Can Kevin come back?

It must be every deposed pollies wet dream; recalled by a grateful nation. Some have been pushing Simon Crean who has been climbing in the betting market stakes. I agree that he is probably one of the better options going around and the ALP did treat him badly during his stint as leader – but at the time he didn’t inspire any confidence. That’s why he got dumped before the election and was replaced by Mark Latham (good columnist – bad politician).

Today the AFR had an op-ed by John Black on Kevin Rudd making a comeback. (The AFR have, sensibly, taken stuff from behind the pay-wall, but you still can’t cut and paste – so read the whole thing there.) Black reckons that Rudd has timed his hospital stint to avoid having to vote on (either for or against) the carbon tax. Next thing, Black reckons that if Rudd’s health is up to it, he’ll get the votes in the caucus to be PM again because the ALP has no other choice.

That is off the back of Black’s view that the ALP will get completely wiped out in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. That is a possibility. Possum did an election simulation about a month ago and it looks very ugly. He estimates there is a one percent probability that the ALP will win 62 seats – ten less than they currently hold and a 50 percent probability they’ll win 53 seats. He also shows the decline since March – just after Gillard announced the carbon tax.

This chart again shows the implied probability of the ALP winning at least X number of seats – what we find in the comparison is that for any level of probability there’s around a 16 seat contraction in the number of likely elected ALP members. So, for instance, in the March quarter there was around a 60% probability of the ALP winning at least 68 seats – however, by June, the 60% probability level had fallen down to 52 seats. At the 50% threshold level (which gives us our most likely outcome), it fell from 69 seats down to the current 53 seats.

Are the ALP desperate enough to bring back Kev?

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57 Responses to Can Kevin come back?

  1. daddy dave

    The problem for the ALP is if they do anything drastic, there’s a chance they’ll make it even worse. That’s the problem with Crean, for example.

    Many in the caucus apparently hate him, but beyond that, I can’t see how a transition back to Kev would work. How to explain it to the public? What sort of policy changes would occur?
    It would be handing him enormous power, even more than he had before, because once reinstalled, they couldn’t remove him a second time.

  2. JC

    Are the ALP desperate enough to bring back Kev?

    They could. But how would it help win. I reckon as soon as got in there would at least one person resigning from the ALP, thereby forcing an election. Would he win that? Don’t think so.

  3. TerjeP

    The ALP is toxic because of it’s policies and it’s double breach of confidence with the Australian people. Dumping Rudd was survivable but winning an election on the back of the lie about “no carbon tax” has awfully compromised their credibility. Then there is the fact that nobody likes a loser. To fix this will take a long time, most of it probably in the wilderness. Rudd is not part of the solution. Unless you’re egging for the ALP to hurt itself even further.

  4. daddy dave

    You’re right JC, any Labor MP with a score to settle could trigger an instant election. Even so, there’s still a case for bringing him back.

    Rudd might lose, but he’s a good campaigner and might stem the losses. Installing Rudd then going instantly to an election might be an effective loss-minimisation strategy. And the upside is, it wouldn’t involve him actually being leader again for any significant length of time.

  5. LaRouchite

    I know it’s a bit of a muckraking obsession of the Right but that answer is of course, no.

    Rudd never really had strong backings from the Union’s and hitched his wagon to Gillard in order to takeout Beazley. As much as I detest the stranglehold the Right has over the ALP the possibility will forever remain at zero.

    I’m no Gillard fan but the odds on her being overthrown in the next two years is almost the same as Rudd getting back in.

  6. Peter Patton

    If you go back through this blog, I’ve lobg said that Kevin Rudd will be the next PM of this country.

  7. Jc

    I think terje is right. You need to be careful with the polls as it could simply be registering “an anyone but duck bum result”. I also think there is more than a little vindictiveness on the part of the electorate against labor. The polls could be very well telling labor that they hated the way they drove him out…

    That doesn’t mean they will win the election.

    There’s no room for Rudd to even select his own team. He and Shane Wand despise one another , so how would it work if he came back?

    I can see the argument of going to an election. But the electorate may not play the game of fool me once one more time.

    They’re fucked and don’t have any more cards to play.

    25 years in opposition should see them through.

  8. Myrddin Seren

    Oh – the irony is positively Shakespearian.

    KRudd was put to the sword after Big Bill Ludwig – ALP king in Qld and certainly a national ALP supremo – gave Ruddie the thumbs down.

