Nice numbers from Essential and Newspoll as well

Tuesday update: Same story from Newspoll.

Gillard (mid session): “The worst is over”.

Coalition up, ALP and Greens down, Gillard approval down. Even John Quiggin got some joy from the poll (see link down page).

UPDATE: Interesting to see how John Quiggin picked up a different message from the poll (down the bottom re ownership of power plants). What about a few more “Like” votes for my comments, I can only vote once you know!

STOP PRESS: Don’t miss Grannie Sloan’s column in The Australian.

Update: The 2PP courtesy of Mark the Ballot.

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91 Responses to Nice numbers from Essential and Newspoll as well

  1. JC

    The % that makes me most happy is to see the green slime numbers down again.

  2. entropy

    So, no significant change for months.

    So, if we not risking claims of a death threat, what should I wait on my verandah for that is more emphatic than a baseball bat?*

    Suggestions welcome.

    *This mob make me miss Keating. At least he had some style, not like this lot (shudders remembering the Roxon Christmas ‘message’).

  3. Infidel Tiger

    But mOnty and SfB told me that Gillard was ascendant and the double fist pumping misogynist truckie was finsished?

  4. entropy

    FME. The LNP have got to do something about Katter. Make him overreach into a more overt socialism. It cant be people wanting to vote for those two dicks in NSW.

  5. Poor Old Rafe

    No complacency! Everything is going pear-shaped and still the ALP vote does not collapse into the 20s.

  6. With Labor eliminated in Qld, to get a diversity of representation, the people have to go somewhere. Bound to happen at what 78-7 ?

    Got to have options. If Labor collapses, there will be something to fill the gap.

  7. Keith

    Votes don’t come cheap, and Gillard has borrowed heavily to keep the bribes coming. Can’t see how labor preference can remain above 30 otherwise.
    And beautiful numbers for the Greens – may the trend continue.

  8. Leigh Lowe

    Jeez …. When I saw the headline “Nice Numbers” I thought I must have come to the wrong place.
    “Surely the Returned Potato Peeler hasn’t had an attitude implant?” I thought.
    Sadly, no.

  9. Anne

    There is a god after all…Brian4jesus come back….all is forgiven!

  10. MDMConnell

    Even better, Newspoll has broken out of its pro Labor funk and bounced back to 54-46!

  11. entropy

    yeah, but that was only because the previous newspoll numbers were wrong. I wonder if this is the first election the polls don’t change right up to election day?

  12. Mk50 of Brisbane

    Oh, I give up then.

    Stupid intarwebs

  13. mareeS

    I think it was our household that changed the figures. They always ask if there’s anyone under the age of 30 to answer the survey. The spouse and I don’t qualify, but our son, 29, is home on R&R after breaking his ankle at work in the Qld gas fields. I handed the phone to him, he’s a rabid Gillard hater, and gave it his all.

  14. JC

    Which makes me think they will dump the lying slapper into the new year. Why wouldn’t they if she’s seen to be considered toxic by the electorate?

  15. 2dogs

    “and still the ALP vote does not collapse into the 20s”

    Look at the voter behaviour question, Rafe. For the Labor primary vote to go to the 20s means not only every swinging voter choosing the Libs, but the Libs also winning over people who have never voted Lib before.

    As it stands, over a quarter of the current Liberal vote are swinging voters, most of whom the party has held onto for over two years now.

  16. C.L.

    JC, of course.

    Gillard will be dumped if she continues this epic, history-making run of fail.

    That is inevitable.

  17. brc

    I said before, it’s not a nice number until the alp vote is in the twenties.

  18. Cold-Hands

    Which makes me think they will dump the lying slapper into the new year. Why wouldn’t they if she’s seen to be considered toxic by the electorate?

    Unless she calls a snap election to force the troops to rally behind her. How did Milton put it? “Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven”. The problem of the House of Reps elections falling out of sync with the senate if an election is called before August 2013 would see the Abbott Government having to deal with the current Upper House, with all the attendant problems of dealing with the Greens.

  19. brc

    The coalition now want to see it through until August or they fall prey to an unfriendly senate. To be honest , another 6 months don’t matter now. It’s doubtful labor is going to turn the corner with more cash promises on the never never with their surplus promise in tatters.

