Sometime this year we’ll go to the polls. Unlike the US situation and some States the federal parliament does not have fixed terms. Parliament sits for three years but there is some leeway around that for the timing of actual elections. According to this piece by Antony Green we must must have an election by 30 November (and given the timing of elections we can’t have one in January as writs would have had to be issued already). So when?
The betting market provides the best guess – here I’m looking at Sportsbet. I’ve calculated the probabilities of an election being held in any month.
So September is most likely, followed by August, then October.
Who is going to win? Right now the betting market is predicting a Coalition victory.
I think the third option is October rather than November. I don’t think I can wait that long.
[Yes - fixed thanks. Sinc]
Megan
4 Jan 13 at 4:27 pm
I saw my prayers every night for the election to cowe soon and the Sportsbet people are correct. I am not getting too old to sit around eleven months waiting for the rot to stop.
Mother G
4 Jan 13 at 4:38 pm
Please remember this: “Whoever you vote for, the government will get in.”
Hristos
4 Jan 13 at 4:46 pm
So we get another work of fiction by The Goose and Treasury?
“The four years of surpluses I announce again tonight …”
Bwahahahahaaaaa
H B Bear
4 Jan 13 at 4:47 pm
Every day that this poisonous harriden flouts taste, morailty and ethics by remaining in power is another ruinous disaster for Australia and Australians. There is not a sIngle Australian, nor a single Australian yet born, whose life has not been crippled by this booster of scandalous misogynism, friend of fraudsters, despoiler of marriages and avid supporter of the right to rip the unborn from their mothers wombs as an act of fashion compliance. Each day brings a new depth of iniquity. And this unspeakable creature seeks to ban negative comments.
WhaleHunt Fun
4 Jan 13 at 4:57 pm
I thought there was some sort of constitutional restriction on having an election in July or thereabouts. I forget now.
dm
4 Jan 13 at 5:03 pm
If they don’t get a poll improvement for the loaves and fishes budget that will not mention fiscal responsibility, then they’ll go early to saddle Abbott with an unfriendly senate and a senate half term election early in his term.
I wonder if the greens will get a say, or is the weekly tete a tete with the PM a relic of a bygone era?
brc
4 Jan 13 at 5:07 pm
She wants to make a difference in peoples lives, Whalehunt
JC
4 Jan 13 at 5:10 pm
I bet the election will be just after labor promise all kinds of bull crap in the next budget and just before we find out that they were $20b off budget for this year.
Expect swan to announced the economy is worsening and throw money at the voters on 1st July – deficit be damned. Another $1000 k.rudd style payout MIT win them another election.
Mundi
4 Jan 13 at 5:13 pm
The ALP has many competing and conflicting interests: firstly, because Gillard, as conceded even by her own ministers in recent comments, has poor political instincts, she will resist any attempt to go before October because she’s already she’s prepared to wait endlessly for salvation in the polls, which she has never had as PM; outliers have put her within sight of the lead, but the consensus has always been that she will be narrowly or disastrously thrashed.
The Coalition will have endless ammunition in the runup to the May budget as the deficit blows out and the proposition that you can’t trust these people with money becomes an undeniable reality.
The second curiosity is that it is in the ALP’s best interest to call a double dissolution election to destroy the Greens, who are on the slide after peaking in 2010. In a DD election, the Greens would struggle to win a single quota in all states except the communist kingdoms of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania and, regardless, will probably lose Adam Bandt in the lower house (A number of polls have the Greens slipping to 8% nationally). The polarisation of the electorate since 2010 and the reaction against minority government means it will not be an election for Greens, independents and ‘others’.
Nevertheless, as a radical socialist, Gillard’s instinct will be to help prevent the Greens’ demise.
The other unknown is we’ve never had an election where around 80% of electronic and print news media have abandoned objective political news gathering to barrack for an incumbent government. As was shown in the US, the combination of media corruption and the purchase of women and minority votes with Free Stuff™ is an unprecedented, cynical political perversion that works. Will an Australian electorate go for it? My heart says no but my head says maybe.
Tom
4 Jan 13 at 5:17 pm
I think it something about keeping the Senate and Reps elections in sync – otherwise there is chance you might have to hold a separate half Senate election.
Ah well, it seems no contest, doesn’t it. But you may be ignoring the problem of Tony Abbott’s intransigence on Carbon pricing. Having made it such an issue of his credibility on complete repeal he has backed himself into a corner. Because while the powers that be may not be enamored with the carbon tax, some form of carbon pricing is seen as inevitable and business may see complete repeal only having to repeat the whole mess five years down the track as inefficient or bad for business. Perhaps if Tony Abbott was more accommodating and made noises about just wanting to hasten the introduction of a carbon emissions trading scheme, he might be allowed to win the election.