    Big Bill is now staring down the barrel of either making nice with Kevni and swallowing one of Ruddie’s rancid turd sandwiches;

    or potentially finding himself after the next election trying to give orders to the last remaining Qld federal MP – the Hon K. Rudd !!

    Oh Bill – as ye soweth, so shall ye reapeth !!

  9. JC

    I’m no Gillard fan

    LOl Lyndon.. who do you think gives a rats arse whether you’re a Duck bum fan or not?

    Why do nearly all of you retarded lefties frequently begin a premise with you consider important? I’m genuinely interested in getting an answer.

  10. LaRouchite

    JC, You won’t be getting a response to that from me until you start acting like an adult. Your immature absuive nature isn’t conducive to discussing things like a rational person on the internet.

  11. Jim Rose

    DD, you are right.

    Rudd is hanging around like a bad smell. this shows his terminal bad judgment. He thinks he might be recycled.

    Howard made a come back, but that was years later when he had grown as a politician.

  12. JC

    LOl Lyndon. It wasn’t meant to elicit a response, rather it show what a ridiculous twit you are.

    Who cares if you are fan or not, you moron.

    Go back to Crikey and LP and get yourselves in a lather over da murdoch.

  13. Fisky

    53 seats sounds about right. That’s a decent 44-seat majority for Abbott. Actually, Labor deserve no seats at all, and ideally the Constitution could be amended to stop them from ever contesting any seats.

  14. Token

    Goodness Crean, though he is a competent politician, he has no ability to communicate, and the endless whining politics of envy.

  15. JC

    Actually, Labor deserve no seats at all, and ideally the Constitution could be amended to stop them from ever contesting any seats

    You wanna ban the Fisk? Why so?

  16. daddy dave

    They’re in a trap of their own making. There’s no way out. What are their options?
    1. Stick with gillard. Since Gillard is (a) incompetent; (b) a terrible salesman for her own policies and (c) has atrocious ideas for policy and (d) can’t implement them, I’d say sticking with Gillard leads to utter ruin.

    2. Go back to Rudd. This won’t work because he has too many enemies, it would involve eating too much humble pie, and would probably trigger an election.

    3. Go to a third force such as Crean, Shorten. This is even worse, as it gives the impression of a revolving door of leaders, hence having no true leadership at all. This wouldn’t be just ruin: it would be oblivion.

    4. Turnbull. See (3)

    5. Go to an election NOW. Gillard can say “Guys you’re right, I need a mandate. Let’s do this thing.”
    This is their best option. They’d lose, but they wouldn’t be reduced to a rump. All the other options are rump-making.

  17. MarkL of Canberra

    Theya re simply screwed – and they did it all to themselves.

    Look at what the electorate sees:

    – took a booming economy with surpluses and no debt, and wiped their arse with it.
    – after squandering half a generation of wealth generation, running up the biggest debts in Australian history and turning a $22Bn surplus into a $50Bn deficit, think ‘more taxes’ is the answer.
    – blatantly lie to the electorate.
    – patronise the electorate
    – after being handed their heads on a plate by the electorate (a real ‘get wise you retards’ moment), decide to let the Greens run the country when they did not have to so they can hang on to power.
    – turn everything they touch into purest excrement
    – think that the answer to spin and waste is… more waste, with extra spin!

    Who listens to them now? Seriously, talk to a few tradies and brickies. Should be pro-ALP.

    Not on your nellie they aren’t. They might swallow MSM guff about Abbott but they’ll vote against the Green/ALP coalition because it’s costing them their jobs.

    I can’t now even count the numbers of my new neighbours and contacts who I have converted from ALP voters to Abbott supporters.

    Was down at Kirra beach a while back with a mate. Said ‘watch this’. Turned to four blokes talking about Abbott

    ‘dunno, Gillard sucks, but that bloke? He’s a religious nut or something??’

    Said ‘fellas, check out all the hands on stuff he’s done’

    ‘What hands on stuff?’

    ‘he was the deputy, I think, in his local Volunteer Bush Fire brigade, and does a hell of a lot of work through his local surf club. Runs ironmans and has helped organise sporting stuff, also spends a week or two each year out bush working with aboriginal kids. Got three daughters too.’

    ‘bullshit, we’d have heard of that’

    break out laptop, call up wiki.

    ‘sh*t, look at that! How come the tellie never says that?’

