Phil Coorey is speculating about a Rudd prime ministership.
SUPPORTERS of Julia Gillard are growing nervous about a spring leadership offensive, believing the Prime Minister could lose the majority support of caucus if the introduction of the carbon tax on July 1 and the billions in compensation is not the ”game-changer” the government is banking on.
…
There has been an increase in leadership chatter recently while Ms Gillard has been overseas, and one of Ms Gillard’s key supporters acknowledged yesterday that backers of Kevin Rudd were ”circling”.
I can’t see how this would assist the ALP in any way. The single issue killing them is the carbon tax – due at the end of the month. It can’t be postponed or modified now without huge political pain. Rudd may have had some chance of success had he succeeded with his challenge in February – but not now.
For Rudd regaining the leadership would be about redemption and revenge. That’s fine; but I’m not sure that would benefit either the party or the electorate.
Then there is a prospect of an early election.
Strategists on both sides also concede that a leadership change would most likely prompt a quick election and this, in itself, was acting as a deterrent for MPs who were wavering but did not relish the prospect of an election this year.
I’ve argued this point before – we should think of the election as an option.
Factors that make options valuable include the time to expiry and volatility. Right now the time to expiry is over two years – the last election was less than a year ago. Nonetheless it looks like the government would be wiped out at any election held any time soon. That is because there is no volatility in public opinion – support for the government is a one-way bet, down. But the government is intending to shock the system – the introduction of the carbon tax might introduce volatility into the mix and then the option to call an election at will becomes very valuable. That combined with the time-value of options suggests that an election (barring unexpected by-elections) will be as late as possible.
Against that is the argument that the longer the government waits to go to the polls the bigger the wipe-out. Maybe – but it doesn’t usually pay to exercise options until expiry. In the meantime Centrebet has the Coalition at $1.15 to win the next election.
I’ve read the bonehead coorey article and there isn’t anything in it that we didn’t already know.
There’s two minutes of my life wasted…
I simply can’t see dullard taking laybore into the next election, nor can I see these clowns somehow managing to go full term.
The ensuing wipeout has to be prevented for the lobodomy pardee to survive.
Damage limitation, Sinc – too many of these of these useless destructive criminal parasites would be out on their asses and unable to show their stupid ugly faces in public again.
The push to bring back ruff will inevitably gather greater momentum.
As the mole has stated, expect a leadership change before the year is out and a subsequent early election.
Rabz
21 Jun 12 at 8:31 am
Come on Rabz, the man has come down with a severe case of Gina fever, he has been too busy changing his underpants 3 times a day. Therefore he has to regurgitate the same column he’s presented ump-teen times.
Coorey is the type of rat who knows that once Rudd is gone he is going to be more friendless than Milne after Costello retired.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 8:40 am
Anne
21 Jun 12 at 8:56 am
We do hope Anne as we need a vibrant 2 party democracy with 2 mature parties (and that rules out the Green-slimers).
You would’ve thought that ’96 would teach them something, but all it did is allowed more union reps, union lawyers and hacks as they control the preselection process.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 9:03 am
Where would Mr Swan go if they brought back kevni. They can’t move the world’s greatest treasurer out of his treasurer job. did’t he say he’d rather eat s**t than work with Kevin again, or said he was a psychopath or something. what a circus it would be, but fun.
candy
21 Jun 12 at 9:08 am
As a punter, I’m searching my memory cells for any hidden piece of information that could tell me how it was theoretically possible for Labor to win the next election. Well, it would take something equivalent to war and the suspension of democracy. Every policy change now will create a backlash if you think about it so they can only change the leadership. Are people dumb enough to buy a product they hate in a different box? Nuh. We’re just drumming our fingers ’til they ring the bell. Don’t forget: you did this to yourselves, retards. It’s all your own work.
Tom
21 Jun 12 at 9:13 am
Good luck getting any of the prime suspects to admit it, of course…
Rabz
21 Jun 12 at 9:19 am
Gillard will go full term no matter what, I guarantee it. Any bookie running a market on that?
Death to the Greens
dan
21 Jun 12 at 9:20 am
Dan is that a ‘you know what’ threat?
val majkus
21 Jun 12 at 9:21 am
Rudd cannot and won’t come back.
Swan and most of the frontbench would have to resign given what they said about him at the last spill.
C.L.
21 Jun 12 at 9:22 am
I’ve been doubting the logic behind resurrecting ruff as well, but I fail to see how those idiots spitting the dummy and going to the back bench would be a bad thing.
