That is a line from Niki Savva’s op-ed today.
Although Labor insiders reckon they have been spared Armageddon, they still predict Abbott will win with a big majority or a very comfortable majority, and describe Labor’s poll recovery, such as it is, as “an Indian summer”. OK, it may be the wrong time of year for that, but you get the drift. They just cannot see, despite the improvement, how the remaining gap can be made up. Well, actually some can – with a leadership change – but there are still too few of them to make it happen.
Mark the Ballot has provided a simulation of election results based on current polling trends.
It looks to me, on current polling figures, that the ALP will win somewhere between 55 and 70 seats at the next election. That is slightly better than where they were a year ago when Possum undertook a similar exercise. Then he had the ALP winning somewhere between 44 and 64 seats.