A surplus by 2012-13

Posted on December 20, 2012 by Sinclair Davidson

Then there is this:

Update 1: David Brewer reports in comments that the Budget website has been updated. It now reads:

Good thing I took a screen shot yesterday.

Update 2: Older Budget pages still up.

2010

2011

(HT: Michael Smith via CL and Noodle)

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98 Responses to A surplus by 2012-13

Infidel tiger

#678459, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:23 pm

Poor old Wayne. He’ll be spinning his Springsteen records tonight looking for solace.
H B Bear

#678461, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:23 pm

Love the Opposition response to the Goose – just break out in laughter.

Spot on – he and this hopeless government are one long bad joke.
brc

#678470, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:33 pm

Used this as a talking point with someone today. Someone who never talks politics, and I had no idea of their leaning. They agreed the government was terrible, but ‘I don’t like Tony Abbot’ was the answer.

When quizzed why, the answer was, ‘uuuummmmmm…’

When pushed, the answer was ‘I don’t like the way he speaks, he’s not a good speaker’.

I asked if a committed volunteer guy with firm principles was better than the current government, the answer was ‘oh yes, I can’t stand Julia Gillard, and Wayne Swan seems like an awful man’.

That right there people, is a 1-person poll which explains the 2PP and Preferred PM and Satisfaction polls.

People aren’t hot on Tony Abbot, but respect him for being a straight talker. You could say the dislike for Abbot is shallow but wide, but the hatred for Gillard is a veritable mariana trench.

Ps, this was a woman, too. Chalk up another failure to be swayed by the misogynist rantings.
C.L.

#678473, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:34 pm

JC’s missing some good stuff.

On behalf of him, I have to point out that our own Roger Dangerfield gets no respect.

NO RESPECT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FPv2toi5og
John Mc

#678474, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:34 pm

They really have forgotten that important rule: under-promise and over-deliver. Even more important in Australian politics because we vote people out, we don’t look to vote people in.
tbh

#678479, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:38 pm

I’m actually starting to feel a bit sorry for Swan. I think he may be mildly retarded, but on second thoughts that’s insulting to actual retarded people.

He’s just a piss weak public servant who’s been promoted way above his ability.
Cold-Hands

#678483, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:39 pm

Wyatt Roy’s birthday question seems even more cutting after today’s news.

h/t Michael Smith News
Gab

#678489, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:47 pm

2008. Wayne Swan:

We are budgeting for a surplus of $21.7 billion in 2008/9

2010. Wayne Swan:

Our strategy will see us return to surplus in three years

2011. Wayne Swan:

We will be back in black by 2012/13, on time, as promised

No Lucy, unlike Charlie Brown, I don’t believe you anymore.
Stanny

#678499, posted on December 20, 2012 at 11:58 pm

Brc
Unfortunately I hear those sentiments literally all the time about Abbott and mainly from the politically is engaged/ naive.
I point out his major fund raising activity for the Manly women’s refuge, working vacations in remote indigenous communities etc but the meme from te women’s publications and commentariat is toxic. His critics from the conservative community from females is quite large indeed. No they don’t like Ms Gillard but females don’t like Abbott and they ant even tell you why when you drill down. The meme has stuck and the focus groups prove Gillard/McTernan are on a winner.
Men seem to have a more practical and rational approach.
Abbott is not a good speaker any more and suffers from having too many mannerisms women don’t like basically that’s it and almost nothing to do with policy.
The good news is he can’t go lower in approval polling.
Splatacrobat

#678501, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:02 am

Magnificent watching Swan in the presser crumble what was left of his unpolished turd of a surplus promise like he did when he shattered the glass.
Fire and Ice

#678537, posted on December 21, 2012 at 2:20 am

Is there a single policy or promise that this government has actually met? Of course, this is the centrepiece of their failures, their self-stated test of fiscal credibility. But then again, the electorate have a memory about as long as….. yesterday.
John Comnenus

#678580, posted on December 21, 2012 at 5:52 am

Wayne Swans theme song:

Baby we were born to run ………… Deficits.

I note once again that the huge drop in tax revenues is not an actual decline in revenue but a shortfall in the heroic assumptions about the projected growth in revenues.

