It’s come to this

Here is John Quiggin celebrating the end of the Howard government.

A thousand times sweeter than 1993. Not much more to say until tomorrow. Have a great night, everyone!

Then this*:

For once, my electoral predictions haven’t turned out too badly, so I’ll offer one more before we get back to policy: The Liberal Party will never again win a federal election.

So now just four and a half short years later:

Looking at this appalling crew, I can only quote Oliver Cromwell “You have been sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.”

That is a huge statement given that John Quiggin got exactly what he wanted in the 2010 election:

There seems to be a significant chance that the election will produce a Labor government depending on Green votes in the Reps to provide a lead over the Coalition, and in the Senate to pass legislation. I find it hard to believe that the process we’ve just been through could produce such an outcome, not only matching my preferences but reflecting those expressed by the majority of voters, but that’s what some of the papers are saying is likely.

Now before anyone starts gloating just remember the boot may very well be on the other foot after the next election.

* There is a nuanced argument underpinning that prediction.

Update: In comments John Quiggin says that his comments relate specifically to the NSW branch of the ALP. In other words, the Terje interpretation.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

58 Responses to It’s come to this

  1. Jim Rose

    Sinclair, you must remember that John Quiggin’s golden era is the post-WWII long boom, the greatest and most sustained phase of economic growth in world history.

    the time is also is known as the Menzies era. No other period in Australian history has been named after an individual and so quickly see http://ipa.org.au/library/publication/1210645006_document_review1966_vol.20no.1.pdf

    what John would be back then and is now is an old DLP voter. The DLP was the first of political party to promote:
    • justice and equity in education funding
    • the vote for 18 year olds
    • equal pay for equal work
    • an independent pensions and needs tribunal
    • an end to the White Australia Policy
    • increased family-based immigration
    • strategic development of Australia’s inland, north and west
    • responsible environmental protection
    • support for life and traditional family values
    • capital grants for the family home and for granny flats attached to the family home
    • a homemaker allowance and income tax splitting for families
    • a universal living allowance or guaranteed minimum income based on reverse taxation
    • nationwide portability of superannuation
    • market and product diversification in trade
    • producer cooperatives and income stabilisation
    • long-term low interest loans for small business and the family farm
    • industrial democracy, worker cooperatives and enterprise profit-sharing schemes

  2. Rafe

    Tony Abbott better start talking about blood, sweat and tears because things are going to get worse, possibly a lot worse so he had better not talk up any instant benefits of a new regime because the Coalition is going to inherit an unholy mess with no cash in the kitty.

    There are question marks about their policies and their ticker to do the necessary, especially to stay on track through a double dissolution to get the numbers in the Senate. Etc.

  3. Rafe

    There is also a question mark over the capacity of the public service to deliver on policy initiatives, even when they are congenial, so how will they perform when they don’t like the policies to start with?

  4. kae

    Many people in Queensland who will be or think they will be directly impacted by job losses due to funding cuts by Newman’s LNP government are really unhappy with what he’s doing.

    Asking them what they’d cut to try to rein in the debt, and stop the spending, they have no answer.

    The luvvie media is always on the attack and going after the LNP, Newman and his ministers, using the howling banshee opposition leader who is complaining about how hard done by people are because of the cuts by the LNP. There’s no mention in the MSM of the reason for these cut backs.

    There’s trouble afoot with people involved with protecting wildlife in areas which are to be developed as Newman has cut the funding and some are out of work. My comment was “There has to be a balance between what humans need and conservation/nature.”

    As history show us, after an ALP government there is huge debt, belts must be tightened and we will all suffer. The people who seem to be complaining the most don’t have a clue that this is due to mismanagement by the previous government.

    The worst thing is that many of them must know how bad the previous government is by the visible examples of the health pay system debacle, the fraud on Qld Health by the fake prince ($16M!!), not touching the Bundaberg Hospital (and that seems to happen in a few hospitals from what I hear!), and the lie told for Bligh to get back in (not selling assets which she accused the LNP of doing if they were to get in!).