If they resign, there’s an instant election anyway – ruff will go straight to the polls in any event to capitalise on the dead cat bounce.
Otherwise it’s a sacrificial lamb – Crean?
dullard will not be the leader laybore take to the next election.
Rabz
21 Jun 12 at 9:29 am
I’ve been saying for some time, Labor’s prospects depend on a few matters not within their control: that the world does not have another GFC, and Europe does not collapse in a heap; the China slowdown does not become a meltdown; a hot summer in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere (and a record Arctic ice low – which is looking a distinct possibility at the moment) which may revive popular concern about climate change.
It is a shocking sign for Labor that there are parliamentarians in it still willing to talk about moving back to Rudd. They are completely stupid if they thing any policy with “tax” in it can come to be accepted overnight. Look at the polling around the introduction of the GST – I am pretty sure it took a long time for people to get over it.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 9:48 am
Labor MPs know they will be out of office at the next election. They are now looking for ways to avoid a Qld/NSW scale wipeout.
Coorey might be on to something. Rudd is a proven vote winner. If they bring him back, go to an election soon after and lose less severely than if they keep Gillard, that might be worth it.
They hate Rudd and wouldn’t retain him after the election.
DavidLeyonhjelm
21 Jun 12 at 9:50 am
What about the tactical timing of calling the election in regard to keeping the Senate in ALP control as is for as long as possible?
I recall that if the election is called after mid-August 2013, then the HoR and the Senate will be part of the same election.
At the next Senate election 40 seats will be contested. Assuming of those 40, Xenophon gets re-elected, and NT and ACT retain the 2 ALP, 2 LNP distribution. That would leave the LNP with 20 seats and ALP/Greens with 21. Surely with current public sentiment, the LNP would be likely to score at least 2 more seats than the ALP.
If my assumptions are correct, then JG or the puppet masters might just call an early election, albeit only 3-4 months.
MattyB
21 Jun 12 at 9:55 am
Thank you, Planet ShitFerBrains.
Tom
21 Jun 12 at 9:57 am
I read somewhere that the benefit to the ALP of an early election is that because its so early only the lower house would go to the polls. So the ALP get wiped out as expected but with the Greens keep power in the senate.
Abbott gets given a while to shoot himself in the foot in government (it’d take a while for him to organise a double dissolution if he wants it). And perhaps even if they let the carbon tax drop and people see that prices still keep going up that they then won’t get totally wiped in the separate senate election next year.
Chris
21 Jun 12 at 9:58 am
Tony Abbott could have a brain fade and root a chicken during question time. Gillard could start squirting beer from her nipples.
Nothing else.
Infidel Tiger
21 Jun 12 at 10:01 am
I wonder what the odds are for Malcolm Turnbull being Opposition Leader next election. He’s quite popular, you know.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 10:03 am
Actually he’s especially popular with beta male apron-wearers, you know
JamesK
21 Jun 12 at 10:07 am
The pain of the carbon tax has not yet been felt in the community. Jobs _will_ be lost in the coming year and no amount of threatened penalties will stop people saying it.
Listen to this interesting discussion AJ had with a few business owners, most startling is the rise in cost of refrigeration and medical gases. As noted, a refill of these “planet killers” can go from $15k to over $100k due to the job destroying tax.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 10:07 am
SoB, your trolling goes into over-drive to distract from certain topics. Do you get a bonus for certain work?
Token
21 Jun 12 at 10:08 am
The longer this goes for the greater the wipeout. Victoria is running on reduced generation since the floods. Peak demand prices are through the roof. This will be passed on to consumers in the months to come to recoup the energy retailers losses. Now name one minister in the Labor party that could explain away these rising bills as not being part of the Carbon Tax. If they were smart (ha ha ha) they would go to the polls before this shitstorm hits.
Holden
21 Jun 12 at 10:09 am
Steve – If you looked at the last poll, Turnbull is popular with Labor voters.
Abbott was ahead in LNP voterland, and if you hadn’t noticed yet there seem to be slightly more LNP voters than ALP ones.
Pollies breathe in polls like we do air. They know quite well that 63% said no to the carbon tax in the Lowy poll. Backing Turnbull, who keeps on spouting ETS silliness every time he opens his mouth, would be suicidal for the LNP, especially for all the new MP’s when they get in.
Bruce
21 Jun 12 at 10:09 am
$3.75. That is the biggest unders I’ve seen in a market for some time. There’s more chance you’ll embrace liberty and manliness.
Infidel Tiger
21 Jun 12 at 10:12 am
I wouldn’t bet on it.
