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ALP leadership market

30 comments

Centrebet

Sportsbet

Update: At 8pm Sunday: Centrebet has Gillard at $1.02 and Rudd at $12. Sportsbet has Gillard $1.03 and Rudd at $10.

Written by Sinclair Davidson

February 26th, 2012 at 2:50 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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30 Responses to 'ALP leadership market'

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  1. Wonder what percentage of the money backing Gillard are union dues?

    big dumb fu

    26 Feb 12 at 2:59 pm

  2. I wonder what would happen if say Smith threw a hat into the ring?

    Jazza

    26 Feb 12 at 3:02 pm

  3. why contest on such a weak base unless a second challenge is planned?

    the line ‘I will not accept if nominated, and will not serve if elected’ sets Rudd up for a good foundation for backs-to-the-well caucus coming to him in 2013 and appealed to his higher duty to serve the public one last time.

    Howard said he was finished as a contender for party leader before coming back for the dead in 1995/6

    Jim Rose

    26 Feb 12 at 3:14 pm

  4. Right, so SportsBet and CentreBet read the papers.

    So much for the special predictive powers of betting markets.

    C.L.

    26 Feb 12 at 3:24 pm

  5. The Labor Party is soooooo disdainful of the Opposition, they’ve created their own opposition within.

    How clever of them!

    They’ll probably tout that as a revenue saving initiative.

    Anne

    26 Feb 12 at 3:33 pm

  6. Right, so SportsBet and CentreBet read the papers.

    So much for the special predictive powers of betting markets.

    I think the way it works is that the people who read the papers are placing the bet and betting agencies set their odds in accordance with how much people are willing to bet.

    You are right though about the ‘special predictive powers’ of betting markets. They are just a different way of collecting a collective view . Opinion polls are another way of collecting a collective view.

    As the future is always uncertain, it’s a fine academic point whether betting markets have a superior predictive power.

    Johno

    26 Feb 12 at 3:53 pm

  7. Okay so basically there’s no money to be made betting on Gillard. The only reason to punt on this is if you think Rudd has a better chance than has been publicly revealed.

    What do people think? I’d put that possibility at 50 percent, leaving open the 50 percent possibility that he’ll be trounced.

    daddy dave

    26 Feb 12 at 3:57 pm

  8. Perth Beach Report,

    I have just returned from a good walk and lovely swim at the beach, the sights were magnificient and I am sure that bikinis are getting smaller, I did not think that it was possible.

    The swim and walk calmed me down after viewing Insiders, there was not even a pretence of balance, no one seemed to be giving Rudds case. It reminded me of an organisation like Pravada where everyone had to follow the party line. A sad day for democracy.

    The Bolt Report on the other hand did have people from all sides of the politcial spectrum arguing their cases, with an openess as to which side of the debate they were on.

    After writing this I am going have to go back to the beach to cool off.

    AD

    26 Feb 12 at 4:09 pm

  9. I don’t think Rudd will win on Monday but Labor can’t take Gillard to the next election. Albanese and Hawker both know this.

    The rest of them are still clinging to the belief that flinging some more cash at pensioners, welfare recipients and other core Labor demographics will improve things in a few months time once the carbon tax kicks in. Remember how Labor’s polling was supposed to improve after the carbon tax was legislated and Julia wore out her shoe leather selling it to the Australian people?

    H B Bear

    26 Feb 12 at 4:18 pm

  10. Danby was doing the same this morning. Pinning all hope on the handouts delivered before the carbon tax kicks in.

    The problem with this scenario is that people will take the handouts, accept them as theirs, build them into their cost of living, and forget about the handouts when the next big electricity bill arrives. Even the preliminary joy at getting the handouts will be muted as they know in their hearts that they will be paying for them later.

    Entropy

    26 Feb 12 at 4:28 pm

  11. Aaahhaaaaahah

    “JOIN RUDDY’S[sic] ARMY – return home”

    What a funny mob.

    Jumpnmcar

    26 Feb 12 at 4:56 pm

  12. Anyone who ever put money on Rudd was kidding themselves. What a boat race this whole sorry saga has been. As if they would ever go back to Rudd.

    m0nty

    26 Feb 12 at 5:25 pm

  13. Such a shame they won’t be televising the Monday morning Labor caucus assembly thus denying us the human right to tweet in watch the live twitter feed scroll across the screen.

