserable turd and now he wants to re-shape te country in his own image? Fuck him and the pony he rode in on.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 1:16 pm
can we just kick Tasmania out of the federation?

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 1:17 pm
Paul:
ABS changed the method of calculating suicides (in retrospect) for 2008 and 2009.
Almost certainly, the rate did not jump as it appears to do.
Most people who have studied the question believe that the rate has been trending down over the past ten years. There are a couple of articles on this in course of preparation.
The gun buyback did perhaps contribute to the reduction a bit – but not much – and the most likely prime cause was better treatment of mental illness, especially depression. Remember that about 85% of those committing suicide are suffering from a mental illness.

ken n

30 Aug 10 at 1:19 pm
It really is official now, isn’t it? The wowsers Australians have hated and ridiculed for 200 years have now found their natural home: the Australian Labor Party.

Motto: ‘No booze, no cigs, no lollies, no gambling, no risks, no boobies.’

And the left mocks Abbott. Hilarious.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 1:19 pm
can we just kick Tasmania out of the federation?

NO FFS! At least no until the forest thingi is worked out.

I reckon Gunns has a 4 buck valuation on it if they manage to scrounge out all the federally covered compensation and they get the pulp mill.

This could send woodchip to 900… 1000 bucks a ton.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 1:22 pm
ken:

ABS changed the method of calculating suicides (in retrospect) for 2008 and 2009.

Well the up trend appears to start in 2006.

I understand that ABS figures under report suicides cf. Coronial findings. Is this what you are referring to?

Almost certainly, the rate did not jump as it appears to do.

I’m not an academic or a statistician, so I can’t rely on inside information.

Paul Williams

30 Aug 10 at 1:45 pm
Katter: ‘Yeah, I was just talking shit when I said I punched up a Liberal.’

Katter clarifies fist fight comments:

When asked by reporters for his thoughts on the alleged smear campaign he said: “One of them threw a punch at me on election night”.

“I’m one of those blokes, you throw one at me and I’ll give you 10 back. And he got 10 back and I haven’t heard from him since. I think a lot of people have told him to shut his mouth.”

But Mr Katter’s office later issued a clarification, saying the statement had been a reference to Mr Katter’s televised row with Nationals leader Warren Truss, and stressing that no punches had been thrown.

Mr Katter also said his office had not received any harassing calls or messages in recent days.

Typical Bob. He’s an old-fashioned, rootin-tootin bar room-a-brawlin’ good ol’ boy. On television.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 1:57 pm
With the race card maxed out, Obama plays the victim card:

“I can’t spend all of my time with my birth certificate plastered on my forehead.”

After all, that’s Trig Palin’s job.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 2:03 pm
“I understand that ABS figures under report suicides cf. Coronial findings. Is this what you are referring to?”
Yes, essentially. ABS did not until this year (for 2008 and 2009) go back and adjust the figures taking account of delayed coroners’ decisions.
So the figures are higher than reported but as the omission happened each year, the trend (downwad) is almost certainly roughly the same.
As I said, a couple of papers by people cleverer than I am are coming.
When that happens I am planning to write a layman’s article on suicide, mental illness and what seems to be good news.

ken n

30 Aug 10 at 2:04 pm
Classic. Saw this graphic over at Gateway Pundit.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 2:08 pm
Tasmania has been good to gamblers – the first legal casino and the first to licence Betfair in Australia.

Wilkie is a wowser, but his gambling stance creates a problem for Labor. They need the clubs to bankroll election campaigns.

asf

30 Aug 10 at 2:15 pm
Tasmania was also the state that offered refuge to George Adams after he’d been chased out of New South Wales and Queensland by erstwhile by religious fanatics like Andrew Wilkie.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 2:24 pm
FDB

To be fair, I don’t recall you ever posting about Noel Pearson as an ‘Uncle Tom” or sneering at other uppity blacks who refuse to work from the luvvie script. But I don’t see you as a paid-up member of the lefty Kim faction over there either.

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 2:32 pm
There’s a difference between the luvvie and Lefty Kim factions?

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 2:41 pm
No. Within LP there are factions. The lefty Kim faction is most postmodernist, multiculti, men and white people are bastards, faction. So, given how supportive they are of the world’s colored people, woe betide any uppity coconut who dares to show cause with the enemy – such as Noel Pearson or Ayaan Hirsi Ali. Mr. Wyatt’s pimping for the enemy – the racist xenophobic, white male Christian Coalition – is an Uncle Tom betrayal.

Perhaps I haven’t been paying close enough attention, but I haven’t noticed FDB as part of that faction.

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 3:12 pm
It was that pig Heffernan who phoned Oakeshott. I am so glad I put that c*** last on my Senate ticket.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/liberal-identified-as-making-rambostyle-devil-call-20100830-140ah.html?autostart=1

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 3:15 pm
How else can you describe the man?

He’d be rooted if he didn’t have a political career behind him.

.

30 Aug 10 at 3:19 pm
I agree, FDB belongs to the ‘relatively sensible’ faction of LP along with Anna Winter and Rob Merkel. Then there’s the Lefty Kim pomo faction and the Apolcalypse Now Brian Bahnisch faction./

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 3:19 pm
Jase:

FDB voted for Adam Ant. He’s just a different shade of Birdie, that’s all… but without the flamboyance

JC

30 Aug 10 at 3:25 pm
AEC site updated 30/08/2010 3:48pm AEST…

# Currently 84.09% of the primary vote has been counted.
# The two party preferred count is 79.80% complete.

2PP is:
* 50.03% ALP
* 49.97% Coalition

Fleeced

30 Aug 10 at 3:54 pm
CL

You flagrantly misrepresented Brooks’ piece in the Times (what a surprise).

You omitted the bit where he says:

The crucial issue is getting the fundamentals right. The Germans are doing better because during the past decade, they took care of their fundamentals and the Americans didn’t.

Who was President for 80% of the past decade?

George W. Bush.

Brooks’ point, you devious twit, is that the stimulus isn’t enough if your infrastructure is screwed. Who screwed US infrastructure with tax cuts for billionaires and costly foreign adventures?

George W. Bush.

Tillman

30 Aug 10 at 4:14 pm
Tillers

3.3 % of the Obama stimulus went to building bridges, tunnels and roads. It was a sham. Hopychange has worsened the situation, which is why he’s a one termer.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 4:17 pm
Step right another odious Lefty Kim faction member.

Ron E – Pearson was the liberals idea of an aboriginal reprsentative. You should know that Pearson is no more than the Howard govts pet to introduce even harsher policies. Shame on Pearson.
The problem of course is the liberals they cant show their true colours. They are really too unpalatable for the ordinary person – hence they used Pearson to be their mouthpiece. Pearson, the new Benelong.

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 4:42 pm
Step right up another pro-democracy III odious Left Kim faction member over at profkwig’n

Ron E – Pearson was the liberals idea of an aboriginal reprsentative. You should know that Pearson is no more than the Howard govts pet to introduce even harsher policies. Shame on Pearson.
The problem of course is the liberals they cant show their true colours. They are really too unpalatable for the ordinary person – hence they used Pearson to be their mouthpiece. Pearson, the new Benelong.

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 4:44 pm
ost people who have studied the question believe that the rate has been trending down over the past ten years. There are a couple of articles on this in course of preparation.
The gun buyback did perhaps contribute to the reduction a bit – but not much – and the most likely prime cause was better treatment of mental illness, especially depression. Remember that about 85% of those committing suicide are suffering from a mental illness.

Yep, seen a number of studies showing a clear correlation between anti-depressant use and suicide reduction. The catch is the first treatment phase, there can be increased risk during the first few months. A psychiatric nurse once told me that this has always been the case with anti-depressant drugs. But why are so many people depressed. We are supposed to be one of the most successful societies in the world and all these sad souls. Nothing compared to the US though, 73% of all anti-depressants are consumed in the USA. Sick, sad puppies.

John H.

30 Aug 10 at 4:47 pm
Pearson, the new Benelong.

wow, just wow

Literally the Australian equivalent of Uncle Tom

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 4:48 pm
John H

Maybe of the category of people depressed, the sub-category that starts on anti-depressants is much more depressed than the sub-category, which doesn’t. On other words, those who start on medication are already closer to suicide.

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 4:56 pm
“Left Kim faction”

Evil Cunts

Rococo Liberal

30 Aug 10 at 5:02 pm
Oops, I left off a ‘y’. The official and proper name is Lefty Kim. Please note in your diary for future reference.

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 5:03 pm
John H
1. I don’t think that it is just antidep use that has driven down the suicide rate. Antidep use is a proxy for treatment. I suspect that the mix of treatments – including sympathetic attention – is the cause. So probably the most significant factor is reduction in the stigma and peoples’ willingness to seek help.
2. The increased risk on starting treatment is fairly well understood. In an episode of major depression the person is immobilized – unable to get motivation to do anything. The medication kicks in over a few weeks and sometimes mobilization comes back before the mood really lifts. that’s the danger period.

There is little doubt that antidep are overprescribed in the US in particular. But they are also underprescribed which is more serious.

PP: Could be.

ken n

30 Aug 10 at 5:12 pm
Pearson, the new Benelong.

wow, just wow

Literally the Australian equivalent of Uncle Tom

Can someone explain that… I’m not up to scratch about the Benelong part.

Is it a reference to how useless they think an aboriginal would be to Auto-Cue MacKew?

Is that what they’re saying

If they are, it is a scientifically proven impossibility.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 5:25 pm
Bennelong (note spelling) was the Eora Aboriginal man who left his tribe to live at the Sydney colony and became a friend of Arthur Phillip where he adopted European ways (including alcohol). He later went to meet George III and acknowledged him as his sovereign.

I guess some might consider him a traitor to his own kind or some such, but it seems very possible he actually preferred European innovations and the idea that someone is locked into the culture they are born with is rather racist in itself.

Quentin George

30 Aug 10 at 5:38 pm
“AEC site updated 30/08/2010 3:48pm AEST…”

It’s 50.02/49.98 now and only 5,000 votes separating them. Seems entirely likely the Coalition 2PP may end up passing the 50% mark.

Quentin George

30 Aug 10 at 5:41 pm
There are still shitloads of votes to count, too. The Libs are going to take the 2PP by anything up to 1%. Thus proving that the nation has rejected Labor and social democracy.

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 5:48 pm
Thanks Quentin. Appreciate the spell check too.

And here I was thinking they’d found religion at LP ..suggesting that no candidate could be worse than Maxine… an over the hill white chick who seems to have been irrationally over-confident about her abilities.

How wrong could I have been

JC

30 Aug 10 at 5:55 pm
“But why are so many people depressed. We are supposed to be one of the most successful societies in the world and all these sad souls.”

Who said success fixes depression? I wonder if the proportion has much changed over the years. I wonder also if now depressed people are less likely to die by misadventure because they are less likely to be driving a death trap while serious drunk or stoned.

pedro

30 Aug 10 at 5:56 pm
Perfect example of why you should never speak too soon.

PM’s two-party lead under threat

TONY Abbott has moved to within about 5000 votes of Julia Gillard in the two-party preferred count, threatening her claim to have won the popular vote.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 6:14 pm
…FDB belongs to the ‘relatively sensible’ faction of LP along with Anna Winter and Rob Merkel.

LOL. What a horrifying thought.

Tillman, there was no “misrepresentation.” (Of which you, of course, are the notorious expert).

I wrote (correctly) that “David Brooks in the NYT slams the stimulus debacle and praises fiscally prudent Germany.”

To wit:

During the first half of this year, German and American political leaders engaged in an epic debate. American leaders argued that the economic crisis was so bad, governments should borrow billions to stimulate growth. German leaders argued that a little short-term stimulus was sensible, but anything more was near-sighted. What was needed was not more debt, but measures to balance budgets and restore confidence.

The debate got pointed. American economists accused German policy makers of risking a long depression. The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, countered, “Governments should not become addicted to borrowing as a quick fix to stimulate demand.”

The two countries followed different policy paths. According to Gary Becker of the University of Chicago, the Americans borrowed an amount equal to 6 percent of G.D.P. in an attempt to stimulate growth. The Germans spent about 1.5 percent of G.D.P. on their stimulus.

This divergence created a natural experiment. Who was right?

The early returns suggest the Germans were. The American stimulus package was supposed to create a “summer of recovery,” according to Obama administration officials. Job growth was supposed to be surging at up to 500,000 a month. Instead, the U.S. economy is scuffling along.

The German economy, on the other hand, is growing at a sizzling (and obviously unsustainable) 9 percent annual rate. Unemployment in Germany has come down to pre-crisis levels.

Contrary to your spin, he doesn’t mention Bush once.

Not once.

Not ‘Bushitler’ either.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 6:17 pm
It’s 50.02/49.98 now and only 5,000 votes separating them. Seems entirely likely the Coalition 2PP may end up passing the 50% mark.

How wonderful! And delivered by a candidate the ‘cognescenti’ believed was unelectable.

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 6:18 pm
Speaking of ‘Benelongs’, coconuts and Uncle Toms, Martin Luther King Jr’s niece addressed the Palin-Beck rally at the weekend. I’m delightfully surprised she wasn’t shot by an Obama zombie with an LP-like case of Black Fella Him Go Walk-About Long Ways From Lefty Reservation Syndrome.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 6:27 pm
The Australian is reporting:

Julia Gillard’s two-party preferred lead under threat.

With that Gillard quote from last week:

“It now appears clear that Labor has won the two-party vote. That means the majority of Australians who voted yesterday prefer a Labor government. I think this is a critical fact to weigh in the coming days.”

A critical fact. So if the Coalition wins on 2PP (as it won easily on primaries) and has more seats than the ALP, how can Gillard possibly go to Yarralumla and not tell the Governor-General that she has lost the election and that Mrs Bryce should ask Tony Abbott to form a government?

If she doesn’t, how would her ‘government’ not be an illegitimate junta?

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 6:45 pm
Now it’s 5,333,979 for ALP vs. 5,329,430 for Coalition.

4500 or so.

Quentin George

30 Aug 10 at 6:54 pm
“I can’t spend all of my time with my birth certificate plastered on my forehead.”

Egad! Give it up already.

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 7:02 pm
ALP presently ahead by just 61 votes 2PP. Not long now

Gillard was claiming last week that she was entitled to govern because she won the 2PP. I wonder if she’ll resign when it drops below 50 percent?

Fleeced

30 Aug 10 at 7:02 pm
So if the Coalition wins on 2PP (as it won easily on primaries) and has more seats than the ALP, how can Gillard possibly go to Yarralumla and not tell the Governor-General that she has lost the election and that Mrs Bryce should ask Tony Abbott to form a government?

Neither party has won. Whoever can convince 3 or 4 of the non-mainstream MPs to support them will form a government. End of. The Greens are unlikely to support Abbott, if they throw in with Gillard tha’s 73 each. So whomever gets 3 of the independents to stick up their hand will win.

Personally I’d like that never to happen. Just think how far we could go without a government getting in the way.

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 7:07 pm
Now 61 votes in it!

Tick tock tick tock tick tock!

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 7:10 pm
Trouble for the the great-great-great-great-granddaughter of Captain William Bligh:

Anna Bligh faces mutiny as MPs revolt on asset sales.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 7:10 pm
2PP down to 36 votes.

Sinclair Davidson

30 Aug 10 at 7:15 pm
Worth a reminder that the 2PP is pretty meaningless figure – since more than 2 parties had candidates elected. How would you calculate 2PP for other seats? What about the WA seat where the 2 finalist candidates were both Coalition? Does this count as 100% vote for Coalition?

Fleeced

30 Aug 10 at 7:15 pm
Michael,
That number will jump around (probably by up to about 50 or 60 thousand votes at a time) for the next month or so as the AEC slowly gets through the full preference distribution from the seats that did not result in a “clean” ALP vs. Coalition TPP count. That said, I expect it to end up marginally in favour of the coalition due to the seats that have now been excluded.
Julia was bloody stupid to say that on the night, though – it shows that neither her advisors nor she understood the way the count was running.
The one on the night is probably much closer to the real figure as the AEC starts off in all seats on an ALP / Coalition TPP in most seats.
Once you add in the good return on the postals for the coalition I would think the numbers will favour them by a reasonable number.

Andrew Reynolds

30 Aug 10 at 7:15 pm
“Now it’s 5,333,979 for ALP vs. 5,329,430 for Coalition.”

It will be close but those figures need a little caution as they exclude results from a number of seats where the final preferences weren’t decided between ALP/Coalition. Seats like Melbourne, Dennison, Grayndler, Kennedy, New England, etc came down to a major vs minor/independent so a 2PP result can’t be simply drawn from the final 2CP for a given seat.

badm0f0

30 Aug 10 at 7:16 pm
Fleeced,
No – the AEC eventually release the full preference flow which allows a completely correct TPP flow to be calculated.
Once that is done then the AEC figure will be correct – and not until then.

Andrew Reynolds

30 Aug 10 at 7:17 pm
Odd (and ironic): Liberals won Brisbane and Hasluck on Greens preferences.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 7:22 pm
The Coalition are ahead on 2PP by a touch under 500 votes!

It is now official. The nation has rejected Labor.

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 7:28 pm
Now coalition ahead by about 500 votes.

Sinclair Davidson

30 Aug 10 at 7:29 pm
Here they are:

Australian Labor Party 5,339,343 50.00 -2.70
Liberal/National Coalition 5,339,839 50.00 +2.70

A crushing loss for Labor and a humiliating rejection for Gillard.

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 7:29 pm
SNAP!

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 7:29 pm
Adrien, my point (contention, speculation, question, whatever) is this: isn’t there a distinct point in time when you’ve lost and therefore have to advise the Governor-General accordingly; and that your opponent has the superior claim to being given the opportunity to test a government on the House floor?

If Gillard lost by five seats, for example, she couldn’t tell the G-G that she might be able to muster up a government with enough regional horse-trading and pork-barrelling. If you lose, you lose.

If, by the chief criteria, Gillard has lost, why is any modus vivendi with ‘independents’ even relevant beyond the Lose Point?

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 7:29 pm
Adrien, my point (contention, speculation, question, whatever) is this: isn’t there a distinct point in time when you’ve lost and therefore have to advise the Governor-General accordingly?

Sure. But despite the hyperbole here there’s no crushing defeat of Labor. The electorate has failed to mandate either side.

If, by the chief criteria, Gillard has lost, why is any modus vivendi with ‘independents’ even relevant beyond the Lose Point?

Because by the chief criteria it’s a hung parliament. And in a hung parliament the government that forms will be so on the basis of the Independents’ vote of confidence.

The margin by which the 2PP is won is so slender it’s hard for either side to claim any victory, right? Considering the heterogenous mix of independents I wouldn’t be surprised if the GG was forced to dissolve parliament twice in ’10.

If this does not happen and the Independents form a coalition with one side or the other it’s no cause for celebration amongst partisans of that side. Any government that forms will be forced to put undue resoruces into things close to at least three independents’ heart probably at the expense of the rest of us and for all that won’t be able tio do anything else much.

Probably less stressfull working triage in Rwanda then being PM right now.

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 7:39 pm
“But despite the hyperbole here there’s no crushing defeat of Labor.”

In 1932 the ALP could rightly blame the Depression and the ongoing malaise suffered by democratic nations around the world for their startling loss.

In 2010 the humiliating situation Gillard finds herself is entirely of the ALP’s own making.

Quentin George

30 Aug 10 at 7:43 pm
Coalition now thumping Labor on national 2PP by 635 votes. It’s a landslide defeat for Labor.

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 7:43 pm
In 2010 the humiliating situation Gillard finds herself is entirely of the ALP’s own making.

Yeah I’d agree there.

Coalition now thumping Labor on national 2PP by 635 votes. It’s a landslide defeat for Labor.

635 votes is a landslide? Jay-sus!

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 7:49 pm
If, by the chief criteria, Gillard has lost, why is any modus vivendi with ‘independents’ even relevant beyond the Lose Point?

Surely the simple answer to this is that she’s hoping to form a minority government.

daddy dave

30 Aug 10 at 7:52 pm
In 2010 the humiliating situation Gillard finds herself is entirely of the ALP’s own making.

Not entirely.

This is the first time anything like this has been seen in 80 years.

Magnanimity please: acknowledge Abbott.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 7:58 pm
DD

Not only the simple answer, but the only one consistent with constitutional convention.

If she threw in the towel only days after both major parties have agreed to requests from the Independents to negotiate, the Governor-General would be entitled to ask what on earth she was doing. And to refuse any request for a dissolution of Parliament.

Taylor

30 Aug 10 at 7:59 pm
But despite the hyperbole here there’s no crushing defeat of Labor.

This doesn’t answer my quetsion. Which was:

Isn’t there a distinct point in time when you’ve lost and therefore have to advise the Governor-General accordingly; and that your opponent has the superior claim to being given the opportunity to test a government on the House floor?

You don’t have to experience a “crushing defeat” to lose. Lose is lose.

The margin by which the 2PP is won is so slender it’s hard for either side to claim any victory, right?

Not according to Gillard who last week claimed Labor’s (as she then believd) 2PP was the “critical fact.”

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 8:02 pm
Meant:

Not according to Gillard who last week claimed Labor’s 2PP win (as she then believed) was the “critical fact.”

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 8:03 pm
That wasn’t exactly your question CL. Yes there is a point where you’ve lost. But in this event that point is reached, not by a slender 2PP figure that still renders parliament hung, but by the cross benchers decision as to where they’ll hang their hat.

You don’t have to experience a “crushing defeat” to lose. Lose is lose.

No you don’t. But there’s no crushing defeat here.

Not according to Gillard who last week claimed Labor’s (as she then believd) 2PP was the “critical fact.

According to Rudd the government’s done a great job. Should I believe that as well?

Gillard’s gaff is just the latest in a long line of talking before you’re thinking. I don’t know who the independents will go for. But according to my slender understanding of them I reckon Abbott will pick up the numbers he needs.

Which is just as well. A mediocrity is better than a shambles.

Adrien

30 Aug 10 at 8:08 pm
Not according to Gillard

Yes, but she was talking out of her arse. It was a lame argument.

daddy dave

30 Aug 10 at 8:15 pm
2PP margin is now out to over 1,700 votes in the Coalition’s favour. Labor have been smashed, gutted, pummelled, destroyed, beaten, whipped, pounded, slapped silly… They must vacate the Treasury benches and make way for Prime Minister Abbott immediately.

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 8:29 pm
But there’s no crushing defeat here.

Historically, for a first term government, it is a crushing defeat.

Leaving that aside, my point is that while either side can horse-trade for crossbench support, why does Gillard have a right to do that – and advise Yarralumla accordingly – when her party lost the 2PP and the primaries and has less seats?

I know she can try to muster a few votes and that she conceivably will muster them. But should she not advise the G-G that her party in fact lost in two party terms and that Tony Abbott should now be called upon to form and test a government?

Beyond another 72 hours, this will start to look like Gillard drawing things out to assuage and placate – and be extorted by – ‘independents.’

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 8:32 pm
Magnanimity please: acknowledge Abbott.

Cl, please use the correct title. It’s Prime Minster Abbott. Fisk is doing the right thing I see.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 8:35 pm
Three cheers for Abbott. Hip hip Hurray!…

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 8:40 pm
Yes, I think congratulations are in order to PM Abbott and wish him the best of luck.

PM, please could you fire Ken Henry asap.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 8:45 pm
Let me rephrase that.

Please fire Harry’s buddy, Ken Henry asap.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 8:46 pm
Whitten to Abbott:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWkJhsv0Mto

Amen.

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 8:47 pm
I wouldn’t get too excited boys. The ALP 2PP dropped today because theyve temporarily excluded certain seats.

The TPP vote count figure is a summation of the TCP vote count figures from all seats where the two TCP candidates are from the ALP and the Coalition. It excludes TCP vote count figures for either the ALP or the Coalition from seats where one, or both, of the TCP candidates is not from either the ALP or the Coalition – in the 2010 election these seats are Batman, Denison, Grayndler, Kennedy, Lyne, Melbourne, New England and O’Connor. TPP figures for these divisions will not be available until a ‘scrutiny for information’ is done after vote counting is finalised. In a scrutiny for information each of the formal ballot papers is allocated to either the ALP or Coalition candidate depending on which candidate got the highest preference on the ballot paper.

http://www.aec.gov.au/election/vtr.htm#tcptpp

Peter Patton

30 Aug 10 at 8:57 pm
Poor Jools, imagine having this mess on you CV

tal

30 Aug 10 at 9:02 pm
Peter,
Which is just what I said a little further up.

Andrew Reynolds

30 Aug 10 at 9:07 pm
Bolt:

Gillard must lose now that Abbott wins the preferred vote, too.

Oops. Gillard’s argument just imploded. In fact, her argument now means that the independents have no moral alternative to making Abbott Prime Minister…

So the Three Amigos must now consider the following facts. Tony Abbott’s Coalition:

- won the most votes
- won the most seats, 73 to 72
- won the most votes, after preferences
- won the most support in the three independents’ seats, as measured by the Senate vote
- won the most support in the three independents’ seats, as measured by two polls since the election.

Stated simply, if Gillard is given what Bob Katter likes to call “the gong,” Hulio Gillardez will be the leader of an illegitimate junta.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:12 pm
Poor Jools, imagine having this mess on you CV.

HAHAHAHA! I’ll update it, Tal:

- Typist – Socialist Party and lesbian action committee.
- Ambulance chaser (Slater & Gordon).
- Staffer, John Brumby’s office.
- Labor MP – Opposition.
- Deputy Prime Minister: laptop rollout, BER rollout, insulation rollout, surplus elimination.
- Prime Minister: called election, lost.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:18 pm
I hope revenge is served ice cold to these slaphead independents. Nothing would please me more than seeing that mouth breathing, window licker, Crapshoot lose his seat.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 9:21 pm
I’m not sure that makes much difference Peter. Of the eight not being counted at the moment (2PP), four are conservative-leaning (Kennedy, Lyne, New England and O’Connor) and four are left leaning (Batman, Denison, Grayndler, Melbourne).

So the drop in the count for Labor 2PP is being shadowed by a drop in the count for the Coalition 2PP.

Coalition edges ahead in vote: AEC.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:28 pm
Okay, CL, I get it. Abbott, not Gillard, should be allowed first stab at forming government.

daddy dave

30 Aug 10 at 9:29 pm
How many votes are there left to count?

tal

30 Aug 10 at 9:30 pm
If Gillard loses and there’s a spill for ALP leadership I’m wondering if DC’s going to try and convince them with the following spiel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYabrQrXt4A&feature=related

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 9:34 pm
Dover the fall-out will be pretty to watch

tal

30 Aug 10 at 9:40 pm
Fredo Swan! HAHAHAHAHA!

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:41 pm
Preview of the fall-out here, Tal:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eu3DWJjYP0&feature=fvsr

(Also interesting: a Tridentine baptism – the only way to do it).

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:43 pm
Oops. Try this one, Tal:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC1-6nDGRfc&feature=related

The YouTuber ruined the first one with a musical overdub. Idiot.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:46 pm
I’ve always loved that scene Lad, the ALP will make it look like bingo night at the RSL

tal

30 Aug 10 at 9:47 pm
Rudd’s daughter is on Q&A . She even talks like dad. This sounds awfully like some genetic disposition.

That stupid bint Wallace is on. Jeezus.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 9:47 pm
Christine Wallace looks like she was born with the help of a jack Hammer.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 9:49 pm
Don’t watch it Joe it makes people crazy

tal

30 Aug 10 at 9:49 pm
Fredo Swan! Brilliant, Dover!

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 9:50 pm
Oh forget it. The second one is spliced with Jedi scenes.

??

Here it REALLY is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn8yjFjuLJ4

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 9:52 pm
Gotta watch it Tal. It’s like a Monday night car accident.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 9:52 pm
I made the mistake of watching the Godfather movies all the way through not long ago. Godfather III must be the worst sequel in movie history. Things that suck that much usually have pimps.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 9:53 pm
Cardinal Pell has communicated to Pope Benedict XVI that Abbott is now ahead on the 2PP. He is said to be very pleased:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1F8yreJ1x8&feature=related

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 9:55 pm
QandA plays havoc with my blood presure

tal

30 Aug 10 at 9:57 pm
Why does Q and A keep bringing Fraser back? That turkey who said Abbott wasn’t ready to govern, but Mugabe was, isn’t the only tame former liberal around.

Sinclair Davidson

30 Aug 10 at 9:59 pm
Can anyone on earth fill out a frock better than Christina Hendricks?:

http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/entertainment/tv-and-radio/2010-emmy-awards-red-carpet/20100830-13y4p.html?selectedImage=1

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 9:59 pm
DC:

‘I WAS PASSED OVER. I’M SMART – NOT DUMB LIKE EVERYONE SAYS – AND I WANT SOME RESPECT!!‘

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 10:00 pm
Yea I know. Fatty Jones is obviously pulling a fast one there, Sinc. He wants a token pretend conservative on .

Who the hell is that idiot from Melbourne Uni. FFS the academy is falling in a heap. The dude a complete turkey. What’s with the hair too. How do you tease out hair like that without doing it for hours.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:02 pm
Fraser and Turnbull are the only acceptable Q&A Libs.

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 10:02 pm
“Rudd’s daughter is on Q&A . She even talks like dad.”

JC –

It’s some sort of quirk of the Socialist Republic of Queensland ( as famously described by KRudd himself ).

I have seen whole rooms full of Qld bureaucrats all talking like that. Terrifying – they are cloning.

Myrddin Seren

30 Aug 10 at 10:03 pm
Jones should be fired. He’s a total prick.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:03 pm
Why does Q and A keep bringing Fraser back?

Is that Fraser? I thought it was a corpse.

Can anyone on earth fill out a frock better than Christina Hendricks?

Probably not, IT. She has a body for the ages.

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 10:04 pm
what are you politics tragics doing watching Q&A when you can watch Piper Perabo shake her spook booty on channel 7?

http://au.tv.yahoo.com/plus7/covert-affairs/

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 10:04 pm
Any good Jason?

Infidel Tiger

30 Aug 10 at 10:06 pm
The real question is.. Will Fraser make it though the program DB?

In fact that’s an idea for Jones .. from now one he should only invite dead Libs.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:06 pm
And Christine Wallace is on, the angry women on the far left of the panel (next to Costello) of Nine’s election coverage. Like Steve from B, she’s talking about the ETS.

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 10:07 pm
Bint Wallace thinks that the ETS would have returned back to power.