    ‘What makes you think the journalists want you to know about it?’

    thoughtful silence

    ‘I met him once, years back when I lived in Ruddocks electorate in Sydney. He was at the Chinese Moon festival in Ruddock’s electorate with with his kids. In trakky daks. I liked Hawkie, he was smart – a Rhodes Scholar. Abbot’s smart too, another Rhodes scholar like Hawkie’

    ‘Sh*t, he’s a real bloke then, not just another f**king union hack!’

    ‘yeah, amazing what bullsh*t the media pulls, isn’t it?’

    The following conversation was very interesting. Those blokes won’t be voting for the red ranga ratbag any time soon – their words, not mine.

    Mk50
    brisbane

  18. MarkL of Canberra

    PIMF. Kirra Beach Surf Club

  19. Endofdays

    No, he cant come back. He was a disaster and was trending to an electoral defeat when they first got rid of him.

    The ALP have totally screwed themselves. Regardless of who takes over from Gillard, the coalition will win the next election. Sadly we are saddled with this onerous govt for another 2 years save for an act of mercy from a member of the govt or by an act of God.

    @Markl; agree totally. If the media actually reported this stuff it would be a major eye opener for many people. I have had many similar conversations as you.

  20. Jim Rose

    dd,

    the ALP is like the libs in the dyinmg days of howard.

    dumping him is as bad is keeping him and costello was his natural heir.

    Gillard has no one waiting in the wings who is not either a recycle or a premature promotion.

  21. Infidel Tiger

    dd,

    the ALP is like the libs in the dyinmg days of howard.

    No, the ALP is more like Ceausescu standing on the balcony admiring the view and all the happy citizens cheering their policies.

  22. Fleeced

    They can’t dump Gillard for Rudd, or anyone else. Gillard would resign and the byelection would be a circus. Rudd stayed because he wanted the foreign ministry, which fit with his other ambitions. What could they offer Gillard? The only way I could see them doing it, is for someone fresh to lead them to an election. That would be about shoring up against potential losses rather than winning.

    Aside from all that, the only two people who I think are stupid enough to want the job if it were offered are Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.

    *shudder*

    Prime Minister Swan… doesn’t bear thinking about.

  23. twostix

    They’re in a trap of their own making. There’s no way out. What are their options?
    1. Stick with gillard. Since Gillard is (a) incompetent; (b) a terrible salesman for her own policies and (c) has atrocious ideas for policy and (d) can’t implement them, I’d say sticking with Gillard leads to utter ruin.

    I don’t think Gillard’s incompetent. She’s working very hard to implement her own vision, which incidentally isn’t The Labor Partys vision. Realistically she’s done a fine job of that, look at what she’s accomplished in a year, two new taxes, one of the biggest wealth redistributions in the countries history, a huge expansion of government and now she’s moving onto changing the media landscape. She might destroy the Labor party, but she’s not a Labor woman, it’s always been just a vehicle for her, she’d fit right in with the Greens.

    She’s trying to ram a maggot infested sausage down Australia’s neck, which is no small feat in itself. She’s praying that the country will keep at least some of it down and forever be changed more towards her vision.

    Gillard is playing from the same book as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Next step will be a flood of immigration from shitty countries and probably adoption of some sort of radical “human rights” charter.

  24. Viva

    The timing of the last election got us into this mess.

    At that stage the voters didn’t distrust Gillard enough and didn’t trust Abbott enough.

    Never mind the ALP, Kevin’s return would plunge us all into an even deeper circle of hell. Remember all that manic weirdness.

  25. twostix

    Your immature absuive nature isn’t conducive to discussing things like a rational person on the internet.

    You must be new to this interweb thingy.

  26. Fleeced

    Next step will be a flood of immigration from shitty countries and probably adoption of some sort of radical “human rights” charter.

    We’re supposed to be having a referendum at some point about including some waffle about aboriginals in the constitutional preamble. The Libs suggested something similar at one point – not sure if they still support it.

  27. Jim Rose

    Gillard is not playing from the same book as Tony Blair.

    Blair won and was re-elected all with landslides.

    Blair was very good at making sure his policies were the popular policies or could be sold such as going to war.

    On going to war, people may have not liked his wars, but Blair was respected for his strength.

    Keating’s come back in 1993 was built on a grudging respect of the public. he had the ticker to be PM.

  28. twostix

    Actually, Labor deserve no seats at all,

    If there’s not one single person in the party who believes in the party enough to force this incredible vandalism of the country and of the Labor Party to end before it really does some damage, then the party and the people in it will get exactly what they deserve at the next election.

