Do not sell Julia Gillard short

Anyone who sells Julia Gillard short is asking for big trouble. She is a formidable political operator as the routing of Kevin Rudd today has shown [see The Australian Gillard Routs Rudd in Party Ballot to the tune of 71-31]. Kevin, too, felt the same lack of respect that I see is all too general on the right side of politics who are for no reason I can think of, disdainful of Gillard and her ability to achieve outcomes. She wins, and is now the most powerful Prime Minister this country has had in years. There is nothing she wants that is beyond her grasp being in cahoots as she is with her soulmates in the Greens.

Today’s Newspoll results should terrify the Libs. Two Party Preferred: Coalition 53% – Labor 47%. This is an average sort of result for a government in the midst of its term, not a party in the midst of a supposed bloodletting. You irritate people by doing things, who show a kind of displeasure by pretending they will vote for the other side when they never would. As I look at things, the Coalition and Labor, even in the midst of this ALP fight to the death, are virtually tied. And when Gillard finally rids herself of Kevin Rudd, she will have destroyed not just a rival for her job, but will have left him powerless and friendless, utterly lost on the back bench. If I were Kevin, I wouldn’t be so sure about pre-selection either.

And what has been said time and again in this leadership stoush is that the electorate still hasn’t been informed of the compensation package that will be built out of the money taken through the Carbon Tax. This is money that will become a slush fund of immense proportions that will be used in every marginal and across the board. The CPI will go up, industry may shrink, living standards may fall but if you are a leftist know-nothing, you live to become the Lady Bountiful of the masses, which Julia Gillard will then most certainly become.

I fear people misjudge Julia’s competence. She has shown herself incredibly able at the job of leading a party and it is she who is Prime Minister, not Kevin Rudd and not, in spite of everything at the 2010 election, Tony Abbott.

The 2013 election is far from lost for Labor.

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144 Responses to Do not sell Julia Gillard short

  1. JC

    Steve:

    answer me this. Has there been one poll Labor has won since the last election?

  2. Bill

    She sure is a smooth operator Steve. She has terminated the careers of both Kevin Rudd and Anna Bligh in a single day.

  3. Steve Kates

    JC – She is Prime Minister having even lost the last election! She has lost every poll as well. But she has now solidified her party and will start handing out money left and right. She is like Obama in that no level of incompetence seems to matter. If the Coalition is unwilling to be forthright about climate change and the Fair Work Act just for starters, what are they going to offer as an alternative come August 2013?

  4. sean

    My analysis of the event:

    What everyone knew would happen did. The ALP vote in factions, factions supported Spillard, Rudd had no chance.
    \/case closed.

  5. JC

    Steve

    I understand what you’re getting at, but I have no fear about losing the next election in both countries if people want to vote these imbeciles in.

    There’s no point going 1/2ies with the left any more and I’d rather see our side lose the next election than to be a me-too-but-1/2 government.

    Her polices will eventually sink the country and if it means we wait, we wait. No biggie.

    If the libs are unable to articulate a good reason to vote for them they deserve to lose the election.

  6. val majkus

    August 1913?

    Does Steve know something I don’t?

    Gillard might be a formidable political operator; quite frankly I’d prefer someone competent leading the Govt and I’ve seen no sign that Gillard is competent at least not in ways beneficial to the national interest

    Self survival interest is all very well; what about the interest of the nation; the national interest if you will

  7. Steve Kates

    Fixed. I was thinking about the Guns of August as I wrote.

  8. Ubique

    Ok, she’s ruthless and a proven liar. Can’t see any essence of competence; or leadership; or ability to develop and deliver good policy.

  9. sean

    2013 the Coalition has to focus on NSW, NSW, NSW as it is where the battle will be won. This whole saga is simply a reason to play the NSW LAbor line which was enough for the state voters to give them one of the biggest thrashings of all time last poll.

    QLD/Wa already at max
    SA/Tas – a dud
    Vic – PM’s home state and tight.

  10. Richard

    After her record of broken promises and betrayals how is she expecting anyone to take her promises seriously at the next election?

    Her short term tactics are excellent, but her long term strategic sense is non-existent. Despite her reputation as great negotiator we see that she consistently gives away a lot more than she gets in the long term. She trashes the long term for the benefit of the short term.

    Her record of policy development is littered with fiascoes as well. Medicare Gold, Asylum seekers, East Timor, Citizens Assembly, cash for clunkers, pokies agreement with Wilkie.

  11. JamesK

    She wins, and is now the most powerful Prime Minister this country has had in years.

    What? More powerful than Kruddy in his first two years?

    More powerful thean Kruddy’s predecessor?

    Or just more powerful than Kruddy’s final 6 months and more powerful than she herself was last week?

    Or is Steve Kate’s just being a big girl’s blouse again?

  12. She has shown herself incredibly able at the job of leading a party and it is she who is Prime Minister, not Kevin Rudd and not, in spite of everything at the 2010 election, Tony Abbott.

    Jeez Steve, you ought to get out more.

    She held on to her job because her colleagues think she’s more tolerable than Rudd, who is a jumped-up little prick who just happens to be a good campaigner. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement.

    She barely survived the 2010 election, after a single term, when she should have romped it in.

    It appears she has some negotiating skills, judging by the support she gets from Oakshott, Windsor and Bandt, but that’s about it.

  13. Token

    Interesting viewpoint, who is understimating the woman?

    Her record of policy development is littered with fiascoes as well. Medicare Gold, Asylum seekers, East Timor, Citizens Assembly, cash for clunkers, pokies agreement with Wilkie.

    For someone to survive this list is just plain amazing, no other PM has got away with anything on a similiar scale.