I was having a beer with a Treasury boffin last weekend and told him his Department should be privatized because it has been so wildly off in it’s forecasts, especially on revenue. After the weakest defense of the department he told me that they have been too keen to support the government by making heroic assumptions to shore up the governments budgets when they have been announced and suffered credibility loss once the results have come in. There is no need for a public service if it can’t give frank and independent advice without fear or favor. Hopefully a Coalition terminates Parkinson and doesn’t give him a redundancy. It should let Parkinson know he will be sacked for incompetence.
Token

#678591, posted on December 21, 2012 at 6:31 am

Wow, interesting to see the degree to which the Stenographers have left it to the bloggers to hold our politicians to account.

Good article today Snic in The Oz.
Leigh Lowe

#678592, posted on December 21, 2012 at 6:32 am

Poor old Wayne. He’ll be spinning his Springsteen records tonight looking for solace.

“I’m Goin’ Down” ???
John Comnenus

#678597, posted on December 21, 2012 at 6:38 am

Wayne is a fan of Bruce’s recent big hit ‘Wrecking ball’.

That’s what Wayne is doing to the economy – putting a wrecking ball through the productive parts to reduce the whole economy to the ruins the ALP likes.
Gk

#678607, posted on December 21, 2012 at 6:59 am

So interesting that no one asks Swan that you keep repeating how strong our economy is under labour and how it is growing BUT now say that lower revenue (obviously from a more depressed economy) will result in no budget surplus. So which one is it a strong economy or not?
Biota

#678609, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:05 am

I see this as an election year strategy. It puts Labor back on their familiar ground of unrestrained spending allowing buying off voting blocks and marginal electorates.
johno

#678616, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:19 am

The ABC’s online report of Labor’s latest backdown is nauseating.

The headline is economists agree that scraping the surplus is ‘better late than never’ with lots of coverage of the business lobbyists support for dropping the surplus promise.

The Opposition is characterised as ‘crowing’.

That Gillard and Swan have broken another promise or that they are incompetent economic managers or that they failed the politics of managing expectations doesn’t get a mention. Another truly disgraceful effort from Labor’s media. It’s Time it was privatised.
johno

#678619, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:21 am

Spot on Biota. They are going to trash the joint on the way out. The Coalition is going to have a truely hard time repairing the damage. And just watch Labor’s media – ABC, SBS and Fairfax – blame the Coalition for all the pain that the Coalition will have to inflict on us to fix Labor’s mess.
John Comnenus

#678622, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:25 am

Maybe Gillard and Swan were promising a surplus for this year because they thought the LNP would be in power by now.
Boy on a bike

#678625, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:32 am

I’m amazed he didn’t announce the death of the surplus on Xmas day, shortly after lunch when everyone is sleeping off their third heling of pudding.
manalive

#678627, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:36 am

I see this as an election year strategy ….

Me too.
Chris M

#678630, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:40 am

“What we reject is this hysterical allegation that somehow there will be no budget surplus….”
John Comnenus

#678631, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:41 am

I thought this year was the all time record for Government receipts. Problem is that it’s the even bigger all time record for Government spending.

And they called the Howard years the wasted years of structural deficits. The ALP years have been the years of waste and actual deficits.
John A

#678638, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:49 am

“Labor pain”

Some words just fit together perfectly.
Louis Hissink

#678640, posted on December 21, 2012 at 7:52 am

We have to get through today remember – Alex has still to give Cyrus his receipts for his entertaining expenses at Megabank…….:-)

So maybe Swannie could pull it off………as I fall off my chair laughing…..
John Comnenus

#678653, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:08 am

The ALP should be red faced about the phenomenal growth of red ink and red tape on it’s watch.
Poida

#678659, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:14 am

If they’re mentioning this already, I shudder to think what news they’re holding onto to release Christmas day.

I also agree with Biota… They may be an incompetent bunch economically, but politically they’re doing the impossible by even staying in power this long.

I feel the Liberals could still loose (the next election) if they were to turn their backs on this injured, but still moving, cornered dog. It isn’t impossible, with the short memory of the electorate, that the ALP buy another term.

It still staggers me that a group this incompetent could be elected to run a local council let alone the country. I just wish there was a small government alternative party.
Samuel J

#678661, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:16 am

Is there any promise Labor has kept?