  20. C.L.

    Newspoll out: Gillard dumped.

    VOTER support for Labor and Julia Gillard has fallen after the final week of parliament, ending the government’s recent momentum and allowing Tony Abbott to edge closer as the nation’s preferred prime minister.

    After recovering and holding voter support in recent weeks, Labor’s primary vote has slipped back to its level at the start of the year, and the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader is now the narrowest since September.

    According to the last Newspoll survey for the year, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, Labor’s primary vote fell four percentage points to a six-month low of 32 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote rose three points to 46 per cent – its highest level since the end of August.

    With Greens’ primary support unchanged on 11 per cent and based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition opened a clear election-winning lead of 54 per cent to Labor’s 46 per cent.

  21. Gab

    Beat me to it by 30 secs, CL. If only I hadn’t refreshed before posting. Drat! Foiled again.

  22. C.L.

    Nice to see that Newspoll has sacked John McTernan’s cousin from its survey team too.

  23. Puff Of Smoke

    So 1% of Greens voters decided they couldn’t vote Labor or Liberal and turned Independent in a week? It shows the Green voters really have no idea who they’ve been supporting all this time.

  24. H B Bear

    Hamish McSporran will be choking on his haggis. Trying to sell Gillard is like trying to shift toxic waste.

  25. twostix

    FME. The LNP have got to do something about Katter. Make him overreach into a more overt socialism. It cant be people wanting to vote for those two dicks in NSW.

    Katter and others have the only partially sensible gun policy in the country which is where quite a few of those “other” primary votes are going.

  26. twostix

    Newspoll out: Gillard dumped.

    Julie Bishop in two weeks single handedly utterly destroyed months of carefully crafted Gillard / PMO’s office / Cabinet / ABC / Press Gallery “Abbott is a Mysogynist” narrative construction.

    You’d think Gillard would be considering how utterly hopeless she is by now given that this is at least the tenth Grand Narrative that has failed.

  27. Puff Of Smoke

    Unfortunately I work with a bunch of lefties that blindly listen to whatever the ABC and Crikey tell them. According to them Bishop is a joke flogging the dead horse. Makes for a very uncomfortable work day.

  28. C.L.

    Breaking: Gillard has won one of the polls!

    It’s the prestigious Fairfax Media Daily Life website poll!

    THE Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, had no idea of the import or impact of her now-famous ”misogyny” speech after she gave it. It was up to the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, to read the zeitgeist.

    Ms Gillard – named on Tuesday as Australia’s most influential female voice in a poll by Fairfax Media’s Daily Life website – recounted how she sat down at the despatch box in the House of Representatives after delivering the scorching speech, directed at the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, and prepared to get on with other work.

    ”I thought I had given a hard-hitting speech but I didn’t have any inkling of the effect of it,” Ms Gillard said.

  29. twostix

    ”I thought I had given a hard-hitting speech but I didn’t have any inkling of the effect of it,” Ms Gillard said.

    As of right now Gillards one single moment of Prime Ministerial “truimph” is that she was briefly mentioned on the front page of Jezebel.com alongside a story about anal fingering.

  30. sdog

    As of right now Gillards one single moment of Prime Ministerial “truimph” is that she was briefly mentioned on the front page of Jezebel.com alongside a story about anal fingering.

    It’s important for rational people everywhere to keep that in mind.

  31. Chris M

    Yes, Katter is good in some areas IMO, he seems a God and guns sort of guy.

  32. Alfonso

    Pickering has Julia by the throat.
    His cartoons are street sweepers.
    “allowing Tony Abbott to edge closer as the nation’s preferred prime minister.” 20 seats is some ‘edging’.

  33. johno

    What a hideous bunch of Emily Listers in that Daily Life poll. Says everything about the kind of narrow minded bigots who would vote in such a poll.

  34. Brett

    Don’t get too excited; the automatice enrollment amendments to the Electoral Act will save the day for Labor.

  35. Leigh Lowe

    I suspect the Christmas dinner for Oakeshott, Windsor and ALP members sitting on margins of less than 5% will be a glum affair.
    Except for Kevin-07 …. he will have his best “cat-got-the-cream” face on.

