Wayne Swan’s surplus

Treasurer Wayne Swan continues to promise to deliver a surplus. But look at his record.

In his first budget on 13 May 2008, Swan promised a surplus in 2008-09 of $21.7 billion. In the Final Budget Outcome for 2008-09, Swan delivered a deficit of $27.1 billion.

In his second budget on 12 May 2009, Swan promised a deficit in 2009-10 of $57.6 billion. The FBO showed a deficit of $54.8 billion for 2009-10.

In his third budget on 11 May 2010, Swan promised a deficit in 2010-11 of $40.8 billion. The FBO showed a deficit of $47.7 billion for that year.

In his fourth budget on 10 May 2011, Swan promised a deficit in 2011-12 of $22.6 billion. This was updated to a deficit of $44.4 billion in his fifth budget on 8 May 2012. The FBO for 2011-12 will be released at the end of September 2012.

In his most recent budget on 8 May 2012, Swan promised a surplus in 2012-13 of $1.5 billion. We will not know the outcome until late September 2013, by which time the is likely to be an Abbott Government in power.

Wayne Swan will never deliver a surplus – what do you think?

First Poll for 2011-12.

Second Poll for 2012-13.

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50 Responses to Wayne Swan’s surplus

  1. Helen Armstrong

    For the first three goes, I thought he’d got his plus and minus signs mixed up, an easy mistake for a new treasurer of a nation to make, but the fourth? I can only surmise he was trying to see if the mixed signs voodoo really worked and if by predicting a massive deficit, he would actually deliver a massive surplus.

  2. Helen Armstrong

    Ignore that previous comment – obviously I too, would not make a treasurer of Oz!

  3. Gab

    Ignore that previous comment – obviously I too, would not make a treasurer of Oz!

    More accurate when you think about it. 🙂

  4. Gab

    Anyway, I don’t know what the big deal is, not like Woine’s totally hopeless, that first blue bar is in surplus.

  5. Alice

    What point having a government surplus when the private sector has a large deficit and higher unemployment than usual?? Dont see that Europe is solving any of its problems with austerity and cutting government spending.
    At least Wayne wants the three overweight amigos to pay more tax here. Not a bad idea.

  6. Old Fridgie

    Alice can you please explain

    private sector has a large deficit and higher unemployment

    I am intrigued???

  7. JamesK

    At least Wayne wants the three overweight amigos to pay more tax here.

    Why is it a ‘not a bad idea’ to create investment uncertainty and have a government behave like capricious stand-over thugs to some of its citizens?

    Why’s that “good” Alice?

  8. JC

    At least Wayne wants the three overweight amigos to pay more tax here. Not a bad idea.

    Why would that be a good idea, Alice? Explain why imposing a special tax on three people would be a good idea.

  9. Raider580

    Its not the surplus in 12/13 but the deficit in 13/14 when all the postponed spending comes back. How large will that be?

  10. derFRED

    He knows little, but Wayne must know where a lot of bodies (or raunchy photos) are buried. How else can you explain the meteoric rise of such an imbecile?

  11. val majkus

    he’ll never make a surplus no matter how much fancy footwork he engages in

  12. Alice

    Old Friggie

    Ill explain – “private sector debt” is the problem (around the world) while people run around saying “public sector deficits are sooooooooooo bad…”

    You know – its not so bad at all. Default is not so bad either..not bailing out is not so bad either..

    Its all a crock – some banks need to fail. Some debts need to be forgiven. Some giovernments need to declare bankruptcy and get over it. Businesses do it all the time. We dont strap them to a water wheel until they confess their sins or drown. Some lenders need to lose.

  13. Alice

    JC = for one reason – these three overweight amigos are getting way too big for their boots. They dont make their money by paying tax in this country. They may create jobs but not as much as you think. They dont give a stuff about contributing to social capital here but they got rich here with the help of a lot of other Australians who own what the three obese amigos dig out.

    For another reason – they think their wealth gives them a right to dictate how the rest of the majority (vast majority in Australia) should live and they are starting to lean on governments.

    JC I have nothing against self made wealthy people as long as they stay the fuck out of politics and the media ownership.

  14. Old Fridgie

    No Alice I am fully aware of private sector debt. I asked what private sector unemployment is as in

    private sector has a large deficit and higher unemployment than usual

    Which reads as the private sector has a large deficit and the private sector has higher unemployment.

