This is why Mitt Romney is telling Obama to start packing:
The first Gallup daily tracking poll of the general election season is out, and here’s the key number: Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 39 percent among Independents. That pushes him to a 47 to 45 percent lead overall.
There is also this which also gives me some hope about a possible change:
historically, polling below 50% in the first trial heat has been an ominous indicator for incumbent presidents. Obama’s approval rating in the latest daily tracking poll is 45%.
A statistical tie at the moment, and it will matter state by state and not nationally overall. But rather this at this stage than the opposite.
Quoting CL from the open forum just now:
Also, your first link is missing a colon.
m0nty
17 Apr 12 at 9:21 am
Sounds terribly overconfident of Romney, but if he knows something we don’t, it might be the right thing to do. Obama must realise he’s not facing an old man like McCain who might only have been good for one term anyway; Romney’s in for the (political) kill.
perturbed
17 Apr 12 at 10:49 am
Bit of talk about that Romney is considering Cathy McMorris Rodgers as Veep.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathy_McMorris_Rodgers
It seems that the childish Australian neo-convention that leadership teams must mirror the gender balance of a news-desk is becoming a norm.
C.L.
17 Apr 12 at 10:54 am
The gallup poll has a huge sample, over 2200 people
adrian
17 Apr 12 at 12:00 pm
Ignore any poll that counts anything other than likely voters. That CNN poll probably included homeless people and teenagers, which is why Romney-haters latched onto it. The credible polls show Romney ahead by two.
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:12 pm
Are they likely voters or just randoms? And there seems to be something funny about the numbers – 14% of TEA Partiers are going to vote for Obama? Bollocks.
CL: I remember reading an article about this after the election of O – that we’d never again see two white guys on a Presidential ticket. Never say never but it does seem mostly correct.
Oh come on
17 Apr 12 at 12:13 pm
It’s a rubbish poll. Nobody pays any attention to CNN.
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:16 pm
Hardly.
It’s an incredibly diverse country of 320 million.
There are only perhaps 14 states of Obummer’s 57 that will decide the election.
JamesK
17 Apr 12 at 12:16 pm
The credible polling firms – not shoddy, innumerate Romney-hating agencies – of course show Romney leading:
http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-overtakes-obama-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:18 pm
Allahpundit on that CNN poll, FWIW.
sdog
17 Apr 12 at 12:19 pm
Rasmussen shows Romney up by 5. Perhaps both Rasmussen and Gallup are pushing the MOE and the real figure is somewhere in between – about 3.5. Which is a very good start by Romney.
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:22 pm
compared to the other polls it is huge. most are arond the 900 mark.
adrian
17 Apr 12 at 12:23 pm
If you haven’t already seen it, watch the short clip on polling from He Of The Colourful Shirts And Penchant For Toes. It’s instructive.
This is an interesting one on why Obama’s not going to win, too. Morris says it’s about the undecideds, who always strongly break against the incumbent. Sounds plausible.
Oh come on
17 Apr 12 at 12:24 pm
GOP thumping Dems on the generic congressional ballot by 10:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
Lots of positive, life-affirming and non-hateful signs coming from the US.
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:29 pm
2200 is meaningless.
Is it representative and of what population?
What are the percentages of self-identified Rep, Dem and ind and does it coorerlate with the population of interest?
Age, sex, likely voter only, the country as a whole or just the swing states?
JamesK
17 Apr 12 at 12:32 pm
Or even correlate
JamesK
17 Apr 12 at 12:32 pm
JamesK, don’t worry about Gallup. The most credible and accurate agency is Rasmussen. They show Romney ahead.
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:36 pm
..by 5%
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 12:36 pm
So, where has the Rock Chopping herd turned now that Ricky has been defrocked?
Peter Patton
17 Apr 12 at 12:46 pm
I believe they’ve always been behind Romney.
dover_beach
17 Apr 12 at 12:56 pm
It’s worth noting that all the best future prospects in the GOP are Catholics. Ryan, Rubio, Jindal, Christie, Jeb Bush (a convert, like Oscar Wilde). It’s been taken over, to a considerable extent – like the Liberal Party. Interesting.
C.L.
17 Apr 12 at 1:08 pm
Catholics have become tired of voting for people who hate them and are shifting gradually to the right. I think it’s a welcome trend. Next up will be the Jews, hopefully.
Fisky
17 Apr 12 at 1:13 pm
Romney to Obama: ‘Start Packing’.
C.L.
17 Apr 12 at 1:20 pm
You really are enjoying stirring, aren’t you Peter.
So it may be effective, what does Rock Chopper actually mean?
Token
17 Apr 12 at 1:21 pm
It’s an outlaw motorcycle gang from memory.
Infidel Tiger
17 Apr 12 at 1:22 pm
Well, we know that Captain Catholic was right behind Ricky. Stuck like glue. Ricky had to call security.
Peter Patton
17 Apr 12 at 1:25 pm
Rock Chopper is a reference (RC) to Irish-Catholic convicts. It was meant as an insult but Catholics didn’t see it that way – which is why you can see Irish-Catholic convicts in stained glass at St Mary’s.
Kind of like ‘insulting’ a WWII veteran as a “Rat of Tobruk.”
C.L.
17 Apr 12 at 1:29 pm
Token the “RC” kinda gives it away.
Peter Patton
17 Apr 12 at 1:31 pm
No Sergeant Sodomy, I supported protestant Rick Perry and then protestant Herman Cain. You’re just miffed there isn’t a fellow turd burglar in the race. I encourage you to write a ‘paper’ about it as part of your mature-age MA ‘degree.’
C.L.
17 Apr 12 at 1:34 pm
Intereting CL, my Catholicism comes from the continent and though I went to school with Irish catholics I don’t recall the term.
Token
17 Apr 12 at 1:44 pm
Peter, your unprovoked sledges at Catholics are getting increasingly lame.
Obviously you have a beef with the micks. So just come right out and address it. Or don’t, and drop it. Your guerrilla sniping is becoming tedious.
Oh come on
17 Apr 12 at 1:46 pm
Marc A. Thiessen, Wa-Po: Romney is walking into Obama’s ‘secrecy’ attack
Romney is not politically adept and is not a core open-book conservative.
If he’s not careful he’ll become the centre of the campaign.
Obummer needs to be
JamesK
17 Apr 12 at 2:08 pm
Looking at American political polling, I think three points need to be made:-
1. Rasmussen should be watched as they nearly always cover ‘Likely voters’ (and have a good final poll record anyway).
2. Tracking polls are good value (averaging multiple poll results);
3. Check to see (and take account of ) if there is or is not a breakdown of what percentage of the sample was registered Democrat or Republican (there can be significant differences in some polls) and when absent, withhold judgement until result backed by other polls..
M Ryutin
17 Apr 12 at 4:29 pm
Did someone say HOPE and CHANGE?
south
17 Apr 12 at 8:13 pm
The idea that Romney will shut down entire government depts gives me a woody
Irving J
17 Apr 12 at 8:15 pm
Peter seems to be sliding downhill into nastiness and snark. This happened once before about 4 years ago. He got banned, and it seemed to give him a reboot.
When he returned he was fresh, entertaining, good-natured and stayed on topic.
Time for another reboot, Peter?
daddy dave
17 Apr 12 at 8:32 pm