    I posted last week that contrary to the BS being pedelled by the media, she has had an _easier_ run than Rudd as PM (who had Fielding & Xenophon controlling the senate) as through the Alliance she controls the House & Senate and the whole of Howard’s term as she has the majority of the media as her cheersquad.

  14. m0nty

    No no no, this is all wrong. Keep underestimating Gillard. Don’t develop any policies of your own. Continue being intellectually lazy, please.

  15. KC

    No, broadly the author is correct.

    The key will be the next Newspoll. That will be the one recording whatever damage the Labor foodfight has caused.

    If that remains at a primary of 35%, then in the absence of Rudd undermining and the soon to roll out ‘compensation’ for the carbon tax, they have a base to start making the case for reelection.

    The DLP (aka the Liberals) will then have to make a start of emphasising the lies of the ALP (which they’ve done) and what they will do different (which they haven’t, at least yet)

  16. Token

    No no no, this is all wrong. Keep underestimating Gillard. Don’t develop any policies of your own. Continue being intellectually lazy, please.

    I do hope that Labor believes this spin and their Stenographers keep trying to put it forward, it is exactly the type of hubris that Steve is warning the Coalition against.

  17. Good grief. It would be hard to underestimate you Montgomery.

  18. .

    Um monty Abbot has written a book which is his policy manifesto.

  19. south

    What makes even less sense is that the ALP’s 2PP score would increase after the resounding defeat of Rudd, the so-called people’s choice. If Gillard is the least-preferred of all three potential PMs at the moment, then surely the increase is an anomaly and should not be taken too seriously at this stage.

  20. H B Bear

    I can’t wait for Albo to stand up in parliament today after his little blub on the weekend. Gillard may want to keep him there – I’m not sure she can.

    I don’t think that Gillard has been electable since introducing the carbon tax. The Libs just need to run the perfectly timed 15 second clip a couple of times a night around 6pm on TV and sit back.

  21. Token

    What makes even less sense is that the ALP’s 2PP score would increase after the resounding defeat of Rudd, the so-called people’s choice. If Gillard is the least-preferred of all three potential PMs at the moment, then surely the increase is an anomaly and should not be taken too seriously at this stage.

    It has been 2 weeks since Gillard shot herself in the foot with a moronic policy decision, the next bomb is about to go off any day now…

    Choose from:

    * Shagger Thomson & Fair Work Australia
    * Anything else Fair Work Australi goes near
    * The Oz Day riot her staff & the Canberra Unions organised
    * Murray Darling Basin Water Plan
    * Forgetting to submit the forms to make the rulings of the family court binding
    * NBN
    * Health
    etc.

  22. Rococo Liberal

    Steve,

    You are correct that we on the right should not underestimate the PM. But we should not overestimate her either.

    She has made a pig’s breakfast of things so far. I don’t suspect seeing of the limp-dick challenge of Rudd will increase her stature with the voters.

    let us reserve our comments until the next few polls come out.

    And 53-47 is more than Rudd’s winning margin in 2007. It would be a massive loss to the ALP.

  23. Chris M

    “I fear people misjudge Julia’s competence. She has shown herself incredibly able at the job of leading a party”

    A tad overdone on the sarcasm dontcha think?

  24. C.L.

    She is a formidable political operator as the routing of Kevin Rudd today has shown…

    She beat a recently dumped leader in a party poll.

    This makes her “formidable”?

    Respectfully, Steve: get a grip.

  25. Peter Patton

    Seriously, the dudes here – and elsewhere – who were predicting a Rudd win really need to give the political commentary game away.

  26. m0nty

    Um monty Abbot has written a book which is his policy manifesto.

    Is that an official Liberal Party policy document? No.

    Writing a book about airy-fairy concepts is one thing. Costing a set of fully-formed policies is another. The Hockey/Robb clown car has been shown up as a hopeless joke in one election, they have a lot of work to do to rebuild the Liberal platform and make the numbers add up this time.

  27. JC

    The Hockey/Robb clown car has been shown up as a hopeless joke in one election,

    Why’s that Monster. Are you capable of ‘splaining the numbers? Go!

  28. Gab

    When Labor was in opposition, how often did they release their policies two years out from an election?

  29. Peter Patton

    Labor needs to make Rudd two offers he can’t refuse. One involving a greater distance than just the back bench; the second wearing concrete shoes.

  30. ar

    She is a formidable political operator as the routing of Kevin Rudd today has shown

    If Gillard had won a 3-way contest then maybe…

  31. m0nty

    Ah good, JC. You allow me to link to the shameful Hockey/Robb financial scandal once again.

  32. ar

    When Labor was in opposition, how often did they release their policies two years out from an election?

    Kevin07 was the “me too” election…

  33. Token

    When Labor was in opposition, how often did they release their policies two years out from an election?

    Hahaha, We all know they dumped their costings on the last day of the 2007 election as no sane person would put Swan’s mathematics up to any rigorous scrutiny!

    Its getting close to 2 years since the MRRT policy was released and even with the help of the glorious bean-counters in Treasury, Goose & Labor still can not explain how that dud of a policy adds up.

    Keep trying M-nty.

  34. JC

    Put it in your own words and the impact it has on the budget, Monster. Numbers, not a link, you ignorant oaf.

  35. C.L.

    Costing a set of fully-formed policies is another.

    He should study Gillard’s outstanding financial management of the set-top box ‘roll-out.’

    LOL.

  36. m0nty

    $70 billion black hole not big enough for you, JC? You’re right, Hockey and Robb can probably outdo that horrific figure in 2013. They can definitely shoot for $100 billion of irresponsible, uncosted promises.

  37. C.L.

    Julia began her career as a fully costed policy wonk with Medicare Gold.