    So what is private sector unemployment??

    Or was it just a moronic statement made up of poorly chosen words trying divert argument away from the point of the thread – i.e. Wayne Swan and budget deficits?

  15. Old Fridgie

    Businesses do it all the time.

    Alice can I just alert you to one point when businesses go into debt they aren’t spending our fucking money, unlike Wayne who just continues to piss our hard earned taxes up against the wall you dipshit.

  16. Old Fridgie

    For another reason – they think their wealth gives them a right to dictate how the rest of the majority (vast majority in Australia) should live and they are starting to lean on governments.

    But you obviously think that unions leaning on the government is just fine and dandy.

  17. JC

    JC = for one reason – these three overweight amigos are getting way too big for their boots.

    Are they, how eggsactly?

    They dont make their money by paying tax in this country.

    They may or may not be paying income as I don’t know and neither do you. You seem to be confusing wealth and income.

    They may create jobs but not as much as you think.

    So what?

    They dont give a stuff about contributing to social capital here but they got rich here with the help of a lot of other Australians who own what the three obese amigos dig out.

    Machines dig out the stuff, Alice. Mining with shovels stopped ages ago.

    For another reason – they think their wealth gives them a right to dictate how the rest of the majority (vast majority in Australia) should live and they are starting to lean on governments.

    How so? Evidence please.

    JC I have nothing against self made wealthy people as long as they stay the fuck out of politics and the media ownership.

    So you mean Rudd and Turnball shouldn’t be in parliament. You mean you would reverse means test any rich person from entering politics and also stop them from commenting?

    Fuck off Alice, you fascist goon.

    Why the fuck are you commenting here?

  18. Alice

    “fascist goon”??

    You wouldnt know one if you fell over one JC.

  19. Just Me

    Alice – I have a problem with fucking unions & lunatic green zomboids dictating public policy! They are not representative of anyone or anything but themselves.

    I want a new rule – if you don’t pay tax, and you receive income from the taxpayer then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote

  20. Alice

    fascist goons and lunatic green zomboids rarely meet in my experience

    Let alone share the same ideas.

  21. JC

    “fascist goon”??

    You wouldnt know one if you fell over one JC.

    Well I do Alice. You’re talking like one this evening.

  22. candy

    Alice, i tend to think it’s a bit simplistic to say a wealthy person cannot be an efficient government minister or a union member cannot be so as well.

    Best not to put people in ‘categories’, they always surprise you one way or another by doing something unexpected!

  23. Alice

    I do agree with Candy above – best not to put people in categories but when money runs the politics show and money runs election campaigns what hope does someone with a decent set of policies have of getting up Candy?

    We see this in the US – it doesnt matter whether you vote dem or rep. The entire facade of politics is a facade to benefit the 1% (and the 0.1%) grossly and obscenely more at the expense of the upper middle, middle and all else… so whilst even the upper middle wants to live the American dream and move up, that dream is turning into a non event.

    Its getting less and less likely they will move up and more likely they will move down a class… whilst the great American dream of freedom turns into old europe with irs ruling elites and aristocracies

    Only some here live in denial that its even happening and it doesnt even matter who you vote for because both sides have been captured.

    You know they had a tea party and a civil war once to preserve their democracy in the US but I dont even believe the average US citizen has it in them anymore to fight for what is right…that land of opportunity.

    Instead of having a tea party for the right reasons they have a tea party to destroy their own government. WTF?

    But ask JC – he is the expert on maintaining the status quo that is failing.

  24. derFRED

    Union “money” runs election campaigns. Rather, the money extorted from their cult membership has run every ALP election campaign that I can remember, Alice.

  25. H B Bear

    How else can you explain the meteoric rise of such an imbecile?

    Bill Ludwig

  26. JamesK

    At least Alice isn’t one of Bill’s protégés.

    Alice is even too stupid for that.

  27. .

    Instead of having a tea party for the right reasons they have a tea party to destroy their own government. WTF?

    The Government is destroying prosperity through debt, and decisions like Keystone.

    It must be destroyed to save America from a British style decline.

  28. The reason for Swan’s meteoric rise is IMO to have a cipher in the Treasurer’s chair, who would not be able to do to Rudd what Keating did to Hawke.

    Too bad Rudd put a powerful, ambitious person who wasn’t Treasurer in the deputy’s chair. He missed that one, but for all his towering intellect he never seemed to me to have much in the way of common sense (and still doesn’t).