LABOR ≡ DEFICIT
Paul

#678664, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:21 am

I don’t think anyone seriously believed they ever had any ability to, or intention of, living up to this did they?
Keith

#678665, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:23 am

The ALP should be red faced about the phenomenal growth of red ink and red tape on it’s watch.

Were they red faced in Tas, Vic, NSW, Qld ?
On the contrary, massive deficits is a hallmark, the club badge even, and worn with pride by the arrogant imbeciles. All those ex-Premiers remain proud of their records.
cuckoo

#678672, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:38 am

What’s staggering is the near-silence that is greeting this news on the taxpayer-funded media. If anything, the years of credit the ABC gave to the ALP for the promise of a surplus, has morphed instantly into credit for wise, sound economic judgement in scrapping that promise. I’m trying to imagine the kind of triumphalist hooting that would have greeted such a defeat if it had come to the Coalition. (Well, I don’t have to try, because I heard it after the Ashby case was thrown out.)
David Brewer

#678685, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:52 am

The text at the Budget papers link has been flushed down the memory hole overnight and now reads as follows:

“Our strong fiscal position sends a strong message to international investors on the Government’s commitment to fiscal discipline and provides a buffer in uncertain economic times.

The budget spreads the benefits of the mining boom to help low and middle-income families, through increased payments to families and an allowance for eligible income recipients.

It also supports businesses to meet the challenges of the mining boom through a loss carry-back reform, which builds on the instant asset write off due to start on 1 July 2012.

This budget also launches the first stage of the historic National Disability Insurance Scheme, strengthens the aged care system and improves dental services.”

Note that even though the new text has only been there a few hours, it still refers to 1 July 2012 as being in the future. Faulty flushing, Winston Smith, off to Room 101!
dover_beach

#678691, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:00 am

NO RESPECT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FPv2toi5og

Thank you, CL, that was very enjoyable.
Pickles

#678697, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:06 am

Rex
Samuel J

#678698, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:07 am

Penn and Teller show us how the Labor Government’s policies work:

See here.
Pickles

#678700, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:08 am

Rex meets Julian
Token

#678701, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:10 am

Tim Blair documents how Swan and Gillard got headlines for a surplus they never delivered over 3 years:

Wayne Swan, May 2010:

We now expect a surplus in three years, three years ahead of schedule.

Julia Gillard, August 2010:

The Budget will be back in surplus in 2013 if I’m re-elected.

Wayne Swan, August 2010 :

Well, we’re getting back into surplus in three years. Come hell or high water.

Julia Gillard, August 2010:

The Budget is coming back to surplus, no ifs no buts it will happen.

Julia Gillard, November 2010:

The budget will be back in the black, back in surplus in 2012-13 … as promised.

Wayne Swan, April 2011 :

We see the surplus in 12-13 as being absolutely fundamental.

Julia Gillard, April 2011:

My commitment to a surplus in 2012-13 was a promise made and it will be honoured.

Wayne Swan, May 2011:

We’ll be back in the black by 2012/13, as promised.

Julia Gillard, May 2011:

We’ll bring the budget to surplus in 2012-13, exactly as promised.

Wayne Swan, August 2011:

I believe we will attain those forecasts, coming back to surplus in 2012/13.

Wayne Swan, August 2011:

The government remains absolutely committed to delivering our return to surplus as we planned.

Wayne Swan, February 2012:

I am determined to produce a surplus in 2012-2013. We have got our colours nailed to the mast.

Wayne Swan, March 2012:

Despite the tough global conditions, we remain determined to return the budget to surplus in 2012/13, and we will get there.

Julia Gillard, November 2012:

We stand by the predictions, the entries in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. We stand by the figures and we’re on track to deliver a budget surplus.

Wayne Swan, December 2012:

It’s appropriate that we return to surplus.

Wayne Swan, December 2012:

It’s unlikely that there will be a surplus in 2012/13.

Good luck going to an election with these broken promises.
Gab

#678703, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:12 am

Incredible. Some Labor numpty talking head on their ABC told me this morning that the imaginary surplus was all Abbott’s fault because he made them promise a surplus.

Victimhood they name is Labor.
Giffy

#678705, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:14 am

Swan: ‘nailed colours to the mast’
Gillard: ‘no ifs, no buts’
Now the wreckers claim to be acting responsibly.
Truly shameless
Token

#678709, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:15 am

Pathological liars:

By one estimate, Swan has pledged more than 200 times since 2010 that this year’s budget would be in surplus. The Prime Minister guaranteed such a result two years ago.

