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Betting market update

51 comments

Smith seems to be doing well.

(source: Centrebet 20 February 2012 at 14:50)

Written by Sinclair Davidson

February 20th, 2012 at 2:50 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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51 Responses to 'Betting market update'

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  1. iasbet also has Rudd as favourite at 1.90 v Gillard at 2.10

    I couldn’t resist a bit a action on Shorten at 15.00
    (although I’d take as little as 4.00 on him as ALP leader for election after next)

    Le Chiffre

    20 Feb 12 at 3:09 pm

  2. Look at that list of union hacks and ex student politicians that are putting their hands up as Dear Leader. Impressive isn’t it?

    The only one you would hire to run anything more than a lolly shop is “Any Other Candidate”.

    Pedro the Ignorant

    20 Feb 12 at 3:19 pm

  3. Drongo would start odds on against this field of glue sticks and Pal tin fillers.

    Infidel Tiger

    20 Feb 12 at 3:22 pm

  4. Geez Swandive and Nanny Roxon aren’t looking good. Normally Treasurers and A-G’s (competent ones at least) are first and second in line for succession planning.

    What’s the odds for Bob Brown?

    papachango

    20 Feb 12 at 3:27 pm

  5. What’s the odds for Bob Brown?

    Pretty good I’d say. If they can’t find the right candidate in the ALP, Bob could be the compromise one and become PM. Imagine.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 3:38 pm

  6. Lets all chip in and throw some money on Kate Ellis… if her odds shorten enough, she might at least get promoted by the new leader.

    Fleeced

    20 Feb 12 at 3:38 pm

  7. Fair enough.’
    How much you reckon it would take to get the odds down to respectable levels. I’m in.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 3:41 pm

  8. oops

    I’m in on one condition. If she wins, she has to get around as PM wearing outfits like this and we also want car door shots when she’s getting in and out of Commonwealth 1.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 3:43 pm

  9. Yeah, she’s gotta dress the part.

    Fleeced

    20 Feb 12 at 3:50 pm

  10. JC,

    I loved Bolt’s quip about that photo:

    “Thick head flaunts thin body to help fat bottomed girls.”

    Anyhoo, gotta rush, I’m off to put my house on albansleazey…

    Rabz

    20 Feb 12 at 3:51 pm

  11. JC, I like the photo of the lady in a very short skirt which was linked to “outfits like this”, but I am horrified at the thought of Julia Gillards fat arse in such a short dress. Could you find a photo of a burkka for Julia.

    AD

    20 Feb 12 at 3:52 pm

  12. But Fleeced… maybe wouldn’t should be looking at this a whole different way.. George Costanza style.

    Instead of aiming really high in terms of trying to find the best candidate for the big job and become sorely disappointed, the Liars Party should go the reverse.

    Aim their sights sights really low and then be pleasantly surprised at the result.

    Lets be brutally honest, there’s no way in the world Kate would have performed worse than the slapper and in all likelihood done a miles better job…. and there’s the added Kate factor too.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 3:55 pm

  13. Stop it AD. The ideas your spreading are truly horrifying.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 3:57 pm

  14. and there’s the added Kate factor too.

    Yes, she doesn’t sound like a crow that’s swallowed a foghorn.

    Gab

    20 Feb 12 at 3:59 pm

  15. Kate is supposedly as dumb as dog shit. Needs a minder to tell her to keep breathing as well as everything else.

    Might make a good PM. The less they do, the better off we are.

    DavidLeyonhjelm

    20 Feb 12 at 4:07 pm

  16. Yep. Strong fiscal conservative treasurer, and a likable PM who mingles with the people, and does what they’re told. She may just be the best candidate for the job.

    Fleeced

    20 Feb 12 at 4:10 pm

  17. JC – if you’re going to aim really low so that the only way is up, how about Tanya Pleberseck or Craig Thompson?

    papachango

    20 Feb 12 at 4:17 pm

  18. “Any other candidate” is now $6.00!!! That means the the next member of Mensa, Tanya Plibersek is more chance than a week ago???
    Oh struth. Say it isn’t so!!