  29. Entropy

    Must be Sunday and Alice is let loose again. In this thread she sounds like one of the other animals in the story of henny penny, who refused to help her sow the wheat, grow the wheat, harvest the wheat and bake the bread, but gets all upset when she doesn’t give them any.

    I lke the Ronald Reagan version the best.

  30. Entropy

    Bugger. It’s called the little red hen, not henny penny.

    Once upon a time there was a little red hen who scratched about the barnyard until she uncovered some grains of wheat. She called her neighbors and said ‘If we plant this wheat, we shall have bread to eat. Who will help me plant it?’

    “Not I, ” said the cow.

    “Not I,” said the duck.

    “Not I,” said the pig.

    “Not I,” said the goose.

    “Then I will,” said the little red hen. And she did. The wheat grew tall and ripened into golden grain. “Who will help me reap my wheat?” asked the little red hen.

    “Not I,” said the duck.

    “Out of my classification,” said the pig.

    “I’d lose my seniority,” said the cow.

    “I’d lose my unemployment compensation,” said the goose.

    “Then I will,” said the little red hen, and she did.

    At last the time came to bake the bread. “Who will help me bake bread?” asked the little red hen.

    “That would be overtime for me,” said the cow.

    “I’d lose my welfare benefits,” said the duck.

    “I’m a dropout and never learned how,” said the pig.

    “If I’m to be the only helper, that’s discrimination,” said the goose.

    “Then I will,” said the little red hen.

    She baked five loaves and held them up for the neighbors to see.

    They all wanted some and, in fact, demanded a share. But the little red hen said, “No, I can eat the five loaves myself.”

    “Excess profits,” cried the cow.

    “Capitalist leech,” screamed the duck.

    “I demand equal rights,” yelled the goose.

    And the pig just grunted.

    And they painted “unfair” picket signs and marched round and around the little red hen shouting obscenities.

    When the government agent came, he said to the little red hen, “You must not be greedy.”

    “But I earned the bread,” said the little red hen.

    “Exactly,” said the agent. “That’s the wonderful free enterprise system. Anyone in the barnyard can earn as much as he wants. But under our modern government regulations productive workers must divide their products with the idle.”

    And they lived happily ever after, including the little red hen, who smiled and clucked, “I am grateful, I am grateful.” But her neighbors wondered why she never again baked any more bread.

  31. JC

    But ask JC – he is the expert on maintaining the status quo that is failing.

    I am , am I?

  32. WhaleHunt Fun

    I have yet to meet a green who is not a fascist goon. That is why they never meet. They are the same person. Nobody asked me to have these stupid limp light greeny bulb lamps, they bloody enforced them with their usual pigfaced contempt for me and most people.
    Burn a green, smell melting jackboots.

  33. JC

    Well actually Turnbull did, Whalehunt. He’s a liberal.

  34. Entropy

    An example of the reasons he should never be PM

  35. WhaleHunt Fun

    Liberal is his party. Nasty fascist green is his psyche

  36. WhaleHunt Fun

    And I bet he’s anti-whaling and lots of other fun

  37. Rob

    Alice you do not understand that if someone is running a business in compliance with corporate, civil and criminal laws it is entirely inappropriate for Govt let alone a first-rate incompetent minister to offer a running commentary full of hatred, mockery and destruction. It is simply not their job, they have no Constitutional role as, effectively, court jesters to the rich and they should stay the hell away. Your attitude to the ‘obese amigos’ or their personal characteristics themselves are irrelevant.

    The current circus of personal vendettas, Twitter addiction and the like should be grounds for prosecution or at least they should be warned off- I believe there are laws regarding misuse of public office. It is just unbelievable. If my secretary sent 10 let alone 200 tweets during a working day despite widespread public ridicule I can’t see how she would remain on staff. I am just stupefied at what is going on. We should all be deluging talkback etc because there sure as hell needs to be OUTRAGE.

  38. delfino

    JC – aren’t you glad you are not, as the song goes -‘living next door to Alice’.

  39. JC

    JC – aren’t you glad you are not, as the song goes -’living next door to Alice’.

    I live next to alice’s brother, Del. Believe me. We have a nutcase living in the flats next door. We’re very nice to him because we’re worried he may burn the house down. Thank God he likes us.

