Defeat is inevitable

That is a line from Niki Savva’s op-ed today.

Although Labor insiders reckon they have been spared Armageddon, they still predict Abbott will win with a big majority or a very comfortable majority, and describe Labor’s poll recovery, such as it is, as “an Indian summer”. OK, it may be the wrong time of year for that, but you get the drift. They just cannot see, despite the improvement, how the remaining gap can be made up. Well, actually some can – with a leadership change – but there are still too few of them to make it happen.

Mark the Ballot has provided a simulation of election results based on current polling trends.

It looks to me, on current polling figures, that the ALP will win somewhere between 55 and 70 seats at the next election. That is slightly better than where they were a year ago when Possum undertook a similar exercise. Then he had the ALP winning somewhere between 44 and 64 seats.

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51 Responses to Defeat is inevitable

  1. They should lose and deserve to, but a return to power by them would be an unmitigated disaster for Australia. In any case, all else being equal, they are certain to lose Oakeshott and Windsor as they will get the most baseball bats, seats they need to make up elsewhere.

    I personally will rejoice the day Gillard gets the arse.

  2. Samuel J

    Death is inevitable. So are taxes. But not defeat.

  3. Jannie

    Even if I agreed I wouldnt publically admit to it. This sort of headline can only lead to over confidence or even hubris, when continual focus is required. A thin 51/49 lead is better than, 55/45 at this point.

    I am with SamJ, only death and taxes are inevitable, humans compete for what remains.

  4. m0nty

    Is there anything more boring than a breathless report of off the record conversations between MSM political journalists and disaffected Labor backbenchers? Two sets of losers, neither of whom have any idea of what the public really wants. Polemics like this one sum up why nobody outside the wonks listens to people like Savva.

  5. candy

    My prediction is it will depend on how many people will decide to vote for Tony Abbott despite not particularly liking him, but simply to try and get rid of j. Gillard as the supreme goal.

  6. m0nty

    BTW Sinc, I think your link is borked, this is the right one.

    [Fixed. Thanks. Sinc]

  7. harrys on the boat

    m0nty, shitfer, numbers, Bob, SteveC etc. all vote. There’s enough fuckwits in this country to make sure anything can happen.

  8. lotocoti

    This sort of headline…

    …should only be seen once Red Kerry reprises his 1996 election night performance.

  9. A different JC

    I think things will get worse for Labor. They’ve exhausted their fabricated attack on Abbott, and the AWU scandal still has a long way to run. It may not even be in full swing yet.

    And the focus on union shenanigans will keep the electorate in mind of the disproportionate number of union and industrial law functionaries who’ve been rewarded with parliamentary seats.

    [Please change your Name - JC is already taken. Sinc]

  10. Brian4Jesus

    This is great stuff, Niki should be featured more often, its made my day.

  11. Sinclair Davidson

    m0nty – I think you’re making the same mistake the Romney supporters made – look at the serious data analysis and the betting market.

  12. handjive

    My vote in 2013 will be informal.

    I will NOT be encouraging any political party who pushes the UN-IPCC fraud of useless/senseless action against invisible carbon dioxide, a plant food.

    There might be other issues but, none will matter if we have power shortages and give all our money to the UN.

  13. Lysander Spooner

    Handjive – you could start a party called the Climate Is Not Changing Due to Human Activity Party (TCINCDTHAP) :-) but I don’t think that’ll work (unfortunately)

  14. brc

    Hubris and overconfidence are poison to political movements. Discipline and focus are the predictors of a winning campaign. Two things sorely missing from 2007 but present in much larger quantities for 2010 as far as the coalition is concerned.

  15. min

    Can I remind everyone that statistically 50% of the population are below average intelligence which is why it is hard to predict the outcome especially if a lot of goodies are promised.

  16. Louis Hissink

    Steve Kates’ post in Quadrant is relevant.

    But predicting the future? Based on min’s comment I think the odds are on the Gillard government being returned.

    People who I would usually associate as Lib/Nats voters are uniformly scathing of Abbott, preferring Turnbull as LOO, and then I wonder where this lot would fall into the “min IQ demographic” as well.

    We are surely living in interesting times.

  17. m0nty

    m0nty – I think you’re making the same mistake the Romney supporters made – look at the serious data analysis and the betting market.