  36. Leigh Lowe

    Unbelievable that the Slapper-in-Chief is still pumping up her own tyres over the misogyny speech.
    That was the point that the Opposition decided that the gloves were off and started to hold the lying grub to account for her part in the AWU scandal.
    Is it still “game on”?

  37. Adam Diver

    Look at how news.com.au puts it:

    “Labor would surprisingly lose election now”

    WTF? What rock have they been under since the minority government was formed? Who is seriously surprised, a good day ruined almost immediately.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/labor-would-surprisingly-lose-election-now-latest-newspoll/story-fncynjr2-1226534076441

  38. Dr Faustus

    Grannie Sloan

    Those are brave words, right there…

  39. candy

    The economy might have something to do with it. It is difficult for many to make ends meet, price of food high and job security/enough hours troubling. The NDIS etc, where’s the money coming from.

  40. Dr Faustus

    Except for Kevin-07 …. he will have his best “cat-got-the-cream” face on.

    Get ready for lots of Kevin in the media over the summer. The little master will be churning out papers, thought pieces and commentary as fast as he can go – plus his trademark folksy-nerdy, uncommon man of the people schtick wherever there is a TV camera.

    He knows he has his last hurrah in the Autumn session, before Labor disappears under a rock for the next 15 years.

  41. Nuke Gray

    Julia will be PM until the next federal election- because nobody else will want such a poisoned position! Then, Kevin might be re-appointed, though the number of people who worked with him up close and couldn’t stand it seems to show Labor might go for someone else. Perhaps Swan will be the one they put forward to lead whatever is left of Labor.

  42. C.L.

    “Labor would surprisingly lose election now”

    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

  43. Brian of Moorabbin

    What? No m0nty in here to comment about Newspoll now matching the Essential (and Galaxy) polling figures? SfB? SteveC?

    Still waiting for the spin-meister approved talking points and “AbbottAbbottAbbott” meme from ALP HQ and GetUp obviously…

  44. Mike of Marion

    Just listened to Tony Wright being interviewed by ABC Radio 891 Adelaide – all Wright would talk about is the ‘electorate dismay’ with Campbell Newman of Qld. And that this would translate to effect AbbottAbbottAbbott in the forthcoming Fed Election.

    Will not accept that Gillard is a lying manipulative communist

  45. C.L.

    Torrent of mud, says Emmo!

    A phrase perfectly suited for this government’s veritable diarrhea of disaster.

    Government frontbencher Craig Emerson has blamed Tony Abbott’s “deeply personal” attacks on the Prime Minister for Labor’s slump in the latest opinion poll…

    “If Mr Abbott thinks that he can slide into the Lodge on a torrent of mud, he is mistaken,” he said.

    “The Australian people will not elect anyone Prime Minister on the basis of a smear campaign against the existing Prime Minister of Australia.

    “They will want alternative policies from Mr Abbott – (but) they won’t get them, he’s not interested, he’s not capable.

    “All he’s got is his aggressive negativity, and in the end the Australian people do not see that as qualifying someone for the prime ministership of Australia.”

    The ABC is shellshocked. This is reportage:

    The Coalition’s parliamentary attack was led by Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, although Mr Abbott went so far as to suggest Ms Gillard broke the law and called for a judicial inquiry into the matter.

    However, he later toned down his language to describe Ms Gillard’s behaviour as “possibly unlawful”.

    Ms Gillard demanded Mr Abbott apologise for the accusation, saying he “spectacularly failed” to produce any evidence to back up the claim.

    When asked about today’s opinion poll results in the context of the Coalition’s parliamentary tactics, Mr Abbott this morning moved to distance himself from the attack.

    “In the last week of the Parliament, I was launching my book and I was promoting our positive plan,” he told reporters in Sydney this morning.

    “I think the public want a better life, I think they want a better government, I think they want less pressure on their cost of living, and I think they want evidence that the government is focused on them, not focused on itself.”

    Abbott did not “tone down” his language about the proven crimes of Slushgate nor did he “distance himself” from Bishop’s brilliant attack on the Lying Rodent.

  46. Tel

    They always ask if there’s anyone under the age of 30 to answer the survey.

    Not that I’m any legal expert, but I believe there is no penalty for inventing survey results. I’m sure a lot of people do.

