Bill Leak’s cartoon in The Aus today is a ripper, with own Jools trying to flog Austalian CO2 at $23 a tonne, but with no takers, while the Chinese trader is offering cans at just $1.55, and a long queue of customers. And Bob Brown’s suggestion to Jools – what about rising the price?
And now comes the analysis of Deutsche Bank in relation to European carbon prices:
The analysis on European Emissions credits gives a forecast SURPLUS of 566Mt from now to 2020 and prices remaining near flat at € 10/t for the medium term.
So that would be about $A12 to $A13 per tonne, depending on how low the Euro goes.
And note that the proposed Chinese carbon tax is narrow and will be applied to non-CO2 emissions in the first instance.
(It is interesting that much of the commentary is interpreting the Chinese announcement as an attempt on their part to sucker in other countries so they can continue to flog green-related products, subsidised by the taxpayers of these countries. But it hard to see the US, Canada, India, etc. falling for this trick.)
There is now little doubt that Australia will be leading the world – which for a carbon intensive economy, makes no sense at all.