Climate change again.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:08 pm
yes, I’ve seen the last 2 episodes so far and I’m enjoying it. late start tonight (just about to start) due to a longer episode of criminal minds.

jtfsoon

30 Aug 10 at 10:08 pm
Good on Berg for giving her a rabbit punch.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:08 pm
Christine Wallace: the face of modern feminism.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 10:10 pm
This melb uni prof is a total reverse Einstein. The hair.. FFS.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:11 pm
Rudd’s daughter is now plugging dad. She’s as loonie as he is.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:17 pm
Phil263 comments at LP Hung Parliament Round Table:

I think a 2 PP in favour of the coalition even slightly would be the finmal nail in Labor’s coffin.

The coalition has now 73 (since Tony Crook is now sitting with his Nationals mates) vs Labor 72
Three independents are frm rural constituencies who would kick them out next time round if they sided with labor.
73 + 3 = 76 : Abbott has a majority
Unfortunately these are the facts. We may be unhappy about this(I certainly am) but we will have to come to term with the fact that Abbott will be PM by the end of the week. Labor has squandered its 2007 victory.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 10:17 pm
Fraser is such a poisonous fuck. He’s now saying the Rudd government was a success but didn’t sell it’s successes well enough to the public.

He couldn’t bring himself to accept or even mention the legacy of the Howard Government. What a total and complete douchebag.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:20 pm
The lot of them are a motley crew

tal

30 Aug 10 at 10:22 pm
Berg is okay, Tal.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:24 pm
Bint Wallace brings up…. Climate change policy.

(why do I watch this show).

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:25 pm
Yeah Berg is Ok I guess.I told you not to watch it JC

tal

30 Aug 10 at 10:28 pm
what are you politics tragics doing watching Q&A

not watching QandA – watching Berg.

Sinclair Davidson

30 Aug 10 at 10:37 pm
not watching QandA – watching Berg.

hahahahahha Yea I was too. Berg was pretty good. Next time he needs to hit a little harder for his side.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:41 pm
Wallace could not stop talking about the ETS; it was incredible. But then what can you expect from a person that judged the 2010 federal election “a real indictment of the Abbott leadership”.

dover_beach

30 Aug 10 at 10:41 pm
Wilkie now backing down and says that he doesn’t have demands and not demands.

Wilkie shouldn’t be marked labor necessarily

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:43 pm
oops

doesn’t have demands but priorities.

JC

30 Aug 10 at 10:44 pm
I was a bit put off with Glenn Beck’s oration – not per se but vis-a-vis the overaching secular task du jour qua Tea Party, that of re-building America’s government-averse enterprising culture.

Tim Cavanaugh at Reason had similar reservations but counsels libertarians thus:

It’s understandable that you don’t want to lose all your invitations, and the dismissive pose toward Beck stems from a well founded fear my fellow rootless cosmopolitans have — that if we seem too close to the cars-on-cinderblocks, chicken-coops-in-yards, shotguns-and-rockingchairs variety of libertarianism, we will lose the respect of liberaloids in New York and D.C. It’s a real concern, but if the trade-off means you reject the Tea Parties — by far the biggest popular movement with a clear anti-government mood that has occurred in my lifetime – and in exchange you get to be comfortable at table with David Frum, well, that deal sounds like a loser to me.

I think he overstates what a “concern” it is for intellectual libertarians to be on the same side as the great Scotch-Irish anti-government hillbillies of yore but the trade-off he identifies is, to me, spot on.

C.L.

30 Aug 10 at 11:00 pm
Abbott now more than 1,900 votes ahead on national 2PP. He has defeated the government. What a glorious day this is!

Michael Fisk

30 Aug 10 at 11:01 pm
what are you politics tragics doing watching Q&A when you can watch Piper Perabo shake her spook booty on channel 7?

http://au.tv.yahoo.com/plus7/covert-affairs/

I watched both episodes and enjoyed it too. The moral of tonight’s episode: America good, South American political leaders evil.

daddy dave

30 Aug 10 at 11:38 pm
C.L.,
As the incumbent PM, Julia should get first dibs at forming a government – it is her advice that the conventions say the GG should take.
Of course, if the three amigos declare that they will not support a Gillard government then Julia should hand in her commission and advise the GG to call on Abbott.
.
Michael / C.L.,
I would advise you not to make the same mistake that Julia did on the TPP vote – it will bounce around a lot over the next few weeks. Once the full count is done is when we will know that result – not before. Calling it one way or the other on that basis just makes you look at foolish as Julia did when she made that statement.

Andrew Reynolds

31 Aug 10 at 1:14 am
“Calling it one way or the other on that basis just makes you look at foolish as Julia did when she made that statement.’

Well, yes, and Nick Minchin before Julia. But CL and Michael are not political leaders. They can enjoy a glorious day, even if it is just one day, and with no material consequencies.

Boris

31 Aug 10 at 1:22 am
but julie Bishop repeated the same call today. They just can’t help themselves.

Boris

31 Aug 10 at 1:23 am
As I noted above, of the eight seats not being counted at the moment (2PP), four are conservative-leaning (Kennedy, Lyne, New England and O’Connor) and four are left leaning (Batman, Denison, Grayndler, Melbourne).

So the drop in the count for Labor 2PP is being matched by a drop in the count for the Coalition 2PP.

Peter’s original point – “The ALP 2PP dropped today because they’ve temporarily excluded certain seats” – emphasised this as exclusively affecting the Labor 2PP, which is obviously false.

There seems to be a trend that a resumption in those eight seats won’t alter but I don’t claim to be a statistician or psephologist so I’m open to any argument that addresses the abovementioned.

I don’t think it’s a question of “first dibs at forming a government” where two sides might conceivably do so but where one – the Coalition – has a superior claim pursuant to (perhaps) four criteria: 1) primaries; 2) 2PP; 3) seats; 4) overwhelming preference in the three ex-Nationals’ seats.

That’s why I asked the question: if Julia Gillard has lost vis-a-vis the Coalition, how is it that she can avoid advising the G-G accordingly and counselling her to ask Abbott to form a government?

‘First dibs’ doesn’t seem to answer the question very convincingly.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:37 am
I’m just getting a kick out of this stuff. It’s the wackiest election EVER.

Michael Fisk

31 Aug 10 at 1:40 am
The Australian:

JULIA Gillard’s claim to government on the basis of winning the two-party-preferred vote in the election has collapsed, with the Coalition overtaking Labor last night by almost 2000 votes.

Tony Abbott has begun preparing to capitalise on his gains with plans to give a greater share of government spending to rural and regional Australia to appeal to the three rural-based independent MPs whose support he needs to form a government.

Tony Abbott offers bush deal as Julia Gillard mandate slips.

The ABC:

The Coalition has pulled ahead in the two-party preferred vote as three key independents held more talks with party leaders in an effort to decide who to support.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard had been using Labor’s two-party preferred lead as a reason why four independent MPs should back her party to form a minority government.

But that argument may have disintegrated, with the latest election figures showing the Coalition now holds a lead of more than 1900 votes on a two-party preferred basis.

Coalition snatches vote lead from Labor.

So it’s a bit churlish to say it’s all about somebody’s “glorious day,” Boris.

Anyway, I’ve mostly just asked questions for discussion’s sake and don’t claim to know the actuality in either the electoral or the constitutional matter.

However, bear this in mind: Gillard was not arguing that Labor had won the 2PP, period. She was arguing that it was in front at the time and that this was the pre-eminent fact undergirding the negotiations with independents that immediately followed. As that negotiation process is a fluid situation – with possible decisions to be made by independents quite regardless of the absolute final 2PP – it is perfectly reasonable for Bishop and Liberals to emphasise the alteration in the 2PP vis-a-vis current negotiations and discussions. She would certainly be mistaken to sit on her hands waiting for the absolute final 2PP – for two reasons. First, if Labor does come back to win it, 2PP will by then be invested with a mystical and, arguably, bogus authority as determining factor. And second, the potency of deals being made now by Abbott might be less alluring and attention-worthy. The independents, that is, are being gently encouraged to choose – something I believe (and a few of them have said that they believe) they have to do before the absolute close of counting in several days’ time.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:58 am
I don’t think it’s a question of “first dibs at forming a government” where two sides might conceivably do so but where one – the Coalition – has a superior claim pursuant to (perhaps) four criteria: 1) primaries; 2) 2PP; 3) seats; 4) overwhelming preference in the three ex-Nationals’ seats.

My understanding is that in the case of a hung parliament, the GG’s course of action has nothing to do with 2PP vote, primary vote, or preferences in the Indies’ seats. Gillard gets ‘first dibs’ as a matter of process, since she is already PM.

THR

31 Aug 10 at 2:02 am
Hypothetical: does ‘first dibs’ mean a Prime Minister who loses by, say, three seats is free to advise the G-G that he intends to woo notoriously miffed rogues on the other side in order to have a go at forming a government?

If not, why not?

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:15 am
CL, theoretically yes. But this will extremely unlikely to work and very likely to damage the PM and fatally damage these rogues.

But this can happen any time, not necessarily immeidiately after an election. Suppose party A has 76 and party B 74. Party A naturally starts ot govern. Suppose 3 rogues from A decide to support B. They joint B in the vote of no-confidence in A. A resigns and B is appointed PM.

Boris

31 Aug 10 at 2:45 am
Actually, if Labor has a dig and fails (which they are likely to), it is even better for the Libs.

Boris

31 Aug 10 at 2:46 am
Excellent article by Paul Sheehan:

Read it to understand why the three ex-Nationals cannot conceivably support Labor.

Independents’ support for Labor would betray rural folk.

Bonus: amusing opening anecdote about the night Sheehan took Katter out for dinner at the Royal Hotel in Paddington.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 3:16 am
Here comes Tony ….

PM Julia Gillard’s mandate slips as Tony Abbott offers the bush a deal

http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/pm-julia-gillards-mandate-slips-as-tony-abbott-offers-the-bush-a-deal/story-fn5tas5k-1225912128084

—–

The independents can’t support Labor. Labor doesn’t deserve to stay in power. Useless. May as well give the Mad Monk a go.

John H.

31 Aug 10 at 4:17 am
“My understanding is that in the case of a hung parliament, the GG’s course of action has nothing to do with 2PP vote, primary vote, or preferences in the Indies’ seats. Gillard gets ‘first dibs’ as a matter of process, since she is already PM.”

You are mixing up the idea of whose in charge with what is the right thing to do. In a major fire no doubt the chief fireman may be in charge in some jurisdictions. Doesn’t mean he ought to go out of his way to burn everything down. If the independents support the Coalition, clearly they will be the legitimate winners.

Now it may be that the Governor Generals powers allow her to deny the legitimate winners of the election. This ought to be considered to be neither here nor there. If the Governor General misused her powers to that extent, then the independents, combined with the coalition, would wind up forcing a new election sooner rather than later, to overturn such an obvious usurpation.

It ought not be considered an ambiguous situation if the independents support the coalition. It really does look like we have a winner. And the GG isn’t going to protect Julia and prevent her son-in-law taking the leadership of the Labour party after watching Julia go through a slow and drawn-out death.

karl

31 Aug 10 at 4:56 am
THR is correct.

The constitutional conventions predate the extension of the franchise in Britain, let alone two-party preferreds (the latter presupposing the existence of disciplined parties).

The King didn’t give a damn what the electors thought, only that he had a government with a majority in the Commons. That way he could get on as normal, carrying Crown business through the legislature – an unfortunate necessity since the Glorious Revolution.

For similar historical reasons the Governor-General’s powers are not fettered by ideas of accountability. They are a last vestige of uncontrolled autocracy, essentially undemocratic and unaccountable.

I read an international socialist diatribe the other day that understood this stuff pretty well – those guys know their history.

Taylor

31 Aug 10 at 6:31 am
Harry in the news

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/the-vote-that-dares-not-speak-its-name/story-fn59niix-1225910724146

Meet Harry Clarke, an economist who has voted conservative for 30 years. He’s a member of the Liberal Party and can usually be counted on to distribute how-to-vote cards on polling day. When a campaign official rang several weeks ago to assign him a booth: “I said, ‘No. I’m voting Green.’ She said, ‘Climate change isn’t an issue for Liberal voters.’ I said, ‘It is with me.’ I couldn’t support the Liberal candidate. I normally do it but I wouldn’t on this occasion and I won’t until they change,” he argues.

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 8:56 am
sorry fellas the current 2PP votes put out by the AEC is meaningless as they implied.

See pollbludger why.

The G/G by political convention will ALWAYS ask the current PM if they can form a Government when all parties can only form a minority Government.

If the current PM can , then all is fine.
If they cannot than the G/G wil ask the leader of the party of the largest seats.

If Gillard canot form government then the G/G will then ask Abbott if he can.
The problem is it is currently 72/72 on the notional count.

In our situation the G/G wil ask Gillard. at this time Gillard will know whether she has the numbers or not.
She wil advise the G/G she cannot or she may wish to find out in Parliament.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 9:06 am
My understanding is that first action is always by incumbent PM. She either advises GG that she has the numbers, or tenders her resignation. In case of the former, her numbers will be tested on the floor of the parliament (ie, the GG doesn’t go checking up with independents). With one of the votes locked up as speaker, things could get interesting…

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 9:21 am
BTW Butters, I agree the 2PP is meaningless, as it always is – but it was Gillard who claimed the 2PP figure gave her some legitimacy.

It’s funny the number of lefties I’ve spoken to who suddenly find the 2PP meaningless, whereas they previously didn’t seem to think so… Should it swing back, I wonder if they’ll change their mind again?

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 9:25 am
Actually, if Labor has a dig and fails (which they are likely to), it is even better for the Libs.

Yes, but to quote the old saying, “never give a sucker an even break.”

daddy dave

31 Aug 10 at 9:50 am
Hey Jason, did you notice Nick Gruen making this comment:

“So Oh Troppodillians, I’m heading to Washington DC next week and my son Alexander is going to Paris the next week (this is pretty normal for us – we’re very cool people – very very cool).”

I know (or hope) he was being self-deprecating, but it still made me laugh.

http://clubtroppo.com.au/2010/08/30/sim-cards-abroad/

steve from brisbane

31 Aug 10 at 9:53 am
“Actually, if Labor has a dig and fails (which they are likely to), it is even better for the Libs.”

What’s more if Labor has a dig and succeeds (at running the country well), that’ll be a good thing too, right? Right???

The only bad outcome for a dyed-in-the-wool, couldn’t give a shit about the actual running of the country type person is for their side to form government and fail. So all such people should be rooting for the other team.

FDB

31 Aug 10 at 9:55 am
not per se but vis-a-vis the overaching secular task du jour qua Tea Party

Does google offer a service that would translate this from Pretentious into English?

Tillman

31 Aug 10 at 10:14 am
What’s more if Labor has a dig and succeeds (at running the country well), that’ll be a good thing too, right? Right???

Yes it would.
But there’s another scenario that some of us think is more likely than that. They’d continue to mess things up, yet cling to power for another couple of years.

daddy dave

31 Aug 10 at 10:25 am
Does google offer a service that would translate this from Pretentious into English?

Is English for Dummies a Google book? Well, you asked for it Tillman.

dover_beach

31 Aug 10 at 10:38 am
No Fleeced the current 2PP numbers put out by the AEC is meaningless.

the 2PP vote once everything is dusted down will not be.
go to the pollbludger ans he explains it well. The AEC always do it this way every election it is just because this one is so tight people here and elsewhere are making basic mistakes when commenting about the figure.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 10:40 am
What’s more if Labor has a dig and succeeds (at running the country well), that’ll be a good thing too, right? Right???

This sounds awfully similar to “Labor deserves a second chance”.

dover_beach

31 Aug 10 at 10:42 am
Sorry DB but that was a rimshot FAIL.

Try working smarter, not harder.

Tillman

31 Aug 10 at 10:43 am
so now that possum has left you’re spruiking pollbludger, homes?

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 10:47 am
btw are you conversant with URLs, homes?

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 10:50 am
If you give a URL, you generally have to accurately represent people’s points because its so easy to track down. A vague verbal description is much more Homers style as it may take someone hours of searches to try to determine the truth and they generally won’t bother.

Steve Edney

31 Aug 10 at 11:00 am
No Fleeced the current 2PP numbers put out by the AEC is meaningless.

the 2PP vote once everything is dusted down will not be.

No Butters, they’re always meaningless. Well, ok – not completely… it can be useful useful in seeing that there’s no excessive gerrymandering, but not for much else.

The seat of O’Connor was between Libs and Nats on 2CP – should that be counted 100% Coalition?

The AEC can fudge a number in the indie seats by comparing Liberal and ALP and eliminating other candidates – but this is still a fudged figure (and in cases where Lib and Nat both run as in O’Connor, would likely produce different 2PP depending on whether they do a Labor-Liberal, or Labor-Nat comparison)

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 11:06 am
Fleeced

There is a gerrymander in NSW, where the Coalition got 51% of the 2PP votes and Labor got 26 out of 48 seats.

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 11:08 am
The point is that 600K more people gave their first preference to the Coalition. The fact that Labor came back into contention on prefs means diddly squat if you are looking at which way the indies should jump on confidence and supply votes.

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 11:14 am
“Does google offer a service that would translate this from Pretentious into English?”

You have to expect a certain level of pomposity from CL. I think the only loanword commonly used by him but not in that sentence was ‘contra’.

Jarrah

31 Aug 10 at 11:23 am
Picture of the day: two Harvard graduates attempt to solve a perplexing mobility and transference dilemma.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 11:43 am
The coming existential apocalypse for the 2PP:

“the 2PP vote once everything is dusted down will not be.”

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 11:50 am
Homer sounds like Yoda after a night on the sherry.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 11:56 am
Cardinal Pell has communicated to Pope Benedict XVI that Abbott is now ahead on the 2PP. He is said to be very pleased

I most sincerely hope Mr Abbott proves a bitter disappointment.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 11:59 am
2PP or not 2PP, that is the question

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 12:04 pm
The point is that 600K more people gave their first preference to the Coalition.

600 000? I thought it was a little over 600?

Apparently Tony Abbott thinks his mob is ‘longer in Opposition’. What does that mean exactly?

He doesn’t call victory (because there isn’t one for anybody) but he says that the caretaker government is no longer legitimate which is a bit of a worry because that’s not his call. And, on the basis of a margin so narrow it makes Kennedy v Nixon look like a landslide, he claims legitimacy.

He and everyone here should know full well that no-one in the major parties is going to decide what the next government will be.

Maybe we should have Julia’s Jabberfest of the Average Slobs and work it out that way.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 12:06 pm
Statman possum hasn’t left and this is pollbludger’s raison detre.

clearly people here like to operate in ignorance so let continue.
pollbludger’s blog should be compulsory reading in these times.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 12:10 pm
The Coalition got 600K more first preferences Adrien, not 2pp.

Keep up, there’s a love

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 12:12 pm
2PP now swings back to ALP…

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 12:13 pm
Homer,
As much as I respect William, I don’t think that his blog will determine the next government – and even if it did making it compulsory would be a little over the top.
.
Adrien,
I think you have missed the difference between the first preference and TPP vote results.

Andrew Reynolds

31 Aug 10 at 12:14 pm
Homer

Can’t you summarise what Poll Bludger is saying about 2PP?

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 12:18 pm
both Mumbles and Antony Green make the same point.

Andrew I didn’t say it was the main reason for making a Government.

People such as those here, who mistakenly said the Liberals and National Party have a majority of the 2PP vote are badly wrong and we wil not know for probably several weeks.

however it is more likely the ALP will have the majority of the 2PP vote.

If Julie Bishop says something you can be fairly sure it is wrong.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 12:18 pm
2PP or not 2PP indeed, Horatio. Julia Gillard – the worst Prime Minister since Kevin Rudd – defines legitimacy:

JOURNALIST: Prime Minister you just led the Labor Party to the brink of a disastrous defeat. Why should the independents the Greens and the people of Australia imagine you’ve got control of the party that you’ll retain the leadership?

GILLARD: Well, can I say firstly, number one – the majority of Australians through the two-party preferred vote have indicated that they want a Labor Government.

(Julia Gillard, Press Conference, 23/8/2010)

“I do want to say that even as votes continue, voting continues, it is clear that the government has attracted the majority share of the two-party preferred vote. What that means is that the majority of Australians wanted a Labor Government. Now I note that the Leader of the Opposition in the context of the South Australian election said that it was the two party preferred vote, the majority of what people wanted, that was the key indicator to be taken into account in circumstances such as these.”

(Julia Gillard, Press Conference, 23/8/2010)

JOURNALIST: What is the criteria for forming a legitimate government if you win 72 seats, will you try to form government or is it only if you win 73?

GILLARD: Well, as I’ve indicated to you, I will be continuing to offer during this caretaker period, effective and stable government. I’ll be entering into discussions with the independents and the Greens to form a government in the future. The Labor party is the political party that received the biggest share of the two party preferred vote. Ok last one.

So there you have it. If the Coalition wins the 2PP and

The pangs of despis’d love, the law’s delay,
The insolence of office, and the spurns

she must advise the G-G that she lost and that Tony Abbott should be asked to form a government.

In any case, the Coalition’s case is already stronger:

- primaries
- seats
- massive preference of three rural electorates

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 12:20 pm
URL Homer
we don’t trust you

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 12:20 pm
clearly people here like to operate in ignorance so let continue.
pollbludger’s blog should be compulsory reading in these times

The last time I linked to Brent’s blog he predicted that Labor was going to lose the election and lose very big.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 12:21 pm
Sorry. Brent is not Pollbludger. I was thinking of Mumbles. I can’t keep track of Homer’s Sesame Street characters.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 12:24 pm
Tickle Me Elmo, Blinky Bill and Basil Brush have predicted the indpendents will all break in different directions and we’ll be heading back to the local primary school one Saturday in the near future.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 12:28 pm
this is merely another example of catallaxians writing about something that was clearly wrong and not having the faintest clue of why they were wrong.

Quite funny actually.
most people would read about a subject before they utter something but not Catallaxians

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 12:28 pm
Fresh from Gillard’s spin workshop, Craig Emerson dispatched with new legitimacy criterion:

Labor and the Coalition are trying to convince the independents that they will be able to offer stable government.

Labor frontbencher Craig Emerson says his party can give that guarantee because its rules prevent MPs from crossing the floor, while Liberals are free to dissent.

Mmm, yes. There has been no dissent at all in Labor ranks recently.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 12:29 pm
Labor frontbencher Craig Emerson says his party can give that guarantee because its rules prevent MPs from crossing the floor, while Liberals are free to dissent.

We are well aware that ALP hacks are answerable to their union masters and can’t scruch or fold without first getting permission from their fascist overlords, Creg.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 12:32 pm
So… the independents should support the ALP because the ALP rules preclude independence.
Yes, I can see that.

Andrew Reynolds

31 Aug 10 at 12:34 pm
“Labor frontbencher Craig Emerson says his party can give that guarantee because its rules prevent MPs from crossing the floor, while Liberals are free to dissent.”

To my mind that’s an argument for supporting the Liberals.

Jarrah

31 Aug 10 at 12:35 pm
Homer, in 2004 you predicted a thumping victory for Mark Latham and you joined Alan Ramsey in predicting that Howard would be run over by a Mack truck.

Remember? Tim Blair gave you an honourable mention.

Your psephology is about as reliable as your spellcheck.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 12:35 pm
CL

The old melancholic, Richard Burton is even more apposite than the Bard here, to wit:

‘I hear new news every day, and those ordinary rumours of war, plagues, fires, inundations, thefts, murders, massacres … we hear of new Lords and officers created, to-morrow of some great men deposed, and then again of fresh honours conferred …’

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 12:36 pm
How many commenters have suffered the Homer kiss of death?

When Homer is singing your praises, you know your shelf life is up

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 12:42 pm
CL’s Blair link mentioning Homer:

Inaccurate Al will always have his fans — among them optimistic commenter Homer Paxton: “Al is the most perceptive Journalist around and if a mack truck is coming you better take warning” — but the good news is a gigantic truck really is coming. It’s not a Mack, but Al should be happy enough.

Homer, no kidding, but you’ve been at this “wrongology” shit for a decade now. Please go away.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 12:42 pm
Yea I Know Jase. In fact competing newspapers ought to hire Homer as their cooler to destroy the other side.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 12:43 pm
Imagine taking Homer to the races. A bloke could go home in a new Roller or spend the rest of his days in debtors prison.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 12:45 pm
Oakeshott says every vote should be a conscience vote. Emerson says ALP more stable because they never have them. Not too bright, is he?

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 12:46 pm
Yet another reminder to me that some folk can make a damn good living purporting to be business experts – and not be.

The Light Goes On for Gottleibsen – again:

“What surprised me in debate at Hayman was the apparent growing tension between Saudi Arabia plus the Arab world and Iran. Iran is not seen as an Arab nation.”

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-insiders-oil-warning-pd20100831-8TUX3?OpenDocument&src=sph

Thirty years since Iran first hit the headlines with the fall of the Shah; Iran has been a major strategic wildcard since then; and

Gottleibsen has just figured out that they are Persian AND there is just the teeniest bit of tension between Iran and the other competing powers in the Middle East for dominance in the area !!

It’s the teenagers who are supposed to be bereft of historical knowledge – not the purported commentariat.

Myrddin Seren

31 Aug 10 at 12:52 pm
If this keeps going not even Pelosi’s seat is safe.

Demolition party could take the worst hiding in US political history come November and become a rump of a party. The clown in the White House is a goner.

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

I’ve never seen a gap this wide before.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 12:54 pm
“…the apparent growing tension between Saudi Arabia plus the Arab world and Iran.”

Thanks for the heads-up, Bob!

LOL.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 12:55 pm
“With one of the votes locked up as speaker, things could get interesting…”

They have to appoint the speaker as the first action of the parliament. This is often the test of the numbers. If Labor can’t get their candidate up, and the parliament appoints someone else, Gillard has to resign her commission. If they can’t appoint a speaker (deadlock, nobody nominates…), then we go back to the polls.

Tim Quilty

31 Aug 10 at 12:58 pm
Iran is not seen as an Arab nation.

Well FMD. Who knew??

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 12:59 pm
Is Gottliebsen Jewish?

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 12:59 pm
He is a Governor of the Ian Clunies Ross Foundation; Chairman of Penleigh and Essendon Grammar School and Treasurer of the Essendon Presbyterian Church

http://www.saxton.com.au/default.asp?sd8=72

I’m guessing not, IT

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 1:02 pm
To understand the gravity of this poll on the Demolitionists is that it could even be worse for them. The most likely turn of events is that the undecideds will break for GOP. This could be over a 100 seat swing.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:02 pm
ah yes I remember Timbo.
He is the goose who a week out from 2004 predicted an easy win for Latham at eactly the same time I was castigated at Back Pages for saying the ALP couldn’t win. Yeah we should all have Timbo’s foresight.

It could be worse Statman it could be you

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 1:05 pm
Homer:

Don’t tell us your problems with Blair. Tell him. We’re frankly not interested.

Please go away.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:07 pm
CNN host can’t swear on air while defending Obama so he reaches for a twee alternative – describes Obama as the “cotton-picking” president.

VID.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:08 pm
Joe Hildebrand: Labor mounts new argument that Government should go to whichever party has the most redheads

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 1:09 pm
Soft porn novelist and climate Swami, Doc Pach days seem to be numbered.

An independent investigation called for “fundamental reform” at the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, saying the organization’s 2007 report played down uncertainty about some aspects of global warming.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703369704575461452636059886.html?mod=WSJASIA_hps_LEFTTopStoriesWhatsNews

This is another firing that ought to be telecast live.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:10 pm
Fleeced:

I read somewhere that redheads have no soul.

Homer is that true?

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:11 pm
I don’t have problems with Timbo .
He is the goose who claimed the ALP was romping it in with a week to go in 2004 when it was quite apparent that wasn’t the case.
Mind you other innumerates like Andrew Bolt thought so too.

They probably believe like Supreme statistician Forrest that 157/1.1m is greater than 80/70k

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 1:11 pm
Homer, Blair continually tells his readers he has a terrible record at picking election results. You on the other hand, swan around here like some omniscient sage, when in reality you a sherry soaked old fool who couldn’t tell his arse from his elbow.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 1:13 pm
Homer, August 30th, 2004:

I will say in Morganesque abandon that the ALP will win 52.7% of the vote winning seats in Sa, NSW and QLD and losing some in WA.

Homer, August 31st, 2004

after looking at the seats I will go for 89 seats for the ALP

Google link here (to avoid Sinclair’s Spamo-Kwigginometre).

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:14 pm
I don’t have problems with Timbo .

Well he does with you. Harris banned you. Remember? She referred to you as a useless DNA strand or some such.

He is the goose who claimed the ALP was romping it in with a week to go in 2004 when it was quite apparent that wasn’t the case.
Mind you other innumerates like Andrew Bolt thought so too.

Evidence please. Link?

Sorry Homer, but due to our lessons learnt as a result of your gross dishonesty you will have to provide links to whatever you say now.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:16 pm
hahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Pollster Homer.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:17 pm
That’s possible, JC…

That’s another successful meme originating from South Park. Truly one of the greatest shows ever.

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 1:17 pm
Andrew N, Rococo L – Sorry. My attention was on the wrong number. I was not an attentive maths student.
.
Not paying attention much. Politics is bad for art.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 1:18 pm
Did it start on South Park? lol

You gotta love those dudes. The crap they come up with is just awesome.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:20 pm
What the hell?

In more bad news for Labor, the Victorian seat of Corangamite moved back into the too close to call column last night, too.

At 8pm last night, 93.13 per cent of the vote had been counted with Labor’s Darren Cheeseman ahead of Liberal candidate Sarah Henderson by just 921 votes.

Is 921 overtake-able?

LINK.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:21 pm
Emerson says ALP more stable because they never have them. Not too bright, is he?

He’s right. It’s very bad for a government, when deliberating the passing of law, to rely on something that’s in such short supply.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 1:21 pm
Anyone else feel another double dis-illusion in the wind?

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 1:23 pm
Oh great the PM has no soul and Swan has no brains.The country is in the best of hands

tal

31 Aug 10 at 1:23 pm
She doesn’t have one because South Park says so, Tal.

It’s a scientifically proven fact that Shane wand doesn’t have a brain and manages to get through with a brain stem only.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:26 pm
In other LP news Lefty Kim said 2PP doesn’t matter.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:26 pm
Yeah, it started with SP. Cartman started the rumour that “Gingers have no souls,” and his “friends” get him back by dyeing his hair ginger and covering him in freckles while he slept.

He’s diagnosed with late onset Gingervitus. Horrified, his mother tries to have a belated abortion

Meanwhile, Cartman mobilises the gingers into an army. It’s a pretty funny ep.

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 1:28 pm
Obama keeps claiming “there’s no silver bullet” for the US economy. I thought the Marxist fucker had already killed it? What’s he going to do? Salt the ground?