    How embarrassing it is for the left though, especially after the Hubris of 2008.

    Australian left, meet Nemesis.

  29. AndrewL

    Turnbull is more likely to be Coalition leader at the next election than Rudd to be Labor leader. He is positioning himself for a tilt for when the electorate realise Abbott can’t deliver on his promise to tear down everything Labor.

  30. Fleeced

    Keating’s come back in 1993 was built on a grudging respect of the public.

    It was built more on fear of GST and having a gibbering idiot (Hewson) as PM.

  31. Fleeced

    Tunrnbull’s dreaming if he thinks he has a shot at taking leadership before next election.

  32. Viva

    Amazing. As far back as Feb 2010 Bob Ellis was demanding that Gillard be sacked and deselected. And in August 2010 one respondent to his article commented:

    “Do I think Julia G is a liar? You bet. Well she seems to be getting worse and worse as the election draws on. It is a disgrace. The future leader of our country is becoming a really bad liar.”

    Nobody then realised just how bad.

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/34224.html

  33. JC

    He is positioning himself for a tilt for when the electorate realise Abbott can’t deliver on his promise to tear down everything Labor.

    Like what? The Carbon Tax? yes he will. If he doesn’t have a majority int he senate to destroy it, he’ll simply ignore it.

    The NBN is trickier, but people will understand why.

    Cutting spending? I think they’ll go for it with a meat ax.

    What’s really not to like, AndrewL?

  34. Infidel Tiger

    Turnbull is more likely to be Coalition leader at the next election than Rudd to be Labor leader. He is positioning himself for a tilt for when the electorate realise Abbott can’t deliver on his promise to tear down everything Labor.

    It’s this sort of wishful thinking that allows lefties to get through the night without a change of sheets.

    It’s over, relax your bladder sweetheart.

  35. Infidel Tiger

    Keating’s come back in 1993 was built on a grudging respect of the public. he had the ticker to be PM.

    That and the fact that Hewson was a Rudd level psycho.

  36. twostix

    Blair won and was re-elected all with landslides.

    Tony Blair was a media manipulator and is a proud lifelong socialist. Just because he supported the War On Terror which kept him elected, and that the conservatives where utterly unelectable for a decade, doesn’t mean he’s not true to his roots.

    What he and Brown, and then Brown did to the the UK can only be described as revolutionary. The rapid expansion of government, multitudes of new laws, the incredible spending of the country into the verge of bankruptcy.

    Gillard is of the same ideology and she’s just doing here what was done in her home country.

    This is a vastly different country to the mother country though, and very different times to 1997 and 2001, as she’s finding out.

  37. AndrewL

    Turnbull is positioning himself as the moderate option already. In twelve months Abbott’s numbers may not be as strong. Labor seem to be getting down to the rusted on support; people that just won’t stomach voting conservative. If Abbot can’t keep those numbers going there will be a move by Turnbull, he isn’t hanging around to be Minister for renaming the NBN.

    As the Essential poll shows, even with such low Labor support, he has currency with Labor voters. I could see a lot of backbenchers in marginal seats being more comfortable with Malcolm winning the swing voters.

  38. twostix

    Amazing. As far back as Feb 2010 Bob Ellis was demanding that Gillard be sacked and deselected. And in August 2010 one respondent to his article commented:

    From that article:

    In this, she mightily erred. Teachers are the best, most selfless people there are (apart from, possibly, nurses and AIDS workers) with the most important job there is, of saving the souls of children and building out of rough materials civilised human beings – on, as a rule, half a taxi driver’s income. They spread, as a rule, Labor’s humanist values and hand out Labor leaflets on election day. And Julia Gillard has just attacked the lot of them with this fool scheme, and shamed the lot of them, unjustly.

    Never has anybody made the case so perfectly for the abolition of State Education.

    Thanks Bob Ellis!

  39. twostix

    Turnbull is positioning himself as the moderate option already. In twelve months Abbott’s numbers may not be as strong. Labor seem to be getting down to the rusted on support; people that just won’t stomach voting conservative. If Abbot can’t keep those numbers going there will be a move by Turnbull, he isn’t hanging around to be Minister for renaming the NBN.

    I can’t see Turnbull ever leading the Libs again.

    Labor on the other hand….

  40. AndrewL

    It’s this sort of wishful thinking that allows lefties to get through the night without a change of sheets.

