Amongst independents Romney 45-39 – leads overall 47-45

This is why Mitt Romney is telling Obama to start packing:

The first Gallup daily tracking poll of the general election season is out, and here’s the key number: Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 39 percent among Independents. That pushes him to a 47 to 45 percent lead overall.

There is also this which also gives me some hope about a possible change:

historically, polling below 50% in the first trial heat has been an ominous indicator for incumbent presidents. Obama’s approval rating in the latest daily tracking poll is 45%.

A statistical tie at the moment, and it will matter state by state and not nationally overall. But rather this at this stage than the opposite.

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36 Responses to Amongst independents Romney 45-39 – leads overall 47-45

  1. m0nty

    Quoting CL from the open forum just now:

    Mitt fail?

    CNN poll has Obama in an unassailable lead.

    Also, your first link is missing a colon.

  2. Sounds terribly overconfident of Romney, but if he knows something we don’t, it might be the right thing to do. Obama must realise he’s not facing an old man like McCain who might only have been good for one term anyway; Romney’s in for the (political) kill.

  3. C.L.

    Bit of talk about that Romney is considering Cathy McMorris Rodgers as Veep.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathy_McMorris_Rodgers

    It seems that the childish Australian neo-convention that leadership teams must mirror the gender balance of a news-desk is becoming a norm.

  4. adrian

    The gallup poll has a huge sample, over 2200 people

  5. Fisky

    Ignore any poll that counts anything other than likely voters. That CNN poll probably included homeless people and teenagers, which is why Romney-haters latched onto it. The credible polls show Romney ahead by two.

  6. Oh come on

    Are they likely voters or just randoms? And there seems to be something funny about the numbers – 14% of TEA Partiers are going to vote for Obama? Bollocks.

    CL: I remember reading an article about this after the election of O – that we’d never again see two white guys on a Presidential ticket. Never say never but it does seem mostly correct.

  7. Fisky

    It’s a rubbish poll. Nobody pays any attention to CNN.

  8. JamesK

    The gallup poll has a huge sample, over 2200 people

    Hardly.

    It’s an incredibly diverse country of 320 million.

    There are only perhaps 14 states of Obummer’s 57 that will decide the election.

  9. Fisky

    The credible polling firms – not shoddy, innumerate Romney-hating agencies – of course show Romney leading:

    http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-overtakes-obama-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/

  10. Fisky

    Rasmussen shows Romney up by 5. Perhaps both Rasmussen and Gallup are pushing the MOE and the real figure is somewhere in between – about 3.5. Which is a very good start by Romney.

  11. adrian
    The gallup poll has a huge sample, over 2200 people
    Hardly.

    It’s an incredibly diverse country of 320 million.

    There are only perhaps 14 states of Obummer’s 57 that will decide the election.

    compared to the other polls it is huge. most are arond the 900 mark.

  12. Oh come on

    If you haven’t already seen it, watch the short clip on polling from He Of The Colourful Shirts And Penchant For Toes. It’s instructive.

    This is an interesting one on why Obama’s not going to win, too. Morris says it’s about the undecideds, who always strongly break against the incumbent. Sounds plausible.

  13. Fisky

    GOP thumping Dems on the generic congressional ballot by 10:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

    Lots of positive, life-affirming and non-hateful signs coming from the US.

  14. JamesK

    2200 is meaningless.

    Is it representative and of what population?

    What are the percentages of self-identified Rep, Dem and ind and does it coorerlate with the population of interest?

    Age, sex, likely voter only, the country as a whole or just the swing states?

  15. Fisky

    JamesK, don’t worry about Gallup. The most credible and accurate agency is Rasmussen. They show Romney ahead.

  16. Peter Patton

    So, where has the Rock Chopping herd turned now that Ricky has been defrocked?

  17. dover_beach

    I believe they’ve always been behind Romney.

  18. C.L.

    It’s worth noting that all the best future prospects in the GOP are Catholics. Ryan, Rubio, Jindal, Christie, Jeb Bush (a convert, like Oscar Wilde). It’s been taken over, to a considerable extent – like the Liberal Party. Interesting.

  19. Fisky

    Catholics have become tired of voting for people who hate them and are shifting gradually to the right. I think it’s a welcome trend. Next up will be the Jews, hopefully.

  20. Token

    So, where has the Rock Chopping herd turned now that Ricky has been defrocked?

    You really are enjoying stirring, aren’t you Peter.

    So it may be effective, what does Rock Chopper actually mean?

  21. Infidel Tiger

    what does Rock Chopper actually mean?

    It’s an outlaw motorcycle gang from memory.

  22. Peter Patton

    I believe they’ve always been behind Romney.

    Well, we know that Captain Catholic was right behind Ricky. Stuck like glue. Ricky had to call security.

  23. C.L.

    Rock Chopper is a reference (RC) to Irish-Catholic convicts. It was meant as an insult but Catholics didn’t see it that way – which is why you can see Irish-Catholic convicts in stained glass at St Mary’s.

    Kind of like ‘insulting’ a WWII veteran as a “Rat of Tobruk.”

  24. Peter Patton

    Token the “RC” kinda gives it away.

  25. C.L.

    No Sergeant Sodomy, I supported protestant Rick Perry and then protestant Herman Cain. You’re just miffed there isn’t a fellow turd burglar in the race. I encourage you to write a ‘paper’ about it as part of your mature-age MA ‘degree.’

  26. Token

    Intereting CL, my Catholicism comes from the continent and though I went to school with Irish catholics I don’t recall the term.

  27. Oh come on

    Peter, your unprovoked sledges at Catholics are getting increasingly lame.

    Obviously you have a beef with the micks. So just come right out and address it. Or don’t, and drop it. Your guerrilla sniping is becoming tedious.

  28. JamesK

    Marc A. Thiessen, Wa-Po: Romney is walking into Obama’s ‘secrecy’ attack

    Republicans need to ask themselves: Why does Romney seem to be going out of his way to help Obama raise such questions?

    Romney is not politically adept and is not a core open-book conservative.

    If he’s not careful he’ll become the centre of the campaign.

    Obummer needs to be

  29. M Ryutin

    Looking at American political polling, I think three points need to be made:-

    1. Rasmussen should be watched as they nearly always cover ‘Likely voters’ (and have a good final poll record anyway).
    2. Tracking polls are good value (averaging multiple poll results);
    3. Check to see (and take account of ) if there is or is not a breakdown of what percentage of the sample was registered Democrat or Republican (there can be significant differences in some polls) and when absent, withhold judgement until result backed by other polls..

  30. south

    There is also this which also gives me some hope about a possible change:

    Did someone say HOPE and CHANGE?

  31. The idea that Romney will shut down entire government depts gives me a woody

  32. daddy dave

    Peter seems to be sliding downhill into nastiness and snark. This happened once before about 4 years ago. He got banned, and it seemed to give him a reboot.

    When he returned he was fresh, entertaining, good-natured and stayed on topic.

    Time for another reboot, Peter?

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