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 1:29 pm
Crapshoot is going Labor – Almost guaranteed.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/mtr_today_august_31_the_oakeshott_confrontation/

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 1:30 pm
Show some respect for the cotton-picking president!

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:31 pm
He’s diagnosed with late onset Gingervitus. Horrified, his mother tries to have a belated abortion

An abortion after the birth? LOL

Quick someone tell Andrew Light, Member for Canberra Public Service. He can do a study and incorporate that in supporting firearms control by categorizing murder as post birth abortion.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:32 pm
“An abortion after the birth? LOL”

Peter Singer is all for post-natal abortions – though I think even he draws the line at 9 year-olds

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 1:36 pm
Cotton picker, with those girly hands!!!!

tal

31 Aug 10 at 1:36 pm
Apparently pansy Oakeshott is being physically chaperoned by Labor spin-king Bruce Hawker – who is also Tony Windsor’s cousin.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:39 pm
If that t-shirt tucking panic merchant is representative of the people Lyne, then we need yet another fence built. Man up and get a set, you giant custard.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 1:44 pm
Just a day, mind you.

Anna Bligh says MPs will spend a day living as ‘ordinary Queenslanders’.

QUEENSLAND politicians will spend a day living the lives of ordinary workers to better connect with them.

Premier Anna Bligh announced the new Walk a Day In My Shoes program that will see all 51 Labor MPs visit different workplaces to give them a taste of real life.

Somebody pinch me. What these Labor clowns are doing to this country must be some kind a comedic nightmare.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 1:44 pm
Not so fast that labor takes it even if as it looks likely crazy Rob Oakeshott goes Lab.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 1:46 pm
Hope to God those pollies are kept away from machinery

tal

31 Aug 10 at 1:47 pm
Antony Green on 2PP and why it won’t be known for weeks and why it doesn’t matter:

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/who-won-the-national-2-party-preferred-vote.html

steve from brisbane

31 Aug 10 at 1:55 pm
QUEENSLAND politicians will spend a day living the lives of ordinary workers to better connect with them

Let’s hope these mental lepers spend a day as a rodeo clown or a lion tamer.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 1:56 pm
CL what do you think morganesque abandon might mean.

What do you think winning 87 seats mean? do you remember what I said right after that at all.

hint it ties in with morganesque abandon

A bit different from comments on backpages don’t you think.

Forrest old timbo was one of many commentators asked for predictions one week out from the election.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 1:59 pm
Steve:

We know it doesn’t matter. We don’t need a fucking link to Green to tell us it doesn’t matter, you dope.

It mattered the Gillfried when she raised it under the false pretext that it supported Labor’s push for government.

When it went against her, that claim for government went up in smoke.

Stop trying to pull a fast one here, dopey. You’re not intellectually endowed enough to fool people here.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:00 pm
Homer.

Seriously, go get tranquilized. No one is interested in the 04 election, you babbling incoherent dolt and take stevie with you. See if you can get two shots for the price of one.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:02 pm
So the 2PP suddenly doesn’t matter.

Fine.

That leaves primaries, seats and the unambiguous preference of Lyne, Kennedy and New England voters.

Tony Abbott wins.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:14 pm
LOL

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/30/2996804.htm

.

31 Aug 10 at 2:16 pm
From the woman who helped burn down 200 houses and who oversaw the construction of the dodgiest and most expensive structures seen since the age of Tutankhamun:

Gillard promises ‘renovation’ of political system.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:19 pm
#

CL what do you think morganesque abandon might mean.

What do you think winning 87 seats mean? do you remember what I said right after that at all.

hint it ties in with morganesque abandon

Homer, you’re not Shakespeare or TS Eliot. no one is interested in writing essays about your historical works and analysing your ‘text’ for deeper meanings

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 2:23 pm
Don’t get too excited now boys.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-regains-slender-lead-on-crucial-twoparty-vote-20100830-147ea.html

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 2:26 pm
If the PM advises the GG, she can form a government, the GG will recall parliament; EVEN IF, the PM does not have a majority. Then, it is up to the parliament to pass a No Confidence motion. Remember, constitutionally, the 2 party system means squat.

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 2:30 pm
Here’s my guess.

I think Wilkie will stay non-aligned and will say he won’t back either party.

Oakeshitt goes labor

Katter and Windsor go lib.

Adam Ant of course goes lab.

that makes the vote

72 +1 = 73 lab

73 +2 = 75 Lib.

Just a hunch.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:32 pm
Hypothetical, Peter: does that mean a Prime Minister who lost by, say, three seats would be free to advise the G-G that he intends to woo notoriously miffed rogues on the other side in order to have a go at forming a government?

If not, why not?

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:34 pm
As at 1.35 pm today, Labor’s lead narrows to 755!

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseUpdatedByDivision-15508-NAT.htm

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 2:38 pm
I don’t care what happens anymore. I just want Oakeshott to cry.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 2:39 pm
He will. That electorate that voted him him needs collective therapy or failing that de-registration for mental reasons.

How in god’s name did they vote in that drop kick?

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:42 pm
She doesn’t have to say anything about Independents. GG will wait for her to lose No Confidence motion. If GG failed to take PM’s advice, PM could sack GG. So we would be entering Kerr territory. I can’t see GG wanting to go there.

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 2:45 pm
oops sorry.

I thought Adam Ant was in the 72 total and he’s not.

Lab is 74.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:45 pm
Oakeshott could conceivably be dumber than Swan, Plibersek and Ellis. What an amazing parliament. The handicap parking bays must be hard to get hold of.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 2:47 pm
Bolt has a transcript up where Steve Price gets sick of the intwaddle and gets stuck into the big Mary.

Tim Blair has a great essay on Fredo Swan.

Excerpt:

Is the Prime Ministership worth listening to one further second of Rob Oakeshott’s free-range folk poetry? Give him another week and Fellowship Rob, the Port Macquarie peacemaker, will be calling for the appointment of a dolphin as interspecies house speaker.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:48 pm
HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Speaking of marine life, one of Blair’s commenters, lotocoti, weighs in on Fredo’s facial expressions:

“…he’s got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll’s eyes.”

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:49 pm
Doesn’t matter in the end. Infidel is right here. The only thing that matters is to see Oakeshott cry. That’s the only thing that’s worth worrying about now.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:50 pm
lol… I’ll support the first pollie to make him cry. Brilliant.

Hypothetical, Peter: does that mean a Prime Minister who lost by, say, three seats would be free to advise the G-G that he intends to woo notoriously miffed rogues on the other side in order to have a go at forming a government?

It’s mostly just convention, CL. In theory, yeah – GG would run on advice, but under what circumstances the GG decides to be more proactive is somewhat open.

I would suspect in the above case (ie, we’re talking members of the other party, not independents as we have now) the GG wouldn’t just take her word for it.

Fleeced

31 Aug 10 at 2:51 pm
“In just the four days after the election, Mr Oakeshott’s mobile phone registered more than 1700 missed calls and voicemail messages.”

Probably 30% of them from JC, CL & IT saying “pansy, poof, pull your T shirt out…etc”

steve from brisbane

31 Aug 10 at 2:51 pm
I would suspect in the above case (ie, we’re talking members of the other party, not independents as we have now) the GG wouldn’t just take her word for it.

Right. But Peter insisted: “Remember, constitutionally, the 2 party system means squat.”

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:53 pm
Yea, Steve Price basically told him to piss off in that interview. They’d had enough of the little pansy and Steve price is one of the nicest guys on radio.

He just closed down the interview with Oakeshott. It was very funny.

I bet he cried straight after that, but that doesn’t count because he has to cry in public on camera.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:54 pm
In just the four days after the election, Mr Oakeshott’s mobile phone registered more than 1700 missed calls and voicemail messages.

Probably constituents reminding him that they hate the Labor Party’s guts and to pull his head in.

Did you consider that possibility, Steve?

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 2:55 pm
Hey Steve,

dude pull your socks in with false accusations like that… Okay!

JC

31 Aug 10 at 2:57 pm
Oakeshott coud be Steve from B’s brother from another mother. The passive aggresive pansyism is strong in both of them.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 2:58 pm
You’re right though, Steve. If I was to phone Cringer of Lyne I’d definitely have words about that t-shirt tucking. That shit aint cool.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:01 pm
The Present PM can attempt to form a government anyway he/she thinks.

however if they do not have the confidence of the house then it is say goodnight Irene.

It wil not come to that.

Wendle has stated he will make his call very soon.
Which ever way he goes will pressure the other independents.

Yeah Steve Price is a nice guy and Forrest is an intellectual!

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

31 Aug 10 at 3:02 pm
Not sure what Oakeshott’s being asked via phone:

“ROB OAKESHOTT: That is an unnatural thing for a local member to have to do. I would’ve joined one of those two parties years ago, if that’s what I wanted to do. So… ”

Are you sure you haven’t been phoning Oakeshott, Steve???

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:06 pm
Who’s Wendle? Any relation to Urkel?

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:07 pm
The Present PM can attempt to form a government anyway he/she thinks.

Apparently in 1975, the young and therefore extra-stupid Paul Keating wanted to call in the army – a desire he also expressed 20 years later for dealing with the truckers’ blockade (according to Duncan Kerr).

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 3:08 pm
The Present PM can attempt to form a government anyway he/she thinks.

Thanks Homes, so if Labor stuck 20 blown dolls in parliament that would be okay too, right? You dolt.

however if they do not have the confidence of the house then it is say goodnight Irene.

Not if the blown dolls had recordings that were remotely activated by mark Arbib.

It wil not come to that.

I hope so too, Homes. I hope it “wil” not come to that either.

Wendle has stated he will make his call very soon.

Who the f..k is “Wendle”? Is that one of the blown up dolls?

Which ever way he goes will pressure the other independents.

I’m sure. Done right the Labor front bench wouldn’t be able to tell the difference.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:08 pm
I’m guessing by Wendel, Homer means Wilkie

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 3:10 pm
Maybe Wendle is Tony “Half” Windsor.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:11 pm
I’m guessing by Wendel, Homer means Wilkie

I’m sorry Jase. We can’t allow that assumption. Homer could very well have named one of the labor blown up dolls for all we know… in order to give it some authority.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:12 pm
err guys there is nothing wrong with tucking your shirt in. I do so sometimes with a polo shirt.
Sloppiness may be de rigeur in this decadent age but it wasn’t always so. have a look at old movies.

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 3:14 pm
It’s better for the environment for Labor to stay: it saves a lot of electricity on the paper shredders and paper pulping.

steve from brisbane

31 Aug 10 at 3:15 pm
Tucking in a polo shirt? My God, Jason, how nerdy can you be?

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 3:16 pm
I’m sure Wendle is a nickname Homer learnt in his days of powerwalking in corridors.

Steve Edney

31 Aug 10 at 3:17 pm
You can tuck anything in with a collar. Otherwise, let freedom ring.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:18 pm
Jason’s right.
There’s a right and wrong time for a gentleman to tuck in his polo shirt.

How many of you bogans would not tuck in a polo with a sports jacket?

http://www.menspoloshirts.net/untucked-or-tucked-polo-shirt/

RL:

That ought to be a firing offense in exalted legal circles.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:18 pm
Men stopped tucking in shirts around the same time their waistlines started expanding.

Coincidence? I think not.

When people had to tuck in, they made extra pains to watch their gut.

But I agree with the no collar, no tuck in rule.

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 3:20 pm
Wearing a polo shirt with a jacket would be a firing offence

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 3:20 pm
Wearing a polo shirt with a jacket would be a firing offence

Not at Augusta National.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:21 pm
Let me remind you all that Shiny lost the Lord and the Dwarf debate on a similar mere technicality of gentleman’s dress.

The oaf had the audacity to sit down (in front of the lord) with his suit jacket buttoned up (all three buttons mind you) thereby displaying ample girth and the opposite of a six pack.

Dress sense is extremely important and can win or lose debates.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:23 pm
Not here in the middle east. Black shoes, black polo shirt, black slacks and a sport coat = formal work attire.

Screw wearing a tie.

Ev630

31 Aug 10 at 3:24 pm
By the power of the internet, the case against t-shirt tucking is made:

Girls should a guy tuck his t shirt in his jeans…?

“…omg if you wanna be a total dork well tuck ya shirt in and if you want to be hot leave it hang out.”

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 3:25 pm
Polo shirts are out inside the house, but tucked in when you leave.

Did I ever comment on the new Russian fashion as noted in the NYT recently? The photo is worth it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/fashion/24iht-fmoscow.html

steve from brisbane

31 Aug 10 at 3:25 pm
Wearing a polo shirt with a jacket would be a firing offence

eg. RL, of course a gentleman wears a suitable linen jacket over a polo in the summer evening. Where have you been?

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:26 pm
CL, that survey doesn’t apply to me: I prefer women to girls.

Ev630

31 Aug 10 at 3:28 pm
Polo shirts are out inside the house, but tucked in when you leave.

Perhaps in Brisbane , Steve. However in the civilized world it’s most certainly not the case.

You don’t tuck in a polo with jeans or shorts you nimrod. It’s a terrible look.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:28 pm
RL probably has to wear a wig and a gown, so we shan’t be asking him for fashion tips.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:28 pm
Not at Augusta National.

On a serious note.. I bet you would have to tuck in a polo and wear a jacket at the club house as they wouldn’t let you in.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:30 pm
It’s the shirt-hanging-out-with-suit look that really irritates me. Usually coupled with that poofy meticulous George Michael stubble. Seen on brainless footballers, actors etc.

Tuck your shirts in and have a shave, you bogan twerps.

And another thing, notice how many footballers (indeed, regular blokes) have tribal tattoos these days? Total losers. Women with tramp stamps – even worse.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 3:32 pm
“You don’t tuck in a polo with jeans or shorts you nimrod. It’s a terrible look.”

Au contraire: black Boss jeans, black polo, black shoes, sports coat, cocktails at 6 with women (not girls). I assure you tucking the shirt in is fine unless you have a beer gut.

Ev630

31 Aug 10 at 3:33 pm
Women with tramp stamps – even worse.

Not really, especially tramp stamps on the small of the back. I would actually that as kinda classy

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:34 pm
What’s a footballer?

Ev630

31 Aug 10 at 3:35 pm
“Oakeshott could conceivably be dumber than Swan, Plibersek and Ellis. What an amazing parliament. The handicap parking bays must be hard to get hold of.”

You are falling for media hype. All that is happening here is that Oakeshott, in the course of discussions, is bandying about a few hypotheticals. And the media is running a hatchet job on him, using the ideas-phase of negotiations. The same hay could just as easily have been made against Churchill, during negotiations with Truman and Stalin. Since Churchill would go on about history and talk hypothetically. And its very easy for stupid journalists to take this sort of tangential talk out of context. You don’t want to be so easily taken in. Oakenshott is not in the same category as the others you mentioned.

This is just the uppity media who are put out that their people didn’t win. Being arrogant and stupid they imagine that the other fellows have no right to so much as discuss ideas openly. They want to turn this easy-going ideas-phase of discussion into a running series of gotcha moments.

The idea is to support the independents against the two bigger parties. Since the two bigger parties are the two bigger highwaymens co-operatives.

This time last election, Rudd and Gillard were already gearing up to spend and give away all our money, and then borrow some more to squander that as well. It matters not that these independents appear to be agrarian socialists. Their overall effect will be to reign the other two robbers guilds in to some degree.

We would have been so much better off had these independents had the balance of power in the last Howard and first Rudd governments. They would have got some pork for sure, but tens of billions of dollars would not have been spent.

karl

31 Aug 10 at 3:35 pm
Ass antlers is the most appropriate term, JC.

Ev630

31 Aug 10 at 3:35 pm
Ev

What’s with all the black?.. It’s so 90′s.

Are you going to a funeral. Add a little color.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:36 pm
Arse antlers are the worst, particulalry when matched with a riding up g-string.

Wearing a short sleeved polo shirt whilst not playing polo is uber-naff.

But what’s worse is the sight of grown men in shorts anywhere else but the playing field or the beach.

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 3:37 pm
Black Armani suits with crisp white shirts (french cuffs) gold cufflinks and a slightly colourful tie are the go in the best circles in the law these days.

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 3:41 pm
But what’s worse is the sight of grown men in shorts anywhere else but the playing field or the beach.

Dude… this isn’t Australia in the 70′s and 80′s any longer when mens shorts were considered errrr gay.

Get with it. You wears shorts during the day and long linen pants in the evening.

A nice colorful linen shirt with shorts and street sneakers works a treat in summer.

Don’t under any circumstances wear shorts with regular sneakers though. Street sneakers and shorts work well together.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:42 pm
Not really, especially tramp stamps on the small of the back. I would actually that as kinda classy.

Lord.

No.

Jolie ruined her beauty with tramp stamps.

It’s self-mutilation and a cry for help.

Tattoos are for Maoris, sailors and prisoners.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 3:42 pm
RL and a nice watch

tal

31 Aug 10 at 3:44 pm
Black Armani suits with crisp white shirts (french cuffs) gold cufflinks and a slightly colourful tie are the go in the best circles in the law these days.

Armani? I thought you were a wealthy toff, not some bling wearing wog from Leichhardt. Get a tailor.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:45 pm
Nothing wrong with tatoos. And from experience. women with tatoos tend to be the kinkiest so you’re missing out on a lot by a rule against them,

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 3:46 pm
Black Armani suits with crisp white shirts (french cuffs) gold cufflinks and a slightly colourful tie are the go in the best circles in the law these days.

And the senior partner wears this?

http://www.gildedlife.com/2010/08/the-kiton-suit-and-kiton-dress-shirts/

The 50K Kiton suit LOL.

(How the hell do you get to a $50,000 suit unless you’re a Russian oligarch).

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:47 pm
Nothing wrong with tatoos. And from experience. women with tatoos tend to be the kinkiest so you’re missing out on a lot by a rule against them,

Sactly…

although I agree with CL that Jolie ruined herself as she has too many.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:49 pm
Yes, the tattoos do indicate a terrible moral vacuum that can be exploited by a bounder looking for a guilt free pleasure.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 3:50 pm
RL

I reckon you need to dress up. As a tax attorney the more ostentatious your dress sense the more clients you get because that sign of success means a lot to clients far more than any other area of legal.

Remember that you’re all sharing the saved loot, so it sorta puts a different perspective of things than if you were say doing drudge sort of IPO boilerplate law.

Spend the bucks on far more expensive suits than Armani and it will get you more clients.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:53 pm
Fancy gear, great apartments, wonderful cars … these things are where its at if you are chasing girls and scamming high-paid jobs.

But if you aren’t doing any of those things, a spacious shack (preferably in North Queensland) too-big rugby shorts, and wearing your shirt about as much as Rambo; this ought to be the real chic.

So long as you are in good shape of course.

karl

31 Aug 10 at 3:57 pm
And from experience. women with tatoos tend to be the kinkiest so you’re missing out on a lot by a rule against them.

I’ve been out with two tatt chicks. One back tatt. One bottom tatt. They were as much neurotic as kinky. (Kinkiness often being the contrived overkill of the needy neurotic). Not saying Jason’s theory is wrong but it seems dodgy.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 3:58 pm
Karl:

QLD is for hols preferably in middle spring mid autumn. You don’t live there.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 3:59 pm
One man – and one man only – exemplifies the finest sartorial standards to be emulated by all gentlemen.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 4:01 pm
I’m with Karl. You haven’t made it until you can ditch the suit and swan about in a pair of shorts. Suits are for the races, weddings, funerals and unfortunately for paying the mortgage.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 4:06 pm
Dunno, CL. This fashion ambassador cut a dashing figure whilst representing Oz overseas.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 4:08 pm
http://www.famemagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/les-patterson.jpg

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 4:08 pm
God, I F, I had forgotten how awful that character was. I wish you hadn’t reminded me.

ken n

31 Aug 10 at 4:10 pm
I wish Sir Les were running the joint,instead we get the Clampets

tal

31 Aug 10 at 4:10 pm
Sir Les! How did I forget the great man?

Sir Les tells a story for Michael Parkinson:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnkUTqNYsp0

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 4:11 pm
Infidel:

That’s all true. Most of us don’t need any sartorial splendor but RL does and we’re trying to dress him up.

FFS, RL is a tax attorney and he’s still getting around in Armani suits. If he keeps that shit up his tax practice is going to end up in the dog house.

RL:

I want you to do a full accounting of your ummm we’ll call it wardrobe for the moment and report back to me/us in the mroning as we need to sort this shit out ASAP.

Brands, styles etc. along with what goes with what.

Our forensic analysis will come posted later in the day.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 4:13 pm
“Tattoos are for Maoris, sailors and prisoners.”

A very fair summation.

I found Bryan Appleyard’s post about how off putting he finds them quite amusing:

If I were still, as they say, ‘out there’, my social life would be massively circumscribed.
‘Oh you have a tattoo. I’ll let myself out. Have a nice life and I hope it doesn’t turn all hideous and blotchy when you get older. But nothing you can do about that is there? Still, chin up. Oh no, there’s one there too. Taxi!’

http://bappleyard.blogspot.com/2007/09/ponder-post-10-tattoos.php

steve from brisbane

31 Aug 10 at 4:14 pm
Just curious, has the blog currently known as Deltoid ever discussed anything other than climate science? Anything on computer science, for instance?

ken n

31 Aug 10 at 4:18 pm
I thought only spivs and Melbourne’s ‘colourful Lebanese Kings Cross identities’ wore Armani.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 4:20 pm
No Ken .

Only climate propangada that he links to from a NZ truffle farmer and at last count 80 threads on monckton.

That’s it.

Jc..

31 Aug 10 at 4:20 pm
Steve and I agree.

We sometimes do, y’know.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 4:21 pm
CL

No that’s Zegna

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 4:29 pm
Just curious, has the blog currently known as Deltoid ever discussed anything other than climate science? Anything on computer science, for instance?

In the long distant past he posted on John Lott every other day, Eg.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/lott.php

He also posted about the Lancet survey non-stop for a while.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/lancetiraq/

His preoccupations have shifted overtime.

Steve Edney

31 Aug 10 at 4:35 pm
Dunno if it’s true, but sounds plausible.

ANOTHER $60 BILLION WASTED?

I am a network architect for one of Australia ‘s largest Telco’s – so I
Speak with some authority on this issue.

Here are the technical reasons this will fail :
1) fibre optic cable has a maximum theoretical Lifespan of 25 years when
Installed in conduit. Over time, the glass actually degrades (long story),
And eventually it cant do it`s bouncing of light thing any more. But when
You install fibre outside on overhead wiring (as will be done for much of
Australia ‘s houses, except newer suburbs with underground wiring), then the
Fibre degrades much quicker due to wind, temperature variation and
Solar/cosmic radiation. The glass in this case will last no more than 15
Years. So after 15 years, you will have to replace it. Whereas the copper
Network will last for many decades to come. Fibre is not the best
Technology for the last mile. That`S why no other country has done this.

2) You can not give every house 100Mbps. If you give several million
Households 100Mbps bandwidth, then you have exceeded the entire bandwidth of
The whole Internet. In reality, there is a thing called contention. Today,
Every ADSL service with 20Mbps has a contention ratio of around 20:1 (or
More for some carriers). That means, you share that 20Mbps with 20 other
People. It`S a long story why, but there will NEVER be the case of people
Getting 100Mbps of actual bandwidth. Not for several decades at current
Carrier equipment rates of evolution. The “Core” can not and will not be
Able to handle that sort of bandwidth. The 100Mbps or 1Gbps is only the
Speed from your house to the exchange. From there to the Internet, you will
Get the same speeds you get now. The “Core” of Australia ‘s network is
Already fibre (many times over). And even so, we still have high contention
Ratios. Providing fibre to the home just means those contention ratios go
Up. You will not get better download speeds.

3) new DSL technologies will emerge. 15 years ago we had 56k dial-up. Then
12 years ago we got 256k ADSL, then 8 years ago 1.5Mbps ADSL2, then 5 years
Ago 20Mbps ADSL2+. There are already new DSL technologies being
Experimented on that will deliver over 50Mbps on the same copper we have
Now. $zero cost to the tax payer

4) 4G wireless is being standardised now. The current 3G wireless was
Developed for voice and not for data, and even so it can deliver up to
21Mbps in Australia . There are problems with it, but remember that it was
Developed for voice. The 4G standard is specifically being developed for
Data, and will deliver 100Mbps bandwidth with much higher reliability (yes,
The same contention issues apply mentioned earlier). $zero cost to the tax
Payer

5) The “NBN” will be one of the largest single networks ever built on earth.
There are only a few companies who could do it – Japan ‘s Nippon NTT, BT,
AT&T;, Deutsche Telekom etc. Even Telstra would struggle to built something
On this scale. Yet we are led to believe that the same people who cant
Build school halls or install insulation without being ripped off are going
To to do it ??? Here at Telstra, we are laughing our heads off !! Because
When it all comes crumbling down, after they have spent $60+ billion and the
Network is no more than 1/2 complete, it will be up to Telstra to pick up
The pieces ! (shhhh don’t tell anyone, it`s our secret)

JC

31 Aug 10 at 4:37 pm
I used to like Lambert’s stuff on Lott, I thought it was mostly pretty reasonable.

But yeah you could call it a mono-themed blog.

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 4:38 pm
Lott, Lancet and Monkcton sums it up.

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 4:39 pm
Yea Steve, he hasn’t posted on the Lancet survey for a while now which strangely coincided with the slapping the people that ran the survey received from Johns Hopkins. Funny that.

At the rate the Lancet was accumulating Iraqi deaths we would have ran out of atoms in the universe to count by now.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 4:40 pm
Jason

Lott was caught out by Shiny over that Mary Roach sock-puppet thingi.

But here’s the rub. I would hazard to bet that Shiny’s criticisms were essentially bullshit. Not all but most. At the time everyone was taking Shines for his word about stuff and we now know that may not be a great idea.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 4:45 pm
“I used to like Lambert’s stuff on Lott, I thought it was mostly pretty reasonable.”

But did he really have anything solid on Lott? One can imagine that Lotts statistics ignores the severity of some crimes, versus certain “crime rates.”

I don’t like the idea of going out for a few long tall quiet ones, and all these people packing. But to me Lott is one of the most convincing empiricists I’ve ever listened too.

karl

31 Aug 10 at 5:03 pm
Who the fuck is Shiny?

Rococo Liberal

31 Aug 10 at 5:10 pm
Shiny is Lambert.

Your sartorial consultant named him that because of his big bulbous bald head. Me.

Karl:

It would be worth going through the shinester’s representations about Lott, as I’m more than certain we would unearth a treasure trove of bullshit. Going on Shiny later performance makes that pretty well given.

Like it would be hard to believe that Shiny was being honest about Lott but suddenly took a left turn and became dishonest about every thing else that little dipshit has touched.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 5:19 pm
Jeez Louise.

Couldn’t the murderous moron tell Herman to get lost?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/30/2997136.htm

JC

31 Aug 10 at 5:30 pm
After his death, the couple made trips to Bunnings and Safeway, where they bought an electric chainsaw, plastic sheeting, overalls, bleach and face masks.

Schembri dismembered Mr Rockefeller’s body and tried to burn the remains in a 44-gallon drum at a friend’s house in Glenroy.

The court heard the man had shown decency by giving police a “warts and all” account of the crime.

Schembri’s lawyer has told the court his client’s police interview is a record of “graphic and gruesome” detail and shows Schembri is willing to acknowledge the crime.

Justice Terry Forrest has described it as “barbaric”.

Lawyers for the pair told the court their clients were not sophisticated people.

Schembri’s lawyer has told the court his client was “man enough” to admit the crime to police and described Denny’s role as that “of an ant”.

Denny’s lawyer has also addressed the court, telling Justice Forrest she is a “not very clever person, who was trying to protect the man she loves” and was “fighting in her own primitive way”.

Mr Rockefeller’s family was in court for the plea hearing.

They weren’t sophisticate people? Primitive perhaps? I’ll say.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 5:33 pm
WHy did a man worth hundreds of millions need to have sex with an extremely ugly pair of outer suburban troglodytes?

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 5:36 pm
Dude:

Who knows. People do silly shit at times.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 5:41 pm
Tattoos are for Maoris, sailors and prisoners.

I have eight of ‘em and I’ve never been any of those things.

It’s self-mutilation and a cry for help.

Oh yes Angelina Jolie, Maori, seamen and jailbirds are always crying for help. Tatoos are like anything else. Some are in good taste, most bad. There’s an are where some vanguard gets inked and then it becomes popular and the bogan factor destroys the appeal.

That’s happening now courtesy of all those 19 year-old dickheads who’re covering every square inch of themselves with standard designer stuff, looking the same in a desperate bid to be different and all before they turn 20.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 5:59 pm
http://ugliesttattoos.com/

Boring people WIN

.

31 Aug 10 at 6:11 pm
The true face of wife swapping and polyamory, I see.

I’ve always had my suspicions that the sort of people omega enough to ‘share’ their partners aren’t exactly Models Inc material.

jtfsoon

31 Aug 10 at 6:38 pm
By god that’s an ugly tat, Dot.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 6:58 pm
Yea jase. And the question remains why Herman was chasing this stuff.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 7:18 pm
Adrien

Actually Jolie is as mad as a cut Katter.

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 7:37 pm
Dr NO: Not a good look for Julia “Moving Forward” Gillard.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 7:38 pm
Oh yes Angelina Jolie, Maori, seamen and jailbirds are always crying for help.

I was talking about tramp stamps, not the “Scotland Forever” on former sailor Sean Connery’s arm.

People once paid money to see the Painted Lady at the carnival, as more than one wag has pointed out. Now a trip to your local 7/11 will suffice.

But an overwhelming desire to belong – and to demonstrate that desire in ink – is certainly a psychological factor in the tattoos of seamen, jailbirds, footballers and celebrities etc.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 7:49 pm
Tattoos are for people who can’t express themselves properly without drawing a picture.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 7:52 pm
Pictures are for people who can’t express themselves properly through music.

*runs*

FDB

31 Aug 10 at 7:55 pm
Actually Jolie is as mad as a cut Katter.

Really? You don’t say. I don’t think it’s the type insanity that results of low self-esteem somehow.

Some of her tatts are okay. But she’s gone into the writing style which can be fine provided what’s written isn’t some naff collection of pseudo-spiritual juvenile aphorisms scribbled in a language with a groovy alphabet and/or fashionable typeface and, um

‘Know your rights’ in a gothic font and some Bhuddist palava in Sanskrit? ‘Courage’ and ‘determination’ in Japanese and Arabic?

