Prime Minister for 615 days, Julia Gillard (8th shortest serving Prime Minister of Australia) will be defeated by Kevin Rudd at a leadership ballot next Tuesday and will meet the Governor General on 29 February 2012 to submit her resignation. She will then resign from her safe seat of Lalor and be appointed as the new High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, replacing John Dauth (who has been High Commissioner since September 2008). She will then join Reid, Fisher and Cook as former Australian Prime Ministers who took a posting to London.
Kevin Rudd will recommend that the Governor General appoint the following Cabinet, keeping changes to a minimum:
Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd
Treasurer: Bill Shorten
Minister for Financial Services: Kim Carr
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Simon Crean
Attorney-General: Robert McClelland
Minister for Education: Doug Cameron
Minister for Communications: Chris Bowen
Minister for Defence: Stephen Smith
Minister for Finance: Penny Wong
Minister for the Arts: Peter Garrett
Minister for Health: Tanya Plibersek
Minister for Resources and Energy: Martin Ferguson
Minister for the Environment: Tony Burke
Minister for Families and Community Services: Jenny Macklin.
Prime Minister Rudd will then seek to appear as a renewed leader, having learnt his lessons and call a relatively early election.
Huge call – but you’ve been right in all the other calls.
Sinclair Davidson
22 Feb 12 at 10:55 pm
We have to wait until the 29TH?
Gab
22 Feb 12 at 10:56 pm
Gab – seems nice to have it finish on a leap day!
Samuel J
22 Feb 12 at 10:58 pm
What about appointing her to the High Court?
a la Murphy
Pickles
22 Feb 12 at 11:01 pm
I think Crean will run. He’s been opposition leader before and didn’t stuff up as PM. I think he believes he has a right.
Hopefully Kate Ellis will get a cabinet spot.
.
22 Feb 12 at 11:03 pm
Sincs – I’ve been suggesting KR for some time () but it gives me no joy if this proves right. I think Terry McCrann is right
Samuel J
22 Feb 12 at 11:06 pm
Kate Ellis for PM. Can’t do any worse than the current one or the one the current one knifed.
Tiny Dancer
22 Feb 12 at 11:06 pm
Sorry here is the link to Terry McCrann: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/mccrann-its-now-a-choice-between-our-worst-and-second-worst-ever-pms/story-e6frfhqf-1226278691107
Samuel J
22 Feb 12 at 11:07 pm
I would actually prefer a corruption busting Kathy Jackson as PM, but Kate will do. She’s smarter than the affirmative action chicklets like Roxon and Pilbersek. She carries herself well and can present herself better than Gingerella Vuvuzela.
.
22 Feb 12 at 11:09 pm
Can’t see the early election bit unless there are major policy reversals.
kelly liddle
22 Feb 12 at 11:09 pm
lol
Larry Pickering
Kudelka
Gab
22 Feb 12 at 11:10 pm
The sad thing for people like Kathy Jackson is that they will never be endorsed by the ALP machine because their decency and honesty will disqualify them absolutely and for all time from representing the ALP.
Go Kate
Tiny Dancer
22 Feb 12 at 11:11 pm
Kate wears nice shoes
Tal
22 Feb 12 at 11:14 pm
Samuel
There is one prediction you may be getting wrong and that’s the one about Campbell Newman making a misstep.
Just keeping a tally here.
However on the federal side you’ve been spot on.
I agree, I think Rudd will win it.
I notice fraulein von Roxon isn’t on the list and I guess Rudd will boot her from the AG back to the backbench.
JC
22 Feb 12 at 11:15 pm
Early Money Is Like A Ponzi Scheme…
.
22 Feb 12 at 11:17 pm
JC yes I was wrong about Newman. I may be wrong about Rudd’s return but we will know next week. What for Swan? Perhaps a good serving of humble pie?
samuel j
22 Feb 12 at 11:27 pm
Samuel, I hope you’ve got a nice damp facecloth to wash all that egg off when the time comes.
Interesting timing for the 29th – this means that the next “anniversary” of the event will be four easy-to-forget years into the future!
You forgot the last line. “And then Abbott will spend every day until the next election tearing him a new one, through which he will haemorrhage to death.” And the worst thing is that they won’t be able to afford to switch to anyone else. They’ll have to suffer Rudd’s inexorable psychological disintegration all the way to the polls.
perturbed
22 Feb 12 at 11:34 pm
Go he deserves it and more.
JC
22 Feb 12 at 11:36 pm
A shit sandwich more likely.
Viva
22 Feb 12 at 11:43 pm
Yep, that was my first thought too after looking through the list – where’s Swandive? I hope he makes good on his promise to resign his seat in the event of a Gillard axing. And hopefully some of the indy blowhards start blowing slightly less hard and make good on their repeated declarations that they wouldn’t tolerate a leadership change.
