As you know, I am always keen to pick the brains of the Cat crowd. Some of you are so clever and knowledgable, while some of you are easily distracted (Thanks for the feedback on medical workforce training; I am planning on doing some more work on the issue.)
I understand that the first figures we will have on the MRRT revenue are due out on 23 October, so not many more sleeps. The tax is payable quarterly in arrears. Recall that the Budget had put down a figure of $3 billion in MRRT revenue for the fiscal year.
Here is my guess:
- Most of the revenue will come from iron ore, not much will come from coal.
- BHP and Rio will elect to pay a bit because they designed the tax and, for political economy reasons, it would be bad sport not to pay anything.
- But because of the Deferred Tax Assets being carried in their books were struck when the tax was announced in 2010 and when market prices were higher, these two companies could technically play nothing. There is scope to work the tax book in a way that will give various outcomes.
- Xstrata will probably pay nothing, in part because it doesn’t really give a toss and in part because it is busy merging with Glencore. Its Australian assets are also coal.
- An all-up annual figure of $1.5 billion would be a good outcome for the government.
Any other bids?