“The budget is coming back to surplus,” she vowed. “No ifs, no buts. It will happen.” Last year, Swan declared: “We see the surplus in 12-13 as being absolutely fundamental.” The Prime Minister added: “My commitment to a surplus in 2012-13 was a promise made and it will be honoured.”

One day before the previous election, Swan told morning television: “We’re getting back into surplus in three years. Come hell or high water.”

In the end, neither hell nor high water were required. As the Treasurer admitted yesterday, all it took to shatter his ambitions for a surplus was a $4 billion drop in company tax payments. “It’s a really big hit to revenue. It’s a huge whack,” he said. “Given what we’ve seen it’s unlikely that there will be a surplus in 2012/13.”
cohenite

#678711, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:17 am

By 2013 no child will be living without a surplus.
Gab

#678712, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:23 am

As the Treasurer admitted yesterday, all it took to shatter his ambitions for a surplus was a $4 billion drop in company tax payments

Didn’t someone here point out that revenues were not down, rather the treasury forecast was unrealistically overambitious?
Pickles

#678716, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:26 am

Promises never meant to be kept
Prophecies never meant to come to pass
Explanations meant to confuse, confound and mystify
candy

#678717, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:28 am

M.Swan/gillard will give out more cash handouts and other types of benefits next year, and be fairly confident that a lot of people won’t care about a deficit.
Gab

#678719, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:29 am

Hey remember their first budget deficit, the one where they were taken by surorise over the rise in the AUD? Like they weren’t aware of the floating exchange rate?
Splatacrobat

#678721, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:31 am

I bet Chris Bowen is happy that someone else has had to eat a shit sandwich for a change and front up to explain another failed promise. Penny musta been out the back like a tuck shop mum lathering up the bread.
Gab

#678723, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:33 am

Wayne Swan now saying they have always got the “big economic calls right”. The delusion is strong in that one.
Mick Gold Coast QLD

#678728, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:38 am

“What’s staggering is the near-silence that is greeting this news on the taxpayer-funded media ..”

That’s because they are busy reporting Xmas or Happy Holiday or whatever the Press Council (pieces be upon it) has reduced it to.

It is joint Press Council/ABC Cheer Squad policy that Christmas is offensive, they have advised the medieval death cult and others that this is so and that they must be offended.

It is important they cover this because it is in The National Interest unlike routine announcements by government about progress on their excellent financial stewardship.
.

#678729, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:39 am

Swan, when debating Costello, didn’t even know the difference between Commonwealth debt and the current account deficit.

He is too stupid to be a Federal Cabinet Minister.
H B Bear

#678731, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:39 am

The Goose should have had Parkinson alongside him yesterday explaining how Treasury forecasts continue to be hopelessly inadequate – continually underestimating revenue while Costello was Treasurer and yet somehow continuously overestimating revenue to support a Labor narrative while The Goose is at the levers.
Mick Gold Coast QLD

#678734, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:41 am

“As the Treasurer admitted yesterday, all it took to shatter his ambitions for a surplus was a $4 billion drop in company tax payments”

In any event Evil Companies are to blame for failing to pay their fair share.

So there.
Andrew

#678736, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:41 am

Wayne Swans theme song:

Baby we were born to run ………… Deficits.

Wayne Swan’s favourite Springsteen album is also “Wrecking Ball”.
Andrew

#678738, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:43 am

“As the Treasurer admitted yesterday, all it took to shatter his ambitions for a surplus was a $4 billion drop in company tax payments”

It was a $4billion drop based on his crazy estimates.
H B Bear

#678751, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:51 am

The revision to the Budget website is just the beginning. Labor, like most of the Left, loves rewriting history. In five years time I think you will struggle to find any reference to the Rudd-Gillard governments at all. They will be buried deeper than a Slater & Gordon AWU file.
kelly liddle

#678764, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:01 am

There should be a constitutional ammendment that says a government can not destroy any previous information and must allow access in an archive system. The government is keeping up with the digital age (a delete button is even easier than a shredder) but it should mean that because the costs are so low this information should be kept.
Pete of Perth

#678773, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:05 am

I blame bananas.
kelly liddle

#678777, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:08 am

He is too stupid to be a Federal Cabinet Minister.