    It was later revealed she and Latho were making up numbers the morning before the press conference.

  38. Gab

    m0nty, you and Swan are the only ones fixated on Abbott’s black hole. Why is that?

  39. JC

    Monster:

    If you are unable to prove your claim then say so and be a fucking man about it, you fat headed child.

    Fuck you’re a moron, Monster. The worst

  40. Peter Patton

    Well, Bill Shorten and Greg Combet just added 31 names and numbers to their priority speed-dial and Xmas card list.

  41. C.L.

    Actually, the more I think about it, claims of a Triumphant! Triumph! are a smidgen overcooked.

    One third of the backbenchers behind Gillard hate her guts and think she’s an incompetent loser.

    Probably another 10 think the same way but decided to back the favourite to make the whole disaster look better for the party.

  42. Token

    Well, Bill Shorten and Greg Combet just added 31 names and numbers to their priority speed-dial and Xmas card list.

    As if this was about Rudd, it was a great stage for either Smith or Shorten to build up.

    I put my money on Smith he is Swan’s best mate and the only way he’ll survive as Treasurer.

    If Shorten takes over Swan will be sent to a junior ministry and never be allowed near so much as a calculator.

  43. Rabz

    Seriously, the dudes here – and elsewhere – who were predicting a ruff win really need to give the political commentary game away.

    Might be paranoia, but a clarification is called for here – I never predicted that ruff would win this challenge and also stated that if today’s result was a significant thumping then there may be no way back.

    Will kevni now walk? As one final act of bastardry it might be on the cards.

  44. C.L.

    If Shorten takes over Swan will be sent to a junior ministry and never be allowed near so much as a calculator.

    I would have no objection to Swan being parliamentary secretary for women’s affairs or something like that.

  45. twostix

    $70 billion black hole not big enough for you, JC? You’re right, Hockey and Robb can probably outdo that horrific figure in 2013. They can definitely shoot for $100 billion of irresponsible, uncosted promises.

    As opposed to $100 million a week every week for years now. What’s the debt? $250 billion? And that’s not a “blackhole”?

    You’re reverting to hackneyed shill but at least you’ve lost some of your bitterness.

    This “blackhole” nonsense is all you have though isn’t m0nty? There’s nothing else you’ve got.

  46. .

    $70 billion black hole not big enough for you, JC? You’re right, Hockey and Robb can probably outdo that horrific figure in 2013. They can definitely shoot for $100 billion of irresponsible, uncosted promises.

    That’s bullshit. Swan has a 200 bn debt issue.

    Given the record of Swan’s budget projections and politicisation of Treasury, we can reject the idea of a “70 bn dollar black hole”.

    Julia began her career as a fully costed policy wonk with Medicare Gold.

    It was later revealed she and Latho were making up numbers the morning before the press conference.

    HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    minty thinks that “fully costing” items and then blowing them out at a later date is however forgiveable.

  47. Peter Patton

    I doubt Greg Combet would ever let Shorten get a jump on him.

  48. twostix

    He should study Gillard’s outstanding financial management of the set-top box ‘roll-out.’

    M0nty the governments number on shill on the blown out, off budget, totally unused and unwanted NBN tries to obtusely paint the opposition as bad with numbers.

    Very amusing and in great form isn’t he?

  49. Megan

    She’s like a gutter fighter, with good tactical ability driven by being up against the wall with nowhere to go. Totally survival driven and completely short term.

    But she has not got a strategic bone in her body which results in disaster for every project she touches. As the competency gap between strategy and tactics gets bigger her long term survival prospects plummet.

    There’s usually a fair bit of lag time before the effects of poor or non-existent strategy is felt. This might not be true of the Carbon Tax.

    As for being a great negotiator…well, I’d be even better than her if I knew I was never going to deliver on whatever it was I’d negotiated.

  50. daddy dave

    Anyone who sells Julia Gillard short is asking for big trouble. She is a formidable political operator as the routing of Kevin Rudd today has shown

    let me echo CL. *ahem* “Seriously Steve, get a grip.”
    The events of today told us what we already knew. Namely that when it comes to backroom deals, wheeling-dealing, and party machinations, Gillard totally rocks. No news there.

  51. M Ryutin

    ‘people misjudge Julia’s competence’

    No, they don’t.

    Gillard is a solid factional hack, successful when factions say so. Life-long politician and nothing more – having brilliant life skills or ability to decide for the economy are merely incidental (and not really in evidence unless achieving the Greens agenda is what you mean). Her legal career is covered by the union-mouthpiece job reality of her only ‘working’ life. In fact naivety about life (‘mysterious frock largesse’ and lack of competent character-assessments in at least one of her boyfriends) shows this and, in fact, even her taking the leadership from Rudd backs up these basic weaknesses –“no compromise, get back in there and tell him you are challenging now” – “Okay”.

    In short nothing about ‘brilliant’ operator , “competence’ at all, unless it is advisers competence or Greens brilliance.
    For all that though, anyone who thinks Abbott has an easy run is kidding him or herself and it has nothing at all to do with opinion polls. Not only is the ‘Dr No’ meme being eagerly taken up by all the usual media suspects, but he has to start coming out with coherent policies in areas where he has deliberately stayed vague. Howard and others got away with staying silent whilst waiting for a landslide but attempts to do in a non-landslide scenario have usually failed. He also needs a stronger front bench which is terrible and filled with some weak and past-it faces. There is so much deadwood there and so much untapped talent elsewhere that it will be a true test of the merits of Tony Abbott to see whether he acts on such changes.

    Abbott has failed one of these tests already. Says that he will take this lopsided and partially ineffactive front bench to the next election!