I personally don’t think Rudd will win, and I think reinstalling him would be idiocy of the highest order. Furthermore, I reckon a majority of his colleagues will remember what he was like as leader and choose to go over the cliff with Gillard instead. Not that I’d bet the farm on it. You couldn’t possibly underestimate the stupidity of the mob who make up the current government.
Oh come on
22 Feb 12 at 11:45 pm
Argh! Ruining Frederick’s 39th Birthday! (Pirates of Penzance)
John A
22 Feb 12 at 11:55 pm
Kate Ellis for Minister for Foreign Affairs.
She would raise Australias profile in the world far more than Simon Crean.
AD
22 Feb 12 at 11:56 pm
That might be the first time Kathy Jackson, decency and honesty have been used in the same sentence. She’s not as bad as Thomson but that’s about it.
If Rudd does get up, Shorten must surely be finished until he takes his seat as Leader of the Opposition with his 35 or so colleagues and starts the long haul back.
H B Bear
23 Feb 12 at 12:01 am
Crean for foreign affairs to get him out the road…err country?
Being a bit pedantic it is StePHen Smith (sorry I have a good friend Stephen and I hear it all the time)
Looks about right and as devoid of talent as we have now – what about back bench promotions though for services rendered or you think they will fill up the junior stuff?
Notable absentee one Greg Combet who I still think will be the next Labor leader to win an election – in 7 to 10 years time.
Mark
23 Feb 12 at 12:04 am
He’s too angry blaming, his father’s early death on the rest of us. Basically Rudd with even less personality.
JC
23 Feb 12 at 12:08 am
I don’t see how Crean could have a job under Rudd (and obviously not Swanny). Really, I think Rudd would be better with maximum changes – none of this minimal change BS. But I guess he could only afford to sack people in safe seats (not sure Swanny’s qualifies there)
But Swan is deputy leader, and that position is elected, so there’s need to be a spill there too (Does the deputy get to choose their own portfolio, or is that the liberal party that does that?)
Fleeced
23 Feb 12 at 12:14 am
Man! If we re-elect the RUDD government, then move over New Zealand because we are a nation of sheep.
Alex Pundit
23 Feb 12 at 12:15 am
Roxon could be bought of by creating a new portfolio and installing her in it; Minister for Moral Issues. She’d have a field day.
Oh come on
23 Feb 12 at 12:17 am
off, even.
Oh come on
23 Feb 12 at 12:18 am
Swanny
how I love ya
how I love ya
my dear old Swanny
Oh come on
23 Feb 12 at 12:19 am
Is it possible rude wont even challenge? It would eliminate looking like a fool with only 35 votes, and make gillard look very shaky, whilst continuing to send the polls south, at the same time possibly flushing out a third contender, creating further divisions. He can then sit back on the back bench true to his declarations of never launching a stealth attack etc, and watch the viper nest that fucked him over cannibalise itself. Mr rabbit might even reward rude with the un job he so craves.
Big dumb fu
23 Feb 12 at 12:36 am
Can’t see it, myself.
m0nty
23 Feb 12 at 12:37 am
Hopefully a by-election after a Swanny dummy spit.
It’s clear he hates Rudd, it’s always been there.
Swan has the most marginal seat of the whole cabinet.
He is the one that holds the draw card in terms of forcing a by-election.
brc
23 Feb 12 at 12:41 am
Yes. I did hear a suggestion (which I repeated in the other thread) that Rudd could run in Qld state election. I think that highly unlikely, but as nominations close noon on Monday, it would be quite hilarious for Rudd to simply not turn up to the caucus meeting on Monday, fax in his resignation whilst they’re locked in (with phones off, etc), and then nominate.
It would make them look really silly, after trying to discredit and smear him, and rushing around counting the numbers. He could then say, “Hey, I said I had no interest in challenging… what do you think I am, a promise-breaker?” – and he’d have the added benefit of throwing a grenade in the form of a byelection in his old seat.
Don’t think it will go down that way though… but a fellow can dream
Fleeced
23 Feb 12 at 12:42 am
Doesn’t matter – the vote is on whether Rudd puts his hat in the ring or not. If he doesn’t, it will be 71 votes for Julia Gillard. I guess that’s what you mean by ‘challenge’ – but I don’t know the rules – presumably Rudd supporters can nominate him and vote for him whether he puts his hand up or not.
brc
23 Feb 12 at 12:44 am
Swan obviously realises he’s in for a shit sandwich if Krudd wins:
Rudd wasted opportunities, says Swan
Art Vandelay
23 Feb 12 at 12:44 am
Kevin Rudd’s frosty letter of resignation.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/02/22/1226278/816694-hs-file-rudds-resignation-letter.pdf
note the “your government” comment.
Gab
23 Feb 12 at 1:01 am
At least he will fire a shot this time. Leaving the top job without forcing a ballot was a poor choice I think.
sean
23 Feb 12 at 2:07 am
And these are dyed-in-the-wool Labor supporters:
Larvatus Prodeo.