Dot, again off with the fairies in his Utopia where only smart people who care for the nation become Ministers. I guarantee Swan isn’t the dumbest.
.

#678783, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:15 am

Dot, again off with the fairies in his Utopia where only smart people who care for the nation become Ministers. I guarantee Swan isn’t the dumbest.

Can you name a stupid US Treasury Secretary that didn’t serve under FDR?
kelly liddle

#678791, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:22 am

Dot
I can’t name any US Treasury Secretary but I could point out that gov debt in that country has risen for the past 60 years continuously. Swan would be right at home over there as far as fiscal conservatism goes. Both sides of Australian politics have reduced debt at times in the last 30 years but Swan definately will not achieve this.
.

#678800, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:27 am

So, you’re wrong.
kelly liddle

#678802, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:29 am

Wrong about what?
.

#678807, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:33 am

That we should accept dumb c**ts like Swan as Treasurer.

Way to go Kelly, set the bar for grubs.
kelly liddle

#678815, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:40 am

Dot
I very much don’t like the guy, but just pointed out there are worse and the reality we live in. You know one of my things is gov debt is more destructive than anything else (mostly because it seems uncontrollable and exponential until collapse once it is accepted) so you could hardly say I support him.
.

#678818, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:45 am

The ALP have hurt our nation by making him Treasurer.

They could have put in several more experienced Ministers who have more of an idea.

Crean, Smith or Macklin would have been better.

Swan is so bad because he is a die hard tribalist like Albanese.
south

#678820, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:46 am

Labor’s been running a massive surplus ever since 2007… of waste, sleaze, and bulls**t.
brc

#678829, posted on December 21, 2012 at 11:00 am

As the Treasurer admitted yesterday, all it took to shatter his ambitions for a surplus was a $4 billion drop in company tax payments

People should not forget that the carbon tax was scheduled to lose 4 billion this year because of overpayments to try and compensate.

If they dumped the carbon tax they might have made the shortfall. Instead they chose to break two core promises.
Mick Gold Coast QLD

#678866, posted on December 21, 2012 at 11:44 am

Crean, Smith or Macklin Dot?

Crean’s gutless. Never took up a weapon or spoke a word as the barbarians destroyed the Party around him. So much for wise old heads.

Smith? An angry little, little man who had Comrade Dear Leader (in exile) push him around in foreign affairs as a junior office clerk fetching the photocopying for him. He now takes out his revenge on Defence chiefs yet he’d be as frightened of Comrade Bogan Broadasks as any of the other girly men around him.

What happened to men like of Senator Peter Walsh, John Dawkins and Lionel Bowen who could stand before their Cabinet colleagues, including powerful fellas such as Hawke or Keating, and say “No. You are not going to do that/promise that/implement that because it is stupid.”?

You think Macklin, this dumb looking dumpy shrew (http://www.aec.gov.au/media/image-library/files/niyp/jenny-macklin-mp2.jpg) would be of any worth? She is merely another fat bummed Labor incompetent wimminses on the ran tan using my dollar.
sdog

#678875, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:03 pm

Update: David Brewer reports in comments that the Budget website has been updated. It now reads: [...]

Good thing I took a screen shot yesterday.

Well done.

Memo to Stalinesque wannabe airbrushers-of-history: We have the Internet now. You don’t control it. And we can fact-check your ass. BOOM.
CaptainPugwash

#678876, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm

Swan only just outrates Emmerson as the prize dunce in the Labor party. Emmerson had it in the bag (until Swans fumble yesterday) with the “No Whyalla Wipeout” Carbonara tax song destroying message.

Sadly I’ve done my dough at Sportsbet.
Infidel Tiger

#678878, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm

What would the surplus have been if spending was capped at spendthrift Howard’s 2007 levels?
Septimus

#678883, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:21 pm

Alan Oster said on the ABC Midday News that he doesn’t see much difference between a $10Bn Surplus and a $10Bn Deficit.

Hmmm . . . that would be $20Bn, wouldn’t it, Alan?

Half of the uncosted NBN, yes?
Jannie

#678890, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:29 pm

Andrew thats a good line.

Born to run deficits.

Born to run the the country, into the ground.

Born to run the party line.