I always say if you’re thinking about it wait a year. If you’re still thinking about it choose your first one and then wait a year.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 7:59 pm
And on the subject if this is real it’s gotta win first prize for stupid.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 7:59 pm
Connery’s other tattoo is ‘Mum and Dad’ which is sweet.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 8:06 pm
“Greatest ever” tattoo…

http://ugliesttattoos.com/2010/08/08/funny-tattoos-werewolf/#comments

.

31 Aug 10 at 8:14 pm
Japan’s stock market down a crisp clean 3.6% on its way to outright implosion.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 8:15 pm
This is the funniest worst tattoo I’ve seen.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 8:16 pm
Is the U.S. Treasury the Scene of the Next Bubble to Burst?

Great.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 8:18 pm
Hey Tiger, Les Murray once said he converted to Catholicism for the pictures.

Yes, we’re primitive.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 8:20 pm
This is the funniest worst tattoo I’ve seen.

HAHAHA What a dickhead.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 8:24 pm
Tattoos are for people who can’t express themselves properly without drawing a picture.

Pictures are for people who can’t express themselves properly through music.

And also reality is just a crutch for people who can’t handle drugs.

Adrien

31 Aug 10 at 8:25 pm
Note that the dolphin in that tattoo has a tattoo!

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 8:28 pm
Oh God bong smoking Dolphins

tal

31 Aug 10 at 8:28 pm
Abbott’s first order of business should be to free Hoges. What a bunch of rhyming stunts the ATO are.

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 9:03 pm
PM Abbott’s first order of business is to bring over Trump and have him publicly fire Henry on TV.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 9:06 pm
Woohoo! Heavy drinkers outlive teetotals!

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2014332,00.html

Infidel Tiger

31 Aug 10 at 9:13 pm
Global Warming: The IPCC made it all up.

A high-level inquiry into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found there was “little evidence” for its claims about global warming.

It also said the panel had emphasised the negative impacts of climate change and made “substantive findings” based on little proof.

daddy dave

31 Aug 10 at 9:33 pm
JC

I would like to see Henry, Krugman, and Krugman’s antipodean bum-boy – you know who I mean – compete on The Weakest Link.

“You ARE the weakest link. Goodbye.”

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 9:42 pm
The Tasmanian Parliament has approved laws recognising same-sex marriages and civil unions registered in other states or countries.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/31/2998900.htm?section=justin

Peter Patton

31 Aug 10 at 9:59 pm
Global Warming: The IPCC made it all up.

Ya don’t say.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 10:01 pm
I’m so over the climate

tal

31 Aug 10 at 10:04 pm
The Tasmanian Parliament has approved laws recognising same-sex marriages and civil unions registered in other states or countries

How cool and progressive of them.
They’re still the poorest state. Maybe they can make a living by conducting gay marriages for international tourists.

daddy dave

31 Aug 10 at 10:33 pm
Woo-hoo:

Coalition retakes two-party-preferred vote lead.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 11:00 pm
Tiger, re Paul Hogan, I agree. He lost a lot of sympathy when he walked out on Noeline but I dare say he’ll win it back again now. He has never been charged with anything but he’s having his liberty curtailed by the violence monopolisers of the ATO. They just keep spending money until they ‘win.’ This is a travesty in a democracy. I read yesterday where one lawyer said they might keep him in situ for four years. And they did this when he came home for his mother’s funeral, thus cutting him off from his wife anmd child. Whoever ordered this ought to be named, shamed and fired.

C.L.

31 Aug 10 at 11:29 pm
Look, I’m not going to support the ATO on its grandstanding action to ban Hogan from travel calling him a flight risk.

However they seem to have decent case regarding his taxes and non-payment. He did enter into various shelters and he pretended to live without tax residence thereby violating US and Australian tax laws by the sounds of things.

I hate paying taxes, but every freaking quarter I send out a cheque (electronically) to the ATO swearing and in a rotten mood all day. It sucks.

I want to be paying 10% of that. However you achieve that goal through the political system not by cheating.

If the ATO’s case is right then he’s in serious trouble both here and the US. I pity him if the US goes after him because they simply won’t relent until he bust and behind bars.

I heard him this evening blaming his accountant for sticking him into all sorts of ax shelters and claiming he’s innocent because he’s not financially sophisticated.

When it’s to do with money and especially tax everyone has an IQ of 180 and there’s no way he can peddle that crap and be credible, at least not to me.

JC

31 Aug 10 at 11:58 pm
I can’t really muster too much anger for tax avoiders, to be honest. If more people did it – like tens of thousands – governments might actually have to stop pissing our money up against a wall.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 12:16 am
Iconic Australian actor Paul Hogan was accused of misleading Australian and United States tax authorities by claiming he was not a resident in either country, and therefore not liable to pay tax, according to the documents released by the High Court yesterday which detail the Australian Crime Commission’s case against the actor.
Hogan, who has repeatedly and strenuously denied the ACC’s claims of wrongdoing and has not been charged despite a five year legal battle, has attempted to keep a swag of documents relating to the case secret.
But the High Court ruled that while Hogan would suffer “embarrassment” as a result of the documents being released, he had not provided sufficient evidence to support his claim that the documents were so confidential that the court should not release them.
The documents, which include 108 pages of advice from Hogan’s accounting Ernst & Young and details of the ACC’s claims against him, contain allegations that Hogan benefited from three separate tax schemes, involving the use of companies in various tax havens, including the British Virgin Islands.
One of the central allegations against Hogan is that he used residency schemes to avoid paying tax in Australia. The ACC says that under one scheme, Hogan told US authorities in 2002 he was coming to Australia permanently, but still did not declare a $US5 million payment for the rights to Crocodile Dundee IV, a film that was never made.
Under a second alleged scheme, the ACC claims Hogan created a false “residency window” between June 2005 and June 2006, such that US tax authorities would consider him to be a resident of Australia and Australian tax authorities would consider him to be a resident of the US.
“‘In 2002-03, the tax advantage lay in telling the US authorities he was coming to Australia permanently; but in 2005, the tax advantage lay in telling the Australian authorities that he came here only temporarily in 2002. Both cannot, however, be the case,” the ACC said.
Hogan, his artistic collaborator John “Strop” Cornell and his former financial adviser Anthony Stewart have consistently denied any wrong-doing in the protracted legal fight with the ACC.
The investigation into Hogan’s tax affairs is part of the Operation Wickenby probe into the use of offshore tax havens by wealthy business people, which was launched by the ACC and the Australian Taxation Office in 2004.
So far the operation has resulted in $767 million in tax liabilities raised, $186 million in tax collected and 57 people charged with tax-related offenses, the most high profile of which was music promoter Glen Wheatley.
The ATO currently has an amnesty for taxpayers who have not declared income from offshore interests to come forward and face greatly reduced penalties. The amnesty expires on June 30, but the ATO says 4,000 people have already come forward.

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/20100617-high-court-documents-reveal-tax-fraud-case-against-paul-hogan.html

It appears to me that not only was he playing smartarse by avoiding the residency issue but he seems to have been named in some pretty large tax shelter finagling that the ATO caught on to.

And then he goes on TV playing the joker and what appeared to be real flimsy reasons and excuses why he was involved in these shelters.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:17 am
CL

There’s some truth in that, but there are also laws and the problem we end up with is that the larger fish avoid paying tax and the little fucker earning a salary each week ends up getting keelhauled.

In other words we end up like Italy and Greece.

I’m not supporting high tax rates or anything like that, so don’t get me wrong, I think no one should pay more than 10% tops.

But allowing the big fish to get away is simply wrong.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:20 am
JC, we have to differentiate the alleged offence from this particular response. Banning a person from travelling is a form of detention, in essence, and in this case it is detention without charge – which is a hallmark of totalitarianism.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 12:46 am
JC, just finished work here in the ME:

“What’s with all the black?.. It’s so 90?s.”

I wear a camel sportscoat, usually.

Oh and my Oris BC4 Chronograph. Uh, black, again.

Linen shirts are fine untucked.

Ev630

1 Sep 10 at 12:52 am
I agreed at the very beginning of the my first comment on that point.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:54 am
That’s very funny EV.

Good point on the linen shirts. hahaha

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:55 am
Quick warning – I Britain, don’t carry a rose. It can get you three months inside.
Dangerous things, roses.

Andrew Reynolds

1 Sep 10 at 1:02 am
Newsweek: Obama no longer the president.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 1:50 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/coalition-steams-ahead-as-late-votes-counted/story-fn59nqgy-1225912241384

Coalition is currently winning over 46% of the pre-polls, postals, etc. This should come to about 52% of the 2PP on those votes as I pointed out before, suggesting that they are likely to pip Labor on the final 2PP.

Michael Fisk

1 Sep 10 at 1:54 am
Fearing he isn’t unpopular enough, America’s worst ever president has reported Arizona to the United Nations.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 3:24 am
Killing Fields survivor running as Reagan Republican (WSJ version is gated)

http://www.sammeasforcongress.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=131:wsj&catid=38:press&Itemid=58

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 7:17 am
Discussion of efficiency kicked off by Uwe Reinhardt.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/when-value-judgments-masquerade-as-science/

http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/08/30/efficiency-experts/

“It’s not just politicians who sometimes hide their true goals behind smokescreens. Suppose, for example, that one of Professor Reinhardt’s colleagues were to write a series of columns in the New York Times calling for more fiscal stimulus, including higher unemployment benefits. On some days, he argues that these policies will increase GDP. Other days, he argues that they will reduce unemployment. Other days, he tells you that it’s cruel to deny benefits to suffering jobseekers.”

pedro

1 Sep 10 at 7:56 am
Thought about Oakeshott:
Is it possible that he plans to go Coalition, but has been talking up Labor merely to get leverage and play hardball, – a poorly thought-out strategy that is backfiring?

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 9:15 am
What DD links says about the IAC report.
http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/ReportNewsRelease.html

A high-level inquiry into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found there was “little evidence” for its claims about global warming.

What the IAC says about its report
http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/ReportNewsRelease.html

The process used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce its periodic assessment reports has been successful overall, but IPCC needs to fundamentally reform its management structure and strengthen its procedures to handle ever larger and increasingly complex climate assessments as well as the more intense public scrutiny coming from a world grappling with how best to respond to climate change

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 9:24 am
You don’t think they were just being politic, Steve E?

dover_beach

1 Sep 10 at 9:33 am
They were being politic no doubt, but saying there was “little evidence” for the IPCC’s claims about global warming is not what it says.

The statement “little evidence” was in relation to a small number of findings amongst many. I don’t deny its bad making any claims of this kind, they need to sack all the main people currently running the IPCC, but the original link is a completely misleading as to the reports contents.

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 9:59 am
They were being politic no doubt, but saying there was “little evidence” for the IPCC’s claims about global warming is not what it says.

Steve, you linked to a press release. The press release is not the report itself. Now it is certainly possible, the news article may have misrepresented the report. I’m prepared to accept that possibility as I have not yet read the report.

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 10:03 am
An historical moment: the death of the Australian Labor Party…

Labor, Greens strike alliance deal for stable government.

LABOR and the Greens are announcing a formal agreement under which the environmental party will back Labor.

The announcement is a win for Labor as it allows the party to claim parity with the Coalition on 73 seats each.

The agreement does not include a cabinet post for the Greens.

It is designed to ensure “stable government”, according to a Greens spokesman, and contains a “fair amount of detail about process and policies that will support a stable government”.

It is understood that Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Greens leader Bob Brown, deputy Christine Milne and lower house MP Adam Bandt met this morning to formally sign off on the agreement.

The parties are holding a joint press conference in Canberra.

The Gillard/Arbib gang and the Brown/Milne gang: stable government.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 10:05 am
Steve:

they need to sack all the main people currently running the IPCC

We do agree on that.

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 10:08 am
An historical moment: the death of the Australian Labor Party

two questions.
1. Why will this be the death of the ALP?
2. Liberals and Nationals have a coalition- why can’t Labor and Greens?

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 10:10 am
Yes, its true DD I linked the press release but you would hope that the IAC can correctly characterise their own report even if it is trying to be polite. The part of the report that refers to “little evidence”is here.

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 10:12 am
The Labor Party already is a coalition and has been for decades. They’re called factions and there are several of them already. All of them combined – plus the ACTU – now go cap in hand to a party that hates the working class and hates the values of the great proletarian unwashed. It’s a humiliating day for the Labor Party.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 10:16 am
I see. They’ll lose the working class. Yes, you could be right about that.
Time for some good old wedge politics! The opportunities will be numerous and easy to find. Forestry springs to mind right away.

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 10:23 am
It’s the death of the ALP because they are now moving to the left, where a great swathe of voters don’t want them to be. They won the votes they got from going right (witness the backdown on the mining tax, asylum seekers, etc).

The Greens have announced that part of the agreement with Labor is a committee to discuss putting a price on carbon. And not putting a price on carbon will not be an option. Electricity prices set to soar even more. The Greens will get slaughtered at the next election and the ALP along with them.

Al Tony Abbott has to do is get government now and keep telling us that the alternative is a high taxing green/alp coalition and we will have a Tory government for at least 4 or 5 terms.

Rococo Liberal

1 Sep 10 at 10:24 am
The Greens also want the misunderstood Taliban to be left in peace – so I presume ALP deputy leader Bob Brown won’t be attending any military funerals for ADF civilian killers.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 10:29 am
New Ltd notes:

Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor met climate change experts Ross Garnaut and Sir Nicholas Stern yesterday but Mr Katter did not.

“I think their (Garnaut and Stern) positions are fairly lightweight,” Mr Katter said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/independent-mp-bob-katter-close-to-decision-on-who-to-back/story-fn5taogy-1225912695139#ixzz0yEWROSVk

Pretty much as I expected, Katter has no serious interest in climate change. He fits in with Catallaxy commenters quite well in that regard!

But I think Garnaut is fairly persuasive. Will climate change help swing Windsor and Oakeshott to Labor? It should, by rights, but who knows…

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 10:33 am
Bolt reports: the humiliation of the old Labor Party begins.

The Green Labor Party’s first new policy emerges: higher electricity prices for all.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 10:33 am
Katter’s full remarks suggest he is in fact walking both sides of the street. This is bizarre:

Crossbenchers Robb Oakeshott and Tony Windsor met the pair yesterday but Mr Katter says he skipped the meetings.

“I think their positions are fairly lightweight,” he told AM.

“I’ve heard their viewpoint many times, and I simply disagree with them dramatically.

“Just to indicate how stupid those people are, there is a very unassailable scientific case that there will be a problem arising in the oceans. They don’t mention that.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/01/2999212.htm

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 10:37 am
Wow, that’s really surprising CL. (And shows how bad News Ltd reporting can be.)

I would never have guessed that Katter knew about ocean acidification.

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 10:40 am
I wonder if they will meet with Ian Plimer.

They have been signalling since the election that they will go Labor. This is just one more signal.

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 10:46 am
Why I’m a libertarian:

http://www.strathfield.nsw.gov.au/system/files/f2/f4/o579//FORM%20Tree%20Removal.pdf

http://www.strathfield.nsw.gov.au/page/residents/trees/trees-on-neighbouring-property/

.

1 Sep 10 at 10:51 am
So the failure of the LDP to get a better preference deal got the greens a senate seat.

http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/08/28/open-forum-august-28-2010/comment-page-13/#comment-95607

Mr Green said if smaller conservative parties had done a preference deal in NSW, they would have blocked the run of the Greens candidate Lee Rhiannon. ”If the Christian Democrats and Family First had done a deal with the Liberal Democrats in NSW then they could have prevented the Greens winning a spot,” Mr Green said. ”But they didn’t do the preference swap in the end.”

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 11:00 am
I’ll tell you one damn certainity, the socialist/communist alliance announced today guarantees an ETS or carbon tax under Gillard/Brown government. Scary shit.

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 11:01 am
Actually last time as well Steve, we got a raw deal from the Christian Democrats.

I blame them. They’ll blame us because we want gay marriage.

.

1 Sep 10 at 11:06 am
Yes, but so do the greens. If you listen to A Bandit, its seems to be the main thing he wants.

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 11:12 am
That’s why I think the CDP are unreasonable, or actually hate freedom. They gyp a broadly libertarian party that is neutral in the sense of a “culture war”.

.

1 Sep 10 at 11:14 am
More war crimes in the Middle East’s liberalist, most democratic neighbourhood:

An Israeli army officer who fired the entire magazine of his automatic rifle into a 13-year-old Palestinian girl and then said he would have done the same even if she had been three years old was acquitted on all charges by a military court yesterday.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/nov/16/israel2

THR

1 Sep 10 at 11:15 am
They gyp a broadly libertarian party that is neutral in the sense of a “culture war”.

I don’t think any political party is really ‘neutral’ in these things. No paleo-conservative would be likely to believe that libertarians are pushing a ‘neutral’ agenda.

THR

1 Sep 10 at 11:18 am
It’s Official!

The new PM is Julia Gillard. ASnd the gov’t is a formal Greens/ALP alliance!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/01/2999219.htm

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 11:19 am
The concessions secured by the Greens include:

the formation of a climate change committee
a parliamentary debate on Afghanistan
a referendum on recognising Indigenous Australians
restrictions on political donations
legislation on truth in political advertising
the establishment of a Parliamentary Budget Committee
a leaders’ debates commission
a move towards full three-year parliamentary terms
two-and-a-half hours of allocated debate for private members’ bills
access for Greens to various Treasury documents

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 11:21 am
Oops. 90 minutes too late.

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 11:23 am
legislation on truth in political advertising

Surprising. That will block all Greens advertising.

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 11:24 am
dd

Because the vast majority of ALP voters are not socialist Greenbats. While the luvvies will love, the luvvies are a very minor part of Labor’s base.

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 11:28 am
“a referendum on recognising Indigenous Australians”

I don’t what they really mean there. I thought we did that a long time ago.

.

1 Sep 10 at 11:29 am
dd

The Lib/National Coalition was never about what united them, but what they both opposed, which was Communism, and leftism generally.

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 11:30 am
The new PM is Julia Gillard.

Not yet, Peter. Labor and the Greens have formed an alliance. That’s all. But the independents are getting all their advice from ALP spin masters and sitting in classes about the threat of global warming, so unless it’s all a huge bluff they will go Labor too.

daddy dave

1 Sep 10 at 11:30 am
I’d be very careful if I were Bob Brown about holding such a referendum. He might not like the reactions of the rest of the nation he will inevitably stir up.

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 11:32 am
Things could be even more entertaining if it was this party negotiating in Canberra:

“The Animal Justice Party has been established to give voice to those who have none – to pursue the vital issues of animal protection through the Australian Parliamentary System”

They will have a policy on this:

“A new legal status for animals, acknowledging their right to live protected from human harm.”

http://www.animaljusticeparty.org/

I would love to add J Soon to their mailing list.

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 11:43 am
what the heck?

http://www.smh.com.au/world/doctor-stuck-in-lovers-chimney-dies-20100901-14fv3.html

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 11:55 am
Lomborg starts batting for the other team.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-sceptics-uturn-20100831-14fng.html

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 11:55 am
I hope the animals justice party are pushing to give animals the right to vote.

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 11:56 am
Could make branch stacking very different…:)

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 11:59 am
Birdy is already on to this Steve

http://graemebird.wordpress.com/2009/04/27/to-bjorn-lomborg-and-the-copenhagen-consensus/

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 12:00 pm
Lomborg’s never being a sceptic, he’s just never considered the AGW myth a priority. Typical spineless Euro spiv.

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 12:00 pm
I’m amazed that anyone would want to form a government in these circumstances. The Greens might be stoked they have a member in the Reps but the fact that there are 4 independents there that actually hold the balance of power means they themselves don;t have all that much. And the ALP will lock them in and marginalize them anyway.

It’s a poison chalice. Anyone who doesn’t suffer from severe short term thinking would not want to be in government now. Whoever is, is set up to fail big time.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 12:03 pm
Steve, the story on Lomborg is sourced from the Guardian so it might be best to read the book before accepting the macho warmenist ‘u-turn’ claim.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 12:04 pm
Bullshit Adrien.

Labor is panicking their primary vote is basically in the toilet. There’s no way they would piss off their important ally in this.

They’re fucked.

A labor Green alliance. How cute. This means the end of Labor as we know it. We will never see another Hawke or Keating from the party again.

I wonder what those two think?

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:06 pm
Steve, the story on Lomborg is sourced from the Guardian so it might be best to read the book before accepting the macho warmenist ‘u-turn’ claim.

‘sactly. They basically lying. Anyone that knows Lomborg’s stuff would also know that he doesn’t suggest zero spending on AGW.

It’s trumped up bullshit.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:08 pm
Steve.

Seriously, will you stop plastering this site with Green environment goo. Do it at your site.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:09 pm
- the formation of a climate change committee

increase taxes

a parliamentary debate on Afghanistan

- surrender to the Taliban

a referendum on recognising Indigenous Australians

- lock up more land using blackfellas as the pretext

restrictions on political donations

- cracking down on mining conmpanies, exemptions for the ACTU

legislation on truth in political advertising

- an Australian Fairness Doctrine – warmenist scepticism banned

the establishment of a Parliamentary Budget Committee

- greater access to pork

a leaders’ debates commission

- institutionalising Bob as a national “leader.”

a move towards full three-year parliamentary terms

- no redress for the wreckage we intend to cause (see NSW)

two-and-a-half hours of allocated debate for private members’ bills

- normalising far left nutballs and their ambit claims

access for Greens to various Treasury documents

- to destabilise rationalism as a broad basis for economic formulation

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 12:11 pm
That SMH story on Bjørn Lomborg is such total shite:

The world’s most high-profile climate change sceptic is to declare that global warming is ”undoubtedly one of the chief concerns facing the world today”

The guy has never been an AGW denialist. His book The Skeptical Environmentalist began when he tested claims made by environmental lobbies, pitted them against counter-claims and found the eco-crew were often wrong. Usually because various environmental policies deployed to address problems had actually worked. For example: air in developed cities is cleaner than it was in the 70s.

That book addressed climate change saying it’s the one significant environmental problem we face. (It also pointed out that one solar power station in the Sahara could power the world.)

Bjorn Lomborg, the self-styled ”sceptical environmentalist” once compared to Adolf Hitler by the United Nations climate chief

What shit! Whoever wrote this should be flogged.

After he wrote The Skeptical Environmentalist he was subjected to all sorts of abuse by Hard Green Batshittery. He got spat on at Oxford, that kind of thing. He’s not Hitler he’s the opposite of Hitler – as in rational.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 12:12 pm
Adrien,

The same attitude from the climate Empress (Wong) made me so angry I decided to go against what I knew better and just ignore climate change to spite the warmenistas.

.

1 Sep 10 at 12:14 pm
I agree its not as big a U-turn as is suggested. Just posted it to stir the pot a bit.

Previously though I believe he’s argued that its a relatively low priority and better dealt with by adaption.

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 12:14 pm
We need a “sod off swampy” campaign

tal

1 Sep 10 at 12:18 pm
There’s no way they would piss off their important ally in this.

A. He ain’t that important. If they can get 3 independents onside, he aint important at all. Here’s the news: the ALP Hate the Greens. They think of them as splitters.

B. Bandt’s got a lot more to lose than the ALP. he has nowhere else to go. He has no options. It’s a temporary alliance and the ALP will do their best to screw the Greens to the wall with strategic use of procedure.

C. The ALP in the merry seat of Melbourne will be working over-time now. Bronwyn Pike came close to losing her seat to Di Natale at the last State Election. So they’ve got the message and they will be determined to win the seat back.

Also because the Greens now have something that approaches power they will have to compromise. They’ll have to get their hands dirty. All the idealists who voted them in will be disillusioned proper.

Unless they prove brilliant or circumstances prevail in their failure I expect they’ve reached the high watermark. I reckon, however, that the seat of Melbourne might become a Green stronghold.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 12:18 pm
Photograph:

The new Green Labor Party (GLP).

The connection with the historical Labor Party – with the ghosts of the men of Barcaldine – is over.

ALP: RIP.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 12:23 pm
Photograph -

The new Green Labor Party (GLP).

The connection with the historical Labor Party – with the ghosts of the men of Barcaldine – is over.

ALP: RIP.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 12:24 pm
Here’s another piece of Minitrue bollocks about Lomborg. Quote:

Now he is championing the dangerous prospect of geo-engineering as his latest reason to ignore ballooning carbon emissions. Specifically he believes a fleet of 1,900 robotic ships patrolling the Pacific Ocean churning seawater into the upper atmosphere will negate the need to do anything about climate change.

Amazing! geo-engineering is ‘dangerous’ and it’s Lomborg’s excuse to ignore carbon emmission and do nothing.

So constructing 1900 robot ships is doing nothing? I’m not endorsing the robot ships but it seems to me that it’s ‘doing something’.

The Earth is like a ship. It’s a ship that’s hit some stormy weather and perishes. Not because they needed to but because half the crew are arguin there’s no storm and the other half are butchering each other over exactly how you deal with it.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 12:28 pm
I bet there more than a few players in the old ALP that are really pissed off with this.

Perhaps it’s time for them to start a new party.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:28 pm
CL – There is another possibility. The Green/ALP coalition becomes permanent, manages to win the next election and rules for thirty years.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 12:29 pm
Homer on Troppo

http://clubtroppo.com.au/2010/08/31/my-take-on-the-debacle/#comment-399602

Butterfield, Bloomfiled & Bishop said:

ah Observa,
you claim there was BER waste but have no evidence. Brad Orgill struggled to find any.

you claim the insulation policy was a debacle. however before the policy came in there were on average on the bravest assumptions for the industry 80 fires of the 70,000 houses insulated over a number of years.

on the worst figures provided by the Opposition and assuming ONLY 10% of fires were due to insulation put in prior to the policy there were 157 fires on the 1.1 million houses provided with insulation.

Even on this little metric fires fell tenold!

We aren’t even looking how much energy was saved!

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 12:30 pm
Jase

I think Homer has an interest in this. IT seems to me the moron bought into the insulation thing by having his home re-insulated at taxpayer cost. So the tool is going around justifying it.

If the moron’s home burns down he can’t blame us as we warned him.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:34 pm
It will be interesting to see if Labor demands a “no compete” clause in their agreement, prevented both a Greens and Labor candidate contesting the same seats.

Peter Patton

1 Sep 10 at 12:35 pm
It will be interesting to see if Labor demands a “no compete” clause in their agreement, prevented both a Greens and Labor candidate contesting the same seats.

I imagine that will the the only thing on their agenda. They know the Greens are toast without Lib prefs.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 12:36 pm
So to follow up on Harry Clarke’s voting record.

He voted for the Greens because he hates labor with a passion and wasn’t enamored with the Libs AGW policy. The end result that we’re seeing is a Green labor alliance..

Good work Harry. Another fine fucking mess you’ve got yourself into. Any more brilliant ideas?

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:40 pm
from harry’s blog
Quote from Julia Dullard

“Labor has a long and proud track record of reforming the institutions and practices of political life I want to renovate that Labor tradition to bring lasting and durable improvements to our democracy”.

With the exception of the Hawke-Keating years – a significant period – Labor has no ‘long and proud track record’ at all. It has been a party of bunglers and fools.

This ridiculous quote is from the vixon who skewered old blabbermouth Rudd well and truely in the back because the government has ‘lost its way’. A government that she was a key part of.

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 12:44 pm
Yea Jason.

The party he voted for has gone into alliance with the party he despises.

I think he should change his name to Professor Harry Clouseau.

He tangles himself up in so many ways that it’s not funny anymore… it’s tragic really.

I’m not going to help him untangle himself from this one. He on his own as I’m just sick of getting him out of the soup all the time.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:50 pm
Statman the facts speak for themselves. Idiots like Forrest are now saying the fires are out there somewhere, somehow.

We have Sinkers saying 6% equals 18% ,Marky saying 10% equals 1% and Forrest says 1% is much greater than 11%.

Mad

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

1 Sep 10 at 12:53 pm
Homes tell the doc the anti-anxiety tablets are making you manic and even more delusional.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 12:57 pm
Nominally he should support a libertarian position perhaps with reservations (a good economist), but he’s a cantankerous old wowser who supports smoking bans, taxing poor people off the road and taxing profits off hard working mining entrepreneurs. His cantankerours wowserism is rather sad, as it totally muddies his thoughts.

I want him to justify what he’s voted in.

This is why we cannot trust social conservatives, like the ones at Menzies House. Tey will twist themselves in knots until they turn left and combine it with their disrespect for civil liberties, then going native and becoming national socialists.

“Angry COnservative” at Menzies House was miffed I told him he was out of place for being a DLP supporter!

.

1 Sep 10 at 12:57 pm
“We have Sinkers saying 6% equals 18% ,Marky saying 10% equals 1% and Forrest says 1% is much greater than 11%.”

Stop verballing people Homer. You have the hide to call their contention with your verballiing “Goebelling”.

Shameful.

Have a Clozapine.

.

1 Sep 10 at 12:58 pm
Yea … I call his economics.. Other People Economics. It’s all the shit he doesn’t like he wants banned or taxed to death and then uses economics to somehow justify his sets of beliefs.

You’re right, social conservatives are the pits.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:04 pm
And despite the Greens-ALP deal struck this morning, the fate of Australia’s next prime minister still lies with the independents.

“The Greens will ensure supply and oppose any motions of no-confidence in the government from other parties or MPs,” Senator Brown said at a media conference in Canberra a short time ago.

“Labor will work with the Greens to deliver improved transparency and integrity to parliament.”

Who the fuck is the senior coalition party in all this. IT seems to me that it’s the Gangreens with Brown now the PM.

I wonder how Ludwig feels about this.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:13 pm
LOL

Shades of Gorton.

Brown to run in Denison by-election soon!

.

1 Sep 10 at 1:17 pm
How many sensible Gary Johns types are around in labor these days that would say they’ve had enough and they’re not going to take it any more.

Let a new party bloom.. Please.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:20 pm
In fact here’s what Gary John thinks about this alliance.

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=10822

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:30 pm
Last, but by no means least, the Greens will demand a place at the table of Australia’s premier economic advisory bodies – the Productivity Commission, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Now that is a scary thought. if that happens we might as well make Homer Finance Minister and Bird the Secretary of Treasury

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 1:32 pm
Gillfried is selling the family china to stay in office. There’s isn’t a thing she wouldn’t do to hold on- even destroying that party.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:42 pm
Marky Sinkers said in actual words the net debt in dollar terms was similar.

so $96b in 1995/96 equals $93b in 2012/13. No inflation or economic growth in Sinkers world.

you say that a VAT is a proportional tax.
so a person who earns $10k and a person who earns $100k and who pay $1k in tax pay the same.
So 10% equals 1%.

but the best remains for Forrest. He gets 1% to be much greater than 11%. and what’s more like Scully and Mulder he believes the fires are out there somewhere.

