ABS data out today

The ABS posted some economic data. My initial take is that the numbers are not looking good.

Retail figures have been flat this financial year:

The seasonally adjusted estimate for Australian turnover was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in October 2012 following a rise of 0.5% in September 2012 and a rise of 0.3% in August 2012.

The seasonally adjusted figures are down on the June figures.

Mineral exploration is down:

The seasonally adjusted estimate for mineral exploration expenditure fell 14.7% (or -$146.9m) to $855.4m in the September quarter 2012. The largest contributor to the fall this quarter was Western Australia (down 19.0% or -$108.7m).

Then add to that:

In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 1.7% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.9%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.7%. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.2%.

The National Accounts will be released on Wednesday at 11 am. In the meantime the market is expecting a 25 basis point decrease in the official interest rate to be announced tomorrow. Despite the rhetoric low interest rates are not a sign of strength.

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10 Responses to ABS data out today

  1. Skuter

    Mineral exploration is down

    Hellooooo, MRRT anyone?
    No, that couldn’t be the reason, because, as I’m sure m0nty will tell us, resource rent taxes don’t affect behaviour. It is Tony Abbott’s fault and in any case shut up…it is a non-story…it will peter out any day now.

  2. thefrollickingmole

    Little bit of news from a Nickel producer I worked for..

    I usually get a bit of Christmas relief work, not this year.

    5% pay cut across the board.
    30% of employees on site sacked. 10% in head office Perth.
    Re-negotiate with all suppliers for better prices.
    May be more sackings in the wings.

    Apparently no nickel miners in Oz are faring any better, share price from near $7.00, touching 70 cents now.

    Local gold mine is also sacking/cancelling exploration etc, but that may be more to do with the parent South African companies woes. (so rumor goes)

    But hey, those greedy plutocrats eh Swanny?

  3. Anne

    Skuter 5.05
    Hellooooo, MRRT anyone?

    Also the quagmire or red and green regulatory requirements like relocating the yellow belly tit sap sucker!

    It costs a fortune to comply and takes forever to get any project off the ground…or is that INTO the ground.

  4. Harold

    Lower interest rates to stimulate investment, done so when stimulation is needed. I thought that was macro eco 101?

  5. Keith

    Gerry Harvey hasn’t been cacking himself for nothing. Shoppers are not opening their wallets.

  6. Sinclair Davidson

    Harold – can’t push on a piece of string.

  7. m0nty

    Shoppers are opening their wallets, but not for local retailers who still think Click Frenzy was way out radical grody to the maxx, dude. More the virtual wallets.

  8. wreckage

    Shoppers are opening their wallets, but not for local retailers who still think Click Frenzy was way out radical grody to the maxx, dude. More the virtual wallets.

    Fortunately the Retailers Association has the answer! Ban people from buying stuff online. Groundbreaking stuff.

  9. wreckage

    But hey, those greedy plutocrats eh Swanny?

    Yeah and their gross wealth-pump machines that perform slightly worse over time than the market average. How dare they be strictly mediocre in profitability! They need to share the ordinariness around!

  10. Lets hope that the markets are right and retail sales hold up well as they are doing. My shares against my loans will be paying even more assuming the banks pass on the what seems normal now 20 basis points. If you can borrow money then now is a good time it is like free money assuming the trends above hold. Households are also deleveraging everything is rosey except our governments’ spending.

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