Maybe Barrie Cassidy knows something:
That is why an election in the first half of next year – by mid-May – is now a serious option.
If the polls tighten – and the prospect of a surplus diminishes – then the Government would not need a lot of encouragement to go early. Just a whiff that the mood is improving in NSW would do it.
I have canvassed the prospect of an early election before.
The right to call an election can be thought of as an ‘American’ option* – the prime minister can call an election at any time up to a specified date. That option is valuable to the party in office. The opposition can under some very specific circumstances force an election – specifically the Parliament can force an election. But those situations are rare.
Factors that make options valuable include the time to expiry and volatility. Right now the time to expiry is over two years – the last election was less than a year ago. Nonetheless it looks like the government would be wiped out at any election held any time soon. That is because there is no volatility in public opinion – support for the government is a one-way bet, down. But the government is intending to shock the system – the introduction of the carbon tax might introduce volatility into the mix and then the option to call an election at will becomes very valuable. That combined with the time-value of options suggests that an election (barring unexpected by-elections) will be as late as possible.
Cassidy is suggesting some volatility in public opinion. Perhaps. Newspoll is looking much better for the government. Essential Media not so much.
Cassidy obviously has better contacts than I have, but I’m not convinced it pays the government to go early. I suspect they will be able to brazen out the lack of a budget surplus (the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook should tell us the state of the budget even if they did go early). Anger over electricity prices rises may have subsided for the while but a few election ads will take care of that.
The other consideration is that the government has to win seats to retain office. Normally a government would either have to simply hold seats or lose fewer than its majority to retain office. If and when Rob Oakeshott or Tony Windsor lose their seats government will change hands assuming the Coalition recovers Slipper’s seat and Wilkie retains his seat. That isn’t hard to imagine. So a classic sand bag strategy doesn’t do the trick. That is before we start thinking about Dobell or northern Tasmania where the forestry industry has collapsed.
* The term ‘American’ here relates to the option type, not the political system. The alternative to an American option is a European option that can only be exercised on the maturity date.
Surely the ALP cannot do anything but limit the damage at the next election, given how they squeaked in last time. They’d have to know that internally, regardless of any bluster intended for public consumption.
So: go early and limit the damage, or hold on to the reins and drive the gravy train for as long as possible.
Decisions, decisions…
Steve D
2 Nov 12 at 11:10 am
AJ noted this morning there is a big hole in the plan for parliamentary sitting days between March & May next year.
Token
2 Nov 12 at 11:18 am
They’ve got two options basically.
Ditch the witch, resurrect kevni ruff and go to an early election with damage limitation as the main priority, or blunder on until 30 November and see their beloved pardee destroyed forever.
As the Mole™ recently said – “a lot of these MPs are going to have to start seriously thinking very soon about whether or not they want to stay on the gravy train, or go down in the resultant wreck.”
As keato would say, put your money on the horse called Self Interest…
Rabz
2 Nov 12 at 11:18 am
I really can’t see the ALP going early unless the polls get a lot better – eg a 40% primary vote. And I don’t see that happening. But I think we should have fixed terms anyway. A very unpopular government isn’t going to call an early election anyway and the months of speculation before an election date just causes uncertainty. The only people who benefit are the media who get to speculate about it all the time.
Chris
2 Nov 12 at 11:19 am
Dec 2013 is a long time in politics. They’ll wait.
The last option will be cuddly Kylee friendly Kev about July, where they lose nothing if Julia is facing big defeat.
And you think they won’t go with the Cabinet detested but popular Kev to give them a shot at retaining govt?
Of course they will.
Alfonso
2 Nov 12 at 11:20 am
Sinc,
They’re effectively four seats down already.
oakeshitt
windbore
the musselman
shagger
That’s one serious starting handicap.
Rabz
2 Nov 12 at 11:22 am
I suspect the decision will depend on the outcome of the US presidential election next week – if it’s Romney they will hang out and have a target to distract us. If Obama comes in they will opt for an early election – Gillard and Obama look like to political peas in a pod, so to speak, and let’s not forget, Gillard et al are striving for their political goal, utopian as it is.
So here’s hoping Obama comes in, Gillard gets re-elected and then both economies are trashed beyond repair so that the punters will finally come to understand that there isn’t a free lunch.
Louis Hissink
2 Nov 12 at 11:25 am
Cathouse Craig’s seat is tight but I suspect it will elect another ALP member. Its a traditional Liebore electorate.