    Unfortunately for Tony it is two years he has to get through. We’ll see.

    Rudd is a pipedream though, the Independents did the deal with Gillard. Labor are tied to her.

  41. JC

    Turnbull is positioning himself as the moderate option already.

    Ummm yea okay, whatev. Like you mean moderately labor, right? That’s just what the punters want, another labor party.

    In twelve months Abbott’s numbers may not be as strong.

    Or they can also be stronger. Have you thought of that? You dudes on the other side always think shit like this comes back. It may not, Doofus

    Labor seem to be getting down to the rusted on support; people that just won’t stomach voting conservative

    Don’t worry, at the rate duck bum is going more will. I predict a primary vote less than NSW Lab. I never thought it possible but I think it will happen.

    If Abbot can’t keep those numbers going there will be a move by Turnbull, he isn’t hanging around to be Minister for renaming the NBN.

    No one on the lib side really cares if he stays or goes by all appearances and he will never be head of the party again.

    He could be treasurer but never the leader.

    As the Essential poll shows, even with such low Labor support, he has currency with Labor voters.

    Honestly, who on the right gives a flying fuck if labor party supporters like him. It’s not as though the Libs are a seat short of winning at the next election.

    You fuckers just keep having these dreams that it won’t be bad if Turnbull is leader because he’s like a labor right kinda guy.

    That’s the soft sorta dream you have before the real fucking nightmare dude. Wake up, before you scare yourself shitless.

    I could see a lot of backbenchers in marginal seats being more comfortable with Malcolm winning the swing voters.

    I’m sure you could.

    look dude, the next lib government majority will be massive and the only real debate will be in the party room and the 15 sad looking labor survivors won’t be doing much.

    Get used to it.

  42. Viva

    Unfortunately for Tony it is two years he has to get through. We’ll see.

    Yes – we certainly will.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/dpp-urged-to-act-against-thomson-20110803-1ibrq.html

  43. JC

    You gotta laugh watching sad labor tragics like AndyL going through all these mental contortions as they face oblivion.

    1. It’s two years away and labor can always make it back because julia is such a great campaigner and understands the electorate.

    2. It’s two years away and the punters will really get to see what Tony is like and the more they see of him the less they like.

    3. As a labor supporter I don’t really mind Turnbull.

    4. Rudd should be leader and he will turn things around and make it better.

    I love watching this mass squirming going on.

    Look fuckers, labor is not coming back. It’s inf act goign to get worse. Abbott is the next PM and it will be a full blown lib government with all the accoutrements, as the frogs say. So get used to it, see the analyst and try to get a good pill that will work.

  44. JC

    Oh i forgot.

    It’s 2 years away and the public will learn to love the carbon tax and other taxes they will take out of the hat at the summit.

  45. Labor lost blue collar workers in WA and QLD for a generation thanks to its mining tax and carbon tax head explosions. Their problems are bigger than who is leader.

  46. White genocide, wealth redistribution on a Stalinist scale, outright fraud and oppression, mentally deficient people like Swan holding high office and the litany of hate which is the legacy of the gillard junta is not a set of events that Australia will ignore or shrug off.

    Add to this the exterminative illegal immigration flood the ALP is hellbent on unleashing and we will be lucky if all we undergo is a historic election.

    Gillard and her fellow communists (she is a documented communist, fellows, let’s not kid around) have the fight of their lives on their hands.

    They aren’t up to the task. Thank the Lord.

  47. Fisky

    There is absolutely no chance of a Turnbull resurrection. None. He tried, failed catastrophically, and his only constituency are Hi-Allanists who will never vote Liberal anyway. What was his average 2PP? About 42-58. A miserable effort. He’s unpopular, arrogant and mostly useless.

  48. perturbed

    They can’t possibly be, surely. Viva hit the nail on the head with their comment on Rudd’s weirdness. That, and the fact that polls were going downhill as badly as they are now. Gillard’s introduction bought Labor just enough of a reprieve to get them over the line with the help of the ecoloonies and the Independents, and that only thanks to the Libs’ terrible blunder of directing preferences to Adam Bandt. They won’t do that again.

    Unless they shift Penny Wong to a safe lower house Labor seat (if there is such a thing any more) and go for the left-wing PC kudos of having the first Asian Lesbian Prime Minister of Australia (which I strongly suspect the public would see through for a cunning stunt), I don’t see any replacement buying them enough electoral grace to stagger back into contention. And as a former Climate Change minister, I think she’d be electoral poison.