Mad as hatters

Abbott’s increasingly bizarre and erratic behaviour since the election just shows how easily the ALP would have won the election if Rudd had remained Leader.
It serves the ALP right for taking Catallaxian advice.

If they actually want to take office then get tony to have as many press conferences as possible

mind you the next government will have to think twice before they serve up any legislation which is no bad thing.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

1 Sep 10 at 1:42 pm
Hey JC

Social Conservatives believe in changing attitudes through society, not Government. Like you, we real social conservatives are libertarians when it comes to government, i.e we like it small and strong. Where we differ is in our belief that the small state and its insitututions are worth owing our allegiance to in more than a utilitarian sense.

Rococo Liberal

1 Sep 10 at 1:43 pm
How christian of you to now start a campaign to maliciously lie about people and what they said, Homer.

You better hope that the big fella is having a day off when you get dumped at the pearly gates. You better or you won’t be happy with where you end up, you dishonest wretch,

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:47 pm
Make me Minister for Sports, please, and I’ll save the government a hell of a lot of money. Convert the AIS to public housing, and two problems solved.

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 1:50 pm
Forrest you don’t lie. you cannot determine the truth because you are an idiot as I have just shown.

Butterfield, Bloomfeld % Bishop

1 Sep 10 at 1:52 pm
It doesn’t work and never works, RL. Your final dropping off point is prohibition or taxes that essentially attempt the same thing.

You can’t have economic liberty while constraining the social side as the two really go hand in hand.

What’s worse it allows the left to impose their own constraints on people under the pretext that the other side does too.

It makes things worse.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:53 pm
Homer where did I ever say 1% 11% or even infer something like that?

Post it up, or seriously just get lost.

The only thing you now have left is to lie. Keep digging.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 1:55 pm
RL:

Here’s a vid on how a tax attorney is supposed to dress. Ignore the brands, just focus more on the look, particularly Gordon Gekko (only actually) but no suspenders.

The runway stuff is for the IPO schelps and not for anyone in the tax department of a large firm. The cigar is optional, however it’s actually an okay look for a tax attorney.

For lord’s sake stop taking your fashion queues from those idiots that cut and paste IPO crap pretending they’re lawyers.

http://player.video.news.com.au/theaustralian/#1579566476

Focus on Gordon and no one else.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 2:22 pm
WTF;

ITALIANS reacted angrily after Muammar Gaddafi lectured 200 actresses and models on the superiority of Islam, a day after saying that all Europeans should become Muslim.

The Libyan leader recruited the women through a modelling agency to join him and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi at a photographic exhibition in Rome that traced historical links between the two countries.

Telling them that Islam was the ‘’ultimate religion’’, Colonel Gaddafi insisted that ‘’if you want to believe in a single faith, then it must be that of Muhammad’’…

He went to a modeling agency? LOL

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/convert_or_die/

JC

1 Sep 10 at 3:06 pm
Ha Ha! Cut n’ Paste takes a certain Professor to task:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/never-say-never/story-e6frg6zo-1225912089708

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 3:22 pm
This is either an old story or he’s done it again as I remeber this story from last year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1228196/Colonel-Gaddafi-demands-500-beautiful-Italian-girls-convert-Islam-Rome-summit.html

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 3:24 pm
He’s done it again! This time recruiting from a modeling agency!

JC

1 Sep 10 at 3:26 pm
IF: C&P snipped a bit short on that one. He went on to write that before the next election the Libs and the Nats would merge.
And he was assuming that the ALP would win this election.

Ken Nielsen

1 Sep 10 at 3:27 pm
No he recruited models previously as well. He has to pay them otherwise do you reckon they would come?

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 3:29 pm
Actually he might be implementing his version of the Bird policy of “accepting their sheilas”.

Steve Edney

1 Sep 10 at 3:30 pm
Does Keneally have many backbenchers that she and her predecessors have not sacked from the Ministry yet?
How many more can she choose from in filling the latest vacancy for misconduct?

Andrew Reynolds

1 Sep 10 at 3:31 pm
Might add that Sinkers made cut n’ paste again!

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 3:31 pm
There is a time in every man’s education when he arrives at the conviction that envy is ignorance; that imitation is suicide; that he must take himself for better for worse as his portion; that though the wide universe is full of good, no kernel of nourishing corn can come to him but through his toil bestowed on the plot of ground which is given him to till. The power which resides in him is new in nature, and none but he knows what that is which he can do, nor does he know until he has tried.

Ralph Waldo Emerson
Self-Reliance
1830

Nice innit?

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 4:28 pm
Hey Rococ

Social Conservatives believe in changing attitudes through society, not Government. Like you, we real social conservatives are libertarians when it comes to government, i.e we like it small and strong. Where we differ is in our belief that the small state and its insitututions are worth owing our allegiance to in more than a utilitarian sense.

Restate the foundations of an alliance. I’d put the first sentence a little differently.

Social conservatives can be counted on to irrationally and sometimes violently oppose any social change on first principle. After the rubble’s cleared away whatever change that has occurred, good or bad, will be supported as the new orthodoxy by said conservatives who will maintain it was their idea all along.

Adrien

1 Sep 10 at 4:33 pm
‘Restate the foundations of an alliance. I’d put the first sentence a little differently.’

Meaningless drivel Adrien

Rococo Liberal

1 Sep 10 at 4:36 pm
I thought that when I was a kid Wattle day was 1 August.
“1916: The date of Wattle Day in New South Wales changed from 1 September to 1 August. The reason for this change was that it allowed the Red Cross to use the earlier flowering and more familiar Cootamundra Wattle (Acacia baileyana) rather than Golden Wattle (Acacia pycnantha) in their efforts to raise money to support the War effort”
http://www.worldwidewattle.com/infogallery/symbolic/wattleday.php

Sorry, but I do like to check that the old memory still works.

Ken Nielsen

1 Sep 10 at 4:38 pm
So you can go blind.

Sinclair Davidson

1 Sep 10 at 4:38 pm
JC

I see, Libertarians believe that we shouldn’t prohibit murder, rape, arson, treason, illefgal immigration. We shouldn’t have traffic lights or anti-fraud laws.

Bollocks, my son.

Everybody believes in some regulation. What we social conservatives and you libertarians both believe in is that these regulations should be as few as possible. We then would use social pressure to ‘prohibit’ immoral behaviou, you guys would not.

Rococo Liberal

1 Sep 10 at 4:40 pm
Breaking News

Another ALP NSW Minister, Paul Macleay, the Ports Minister, forced to quit. Apparently he used his Gpvernment laptop to download oporn and to visit gambling sites.

Rococo Liberal

1 Sep 10 at 4:41 pm
RL

Stop it with the drama queen stuff. You know what I’m talking about and it ain’t that stuff you raised, but you know this already away.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
2PP count update: at this moment, the AEC site is showing it as 50% each. Can’t get any fairer than that.

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
Steve:

Save your keyboard for when it counts which is at the end, not now.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 4:48 pm
“Meaningless drivel Adrien.”

Yep. That’s what they call him.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 4:49 pm
The government is going to be formed well ahead of the final 2PP, JC. Just thought it was mildly amusing that the figures should land on 50/50 at any point.

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 4:52 pm
Just numbers , Steve. Nothing really to get all excited about.

Jc..

1 Sep 10 at 4:54 pm
Adrien and Homer appear to have become drinking buddies. Their posts are indistinguishable.

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 4:56 pm
The Telegraph notes that an American has invented “deep fried beer”, which is beer inside a pretzel dough. But I think the funniest line is the last, with news I don’t think I had previously heard:

“Last year’s winner of the Texas state fair fried food competition was a recipe for deep-fried butter.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/7973944/Deep-fried-beer-invented-in-Texas.html

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 6:01 pm
Stock market up 2%. I think the public is getting quite used to not having a government and perhaps even like what they see or err, lack thereof.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 6:10 pm
Hey, JC: have u noticed Tim Lambert’s latest post? His wife looks quite unconvinced.

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/08/it_was_twenty_five_years_ago_t.php

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 6:18 pm
Good Lord. That’s the worst wedding photo I’ve ever seen.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 6:31 pm
What are her eyes telling you, Steve?

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 6:36 pm
I’m speechless. Or in the immortal words of Jackie Chiles….. na I won’t say it.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 6:41 pm
Seen his graduation pic?

Dude, get some long trousers and shoes and ditch the shades.

http://www.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/img/timgown.jpg

JC

1 Sep 10 at 6:45 pm
I’m sorry for inviting ridicule for a guy who is doing a good job on climate change blogging, but I can’t help but feel his wife would not be appreciating his choice of that particular photo.

steve from brisbane

1 Sep 10 at 6:53 pm
His wife explains the photo in comments. All in good fun apparently and good for them for still being happily married.

Infidel Tiger

1 Sep 10 at 7:08 pm
Hear hear, Tiger.

C.L.

1 Sep 10 at 7:10 pm
I strongly suspect she also did the voice over in the Lord and the Dwarf debate pretending to be Pinker, the scientist that Shiny used in countering Monckton’s claims which later turned out to be false.

You later found out that Pinker added more that was left out and therefore deceptive. It wasn’t Pinker in the recording.

Shiny referred to the voice as belonging to a colleague. I know north Eastern accents pretty well and it was a Canadian accent.

Wedding pic or no wedding pics, it’s pretty freaking misleading to pulling that stunt.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 7:26 pm
Jo Nova has more on this stunt.

http://joannenova.com.au/2010/02/lamberts-pinker-tape-ambush-pr-stunt/

http://joannenova.com.au/2010/03/lambert-victim-of-his-own-spin/

It’s not really Shiny’s views on AGW that get to me even though I think he’s grossly in the extreme alarmist camp. My views on the human impact side wouldn’t be all together different.

It’s the dishonest bullshit and rotten low rank stunts he pulls all the time.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 7:30 pm
That’s one for Awkward Family photos.com

Rococo Liberal

1 Sep 10 at 7:45 pm
damned, Lambert actually looked OK 25 years ago. I suppose this is what a lifetime of excess carbs and sitting at the computer does to you, a fate I am consciously trying to avoid.

jtfsoon

1 Sep 10 at 8:19 pm
It’s the camera angle I reckon.

All you need to do is an hour exercise a day, stay off the carbs a little and you’re fine.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 8:23 pm
Yep I was thinking the same thing Jase

tal

1 Sep 10 at 8:23 pm
As well as unbuttoning his suit jacket when he sits down, Tal. I was incensed when I saw that bad behavior on the vid. I was totally chagrined and upset.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 8:26 pm
Peasant

tal

1 Sep 10 at 8:27 pm
Down Under: the danse macabre of labourism

http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/9452/

Frank Furedi makes some interesting observations from his recent Australian sojourn.

The only point I find curious is the statement:

“At least the Australian Labor Party has a real leader. Julia Gillard is no Miliband. She comes across as a genuine and articulate politician….”

Wonder which version of Jenuine Joolia Frank was privy to ?

Still, to be fair, he is comparing her to UK politicians, and one can see how he might think Joolya looks more credible than the crop he is used to.

Myrddin Seren

1 Sep 10 at 8:38 pm
Sorry to go all Laura Norder on everyone here, but does anyone else think that 5 and a half years is probably too short a sentence for beating someone to death with absolutely no provocation?

http://www.news.com.au/national/judge-says-killing-of-buddhist-monk-buu-lieu-unprovoked-and-merciless/story-e6frfkvr-1225912974190

Yobbo

1 Sep 10 at 10:35 pm
Violent crime is treated very leniently in Australia.

5 1/2 years is preposterous. May as well let the murderer go free.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 10:37 pm
Tony Windsor was just on Lateline, confirming what we all knew. Abbott is an economic liar and a crank, with a $ 7 – 11 billion ‘black hole’ in his election promises.

THR

1 Sep 10 at 10:44 pm
Yobbo, funny you should ask that right after I watched Harry Brown. Five and a half (three years with parole) is extraordinarily lenient. Our criminal justice system simply has little respect for an innocent person’s life and they show far too much concern for the guilty. Any thing less than twenty years can’t be taken seriously, and in the circumstances here, it shouldn’t be less than 30 years.

dover_beach

1 Sep 10 at 10:45 pm
Only an $7-11 billion ‘black hole’? Nothing that Treasury can’t ‘fill’ with a change of forecast expectations if the last year is anything to go by.

dover_beach

1 Sep 10 at 10:54 pm
Spin it any way you like, DB, it certainly paints the Coalition’s recalcitrance on costing in a rather revealing light.

THR

1 Sep 10 at 10:57 pm
THR

Tony Jones (right now) claimed that Liberal party is saying the Treasury has confirmed its 7 -11 billion in savings is within around 3% accuracy.

What are you saying?

JC

1 Sep 10 at 11:08 pm
Yobbo, Dover that is awful

tal

1 Sep 10 at 11:12 pm
JC, the ‘black hole’ was for costings, not savings. The Coalition are now stating that they got their costings 95-96% per cent right. Turns out the margin of error is somewhere between 7 and 11 billion.

THR

1 Sep 10 at 11:13 pm
So where does the Pm stand on internet censorship?

tal

1 Sep 10 at 11:18 pm
THR

I think you’re confused here. As per your comment….

$7 to $11 billion error arrived at by being say 95% accurate that would mean they had

Round 7 to 11 billion to 9 billion

9 billion / .05 = 180 billion of spending proposals.

That doesn’t sound right, does it?

JC

1 Sep 10 at 11:18 pm
That’s not the way Windsor told it, JC. He said that the lower ($7 billion) figure would be correct on the condition that the Coalition make their promised savings on projects. These savings are unknown at this stage. That’s the best-case scenario.

THR

1 Sep 10 at 11:21 pm
Okay….I don’t think the issue is as big as it’s made out here.

If they control the budget (as the government) they could very well be out in their estimates by $7 billion in terms the entire sum.

Give or take, the budget is around 23% or so of GDP, which also give or take would make the entire budget around $230 billion. Being 7 billion out over a some that size is really neither here or there and it certainly don’t suggests they are lying. In fact they’re pretty damn close if you ask me.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 11:31 pm
Hitler… re-imagined as a modern-day hipster: http://hipsterhitler.com/

Fleeced

1 Sep 10 at 11:32 pm
oops doesn’t suggest.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 11:32 pm
Man I love potash, Two weeks ago I had no idea what potash was and possibly ran across that word only a few times in my life.

I love potash.

I bought into a low lithium producer in Chile early last year on the back of this green stuff that’s being talked about.

The firm is also a potash producer.

SQM is the NYSE symbol.

All you greentards out there that wanna drive green cars with cute little batteries. Don’t fucking bother asking how that shit is processed because if you really knew you wouldn’t be so quick to push for “delightful” green cars. That shit is absolute poison to the environment and you know how much of an environmentalist I am. If it makes me feel a little irked, you fuckers ought to be scared shitless.

JC

1 Sep 10 at 11:39 pm
Joe, check your italics

tal

1 Sep 10 at 11:40 pm
Why what’s wrong, Tal?

JC

1 Sep 10 at 11:41 pm
Preempting(spelling?) Joe sorry if I jumped in too soon

tal

1 Sep 10 at 11:46 pm
THR, you seem to have moved from supporting Kevin Bjelke-Rudd to supporting the Country Party. Next you’ll be buying a tweed coat and checking out the livestock at the Melbourne Show.

The only “black hole” worth talking about is the $50 billion black hole caused by Rudd and Gillard.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 12:45 am
The ‘look over there’ tactics won’t work this time, CL. The Coalition have been found. That is, unless you trust Abbott’s Magic Pudding accounting firm above noted communist stooge, Ken Henry.

The Coalition are either completely innumerate, or they’re lying. We report, you decide.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 12:52 am
Moreover, after yesterday’s unrecoverable demolition job by the leading Telcos – backing Abbott’s $6.2 billion broadband plan – there now exists a $37 billion black hole in the government’s numbers on that.

$37 billion.

Oops.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 1:07 am
Obama the worst fiscal bum in American history:

Federal spending rises a record 16% in 2009, Census Bureau says.

Federal domestic spending increased a record 16 percent to $3.2 trillion in 2009, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday, largely because of a boost in aid to the unemployed and the huge economic stimulus package enacted to rescue the sinking economy.

The rise in spending was the largest since the Census Bureau began compiling the data in 1983. The Washington region was among the biggest beneficiaries of the government’s spending.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 1:19 am
Poll Bombshell: Most Ohio voters want Bush in the White House rather than Obama.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 1:23 am
THR says: abolishing private property is responsible economic management; Abbott is an irresponsible budget wrecker (just like Malcolm Fraser said that Robert Mugabe was “ready for office” even though Abbott was “not yet ready”).

Michael Fisk

2 Sep 10 at 3:23 am
This Oakeshott guy is cooking up any old excuse to back Labor. The latest: one National Party lay member said something distasteful about coloured folk more than 15 years ago.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rob-oakeshott-put-off-by-racism-in-nationals/story-fn59niix-1225913033617

I wonder what Mr Oakeshott’s take on “Fucking Vietnamese Balts” might be? Surely they should have a voice too.

Michael Fisk

2 Sep 10 at 3:37 am
FFS a disagreement over costings/savings makes you a crank, but you can hide the assumptions behind Fuel Watch, ignore and distort the Henry review and put capital expenditure off balance sheet?

.

2 Sep 10 at 7:54 am
Keynesian economics, Russian-style

Russians urged to smoke, drink more

MOSCOW (AFP) – Smoke and drink more, Russia’s finance minister Alexei Kudrin urged citizens on Wednesday, explaining that higher consumption would help lift tax revenues for spending on social services.

“If you smoke a pack of cigarettes, that means you are giving more to help solve social problems such as boosting demographics, developing other social services and upholding birth rates,” Kudrin said, quoted by the Interfax news agency.

“People should understand: Those who drink, those who smoke are doing more to help the state,” he said, offering unconventional advice as the Russian government announced plans to raise excise duty on alcohol and cigarettes.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/100901/health/lifestyle_russia_health_economy_offbeat

Capitalist Piggy

2 Sep 10 at 8:42 am
Hey CL, I see that the quite conservative Catholic (by your reckoning) Premier of NSW has come out in support of the gay adoption bill, when it’s a conscience vote too.

Oh yes, she’s not a liberal Catholic at all.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 8:50 am
Well this is amusing.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/fred-nile-caught-in-web-porn-scandal-20100902-14nuc.html

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 8:54 am
See why we at the LDP get pissed about the CDP?

.

2 Sep 10 at 8:58 am
Maybe Fred will move to the sex party.

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 9:13 am
Well this is amusing

Yes, but what’s with the crusade against porn? Seems like they’re really on a mission to stamp out evil.
I note that they never check for property violations such as downloading copyrighted songs or movies.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 9:17 am
You don’t have to be a total wowser to think its an inappropriate workplace activity.

You could argue it was research but 200,000 hits seems a bit over the top.

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 9:25 am
This stuff would get those of us in the private sector fired. why are you defending such privileges for highly paid politicians, dd? as steve says, it’s inappropriate workplace activity. it may have sexual harrassment implications, it may involve employers in legal trouble, heck it probably even has workplace hygiene implications.

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 9:28 am
You don’t have to be a total wowser to think its an inappropriate workplace activity.

This is true. It’s just curious to me that of all the ‘inappropriate workplace activities’ online, they are selective. Any of these guys playing computer games or downloading songs?

This stuff would get those of us in the private sector fired. why are you defending such privileges for highly paid politicians, dd?

I’m in the private sector too, Jason. I guess I regret appearing to defend them.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 9:40 am
dd if you can’t see the difference between downloading a song to listen to on headphones and whacking off in front of a computer in a workplace you’re definitely ‘curious’.

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 9:45 am
Gambling sites are also scanned for apparently. I would think that they would scan for typical software to illegally download stuff also.

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 9:47 am
yeah I was just going to say the Mcleay fellow went down for visiting gambling sites too.

I’ve met both him and his wife. Nice people. But the rules are the rules.

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 9:48 am
“yeah I was just going to say the Mcleay fellow went down for visiting gambling sites too.”

LOL the State budget would be screwed without gaming machine taxes.

.

2 Sep 10 at 9:50 am
Re tattoos: Japan is just the country for people like CL and me:

“The Kobe municipal government is considering banning people with tattoos from a beach in Suma Ward following the recent arrests of college students for alleged marijuana possession during a music event at the beach, city officials said.”

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/kobe-eyes-tattoo-ban-at-suma-beach-after-marijuana-case

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 9:53 am
dd if you can’t see the difference between downloading a song to listen to on headphones and whacking off in front of a computer in a workplace you’re definitely ‘curious’

I’ve never, ever accessed porn at a work computer. Just so we’re clear on that. It shows a remarkable lack of judgement.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 9:54 am
It shows a remarkable lack of judgement.

Exactly. Perhaps that is another one of the traits which the ‘no porn’ rule is a filter for,

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 9:55 am
This’ll be interesting:

“INDEPENDENT MP Bob Katter will hand Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott a list of electorate-specific demands later today.”

(He’s having a press conference too.)

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 10:00 am
Obama’s latest bold new initiative

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/us/01oval.html?_r=1&hpw

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 10:13 am
It’s incredibly common for novice computer users to access porn/gambling sites by complete accident, because those sites frequently use browser hijackers. You can get to a porn site or a gambling site by clicking on innocuous banner ads.

Yobbo

2 Sep 10 at 10:19 am
200,000 times?

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 10:23 am
And btw googling “Australian Sex Party” is going to result in a lot of false positives.

In fact I’m going to go google that right now.

Conclusion: Yep.

Yobbo

2 Sep 10 at 10:23 am
And btw googling “Australian Sex Party” is going to result in a lot of false positives.

So… the defense that it was “research” might just be legit?

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 10:25 am
Steve: If you get a browser hijacker installed, it will continuously refresh pages and popups until you uninstall it. To be perfectly honest, I actually fail to see how 200,000 hits are going to occur without some sort of malware involvement. Unless they had a team of staff at their PCs 24/7 looking at porn.

Yobbo

2 Sep 10 at 10:25 am
Yobbo,
Your profile with Google must be very different to mine. When I google that I end up with 13 good matches before I get anything else. Yes, I do have SafeSearch off.

Andrew Reynolds

2 Sep 10 at 10:28 am
Actually I agree. Its not inconcievable that Fred Nile could even have been deliberately targetted for it.

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 10:28 am
Andrew, did you try image search?

Yobbo

2 Sep 10 at 10:30 am
Nothing to do with Catholicism, Steve. Keneally is simply a weak human being. Commentators have already noted that she is attempting to assuage the Green left with the gay adoption child abuse measure – to boost her electoral chances.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 11:23 am
Coalition now beating ALP harder than a rented mule in 2PP:

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 11:28 am
The Oval Office is mostly for photo-ops anyway. Obama’s re-design is pretty drab. Those lamps and that coffee ‘table’ look like they were picked up at Bunnings.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 11:28 am
He did well to hide the bust of Lenin.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 11:29 am
On the question of 2PP, this is an hilarious beclowning:

Useful academics come to Labor’s aid.

Via Bolt.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 11:29 am
Gavin Atkins should be in charge of Media Watch. Preferably in the guise of his alter ego Margo’s Maid.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 11:33 am
The cult gets more deadly

Environmental Militant Killed by Police at Discovery Channel Hdqtrs…

‘Awakened’ by Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Truth’…

Demanded halt to birth of ‘parasitic human infants’…

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:37 am
Looking to shift some winter poundage? Try the Iron Lady Diet. The only diet approved by Maggie Thatcher:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247164/The-Maggie-diet–whisky-spinach-28-eggs-week.html?ITO=1490

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 11:40 am
Looks like Maggie invented the high protein, low carb diet. She could have been a dieting billionaire!

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 11:42 am
On the question of 2PP, this is an hilarious beclowning:

Useful academics come to Labor’s aid.

It’s just disgusting.

dover_beach

2 Sep 10 at 11:42 am
Speaking as I was earlier of Japan, I see it joins the list of countries with seriously record breaking heat this year:

“Japan has endured its hottest summer since records began in 1898, the meteorological agency said Wednesday, during a heatwave that saw thousands of people taken to hospital suffering heatstroke.

The average temperature nationwide between June and August was 1.64 degrees Celsius above average for the period, forecasters said.

The previous record margin was 1.36 degrees C set in 1994.”

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jejeLCKDLGD9Ael1Wdi-AIQQf4sw

And before the chorus of “it’s weather, not climate” chimes in: climate change means that as it happens, each decade there should be more record highs than record lows. That’s what’s happening in the US:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091112121611.htm

and Australia:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/28/2803928.htm

and I suspect in the rest of the world too.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 11:50 am
uncanny, that Maggie diet. I wonder how she discovered it? eggs are great. I’ve had nothing but 3 soft boiled eggs and black coffee for breakfast for the last 3 days.

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 11:53 am
Stop the freaking whining steve. If you’re that concerned agitate for nuclear energy or failing that move to Tassie where it’s cooler.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 12:05 pm
I’m just doing my bit to help ensure the deep and meaningful public consensus on climate change policy that PM Julia wants, JC.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 12:10 pm
Heard Island would suit Steve perfectly. Nice and cool near the Antartic, and with 2700m mountain in case of rising sea levels.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heard_Island_and_McDonald_Islands

Steve Edney

2 Sep 10 at 12:16 pm
“Nothing to do with Catholicism, Steve.”

CL, our little discussion about her a few weeks ago was brought about by my saying she was a “very liberal” Catholic (I later modified that to “liberal”); you disagreed by citing (amongst other things) her opposition to gay adoption, if I recall correctly.

So our discussion was all to do with her Catholicism; you can’t pretend otherwise.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 12:19 pm
I see Cut ‘n Paste reporting that an unnamed Liberal has been approached by ‘prime minister’ Gillard to be House Speaker.

Warmenist Petro Georgiou chum, Russell Broadbent?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Broadbent

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 12:21 pm
Steve, Keneally’s move was yesterday widely derided as a sop to the Green left.

No real theological agenda at play.

Just her desperate pragmatism.

Another recent example was warmenist Julia Gillard dumping the ETS.

Or are you saying that Gillard is in fact a denialist?

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 12:24 pm
CL, she supports women priests, had her odd experience with JP2 after she changed the wording of a scripture reading to be gender inclusive, and votes for gay adoption on a conscience vote citing much scripture to explain how it gels with her faith.

Has “liberal Catholic” written all over it. Spin away all you like; I won that one.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 12:30 pm
She was in fact hammered for citing Scripture that held that homosexuals were sinners, Steve.

Women priests are used by outsiders as an index of liberality but this is actually false. There will never be women priests in the Catholic Church – this has been decided infallibly.

So to the extent that she’s out there banging on about it – which she isn’t, by the way – it’s not terribly significant. It’s like Bob Brown fantasising about abolishing coal-fired power stations.

Abortion is a better yardstick and her views on that are contrary to leftist orthodoxy.

But if you’re insisting that her (supposedly) pragmatic sop to the Green left is deeply meaningful, it follows that you must also believe that Gillard is a climate denialist.

You lose.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 12:37 pm
Meaningless drivel Adrien

Indeed. Is it page 3 of The Conservative’s Secret Strategy Manual that states that any articulation of an odious truth about the Establishment is to be disregarded utterly by short rebuttal. For example, ‘nonsense’.

Conservatives resists change instinctively. Sorry. It’s good that it’s there. It’s good that’s not all there is. Just sayin’.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 12:46 pm
CL – Chuckle

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 12:47 pm
Conservatives resists change instinctively.

Is that why you backed the re-election of Kevin Rudd?

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 12:48 pm
So it’s ok to mix religion and politics now?

tal

2 Sep 10 at 12:52 pm
Jim Hoft:

Grim Milestone: US Suffers More Fatalities in Afghanistan Under Obama Than Bush.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 12:57 pm
Interesting Forbes article on why the 21 century belongs to the US despite some hiccups.

I agree (of course)

http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/31/business-immigration-entrepreneurs-opinions-columnists-joel-kotkin.html?boxes=opinionschannellatest

JC

2 Sep 10 at 12:57 pm
“She was in fact hammered for citing Scripture that held that homosexuals were sinners, Steve.”

To which she responded – “I didn’t mean it that way at all.” And anyone looking at it honestly would say that she didn’t. (Labor Premier calls out all gays as sinners – yeah sure.)

Your women priest argument is just weird: she can’t be treated as a liberal for expressing desire for a liberal change to the Church because the Church has said it’s an impossible change.

You’re scrapping the bottom of debating tactic barrel, CL.

Or maybe that was with the great non sequitur of “because I think Gillard is not being honest in her dealings with the Greens, if you don’t agree with my view of Keneally, you must agree with me on Gillard too.”

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 1:01 pm
To which she responded – “I didn’t mean it that way at all.”

So you believe her?

That’s funny because you invariably call Tony Abbott a “liar” when he claims to have been misunderstood.

The Gillard analogy is perfect. She dumped the ETS. Using your Keneally template, it follows that you must believe she’s a climate denialist.

Now, I’d say Gillard is actually a warmenist who was just acting pragmatically as a sop to the climate-indifferent suburbs. Likewise, I don’t think Keneally cares less about gay adoption but recent events have panicked her into throwing a bone to the Green left demographic.

I think she’s quite religiously conservative – she was a World Youth Day wanderer (a real sign) – but she’s obviously very weak.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 1:10 pm
‘That’s funny because you invariably call Tony Abbott a “liar” when he claims to have been misunderstood.’

I can think of two instances where I would say that I, and most sensible people, would say he has made an outright lie in the course of explaining previous statements.

Most of my criticism of him is for changing policy views on a whim. “Real Julia” criticisms should have been met more forcefully in the Labor campaign by clearly showing the number of times Abbott has reversed himself on policy.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 1:39 pm
By the way, I thought Tony was starting to show signs of paranoia yesterday when he starting talking of how the Labor/Green alliance had all been pre-planned before the election.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 1:41 pm
guys this is boring.

who cares why KK supported gay adoption?

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 1:43 pm
Most of my criticism of him is for changing policy views on a whim.

On a whim? Care to name them?

“Real Julia” criticisms should have been met more forcefully in the Labor campaign by clearly showing the number of times Abbott has reversed himself on policy.

How could the ALP believably manage that considering their policy reversal regarding the greatest moral challenge of our time.

dover_beach

2 Sep 10 at 1:46 pm
Yeah, just admit it’s a fair call to say she’s a “liberal Catholic” CL, and I’ll leave it alone.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 1:48 pm
Adrien

No, I wasn’t disregarding anything; you’re sentences had no meaning for me to disregard.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 1:51 pm
Steve,
I would personally have little doubt that it had been at least discussed in broad terms before the election. Bandt certainly had said at several points that he would be supporting an ALP government. IMHO Brown would have been stupid to allow him to say that in the absence of such discussions or a deal.
.
dover_beach,
IMHO the parental leave scheme seems to have been put together on a whim – particularly the method of financing it.
.
Let’s just deal with it – politicians sometimes tell porkies. It is the size, importance of and reason(s) for the porkies that matter.