Perhaps the fact The Australian refused to go the whole hog on the AWU affair – flirting with it but generally accepting Gillard’s line of no specific accusations and no evidence of wrong-doing – should ring alarm bells with diehard Coalition supporters.
Hell, if it helps I can even tell you the name of the contractor which the AWU paid to do Gillard’s renovations in 1994. It won’t matter because the media, including News Ltd, won’t run this story as they want to keep Gillard viable. And while News Ltd is still happy to keep a wounded Gillard in office, you haven’t got the election in the bag yet.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 5:18 pm
[Harrys - OTT. Sinc]
harrys on the boat
4 Jan 13 at 5:28 pm
apologies Sinc………..
harrys on the boat
4 Jan 13 at 5:29 pm
Sinc, even after your corrections above (in response to Megan’s first post) November could not possibly be considered the 4th most likely option (at least based on those Sportsbet odds).
The figures clearly show that July (over 5%) and June (5%) both have greater chances than November. Indeed ruling a line across the graph shows that November is the last of all possible options (given that January, as you point out, would have had to have had writs already issued — by my calculations they would have had to have been issued in late November for a January election).
The only possible way November could be considered a factor is the polls continuing to show at least a 6+ point 2PP gap between the ALP and Coaltion for the next 4 months, making it more likely that the Slapper & co would prefer to cling on for as long as possible than face the inevitible political wipe-out that they (and their in-house private polling) already know is coming….
[Yes - you're right. I made the change in a hurry and ran off to do something else. That'll learn me to do fings proper. Sinc]
Brian of Moorabbin
4 Jan 13 at 5:34 pm
It takes a zombie idiot who’s never had a job in the real economy to come up with that one: business prefers a big new electricity tax to none at all because it represents certainly.
It takes a zombie idiot not to notice that the AWU scandal has done its job: voters now consider her a corrupt crook who has refused to answer legitimate questions.
I forgot to mention earlier: Gillard has made no headway despite Abbott’s manic adherence to his small target strategy. That will change in an election year. And remember how Qld Labor’s disgraceful pre-election personal attack on CanDo backfired? Never forget also that this incompetent federal rabble has fucked up every major policy challenge it has faced.
Tom
4 Jan 13 at 5:41 pm
Lol Greys is back baby, back!
Like Workhoices, right?
Dumphy, which country is working towards instituting any form of pwice on da carbon at present?
Hang on, Russia just walked out of Kyoto.
That’s a certain vote winner. You ought to be in the political advice business.
Why would it ring alarm bells? Hedley Thomas has done a great job of uncovering the lying slapper’s dishonesty and assistance in the theft of union money. You don’t think so?
You’re the classic conspiracy theorist nutball, Greys. You possess all the classic symptoms. You know the inside scoop, we don’t and the media won’t touch it although it knows it too.
Tell us about JFK again. Lol
JC
4 Jan 13 at 5:42 pm
Lets just say it does take a genius to find out who was behind “Townmode”, it took me 5 minutes. I presume it took News Ltd five minutes also.
So either they are saving it up for a big splash or they want to keep Gillard in the game. I certainly don’t have the inside scoop on that.
As for the inevitably of carbon pricing – this is the trouble of just operating inside a right-wing nutjobs bubble, you lose perspective of what the rest of the world is thinking. In the real world Australia will probably face tariffs down the track in agriculture from the EU if it doesn’t have some kind of carbon pricing.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 5:49 pm
Sorry “does take a genius” should be “doesn’t take a genius”
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 5:50 pm
If the shit hits the fan for Labor in the early months, they will go before May. If we reach May and they deliver a budget, it will be around August or September
Andrew
4 Jan 13 at 5:52 pm
So instead let’s look at it from the perspective of the bankrupt Europe-aligned communist watermelon left…
Tom
4 Jan 13 at 5:56 pm
Yes but this rhetoric has no meaning outside your numerically tiny group of fellow loons.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 5:58 pm
So you admit Europe is bankrupt and an aligned communist watermelon left, but as long as the majority doesn’t see it, that suits you just fine.
what a twat you are.
harrys on the boat
4 Jan 13 at 6:05 pm
As for all countries outside the EU (even poor developing countries), Australian agricultural exports already face tariffs in that market, which incidentally accounts for 8% of our agricultural exports.
manalive
4 Jan 13 at 6:06 pm
Ignore Grey. He’s trying on the knowledgable Leftist insider telling the natives to pipe down jive, but it’s phony because as a conspiracy nut he doesn’t actually have any particular knowledge about anything. Next he’ll be informing you with a knowing smirk that Watergate was really about putting Gillard in power for 20 consecutive terms, and conservatives are “therefore” doomed if they don’t give in and support an ETS.