  5. Splatacrobat

    In the comments part of Quiggin’s blog there is a Jarrah commenting there. is this the same Jarrah that lurks here?

  6. Johno

    Very good point, Rafe. Abbott. Can’t promise the world. He needs to lower expectations about what can be reasonably be achieved.

  7. Peter Patton

    I’ve said it once, I’ve said it twice, I’ve said it many times, and I’ll say it again. Academic Macroeconomics will remain woeful until universities start selecting OUT autism as a dominant trait among its graduate students.

  8. The Old and Unimproved Dave

    When the Australian electorate is de-programmed from the Green Warmist cult, you can expect them to treat any warmist head-rearing with all the warmth of the Poles for the Germans and or Soviets.

    The Greens are about to go raging into a dying of the light.

  9. Rabz

    The people who seem to be complaining the most don’t have a clue that this is due to mismanagement by the previous government.

    Which they were responsible for electing.

  10. mareeS

    Rafe, if people want a say in the way Australia will be going after 2013, people should do what I did recently. Join the Liberal Party.

    They’re still not good at contact, but I do have a membership number and an email link to Arthur Sinodinos if I wish to use it.

    I may even hand out how-to-vote cards at the surf club, if someone from the local branch bothers to get in touch.

  11. GSM

    “The people who seem to be complaining the most don’t have a clue that this is due to mismanagement by the previous government.”

    Sorry. They do. They know full well who is responsible for the debacle that is Qld and what the LNP has inherited. They simply feign convenient ignorance because they have lived of the deceit and wastefullness of Qld Labor but are now seeing all those chickens homing in. Well, no sympathy here. If they were smart enough to keep Labor in power, they need now to man up and deal with the mess Labor left behind.

  12. Splatacrobat

    As history show us, after an ALP government there is huge debt, belts must be tightened and we will all suffer. The people who seem to be complaining the most don’t have a clue that this is due to mismanagement by the previous government.

    Too true Kae
    I was standing around at my boy’s soccer training a while back and one of the other dad’s started moaning about Newman and his plans to cut spending. I thought he was a farmer because he was always spruiking about his 4000 acre cattle property he owns up around Gympie. I asked him why he thought Newman was wrong in cutting consulting jobs in the public service to save money and he said:
    “Because these people are important to the running of services”. I asked if he used the types of services that Newman plans to cut and he said…..wait for it:
    “No way, I am one of those consultants, I work for the government”.

    Also agree with Johno Abbott needs to under promise and over deliver. I think he is watching very closely the way Newman is going about things.

  13. kae

    GSM

    Er, no shit, Sherlock?

    I don’t understand how they can’t see it’s the previous government’s mismanagement that’s got us up to our eyeballs in debt.

    They can not see it. They don’t see that you can’t keep borrowing money to run a business, that’s not the way to do it. Yeah, borrow for capital works/infrastructure, but don’t borrow to pay your staff. You’ll never get out of the hole….

    Until the LNP wins an election and has to pull out all the stops to get the state back on track, and out of that hole.

    I’m not sure that the grizzlers voted for the LNP, I’m sure the people who voted for the LNP knew that the situation was dire. And knew that it was going to hurt for a while. It’s just that the grizzlers make more noise.

  14. Aaron

    It would be interesting to compile a list of predictions from this tax-payer funded academic. I recall a failed prediction about unemployment under the Howard government.

  15. Ellen of Tasmania

    How bad does it have to get before people realise that they’ve maxed out on the credit & money-printing? Look at Greece et al. How much money printing will go on in the USA before they decide to balance the budget?

    Socialist democracies seem to have to crash to learn.

  16. Jumpnmcar

    Cool, according to the DEBT CLOCK Queenslands debt is going down.
    Thanks CanDo.

  17. Anne

    Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.”

    .
    Where would he have them go? Seriously? To abject humiliation at the poll?