Gab
21 Jun 12 at 10:13 am
Bruce – from the last Nielsen poll:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-bad-but-labor-is-worse-says-poll-20120603-1zq7m.html#ixzz1yNkhY0ls
Abbott is ahead of Turnbull in LNP voters by 1%.
It’s an equal split, in other words.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 10:14 am
Anyway – Labor needs to look resolute and determined behind the right policies. Always looking at strategies that are purely politically driven (changing leaders, an early loss now to retain control of the Senate) makes you look uninterested in policies that you have previously sold as vital.
As I have said before, Gillard does a good job at doing this; she is being undermined by ninnies in the party.
And John Quiggin is a touch mad on this topic too.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 10:18 am
It’ll be two years anniversary since the backstabbing in a few days time. I wonder how the ALP will reflect on that.
candy
21 Jun 12 at 10:25 am
ShitFerBrains earns his money again for derailing the thread. How much money, Steve? We’d love to know the going rate for government propaganda trolls.
Tom
21 Jun 12 at 10:26 am
Umm, Gillard connived to replace Rudd as leader, she also convinced Rudd to drop his cabon pricing regime.
But, according to you, Gillard is good at avoiding purely politically driven strategies. This is of course completely at odds with the facts.
Matt
21 Jun 12 at 10:27 am
Sorry Steve, I was in the margin of error (which means wrong).
But Essential found 53% of Greens preferred Turnbull and 3% Abbott. To me that says it all.
Bruce
21 Jun 12 at 10:27 am
hahahahaha as if Greenslimers and Laboroddities will vote LNP of Turnbull is leader…hahahaha! Funniest thing I’ve heard today.
Gab
21 Jun 12 at 10:29 am
Matt: Gillard was mistaken to do that.
To do it again (for example, by Rudd proposing a softening of the carbon price) would be repeating a mistake.
Tom: apart from a bit of fun by mentioning Turnbull as a contender, it’s ludicrous to suggest I’ve derailed the thread.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 10:35 am
Labor would have to take three seats off the Liberals and the Liberals take none off Labor in the next election for Labor to win. As Windsor and Oakeshotte are definately gone.
At absolute worst case scenario there is still no way on gods green earth that Labor is going to pickup three more seats.
If just QLD goes landslide LNP and Windsor and Oakeshotte lose their seats and everyone else in Australia lost their minds for a moment and voted exactly the same as they did in 2010, Labor would have a 5-8 seat loss.
twostix
21 Jun 12 at 10:35 am
“Turnbull is popular with Labor voters.”
What about Turnbull as the leader of the next Opposition?
Rafe
21 Jun 12 at 10:36 am
Perhaps Turnbull should swap sides now, Rafe. That solves the Gillard replacement issue and will ensure the majority of voters will vote Labor back in at next Fed election.
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Gab
21 Jun 12 at 10:38 am
Lol you keep hanging on to that hope true believer.
twostix
21 Jun 12 at 10:39 am
Mr Rudd being brought back is more righting the wrong, than another mistake.
won’t happen anyway, too many ministers have said vicious things about him for anyone to take ALP seriously. she’s still superglued to her PM’s chair.
candy
21 Jun 12 at 10:40 am
Wouldn’t he love to be opposition leader of another party. LOL.
I’m sure Abbott & the Libs would enjoy pummelling him in parliament day after day.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 10:42 am
SoB, keep holding the faith.
In 20 years time climate change will be cool when it goes retro, and you can get your Kevin 07 and doom-mongering T-shirts out and be the coolest dude in the nursing home.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 10:43 am
Your ideological war against science will be long defeated before then, Token.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 10:47 am
An excellent idea Rafem, then the Libs could get on with the Reconstuctionof our Ravaged Country..Let the money grubbing “merchant Wanker .
Borisgodunov
21 Jun 12 at 10:54 am
You wouldn’t know what science was if it jumped up and bit you on the left ball. But you love the “climate change/global warming/sustainability” political doctrine because it’s the left’s new and only battering ram against capitalism.
Scoreboard, fuckwit!
Tom
21 Jun 12 at 10:54 am
Good point, Steve.
Gillard could be saved by the arctic ice flow.
Great analysis.
C.L.
21 Jun 12 at 10:57 am
SoB, as I’ve told you many times, if some real science actually arrives to back up the cooked stats by Hansen & co and all those computer models, we are screwed, as China and the emerging economies will not agree to anything.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 10:58 am
This all depends on how climate change affects things in the next 5 – 10 years. Enough droughts, floods, and heat waves affecting developing countries, and they have an incentive to take it very seriously.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 11:03 am
A thread about Gillard’s leadership woes gets derailed by climate change garbage.