    There’s no question the poll numbers are still against Gillard at the moment, Sinc. However, they have been squeezing up for months now, and it’s still way too early to be so presumptive about any result in just under a year’s time.

    Calling the recent poll tightening an “Indian summer” for Gillard is ridiculous. The more sober analysis has tied the poll fluctuations to the carbon price, as Abbott’s scare campaign has been thoroughly neutralised by reality.

    The big ace in the hole for Gillard next year is the NBN. The quicker the network roll-out proceeds next year, the more downward pressure will come to bear on Abbott’s poll numbers. Not that he has much further he can fall.

  18. candy

    ” think the odds are on the Gillard government being returned.”

    Louis I also think there’s a good chance of that happening based on promises of things (though completely unfunded).

    But in the end i think it will be how many people dislike j. Gillard and can’t stand a bar of her and want her out. It’s kind of personal after her deceptions/C.thomson/trashing of parliament.
    Can she survive that?

  19. Alx

    Someone over on MSN blog had an interesting idea:

    Start a party called the Labour Party (spelling intended) and post candidates with names like:
    Julie Gillard
    Nicole Roxon
    Bill Shortone
    etc.

    Apparently there is legal precedent over in WA for this kind of thing. All you need is for a couple of people in the actual Labor party to be involved, and it is all legit. I heard it at a press conference.

  20. Anne

    All you need is for a couple of people in the actual Labor party to be involved…

    Why?

  21. Dr Faustus

    Why?

    Because it would be a sleazy, unprincipled, smartarse stunt – and you’d need a couple of experts to carry it off.

  22. Anne

    Oh, well said Faustus…’cause labor would never do anything the slightest bit sleazy, underhanded, corrupt, dirty, creepy…kshdu…snfy….jshsu… stop me…

    Experts?….where do I sign up for that gig?

  23. .

    The big ace in the hole for Gillard next year is the NBN. The quicker the network roll-out proceeds next year, the more downward pressure will come to bear on Abbott’s poll numbers. Not that he has much further he can fall.

    Fucking jesus that’s funny. Thanks for the laughs, monster.

  24. “Fucking jesus that’s funny. Thanks for the laughs, monster”

    That’s ludicrous, even by Monty’s standards. The NBN rollout (or lack thereof) is an albatross around Gillard’s neck – part of the official PM handover from Rudd.

  25. Brian4Jesus

    The 2.14 comment takes us where? surely you can contribute something more constructive than to take the Lords name in vain

  26. Anne

    Dot and Boozy, Monty’s ridiculous comments are just baiting you.

    Brian, for christ’s sake…freedom of speech is a good thing….okay?

  27. tbh

    I would cautious in celebrating too early. The ALP have come back before. Think that unloseable 1993 election (in hindsight, we might have dodged a bullet there — Hewson would have been a disaster).

    With that said, if we are to believe that the betting markets got it right with the 2012 presidential election, then you’d have to believe that the ALP are sunk next year. Given that they are the worst government in our history, you’d want to bloody hope so.

  28. Steve of Glasshouse

    Fucking jesus that’s funny. Thanks for the laughs, monster”

    That’s ludicrous, even by Monty’s standards. The NBN rollout (or lack thereof) is an albatross around Gillard’s neck – part of the official PM handover from Rudd.

    That’d be the National Bogan’s Network methinks..

  29. Dr Faustus

    labor would never do anything the slightest bit sleazy, underhanded, corrupt, dirty, creepy…kshdu…snfy….jshsu…

    They would not know how. And anyway, there’s no proof. Or nearly not much.

    Look, over there, there’s a misogynist…

  30. Anne

    <block quote

    Look, over there, there’s a misogynist…

    Where? I don’t see it. Must have fallen over the physical cliff!

  31. Entropy

    Given that the NBN advertising tempo appears to have picked up, Monty may be onto something even if it only identifying the latest ALP talking points.

    Of course, for the government the big risk with this advertising if someone actually decides to get them some NBN goodness, only to discover:
    A) Under the most likely scenario it is unavailable to them ; or
    B) the cost of the promised 100mbps is much more than what they are currently paying for ADSL or cable, forcing them to settle for a slower service which is comparable to their current one, and which point they don’t bother.

  32. Samuel J

    A levy is the most sensible way to pay for it. Australians have shown repeatedly they accept such trade-off levies for healthcare, gun control, flood repair, a war effort. So long as levies are for a patently good purpose, which in this case it is, they will support them.