Fisky
4 Jan 13 at 6:08 pm
And the standard of Leftist troll continues to drop at this place. They just get worse with every cycle. I’m outta here.
Fisky
4 Jan 13 at 6:09 pm
I don’t mind who wins the election personally and don’t care if there is a carbon tax or not. I was just reminded of when I was a child and the government brought in a new tax, the opposition (of course) promised to repeal it. When I told my father that the tax was going to be repealed at the next election, he just laughed and said “Grey, Governments never repeal a tax once they have put it in.” As so it turned out, the opposition lost that election but won the next one and kept the tax in question. Rather like the ALP and the GST.
I would have thought libertarians of all people would understand this.
There are other ways this could play out other than Tony Abbott losing the next election. Maybe he could finesse it somehow, say his hands were tied by the Senate. But please don’t try and tell me his Direct Action plan is anything other than neither fish, nor fowl nor good red herring lunacy. And that is not the only policy stinker that is in the Coalition kit bag at the moment.
I think carbon pricing is here to stay – just like the GST – and so the simplest solution all round might be another 3 years of Gillard.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 6:16 pm
Of course I don’t have any particular knowledge of AWU internal politics. But any fool can go to Pickering site and read the Iam Cambridge affidavit and see the payments to Town Mode.
And any fool can use public databases to find out who is behind Town Mode.
What I admit I don’t know is why organizations like News Ltd have kept a lid on this information. But the facts themselves aren’t secret knowledge – it is all in the public domain.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 6:21 pm
There’s a big issue of trust with the carbon tax and Mr Abbott. They have to repeal it or the Coalition will become damaged goods, people don’t forget, it’s a real big issue.
candy
4 Jan 13 at 6:21 pm
Cut out the newspeak — it’s a carbon dioxide emission tax
manalive
4 Jan 13 at 6:23 pm
I think I have just worked out why ALP has so many stupid voters and has won elections in the past. A Labor supporter on twitter told me that the ALP has had to borrow so much money because of revenue declining so much but then claims that total receipts are lower under this Government are lower than the Howard Government because Labor has “cut taxes” and not because of the GFC. That is a complete oxymoron and explains why Labor’s primary vote is around 33% and not 20%.
Andrew
4 Jan 13 at 6:29 pm
Carbon pricing …
If the green-left feel it is such a laudable aim to reduce CO2 emissions to save the world they wouldn’t need to hide behind loathsome euphemisms.
manalive
4 Jan 13 at 6:31 pm
Grey, Howard took the GST to an election and won. The ALP had absolutely NO mandate to repeal it. Besides, it was a good reform that saw a lot of stupid stamp duties abolished.
The Carbon Dioxide Tax is nothing short of an attack on the fundamentals of our economy and has NEVER been tested at an election. If the Coalition were to win and not repeal it, after spending three years promising they would, would be a huge punch in the face for voters and would almost certainly see them end up a one term government.
You see, this is what you leftists just don’t get, big promises matter. People will forgive you if you don’t spend that $200m you said you would spend, but if you base an entire campaign on a certain thing then don’t do it, bam trust gone. Just as Gillard said there would be no tax and will now end up being a one term wonder than never actually got elected.
For Abbott to not repeal the tax would be the same as the ALP not repealing workchoices, which incidentally actually would have been a good decision. Not repealing the carbon dioxide tax would be bad policy AND breaking a huge promise. That’s twice as bad.
MattR
4 Jan 13 at 6:41 pm
Abbott threatened to go straight to another election last time, Windsor’s justification for ignoring his electorate’s preferences and supporting the Trade Union Party. His real reason was to ensure he got a parliamentary pension. You’d think he’d got enough cash from selling and leasing back his farm for a coal mine.
Abbott can fix the Senate this time by threatenening another double dissolution over the Tree Food Tax to purge it of socialists and allow a clear run for real reform.
The country will face major structural change through the automation revolution with the potential for the poor and unskilled being permanently excluded from the workforce. The Trade Union party may be able to turn this to their advantage if they can mount another scare campaign and boost membership.