Andrew Reynolds

2 Sep 10 at 1:54 pm
“Real Julia” criticisms should have been met more forcefully in the Labor campaign by clearly showing the number of times Abbott has reversed himself on policy.”

How does proving TA has reversed himself on policy also go to prove that JG is not a fake?

Logic isn’t really your thing, is it Steve?

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 1:55 pm
“Logic isn’t really your thing, is it Steve?”

I must have caught that from CL, RL.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 2:01 pm
Social conservatives can be counted on to irrationally and sometimes violently oppose any social change on first principle.

Wrong on at least two levels. Firstly, conservatives, as a rule, don’t propose or oppose anything on ‘first principles’; that mode of argument is characteristic of liberals. Secondly, conservatives don’t oppose ‘change’ since the morals and mores of any society are always changing. What they oppose is the use of the law as an instrument to impose select changes that have yet to broadly integrated in to what we might call the educated moral sensibility of a society.

dover_beach

2 Sep 10 at 2:06 pm
dover_beach,
IMHO the parental leave scheme seems to have been put together on a whim – particularly the method of financing it.

Yes, that is the most likely example but there is evidence thats suggests otherwise. He flagged something like it in Battlelines, and his conduct over the last year suggests anything but a whimsical political operator.

dover_beach

2 Sep 10 at 2:10 pm
JC, thanks for the link:

Interesting Forbes article on why the 21 century belongs to the US despite some hiccups.
I agree of course

Me too. I enjoy playing the skeptic to the trendy “decline of America, Rise of China” theories that float around. It’s quite easy to punch holes in that meme, which tells you something.

(of course I acknowledge the reality, China is on the rise and is now a major power)

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 2:12 pm
odds are shortening of gillard taking government at sportsbet. If anyone who bet on the coalation wants to hedge bets the other way, now’s the time.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 2:30 pm
lol… it is pretty creative, in a creepy sort of way.

Being mormon, I can’t look at porn or nudity. So I have to get creative.

That’s why I invented “bubbling”. Hard to explain so just scroll down

http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=127185813

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 2:36 pm
…most sensible people, would say he has made an outright lie in the course of explaining previous statements.

Steve, by “most sensible people” you mean most left-wing observers who don’t like Tony Abbott.

Gillard, however, certainly lied on the importance of the ETS. She lied about one boat arrival constituting a “failure,” she lied about saying seniors didn’t matter because they were Coalition supporters etc etc.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 2:38 pm
Dave, the betting markets have been wrong on everything for a year. I really don’t understand why people keep quoting them.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 2:41 pm
we all have to make compromises.
A Bandit once thought the Greens were too ‘bourgeois’

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-too-bourgeois-for-adam-bandt-when-he-was-a-uni-student/story-fn59niix-1225911093349

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 2:45 pm
No, I wasn’t disregarding anything; you’re sentences had no meaning for me to disregard.

The rhetoric is reminiscent of a gadget enthusiast I’m familiar with. Likes that gizmo Major Kong has in his plane. What was the name again?

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 2:51 pm
Well, that’s it. Mary Oakeshott will be supporting the Labor government:

Behead those who insult The Ken!

Ken Henry was appointed by Peter Costello, he build the surplus as much as anyone else and saw us through a rocky 18 months pretty well, I’d be pretty disappointed if anyone was going to go down the path of reflecting poorly on him, David Tune, Treasury or Finance.”

Meanwhile, Tony Windsor and Labor spin king are said to be “inseparable: and Windsor refused a briefing from the Coalition team last night.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 2:53 pm
adrien
seriously, have you been sharing drugs with homer? you used to make sense

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 2:53 pm
“…Labor spin king Bruce Hawker…”

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 2:53 pm
Y’know it will be better for the country if Abbott ends up in the hot seat but I suspect, especially given Abbott’s policy inclinations, it will be bad for the Coalition down the road. In Opposition, a Greens/ALP alliance will be strengthened by shared hatreds.

On the other hand the myriad fraying of the Right, which is being ignored, will be intensified. Who gets the vessel with the pestle?

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 2:54 pm
seriously, have you been sharing drugs with homer?

I never share my drugs.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 2:55 pm
It’s all upside for you anyway, CL. The most successful opposition leader in the universe gets to prove it again. (I could be wrong.)

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 2:58 pm
Ken Henry was appointed by Peter Costello, he build the surplus as much as anyone else and saw us through a rocky 18 months pretty well, I’d be pretty disappointed if anyone was going to go down the path of reflecting poorly on him, David Tune, Treasury or Finance.”

Listen up, you retarded mental leper. Ken Henry had as much to do with the surplus as you do with style, good looks and quantum physics.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 3:00 pm
I never share my drugs

You should. They’re not doing you any favours.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 3:01 pm
“…especially given Abbott’s policy inclinations…”

Which destroyed Kevin Rudd, the ETS, the mining tax, ‘prime minister’ Gillard’s legitimacy and the holistic Australian Labor Party itself.

Abbott’s policy inclinations have been uncanny.

Nothing’s upside down for me, Steve. For you it is. You support the woman who dumped your beloved ETS (something you have never explained). For the first time in 80 years, a government has had its majority destroyed. It’s an epic humiliation for the ~~ALP~~ GLP.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 3:06 pm
“…first term government…”

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 3:07 pm
If anyone of these pricks jumps ship and helps the rouge commie usurper achieve power they should be terminated with extreme prejudice.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-courts-liberal-mp-to-be-speaker-20100902-14ppo.html

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 3:08 pm
Wilkie appearing on Sky News at 3:30pm… rumour that he’ll be announcing his decision (though that may just be to remain independent)

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 3:09 pm
The violence increasingly being wrought by left-wing stormtroopers in the United States really is chilling.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 3:10 pm
I wish there was a recall provision because the crying mary, Oakeshoot was on the radio saying that the Treasury’s analysis of the important, Ken Henry’s ma lives in his electorate and that Ken’s an eminent economist.

There!

Why the f.ck is Ken Henry’s mother in all this these days beats me.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 3:11 pm
The Lunatic who went carbon neutral at Discovery Channel HQ had a list of demands (hey where have we heard this recently?) that are hilarious:

http://tmz.vo.llnwd.net/o28/newsdesk/tmz_documents/0901_demands.pdf

This guy could have been a Tasmanian independent, an inner Melbourne green or a dopey North Coast pansy if he had a nice suit.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 3:15 pm
I always like that song on Blair’s link that CL put up. The lyics are crap but it’s a good song.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 3:18 pm
Which destroyed Kevin Rudd, the ETS, the mining tax, ‘prime minister’ Gillard’s legitimacy and the holistic Australian Labor Party itself.

Can you hear that? No it’s not a leaky tap spilling drops into an almost full water-bucket, one every 5 seconds, it’s Currency Lad beating his ‘chest’.

I’m not going to bother debating Steve Bradbury’s wunderbar Machiavellian gymnastics, just riddle me this XXXX Dude:

You have a first term government that shatters because the leader is King Arsehole and the whole country gets jack of him. Within 6 weeks of booting the boy the ‘new’ government goes to the polls. They start out the gate fine and then hit every idiot bump on the course.

The dude whose regarded as the successor to Honest John Coward the greatest Prime Minister since Menzies (snark) not only fails to win a majority but must, if he’s able to form a government at all, deal with some 40 odd sentors who have good cause to oppose him strongly for various reasons.

And yet you think this is somehow victorious and decline absolutely to consider the warning signs. Amazing.

C’arn China, conquer us. We have it coming.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 3:23 pm
@David_Speers: “Wilkie definitely is announcing his decision…watch live on Sky in 5 mins”

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 3:27 pm
Mary Oaheshitt is giving his decision next week, obviously because the flailing little Mary doesn’t want to be first. What a beta.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 3:30 pm
Wilkie 4 ALP… no surprises

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 3:41 pm
Frankly I’m shocked..Shocked he’s gone ALP.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 3:46 pm
Mary Oaheshitt is giving his decision next week,

Oakeshitt

Next week? WTF! Why? We voted almost two weeks ago now make up yer fuckin’ mind!

I do feel for ‘em, a bit. You run as an independent to stay aloft from the bastards and their taint. Then this. Not only can you get your hands dirty, you have to for the good of the country.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 3:46 pm
Now Adrien starts the ALP spin. After telling us how fucking good they are for three years, the ALP supporter is now programmed to tell us that actually they were shite and that Tony should have won a thumping majority on 21 August.

This is spin of the most transparent kind. It was clear from the demise of Turnbull that the Opposition had purpose and unity, but put against that the media’s never ending love for leftish policy and their boosting of Rudd and Labor since 2007 and you have to say that it was alwys going to be hard for the Coalition to win by any large margin.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 3:46 pm
We voted almost two weeks ago now make up yer fuckin’ mind!

Exactly and all these briefings are a wank. Like they’ve never heard of climate change before?

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 3:48 pm
this is a coup d’etat

I sincerely hope LDP preferences played no part in losing any Libs a HOR seat. I am never voting for them again in any case for their giving the DLP (diametrically opposed to everything the LDP stands for) a Senate seat possibly at the expense of a Liberal. Never again. The LDP are playing frigging wreckers

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 3:49 pm
I’ve been concerned about LDP prefs before, but you have to ease up on LDP a bit. Prefs from other minor parties are a necessity – and it may even be necessary to sacrifice one state to get another.

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 3:53 pm
Oakeshott had hinted before that he’d take it into consideration if one got to 74 – which was a ridiculous comment – but like I said previously, he seems to want to support ALP and wants to justify it – however pathetically.

If Katter has any decency left, he’ll come out now and say he supports Coalition – just to stop Oakeshitt using the 74 number thing as an excuse.

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 3:56 pm
You could have knocked me over with a feather when I found at that this unrepresentative swine had chosen to stick his snout in Jool’s honeypot.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 3:56 pm
If Windsor and Okey go with ALP, I do hope Abbott is merciless in publicising their more absurd demands.

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 3:58 pm
Now Adrien starts the ALP spin.

Not unless they pay me. And even then, no.

After telling us how fucking good they are for three years

I’ll give you a million dollars if you can find one single comment from me over the last four years that lauds the ALP. What? I don’t have a million dollars? I don’t need it.

the ALP supporter is now programmed to tell us that actually they were shite and that Tony should have won a thumping majority on 21 August.

Given the schemozzle this government turned into, given the spectacularly bad campaign they ran: yes, they should’ve been crucified! They weren’t. Think about it.

I supported the return of the ALP government until the last week of the election. Then I changed my mind. I had reasons for both positions. They don’t have anything to do with loyalty to any party. Guess why that is?

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 4:00 pm
It was a lefty seat, so he did the right thing by his electorate (Wilkie). So can’t blame him too much for that. Oakey, on the other hand.

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 4:00 pm
If it has to go this way then fine and let the cards drop where they may.

Gillfried will have to confront a party with internal strife, a bunch of indep loons and a senate where the Left’s One-Nation Gangreens have taken over and likely pull them even further left pissing off the right supporters.

If anything this is going to be a real interesting thing to watch.

From a distance this would have been a really good time for Labor to go into opposition and fix itself up.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:04 pm
Adrien

Stop babbling. It’s not about you all the time.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:05 pm
The Independents want a 3 year term, or something close it. If a majority government forms, their influence will fade to nothing. Consequently, it’s in their best interests to seek a ‘stable’ government. This cannot happen under Abbott, since he has no chance of dealing with the Senate after July 2011. That means a DD election potentially within 12 months of the last national poll, with little likelihood that a new Senate would be more favourable to the Coalition (due to reduced quotas).

In short, the independents have no option but the ALP. Abbott’s policy vacuum and fiscal black hole don’t assist him any, either.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 4:05 pm
THR:

Since when has stable government been dependent on a senate majority or a friendly senate?

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:07 pm
Lab 5,648,658

Liberal/National Coalition 5,660,260

In the 2PP

It’s unassailable now.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:11 pm
Adrien, you’re obviously still harbouring a considerable degree of love for the “arsehole” Kevin Rudd – whose re-election you called for at the zenith of his arseholery.

Rudd was destroyed by Abbott who shelved Turnbull’s bottom-smooching model and went on the attack. Don’t try to re-write history, you far-left crank. That’s what happened. Only after this seminal event did Rudd beging to unravel. (Although, hilariously, he was no less unpopular than Gillard-led Labor – as it happens).

For the first time in 80 years a first term government had its majority destroyed. This was Abbott’s doing. More generally, the Labor Party as it has been known hitherto has ceased – for however long – to exist. It is now a new political party – which I call the GLP.

Labor and Gillard have been epically humiliated by Tony Abbott.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 4:11 pm
If Abbott were to hypothetically form a government, he’d have to push legislation through either with the assistance of the ALP or the Greens. Neither is very likely. If Gillard forms government, she’ll have to deal with the idiocy of Fielding for a few months, after which she may be able to establish a workable relationship with the Greens, and go through to a 3-year term, which is what I’m assuming the Indies are after.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 4:11 pm
I guess THR’s point is that Abbott would go for a double dissolution at the first opportunity which means the indeps would be wiped out. That’s their fear of “unstable government”.

Ken Nielsen

2 Sep 10 at 4:12 pm
Bird has put up a series of intriguing titles.
But is he licensed to write the second one?

http://graemebird.wordpress.com/2010/09/02/stone-obelisks-stone-pyramids-and-hydrogen-cannons-the-mist-clears-on-sending-payloads-into-space/

http://graemebird.wordpress.com/2010/09/01/how-to-make-a-lot-of-money-on-the-stock-market-right-now/

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 4:12 pm
“Guess why that is?”

Because you finally saw that philosphically a person of any intellectual rigour can only support the Coalition?

Don’t give us that bullshit about the ALP campaign. Nobody thought that the ALP campaign was dreadful enough to cause them to lose. They didn’t do anything in the campaign that was not typical of what they had done before. If it hadn’t been for the gerrymander in NSW we would have a close Coalition victory.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:12 pm
THR:

There’s really not that much the Libs would be doing to cause a stir with the Gangreens.

They wouldn’t be putting up any ETS legislation and they wouldn’t be trying to fuck the miners over.

Most of the Libs 3 years would be plugging up holes created by the ALP and their spending.

It would be pretty stable.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:14 pm
If Gillard had any sense of honour or guts she should call another election.

Does she really want to mark being the first female PM of Australia having to bow and scrape to other parties?

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 4:15 pm
Jason

Admit it. You only put up that last link because he tries to throw a bunch of turds my way…

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:17 pm
If it hadn’t been for the gerrymander in NSW we would have a close Coalition victory

Interesting point. I’m pretty shocked we still have this sort of thing. Each individual perceives things differently. I’m looking at this and seeing fragmentation, that’s all.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 4:17 pm
There’s really not that much the Libs would be doing to cause a stir with the Gangreens.

What would Abbott’s policy agenda be?

Spending cuts, reducing asylum seekers to three per year (presumably on the basis of unprecedented cruelty and vast expenditure) and a magic pudding budget for mental health. Either Abbott would have to consent to being a lame duck PM, or he’d be forced to an election at the earliest opportunity.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 4:18 pm
What would Abbott’s policy agenda be?

If his first order of business isn’t to raze Tasmania and horsewhip Oakeshott then I’ll never respect him.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 4:20 pm
RL, I’ve picked up on very many lefties (especially LP ones) spinning this line. Decoded, what they’re saying is this:

‘I supported Labor (as usual) until they went south in the polls in the final week. Mortified at the impending embarrassment, I switched to the Greens so as not to share in it. Cover story: ye olde ‘A Pox On Both Their Houses!’

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 4:21 pm
How the fuck is she going to satisfy all their demands?

Wilkie -integrity in government.

That would be the ALP’s last strength. In fact I would be putting that on the weakness side.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:22 pm
Rememeber that comment I made that Abbott should be merciless with listing Oakeshott bribes? Wilkie has apparently been listing all of Abbott’s bribe… Ouch. (Don’t ask for info – didn’t watch that bit, but seeing comments on it)

Interesting, isn’t it? He published a list of requests – and then uses it against them for trying to meet it. Not that I support them for trying to meet it – I didn’t like it when Gillard did it, and I don’t like it when Libs do either – but it says something not very nice about Wilkie that he’ll blurt it all out now.

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 4:23 pm
THR;

Very little of that would be going through parliament.

Spending cuts wouldn’t have to be voted on and if some did it would simply form part of the government’s budget. They could of course stop supply but I’m assuming they wouldn’t..

The boats?

That’s national security issue not requiring votes but only the right to debate.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:25 pm
I see that Meek Julia has submitted to more wowserism from Tasmanian swine. Goodbye pokies. Enjoy your $1 slots pensioners.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 4:26 pm
Jason, if you don’t stop reading Bird, you’ll go blind. You know that don’t you?

Ken Nielsen

2 Sep 10 at 4:27 pm
There’d also be welfare quarantining. Abbott is a big fan of Noel Pearson’s failed, punitive policies.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 4:27 pm
I don’t agree with Wilkie’s politics, but thinking he was doing right thing by lefty electorate, had to respect that at least (certainly more than Oakeshott, who is from a conservative electorate)

But here’s the thing: He made a list of de,mands, saying he hadn’t made up his mind. He complained that Labor didn’t meet enough of them after meeting with them. Libs offer him a lot more (apparently, Abbott caved on the hospital). And Wilkie goes with ALP and whacks Libs over head for “their” bribes.

What a nasty little man.

Fleeced

2 Sep 10 at 4:28 pm
Look I don’t blame wilkie for going that way because he barely won a majority against the ALP in his seat.

Fuck Tasmania. Get that fucking island of Centrelink “clients” out of the Federation and then lets work on Sth Australia.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:29 pm
There’d also be welfare quarantining.

One can only pray for welfare quarantining. And pray there’d be Tasmanian quarantining, but i repeat myself.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 4:30 pm
Labor got 49% of the 2PP in NSW but got 26 out of 48 seats. That is strong evidence that the electorates have been a wee bit fiddled.

However, I suppose a more charitable explanation is that the Libs piled on the votes in the elite electorates (Wentworth, North Sydney) where the voters are more likely to pay a large tax bill and didn’t do as well in the swiniging seats which tend to have more tax eaters in them.

The hatred of Labor among the real elite in business, the professions and the higher arts is now palpable. In 2007 many people said to me that they were prepared to give Labor a break if they were Howard-lite. But after 6 months, the scales fell from their eyes.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:36 pm
Can someone tell me how the Feds have the constitutional power to legislate on the size of pokie bets?

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:37 pm
RL – They’d use the corporations power, I guess.

Ken Nielsen

2 Sep 10 at 4:39 pm
Corps power? But Clubs aren’t Corporations?

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:40 pm
I’m hardly surprised, Fleeced. Wilkie is a turd and always has been. The military desk jockey was a cowardly liar on the war in Iraq – and that, after all, was his entree into the life of a “whistleblower” celebrity.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 4:40 pm
Jason, if you don’t stop reading Bird, you’ll go blind. You know that don’t you?

It’s a train wreck. We have to looksee, Ken. It’s part of my morning coffee

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:42 pm
A turd who who received 13000 votes and a desperate ginger commie zombie have now decided how much Australians may wager? Fuck this for a joke.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 4:43 pm
Of course Wilkie was going to go with the ALP, he was in a Lbaor seat. Similarly the three rural independednt are all in Coalition seats and should therefore go with the Coalition. That is the convention that should always be followed. Everything else is just flim flam. After all if the indies’ constituents wanted a Labor government they would have voted 1 or 2 for the ALP i big numbers in those seats. Absent the indies all these seats would have gone to the Coalition. The indies are therfore honour bound to support the Coalition on supply and no confidence motions.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:45 pm
Infidel

Stay off the pokies.You can’t win nay money on them.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:45 pm
The military desk jockey was a cowardly liar on the war in Iraq – and that, after all, was his entree into the life of a “whistleblower” celebrity.

Except that he didn’t lie. He revealed that the threat of Iraq (now known to be utterly laughable) was exaggerated, and was then subject to a vicious smear campaign by Downer and his friends in News Ltd. For ‘cowardly’, you may wish to see the example of our libelous friend, Bolt.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
Dam keyboaard is dying. Sorry about the typos. It’s Homer’s revenge!!

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
RL

They’re no honor bound at all. They’re only bound by their way of figuring out how they survive next time around. That’s all.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
Ken

I believe the Bird has a post on you too, something with the title ‘Ken Nielsen – idiot as homo sapiens’ or something along those lines,

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
The hatred of Labor among the real elite in business, the professions and the higher arts is now palpable.

If only this fact could be publicised a little more, and the electorate would never flirt with a Tory government ever again.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 4:47 pm
Spending cuts, reducing asylum seekers to three per year (presumably on the basis of unprecedented cruelty and vast expenditure) and a magic pudding budget for mental health.

There’s also his maternal leave scheme which tends to contradict his spending cuts. But the guy will have to cave in to Katter’s demands, and who knows what else.

Either Abbott would have to consent to being a lame duck PM, or he’d be forced to an election at the earliest opportunity.

Either way we’ll probably have an election soon. I don’t think the ALP/Greens thing can last in government. If they bond in opposition, then maybe. But the interests they represent are too different.

Refugees are a big albatross for the ALP, they’re a major factor in Greens’ support. Gay marriage, another luvvie item that’s sure to alienate the ALP’s traditional base. They have enough problems. Forget it. If they formed government it would make the last year of Kevvie look like the reign of Marcus Aurelius.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 4:49 pm
RL – What exactly constitutes the ‘higher arts’ in this country?

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 4:50 pm
lol… Ken… you need to address that comment at his blog with a comment.

Anyway congratulations as you’ve joined the club of Birdie’s prey. It’s a motley crew but it’s fun in the end.

The thing I can’t figure about the vandal is

1. He seems to have a soft spot (used loosely) for Bob Brown who is fanatical about AGW.

2. He despises me for being a bit AGW- way inclined.

You’re not making any sense Bird, you idiot. It should he the other way around.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:51 pm
I’ve never played a pokie in my life. If it doesn’t have a jockey, I don’t back it. But I’ll be damned if I’ll be dictated to by tinpot inbred apple growing fascists on what I may do with my god damn money. It’s these little things that fuck society. You can’t drive 1kmh over the speed limit, you can’t smoke in a pub, you can’t drink near a footpath, you can’t put that bottle in that bin, you can’t bet on that, you can’t eat that burger… luckily you can form a daisy chain, root anything you want and celebrate by adopting some poor baby. The only freedom these turds care about is sexual freedom.

Inch by inch these pricks are destroying all of life’s little pleasures.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 4:52 pm
Inch by inch these pricks are destroying all of life’s little pleasures.

Well except for groupsex with goats.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 4:54 pm
I really don’t get the pleasure in sticking money in a pokie. I wouldn’t control or ban it, but what an absurd human affliction.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:54 pm
Adrien

I was thinking about classical music, because of my involvement with it.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:55 pm
RL

Conservative classical music aficionado’s do NOT wear Armani suits. You ought to be ashamed of yourself.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 4:56 pm
JC

Of course the indies are honour bound to follow the convention of listening to the wishes of their constituents. The question is whether they have any honour?

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:57 pm
Re Wilikie of the Third Armoured Desk Battalion:

It also turns out that Wilkie’s saintly WMD reputation isn’t entirely deserved. Contrary to widespread belief, the former intelligence officer agreed with pre-invasion theories about Saddam Hussein’s arms stocks.

“He could create a humanitarian disaster as part of a scorched-earth policy once he realises the game is up,” Wilkie told The Bulletin before the war.

“He could do it with weapons of mass destruction. He’s already used chemical weapons against the Kurds, and he could do the same again.”

Wilkie also lied about John Howard ‘lying’ about WMD. The Iraq War was never exclusively about WMD and every intelligence agency in the world was in broad agreement. Kim Beazley and Kevin Rudd agreed.

Wilkie decided to become a celebrity on the issue for his own advantage. He was – and obviously still is – a coward.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 4:59 pm
I was thinking about classical music, because of my involvement with it.

Indeed. I’ll pay that one. They’re all Tories? Funny that. Funnilly enough they provide the one solid justification for public patronage.

Lots of people at LP don;t seem to get that. They reckon we should stop subsidizing Mozart and give the money to people who play the trumpet with the wrong end of their digestive system instead.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 4:59 pm
JC

Bollocks

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 4:59 pm
RL
I think Windsor does actually. I really think he’s conflicted because he wants to head Labor’s way.

Katter is simply crazy

Oakeshitt is a little pansy green wannabe but lied to his electorate.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 5:00 pm
…people who play the trumpet with the wrong end of their digestive system instead.

But enough about Adrien’s band camp memories…

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 5:03 pm
RL Mind if you ask what your involvement in music is?

Ken n

2 Sep 10 at 5:03 pm
There is always going to be a shortfall in ticket prices for classical events, because the costs of mounting them are so high. However, the vast majority of the shortfall is made up of sponsorship and donations.

SOmeone the other day told me that classical music should get subsidies because it is the preferred entertainment of those who pay the majority of the taxes.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 5:04 pm
Wilkie decided to become a celebrity on the issue for his own advantage. He was – and obviously still is – a coward.

What advantage? He lost his job. He resigned from it before the war in Iraq began, clearly contradicting your quote above. The real reason for the vitriol against Wilkie is that he stated that the real reason for war had nothing to do with WMDs:

http://www.pressclubonline.com/Assets/33/1/AndrewWilkieSpeech.pdf

THR

2 Sep 10 at 5:04 pm
SOmeone the other day told me that classical music should get subsidies because it is the preferred entertainment of those who pay the majority of the taxes.

If we must subsidise art, let’s subsidise the ticket price.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 5:06 pm
Ken

I am on the board of an Orchestra.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 5:06 pm
Oakeshitt’s bio.

Oakeshott was born in Lismore. His father, also named Rob Oakeshott, is still a doctor in the area and his grandfather Captain John Oakeshott was a prisoner of war and survived the Sandakan Death Marches.

Oakeshott attended Barker College as a high school student and was a boarder in his latter years there. He then studied at the University of Sydney.[5] He was a resident of St. Andrew’s College while Peter Cameron was the Principal and was convicted of heresy by the Presbyterian Church of Australia. Oakeshott describes Cameron as an influence on his thinking:

As a student he was a pretty interesting fellow but standing on his digs over some of the speeches and some of the sermons he used to give. And in his parting speech to the students, he said, “I hope the great lesson I’ve taught you as the leader of this college is that you’ve got to stand up for what you believe in regardless of the consequences.”

Oakeshott graduated with a Bachelor of Arts with Honours in Government in 1992.[5] He then worked as an administrative officer at the Road Transport Forum and as a staffer for National Party Leader Mark Vaile before his own election to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly.

1. So he graduated in Arts/ government. Stands to reason.

2. He grandpa would be turning in his grave.

3. What’s with the Presbyterian stuff?

JC

2 Sep 10 at 5:06 pm
JC

That is a fair estimation of the situation.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 5:06 pm
Captain John Oakeshott was a prisoner of war and survived the Sandakan Death Marches.

Impressive genes, but not all of Danehill’s progeny are champions either.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 5:09 pm
“He lost his job. He resigned from it…”

What a Church Norris-level act.

He resigned.

Wow.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 5:10 pm
Homer:

(Where is he when you need him once every 15 years)

Please explain what happened with the Preso stuff. Why did Cameron get yanked?

JC

2 Sep 10 at 5:11 pm
THR

So you hate the real achievers that much do you?

I suspect that the Tory vote would actually increase out in the swinging seats if it were made more plain that the movers and shakers think the ALP is a lump of absolute dog shite.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 5:11 pm
Press Club celebrity Wilkie:

In fact, Prime Minister Howard on various occasions described it as massive and on at least one occasion described the arsenal as mammoth. A scary picture indeed.

Pre-celebrity Wilkie:

“He could create a humanitarian disaster as part of a scorched-earth policy once he realises the game is up,” Wilkie told The Bulletin before the war.

“He could do it with weapons of mass destruction. He’s already used chemical weapons against the Kurds, and he could do the same again.”

A scary picture indeed.

He also lied at the Press Club re Saddam and al Qaeda – linking this to John Howard. In fact, the link had already been made twice: both times by the Clinton Administration.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 5:14 pm
So you hate the real achievers that much do you?

It’s not a question of hate. I think it would be a wonderful moment for the left in Australia if the ‘movers and shakers’ (James Packer, the Double Bay chamber orchestra, etc) revealed their deep affiliation with Tory politics.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 5:16 pm
Homer, don’t move a muscle. Wiki has done the job.

No wonder Oakeshitt liked this dude.

In 1993 Dr Cameron was charged with heresy for challenging Christian beliefs, as Samuel Angus, a previous professor at St Andrew’s College, had been in the 1930s. Whereas Angus was finally acquitted, Cameron was convicted by the Presbyterian Church of Australia of heresy for disagreeing with the first chapter of the Westminster Confession of Faith, which as a minister of the Presbyterian Church of Australia, he was required “firmly and constantly to adhere thereto and to the utmost of [his] power to maintain and defend”, by questioning the writings of Paul in the New Testament.

The charge related to a sermon that he preached on 2 March 1992 called The Place of Women in the Church to 300 members of a Dorcas Society Rally (a Presbyterian women’s organisation) in the consevative Ashfield Presbyterian Church. In the sermon Cameron supported the ordination of women to the ministry, criticised the church’s hard line on homosexuality, and attacked fundamentalist Christianity in general. According to Bruce Christian, a member of the Sydney Presbytery in the Presbyterian Church, Cameron was prosecuted for his attitude to Scripture in the lecture, stating: “The point he actually made at the public rally was that there was little value in arguing the hermeneutics of 1 Timothy 2:11-15 on the ordination of women, the simple fact is that Paul got it wrong.”

JC

2 Sep 10 at 5:17 pm
hmm if this is one of the major orchestras, armed with Wikipedia and Google, someone with time on their hands could finally work out the identity of Rococo …

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 5:17 pm
Oakeshott:

“I hope the great lesson I’ve taught you as the leader of this college is that you’ve got to stand up for what you believe in regardless of the consequences.”

If he still believes that, this guy will support Labor even if it means political oblivion. Which it will.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 5:19 pm
Which would be confirmed with his disturbing panache for wearing Armani suits.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 5:21 pm
SOmeone the other day told me that classical music should get subsidies because it is the preferred entertainment of those who pay the majority of the taxes.