    That’s also what Niki wrote in that piece. She should stick to politics and keep well away from economics.

  33. Brian4Jesus

    So Anne, Dot contributed what exactly? or did he just waste some space.

  34. Sinclair Davidson

    Samuel – that is a political statement. Any (half-way decent) government in Canberra could get away with a levy. The only levy that has failed that I can recall is the east-Timor levy.

  35. .

    The failure of the NBN should sink the ALP for at least a decade.

    Turnbull needs to start hitting hard.

  36. Pedro

    Yes, same thinking as the medicare levy. If you think you’re getting something it won’t feel like a tax increase, apparently.

    I noticed the NBN ad explosion and wondered whether they are thinking about March, but I spose it’s more likely intended to reinforce the positive agenda as lard-bums xmas message.

    It’s still early to get confident, but it feels like this is a govt now held in wide contempt. What a pity that Turnbull can’t get sensible on AGW and have the leadership. He’s a better class of flakey than Abbott.

  37. Pedro

    Mark, for most people it won’t fail for a while yet, but Turnbull should keep plugging away. He slaughtered some idiot on the ABC last week or the week before, but some many people seem to want to imagine fibre to the home is a productivity boon despite all reason and logic being against them.

  38. Eddystone

    Australians have shown repeatedly they accept such trade-off levies for healthcare, gun control, flood repair, a war effort. So long as levies are for a patently good purpose, which in this case it is, they will support them.

    The voters only think those things are “for a patently good purpose” is because the politicians lie about them.

  39. As far as Labor in Queensland is concerned, the Newman government with its ridiculously intense infighting is looking pretty embarrassing at the moment, and it was only this morning that the CM was talking about this state’s negative growth due to the sudden government spending cuts. (The surprise later in the day was part time jobs hiding the effect of full time job losses, though.)

    It is providing quite a bit of fodder for Labor to campaign on, in terms of warnings about what it does to an economy to make large cuts incautiously, and that it’s not healthy to give any government too large a majority.

    It might help swing some back to Labor federally. A bit.

  40. m0nty

    The NBN rollout (or lack thereof) is an albatross around Gillard’s neck – part of the official PM handover from Rudd.

    Like the carbon price, which is now bedded in for good and is delivering a rebound in the polls for Gillard as voters realise how wrong Abbott was?

  41. Pedro

    Monty, the govt admits that the carbon tax reduces economic growth and we are now looking at reduced economic growth. Where’s the upside for the govt in this:

    Abbott: you’re big fuckwits.

    Gillard: where not quite as big fuckwits as you claimed, nyah nyah nyah.

  42. JC

    WTF?

    Stepford, who said you’re allowed back here?

    Moderator! Stepford crashed through the concrete barricade in his 2nd hand Prius. Only the seat and him are left.

  43. JC

    Yea Stepford… Everyone in Queensland loves the Labor brand so much that they want to punish the Libs by supporting Federal labor.

    In fact Federal labor will win seats as a result. lol.

  44. Tracey

    Steve from Brisbane, if Campbell Newmann was seen to walk on water the Courier Mail would somehow manage to portray him as Satan incarnate.

  45. Rob

    Like the carbon price, which is now bedded in for good and is delivering a rebound in the polls for Gillard as voters realise how wrong Abbott was?

    Moth (got love the iPad’s predictive text)
    monty,
    if you love the pwice on carbon so much – pay my fucking power bill!

  46. Splatacrobat

    Budget deficit…….tick tick tick

  47. wreckage

    Like the carbon price, which is now bedded in for good and is delivering a rebound in the polls for Gillard

    The increase in my power bills was worse than I expected. We are seeing the last stages of ALP transformation from the worker’s party into an inner city leftist bullshit outfit.

  48. Tiny Dancer

    Labor is hated in Qld. What’s happening now is a minor correction to the massacre earlier this year. Gillard. is. gone.

    The misogynist and the doughnut inhaler, what a pair of dumb twerps.

  49. entropy

    Turnbull, Pedro?

    Do I need to remind you that he is opposition spokesman for media and communications. His opposite number is Stephen Conroy. Conroy, mental midget that he is, is still standing. WTF is Turnbull doing with his target rich environment?

    If he can’t make Conroy look like a goose everyday, the man is a lazy show pony and not even trying. And some clowns bullshit he would be a good opposition leader. How did he go last time?

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