  40. Richard D

    For another reason – they think their wealth gives them a right to dictate how the rest of the majority (vast majority in Australia) should live and they are starting to lean on governments

    Alice, I am building a house at the moment & there is 100 bits of green legislation I have to comply with whether I like it or not & whether it make any sense or not. Someone is dictating how I should live & it is not some wealthy miners.
    As far as I can see, they are quite happy to respect my liberties & even sell me some materials that I might need. In fact I would have liked some more glass but some green prick put a limit on how much I could use, it doesn’t matter that the house is located where it won’t need a real lot of heating & cooling.

    You shouldn’t be worried about rich people influencing government to control your life. Rich people tend to want government to get out of the way, it is idealists that want to use government & legislation to change the world that should concern you.

  41. twostix

    lol is Alice a leftist chatbot 2000?

    Every mindless contemporary leftist talking point and meme regurgitated in just three posts: “You didn’t build that”, advances little Wayne Swan’s 1920’s Soviet Style denunciations and rhetoric, embarrassing occupy “1%” rhetoric, “just knows” that the US is some crypto-feudalist nightmare, mouths the very uninspired lefts caricature of the Tea Party movement, and finally, uses the term “social capital”.

    Oh and Alice here’s a hint: When the original Boston Tea Party occurred, guess what…those British men who threw that Tea in the river weren’t what you think.

  42. entropy

    I don’t think so twostix. Alice seems to be a fan of the type of socialism you get in One Nation or KAP.

  43. Richard D

    Twostix is right, ‘Social capital’ is an absolute give away. It is one of those market failure, evils of the profit motive sort of terms.
    The KAP & One Nation are arch-conservatives, they want protections from the creatative destruction of the market.
    They don’t think of themselves as pure & all knowing in a evil capitalist world, they just want you to have no choice but to buy their over priced produce.

  44. Winston SMITH

    Good one Alice – we’ll take our governing class from the drongos who are too lazy or stupid to make a quid!

  45. Entropy

    Sure Richard, but the result is still redistribution of the earnings of others to a target group using the power of government. It is just that the welfare is hidden in price fixing arrangements.

  46. brc

    @Richard Kap and One Nation are socialists, but they are the some of the worst kind – the ones that don’t even realise or think they are.

    They want to use the apparatus of state to dictate outcomes, and want to favor selected types of industry and business over another.

    In reality, they are no different to Labor and the Greens. Just because they want to boost farming instead of renewables doesn’t change their classification of statist idiots.

    It might sound like a grand idea to do things like provide low cost financing or fixed prices to farmers, but in reality someone pays and everyone suffers. It doesn’t matter if it’s the price of tomatoes or the price of electricity, if you’re making somone rich over government policy, by definition you are making someone else poor.

    You make the example of the amount of glass for your home – well, a KAP or One Nation government would probably mandate a fixed amount of Australian products or something like that. It would be as equally annoying and pointless as a greenie dictating how much glass you can have.

  47. brc

    @rob – good rant. The core problem is that even our language makes politicians think they are actually in charge.

    Phrases like ‘running the country’ are completely inaccurate.

    To mangle a football analogy – the government are the ones who set the rules of the game. Come grand final time, they’re not even on the field. It’s the captains and the players that are running the game, and the courts are like the referee to make sure everyone sticks to the rules. The administrators and rulemakers don’t even get their heads on the TV when the scores are counted.

    Instead we have politicians and their faithful media acting as though the guy who painted the chalk lines has more right to the post-match camera than the guy who captained the winning side.

  48. Robert Crew

    I remember back in 1992 when Keating promised a surplus, too. All my Labor mates were crowing about it “see, we told you Keating could deliver a surplus”. Funnily enough, Keating blew the entire proceeds of the Qantas sale in less than six months and still didn’t have a surplus to show for it. plus ça change

  49. Cold-Hands

    Given that the Government has allocated funds for 450 “asylum seekers”/month and the current entry rate is closer to four times that figure, the cost overruns on Labor’s failed Border Protection ‘Policy’ will be almost enough to sink Swan’s fabled budget surplus.

  50. Richard D

    Yes brc, you are right, they are all socialists & Katter’s agenda probably goes beyond agriculture but I still think they are the lesser of two evils. The left want to get into every aspect of our lives in a real Orwellian way (& I can’t stand their intellectual arrogance & self righteousness), at least Katter is happy with us fishing & shooting.

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