  52. daddy dave

    to Peter Patton:

    Seriously, the dudes here – and elsewhere – who were predicting a Rudd win really need to give the political commentary game away

    Who predicted a Rudd win? Some of us toyed with the possibility, but since we’re not Labor Caucus members (at least, I’m not) it was all idle speculation.

    to south:

    If Gillard is the least-preferred of all three potential PMs at the moment, then surely the increase is an anomaly and should not be taken too seriously at this stage.

    Correct, it’s an anomaly for several reasons. Anyone who thinks otherwise, please refer to Peter Patton’s comment above for guidance.

  53. Peter Patton

    I don’t want to get in the prediction game, as we have enough reality to keep us occupied, but Smith and Swan will road kill in the wake of Combet and Shorten. Given Shorten’s public face fully-exposed support on steroids for Gillard, it will be interesting to see what she she puts him on her front bench.

  54. Megan

    I would have no objection to Swan being parliamentary secretary for women’s affairs or something like that.

    C.L. – what have we women done to deserve that?

  55. ar

    One third of the backbenchers behind Gillard hate her guts and think she’s an incompetent loser

    Whoo, more like 30% Heh heh. Don’t want to risk another Conroy spray by describing the numbers as one third. And I do mean spray…

  56. Token

    Don’t want to risk another Conroy spray by describing the numbers as one third. And I do mean spray…

    I really thought he was going to cry again today like he did about that non-existant nuclear crisis in Britain…

  57. Jazza

    I think you onderestimate how much people hate the CO2 tax and the lack of an asylum seeker policy

    The news that those boat people are given so much in the community while many of our own go without has caused white hot anger.

    The whole pro rata method of compensation for the Co2 tax while everyone’s bills will go up at the same rates of increase due to the tax effect across every level of daily life–let alone job losses increasing, , will NOT help the ones on low incomes–

    The tax will be Labor’s obituary and it is going to do her in!

  58. Don’t want to risk another Conroy spray by describing the numbers as one third. And I do mean spray…

    LOL – did he actually do that? Quibble that 31 wasn’t quite a third?

    I saw his “outrage” this morning at Hawker’s suggestion Gillard respect the will of the people and not contest the leadership. Something along the lines of “How dare he suggest an elected PM don’t even stand” (not exact words – can’t find them). Two problems though:

    1) This is exactly what Gillard and co *demanded* of Rudd in 2010 – under threat that they would destroy his name/legacy completely if he didn’t withdraw; and, more obviously

    2) GILLARD IS NOT AN ELECTED PM

    They keep trying to gloss over point (2)

  59. twostix

    The tax will be Labor’s obituary and it is going to do her in!

    If someone came along and said we’re going to cancel the FTB and lower taxes many people would vote against them after being demagogued by the media as “Party X wants to steal your centrelink payments!!11”

    They’ll do the same with the carbon tax rebates, people will see the money in the bank each fortnight and Tony Abbott will come along and say we’ll be getting rid of all that and Labor and the Media will have a field day.

  60. ar

    LOL – did he actually do that? Quibble that 31 wasn’t quite a third?

    Did he ever.

    Video here.

    Under “interviews” tab.

    Conroy demonstrated a lot of what he criticised in Rudd…

  61. Adrien

    And when Gillard finally rids herself of Kevin Rudd, she will have destroyed not just a rival for her job, but will have left him powerless and friendless, utterly lost on the back bench

    Like Keating?

  62. James in Melbourne

    Here it comes, the hagiographies of Julia.

  63. Maurice

    Gillard is only powerful because of the Independants threats “All bets are off” mantra if they changed leaders (which is now threadbare as we all know they are just a Labor extension) as well as the Liberal thumping in NSW. They know changing another leader will show that federal Labor is now fully entrenched with the NSW Labor Disease. So in effect its because of Labor’s incompetence in almost losing a first term government and Gillard dealing with a so-called minority government that has kept her in power.

  64. Adrien

    2) GILLARD IS NOT AN ELECTED PM

    Um, yeah she is. There was an election remember?

  65. Adrien

    And 53-47 is more than Rudd’s winning margin in 2007. It would be a massive loss to the ALP.

    Yes now, they have quite a while to turn things around. Unlike Kevvie with his glass jaw and his tantrums, Gillard is basically tough. If she keeps it together enough not to be photographed running away from angry mobs for a while approval of her government will improve. 53-47 is a very bad figure for Abbott and the Coalition. They should be much more popular than they are. They’re the Opposition to a government that should be resigning ferchrissake!

  66. pedro

    She is PM, but the electorate did not make her PM.

  67. C.L.

    Gillard is basically tough

    Tough as nails, that’s Julia.

  68. Abu Chowdah

    Seriously, the dudes here – and elsewhere – who were predicting a Rudd win really need to give the political commentary game away.

    For me, it was like wishing upon a star. I admit I knew it was a forlorn but fervent hope when I wrote it.

    I still think he needed to be punished at the polls for his bad policy, lies and insanity. Instead this gives him an out, as his popularity with the mouth breathing public attests.

    As I have always said, we will now see ALP lose the next election and be reading interviews with Rudd for the next 25 years about how things might have been different if he’d had the leadership. This line will likely also be run by Megalogenis and the rest of the brown collar press.

  69. Did he ever.

    LOL… “It’s only 30% – nowhere near a third!”

  70. Token

    Listen to Comical Ali (aka. Conroy) make a tit of himself (start at 9:00 min)

  71. Sleetmute

    Essential Research 2PP L/NP 55%, ALP 45%, based on 2-week rolling average (so could understate increase in L/NP 2PP).