    All we can hope, for the good of the country, is that what little talent is left in the ALP doesn’t get cleaned away with the dross. I want to see these useless idiots buried, yes, but too much of a landslide doesn’t make for a healthy Parliament.

  49. benson

    too much of a landslide doesn’t make for a healthy Parliament.

    You can never be too rich, too thin, or have too few Labor MPs.

  50. Token

    All we can hope, for the good of the country, is that what little talent is left in the ALP doesn’t get cleaned away with the dross. I want to see these useless idiots buried, yes, but too much of a landslide doesn’t make for a healthy Parliament.

    I don’t agree, it all depends on the talent and courage of the leader (and their hubris), and the need for reform.

    A landslide can bring in some great local members in unexpected place that tend their electorate well. As the Hawke & Howard governments showed, such a back bench is the shield a leader needs to enable real reform.

    I think after the experience of Howard in ’96 & ’98 & Rudd/Gillard in ’07 & ’10 I expect any leader with ticker will get straight into the hard reform, as you can expect the wave that swept them into power to be gone by the time the next election comes around.

  51. perturbed

    Token:

    I see what you mean about landslides opening the door for new talent (which every political party needs). I think Abbott’s going to want a fairly big buffer for his first term, because there’s going to be a lot of pain before Australia’s out of the woods and we can rely on there being something of a backlash (especially if he proposes things like nuclear energy).

    There’s a whole lot of people I want to see out at this next election – Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Wong (if her Senate seat is up for grabs) and Garrett to name just a few – but if all Labor has is a desultory rump on one end of the benches and if we lose too many long-serving Labor MPs who preceded this whole Rudd-Gillard shemozzle, the Abbott government can’t be called effectively on its mistakes (and it WILL make them).

    Moreover, the Labor Party will lose any memory of what it was like to be in (something approaching) effective government. The Hawke-Keating years ended badly, but for all the bad Labor did, it at least seemed (through the filter of time) to have some sort of idea about how to govern a nation. This lot has no clue.

  52. Token

    Perturbed: Don’t mistake what I am saying, I’m a big fan of competition, we all need a competent opposition to keep governments on their toes, and to avoid them getting arrogant. They need to pick up bone headed mistakes.

    I lived in Vic in the Jeff years and saw the reform that was put in place. They should’ve aced the ’98 election, but arrogance crept in, and due to this Bracks was able to slink in with the help of country independents. If Jeff wouldn’t have been so arrogant and pitched some programs to the country voters around Mildura and East Gippsland he would’ve never lost government.

    PS: I believe Abbott will go nuclear as it is the only way I can see Australia meeting those bullshit targets and maintain energy security.

  53. Nato

    Can Kevin come back? I hope so.

    Not even JWH-lite from ’07 can repair what the ALP has done to itself nationally. Another knifing will probably see them crash in their least bad poll state, Vic, which I read currently as standing by the local. Better a terrible Vic PM than the best ever if he/she is from Sydney.

    My question is whether the mexicans would swing right or left.

    JC: “Abbott is the next PM and it will be a full blown lib government with all the accoutrements” (most recent overstatement)

    The Greens will still have the Senate BOP. I don’t see the Senate swinging enough to change that. Either the ALP gets behind “bipartisanship” or it will be a Carbon Tax Repealling double-dissolution before your vision is realized.

  54. The ALP as it was is gone. Its long-exiled communists have come back, taken power, and destroyed its base. That isn’t something that it is going to be able to just laugh off and hit a reset button about. It’s a new culture, composed of bureaucrats, communists, sociopaths and union grifters of an almost paleolithic type.

    Perpetual opposition could easily be their reality post-election.

  55. Jim Rose

    nato,

    the attitude of the ALP to a double dissolution will be the key.

    once trashed, they will not want another trashing.

    a small face saving comprimise will see them through to a carbon tax repeal.

  56. daddy dave

    a small face saving comprimise will see them through to a carbon tax repeal

    That won’t happen. Too much loss of face.

  57. daddy dave

    if we lose too many long-serving Labor MPs who preceded this whole Rudd-Gillard shemozzle, the Abbott government can’t be called effectively on its mistakes (and it WILL make them).

    I’m having trouble caring too much about that scenario.
    Gillard’s got a knife edge majority and it doesn’t seem to be leading to good governance. Sure, she’ getting called on her mistakes but she’s still making them.

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