    Gab

    26 Feb 12 at 5:30 pm

  14. Right, so SportsBet and CentreBet read the papers.

    So much for the special predictive powers of betting markets.

    They don’t set the odds based on what they read in the papers – they set them based on bets received.

    Fleeced

    26 Feb 12 at 5:34 pm

  15. Remember how Labor’s polling was supposed to improve after the carbon tax was legislated and Julia wore out her shoe leather selling it to the Australian people?

    Just wait until the job losses start to kick in…

    Rabz

    26 Feb 12 at 5:42 pm

  16. What do people think? I’d put that possibility at 50 percent, leaving open the 50 percent possibility that he’ll be trounced.

    I think Rudd’s chances are less than 50%, but much more than the odds indicated by the payout. In that context, it might be worth a small bet on Rudd.

    Fleeced

    26 Feb 12 at 5:42 pm

  17. In that context, it might be worth a small bet on Rudd.

    Indeed, it might be. Self preservation is a powerful motivator…

    Rabz

    26 Feb 12 at 5:44 pm

  18. Jumpnmcar

    I would like to urge all catallaxy types to use the list of Labor MP’s emails provided by Rudd’s Army to tell all Labor members of Parliament what we really want – AN ELECTION NOW!

    They had ther chance and they have failed. It’s Time the Australian people had a say.

    johno

    26 Feb 12 at 5:59 pm

  19. Good old Swan, the consummate fool.

    DEPUTY Prime Minister Wayne Swan says the public attacks by ministers on Kevin Rudd’s record as prime minister are not personal but an attempt to set the record straight.

    Sure, we believes ya.

    Gab

    26 Feb 12 at 6:02 pm

  20. it might be worth a small bet on Rudd.

    I’m not betting on this one. I don’t like betting fields where the result is decided by a small number of individuals. Contests decided by judging panels fall into the same category (boxing being the exception).

    daddy dave

    26 Feb 12 at 6:18 pm

  21. DEPUTY Prime Minister Wayne Swan says the public attacks by ministers on Kevin Rudd’s record as prime minister are not personal but an attempt to set the record straight.

    LOL… he’s a sociopath. Nothing personal – just setting the record straight.

    Fleeced

    26 Feb 12 at 6:22 pm

  22. Something just occurred to me about Albanese’s tears.

    That, I think, is a sign of the extreme level of stress that this appalling fiasco is putting him under. It’s probably putting a lot of other Labor caucus members and possibly staffers under similar levels of stress.

    daddy dave

    26 Feb 12 at 6:30 pm

  23. LOL… he’s a sociopath. Nothing personal – just setting the record straight.

    Is anyone normal in the fucking party. They all seem to have deep psychological issues.

    JC

    26 Feb 12 at 6:31 pm

  24. They all seem to have deep psychological issues.

    Yes, notably two main issues: ‘whateverittakesitis’ and ‘whogivesashitaboutthecountryaslongaswe’reinpowerzophrenia’

    Gab

    26 Feb 12 at 6:37 pm

  25. Is anyone normal in the fucking party. They all seem to have deep psychological issues.

    Maybe not all, JC, but definitely, Rudd, Latham, Oakshott and Slipper. These guys are so obviously a roo short in the top paddock.

    Anne

    26 Feb 12 at 7:13 pm

  26. Iv’e thought of a betting market; First ALP PM to say , on monday night ” This leadership ballot has been a positive for the Labour party,we are stronger as a party and we make the tough decisions”
    Then bag Abbott.

    It’s an open race, Who ya got.
    Maybe a sweep, I’ll take Albo.

    Jumpnmcar

    26 Feb 12 at 7:41 pm

  27. First ALP PM to say , on monday night…

    You’ve shortened the field somewhat, Squire!

    Rabz

    26 Feb 12 at 8:31 pm

  28. You’ve shortened the field somewhat, Squire!

    Haha,woops,” MP” dat awt be.

    Jumpnmcar

    26 Feb 12 at 9:38 pm

  29. First ALP PM to say , on monday night…

    You’ve shortened the field somewhat, Squire!

    I dunno, there seems to be at least a couple of them in that room…

    ar

    26 Feb 12 at 10:16 pm

  30. Rudd did say that he will fully support Julia should he lose because “to stop Tony Abbott a far right extremist” It could be just to get more votes and if he loses he quits parliament. Ok is just my wishfull thinking.

    kelly liddle

    27 Feb 12 at 3:59 am

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