Born to take the money and run
Skuter

#678906, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:51 pm

Memo to Wayne Swan:
When Adam Smith said: “there’s much ruin in a nation”, I’m pretty sure he didn’t intend it as a proposition to be tested, as in HOW MUCH…
Splatacrobat

#678910, posted on December 21, 2012 at 12:55 pm

Swan couldn’t drive a greasy stick up a dog’s arse let alone balance a budget.
Gab

#678914, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:01 pm

When Adam Smith said: “there’s much ruin in a nation”, I’m pretty sure he didn’t intend it as a proposition to be tested, as in HOW MUCH…

Gold. Pity you didn’t advise him sooner.
candy

#678918, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:05 pm

W. Swan did organise us through the GFC, and there’s a perception he and KRudd did a good job at that stage, or perhaps they were just lucky, before they went on a spending spree.

But he seemes to have messed up now. I wonder if they’ll give more cash handouts in the election year.
.

#678921, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm

Crean, Smith or Macklin Dot?

The caveat was, Mick, “better than Shane Wand”

Forgiveness, please.
Skuter

#678925, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm

Splat, he couldn’t even drive said stick up a recently deceased dog’s ar$e
Skuter

#678926, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm

…even with an instruction manual and pictures.
Skuter

#678928, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:16 pm

His excuse would be that the manual didn’t say: “remove tongue first”
Token

#678933, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:22 pm

W. Swan did organise us through the GFC, and there’s a perception he and KRudd did a good job at that stage, or perhaps they were just lucky, before they went on a spending spree.

Considering every government in the world went crazy spending during the GFC yet only Australia, Canada and a few other countries got through in good economic shape, do you think:

1. it was the spending that got the economy through [implementing scenarios planned for when Costello was Treasurer] , or

2. other factors [the fact the Fed Gov had no debt due to Howard/Costello and China's stimulous]

Take your time.
candy

#678942, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:40 pm

Bit of both, do you think Token?

Perhaps too they seemed to have confidence in what they were doing was right, and that’s a good thing to give an aura of confidence to business and consumers and so on. But I think the perception is they got it right.

But’s it’s all gone to custard now. ALP can’t help themselves but spend and lead us into debt and then the conservatives fix it all up again!
Skuter

#678944, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:43 pm

The oz is reporting that dragonflies have superior capabilities to Wayne Swan…
brc

#678945, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:44 pm

Considering every government in the world went crazy spending during the GFC yet only Australia, Canada and a few other countries got through in good economic shape, do you think:

1. it was the spending that got the economy through [implementing scenarios planned for when Costello was Treasurer] , or

2. other factors [the fact the Fed Gov had no debt due to Howard/Costello and China's stimulous]

Take your time.

There is zero evidence that the spendathon got us ‘through’ the GFC.

What they did was blow a pile of cash manipulating GDP figures to avoid a technical recession.

Now the cash is gone, the demand was all brought forwards and we’re now stuck in the inevitable slump. It’s like drinking your entire stash of beer on the first day of a two week camping trip and spending the rest of the time miserable because all you’ve got is a pile of empty bottles.

Australia had enough momentum already to carry through the initial crisis. There were governmental things that should and were done, mainly around ensuring liquidity to banks, but that’s the extent of it.

Anyone defending the spend-a-thon has to explain why it didn’t work in the US, Britain and just about everywhere else.
Skuter

#678948, posted on December 21, 2012 at 1:46 pm

Candy, a surplus of custard is one surplus that Wayne has actually delivered…
Token

#678964, posted on December 21, 2012 at 2:01 pm

Bit of both, do you think Token?

A bit, when we hit the GFC I thought (like the people in Treasury) that stimulating the economy would help us avoid hitting a nasty bottom.

I’ve come to the conclusion part A does not help much as the rest of the world did not avoid recession by following A without B (Canada is a raw material exporter which had little debt too).

Therefore, I have come to the conclusion BRC articulates at 1:44pm

On the open forum there is a post which links to an article which compares the approaches of Ireland (part of the EU which did a lot of A) and Iceland (which allowed the economy to bottom out).