C.L.
23 Feb 12 at 4:18 am
Mark – fixed
Samuel J
23 Feb 12 at 4:34 am
You forgot Stanley Bruce. Another PM who took the post in Australia House as HC to the UK.
JJP
23 Feb 12 at 7:33 am
At last they get it thank Christ for that.
.
23 Feb 12 at 7:36 am
“From Hell’s Heart I stab at thee! For Hate’s Sake I spit my last breath at thee!!!”
(Moby Dick survived, btw. Ahab didn’t)
Copied from another blog on another topic, but seems relevant.
andyd
23 Feb 12 at 8:28 am
Crean was PM? When did that happen?
ar
23 Feb 12 at 9:18 am
Well I meant as a Minister.
.
23 Feb 12 at 9:20 am
The Socialist Alliance led Aborigines would think twice before trying any Australia Day shenanigans on this Prime Minister. Hiiiiii Yaaaaahh!
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2010/04/04/1225849/624103-kate-ellis-in-grazia-magazine.jpg
Peter Patton
23 Feb 12 at 9:27 am
Gillard says Australians are sick of the ALP in-fighting. She really doesn’t understand us…
ar
23 Feb 12 at 10:12 am
Not only Swann and Combet but Conroy’s missing too. Who’ll be Minister for blowing billions on the NBN and Minister for watching thousands of illegal immigrants arriving?
Fred C Dobbs
23 Feb 12 at 10:36 am
Gillard to journalists:
C.L.
23 Feb 12 at 11:08 am
Just hopeless at this – she really is. A friend who watched it commented, “I think it was the best speech I have ever heard from her & it was still woeful”
Fleeced
23 Feb 12 at 11:24 am
I read Rudd’s Washington statement in full and was amused to see this listed by him as one of his great achievements:
He’s proud of installing Al Qaeda in Libya.
C.L.
23 Feb 12 at 11:29 am
I think I might be the only one hoping for a draw on Monday. That would be great.
Nato
23 Feb 12 at 11:59 am
I’m betting against the Ruddster.
wreckage
23 Feb 12 at 12:31 pm
Does Rudd actually want to win it? Of course he would prefer to win it, but that might merely be a bonus. Plan B, an honorable loss, will be satisfactory and in keeping with his objectives.
I foresee a rally in the polls if he does get up. If nothing else, the party faithful will become energised. They prefer Rudd; they always did.
It will be much worse for them if Gillard wins than if Rudd wins, even if she wins convincingly.
daddy dave
23 Feb 12 at 12:51 pm
Centrebet odds on the ballot:
GILLARD, Julia 1.22
RUDD, Kevin 4.10
ANY OTHER CANDIDATE 7.00
Hmmm…
Fleeced
23 Feb 12 at 12:56 pm
My name is Kevin, I’m from Queensland and win or lose I’m here to ratfuck the lying slapper and her backroom boys
JamesK
23 Feb 12 at 1:04 pm
It would be fun if they both lost and “any other candidate” got up.
Eyrie
23 Feb 12 at 1:13 pm
Maybe they should do it as a timeshare
Fleeced
23 Feb 12 at 1:22 pm
you sure about that, CL?
I thought most of those lavatory pronto loons are greenlimers.
JC
23 Feb 12 at 1:30 pm
For mine Rudd will lose this one.
But Keating lost the first ballot too remember…
I doubt Julia will let go of the leadership either in the event she did lose – this will be settled when one of them leaves parliament…
Ads
23 Feb 12 at 2:36 pm
CL – I receive permanent moderation over at LP. They are so mature.
Occam's Blunt Razor
23 Feb 12 at 4:28 pm
Yeah, Occam – that’s their old trick for banning dissent.
C.L.
23 Feb 12 at 4:30 pm
If nothing else, Kevin Rudd may be remembered for introducing the term “rat-fuck” into wider circulation.
But what’s the definition? Betrayal with self-serving panache, perhaps?
perturbed
24 Feb 12 at 6:27 am
Yeah, that’s why she “made a commitment” that, in the event she lost the ballot, she’d retire to the backbench and abandon any future leadership aspirations – and “challenged” Rudd to commit to the same. Why, yes, of course, Julia! I’m sure Rudd will declare he only has one shot in the locker. hahahaha
Oh come on
24 Feb 12 at 7:01 am
Rudd has an extraordinarily creepy facility to psych his opponents out
JamesK
24 Feb 12 at 8:16 am
I want to see a voiceboard of Rudd delivering lines from Rocky I-VI.
“Hey Julia. I bet you want to know what a real man is like”
“I want you Abbot. I want you chump.”
“Mark Arbib I must break you and the NSW right”
“It’s not how many party room votes you lose, it’s about how many you can lose and get up and keep ratfucking the leadership”
“Yo Therese”
That would pump up the psychological aspect of this battle.
.
24 Feb 12 at 8:42 am