The story of the moment is that the polls show Obama still ahead when he should be a mile behind. There are two problems for Romney, neither one of which I could offer him any advice about. There is firstly the fall out from the primaries which has apparently still left some frosty remains behind. I think that will go away as the time gets closer to the end, but the absence of real warmth towards a candidate who would be the next Ronald Reagan continues to amaze me. I had not a few conversations with Americans at Mont Pelerin and the lack of real interest in either seeing Obama lose or Romney win was quite striking. The closest I had to an articulate response was that in comparison with Ronald Reagan, Romney had not read the literature so was really not much more of a bit of flotsam that would be swept in any direction that advantage might require.
The other bit is the media. I understand that no one can remain totally uninfluenced by the way the campaign is being reported but I continuously discuss the election with people who make me think they have just come from reading the latest editorial in The New York Times. The cartoon by Ramirez (via Hot Air) is something that should never be out of mind reading any story in any newspaper without exception and it goes even more so with anything that comes through the ether. Unless it is confirmed by some trusted source, it is safest to just assume it’s an attempt to mislead or distort.
In the meantime I still believe Romney will win and this is why. Over the past four years there is not a single person who did not vote for Obama last time who will vote for him this time. He has not gained a single vote in the past four years and lost many. If Obama can win from here, the media-freeloader-Democrat complex will have become too difficult to dislodge. Waiting for utter catastrophe is not a strategy.
CNN poll: Romney ahead 53 to 45.
C.L.
12 Sep 12 at 12:57 am
I think Rommney is doing well.
The Republicans and conservatives having a tanty and demanding more of Romney are a joke and a disgrace quite frankly.
They got who they wanted.
The last people to listen to are the MSM and they need to analyse polling data very critically.
Romney’s doing considerably better than many of the conservative commentators quite frankly.
Santorum can make the case better on the campaign trail but Romney is isn’t a political orator and natural teacher like Reagan.
His honey badger Sunnunu and surrogates such Santorum and Gingrich will shine in the next month as will Ryan
Romney will be fine in the debates andRyan will destroy Biden.
Lord am I looking forward to that.
Johnson and Goode in New Mexico and Virginia respectively could be a problem and that tosser Akin made the math to 51 senate seats much more difficult but likely not for Romney in Missouri.
Nothing has fundamentally changed since ’10 except turnout will be better which will help Dems but not by enough.
In fact things including health premiums are already considerably worse.
I suspect an Oct surprise but the MSM can’t peddle furiously as successfully as they have since the conventions.
The poll bounce for Obama is already today markedly diminished.
Two weeks from the election all debates over, I expect many more states in play and a likely blow out.
The next 4-5 weeks should be quite a ride.
I’m optimistic.
JamesK
12 Sep 12 at 1:03 am
Wishful thinking Steve. I think Obama will win in a gallop (unfortunately).
How can you know that? He could well have gained votes (including from people who don’t like Mormons …).
Johnno
12 Sep 12 at 3:06 am
CL, I read that article earlier today and while CNN likely made a mistake in their sampling, to take 37 responses out of about 900 and move that up to about 300, puts a huge weight on those 37 individuals. CNN’s is likely an outlier, but Gallup and Rasmussen that have had a Republican lean all year have Obama ahead.
If Obama wins, who’s fault will it be? My guess is the firing squad focuses on Romney for not being a true conservative and not letting Paul Ryan “shine”. Also as Steve so nicely lays out, poor, poor Republicans have to fight against that evil left MSM to get their message out, while forgetting about Fox news and the right wing talk radio echo chamber.
The debates will be interesting, especially the Ryan/Biden showdown. Expectations are so high for Ryan that if Biden scores some clean hits then Ryan’s reputation as the “intellectual leader and truth teller of the GOP” will continue to be damaged.
WadeJ
12 Sep 12 at 3:09 am
JamesK: Santorum will do nothing. He was never a promising candidate. He got to where he was primarily by luck. He’s no help from hereon in, and – assuming he didn’t do some deal with Romney for a cabinet post in return for dropping out when he did – will fade into the background.
Romney’s the now. The future…well, the future’s rich with GOP emerging stars who will eclipse Santorum with the greatest of ease.
Santorum’s a good guy, but you really need to let him go. Since dropping out of the race, he’s not been of particular help to Romney up until now, so pretending he’s going to play some integral part henceforth is just a bit unrealistic.
Santorum had his chance, but he didn’t get over the line. No one can say it wasn’t a valiant effort that at times seemed hopeless, but he made himself into a bona fide contender. Still, he didn’t get over the line. And looking at his future opponents, it’s pretty clear to me that this was his one and only shot. I agree with what you say about Rubio. A lot. It’s time to start focusing on the future.
Oh come on
12 Sep 12 at 4:11 am
Last week, I thought that if the 3 jobs reports before the election averaged job creation of 150k, Obama would win. One down, two to go.
Sleetmute
12 Sep 12 at 6:11 am
He’s an official Romney surrogate.
What was the point of your comment Oco?
Something deep and meaningful?
Or just stroking your own ego?
LOL
Romney is being criticized for just making an economic case not an ideological one.
He’s just not a natural politician.
He’s least able to prosecute the case against Obamacare the reason for the ’10 wave election.
That was always the case and he got into trouble with that on the Sunday politics show interview and has had to backpeddle since.
Everyone is bucketing him now but it’s stupid.
That was the candidate with that predictable weakness they chose.
No point in complaining about that now.
Moreover he will win nevertheless.