    GrazingGoat66

    20 Feb 12 at 4:18 pm

  19. Strong fiscal conservative treasurer

    who might that be? Not Swandive. I know Rudd said he was but he’s not.

    papachango

    20 Feb 12 at 4:19 pm

  20. Now now, GrazingGoat66 – she’s health minister so she must be, like, real smart ‘n stuff, ya know?

    papachango

    20 Feb 12 at 4:21 pm

  21. The only problem – MP Kate Ellis lacks naked ambition

    Mother Hubbard's Dog

    20 Feb 12 at 4:25 pm

  22. ‘ANY CANDIDATE NOT LISTED’ would have to be Crean

    chuck

    20 Feb 12 at 4:26 pm

  23. who might that be? Not Swandive. I know Rudd said he was but he’s not.

    Yes, I was struggling to think of who they would use for that role… but at leaset Kate completes half the puzzle.

    Fleeced

    20 Feb 12 at 4:28 pm

  24. JC – if you’re going to aim really low so that the only way is up, how about Tanya Pleberseck or Craig Thompson?

    Dude, I said aim low. Not under freaking rocks.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 4:31 pm

  25. “I couldn’t resist a bit a action on Shorten at 15.00″

    No way Le Chiffre! Shorten is too smart and his ego too large to lead the ALP to the worst defeat in Australian political history.

    It can only be Gillard or Craig Thompson, the latter because he’s history anyway and he might as well go for a bit more padding in his pension for the gig, albeit short.

    Anne

    20 Feb 12 at 4:31 pm

  26. “I couldn’t resist a bit a action on Shorten at 15.00″

    Shortening odds for Shorten has a certain ring to it.

    He’s one of the most irritating members of the ALP ant-colony. He ends every sentence in the tone of a question. High pitched and really annoying.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 4:33 pm

  27. He’s one of the most irritating members of the ALP ant-colony. He ends every sentence in the tone of a question.

    Hadn’t noticed – but that seems a common Australianism.

    Funnily enough, I remember an interview with that Gillard impersenator, and she pointed out that Julia goes the other way – going down in tone – even if asking a question. It’s supposedly a learned habit to convey authority.

    Fleeced

    20 Feb 12 at 4:38 pm

  28. What the ALP needs is to find someone who is both dumb and with an enormous ego. I know – Rob Oakeshott.

    Mother Hubbard's Dog

    20 Feb 12 at 4:40 pm

  29. lol… I’m surprised Robbie hasn’t suggested an independent Prime Minister.

    Fleeced

    20 Feb 12 at 4:42 pm

  30. You’ll never narrow the field under that criteria, Dog.

    Gab

    20 Feb 12 at 4:42 pm

  31. throw some money on Kate Ellis… if her odds shorten enough

    Along with her hemline, heh heh heh heh…

    ar

    20 Feb 12 at 4:49 pm

  32. Annabel Crabb said today perhaps it was not the time for Julia to be standing next to someone called Gonski. The ALP might feel they’re all gonski now.

    blogstrop

    20 Feb 12 at 4:51 pm

  33. Well if anyone except Rudd is chosen, the LP can expect trouble to continue
    It would be worse if he was on the backbench (even if he were demoted)
    The LP can’t sack him because he’s an elected member
    He’ll continue to bother whoever is leader
    Because of his perceived popularity in Queensland
    (Personally I live in Qld and I haven’t seen any of this perceived popularity but with Rudd’s expertise I have no doubt he can manufacture one (if only for the moment)
    So the LP is between a stone and a hard place

    and thank God there’s only 12 months or so till an election

    val majkus

    20 Feb 12 at 4:58 pm

  34. I’ve noticed a number of lay commentators saying today that if Gillard had any honesty she would call an election
    That’s not going to happen – everyone including the Greens and Independents in the House of Reps are too keen on retaining their wages for the course of this current Parliament
    All I can say is Australians, wake up!!!! Become involved!!!!

    val majkus

    20 Feb 12 at 5:01 pm

  35. thank God there’s only 12 months or so till an election

    gonna be a loooong 12 months though

    papachango

    20 Feb 12 at 5:04 pm

  36. That market is expressed in cents per kilo (carcass weight, head and skin off, guts out).

    Pickles

    20 Feb 12 at 5:12 pm

  37. 12 months or so till an election

    The scenarios are numerous – most pro laybore types are adamant that there’s at least 18 months as the last election was 25 August 2010.

    Barring ruff regaining the leadership, which would inevitably mean a lower house election straight away.

    Somehow you get the feeling that juliar is ‘Goneski’ regardless.

    But honestly, how insane/desperate would laybore have to be to go back to ruff?

