Well I can hope. But it is not entirely unrealistic. The following chart is a demographic breakdown from The Washington Post of all places that shows voting patterns by group. In not one instance has there been an increase and in some the difference is huge. The 56% loss of Republicans is the largest group defection but if there are still 39% who are voting for Obama but call themselves Republicans then I am not entirely sure what being a Repubican can mean to them. I know there’s still Ohio and I know that Intrade never gets it wrong, but there are reasons to hope, and these are some of them.
Both pictures from Instapundit
US U6 and CPI are higher (depsite periods of recessionary deflation) than when he got into office. This is why I suspect he cannot win.
Thank god there’s no racist black vote.
Hmmm…. I’m in the mood for a bit of pin-the-tail on the eeyore today. Get ready.
The odds on a Romney victory are insane.
I suspect so much money was put on Obama eaerlier for political inevitability bragging rights (worth 1-3 % points in the election).
It’s a better spend than tv ads and you don’t inevitably lose the money. In fact you can turn a profit.
I wagered more on Romney last night at $4.00 with Sportingbet (Thanx for the tip Rabz).
By the way if Wa-Po is correct above and 13% of Obumma 08 voters turn it will be a Romney tsunami.
In the face of all the complexities of state polls, turnout models, demographic models, fly-by-night polling agencies, small samples, and so on, I fall back on the top line results.
The major polling agencies – Pew, Gallup and Rasmussen – show a modest but robust lead for Romney. And in particular, Gallup, which is a sort of elder statesman of polling, has consistently predicted a Romney landslide with every poll for the past two months.
I don’t believe that the betting markets have been manipulated. There is certainly some benefit in doing so because journalists these days incorporate betting markets into their commentary. The odds of victory, according to the market, becomes part of the narrative. But it’s a bloody lot of money for a pretty minor talking point.
Unfortunately we can’t talk about why the betting market is wrong until we have hard empiricial evidence that it’s wrong. If Romney wins, that’s the time to dissect the betting market, but not before.
Republican voters speak out.
Looks like Metro’s back….. *groan*
Hey Sinc, how about a post dedicated to The Cat’s various trolls? We could have a poll and vote on our most beloved ones.
And not one of them thinks Mitt is going to pay their mortgage or buy them a mobile phone, unlike Oby’s low information mendicants.
Here’s another picture, Steve:
Under Obama, food stamp growth 75 times greater than job creation.
What a way to enjoy a Saturday – I look in briefly to see what is being discussed only to find the bigoted raving old communist goat is here, showing off his sacred 1960s Phantom skull ring (you’d post in three coupons from the comics and they’d send a numbered finger ring, denoting you as a brave member of the Phantom’s warriors)!
I’ll come back later after he shuffles off pushing his supermarket trolley with the wonky wheel, mumbling incoherently about abuse and spitting in another decade, from evil conservatives like Lee Rhiannon and the wharfies union, caused by George W. Howard, that awful Catholic AbbottAbbottAbbott … or someone.
Well whatever the cause Romney at $4.00 and Obumma at $1.22 is insane with the polls as they are, Independents breaking for Romney, social issues at a low priority and economic at a high on the polls and GOP enthusiasm at a high.
Why shouldn’t we talk about it as well as take advantage of it?
Two other reasons to consider.
1. The bizarre influence of Nate Silver
2. International 90% polling for Obama because of the unopposed media bias in the western world outside of the US.
Romney and Obama in Ohio
WOW! 20,000-30,000 Turn Out to See Romney-Ryan in Ohio …(Obama Draws Crowds Less than 4,000)
2,800 supporters turned out to see Obama in Hilliard, Ohio this morning.
4,000 turned out to see Obama in Springfield, Ohio this afternoon.
3,800 supporters turned out to see Barack Obama at his final campaign stop today in Lima, Ohio.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/wow-20000-30000-turn-out-to-see-romney-ryan-in-ohio-obama-draws-crowds-less-than-4000/
Line of the night:
Romney: “He asked his supporters to vote for revenge — for revenge. Instead I ask the American people to vote for love of country.”
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/02/20000-and-growing-for-romney-ryan-rally-in-west-chester-ohio/
Whoa…. every kid in our neighborhood had one… don’t remember the numbering though.
WARNING…
If it turns out not to be a tight contest and Romney wins, then the MSM will be well and truly, obviously, hung out to dry. Let’s hope it happens. Worst case would be an Obama win due to their connivance and a continuation of their deceits. If so, then poor sad America and a further decline of the West.
MGCQ, whoa there feller. Don’t go sullying the Fellowship of the Phanto Ring like that by implying that El Numero was a member. Impossible.
Will the chad hang again?
How inappropriate, hurtful and – what’s that other modern nothing word? – unacceptable! I feel so – ummm – bullied, yes!
I have a fogged up recollection, Rudiau, of comparing with my mate Peter C our relative proximity to the Phantom’s inner circle, perhaps it was numbered on the (personally signed, pure gold embossed) certificate?
In any event being recognised, even if only by a number, was a vital symbol to me at that time in my unremarkable young life when I had no personal achievement of any sort to boast about and future prospects for little change in that.
Quite so JakartaJaap – a useful vehicle to me a few moments ago however I will accept my punishment at he next quarterly meeting … in the deep, dark Congo isn’t it?
Hi Guys
Just returned from a holiday in NY…great timing!
Anyway want to place a bet on the Election, but Sportingbet advise that payout is not until swearing in…which is January! Long time to be sitting on winnings!
I’m willing to off 100:1 odds that Obama will still be President of the United States in 10 days time.