It is interesting to see the results 4 year on.
The Realist of Queensland

#679035, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:15 pm

In 2010 Gillard once in an interview with 6PR Perth and again at the public forum held at the Bronco’s Leagues Club spoke the truth when asked about returning the budget to surplus by 2013. She stated categorically that “failure is not an option.” What she didn’t do was complete the sentence.
“For Labor, failure is not an option. It is standard operating procedure.”
Skuter

#679038, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:20 pm

“For Labor, failure is not an option. It is a way of life.”
mct

#679041, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:21 pm

At least one good thing comes out of all this… I think it is now certain they will go to an election before the next budget / before they have to admit that the deficit will be something like $25b (more if they continue the spendathon as I now expect).
Skuter

#679044, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:30 pm

Just for humour’s sake:

The Government’s fiscal strategy

The Government’s fiscal strategy is designed to ensure fiscal sustainability while providing the necessary flexibility for the budget to vary in line with economic conditions to support macroeconomic stability.

The medium‑term fiscal strategy has remained unchanged since 2008‑09, the Government’s first budget.

The Government’s medium‑term fiscal strategy is to:

*achieve budget surpluses, on average, over the medium term;
*keep taxation as a share of GDP below the level for 2007‑08 (23.7 per cent of GDP), on average; and
*improve the Government’s net financial worth over the medium term.

Following its response to the global financial crisis, the Government committed to ensuring a timely return to surplus as the economy recovered to grow above trend by:

allowing the level of tax receipts to recover naturally as the economy improves, while maintaining the Government’s commitment to keep taxation as a share of GDP below the 2007‑08 level on average; and
holding real growth in spending to 2 per cent a year until the budget returns to surplus.
With the budget returning to surplus, the Government remains committed to allowing tax receipts to recover naturally as the economy improves, and to maintaining a 2 per cent annual cap on real spending growth, on average, until surpluses are at least 1 per cent of GDP and while the economy is growing at or above trend.

http://www.budget.gov.au/2012-13/content/bp1/html/bp1_bst3-01.htm

That medium-term is getting awfully long…has macquarie dictionary been contacted?
Skuter

#679049, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:36 pm

BUDGET SPEECH
2012‑13

DELIVERED ON 8 MAY 2012 ON THE SECOND READING
OF THE APPROPRIATION BILL (NO. 1) 2012-13
BY

THE HONOURABLE [sic] WAYNE SWAN MP
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND TREASURER
OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA

…

The four years of surpluses I announce tonight are a powerful endorsement of the strength of our economy, resilience of our people, and success of our policies.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!

Obviously, according to Wayne, the people just weren’t resilient enough…
Splatacrobat

#679059, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:44 pm

Don’t worry Wayne, Steiner’s assault will save the Surplus!
Jannie

#679064, posted on December 21, 2012 at 4:53 pm

I read a comment at The Oz that the promise was not literal, but aspirational. You know, like a target just to motivate the troops, not the generals.

But without such aspirations, theres nothing to restrain them now. They are abandoning their version of prudence and their mates love it.
GSM

#679165, posted on December 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm

I know a number of Lefties (who’s a Leftie??) who will be overjoyed at the news. They will be positively chuffed that Swannie has sold our country out and delivered, yet again, on his famous stream of Deficits. Yes, the Best Treasurer in The World’s record is intact- not one Surplus.

His Socialist mates in the OECD- who are constantly promoted as that great benchmark for us to emulate- will be proud.

TP,L, R2M, RP – your idol has done you proud.
Winston Smith

#679211, posted on December 21, 2012 at 9:39 pm

JC, I see a mob of politicians and Bankers playing around with the rules like a kid with a box of matches, and I get as nervous as shit.
So I continue to liquidate assets/buy more gold or silver. It’s not much of a plan, but it’s better than anything else I’ve got.
Marky

#679278, posted on December 21, 2012 at 10:55 pm

I don’t think there’s anything for me to say that hasn’t already been said, except to thank those above whose brilliant, spot-on Springsteen references gave me a good laugh.
JC

#679282, posted on December 21, 2012 at 11:00 pm

Winston

There’s reason to be nervous, but not now.. at least not next year anyways.

Stocks are going to go through the roof if they manage to deal with this cliff thing, otherwise it will be postponed.

Look at what happened to stocks when the Fed opened the spigot around 98ish as Tepper mentioned in the vid. They bolted upwards.

This time the Fed has said they will add until the unemployment rate is 6.5%. This is like sitting at the bar and a 10 walks up to you and starts making out, out of the blue.