    Arrogant pratt! The shoe’s on the other hand now, isn’t it! (like that one Rabz?)

  18. Samuel J

    I don’t know what he is going on about. After all, Quiggin was the one who advocated voting for the Greens (http://johnquiggin.com/2010/07/18/the-case-for-the-greens/ ). And the Greens are the closest thing to Cromwell in this country.

  19. wreckage

    And the Greens are the closest thing to Cromwell in this country.

    Cromwell reversed the seizure of Jewish property. It’s scurrilous to compare him to the Greens.

  20. Samuel J

    Cromwell was a tyrant and puritan. He didn’t return property to the Jews, but he did allow them to return to England after Edward I expelled them in 1290. He then persecuted religious minorities. As a puritan, the comparison with the Greens is apt since they are wanting to convert us all to the Church of Gaia.

  21. tbh

    Quiggin is about to feel the cold hard slap of electoral reality and I for one can’t wait. That sneering, arrogant wanker has it coming and it will be all the better after reminding myself of his previous comments.

    Nothing is forever, John.

  22. Aqualung

    One thing that the ALP will, I imagine, go with is the ‘job losses’.

    People will associate this with policy failure. And even if, after an initial increase in jobless as dead tissue is excised and the ex-public service polyps are funneled into roles that serve a productive purpose (perhaps checking 9V batteries on their tongues) the number of unemployed drops the ALP will claim that the shrinking of the public service was unnecessary. Even moreso, considering a subsequent rise in employment, more were needed.

    People will not see the connection – they were not taught it at school and the media will not educate them. (How sad is it that the media cannot be trusted to provide the background to the policies of the opposition party).

    People will treat the tapeworm as being as vital to their life as their brain because “It is inside your body”.

  23. Alice

    I thought Quiggin was green?

  24. Carpe Jugulum

    Quiggin is about to feel the cold hard slap of electoral reality

    It will not be a slap – it will be delivered by a baseball bat by the entire electorate.

    And i will be in front wirth a bat full of nails.

    (Unless i get my visa and move to Japan)

  25. Token

    I’m glad to say I know very little about him as the number of posts I’ve seen on the man underlines the fact he seems a very small man intellectually crippled by his tribal hatreds.

  26. Alice

    Yes Jarrah lurks in Quiggins blog. I lurked there for a while and had a few almighty blues with said Jarrah and found the heavy hand of moderator intervention a little too stifling for my liking and nver quite sure what Quiggin thinks since he seems to lurch left to right and wants to reduce the world to a stats and numbers game which he wins….boring

  27. TerjeP

    Sinclair – your quotes as presented are a little misleading. The first two contain explicit references to federal politics suggesting that the third quote is a plea for the federal Labor government to be gone. However on inspection Quiggin is actually referring not to the federal Labor government but the NSW Labor Party. And his comment wishing the NSW Labor party gone is prompted by their destabilisation of the federal Labor / Green coalition government.

  28. blogstrop

    found the heavy hand of moderator intervention a little too stifling for my liking

    Another one for the files.

  29. wreckage

    but he did allow them to return to England after Edward I expelled them in 1290

    Point is, he did one thing right.

  30. GSM

    kae,
    “Er, no shit, Sherlock”

    Huh? As a Qlder I know the grizzlers may be more vocal now but you bet they knew they were on a good wicket and loved big free spending Labor. They deluded themselves into thinking it could continue despite the mounting debts. I think its a common affliction of the trough dwellers.

    Let them squeal. We only know it’s doing good when they squeal loud enough.

  31. blogstrop

    It’s time we stopped pussyfooting around the subject, and thanks kae for your comment above.
    It’s deja vu all over again, boom and bust, every time we have a Labor government for more than 18 months the conservatives have to do the hard yards and bear the brunt of Whinging Wendys all over the union-funded advertising topography and the lefty complicit media as they pull us back from the brink with attendant pain and agony.
    As surely as night follows day it will be ever thus unless more of the proletariat get smarter than their left-leaning teachers allowed them to while they attended school. Experience (aka pain) is, or should be, a greater teacher. But sensing that (as C.S. Lewis’ wife said in the movie) “the pleasure now (largesse) is part of the pain later (stringency)” may be more than they can achieve without some after school remedial work.