If we must subsidise art, let’s subsidise the ticket price.

Oh sure, one starts earning 6 figure sums pa and suddenly classical music has appeal? Too much classical music is tedious and constrained. Jazz is a far superior musical form, and contemporary music as a whole is much, much more creative than classical music.

Modern music reproduction very much mitigates against the appreciation of classical music. MP3′s etc severely compress the audio signal, leading to a loss of subtlety, which is very important in classical music. A full appreciation of classical music requires listening to it live or having a very expensive sound system($10,000+) together with specific sound absorbing materials(I used to have a type of “rubber” set up behind my speakers). In various houses of audiophiles I have heard extraordinary musical reproduction, so much so that listening to that type of sound reproduction can easily spoil listening to your average audio reproduction device.

Modern technology is limiting our appreciation of some types of music, especially if you love the stuff that the German ECM label puts out. So if you really want to learn to appreciate classical music – and in my experience a new musical style can require months of listening before you “get it”, then invest in a high quality sound system or get thee to one of those rent seeking live performances.

John H.

2 Sep 10 at 5:28 pm
Keystone cops are running the country

tal

2 Sep 10 at 5:29 pm
Can’t he fling a coupla hundi there way?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/key-independents-discuss-mining-tax-with-andrew-forrest/story-fn59niix-1225913337674

JC

2 Sep 10 at 5:36 pm
How do you euthanase a whale?

With explosives:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/lifestyle/the-other-side/stranded-whale-in-western-australian-harbour-will-be-blown-up/story-e6frfhk6-1225913353909

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 5:50 pm
Ah, I love the measured and sober tone of Catallaxy in the mourning.

With the large proviso that I may not yet need them at all, it still seems apt that I start preparing my gloating comments for a Gillard win. What do you suggest IT? Remember I eschew swearing, by and large, so any phrase should use the correct medical/anatomical terms. Suggestions welcome….

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 5:56 pm
it still seems apt that I start preparing my gloating comments for a Gillard win

So you’ve dropped the pretense of being a conservative, Steve? Your ALP partisanship is now in the open I see.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 6:01 pm
Dunno about that Infidel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkZottYDpEE

JC

2 Sep 10 at 6:03 pm
no no Dad…. Stave’s a conservative, remember?

Lol

He thought he could fool this tough crowd. What an idiot he is.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 6:05 pm
Don’t celebrate your pyrrhic victory too hard, Steve, would be my advice. I’d then probably invite you to give yourself a prostate exam using your head.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 6:07 pm
He’s really an offensive, little passive aggressive git. I’m affronted that he actually thought he could fool people here for a second.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 6:10 pm
What is to celebrate Steve? We now have two prospective PMs who are dishonest in their budget reporting. At least now we know the real reason they didn’t want treasury to do the costings. An outright liar trying to hide his number games. And obviously HWK didn’t do their homework. Suck eggs people, I told you that there is value in multiple reviews and that trusting a commissioned body to give an accurate account of their client’s claims is like trusting pharmaceutical companies research about their products.

Have sympathy for the independents, how do you choose between rotten alternatives?

John H.

2 Sep 10 at 6:12 pm
Tks RL – Classical music (some) is an important part of my life but I don’t believe my hobbies should be subsidized.
Ten years ago my wife and I accidentally started an opera company (mostly because we didn’t like opera) and now I am starting a record label…..

Ken n

2 Sep 10 at 6:15 pm
SOmeone the other day told me that classical music should get subsidies because it is the preferred entertainment of those who pay the majority of the taxes.

I had a stoush or two with a dude at LP and said the same thing. If you want public patronage to survive you have to consider the benefits to people who don;t share your tastes.

Classical music has an excuse because it takes many years of dedication, is very expensive to set up, has an obvious high cultural value because of the skill and tradition involved.

Bottom line: you don’t need a grant to write a book, just paper and pens. Classical music? Perhaps. But all of the left-wing stuff about it being elitist is foolish. If it isn’t elitist there’s a marketplace to support it. And also: Art isn’t democratic. It’s supposed to be elite.

It’s a question of access. To start a rock band takes very little capital and training. To start a symphony orchestra?

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 6:38 pm
OI! Noone has reacted to my latest on Gillard Redux. C’mon how about some thoughtful or abusive comments?

Ken n

2 Sep 10 at 6:46 pm
Spare us the ‘Pox on Both Their Houses’ sophistry, John. Abbott’s intention was to submit the budget costings; that’s before Labor’s mates in Treasury illegally leaked dribs and drabs in order to throw an election. Or did you miss that? This ‘costings’ fetish is ridiculous. Rudd and Gillard promised surpluses as far as the eye could see in 2007. Three years later, we’re $50 billion in the red.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 7:34 pm
No, more than a pox, every conceivable plague. There is absolutely no justification for figure fudging. Anyone who does that is an asshole. I am never going to support parties that deliberately engage in propaganda.

John H.

2 Sep 10 at 7:37 pm
So Steve now admits that he was lying when he claimed he didn’t support either party.

Doesn’t matter.

John, you sound like a conspiracist. Why would the firm doing the costings for the Coalition play along with a dastardly attempt to “lie” about so-called costings?

Had Labor’s Treasury not unlawfully tried to swing an election with leaks, the numbers would have been quite unceremoniously submitted to that department (whose mining tax figures were out by about $12 billion).

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 7:45 pm
There is absolutely no justification for figure fudging. Anyone who does that is an asshole.

Did the coalition fudge figures? Sinclair has a post on this explaining that the “black hole” occurs in the distant future where a lot of assumptions come into play.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 7:50 pm
Breaking News:

Wilkie, after many days of careful deliberation, has decided to go with Labor.

I almost had a heart attack.

Yobbo

2 Sep 10 at 7:55 pm
Why would WHK Howarth “fudge” figures and damage their reputation in the process?

There is no freaking “hole.” There is a subjective (not quantitative) perspective on future budgeting being given by one party and another perspective being given by Treasury. Governments always have this advantage in this ‘costings’ circus. Their figures – done by Treasury – are always just right! Imagine that. The Opposition’s always have “black holes.”

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 7:57 pm
Why would the firm doing the costings for the Coalition play along with a dastardly attempt to “lie” about so-called costings?

It was, somehow, in their interests to do so?

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 8:01 pm
John H – Anyone who does that is an asshole.

Asshole synonymous with polician.

I am never going to support parties that deliberately engage in propaganda.

Why so verbose. Just say “I am never going to support parties”.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 8:03 pm
No it’s certainly not in their interests to do so. If it came out that they basically whitewashed the whole thing the firm would be fucked reputation wise.

This is what I really don’t get with fucking leftwingers (not necessarily you, Adrien).

The accounting firm would suffer serious reputational damage if they lied, or at least there would be serious risk of that.

Yet we’ve had a government department (Treasury) lie for the government at every opportunity and at times create fictitious accounts, yet because these rubes earn a taxpayer-funded salary they’re off the hook.

It’s like some sort of cognitive dissonance with you people. It’s like lies are totally dependent of whether someone earns a government salary and if they do they can’t possibly be accused of lying.

We have the biggest fucking bullshit being peddled by the current government and their supporters in Treasury where the NBN is uncosted , without an CBA and off budget, which in the private domain would mean someone going to jail for committing Enron like crimes, yet the libs are the bad guys in this because their long dated projections could be out by $7 billion. And $7 billion would be no more than .5% in the accumulated (rolled-up) spending in the outer years.

What a fucked up situation this is turning out to be

If we take a dive the Lab budget will see us go into UK territory where we find our deficit jumping to 10% of GDP without the least hestitaion.

But hey, it’s the price on carbon we should be worried about. Lol

FFS.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 8:17 pm
The accounting firm would suffer serious reputational damage if they lied, or at least there would be serious risk of that.

True. Didn’t stop Arthur Anderson did it?

I’m not saying Abbott’s figures are fudged or the Libs accountants fudged their costings or anything. I’m just suggesting a vague reasons they may have if they did.

The damage they’d sustain if caught is the risk, is there a reason to take it? I don’t see one. But if these questions don;t get asked then you help minimize the risks taken by those who’d cook books for fun and profit. Abbott’s numbers don’t seem well worked out to me but I haven’t seen anything comparable to the Swan/Treasury clusterfuck.

Chill Winston.

Adrien

2 Sep 10 at 8:25 pm
I am helping to start a new orchestra. So it won’t be on Wikipedia yet Jason.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 8:25 pm
“yet because these rubes earn a taxpayer-funded salary they’re off the hook.”

That is a brilliantly perceptive comment JC. The problem with the left is that they actually believe that somehow Government is above contention, that unlike commerce Government is somehow noble and never corrupt. We on the right, on the other hand assume that government is, by its very nature corrupt and self seeking.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 8:27 pm
The whole thing is a disgrace. On all relevant indices, Gillard lost. Primaries, her own much vaunted 2PP, the overwhelming majorities in Lyne, Kennedy and New England. When – not if – Mary and Bruce Hawker’s cousin convert their petty vendettas with the Coalition into support for Gillard, we will have experienced Australia’s first coup d’état.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 8:33 pm
I’m just suggesting a vague reasons they may have if they did.

Name one.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 8:33 pm
True. Didn’t stop Arthur Anderson did it?

Yes it did. They’re finished and they no longer exist.

And you know what later came out, Adrien. A superior court judge handling equity cases in NY found them to be nowhere near as culpable as first made out.

Read his findings and gasp a little.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 8:34 pm
Steve from B

You forget that the ALP has already lost by not getting their girl a majority like all other first term governments since the Great Depression. Tony Abbott has had a triumph by getting more primaries, more 2PP and more seats than Labor. If Labor is more corrupt in its bribery of the indies and green then I for one won’t care that much, because I don’t think the new government will get slaughtered in the next election, with the added bonus that the loopy Greens, once they are put in the spotlight, will also go down in a screaming heap.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 8:38 pm
Actually Arthur Andersen did a reverse take over of Ernst & Young here in Oz.

Rococo Liberal

2 Sep 10 at 8:40 pm
RL

In the US they were finished, totally disbanded and hounded out of business, despite a judge later coming out and suggesting the government destroyed them.

Funny that…. as funny as cricket ball hitting you in he nutclappers.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 8:46 pm
Strike a blooming light. You should hear this triumvirate of dickheads speaking on Sky. They’re as desperate to go Labor as a young boy is to beat his member. These fookers are insane.

As an aside – Katter wants to ban imported food. Lunatics.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 8:47 pm
Government always does good.

On May 31, 2005, in the case Arthur Andersen LLP v. United States, the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously reversed Andersen’s conviction due to what it saw as serious flaws in the jury instructions.[5] In the court’s view, the instructions were far too vague to allow a jury to find obstruction of justice had really occurred. The court found that the instructions were worded in such a way that Andersen could have been convicted without any proof that the firm knew it had broken the law or that there had been a link to any official proceeding that prohibited the destruction of documents. The opinion, written by Chief Justice William Rehnquist, was also highly skeptical of the government’s concept of “corrupt persuasion”—persuading someone to engage in an act with an improper purpose even without knowing an act is unlawful.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 8:51 pm
Katter wants our dollar back to 50cents. And interest rates equivalent to Japan and the US. Fun times ahead.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 8:53 pm
Dear Lord, Katter is a dead set regression back to 1930′s kookery. He’s completely off his fucking bonce.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 8:59 pm
Crikey the irony that’s beating, fruitlessly, at the heads of these three idiots.

LOCAL, LOCAL, LOCAL, they cry.

Katter, Oakeshott and Windsor to their electorates: Drop Dead.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 9:01 pm
Your last comment made it QED RL.

Don’t worry I won’t tell.

jtfsoon

2 Sep 10 at 9:05 pm
According to Oakeshott 7 million Australians are functionally illiterate and innumerate! I thought that was just Catallaxy crackpots.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 9:09 pm
This is too delicious (assuming it’s true):

“Labor secured the Tasmanian MP’s support with $340 million in funding for a renovation of the Royal Hobart Hospital and a commitment to increase restrictions on poker machines.

Mr Wilkie revealed Mr Abbott had made a more generous offer, including $1 billion for the Royal Hobart renovation, but chose to go with Labor’s smaller offer instead.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/02/3001083.htm
So, Mr Bigger Surplus Sooner was prepared to try to be the King of local Pork, and it backfired.

Feeling proud of his tactics, hey Catallaxians?

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 9:10 pm
So what you’re saying, Steve, is that you approve of desk commando Wilkie lying to the Australian public about just wanting to get the best deal for the good burghers of Tasmania. When, in fact, he always intended to support Labor and now has to explain being exposed as a fraud – which he’s attempting to do by suggesting Abbott was too generous.

Always the same modus operandi with you, Steve, re lies.

“Doesn’t matter.”

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 9:32 pm
Wilke has wanted only the appearance of impartiality; he’s in fact been leaning Labor for the last two weeks.

dover_beach

2 Sep 10 at 9:40 pm
The whole thing is a disgrace. On all relevant indices, Gillard lost. Primaries, her own much vaunted 2PP, the overwhelming majorities in Lyne, Kennedy and New England.

We can expect more of these bleatings and ravings, and particularly from the News Ltd media. They are the petty consolations of the vanquished. In reality, we have a result largely similar to 1998, in which Howard lost the popular vote, but just managed to keep government. This time it’s been slightly more precarious for the government, but only modestly so. There is no way that Abbott can form anything other than a lame duck government for 3 years. There’s no way that any thinking person would be a fan of Abbott’s economic dishonesty, policy incompetence, and the prank calls his comrades made to the family of Oakeshott. If there’s any coup d’etat to be had, it would be Abbott as PM.

THR

2 Sep 10 at 9:40 pm
I says let Labor have this term and watch how it works out for them.

This was the unfinished term of the Whitlam government and if that venomous prick, Malcontent Fraser hadn’t pushed it would have left labor in a rump at the next election.

Watch how in 6 months times max these same 3 indeps will be sucking up to the libs for a pardon.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 9:46 pm
A Prime Minister destroyed.
Best ministers bail.
First first term majority in 80 years destroyed.
Won primary vote (most common choice was an Abbott government).
Won 2PP (biggest preference was an Abbott government)
Won most seats.
Won overwhelming majorities in key three.
Federal ALP ceases to exist as independent entity.

THR: Coalition “Vanquished.”

Sub-Homeric parody.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 9:49 pm
I Watched those 3 doofuses on Sky. Trust me when I say this and there is no rancor that they’re likely heading Gillard’s way, but you don’t want to be teaming up with those loons at all as they would ruin you.

They’re freaking crazy.

Sometimes like in trading you just gotta let a trade go, as it’s too risky despite the possibility of making money. The downside is far too great.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 9:53 pm
“…appearance of impartiality…”

This has, in fact, been his stock in trade since he lied about Iraq and resigned in disgrace.

Let me just run through that checklist again – because the coup d’etat we’re witnessing is extraordinary:

- A Prime Minister, Rudd, destroyed.
- The first time a first-term government majority has been destroyed in 80 years.
- Coalition won primary vote (most common choice was an Abbott government).
- Coalition won 2PP (biggest preference was an Abbott government)
- Coalition won most seats.
- Coalition won overwhelming majorities in key three.

Result: a Bjelke-Petersenesque Gillard junta.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 9:55 pm
in which Howard lost the popular vote,

So you admit that Gillard lost the popular vote? Good.

There is no way that Abbott can form anything other than a lame duck government for 3 years.

You say this but I can think of any number of bills that would receive support from either Labor or the Greens. Do you imagine that the Greens wouldn’t support the PPLS?

There’s no way that any thinking person would be a fan of Abbott’s economic dishonesty, policy incompetence,

Economic dishonesty? That would be the NBN as an off-budget item. Policy incompetence? That would be the BER, Green Loans, insulation scheme, GroceryWatch, etc.

dover_beach

2 Sep 10 at 9:58 pm
The only sane answer to what’s happening is another election. Gillard’s crazy enough without having to combine union hackery with Katternomics and green mysticism. Give me full strength Labor over Labor with a lemon twist.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 10:15 pm
CL’s in mantra reciting mode again. I suppose it must be very comforting in this time of alleged trauma. Anyhow, from your list:

* a PM being sacked before an election has nothing to do with the question of legitimacy of a government after an election.

* Nor does the history of how first term governments don’t usually lose (or do you work on the theory that opposition leaders who get close enough deserve the cigar just for that?)

* primary vote does not decide who governs in preferential system

* you prepared to wait out another 2 or 3 weeks for the 2PP are you?

* Coalition only gets more seats by counting someone who has said he may yet sit on cross benches.

It’s only a junta in your addled tribal mind.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 10:16 pm
Ken sorry for not commenting on your Gillard thread,everytime time think about Jools I get Benny Hill music in my head,it is not pleasent

tal

2 Sep 10 at 10:18 pm
Steve on the GLCP* coup d’tat: Doesn’t matter.

And Steve, thanks for admitting by implication that you repeatedly lied when you said you weren’t supporting either party.

*Green Labor Country Party

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 10:19 pm
Good call, Tal.

The Gillard ‘government’ theme:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK6TXMsvgQg

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 10:20 pm
Joooooolya drove the fastesr milkcart in the west

tal

2 Sep 10 at 10:25 pm
There’s no doubt a connection exists between the left’s extremist Roe-Wade and environmental rhetoric and the actions of the Discovery Channel gunman:

Suspect James Lee Rails in Manifesto Against ‘Filthy Human Babies’.

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 10:29 pm
Well there seems to be one less now, right?

What did the AlGore fanatic have against the Discovery Channel? I can’t imagine what it could be as it’s so innocuous, but then again anything could send off an Algore fanatic.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 10:31 pm
Did they run an uncomplimentary piece on the growing environmental menace of wild sex poodles?

C.L.

2 Sep 10 at 10:36 pm
Not to mention the widening girth. Funny but as he got more famous outside of politics the fatter he got.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 10:39 pm
Sometimes like in trading you just gotta let a trade go, as it’s too risky despite the possibility of making money. The downside is far too great.

This is a very astute observation. Bargaining has no meaning if you’re prepared to pay any cost.

The independents already fucked over Abbott, by forcing him to get Treasury costings then using it against him; and Wilkie making demands then holding it against Abbott when he agreed.
With Abbott out of the picture, these guys won’t have anyone left to screw now except for Labor and Greens.

Watch how in 6 months times max these same 3 indeps will be sucking up to the libs for a pardon

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 10:42 pm
Good thing the PM has a hairdresser on standby she’ll go totally grey overnight working with this mob

tal

2 Sep 10 at 10:47 pm
It’s all liars, liars, liars under the bed in CL’s house.

Simple fact is, this is a looking like it will be a good outcome for someone like me who was reluctant to give outright support (that is, by voting) to either party in the House of Reps.

But from the sidelines, why shouldn’t I take pleasure in seeing Abbott not form government? I’m sorry if I did not make it clear enough before, but I do not approve of him as leader due to what I consider both his ill suited personality and his weathervane policy settings which have infected his party.

Gillard has made significant mistakes too, but I strongly suspect she is more suited to working in a minority government, and I basically find her personality, as far as I can judge through a TV set, more likeable.

As I have already noted, I love the irony that what you praised him for (being an aggro Opposition leader) works against Abbott in his current task.

Truth is, informal voters like me have reason to feel we are the real winners in this election: neither side won a clear endorsement of their approach and policies, and have to modify them at least to some extent.

Yay for me. (Unless of course Abbott does become leader.)

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 10:50 pm
Steve , this is why I have no patience with you. You’re basically fucking pretending you’re not a leftwing supporter..

Look:

(I put this in reverse order to just show better how stupidly dishonest you really are… you liar.)

But from the sidelines, why shouldn’t I take pleasure in seeing Abbott not form government?

for someone like me who was reluctant to give outright support (that is, by voting) to either party in the House of Reps.

Dickhead, if you weren’t supporting either party you wouldn’t by definition care who formed government.

It’s like shooting a tuna in barrel with you too.

What’s really fucking offensive is that you think you can fool us here. That’s what really gets me about you, not that you’re a leftwigner.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 10:57 pm
Truth is, informal voters like me have…

Stop right there, you limp dicked girly man. Informal voters like you don’t get a say. Save your tiresome driblle for your pillow, you insufferable bore.

Infidel Tiger

2 Sep 10 at 10:57 pm
Truth is, informal voters like me have reason to feel we are the real winners in this election: neither side won a clear endorsement of their approach and policies, and have to modify them at least to some extent.

If you voted informal, that’s the same as not voting. Therefore, you can’t be a “winner” because you didn’t participate in the election. You didn’t vote for a hung parliament; you didn’t vote for independents to hold the balance of power; and you didn’t vote for the parties policies to be ‘modified to some extent’.
Don’t kid yourself that you’re a winner because you voted informal.
You’re a winner because your team is likely to form government.

Yay for me. (Unless of course Abbott does become leader.)

Indeed.

daddy dave

2 Sep 10 at 10:58 pm
Good thing the PM has a hairdresser on standby she’ll go totally grey overnight working with this mob

Katter wants lower interest rates because, he says, higher interest rates are a subsidy from the city from the country.

Oakeshitt wants to enact the Garnaut report but although Katter is an angry disbeliever in climate change he thinks we can solve the dispute with ethanol and sticking more solar and propellers in the country. Windsor agrees with Katter.

This is what Labor in buying into in addition to the maniacs from the Geeen side.

Good fucking luck fellas and lady… trying to run the country.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:02 pm
oops… to the city from the country.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:06 pm
“Therefore, you can’t be a “winner” because you didn’t participate in the election.”

In fact what I said I feel like a winner, which is subtly different. So maybe we’re both right, d-d.

I say that in the spirit of co-operative, less adversarial ways of doing things sweeping the land at the moment. Heh.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 11:09 pm
Steve:

Let me repeat again what you said and why you’re considered by nearly everyone here to be a dishonest turd.

But from the sidelines, why shouldn’t I take pleasure in seeing Abbott not form government?

for someone like me who was reluctant to give outright support (that is, by voting) to either party in the House of Reps.

These two points are impossible to go together. You know that. We know that, so please stop the bullshit.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:12 pm
You haven’t got with the vibe yet, JC, I see.

steve from brisbane

2 Sep 10 at 11:26 pm
You’re really pathetic, Steve, but you know that.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:31 pm
WTF?

CHICAGO (CBS) ?

Gang members themselves are the latest to come out against police Supt. Jody Weis’ strategy to put pressure on them and curb gang violence.

At 10 a.m., gang members are expected to hold a news conference at the Columbus Park Refectory, at 5701 W. Jackson Blvd. on the city’s West Side

Gang leaders now giving press conferences. LOL

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:34 pm
The Labour-Green wrecking ball hasn’t won yet. In fact they are still at a disadvantage numbers-wise. The left are subjecting us to the “assumptive sale” and unfortunately everyone appears to be going along with it. They have people talking as if they have already won. Should they lose they will be nailing it down in history that they were robbed.

The most disgraceful behavior has been by Ken Henry. No serious and responsible treasurer would pull a stunt like that. But Ken is an ideologue and he’s pinned back his ears for the big payoff. He’ll do anything he can to have his carbon tax.

If Ken Henry can act like this it makes you wonder if our GG isn’t also a well-placed leftist nut.

karl

2 Sep 10 at 11:42 pm
Karl

I/we’re only going with what we’re seeing and the three buddies aren’t acting at all sensible. Perhaps you can tell us how you’re so uncertain.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:46 pm
Jeez not even GOP incumbent’s are safe. Americans really do punish.

Is the tea party the new Republican Party?

The grass-roots network of fed-up conservative-libertarian displayed its power in its biggest triumph of the election year: the toppling of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s GOP primary. Political novice Joe Miller is the fifth tea party insurgent to win a GOP Senate nominating contest, an upset that few, if any, saw coming.

With the stunning outcome, the fledgling tea party coalition and voters who identify with its anti-tax, anti-spending sentiments proved that democracy is alive and well — within the Republican Party. Don’t like who is representing you? Rise up, fire them and choose someone new.

JC

2 Sep 10 at 11:55 pm
…someone like me who was reluctant to give outright support (that is, by voting) to either party in the House of Reps.

Steve: still pretending to be Alan Jones caller ‘Steve from Brisbane who is a conservative Christian unhappy with Tony Abbott.’

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 12:19 am
…..someone like me who was reluctant to give outright support (that is, by voting) to either party in the House of Reps.

Steve: still pretending to be Alan Jones caller ‘Steve from Brisbane who is a conservative Christian unhappy with Tony Abbott.

yes ummm no umm yes… look because he also said this:

?But from the sidelines, why shouldn’t I take pleasure in seeing Abbott not form government?

He’s such an idiot.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 12:23 am
As I have already noted, I love the irony that what you praised him for (being an aggro Opposition leader) works against Abbott in his current task.

I love the irony that you support the weathervane woman (~~Real, Fake, Real, Fake, Real~~ Fake Julia) who soon after assassinating your Copenhagen hero, Kevin Rudd, dumped the ETS.

But no. The two Greens, Brandt and Wilkie, were always going to support Labor. So were at least two of the three ex-Nats because of their well-known desire to avenge themselves for long forgotten intra-party tiffs.

Wilkie was dishonest with the Australian people – pretending to be negotiating when he was in fact only posing for the cameras.

And Steve, certainly you were lying when you claimed to be a disinterested observer who didn’t support either party.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 12:29 am
Jeez not even GOP incumbent’s are safe. Americans really do punish.

Britain, Aus, and the USA – people are fed up with party politics. Party politics makes people stupid and hypocritical, we’ve seen buckets of evidence of that lately.

It seems that the Tea Party is becoming the new public face of libertarianism in the USA. Not sure that is a good thing.

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 12:41 am
And Steve, certainly you were lying when you claimed to be a disinterested observer who didn’t support either party.

But of course he wasn’t see here.

“…..someone like me who was reluctant to give outright support (that is, by voting) to either party in the House of Reps.”

But

“But from the sidelines, why shouldn’t I take pleasure in seeing Abbott not form government?”

Who is this idiot fooling?

JC

3 Sep 10 at 12:43 am
Why would it not be a good thing, John?

And from what I’ve seen of ‘independent’ politics, the traditional parties are rank amateurs when it comes to hypocrisy. The three ex-Nationals, for example, claim to want to make heard the voices of local electorates. Which, of course, they’re undemocratically refusing to do.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 12:46 am
Number of voters in Tony Windsor’s electorate who backed Labor: 8 percent.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 12:47 am
It seems that the Tea Party is becoming the new public face of libertarianism in the USA. Not sure that is a good thing.

It’s truly a great thing John. It’s a wonderful thing.

The public is finally getting out the pitchforks and saying enough is enough. They’ve had it up to their necks with these lying cowards.. mostly from the Demolition party.

These are the people that are going to put the country back on its financial footing once and for all.

If incumbent GOP’ers aren’t safe not even then no one is.

It’s over. Well almost. IT looks like the start of the new republic.

This is a country built on this type of revolt . It’s in their DNA.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 12:48 am
Karl is right, it’s not over yet. But it looks pretty hopeless for the Coalition.

But no. The two Greens, Brandt and Wilkie, were always going to support Labor. So were at least two of the three ex-Nats because of their well-known desire to avenge themselves for long forgotten intra-party tiffs.

Wilkie is not a man of the left, by any means. The other three indies clearly have ideological affinities with the ALP, ‘conservative’ appearances notwithstanding.

You say this but I can think of any number of bills that would receive support from either Labor or the Greens. Do you imagine that the Greens wouldn’t support the PPLS?

That’s one bill, DB. I can’t imagine any others. Certainly, I can imagine the Coalition passing some trivial and non-descript reform bills, but there’s no way they’ll be able to implement their basic election promises, much less their broader ideological agenda.

THR

3 Sep 10 at 12:50 am
And John if the US is not financially secure long term, then we’re all fucked because everyone else in the world is just a side show or spell trouble.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 12:51 am
In other news, those Menzies conservatives are making light of their marital obligations to right-liberals:

http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2010/09/the-chilling-creed-of-the-radical-libertarians.html#comments

Even I don’t describe Ms Rand with the c-bomb.

THR

3 Sep 10 at 12:52 am
And John if the US is not financially secure long term, then we’re all fucked because everyone else in the world is just a side show or spell trouble.

I don’t know enough about the Tea Party, I was simply fishing for opinions. It will be interesting to see how the GOP handles this.

On Lateline Business the head of Blackrock says it looks increasingly likely a double dip is on the way, especially as a leading growth indicator, which he claimed is very accurate, came in at -10.

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 12:58 am
The astonishing Bush victory in Iraq gets more and more astonishing. The IMF reports that Iraq will have the 12th-fastest-growing economy in the world, and it is expected to grow at a 7 percent annual clip for the next several years. It should have a budget surplus by 2012 – more backable than Wayne Swan.

Oil production is at pre-war levels and growing. Electricity production is 40 per cent higher than in pre-invasion days. There were 800,000 odd phones in Iraq before the invasion. Now there are more than 1.3 million land lines and 20 million mobiles. Before the invasion, fewer than 5000 Iraqis had access to the internet; now 1.7 million are connected. The Economist Intelligence Unit ranks Iraq fourth in the Middle East on political freedom, behind only Israel, Lebanon and Morocco.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 1:09 am
He was talking about the ERCI I think. A lot of people look at that but it’s not infallible.

It’s possible the US enters another recession or it just hobbles around in a slow growth period until 2012 when they get this loon out of the White House.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 1:11 am
Wilkie is not a man of the left, by any means.

Please THR. He was a darling of the left during the Howard years, and he’s an ex-greens candidate.

If he was any more left he’d be Bob Brown’s boyfriend.

Yobbo

3 Sep 10 at 1:14 am
That Menzies house article is hilariously retarded.
Ayn Rand wasn’t a anarcho-capitalist anyway, she refused to even call herself a libertarian.

Greego

3 Sep 10 at 2:48 am
Yes, that was lame of you THR.

Ev630

3 Sep 10 at 6:11 am
So that whole article by the News Weekly DLP hack basically condemend Rand’s system on the basis of
1) some admittedly foolish remarks she made about a serial killer when she was younger of which no trace can be found in her more mature system
2) by conflating her views with those of her more extreme followers

And the LDP helped elect one of these dishonest medieval fuckers to the Senate!

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 7:13 am
Why are you posting this in every thread before fact-checking it Jason?

Yobbo

3 Sep 10 at 8:04 am
Let’s just say i heard this from one of the people involved in the campaign

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 9:01 am
You don’t need to hear it from anyone, you can look for yourself where the DLP preferences came from, and it wasn’t the LDP.

I posted the link in the Senate Reform thread.

