It must be every deposed pollies wet dream; recalled by a grateful nation. Some have been pushing Simon Crean who has been climbing in the betting market stakes. I agree that he is probably one of the better options going around and the ALP did treat him badly during his stint as leader – but at the time he didn’t inspire any confidence. That’s why he got dumped before the election and was replaced by Mark Latham (good columnist – bad politician).
Today the AFR had an op-ed by John Black on Kevin Rudd making a comeback. (The AFR have, sensibly, taken stuff from behind the pay-wall, but you still can’t cut and paste – so read the whole thing there.) Black reckons that Rudd has timed his hospital stint to avoid having to vote on (either for or against) the carbon tax. Next thing, Black reckons that if Rudd’s health is up to it, he’ll get the votes in the caucus to be PM again because the ALP has no other choice.
That is off the back of Black’s view that the ALP will get completely wiped out in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. That is a possibility. Possum did an election simulation about a month ago and it looks very ugly. He estimates there is a one percent probability that the ALP will win 62 seats – ten less than they currently hold and a 50 percent probability they’ll win 53 seats. He also shows the decline since March – just after Gillard announced the carbon tax.
This chart again shows the implied probability of the ALP winning at least X number of seats – what we find in the comparison is that for any level of probability there’s around a 16 seat contraction in the number of likely elected ALP members. So, for instance, in the March quarter there was around a 60% probability of the ALP winning at least 68 seats – however, by June, the 60% probability level had fallen down to 52 seats. At the 50% threshold level (which gives us our most likely outcome), it fell from 69 seats down to the current 53 seats.
Are the ALP desperate enough to bring back Kev?