Budget politics at its most cynical

Niki Savva nails it:

Gillard and Swan have retreated from what was once a rock-solid, come hell or high water guarantee, confident they will pay little or no penalty because most economists and commentators will forgive them, business thinks it doesn’t matter, and the public never believed it would happen anyway.

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24 Responses to Budget politics at its most cynical

  1. ar

    Return to surplus in 12/13 (with Swan’s refrain, “three years early”!) was a cudgel Labor used against the coalition and a foil to budget questioning.

    Of course no one believes it will be achieved but that’s beside the point. They cannot be allowed to get away with it.

  2. H B Bear

    Smear and fear. It is all Labor has left to run on.

  3. Cold-Hands

    If they fear the reality of a failed surplus, we can look forward to a Q1 election next year. However, given that they’re already looking at electoral defeat with little chance of saving the furniture, it is more likely that they’ll cling to the perks and privileges of office until the very last minute, in the hope that a reverse Tampa or some other deus ex machina will magically appear and save their bacon.

  4. Cato the Elder

    They’ll try to see off AbbottAbbottAbbott and go to an election during the fall-out. It’s gonna get dirtier.

  5. ar

    “There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead” was used to shut down debate before the election.

    “Return to surplus 12/13, three years early” was used to shut down debate on Labor’s insane spending.

    Worst government ever.

  6. Alfonso

    Labor are now the natural party of govt in Australia….
    All this and they still get 47% TPP.
    A demographic disaster for Tony and his LibLabers.

  7. Brett

    If they can get an MSM leave pass on the Thompson / HSU scandal, the AWU scandal, the Carbon Tax, and the rest of their litany of failure and outright deceits, dumping the budget surplus will be a doddle. The electorate is so sensitized to the lies, obfuscation and the black-flips its just not newsworthy. Hardly worth talking about really.

  8. Borisgodunov

    Vee need Tovarishi ,firing squads,and a wooden wall ,to stop ricochets wounding shooters,line all up and FIRE!! NET PROBLEM TOVARISHI .

  9. Sleetmute

    Well, one economist/commentator that I KNOW won’t forgive them is Stephen Koukoulas. The Kouk has been going on for ages about how Labor will deliver – no, is in the process of delivering – a budget surplus and how it is the right thing to do when the economy is growing at about trend. I’m absolutely certain that the Kouk will hold his former boss to account and I look forward to it with bated breath.

  10. tbh

    Sleet, the Kouk is so in the tank for the ALP that I don’t listen to anything he says. He’s completely without credibility and not just because of his political past. He’s just plain wrong most of the time. I can’t believe Chris Joye has so much time for him, though I gather they are mates.

  11. Rabz


    What about some good ol’ fashioned show trials first, Squire?

  12. Tom

    Labor are now the natural party of govt in Australia….
    All this and they still get 47% TPP.
    A demographic disaster for Tony and his LibLabers.

    Alfonso, I’ve always thought you were a leftist just waiting for a few extra commies to arrive here to bring out your inner fruitcake.

    Just keep watching. There will be no Labor “natural party of government” after they next let us vote – only an exploded landmine of extreme left parties including the Greens and a small Labor rump competing with genuine independents (not the currrent thieving assclown Labor hangers-on), a dominant socialist conservative party (the Libs), the Nationals and – who knows? – maybe even an embryonic libertarian movement with a senator or two. The only thing that could significantly change that scenario, IMO, is if Abbott becomes a strong, stable leader. By the time he takes office, he will have been smeared more than any other politician in Australian history and will appreciate the priviledge more than anyone else we’ve put into the job.

    The idea that a corrupt trade union front is Australia’s “natural party of government” is a demented nightmare. Their primary vote will be lucky to crack 20% when we’ve finished with them at a real election. The decimation of Bligh’s rabble is the most reliable premonition of what’s ahead in Canberra.

    Your 47% 2PP is actually an optimistic projection of what a stinking, brawling pyre of leftist socialist-communist scum will be able to achieve a decade from now. But the public memory of the way these irresponsible delinquents ranksacked the national treasury will be a shared nightmare for decades to come after all the royal commissions and court cases.

    I speak as someone who, until all the shit that has happened to Australia in the past five years, would have considered myself a centrist “Labor type”, a fan of economic realists like Hawke and Keating who were replaced by the most extremist economic wreckers I’ve seen anywhere in the Western world in the past 40 years. I’ll now back anyone I consider will defend basic individual rights under common law, which have been trashed in this country. On that score, I expect the Libs will be a big ball of misery who will have to be fought.

  13. Alfonso

    You can zig and zag all you want, it doesn’t change the maths.

    With the comrades up to their ears in scum they STILL get 47% TPP
    and that’s chilling reality for non Labor, even if it’s LibLab, that other mob of welfare statists.

  14. Tom

    Alfonso, Labor is going to get nothing like 47% 2PP. O’Farrell got 64-vs-36% 2PP and Newman got 63-vs-37% 2PP. The very best this rabble can hope for is 40-60%. Considering the electorate first figured out it wanted to destroy Gillard and the ALP for their deceit in February 2011, they will have lived with their rage for 2.5 years by the time they’re allowed to vote. I’ll split the diff and say 83-62% 2PP. That would give Labor 26 seats in the Reps to the Coalition’s 124 and that is my very optimistic estimation of the 2013 carnage. We’ll compare notes in November next year.

  15. Tom

    I’ll split the diff and say 83-62%

    Pardon the late-night dyslexia: 38-62%.

  16. Rococo Liberal


    I think you will find the ALP will do better in number of seats Federally, because of compulsory preferential voting. In the NSW and Qld the voters only have to put ‘1’ in the box, they don’t have to give preferences. This meant that the ALP got precious little in preferences from Greens in NSW and Qld.

    Federally the ALP will pick up enough Green prefs to get over 40% of the TPP, but not much more.

  17. C.L.

    The wiggling imbo to visit US, save American economy, carry Obama to victory…

    Swan to warn US of ‘fiscal cliff’.

  18. Mother Hubbard's Dog

    RL, on the other hand, Labor enter the election already four seats down with the exit of Oakshott, Windsor, Thompson and Slipper.

  19. Entropy

    Well MHD, they could install a glamour candidate into Dobell and rescue it. Mind you, the trick would be finding someone with the appropriate glamour for that electorate and also impossible to attack. I’m thinking Rebecca Gibney levels of glamour.

  20. Sleetmute

    Tbh, I actually quite like the Kouk on positive macroeconomics. It’s his political views that I think are rubbish. As for Chris Joye, I think he makes a good housing analyst, but he has a poor feel for macro. Plus, I have never come across a person so uninhibited about blowing his own trumpet, quite often unjustiably. It’s like watching bad reality tv.

  21. Alfonso

    Bwaaa…the national polls are firm from Gallup to Essential to Newspoll….Labor + near 100% Green prefs is never lower than about 45 more often 47%.

  22. Tom

    Alfonso, Labor-Greens will struggle to get 40% 2PP when people and actually vote and half the 12% current other/independents protest vote breaks for the Coalition in a highly polarised electorate. Tell me how Labor is going to get more than 28% primary vote (26% in Qld in March) and the Greens more than 8%: any change from 36% 2PP will be a bonus for these fucking nation-wreckers. Happy to wager money nearer the event.

  23. Alfonso

    Done. You win 40 and below, me 45 and above. Talk closer.

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