Gab
21 Jun 12 at 11:04 am
Only because people here refuse to believe that people are influenced in their view of climate change by hot weather.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 11:06 am
They said 5 or ten years ago that it would be “too late to act” in 5 or ten years. Like all doomsday cults, when the space ship doesn’t arrive, they proffer a new Mayan death date.
C.L.
21 Jun 12 at 11:07 am
Be fair, Gab, the two are linked. Because, by deft application of a carbon tax, Australia’s leader is adjusting the earth’s thermostat to solve climate change, thus securing the leadership of her party, her country and the world.
In StevelandTM, at least – population at least two.
James in Melbourne
21 Jun 12 at 11:11 am
Hey, take your complaint to Tony Abbott if you’re so unhappy with the idea of any action. Why aren’t you pushing for some dill of an outright Liberal climate change denier to become leader?
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 11:13 am
It’s OK, Steve.
Abbott’s only pretending.
You know, like Gillard on gay marriage.
He really doesn’t give a crap.
C.L.
21 Jun 12 at 11:17 am
This is why the only honest position to take regarding catastropic climate disaster is extreme skepticism. CAGW is only the latest in a long list of alarmism about impending doooooomsday events all of which failed to eventuate. Never mind, move onto the next one …
The only advantage CAGW has with the earlier scares is that it came along at a time when the left were looking for a new avenue of attack against bourgeois capitalism with communism having demonstrably failed in that regard.
Matt
21 Jun 12 at 11:17 am
Steve – The temperature is due to fall by 1 or 1.5 C. Solar double minimum & PDO flip. Even NASA acknowledges this. You can already see the trend in the last decade. It will be very difficult for the CAGW proponents to keep going when that happens.
The parrot is stiff, you’ll not sell it to me boyo.
Bruce
21 Jun 12 at 11:18 am
“Time is not on our side,” says Bar-king-at-the Moon, at Rio.
“Tuck, tock, please save the plenit,” says some Kiwi teenager.
Who could fail to be convinced?
James in Melbourne
21 Jun 12 at 11:21 am
And she actually said
Hilarious bringing out that old meme.
Gab
21 Jun 12 at 11:23 am
She doesn’t have any children.
C.L.
21 Jun 12 at 11:24 am
Are you quoting Gillard, Gab? I posted another howler on the OT.
Tom
21 Jun 12 at 11:26 am
No, Tom, the teenager James mentions.
Gab
21 Jun 12 at 11:30 am
Bruce: what’s the bet that when your prediction fails, you won’t change your tune that it’s still all stuff and nonsense? I’m putting no money on that one.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 11:30 am
Seriously, why would Rudd come back?
Now the Carbon Tax can’t be unwound, if he took the lead of the party he would be remember as the man that got smashed by the electorate, for a party that knifed him 2 years ago.
The only logic I can see is that another candidate is using him as a stalking horse, whereby once it is clear Gillard is rolled the candidate who is from the “next generation” who is not on tape saying there will be no carbon tax can take the crown.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 11:31 am
Looks like a graph to me
dan
21 Jun 12 at 11:41 am
I think Rudd may be vain enough to think he can turn it around; and after all, polling shows Queenslanders are particularly silly about him.
And he does have the likes of John Quiggin still holding a candle for him, complaining that all Julia has done is finish ideas initiated by Rudd.
He doesn’t mention much the dud, off the cuff, ideas that came and went with Rudd (such as carbon capture money, the various “watches” and the poor and rushed implementation of the insulation scheme.)
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 11:47 am
I’ve started a remove Abbott campaign. He’s useless bike courier of mediocrity as far as I’m concerned.
Infidel Tiger
21 Jun 12 at 11:50 am
Gillard’s wikipedia entry will read: Gillard never enjoyed one single day of popularity.
Lysander Spooner
21 Jun 12 at 11:58 am
Who’s your preferred leader, IT? Bronwyn Bishop, or one of the other intellectual powerhouses of the climate change do nothing movement?
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 12:00 pm
I don’t think there’s anyone in the LNP who would satisfy my unique brand of politics. I’ll have to nominate myself.
My carbon abatement method involves a guillotine, trebuchet and the town square.
Infidel Tiger
21 Jun 12 at 12:06 pm
Where’s SteveC? I need some time off…
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 12:06 pm
There are a huge number of people with way more smarts than you in that group. The clumsy and mysogenistic attempted smear of Bishop does you no credit, but we’re sort of used to that.