  72. blogstrop

    If there really was an election due by the end of this year they might have thought differently, and there may have been a third and fourth hat in the ring. But with longer to run there’s plenty of time for the more standard operational switcheroo 9-12 months out. If it’s not in the Labor rule book yet it must surely be in a supplementary volume. The end of this year will be interesting, in fact the remainder of this year will be. This week has been quite a vintage one, and today a special day for the political junkies. To be continued …

  73. Rococo Liberal

    The poll is most likely a rogue, influenced by the excitement of the leadership stoush where the focus was on the ALP almost exclusively. Once the voters realise that we are stuck with Ms G as PM, I bet they will come back to the Coalition in significant numbers.

    The one thing that demonstrates that even Labor know they are in trouble is that both leadership candidates based their appeal on the fact that thought they could beta Tony Abbott. In other words Abbott is in the box seat. They all dance to his tune.

  74. Viva

    Oh my – how the narrative changes following a win. Suddenly the incompetent lying slapper of yesterday leaking support on a daily basis becomes the brilliant tactician of today ready to conquer the world.

    Gillard could only have won because the man opposing her was uniquely hated in the annals of the ALP. He had zada factional backing – a cuckoo in the nest who had no cultural ties to traditional labor. He broke the code of omerta deeply offending the consiglieri who decide whose hand will be kissed.

    This win was gifted to her without her having to lift a finger. So let’s not get suddenly carried away. It’s the same old Julia we knew and saw for what she was last week – and when the fairy dust of this supposed victory fades from Mr Kates’ eyes, the reality of that Julia will come hurtling back into full focus.

  75. Rafe

    Essential poll now rading 56 to the Coalition and 44 for the lying slapper.

    People need to realise the impact of Fair Work on the little people. My favorite little cafe no longer employs young female waiters,certainly not on the weekends, he has got his aged parents in to help in the kitchem and the proprietor runs back and forth with the meals.

  76. Gab

    Essential poll:

    Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?

    Kevin Rudd 18%

    Julia Gillard 39%

    Other people in the Labor Party 23%

    The media 10%

    Don’t know 10%

  77. Gab

    Labor backed the wrong nag today.

  78. “Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?”

    The Australian people for still supporting such a rabble. Not all the Australian people but the 44% who prefer them over a coalition which could not in all reason be any worse. If support dropped to 10% they might change their ways.

  79. C.L.

    In his censure motion today, Abbott mocked the talk of Triumphant! Triumph! and pointed out that a third of the people sitting behind Gillard thought the better option was a man described last week as a “psychopath.”

  80. Rabz

    Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?

    Mr Rabbit wasn’t an option?

  81. C.L.

    Watching Gillard in Parliament, you can see clearly that only one thing motivates and enthrals her.

    And it’s not good governance or da grate Labor Pardy, neither of which it would be possible for her to care less about.

    It is pure, visceral fear and hatred of Tony Abbott and the idea that he might end up in her seat.

  82. Peter

    Her core competency is win at all costs political cunning and ability to to give the appearance of defending the indefensible. She is the Geoffrey Boycott of politics, almost impossible to dislodge and even when you do she will claim she didn’t hit it. None of these strengths speak to effective policy formulation or implementation, the absence of which has characttrised the entire period since Rudd won office.

  83. Oh come on

    It doesn’t matter. I am slightly surprised that Rudd’s vote wasn’t higher – I thought the many ALP MPs not in deep-blue ribbon Labor electorates would value their seats more highly, and my advice to them would be to start polishing their CVs now – but I always said that it’s best if Gillard captains the ship onto the rocks.

    So, no big deal. Let Gillard continue her consistent programme of screwing everything up. Maybe Rudd will do a Keating as the sideshow continues, maybe not. She’s toast at the next election, regardless.

  84. Oh come on

    CL: if that’s true then she’s heading for one helluva breakdown in a year or so – hopefully less.

  85. Bill

    If her polls dont rally in the next three or four months, (and it’s hard to see how they will), those faceless men will be muttering in the corridors again.

    I’d bet that Shorten will lead at the next election.

  86. James

    Julia is a borderline incompetent PM, but she is popular inside her party.

    Formidable is NOT a word I’d use to describe her – she won a popularity contest against someone universally hated by the people voting – I think you’re getting carried away steve…

  87. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Julia’s meme is one for her and all for her. Malign is a word that comes to mind. From the very start, she’s always given me the shivers; its the narrow calculation in the eyes, the sharp look, an air of pretense, none of it countered by her caught out lies. Plus I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a weak and patronising communicator in political life in any country. Trust her? If Australians don’t vote her out, they truly deserve her.

    Rudd, on the other hand, is merely a self-serving cringe-making identikit-style obsessive. Much better.

  88. John Comnenus

    Julia shows herself to be formidable in person with her parliamentary colleagues. In that arena she is good. But she has consistently shown that she has terrible judgement and timing with respect to anything the public think is important.

    It is as difficult to see Gillard reforming herself after this crushing win as it is hard to believe Rudd is a changed man after his loss. A win gives little incentive to change. I have read the ALP wrong in these issues, but surely they cannot go back to Rudd.

    I agree with JC and Steve that the Coalition needs to sharpen the contrast, especially on Global Warming and IR. Abbott needs to show some mettle. The media will ensure he is never liked by the mainstream, his only hope is to win respect. You don’t get respect by being half hearted.

    I think Sean is also right re NSW. And this is where the Coalition can win big time. They should learn from the way Gillard destroyed Rudd and do the same to the ALP – especially in NSW.

    It is not unreasonable to assume that former ALP MPs and bigwigs will have four or more criminal cases to defend in NSW, (Palluzano on trial soon, ICAC recommending charges against Kelly and Watkins to the DPP, Armstrong subject to the embarassing revelations in the ICAC investigation, Williamson and Thomson possibly facing secret commissions charges soon. They should get four out of that lot so take your pick).