  47. Gab

    Anyone wants to see an example of a “torrent of mud” they need look no further than Emerson’s copious tweets. (Does he actually do any work?)

  48. Cold-Hands

    Grannie Sloan

    Those are brave words, right there…

    Truth is a defence… Besides, everybody loves Grannies.

  49. candy

    The misogynist speech was a torrent of mud.

  50. Paul

    In a way the LNP in Queensland are illustrating one of the problems of a massive landslide. You then become your own Opposition because there is no cohesive force on the outside of Government and you start infighting. We have pile-a-chuck and Skatt-er for an Opposition, is it any wonder the LNP have to do it (Opposition) themselves.

  51. brc

    The lnp in Queensland at the state level still have some seriously ordinary national party leftovers. I personally think some of these guys should consider joining katter and his merry band of rural socialists. Sure, there gun policies might be more appealing to a man on the land, but their trade ideas are seriously bad news.

  52. John Mc

    Katter is mad as a cut snake but it’s good having him in the mix. He detests the LNP though and would work with Labor toward protectionism in the first instance. On the upside, his main effect will be to erode Labor’s base in QLD as he promises handouts, subsidies and economic regulation without the latte-leftism.

  53. Viva

    Ace quote from Abbott that this government is like a bad tenant who is trashing the place before they are evicted.

  54. Leigh Lowe

    Labor would surprisingly lose election now

    I’m surprised that they’re surprised.
    Although the last poll was a 50:50 dodgy so this is a shift from that.
    And sub-editors love words like “shock”, “surprise” and “jolt”.
    Words like “routine”, “expected” and “predictable” are not in their lexicon.

  55. Leigh Lowe

    Katter is an old-style agrarian socialist.
    If you scratch the surface you will not be able to distinguish hime from any regular green-scheme rorter or automotive union hack.

  56. C.L.

    Katter has been on the public tit since 1974.

    I kid you not.

  57. Lew

    With the Green vote continuing to shrink how long will it be before Rhiannon decides to have a go at knocking Milne off her perch.

  58. Jannie

    The problem with these figures is that it could lead to LNP complacency. Even worse, it may scare Labor from a March/April election, and they will hang on for grim death until October/November next year.

  59. .

    With the Green vote continuing to shrink how long will it be before Rhiannon decides to have a go at knocking Milne off her perch

    This would be a gift. A communist traitor in charge.

  60. pete m

    This would be a gift. A communist traitor in charge.

    It would make them the same as Labor then …

  61. Lysander Spooner

    The worst possible outcome for Abbott is if Julia IS dumped. I know they don’t have many “shiny new toys” to bring into the leadership but even a random person could do better than Julia. Due credit to Abbott and team but you’d have to worry (a little)….don’t unwrap your presents till September!!! :-)

  62. .

    If Swan is PM…the ALP primary vote will go below 20%.

    He’s an unhinged, drooling, bucket mouthed, ratchet jawed, mouth breathing imbecile.

  63. BM

    “The Australian people will not elect anyone Prime Minister on the basis of a smear campaign against the existing Prime Minister of Australia.

    No, but the Labor Caucus will!

    Just ask Kevin.

  64. Lysander Spooner

    And here comes the rubbish truck:

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/tony-abbott-defends-his-position-on-abortion-after-criticism-from-blogger/story-fndo48ca-1226534394400

    Next they’ll quote Abbott saying “100,000 abortions a year in Australia is a tradgedy.”

  65. .

    Abbot looks pretty good in that, really.

  66. Infidel Tiger

    Pretty creepy that an abortion fanatic runs a blog dedicated to “mummies”.

  67. Jannie

    Wowser, I would love Wayne Swan to knife Jools in the back and become PM, with Bill Shorten pledging undying support. A postmodernist morality tale. I would prefer Craig Thomson, but you gotta be realistic about his numbers.

  68. Gab

    This latest McTernan tactic – Mammamia, gillard and the inevitable abortion schtick – is straight out of the Obama campaign 2012 tactical playbook.

  69. brc

    He’s an unhinged, drooling, bucket mouthed, ratchet jawed, mouth breathing imbecile.

    And as such, more than qualified to be handed the Labor leadership.