    Rabz

    20 Feb 12 at 5:35 pm

  38. Rabz; very insane/desperate and they are

    val majkus

    20 Feb 12 at 5:48 pm

  39. Somehow you get the feeling that juliar is ‘Goneski’ regardless.

    I have this unpleasant lower intestinal feeling that she might just gather enough self interested party members to her cause and go on to the end.
    Similarly, I have this vague feeling of dread that we won’t be seeing Blight perp walked outside Holland Park Magis’ after March.

    lotocoti

    20 Feb 12 at 7:08 pm

  40. A giant vote of confidence in the Treasurer. Even someone as grossly deficient as Wayne Swan should take offence at those odds.

    H B Bear

    20 Feb 12 at 7:32 pm

  41. Even someone as grossly deficient as Wayne Swan should take offence at those odds.

    Fortunately for his pride, he has no idea what those numbers mean.

    Infidel Tiger

    20 Feb 12 at 7:43 pm

  42. “ANY CANDIDATE NOT LISTED”

    If I was one of the Labor faceless men I would be having a few words on the quiet with Malcolm. There is a certain Machiavellian elegance to having Malcolm cross the floor and taking the position that he so craves – and will not ever get if Abbott wins the next election (or four).

    He is untainted by the Labor infighting; his defection will give Labor that extra seat allowing them to bury Craig Thomson cleanly; he should be able to drag over a lot of the wet Liberal voters and so give Labor about the only chance of winning against Abbott…

    If I was the Libs I would be watching him very carefully – and have a foolproof strategy in place to win Wentworth away from him should this come to pass.

    Arnost

    20 Feb 12 at 8:18 pm

  43. New entry for Betting Market.
    Odds on the economy recovering from the stewardship of the MORONS listed.
    Would be shorter odds than Black Caviar.
    And the MORONS would probably see that as a freakin’ compliment.

    John Williams

    20 Feb 12 at 8:30 pm

  44. The ALP should make Oakeshott PM, as an independent for now.

    They can put him in a safe seat later on, just win an election a long way out (longest possible date, 30 Nov 2013) and then knife him.

    Doing so would make Abbot look positively amateurish. It would also be very cruel for the electorate.

    .

    20 Feb 12 at 8:31 pm

  45. Most of you will probably not even heard about the execrable Carmen Lawerence and the Penny Easton affair, wherein Lawrence tried to smear Premier Richard Court with an extramarital affair. Penny was driven to suicide. Smith was in this mucky business and scuttled off to Canberra at the first opportunity…

    I’ve heard of it, alright. The then worst prime minister since Gough Whitlam – Paul Keating – accused Commissioner Sir Kenneth Marks of corruption because he found against lowlife bottom feeder Lawrence. Of course Keating the coward did this under parliamentary privelege.

    C.L.

    20 Feb 12 at 8:43 pm

  46. Y’all are having way too much fun picking unlikely people – Kate Ellis, Oaknob, Turnbull, Thompson – who could be PM on the not unreasonable grounds that they could not possibly have done a worse job than Rudd and Gillard.

    But I reckon I can top the lot of you. Christine Nixon.

    (* blows smoke from top of revolver, saunters from room *)

    Jack Lacton

    20 Feb 12 at 9:10 pm

  47. No Lacton, you can’t do that. That’s damned unfair. Everyone promised before they got on the thread they would not pull that name out of the hat in an attempt to win the game.

    You won, but it’s a Pyrrhic victory.

    JC

    20 Feb 12 at 9:14 pm

  48. Remind you of anything?

    oil shrill

    20 Feb 12 at 10:35 pm

  49. and another thing..

    oil shrill

    20 Feb 12 at 10:36 pm

  50. Nope, I want Simon Crean for the rest of the term, and then have him retire from the Parliament with dignity when he calls the election.

    As caretaker PM, he may not want to, or feel able to, change much in the way of policy, but he will get a prize he’s always dreamed of, and he’ll calm down some of the loonies in the asylum.

    Then neither the raving ranga, nor the snowy-haired boy reporter will get the poisoned chalice, and we can hope that they both retire with a massive hissy fit.

    John A

    20 Feb 12 at 11:53 pm

  51. Arnost has the best option, Turnbull. He’d do a “slipper” alright, only chance he now has of ever being PM. And when Labor lose the next election, they can blame the Libs !

    Ed Snack

    21 Feb 12 at 10:41 am

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