Yobbo

3 Sep 10 at 9:19 am
If he was any more left he’d be Bob Brown’s boyfriend.

I don’t think this is true, while he’s got a raft of environmental policy in line with the greens, and is trying to pork barrel his electorate in classic independent fashion and clearly a wowser, his stated economic views are probably slightly to the right of the ALP.

To me it seems likely his politics have tracked Malcolm Frasers.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 9:20 am
No Yobbo you are wrong.

From your link. Count 23. When the Sex party was excluded
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/svic-results.htm

“50,065 (1.76%) votes originally from Liberal Democrats (LDP) distributed to Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia (John MADIGAN) via preference 10. “

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 9:25 am
To me it seems likely his politics have tracked Malcolm Frasers.

Which is to say that he is at home in the current ALP.

dover_beach

3 Sep 10 at 9:25 am
Yes DB, I’m not denying he is overall left wing. Merely that he doesn’t seem to support the economic ideas of greens – ie wants to lower tax rather than raise it, it seems.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 9:27 am
ie wants to lower tax rather than raise it, it seems.

Not sure about that, Steve E. He talks alot about the running-down of services which reads to me, as a rule, as wanting to raise revenue and thus taxes.

dover_beach

3 Sep 10 at 9:32 am
This result is not like 1998 where the coalition won with a decent majority because of its high primary vote. This is more like 1990 when the Coalition both the primary and the 2PP yet didn’t form a government.

But the main thing is that Tony in 8 months has managed to drive the ALP to the far left and electoral oblivion at the next poll. Also I think Tony will also add the noisome Greeens to his trophies when the voters see them in action as part of the government.

Rococo Liberal

3 Sep 10 at 9:40 am
Jason

Being a rabid Ayn Rand supporter is a sign of arrested development.

Rococo Liberal

3 Sep 10 at 9:42 am
Yes. I realise there is a contradiction and no stated way in which to achieve this, yet his stated policies though have tax cuts for business payroll tax etc and say the RSPT was too harsh and the MRRT could do with more work. The greens want both of these to go up no down. So I think (maybe I hope!) it wrong to lump him there.

I’m not saying he’s a small government liberal, but it seems he’s on the right wing (or just past it) of the ALP economically.

Yobbo is right to say he was a darling of the left, but that was mostly because of the whole Iraq war issue. That wasn’t a clear left right issue, even though it became so as the parties line up that way.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 9:43 am
You don’t have to be a rabid Ayn Rand supporter to agree that article was a stupid hack job meant to smear anyone whose right wing politics doesn’t derive from the author’s interpretation of Christianity

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 9:45 am
Any opinions on Bob Katter’s wish list??

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/bob-katters-20point-wish-list-20100902-14rv2.html

No Mining Tax and Carbon tax,

Some of the interesting ones.

3. Address the two chain oligopoly in the Australian food retailing sector. The option of divestment (a maximum market share for any chain of 22.5 per cent only) and/or a maximum mark-up of 100 per cent between the farm gate/factory price and the retail price.

10. Restoration of collective bargaining rights to Australian farmers. Where a majority of farmers in an industry request collective bargaining arrangements, they be provided.

15. Government-provided solar hot water systems and/or other measures to reduce the money problems on our older generation caused by rapidly escalating costs for rates, electricity, insurances, car registration and other similar charges, which, increasingly, they are unable to meet.

18. Address the unfair and artificially high value of the Australian dollar, on which upward pressure is placed by interest rates that are out of step with international benchmarks.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 9:56 am
some of his wishlist is pretty good

7. Provision of title deeds providing ownership of homes, businesses and farms… to indigenous communities.

8. Legislation to ensure that the constitutional right to full compensation for the taking of property by government be extended also to the taking of any property “rights” by government [such as land-clearing by farmers].

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 9:57 am
You’re right Steve. And if you look at NSW the LDP received DLP preferences and are only 6000 votes off winning a seat with 85% counted. This looks like Glenn Druery’s tradeoff to try and get himself a senate seat. Not sure why the LDP would go for it seeing as this guy has basically been willing to run for any party willing to have him over the last 15 years.

Still the fact remains that with Shooters preferences we would have 2 senators and the DLP would have none. And the other thing to consider here is that if Glenn Druery does get up, he’ll be booting out Lee Rhiannon who is the biggest commie in Australia, and I’d rather have a DLP whacko than her.

Yobbo

3 Sep 10 at 10:03 am
Any opinions on Bob Katter’s wish list??

Good: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 but only limited to infrastructure, 11, 17,

Bad: 2, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20

Need more information: 1, 13,

dover_beach

3 Sep 10 at 10:04 am
Yes if the LDP could get the shooters on side they would get in.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 10:06 am
So the LDP are in bed with the Sex Party but off side with the Shooters? That’s completely arse about in Australia.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 10:12 am
IT
Both the Sex Party and Shooters should be natural allies.

The LDP can’t really be blamed for being offside with Shooters as the issue there is personal, not political. There are ex-Shooters in the LDP and some of the Shooters leadership are not exactly best buddies with them.

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 10:16 am
Tasmanians – including the Tasmanian branch of the Australian Medical Association: Wilkie made the wrong call.

Meanwhile, clubs associations have condemned Gillard for lying when she promised them a consultation process re poker machines.

So yet another ‘independent’ claims to be wanting to raise the voice of the local while in fact imperiously, undemocratically riding roughshod over stupid locals.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 10:21 am
WTF is happening in our courts?

We need more Judge Dredds sitting on our benches

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/judge_cinderella_and_the_three_bears_but_im_too_fat_said_the_first/

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 10:33 am
Years of Labor appointees who see criminals as sociological victims.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 10:35 am
You can understand why manadatory sentencing comes about. If the the courts won’t act, then let’s take the judges discretion away from them.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 10:37 am
As I said yesterday, judges are far too concerned about the guilty perp rather than innocent victim. The result is, unfortunately, a diminution of our faith in the law.

dover_beach

3 Sep 10 at 10:45 am
Re DLP and preferences
Glenn Druery *didn’t* get in at the expense of Lee Rhiannon and your whole defence of the preference deal seems to be premised on that.

Instead the DLP guy got in and a Lib senator didn’t.

The bottom line is LDP preferences did play spoiler because they wanted to be agnostic about the two major parties at a time when the choice was pretty clear and play these overly clever preference deals just so this Glenn Druery character can have his day in the sun. It’s time they stopped playing spoiler like this especially when their preferences in effect elected a party that is socialist and socially conservative, the diamestric opposite of LDP views.

Anyway defend all you want all i’m saying is i’m never voting LDP again.

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 11:16 am
Politicians and judges believe they have a responsibility to prevent the unwashed from forcing mandatory sentencing to be made law in their legislative assemblies. Never more than today, Australia is a country governed without the consent of the governed.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 11:16 am
Liberal Mayor of Melbourne wants to regulate busking.

“We’ve got to audition them, simple as that. We’ve got to have a bar where we say, ‘Look, I’m sorry, below that you don’t make it on to the streets’.”

Busker Jessica Paige slaps him down with great intelligence.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 11:36 am
WTF is happening in our courts?

I suspect the law schools have been taken over by left-wing (ie socialist or social justice) ideologues. I base this theory on the behaviour of our judiciary. If it’s true, the ony way through it is to limit judicial discretion.
(not something I’m a huge fan of… look at the injustices caused by three strikes laws, for instance).

daddy dave

3 Sep 10 at 11:44 am
Glenn Druery *didn’t* get in at the expense of Lee Rhiannon and your whole defence of the preference deal seems to be premised on that.

Lee Rhiannon hasn’t won yet Jason.

Yobbo

3 Sep 10 at 11:58 am
Anyway defend all you want all i’m saying is i’m never voting LDP again.

So in effect, you are going to vote for a more socialist candidate, because LDP preferences helped elect a socialist candidate this time around?

Isn’t that cutting off your own nose to spite your face?

You are free to vote below the line, but I guess voting below the line in order to cast a vote for the only real liberal party in the country makes too much sense.

Yobbo

3 Sep 10 at 12:05 pm
Steve Sailer reviews The Tillman Story

http://www.takimag.com/blogs/article/pat_tillman_tragic_american_casualty/

goddamned, look at those jaws

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 12:11 pm
I don’t think that the problem of slack sentencing has anything much to do with the law schools. I think it stems from two things. Firstly,judges come from good homes, so they find it hard to believe that criminals can be as bad as the events make out. So a sort of perverted noblesse oblige applies. The Judge thinks that these people have the same moral compass as me, so they couldn’t reallly be that bad. Secondly there is the general softening of moral attitudes in society. We are now far more exercised about stigmatising middle class people who use the word ‘coon’ than we are about punisihing vicious criminals, because those who write the news are now less likey than ever to be out there taklking to oiks.

Rococo Liberal

3 Sep 10 at 12:18 pm
Yep, RL nails it, particularly with the first comment.

I went to Sydney law school and though I suspect most of my lecturers would have been vaguely left of centre as most academics are, very few could be described as socialist ideologues (that may not be true of Macquarie which went through a Critical Legal Studies phase, I don’t know if it’s still like that). Generally the method of instruction was very much black letter and traditional

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 12:24 pm
RL

I’m not buying that. Judges come from the same homes in the US yet they have no problem in slapping a 10 sentence on some fucker that viciously attacked another person or sticking a death sentence on a cold blooded murdering thug.

You kill someone here and you end up with 5 years? WTF?

The real problem is that we’ve have labor governments that pervert everything fucking thing they touch these days. There isn’t a thing labor touches that doesn’t turn to shit.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 12:26 pm
another catherine deveny story complete with unflattering picture

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/catherine-deveny-takes-new-swipe-at-jealous-age/story-e6frg996-1225913692656

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 12:42 pm
God, she’s a vain, unpleasant person.

steve from brisbane

3 Sep 10 at 12:53 pm
Yobbo – I can see Glen pulling in front of Labor in NSW, but I can’t see how that helps – their preferences will go straight to the greens, surely…

Tim Quilty

3 Sep 10 at 1:06 pm
NYT runs a story on men’s cosmetics. Getting to be big business, it claims, but what an embarrassing lead photo.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/02/fashion/02skin.html?_r=1

Along the same lines, Gruen Transfer this week talking about “manscaping” was very funny, I thought.

steve from brisbane

3 Sep 10 at 1:15 pm
Deveny wrote for The Age for nine years, and was elevated to the newspaper’s opinion page by former editor Andrew Jaspan. Upon his sacking, she said, her first dealing with new editor Ramadge was his reneging on her “handshake agreement” and imposing a 40 per cent cut in her pay rate.

Rancid cow was still overpaid.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 1:21 pm
steve
you frequently point us to the fashion pages of the NYT.

anything you’re not telling us?

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 1:22 pm
It fits in with my imagined interests here, Jason. And besides, the photos are often funny.

steve from brisbane

3 Sep 10 at 1:25 pm
and people read Penthouse for the articles …

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 1:27 pm
I think JC knows more about both men’s and women’s fashion than I do, Jason.

steve from brisbane

3 Sep 10 at 1:33 pm
don’t worry Steve, i like you. After all I have been regularly reading and spruiking your blog,.

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 1:35 pm
Yes, I have learned to not take your comments too much to heart, Jason.

Here’s something else from the NYT on the over medicalising kids issue, which appears to interest people here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/02/business/02kids.html?src=me&ref=homepage

steve from brisbane

3 Sep 10 at 1:42 pm
Tony Blair sincerely regretted introducing a fox hunting ban, yet still went ahead with it:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-31/blair-says-he-sabotaged-his-own-government-s-ban-on-fox-hunting.html

Limey arsehole.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 1:47 pm
We all like you, Steve. You’re just a bit confused, that’s all. Lose the passive aggressive schtich and you’ll be alright.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 1:51 pm
Steve’s blog barely resembles what he posts here. That Steve seems alright.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 1:52 pm
Gee, it’s an outbreak of highly qualified “you’re OK, sort of – ish” – ness here. Is it only JC who I truly, intensely, annoy with incredible ease?

steve from brisbane

3 Sep 10 at 1:57 pm
Stop banging on about the weather and Tony’s plums and she’ll be apples.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 2:00 pm
Tony’s plums will be apples? I’m confused…

Fleeced

3 Sep 10 at 2:19 pm
Is it only JC who I truly, intensely, annoy with incredible ease?

Kind of sums up what I was talking about, Steve.

Might be time to grow up, there’s a good fellow.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 2:49 pm
Started off as a train station on the Rookwood cemetery line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Saints_Church,_Canberra

.

3 Sep 10 at 3:01 pm
High-profile hedge fund manager Paolo Pellegrini is giving his investors back their cash and warning that a ‘violent’ crash will follow the realisation that only government borrowing is propping up markets.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Abandoning-a-treacherous-market-pd20100903-8WSTX?OpenDocument&src=kgb

Pre-weekend Doomsday scenario.

This guy calling it as he sees it, or explaining away his book going belly up ??

Comments from financial markets particpants in the Forum most appreciated ?

Myrddin Seren

3 Sep 10 at 3:27 pm
Looking over Bob Katters twenty proposals, we see that they really are more than twenty. If you cut them all up you find that ninety per cent of them are fine. Some of them are actually pretty excellent.

Further, there is very many of them, that Julia Gillard quite literally cannot deliver. She is so fearfully locked in with the Greens now that she simply cannot deliver Bob Katter what he wants. So that if Bob Katter spoke for all three of the remaining independents, then the coalition would still be the presumed winners.

Take one example of a Bob Katter request. He wants no taxes on Australian-made biofuel. Give him what he wants. There is no real cost to us on that score. As long as they are not subsidised, what is it to us? The industry will retrench if the subsidies are taken off, but without the tax, it will still be there in the background, and in some decades time, it may be a viable niche.

But within the exact same claim he has the idea of mandatory 10% ethanol in our fuels. Well we want Bob onside but we cannot be stupid about it. So clearly Tony will have to tell Bob “no” on that score. But very many of the other projects just amount to doing things that we would get done eventually, some decades hence, and instead bringing them forward, in favour of the regional areas. There simply is not a great deal of harm in that. And Tony ought to go for it. Give Bob ninety per cent of what he wants.

Labour cannot back out of “Wild rivers” now that they are in the body scissors with the Greens. Labour cannot back out of a carbon price. Labour cannot back out the higher company tax for miners. So as triumphant as Labour looks right now, the truth is that they have both hands tied behind their backs.

In fact the claims give off the appearance that Bob Katter has engineered this thing all along. Looks like he was always going to give Tony the win, so long as Tony was willing to crawl across broken glass for it. Tony ought to do it. Tony ought to start crawling. Only one or two of those thirty-odd claims are fiscally, or otherwise, irresponsible. They are not a hard ask at all really.

karl

3 Sep 10 at 3:40 pm
Seren;

“A crash” is conventional wisdom in those circles at the moment.

It could happen, but crashes are inherently unpredictable or rather occur when people least expect it.

The S&P is not expensive at the moment and we coming off 2 of the best quarters in earnings history.

He’s what I think.

The most is really fucking tough at the moment and people like Pelligini are finding it very hard to trade as it doesn’t suit their trading style. If he’s so sure of a crash why doesn’t he just stay in and go short instead of closing down the fund.

If you pick you spots and be careful there’s money to be made in this market.

For instance this time of year a gentleman (me) starts playing rotisserie rig bingo which is betting on the rigs that get keelhauled in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s an earner and helps pay the utilities along with other incidentals.

You can play on both sides of this depending on if you can buy good weather reports from some joker that knows what he’s talking about and is able to forecast shit like hurricane direction, severity and junk like that.

So in sum, no crash because here are far too many people predicting one.

One last thing Corporate America is really cashed up at the moment too.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 3:47 pm
oops The market is really tough..

JC

3 Sep 10 at 3:48 pm
I would think the bond market is more likely to crash than the stockmarket at the moment.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 3:52 pm
I would think the bond market is more likely to crash than the stockmarket at the moment.

I’ve just finished reading a book on Wall Street bond markets. What a shambles. The marks on the bonds are often hopelessly optimistic, the CDO’s appear to have an indeterminate value, and there is a lot of “creative accounting” going on.

According to the article above, the author also notes:

The huge increase in borrowing funds, facilitated by a lazy regulator and the govt’s desire to always see economic growth, was delaying the inevitable.

Wealth distribution continues to concentrate in the US, thereby reducing consumer spending.

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 4:02 pm
Massive bank run in Afghanistan!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/02/AR2010090202266_pf.html

Michael Fisk

3 Sep 10 at 4:04 pm
Steve E

I think I’m going with Credit Suisse’s forecast on the bond market, which is that we’ll see a hit to bonds once we start seeing some decent demand for credit from the private sector and the private and sovereign provide us the unsightly experience of a head on collision. They think it should happen next year.

I’m actually pretty positive on equity markets at the moment. There are tons of Pelligini’s out there preaching gloom and doom.

Corporate America is really cashed up, there are significant M&A deals announced every day, the dollar is pretty cheap, European PMI’s are surprising to the upside. And lastly but not “leastly” the professional investment community is predicting a crash and a lot of them are short which in the past few days has seen them being taking out on stretchers to ER.

The real rally should happen when the Bank of Japan wakes up from its sake induced slumber figures out too late that it really does need to do some QE and begins weakening the Yen. That’s the time to buy with one’s ears pinned back.

Credit Suisse thinks the Keynesian inspired bond crash should start to happen next year.

Another really interesting thing that’s going on is that the Fed is buying securities in the medium term in an attempt to get the banks out of the bond market and back lending again which is why the US bond market is so bid I reckon.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:06 pm
what’s this stuff about an Ethiopian embassy and UN Security Council ambitions.

god Kevin Rudd is such a no-life obsessive power hungry fuck. I really hate the guy.

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 4:09 pm
Krudd as Foreign Minister and another leadership challenge from Mr Charisma, here we come.

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 4:13 pm
Wealth distribution continues to concentrate in the US, thereby reducing consumer spending.

Which is Keynesian leftwing quackery, Johhno. The reason it’s being concentrated is that the real unemployment rate in the US is around 18% meaning that they have a depression, although in this namby pamby age we no longer call it that.

There’s a capital strike going on in the US. Despite great corporate profit is no one is hiring because of that fucking ideological leftwing numbskull in the White House who is the most anti-business president in the Republic’s grand history.

1500 pages of a health care bill no one understands and what burdens it places on hiring. Seriously no one has any freaking clue what it all means

2300 pages of around 250 new regulations on banks that also no one understands and therefore banks won’t lend, as they don’t know the impact on their capital adequacy.

Possible new laws supporting unions as well as doing away with secret ballot on the shop floor.

Potential emissions controls imposed by the EPA through executive fiat.

There’s not a thing this fucking moron has done that could be considered employment friendly except renovate his office while he was away on vacation.

The sooner he’s outta there the faster the economy can grow.

It’s got to the stage that people even hate to hear him talk, babbling that swill he goes on about.

Don’t get me started on hopeychange as I’m liable to crack the screen in anger.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:17 pm
Actually I wasn’t so much talking about the CDO side of things which crashed long ago, but more that the fact that as the US and others borrows like mad the rate they are borrowing at is going down apparently because everyone is scared of the amount of government debt.

Steve Edney

3 Sep 10 at 4:17 pm
A decent prison sentence. Maybe a tad short, but these days it’ll have to do:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/wife-killer-des-campbell-sentenced-to-24-years-jail/story-e6frf7l6-1225913788152

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 4:17 pm
Thanks JC,

You’re across a lot of bases there – and still managing to keep an eye on Catallaxy developments too !

Look forward to you opening a financial blog one day.

Rgds

Myrddin Seren

3 Sep 10 at 4:18 pm
Jason

What’s that about?

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:19 pm
No blog, Seren.. I’m too lazy.

I have three screens in front of me with one devoted to shooting the breeze…. or really attacking leftwingers

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:20 pm
this JC.

It’s a reminder that Mr Charisma is still around

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/embassy-in-ethiopia-a-un-gambit-20100902-14rnv.html

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 4:21 pm
On second thought maybe it’s not so bad. Julia should just make Krudd the Ambassador to Ethiopia

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 4:22 pm
Which is Keynesian leftwing quackery, Johhno. The reason it’s being concentrated is that the real unemployment rate in the US is around 18% meaning that they have a depression, although in this namby pamby age we no longer call it that.

The wealth concentration began in the 70′s JC but I take your point. The author’s argument is that govt borrowing and easy credit hid the real nature of the US economy for far too long, thus the present situation.

Short of a massive austerity program I can’t see how the US can fix its problems. Any ideas?

When the GFC hit the German Finance Minister, in that dour way the Germans do things, stated outright at a press conference that the shit was going to hit the fan, hold on, and no the govt wasn’t going to spend like there’s no tomorrow. No false optimism, no gilding the lily, just upfront about dealing with the pain and moving on. Germans are funny like that, a week ago I read an article which stated the Germans’ pessimism is often contradicted by what actually happens. That reminds me of a British study earlier this year which found that “being grumpy” improved one’s analytical abilities(which goes some way to explaining my analytical abilities!). So I think the Germans are onto something.

The real unemployment rate in Aus, BTW, is about 11%. Govts are good at bullshit.

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 4:27 pm
yea…. Sending him over to Ethiopia isn’t a bad idea… but then on second thoughts he’d probably do more damage to that fragile place.

Send the moron over as our UN ambassador. No one listens to those fuckers and the damage he causes can be sorta spread around rather concentrated in one place.

We’d sorta be taking out an insurance policy by spreading the risk.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:28 pm
Rudd to Ethiopia?

Bloody hell. In no time flat we’d have Bob Geldof organising another Live Aid to help out those poor starving bastards.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 4:31 pm
John

1.Depressed wages in the US at the lower levels has a lot to do with the 12 million illegals competing for jobs at the lower rungs of the ladder. That’s the big elephant in the cupboard.

2. Health insurance premiums have also taken up a large % of total factor income because they haven’t changed that fucked up health care system there. Obama’s makes it worse incidentally because all the moron has done is place the 30 million uninsured into the same system.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:33 pm
Peace and friendship delegation to Iran?

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 4:33 pm
Rudd’s going to end up as foreign minister?

What have we done wrong in the eyes of god to deserve this misery?

And to be honest, as against lying, Steven Smith was actually not bad at all and seems about the only adult in the gang of losers.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:36 pm
Now this is what a red headed PM sought to look like.

I’d vote for her in a sec. not caring for a second how left she was.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ChristinaHendricks

JC

3 Sep 10 at 4:46 pm
not for sure JC.

It’s unclear whether Rudd got his promise in the end but Smith did say he would vacate the foreign ministry for Rudd if it came to that,

jtfsoon

3 Sep 10 at 4:49 pm
Pat Caddell is an interesting character in the US political scene. He always worked for the Democrat’s side and still remains a Dem. However he’s always struck me as eminently sensible and pretty much a middle-of-the-roader.

Here’s what he ahs to say about the fate of the Demolitionists in the mid terms. There’s a truck heading their way.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/245438/caddell-midterm-elections-robert-costa

He also implies that the GOP better not screw this up or their also finished.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 5:13 pm
“Short of a massive austerity program I can’t see how the US can fix its problems. Any ideas?”

Thats like saying: “Short of fixing the problem, how do you fix the problem?”

You had it right the first time. What do you find so terribly wrong with a massive austerity program? The Federal government is spending two trillion more than it takes in. CEO’s are paying them and the people who hired them way too much money. Americans aren’t saving enough. American public service unions have locked in massive ongoing costs for the State Government. The State governments are spending too much on nonsense and not enough on some essential services…. and on and on.

If spending too much is the problem, there is no solution that does not involve spending less.

karl

3 Sep 10 at 5:24 pm
What do you find so terribly wrong with a massive austerity program?

Strange inference. There can be real problems with an austerity program, you can’t just willy nilly cut costs and hope for the best. Of course an austerity program is required but it is also obvious the US govt won’t go there. Hence the question, is there any other solution?

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 5:33 pm
“Wealth distribution continues to concentrate in the US, thereby reducing consumer spending.”

The wealth concentration is a bad thing. But its not bad because people are saving? Whats bad is that people are saving for the first time in a while. And the resources released by this saving, are being wasted in runaway government largesse. Or its going to sustaining a financial industry maybe five times as large as it ought to be.

No doubt you are correct that the move towards greater wealth inequality accelerated in the seventies. There is a standout reason for this. But the downside isn’t to do with not enough consumer spending. The less consumer spending you have the cheaper are the consumer goods. There is no downside to it.

karl

3 Sep 10 at 5:34 pm
“Of course an austerity program is required but it is also obvious the US govt won’t go there. Hence the question, is there any other solution?”

Of course there isn’t. How could there be. Suppose you show up to work drunk all the time? Well clearly the answer is not to drink before work? What is this business about cutting spending and hoping for the best? You cannot keep on spending and hope for any future at all.

If you keep losing your money on the pokies, and you find you have no money all the time, until then next payday, well there is no way around that except to stop blowing your money on poxies. If you keep swallowing hydrogen peroxide, and it takes the lining off your stomach, and you start vomiting, the problem won’t be at an end, or finished, or within a cooee of being dealt with, until the decision comes to stop swallowing all this hydrogen peroxide.

If you keep blacking out after having sex with your wife, your mistress, the girls at the bordello, you donate to a sperm bank, and late at night you keep masturbating and getting blackouts, its not difficult to see that some cutbacks are needed to deal with the blackouts.

You want a fantasy solution keep asking. But you already know the answer. And its not wishful thinking. Its wishful thinking that you can solve a problem without eliminating the cause of that problem.

karl

3 Sep 10 at 5:41 pm
No doubt you are correct that the move towards greater wealth inequality accelerated in the seventies. There is a standout reason for this.

It is also happening in Aus and I suspect Britain. Pareto’s Law. Wealth distribution only becomes an issue when the bottom rungs are starving. If people in general are enjoying a reasonable lifestyle they don’t particularly care about the filthy rich. Nor do I, good luck to ém. But if you bring in an austerity program that creates a large mass of discontents, be afraid, be very afraid.

What is the stand out reason?

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 5:45 pm
The stand out reason is that they cut the last link to gold. The already rich prior to 1971 knew that if they borrowed money to earn a fortune through asset appreciation, sooner or later the crunch would come and they would lose their shirt. Its the fast expansion of money and spending which makes it a paradise for the already rich and leads to everyone elses position to stagnate.

Supposing you had two million dollars in 1970′s money in 1970. If you were young enough you would have had to have been exceptionally lazy or stupid not to be able to turn that into many hundreds of millions in the interim without working too hard. Since you could see the move to the sunbelt. You could just buy and continue buying real estate. If you made a few mistakes currency depreciation would correct it for you.

Now if you are big enough to always have a cheap source of finance coming out of a recession there can be no end to the easy money you are going to make. This is not something we ought to save our anger for until things have gotten so bad that 20% of the people are out of work. Rich people making money is something to be offended by if its just their money making money while they sleep. In the old days people like Edison, George Eastman, and others actually went out and did things to make money.

If its a typical thing that people are making money and not building up wealth-creating businesses whilst they are making their money, then clearly someone else is being exploited. A percentage of the population is being impoverished. At least from the point of view of where they would be if investment was going forward on a more sound basis.

karl

3 Sep 10 at 6:03 pm
Yes birdie, it’s everyone else’s fault but your own.

JC

3 Sep 10 at 6:13 pm
If its a typical thing that people are making money and not building up wealth-creating businesses whilst they are making their money, then clearly someone else is being exploited. A percentage of the population is being impoverished. At least from the point of view of where they would be if investment was going forward on a more sound basis.

Thanks Karl, appreciate the comments.

Your perspective is somewhat scary because I’ve just finished reading “The Great Sell Out”and that is very much about people making money while they sleep. It is all about speculation, not production. Some of the older traders resented the theme that emerged in the 80′s: you trade for yourself not your clients. Hence the recent ruckus that Goldman Sucks was trading against its clients. I suspect that happens quite often. The financial industry is no longer a service industry, it does not exist to benefit society or individuals in any way except incidentally. It is self interest to the max. You previously raised a valid issue: just how big should the financial industry be? It is now big enough to bring down a global economy. If that isn’t too big what is?

Re the gold standard, Terje has a lot to say about that, below is one eg.

http://terjepetersen.wordpress.com/2007/01/02/circulating-legal-tender-gold-coins/

John H.

3 Sep 10 at 6:14 pm
Wealth is not created by bank lending, but by business spending. If the bankers are an intermediary, their total revenues are part of the interest on long-term savings. The potential revenues for such an industry are very small. Particularly in a country with a very low savings rate.

National Income is the same nominal figure as GDP. Supposing the savings rate is 10%. So we save 10% of GDP. What is the interest on the loans, if those loans are only 10% of GDP? But then the finance industry only gets a cut of the interest and not all of it. So the banking industry ought to be really very minimal. It should be a tiny part of the economy. That it is a lot bigger than this tiny presumed amount suggests we are copping huge deadweight loss.

karl

3 Sep 10 at 6:24 pm
The loony Obama administration has subpoenaed Chuck E. Cheese – suspecting Chuck is marketing product to children. Jim Hoft asks, “Ya think?”

In other Obama news, coming hard on the heels of the administration reporting rogue state Arizona to the UN “human rights committee,” Black Panther enabler, terrorist liberator and Clinton pardongate douchebag, Eric Holder, is suing popular Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio.

C.L.

3 Sep 10 at 7:51 pm
They’ve been after Sheriff Joe since Day One.

The news says the suit is because:

“Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona’s Maricopa County is not cooperating in an investigation into whether his department has used racial profiling in sweeps to catch illegal immigrants.”

Uh huh – yeah Joe, better make sure you aren’t concentrating on people who look like they might be from someplace other than the US of A when looking for those lacking credentials. ‘Let’s haul those cheerleaders over boys – they look suspicious !’

BHO – one term, and maybe not even make it to four years before he gets bored and hands over to – Biden !?

Myrddin Seren

3 Sep 10 at 8:35 pm
That Chuck E Cheese subpoeana just flabbergasts me. I know there’s outrage at the trillions of waste and wanton depravity of government spending, but it’s the little things governments do that stick in my craw. At least Africans get to lynch their politicians occasionally.

Infidel Tiger

3 Sep 10 at 8:46 pm
I call this painting “Labour, Julia, And Black Holes” And it symbolises the upward volting of inner personal hypocrisy as a Keynesian regurgitates the phoney Ken Henry black hole meme. Whereas Ken Henry is talking about imaginary black holes, the red ink that he has presided over and encouraged is a real thing and clear for all to see.

http://barnabyisright.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/graph1.jpg

karl

4 Sep 10 at 8:36 am

Catallaxy Files

Open Forum, August 28, 2010

1,127 Responses to 'Open Forum, August 28, 2010'

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