  70. Mike of Marion

    Google News headline that MPs are worried. Good. They deserve her

  71. twostix

    This latest McTernan tactic – Mammamia, gillard and the inevitable abortion schtick – is straight out of the Obama campaign 2012 tactical playbook.

    Exactly.

    It won’t help though, just like the last twenty clever attempts didn’t help.

    If they do want to talk about abortion though lets talk about Gillard founding a group whose central purpose was to stack the ALP with women who support abortions for any reason up until birth.

  72. Lysander Spooner

    Here’s my favourite Xmas pressie:
    -Abbott as first Catholic PM since Chifley;
    -Malcolm as Treasurer (just to tease the lefties into thinking there’d be a leadership spill at some point);
    -Barnaby Joyce (in the House o’ Reps) as Speaker!
    -Poor old Rafe as Governor General.
    :-)

  73. Lysander Spooner

    Its an Egyptian thing Infidel….

  74. Lew

    Maybe Barnaby would be too fair,too even handed for the job.I’d like to see Bronwyn Bishop in the chair,she knows the rule book backwards and has a healthy hatred of Socialist scum.

  75. Jannie

    Lysander I have always thought putting Turnbull in as shadow Treasurer made good sense, it would force him to be more responsible, and put his idle hands to work, so to speak. Joe Hockey would look better in Defence, God knows they’re going to need a good bloke after being beggared by Labor, he may be convinced to do it for the team. I sure have not heard much of David Johnston, and he lives just around the corner from me.

  76. Token

    LABOR backbenchers have slumped back into a despondent funk after the final Newspoll of 2012 showed the party ending the year where it began – facing an election wipeout.

    Poor poppets…and they wonder how the rest of us feel knowing the alliance has another 10 or so months left to totally trash the joint.

  77. Lysander Spooner

    I agree Jannie. He’s a businessman (successful), he’s suave, smart and competetive in that I’m sure he’d like to steal Costello’s award. :-)

    Poor old Joe….he’s nice and he probably deserves it but Turnbull’s nice and he’s not leader….Mick Jagger: “you get what you need.”

  78. .

    Barnaby should be foreign minister but for to spite the handbag hitsquad et al.

  79. Driftforge

    Barnaby should be foreign minister

    Maybe Nigel Scullion?

  80. JC

    He’s an unhinged, drooling, bucket mouthed, ratchet jawed, mouth breathing imbecile.

    Everyone laughs at him because he’s such a moron.

  81. Tracey

    “Katter has been on the public tit since 1974.”
    And his father before him.

    That Newspoll did my crusty old heart good this morning.

    My fantasy is John Howard as GG, Bronwyn Bishop as Speaker and for Amanda Vanstone to be lured back.

    And I hadn’t thought of Joe Hockey as Defence Minister, but I think whoever suggested it is spot on. He would be great in that portfolio.

  82. Leigh Lowe

    He’s an unhinged, drooling, bucket mouthed, ratchet jawed, mouth breathing imbecile.

    You forgot “knuckle dragging and banjo playing yokel”

  83. Splatacrobat

    It looks like some flubber has leaked out of Gillard’s dead cat bounce’s arse.

    No ammount of flubber McSporran tries to shove up this dead cat’s arse will make it bounce again.

  84. Rafe

    Nice of Lysander to nominate me for the GG gig, as it happens Lower Neutral Bay is adjacent to Kiribilli so I could walk to work from home. The big house would be open for Cats and members of the Austalian school of economics anytime they pass through the harbour city. Just give 24 hrs notice and access via ferry from Circular Quay to the first stop on the Neutral Bay run. Or stroll from Milsons Point station on the northern line.

  85. .

    That’s an insult to the Freshwater faction. Take the E50 or drive to the viceregal palace…

  86. Brian4Jesus

    Thank you Anne it’s nice to be forgiven, I was sure you would come around. Now, if I can get Dottie too loosen up a little, I will be fully restored.The polls, I think they are absolutely fantastic. You have to hand it to Tony and Peta, the drive down the Pacific HWY was totally inspiring and ticked all the boxes. It was a total success despite being drowned out to some extent by the MSM obsession with the prank phone call.

  87. .

    Blowjobs for Jebus…

    You are literally the worst troll to have ever existed.

    You are like New Coke promoted by Comical Ali, and laced with strychnine.

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