The first Gallup daily tracking poll of the general election season is out, and here’s the key number: Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 39 percent among Independents. That pushes him to a 47 to 45 percent lead overall.
There is also this which also gives me some hope about a possible change:
historically, polling below 50% in the first trial heat has been an ominous indicator for incumbent presidents. Obama’s approval rating in the latest daily tracking poll is 45%.
A statistical tie at the moment, and it will matter state by state and not nationally overall. But rather this at this stage than the opposite.