    It is time to explain to the public that the ALP are not only liars about their internal workings, they are also by far and away the most criminal and corrupt political party in the country, and especially in NSW. It wont hurt to add that offences involving children and sexual abuse is one of the most common reasons ALP men end up behind bars.

  89. val majkus

    I think from what has been by Labor members this past week that Julia’s formidability is the answer to the question which boss would I rather (by members of the caucus) serve
    If that’s the question she’s weak, not formidable

    and she’s incompetent and self serving

    I have no idea what Steve calls ‘formidable’; is it just ‘I get my way”

    That’s not formidability; but I do acknowledge that is the way that the Canberra press pack see it

    So might be that Steve has been spending too much time overseas or in Canberra

  90. kae

    Solidified the party? There’s a name for that… wait… it’s on the tip of my…

    coprolite

    Yeah, that’s what they are. Solidified. Fossilised.

    Coprolite.

  91. There’s a name for that… wait… it’s on the tip of my…

    coprolite

    Hush, child. You’ll be summoning MaryBob.

  92. val majkus

    Steve’s got the Mark Riley disease

    I want a politician who is not just looking how to remain in power (Steve’s version of success being formidability) but one looking to Australia’s interests as opposed to their own

    The opposite to Gillard remaining in power in my view

  93. val majkus

    I’m sorry; bad post; I’m leaving

    Think I’ll marry Barbie

  94. Viva

    It is time to explain to the public that the ALP are not only liars about their internal workings, they are also by far and away the most criminal and corrupt political party in the country, and especially in NSW.

    It’s not just a political party – it’s almost like a cult with tentacles everywhere.

  95. val majkus

    Do formidable politicians make these mistakes:
    Gillard/Swan/Rudd Govt. Top 50 Lemons
    1. Carbon Tax – “There will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead.”
    2. NBN – $50 billion but no cost-benefit analysis – will be a shambles bigger than AUSSAT.
    3. Building the Education Revolution – The school halls fiasco
    4. Home Insulation Plan (Pink Batts) – Dumped
    5. Citizens Assembly – Dumped
    6. Cash for Clunkers – Dumped
    7. Hospital Reform – Nothing
    8. Digital set-top boxes – Cheaper at Harvey Norman
    9. Emissions Trading Scheme – Abandoned
    10. Mining Tax – Continuing uncertainty for our miners as version 1 morphs into version 2 – and what other mad scheme could emerge.
    11. Livestock export ban to Indonesia – Over-reaction and harm to many people in the industry.
    12. Detention Centres – Riots & cost blow-outs – hunger strikes – professional self-harming – Millions of dollars of compensation claims in the courts – driven by taxpayer funded lawyers.
    13. East Timor ‘solution’ – Announced before agreed – never went anywhere – dead.
    14. Malaysia ‘solution’ WHAT A JOKE IT IS – who dreamt this up – we send back 800 and get 4,000 in return – only GreenLabor could agree to this – now bogged in the High Court.
    15. Manus Island ‘solution’ – no shame – simply recycling what the Howard Govt did.
    16. Computers in Schools – $1.4 billion blow out; less than half delivered
    17. Cutting Red Tape – 12,835 new regulations, only 58 repealed
    18. Asia Pacific Community – Another expensive Rudd frolic. Going nowhere
    19. Green Loans Program – Abandoned. Only 3.5% of promised loans delivered
    20. Solar Homes & Communities plan – Shut down after $534 million blow out
    21. Green Car Innovation Fund – Abandoned
    22. Solar Credits Scheme – Scaled back
    23. Green Start Program – Scrapped
    24. Retooling for Climate Change Program – Abolished
    25. Childcare Centres – Abandoned. 260 promised, only 38 delivered
    26. Take a “meat axe”‘ to the Public Service – 24,000 more public servants and growing!
    27. Murray Darling Basin Plan – back to the drawing board after a wet 2010
    28. 2020 Summit – Meaningless talkfest
    29. Tax Summit – Deferred and downgraded
    30. Population Policy – Sets no targets
    31. Fuel Watch – Abandoned
    32. Grocery Choice – Abandoned
    33. $900 Stimulus cheques – Sent to dead people and overseas residents
    34. Foreign Policy – In turmoil with Rudd running riot
    35. National Schools Solar Program – Closing two years early
    36. Solar Hot Water Rebate – Abandoned
    37. Oceanic Viking – Caved in – big win for taxpayer funded “Asylum-seeker Industry”
    38. GP Super Clinics – 64 promised, only 11 operational
    39. Defence Family Healthcare Clinics – 12 promised, none delivered
    40. Trade Training Centres – 2650 promised, 70 operational
    41. Bid for UN Security Council seat – An expensive Rudd frolic
    42. My School Website – Revamped but problems continue
    43. National Curriculum – States in uproar
    44. Small Business Superannuation Clearing House – 99% of small businesses reject it
    45. Indigenous Housing Program – way behind schedule – tangled in Govt and Indig red tape.
    46. Rudd Bank – Went nowhere
    47. Using cheap Chinese fabrics for ADF uniforms – Could not spell – ditched
    48. Innovation Ambassadors Program – junked
    49. Six Collins Class Submarines – none operational – too noisy when they do sortie – cost $6Billion – The Hon Kim Beazley, AC was the genius Defence Minister when they were purchased I seem to recall. And our current crop of genius’s are planning a “Son of Collin’s Class” fleet. Save us.
    50. Debt limit to be increased to $250 billion – to pay for all of the above and much more by us and our grandchildren.
    51. As at 26 Feb 2012 our borders are essentially open to any comers – and the main stream media (MSM) hardly mentions the issue now.