Here’s Michael Gerson in today’s OZ:
JamesK
12 Sep 12 at 6:37 am
Johnno
12 Sep 12 at 6:59 am
It’s a test of faith for the deists. If there is a god how can a place with the best Constitution on earth allow some racially conditioned neo-marxist 4 more years to finish the job? Alas, god may be found wanting.
Alfonso
12 Sep 12 at 7:05 am
If I recall correctly, poor Republican turn out lost it for McCain/Palin in 2010. The Dems on the other hand, were voting even when they were dead.
CC
12 Sep 12 at 8:00 am
They still are (see the link), why do you think the Dems are against ID checks on voting booths?
_______________________________________________
Politicians spend a lot of time trying to position themselves as the underdog to ensure their base does not get complacent.
The manipulations by the media actually will inspire those who want to get rid of Obama but may be wavering to show up.
Token
12 Sep 12 at 8:34 am
I know politics is dirty, but once again the Chicago machine commits another gaffe that will p*ss off neutral voters.
The promise:
The Obama machine can’t even keep such a deal:
I trust the Romney campaign will take a note and stop repeating the mistakes made by McCain 4 years ago.
Token
12 Sep 12 at 8:38 am
Indeed Token. Chicaco thug politics. With our own slug singing from the same songsheet.
CC
12 Sep 12 at 9:02 am
What difference does it makes who wins?
Military spending down? No, or not significantly.
Social Security fixed? No, its a basket case, default is the only option.
Medicare/Mediaid/obamacare/romenycare? Same outcome, one model is a little slower getting there.
Balanced Budget? Never, talk is cheap, it simply cant be balanced. Cut entitlement payments, NO, cut military spending, NO and on and on.
So Romney/Ryan are going to balance the budget? Really? How? Do the math, fewer people in the labor particiaption force, fewer taxpayers, more people living of taxpayers, record food stamp particapation, baby boomers trying to retire. Cities and states which are literally insolvent, watch them start to fall over during the next 5 years. An insolvent empire with nukes and aircraft carriers.
What possible difference does it make if its Obama or Romney elected? Do you people like what the republicans say, does it sound free market? All you have to do it stop listening to what they say and watch what THEY DO. More debt, more insolvency, more lies.
Its a 2 headed beast, they talk different, but either head will gladly eat you.
Reagan? What a classic example of listening to what someone says while ignoring what they do.
It does not matter one little bit who wins, the outcome will be the same, that country is done.
incog40
12 Sep 12 at 10:37 am
What difference does it makes who wins?
Military spending down? No, or not significantly.
Social Security fixed? No, its a basket case, default is the only option.
Medicare/Mediaid/obamacare/romenycare? Same outcome, one model is a little slower getting there.
Balanced Budget? Never, talk is cheap, it simply cant be balanced. Cut entitlement payments, NO, cut military spending, NO and on and on.
So Romney/Ryan are going to balance the budget? Really? How? Do the math, fewer people in the labor particiaption force, fewer taxpayers, more people living of taxpayers, record food stamp particapation, baby boomers trying to retire. Cities and states which are literally insolvent, watch them start to fall over during the next 5 years. An insolvent empire with nukes and aircraft carriers.
What possible difference does it make if its Obama or Romney elected? Do you people like what the republicans say, does it sound free market? All you have to do it stop listening to what they say and watch what THEY DO. More debt, more insolvency, more lies.
Its a 2 headed beast, they talk different, but either head will gladly eat you.
Reagan? What a classic example of listening to what someone says while ignoring what they do.
It does not matter one little bit who wins, the outcome will be the same, that country is done.
incog40
12 Sep 12 at 10:41 am
Leftist media disagrees with you
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/world-commentary/mitt-romneys-uphill-challenge/story-e6frg6ux-1226472052223
($)
(from Washington Post [bias alert] Writers (sic) Group)
DMS
12 Sep 12 at 10:53 am
DMS, Michael Gerson is a conservative.
JamesK
12 Sep 12 at 11:11 am
Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold?
SteveC
12 Sep 12 at 11:43 am
Nate Silver who has worked for the Democrats and writes for the extreme left NYT cites Rasmussen’s Monday polling for this opinion(He also has an infamous history of querying Rasmussen’s integrity).
Trouble is Rasmussen Tuesday doesn’t agree:
JamesK
12 Sep 12 at 12:06 pm
Obama, Romney election Washington Post-ABC poll, Sept. 7 to 9, 2012
Obama, Romney run close among likely voters after conventions
Q: (Among likely voters) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama, the Democrat) and (Mitt Romney, the Republican), for whom would you vote?
Obama 49%
Romney 48%
The thing is Nate Silver will be a deal more honest with 2 weeks to go when this sorta tomfoolery would actually be remembered and so damage his rep.
SteveC of course has no good rep to defend.
JamesK
12 Sep 12 at 12:31 pm
I posted this in the OT as well. This is a concern for everyone and is drawing parallels with Carter in 1979.
The sad thing is that the attempt to reach out to the Arab world really was noble in its intention, yet so naive.
Carter what he thought was the “right thing” and helped Iran remove a despot and got burned by the zealots. It seems Obama has tried the same 30 years later and got the same results.
Token
12 Sep 12 at 12:39 pm
Its good to see you use a Ramirez cartoon …. he is one of the few cartoonists who has consistently called it like it is.
It is really unfortunate that we don’t have an equivalent in Australia
Mark
12 Sep 12 at 1:48 pm
Rasmussen down to O+1 now, apparently Romney ahead with leaners….
Interestingly, even with polls showing Obama ahead, Romney almost always wins among indepedents and undecideds. The only way Obama “leads” is with a massive base turnout akin to what he got in 2008, which almost certainly ain’t happening this time around.
MDMConnell
13 Sep 12 at 10:03 am