Brett
2 Nov 12 at 11:28 am
Not wise to put heads in sand about Newspolls. A few more good/better ones and election around Anzac Day, is my guess.
candy
2 Nov 12 at 11:28 am
Brett,
There’s no way they will retain shagger’s seat. They’ll also lose the neighbouring central coast seat (Robertson).
Rabz
2 Nov 12 at 11:41 am
Antony Green’s Federal Electoral Pendulum, for those who are interested.
Rabz
2 Nov 12 at 11:44 am
I can’t see the point of an early election next year,as any early house of representatives election means a separate senate election in 2014.A senate election can be called after 1 July 2013.If there is to be an early election it really has to be this year and that means it must be called this Sunday or next.
sabena
2 Nov 12 at 11:44 am
I hope that you are right; but I am not so sure. I know quite a few people up there and they are pissed off with Thompson but they all tell me they can’t vote lIberal.
Brett
2 Nov 12 at 11:46 am
I feel the rush of Fairy Floss Policies lately has an air of early election “look at our record of getting things done” about it. Not to win, but they would limit the damage by going before the coalition has its policies finalised and out there, plus the longer this parliament goes on the worse the PR is going to get on a number of fronts. Budget & Debt issues, Carbon Tax impacts, HSU, NSW ICAC, Young & Naive.
blogstrop
2 Nov 12 at 11:59 am
If they know they are going to be totally wiped out there is an advantage to going early and having a senate election in 2014. That way they restrict the landslide to the lower house only and removes the risk of the Libs having a majority in both houses.
Chris
2 Nov 12 at 12:03 pm
” I know quite a few people up there and they are pissed off with Thompson but they all tell me they can’t vote lIberal.”
there’s probably around 40%, perhaps a bit less, people who will always vote Labor, no matter what. even if the PM was corrupt, it just would not matter.
candy
2 Nov 12 at 12:14 pm
blogstrop
labor was trying to end the year like they did last year with the msm singing about how they had turned things around and had huge coup in putting Slipper in as Speaker, etc, etc. Unfortunately the opposition has spoilt the revelry this year with all those awkward questions about Gillard’s shonky lawyering. Some in the press gallery still can’t bring themselves to even report question time. It’s all gone wrong poor petals.
Keith
2 Nov 12 at 12:20 pm
Brett – fair enough. Dobell will definitely be one of the most interesting results to monitor on election night.
Rabz
2 Nov 12 at 12:25 pm
Re: Dobell – I reckon alot of older traditional Liebore voters in this area can’t stand the Pokies episode, see waste in how the asylum seekers issue was handled – and that is before you get to Shagger’s antics. Can’t vouch for Gen Y voters though they could vote anyways.
James
2 Nov 12 at 1:11 pm
The Libs should have won Roberston, Lindsay, probably Blacktown…
But the NSW Libs couldn’t possibly fuck it up again could they?
Could they?
ar
2 Nov 12 at 2:09 pm
Oh good lord, ar the media is a joke!
Tony Abbott sneezes leads to screaming headline:
“Liberal Party in savage brawl over sneeze”.
Gab
2 Nov 12 at 2:15 pm
Mal Brough is a lock for Fisher, there is no way Slipper would win if he bothered to run again. The surrounding state seat was something like 76% primary vote for LNP at the state election.
The only question is will Brough get straight back to the front bench, or spend a cycle in backbench purgatory?
I say frontbench, and immediately. Sweet revenge if he got his old job back, too, and expanded the NT intervention through co-operation with the states.
ALP probably will not run a candidate against Windsor and Oakeshot, but I doubt if they’ll get the numbers up. Libs will preference Wilkie again and he’ll probably get returned.
Bandt is a goner if Libs decide not to preference, but that would only lead back to Labor holding the seat. I think they should out of principal, though it would be fun to see a totally gelded Bandt sitting there with zero input into proceedings.
All in all it’s an impossible task for Labor to win even at 50/50.
As for the early election – it will advantage Labor to go before the half-senate is up, because historically out-of-cycle half-senate elections are bad for the incumbents. Especially when a newly-elected Abbott government would be trying to push carbon-tax dissolution through a hostile senate.
brc
2 Nov 12 at 2:27 pm
This is ridiculous. The Prime Minister would have to be very young and naive to call an early election.
Bill
2 Nov 12 at 3:29 pm
SInc, wouldn’t you say that the PM has a Call Option?
Rococo Liberal
2 Nov 12 at 4:59 pm