Take some time off … a couple of years for starters.
blogstrop
21 Jun 12 at 12:35 pm
Coorey is a Rudd man isn’t he? Gets all the scoops so he must be batting for his man. I don’t think the public even care about leadership changes anymore. People are just looking forward to 10 years of Tory rule now.
The MRET has fucked Labor and if you knew the policy and how it altered the energy market it was always going to be the case.
Sean
21 Jun 12 at 12:36 pm
I know, spelling!
blogstrop
21 Jun 12 at 12:36 pm
They say Glen Milne was too dependent on Costello, Coorey & Hartcher will be in similar trouble once Rudd is gone and Labor is in the wilderness for 12-15 years.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 12:39 pm
Why aren’t you naming them?
Bronwyn was prominent at the carbon tax rallies, if I recall correctly. She’s closer to the average of the people who attended too.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 12:41 pm
average age….
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 12:42 pm
…do you mean 15 years younger than you and the Shut Up! crew.
Token
21 Jun 12 at 12:47 pm
What’s the deal with Hartcher dressing like a banker?
Tosser
dan
21 Jun 12 at 12:51 pm
Global warming: second thoughts of an environmentalist
Fritz Vahrenholt, one of Germany’s earliest green energy investors, is not convinced that humanity is causing catastrophic global warming.
JamesK
21 Jun 12 at 1:01 pm
Dan – It should look like this, or better still this. Unfortunately that site can’t do non-linear trending. Nor can Excel, which is why Spencer uses a polynomial.
The same underlying signal appears in the AMO, PDO and ENSO, so its not unexpected to see such in the temperature record.
And the underlying upward trend will reverse because the Sun was at max just at the end of the century, and is now dropping back.
Bruce
21 Jun 12 at 1:28 pm
IPCC? Corrupt? Say it ain’t so Rajendra!
Bill
21 Jun 12 at 1:31 pm
Warmists relish natural disasters, even when they are not related to climate.
manalive
21 Jun 12 at 2:35 pm
Bet your ass on it. And your ox as well.
Summary of Laframboise on the IPCC. See her in Australia next month.
http://www.the-rathouse.com/2012/IPCC.html
Rafe
21 Jun 12 at 2:41 pm
SfB, You are a hoot, man!
As if I
m influenced by hot weather to diss “climate change” when without the gas heater, my living room is all of 17degrees!!
Pull the other one, dolt,cos the jig is up with the government funded scam and rort and some of us will never trust a climate scientist again!
Jazza
21 Jun 12 at 4:14 pm
Rafe if you’re looking for facts you won’t find them in the IPCC stuff
If you’re looking for propaganda, that’s a different story
val majkus
21 Jun 12 at 4:17 pm
Just west of here (yesterday) recorded lowest temp since 1951
Apparently it wasn’t ” dangerous climate change ” but mere ” harmless weather” .
Lucky eh Snidely Steve.
Jumpnmcar
21 Jun 12 at 4:55 pm
You’ll still get winters for quite some time yet under AGW, you know.
The thing is, with AGW, you might expect record high temperatures to outnumber record low temperatures. Not sure of an equivalent chart for Australia, but for the US, this has indeed been the pattern for a few decades now.
The BOM says the same thing is happening in Australia, but I don’t have a chart.
steve from brisbane
21 Jun 12 at 5:11 pm
AGW past performance predicts that there will be more cold snaps reported, more heatwaves reported, more hurricanes and cyclones reported, more bushfires reported in the leftist MSM and more record temps whether 5 yearly, 20 yearly, 50 yearly or century reported.
So far this is absolutely consistent with the IPCC liars, fiends and climategaters’ and their MSM proagandists’ predictable behaviour
JamesK
21 Jun 12 at 5:21 pm
are you lot still on climate change?
sheesh
dan
21 Jun 12 at 5:25 pm
Thanks Bruce.
dan
21 Jun 12 at 5:27 pm
The planet has warmed a bit since 1900, no one disputes that.
The exact role of human CO2 emissions is unknown.
Even the IPCC aren’t able to put a definite figure on it.
manalive
21 Jun 12 at 5:28 pm
sfb “This all depends on how climate change affects things in the next 5 – 10 years. Enough droughts, floods, and heat waves affecting developing countries, and they have an incentive to take it very seriously.”
As there haven’t been unusual numbers of these why should they start now?
In any case ALL of the proposed measures against climate chnage are known to be ineffective.
Your move, shit for brains (sfb)
Eyrie
22 Jun 12 at 7:31 am