The US Presidential election is not a popular vote across the 50 states: the people of the United States elect the electors for the presidential election. The archaic electoral college system (established because of a combination of fears of populism and the lack of good communications infrastructure in the 18th century) has a relative bias to smaller states. Because of the method of the allocation of the electoral college votes, with most states operating on a winner takes all basis (ie: the candidate getting 51 per cent of the popular vote in the state gets 100 per cent of the electoral college vote from that state), there can be a significant disparity between the popular vote and the electoral college outcome.
The current polling suggests that Romney will win the popular vote. He has an average lead of 0.9 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics and 0.5 percentage points in the Huffington Post average.
Yes the state polling averages are clear: Obama leads in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan. Romney leads in Florida and North Carolina. The votes look very close in Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.
If Obama loses both Virginia and Colorado he would still win with over 290 electoral votes.
I also suspect that Hurricane Sandy will favour Obama, especially in Virginia.
So the Democrats who favour the abolition of the electoral college system may yet benefit from it. While the Republicans who benefited in 2000 seem set to find themselves on the wrong side of the ledger.
I hope this prediction does not come to pass – it is better for the elected president to win both the popular vote and the electoral college. Obama does not deserve a second term. But from my reading, I think this result is reasonably likely.
Sorry SJ, this is about as useful as a Treasury forecast.
jasbo
31 Oct 12 at 6:29 am
jasbo. That is harsh and unfair. Samuel has some credibility and there is some factual basis to his forecast.
johno
31 Oct 12 at 6:45 am
My prediction: Governor Romney will win at least 295 Electoral College votes. Of the swing states he will carry Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hamphsire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia & Wiscinsin.
Geoff L
31 Oct 12 at 7:37 am
Whoa.
ABC News Moves Pensylvania, Minnesota from ‘Safe’ to ‘Lean’ Obama
sdog
31 Oct 12 at 7:47 am
From a journalistic perspective, sdog, you want to make it an interesting competition, or why would people by a paper?
Entropy
31 Oct 12 at 7:51 am
Im with Geoff L.
dianeh
31 Oct 12 at 7:53 am
Dick Morris thinks the Romnster has increased his lead against the Kenyan as he’s hearing from the pollsters that the undecided are breaking to Romney 3:1
JC
31 Oct 12 at 7:54 am
http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-keeps-momentum-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
JC
31 Oct 12 at 7:55 am
Will it favor him enough to cancel out the bad feelings from his dissing of the US Navy (and the US military in general) in the state which is home to the largest Naval Station in the world?
sdog
31 Oct 12 at 8:10 am
Benghazi must have fixed the US military vote. A Pres who can throw an ambassador to the wolves to prove Al Q doesn’t exist might reasonably be expected not to care much about a SF recce section trapped inside, say, Iran.
Alfonso
31 Oct 12 at 8:27 am
Samuel J’s fears are a possibility rather than a probability.
I still think Romney will win over 300 electoral colleges and a win on the same scale Obumma had over McCain.
It will be a very decisive victory, I hope.
JamesK
31 Oct 12 at 8:41 am
I can’t be excited by Romney – while Obama has been a very poor president, Romney seems very protectionist.
Samuel J
31 Oct 12 at 9:26 am
Nonsense
JamesK
31 Oct 12 at 9:27 am
Samuel,
Your being too pessimistic.Where the result has been close(the winning margin being less than 5%),the winner of the popular vote has won on 7 occasions(1892,1916,1948,1960,1968,1976 & 2004) compared to winning in the Electoral College but not the popular vote(1876,1888 & 2000).
Historical results therefore suggest that the chance of the winner of the popular vote not winning in the electoral college is 30%.
sabena
31 Oct 12 at 9:27 am
Samuel
His China policy is my biggest concern about him. However I think he’s bullshitting. Look, if he manages China to open up more than that will be a really good thing.
His other trade policy is actually pretty decent as he wants to open trade agreements with nearly all of Sth Am.
JC
31 Oct 12 at 9:29 am