    Is a formidable political operator one who just keeps her/himself in power

    Sorry, competence is in my mind as being a prerequisite to a formidable operator

    Sorry Bad Post

  96. Tom

    Who do you believe: Newspoll 53 Lib – 47 Lab 2PP (taken during the weekend cyclone); Essential 56-44 (two-week average)? I tend to apportion more accuracy to the latter, especially when Newspoll also records the plunge in Gillard satisfaction rating from 32% to 26% Prediction: ALP (35%) primary will soon be much closer to Gillard’s personal approval. Anyone who says Lib and Lab are level-pegging is smoking bad hash. Remember also we are being brainwashed relentlessly, hourly by the love media, especially when we reflexively want to give the slapper a break on her one good day so far this year. TA needs to start his election run now with more policy cut-through. Whenever there’s a sniff of an election, ABC-Fairfax will go feral irrational against him: you won’t be able to hear a word he says above the abuse. This is the Third World media standard Australia now has.

  97. val majkus

    But Tom Gillard’s a formidable political operator, look at the post!

    Seems it’s just a matter of staying in power that makes you a formidable operator in the eyes of the media these days

    What school do political commentators go to these days (if any)

  98. blogstrop

    The Collins class submarines are not the fault of the ALP alone – the Defence chiefs (military and civilian) and their committees all had their opportunities to have a say before going for a unique “we can do something special” sub. This sort of capital ship programme is a joint responsibility, and takes ages to go through the departmental and government pipeline of approvals.
    But I agree with the general point about competence, and have no respect for dissemblers in politics, media or the public service.

  99. Tom

    Val, How many of your top 50 cockups are Gillard’s alone? How many more than one a month for the past 18 months? I think even Bolta was dazzled today; being a government critic is hard work when it involves breaching levels of incompetence not previously encountered. Just keep watching: the angel dust Gillard was showered with today is tomorrow’s dandruff.

  100. Viva

    I suspect some male commentators are secretly (or not so secretly) excited by a dominant woman. They feel a certain frisson when Julia wields the whip hand so to speak.

  101. val majkus

    Tom, understand what you say; Gillard can accept no responsibility for the Rudd years notwithstanding being the author for the dismantling of the Pacific Solution, a member of the cabinet of 4 during the Rudd years and then okey nothing else that occurred under the Rudd/Gillard watch which went south is her fault except for ….

    Nothing if you discount ministerial responsibility

    Which no longer seems to be an accroument to being a minister; in fact these days its ministerial irresponsibility – all put aside for the mantra ‘it’s the right time’

    Oh for the IQ of those commentators who think that makes a formidable political operator

  102. JC

    I suspect some male commentators are secretly (or not so secretly) excited by a dominant woman. They feel a certain frisson when Julia wields the whip hand so to speak.

    Really? Not here so much. Those emotions are mostly leftwing beta male type stuff.

  103. Chris M

    Dominant? For goodness sake there is nothing dominant about her, she is a concubine for starters and secondly cannot achieve anything on a daily basis without desperately lying.

    As dominant as an empty balloon, and less useful.

  104. val majkus

    I’m much more excited by the bloggie awards; I was a chosen nominee this year

  105. Tom

    I’m tossing up between gangster moll and brothel madam as the analogy that best fits the current leader.

  106. Gab

    Don’t be absurd, Tom.

    A brothel madam runs the business successfully.

  107. Gab

    Well done, Val. Which site?

  108. val majkus

    No Gab, I don’t have a blog; was a member of the nominee panel (don’t know how that is chosen) and that’s the process which comes before the judging

    There were sites for nomination by the panel in each category but I didn’t go past science and tech so that process is a popularity vote by the nominated panel members and then the judging process starts

  109. Tom

    Incidentally, Samuel J’s forecast of a Rudd victory would have been a much closer run thing in a democracy. I also hadn’t realised how brazen the Sussex Street thugs were in ensuring there was no secret ballot that was actually a secret ballot today. It looks to me as if the sheep in the marginals were totally intimidated.

  110. val majkus

    incidentally my comment above, the 51 mistakes, thanks to Warwick Hughes for that
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1367#comments
    see comments there by Peter Lang and Warwick Hughes

    Sorry got so mad at that judgement ‘formidable political operator’ that I copied over without attribution

    Fixed now

  111. Oh come on

    Should re-post on the relevant thread:

    I wonder how long Rudd’s going to be a happy little Vegemite on the back bench?

    Watch him twitch during the next Dullard fuckup (which is anticipated to start unfolding in approximately 4 minutes and 23 seconds).

    I reckon Rudd should have said quite openly “I only have one shot in the locker”.

  112. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    They feel a certain frisson when Julia wields the whip hand so to speak.

    Noooooo. Julia has no sex appeal to real men at all. JC is right. It’s only really Beta Males who hang around women like her. Julia would make a terrible dominatrix. Too screetchy. Too awkward. Unimaginative, not thrilling. Beta territory.

  113. Viva

    Not here so much. Those emotions are mostly leftwing beta male type stuff.

    I was actually thinking about the Bolta who seems to be falling under her spell somewhat all over algain.

  114. Viva

    It’s only really Beta Males who hang around women like her.

    Actually I’ve read that the men most likely to seek out the a dominatrix are those who wield authority and responsibility in their working lives and seek relief from that in a bit of occasional submission.

  115. Gab

    It’s only really Beta Males who hang around women like her.

    Yes, that’s true.

  116. Tom

    Viva, you must stop reading comics.

  117. Le Chiffre

    I doubt the Newspoll 53Lib-47ALP indicates a swell of support for Gillard.
    It was apparently taken from Thursday to Sunday, as you readers of this site will recall Rudd was running as favourite to lead the ALP on Wednesday. Once announcing his challenge he was at 4.20 on Thurs, 5.10 on Fri and eventually out 8.70 on Sunday by the odds displayed here.

