The ABS has just released the Government Finance Statistics for the September quarter:
In the September quarter 2012:
- Taxation revenue decreased 16.3% to $92,456m.
- General government sector expenditure exceeded revenue resulting in a GFS net operating balance of –$17,418m.
Taxation revenue is down on the previous quarter but it isn’t clear how much it is down compared to expectations. Total revenue for the quarter was $115,114m – down 15.9% on the previous quarter. Again I’m not sure what expected of forecast revenue was.
All up, combined with yesterdays data I’m expected a rate cut this afternoon (although the shadow RBA recommends otherwise) and not-so-good numbers tomorrow when the national accounts are released.
A year-on-year comparison might help. For all levels of government, compared with the same quarter last year, tax revenue is up from $83,585M to $92,456M, and total revenue is up from $105,343M to $115,114M.
Gavin R Putland
4 Dec 12 at 11:58 am
These articles are sort of relevant. The spin machine is on the overdrive cycle.
This guy is such a twit:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/RBA-interest-rates-cut-inflation-AUD-dollar-pd20121204-2MQY8?opendocument&src=idp&emcontent_asx_financial-markets&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=143735&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary
Whereas this is just out and out ALP campaigning for the stupid demographic.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/fiscal-NBN-budget-politcs-off-balance-debt-joe-hoc-pd20121204-2MSR9?opendocument&src=idp&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=143735&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary
“Mining boom mark 1 in 1997″
Whatever dude. Don’t remember decrying spending cuts, do you?
.
4 Dec 12 at 12:05 pm
At this rate, we are looking at a $26.5b federal deficit for 12/13.
Decidedly short of +1.5b.
Wayne Swan, World’s Greatest Treasurer®.
2dogs
4 Dec 12 at 7:45 pm
Roll up, roll up, roll up
Watch Koukoulas give a dissertation on economics while Wayne Swan drinks a glass of water.
You will not see Swannies lips move.
Leigh Lowe
4 Dec 12 at 8:55 pm
It would be interesting to know what the FY13 Budget predicted.
If it is down on Budget by anything like 16%, it can’t just be the Mining Tax.
Other taxes must be melting as well.
Leigh Lowe
4 Dec 12 at 8:58 pm
As Gavin said you have to compare qtr to qtr. these stats are meaningless. Why they show is about -1.4b$ of budget, not $26b.
Mundi
4 Dec 12 at 9:40 pm
I fear the worst here. Based on anyones maths, we will go nowhere near getting the magic surplus. Suprise suprise.
At least if Swanny did get his +1.5B then we would be spared what will no doubt be another catastrophic hip bending fubble of the books to make it.
Pizzaskase
5 Dec 12 at 8:25 am
Does sportsbet still have $1.60 odds for a deficit?
I might put the SMSF on it.
Alx
5 Dec 12 at 11:05 am
ATO: just kidding BTW. I know you guys don’t have a sense of humour.
“.”:
In your second link, I got to the paragraph where he says “So which figure is right? Tax-to-GDP of 22.1 per cent or 26 per cent?” and then lost interest, because the guy is clearly an idiot. Hockey is talking about tax plus (net?) borrowings to GDP, not just tax-to-GDP, which is presumably a far better measure.
How do these people get (presumably) paid jobs to write this guff?
Alx
5 Dec 12 at 11:16 am