  32. kae

    GAM
    Yeah, you’re right. The grizzlers seem to be the beneficiaries of the Qld ALP’s largesse in “creating” jobs… LOL
    But it really annoys me no end that they can’t seem to see what’s in front of them. The LNP just can’t carry on as before!

  33. kae

    The unions and the MSM are griping that we’ll be getting rid of police, fireys, nurses, etc.

    I heard someone complain the other day that they missed out on a course to be a fireman as the courses had been canned or the numbers had been reduced, they were unhappy.

    If you really want to do it you’ll just keep trying!

  34. Sinclair Davidson

    Terje – that’s not how I read what John has said.

  35. Mk50 of Brisbane

    Quiggin is pretty much a worthless jerk.

    Typical over-educated, under-brained leftard with delusions of adequacy, really.

    Watching him wriggle and squeal as it slowly dawns on him that his ideological tribe is actually composed of genetic rejects of the dregs of the human genome is highly amusing, though.

  36. .

    However on inspection Quiggin is actually referring not to the federal Labor government but the NSW Labor Party.

    Fifty seats are up for grabs here in the Premier State.

    It’s a big fucking deal, Terje.

  37. Samuel J, Nol was a first rate general and largely a competent politician. There’s the comparison with the greens shot to shit.

  38. Sinclair Davidson

    Mk50 – a bit ott don’t you think? Its one thing to disagree but can’t label someone a jerk unless you actually know them.

  39. John Comnenus

    The irony of JQ quoting a puritanical religious figure dissolving parliament so he could rule as a tyrant to enforce his austere religiosity through the coercive organ of State power. Is JQ ignorant or mendacious.

  40. Mundi

    When Newman was cutting all the jobs, it was hilarious to see all the people ringing up the radio stations to complain. Not a single one would tell anyonevwhat they did, but all claimed they were essential front line workers, even though they were just consultants.

  41. Entropy

    Sure, but they are about to start on permanent, experienced staff.
    I would not have a problem with it if it wasn’t left in the hands of the empire builders to give people taps on the shoulder, or use it as opportunity to cut out programs they never loved. Never loved becuase the manager sof those areas called them out for their only skill: upward management.
    The Ministers should spend time getting to know what their departments do, and then work out what they don’t want delivered anymore. And trust no one.

  42. C.L.

    All public servants provide “frontline services” now, Mundi. This is a PR trick imported from the Democrat National Committee. Obama zombies realise that the only civil servants the public at large gives a shit about are nurses, ambos, medics and emergency service personnel. So when they started with their wacko ‘stimulus’ spending they sold it as necessary to protect “frontline services.” Pretty soon, “frontline workers” included everyone from an intensive care matron to a telephonist at the Department of Motor Vehicles. This hilarious con has now crept into the patois of our own public sector leeches.

  43. John Quiggin

    Sinclair, Terje is correct.

    Everything in the post is a reference to the NSW State branch, and the performance of the NSW State Labor government.

    Even in the 2007 post you cite, which was over-optimistic about Labor’s chances in other respects, I mentioned that they were likely to lose the NSW election in 2011.

  44. Fisky

    Even in the 2007 post you cite, which was over-optimistic about Labor’s chances in other respects

    So we won’t enjoy a permanent social democratic dictatorship after all?

  45. Jim Rose

    So we won’t enjoy a permanent social democratic dictatorship after all?

    Too many policies and ideas of the Left assumed that they are the face of the future, rather than just another political party that will hold power as often as not.

    Democratic socialism is pointless because electoral power is fleeting. Sooner or latter, the left wing parties lose power and capitalism would be resorted.