    This indicates to me that it was the an initial swell of popular support for Rudd that boosted the ALP numbers. This would have faded over the remaining days as people increasingly realised he was not going to succeed.
    Hence an understandable overall limited boost for the ALP.

    Now with Rudd’s popular support gone the ALP polling should return to Gillard’s (lack of) popularity.
    We’ll see what the next one says.

  118. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Yep Viva, powerful men certainly feel the pressure. They either drink too much or head out for sex. Or come to their senses and go domestic. There’s a lot to be said for domesticity. 🙂

    If they really persist with a dominatrix they should see a psychologist. They are not on top of the job, it is, as it were, on top of them.

  119. daddy dave

    Actually I’ve read that the men most likely to seek out the a dominatrix are those who wield authority and responsibility in their working lives and seek relief from that in a bit of occasional submission.

    I suspect that’s a myth. Of course, there are always exceptions, but it seems implausible as a general rule of thumb.

  120. wreckage

    Actually I’ve read that the men most likely to seek out the a dominatrix are those who wield authority and responsibility in their working lives and seek relief from that in a bit of occasional submission.

    Proposed economic explanation: Kinks get charged a premium. Ordinary punters can’t afford them. Selection bias.

  121. michaelc58

    Those above who believe the latest rise in Labor vote in Newspoll is real, presumably believe that ripping a party apart is the way to win popularity and winning elections. Just stupid.

  122. daddy dave

    nice work, wreckage. That would explain the illusion. or to put it another way – most customers of dominatrix are wealthy and successful men, but the reverse doesn’t hold (ie most wealthy successful men aren’t their customers).

  123. michaelc58

    Julia Gillard is strong, formidable and competent the way Robert Mugabe is.

  124. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    formidable

    Gillard formidable?

    Paul Keating was formidable, and Gough Whitlam (have you ever sat and witnessed him perform on the small and big stage? Gillard similar??? Ha!!!), Neville Wran (as was his Premier’s Department head Gerry Gleeson – he was dead set frightening!), Charlie Ferguson and a few others.

    I saw Michael Kirby as head of the Law Reform Commission when I was 27ish in the late ’70s. He would have been about forty and “formidable”. Later, taking corporate matters before him as President of the Court of Appeal in the late ’80s-90s, he was even more so. He was “formidable” alright – literally the smartest bloke in the room by the length of the straight (didn’t prevent him inventing stuff in his judgements at times).

    How in the sweet jeepers can you attribute “formidable” to a union hack who has somehow managed to scratch and float her way to the surface of the most mediocre pool of Labor politicians in living memory. The woman is merely more unscrupulous and more deceitful than the feeble morons around her. And she is barely bloody literate.

    Go and read Rod Cavalier on the lousy gene pool from which Labor draws, and Beasley Senior, and Button. Learn your Labor history before inventing characteristics that demonstrably do not exist.

    Struth – you’re easily impressed!

  125. Oh come on

    Unions to Dullard: Congratulations! Now where’s our pork?

  126. adrian

    that newspoll is rouge. i would read anything into it.

  127. The result has nothing to do with Gillard’s competence. She remains an incompetent moron.

    The fact is everyone in the Labor party hates Rudd because he is a psychotic workaholic boss from hell, and they would rather resign from parliament than work under him again.

  128. I just read this blog post title as

    Do not sell Julia Gillard shorts

    I was about to agree.

  129. No more of those cheap low-cut polyester camisole shells, either. While we’re at it.

  130. murph

    53-47 is the Rudd4PM dreamers preemptively supporting the ALP in hope of St Kevin’s return. Now that he’s been consigned to history, it’ll dry up really quick. Expect a large drop in support for teh ALP in the next month.

  131. Oh come on

    Yobbo: that marks him out as perhaps the world’s worst boss ever, considering that the vast majority of ALP MPs are pretty much unemployable and certainly wouldn’t be able to command anywhere near the 6 figure salary a backbencher receives…

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  133. Token

    I’ve corrected the text for you Viva so you can learn for the future.

    Actually I’ve read that the impotent men most likely to seek out the a dominatrix are those who wield authority and responsibility in their working lives and seek relief from that in a bit of occasional submission.

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  135. Winston SMITH

    “Do not sell Julia Gillard shorts.
    No more of those cheap low-cut polyester camisole shells, either.”

    Do you bloody well mind, spot?
    Some of us are eating. Or at least drinking coffee.

  136. m0nty

    I’d agree that Newspoll is just one data point and you can’t draw conclusions on it.

    There was a poll of polls feature on Insiders on the weekend which summed up the situation rather neatly.

    ANDREW CATSARAS: Well since the last election there’s been three phases in the polling. From the election to the end of 2010, not a lot happened it was basically the status quo. Then in February 2011 when the Government made the announcement that it was going to price carbon, the ALP vote slid dramatically and the Coalition vote increased dramatically.

    And that continued right up until the middle of the year when in July the Government actually made its carbon price policy announcement. And then since that time, the gap between the two parties has narrowed from the 16 points that it was in the middle of the year to the eight points it currently is now.

    It will take a month or two to figure out whether the respill represents a meaningful inflection point.

  137. Nato

    Voter apathy could stand a large part of it.

    “I work in a factory, so I vote Labor” combined with news sourced from five minutes each hour on the FM radio station of choice.

  138. Viva

    Viva, you must stop reading comics.

    lol – they’re called graphic novels these days Tom.

  139. John

    Lady Macbeth strikes well with Machiavellian politics

  140. Samuel J

    She sells herself short Steve – just look at the Carr affair

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