    In a unitary unicameral parliament, those crazies to the right or left of you are tempered by an occasional general election only every 3 to 5 years.

    Little wonder that UK Labor reconsidered devolution, an assembly for London, and regional government after 15 years of Maggie Thatcher, good and hard. Unfettered power loses its shine when it must be shared with your opponents.

    Developing positive alternatives on the Left includes what to do about the rotation of power and fettered versus unfettered parliamentary and executive power.

    The failure of the Left to develop its own constitutional political economy is a major strategic shortcoming. Frequenting wine bars, cafes and blogs muttering to each other ‘our day will come, our day will come’ is not enough.

    Privatisation and deregulation is a lot slower in a federal system with an effective upper house elected by proportional representation.

    Regulatory powers and public ownership is spread over different levels of federations, with different parties in power at various levels at the same time, all worried about losing office by going to far away from what the majority wants. The will of the people is constantly tested and measured in a federal system with elections at one level or another every year.

  46. J-man

    I have heard John Quiggin speak to Russ Roberts as part of his EconTalk series and I heard him speak at the ACE conference last week. In both of those I found him to be interesting, but I did not agree with everything he said. That is fine, I don’t agree with everything anyone says. But what intrigues me is the difference between what he says at an economics conference or in an interview with another economics professor and what he writes on his blog.

    He is reasonable/cautious when he is with other economists who know the field and outrageous when he is writing online. Is it possible that some of his online writings are outsourced to graduate students (wild theory so John, if you are reading, happy to have you beat me down on that one)? Or is it that he is not comfortable in making the wild claims amongst economists, but content in making outrageous claims amongst his faithful online community?

  47. Rabz

    I mentioned that they were likely to lose the NSW election in 2011.

    Yep, no one except your good self could have foreseen that shellacking…

    Give it away, qui-gon jon. [Edit. Sinc]

  48. Jarrah

    “In the comments part of Quiggin’s blog there is a Jarrah commenting there. is this the same Jarrah that lurks here?”

    It could be an imitator, but it’s probably me if the gravatar matches up. But FYI, ‘lurking’ means reading without commenting. I don’t lurk there, or here.

    “had a few almighty blues with said Jarrah”

    Oh no, it’s Brainless Alice!

  49. Sinclair Davidson

    Rabz – no. OTT.

  50. C.L.

    Oh no, it’s Brainless Alice!

    Quality argumentation.

  51. .

    I told you a long time ago Alice was the most brain dead zombie out there, but a stint here has seen her improve.

  52. Entropy

    I am sure Alice has a brain, Jarrah. As evidence I have seen her typed comments.

  53. Jarrah

    “Quality argumentation.”

    Free of logical fallacies, unlike some people I could mention.

  54. Jarrah

    “a stint here has seen her improve.”

    Well, long ago I suggested she visit here, so I guess it’s not completely pointless arguing with strangers on the internet.

  55. .

    Update: In comments John Quiggin says that his comments relate specifically to the NSW branch of the ALP. In other words, the Terje interpretation.

    I guess he kind of was under a rock for the last QLD State election.

  56. Gowest

    Cant see the problem Sync – Julia and the carbon tax were blamed for the NSW election result anyway, so your observation still applies.
    Obviously the NSW electors were a bit faster to suss out the economic situation than professional economists.
    As for Queenslanders they gave us Kevin Rudd, the review committee king and Kevin Swan the world’s greatest treasurer (of debt) so it is not surprising they went LNP so fast.

  57. C.L.

    Free of logical fallacies, unlike some people I could mention.

    Yes, I recall the hilarious thread where you denied your habitual recourse to ad homs – insisting that when you posited ad homs they were actually “opinions.”

    Dover and I enjoyed that very much.

  58. JC

    ….insisting that when you posited ad homs they were actually “opinions.”

    Oh yea. Jazzabelle is his own biggest fan. judging by the success of his blog, the only one.

Comments are closed.