Forester
4 Jan 13 at 7:03 pm
Mattr, please don’t mistake me for someone who gives a damn who wins individual elections or the rightness or wrongness of carbon tax – some aspects, like taxing microbial respiration in landfill, strike me as insane.
Well, losing the 2pp votes and the biggest difference between 2pp votes and seats won in recent electoral history. But if the ALP had won in 2001 with a policy of GST repeal they too would had a mandate. IIRC it looked like they would win the next election right up to early in the election year, when the polls began to shift.
What you rightists just don’t get is bankers, big business and media owners matter. If they look at the Coalition and see repeal just leading to future uncertainty and carbon pricing having to be reintroduced 5 years later, they aren’t going to find that very attractive. Unless the Coalition can offer a strategy which sees certainty in this issue, they may well decide better the devil you know than the one you don’t. This isn’t about what you believe or what I believe, it is about what people with stacks of money believe.
Of course it is the people who vote, but don’t think Tony Abbott isn’t susceptible to being Mark Lathamised.
But cheer up and look forward to the glorious triumph of 2016 as Prime Minister Morrison moves into the Lodge.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 7:06 pm
“Expect swan to announced the economy is worsening and throw money at the voters on 1st July – deficit be damned. Another $1000 k.rudd style payout MIT win them another election.”
Well, Obama just got a vote of confidence in spending $4 trillion from americans not yet born, so this should be a walk in the park. Fortunately, Swan is an imbecile so in all likelihood will fluff it.
The Beer Whisperer
4 Jan 13 at 7:10 pm
That’s why I’m voting http://www.ldp.org.au I want real reform, not more Trade Union and Big Business corruption.
If you want to take cold showers and walk to work, go for it, there is nothing stopping you, just keep your thieving hands out of my wallet.
Forester
4 Jan 13 at 7:27 pm
Dole queue logic from someone who’s never had a real job with no idea how business works.
Yeah, I know. I shouldn’t feed the troll. But he’s the only one in the sewer tonight.
Tom
4 Jan 13 at 7:34 pm
Delusional. Sheerly delusional.
Buy up big on those carbin credits, Grey.
Gee, why are you called Grey? That’s a real downer to millions of panting female Fifty Shades fans.
Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.
4 Jan 13 at 8:00 pm
Well, Hristos, you should think a bit further. And all those who say that Tony Abbott will be limited in what he does.
Whoever you vote for, the media stays pretty much the same. The majority of them attack the coalition whether in opposition or in government, and give the left an easy ride unless they aren’t left enough.
blogstrop
4 Jan 13 at 8:09 pm
Well we will see.
Remember how Newspoll spend the last few months of 2012 trying to pretend that the parties were close to neck and neck while other polls were saying there had only been a small narrowing? No I am not saying the polls are made up, but you can skew a poll to give any result you like just by selecting the areas you call. What Newspoll shows is a desire to make things seem closer than they are.
Just as News Ltd sitting on its hands over Julia Gillard and the AWU shows a desire to keep her viable.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 8:11 pm
The ALP can’t go to the next election promising anything (whoever the leader is) — no one will believe them.
So is the ALP/Green coalition spin going to be something like this: it doesn’t matter what you think of the CO2 tax it won’t make any difference anyhow so you might as well vote the ‘carbon tax’ party back into office?
Good luck with that approach.
manalive
4 Jan 13 at 8:12 pm
The ABC today has been full of some woman who sounds like a student activist, peddling the line that society’s ills will be cured providing we can’t see any difference in what men and women are paid.
They’ve given her a full “down on their knees” style of interview on radio and TV. I am unconvinced by the alleged statistics, and their methodology has to be absolutely “transparent” as they like to say, before I’ll change.
blogstrop
4 Jan 13 at 8:14 pm
No, the ALP approach will be Gonski, NDIS, NBN and demand the coalition tell people what their income tax rates will be and suggest that even if they were able to remove the carbon taxes prices won’t come down or come down completely.
I see elements of 1993, 2001 and 2004 in the coming 2013 election victory of the ALP
1993 – two unpopular leaders, the incumbent promising the least change wins.
2001 – a promise by the opposition to unwind a big structural economic change favors the incumbent
2004 – the opposition leader is depicted as unstable and very risky.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 8:20 pm
JC is right. The troll is a full-on paranoid simpleton who believes Rupert Murdoch is deciding the outcome of the election as we speak.
Didn’t realise it was really the East Germans who knocked off JFK. Or was it the Cubans? Or J Edgar Hoover in a bet after a cross-dressing party got out of hand?
Tom
4 Jan 13 at 8:22 pm
Don’t change, Blogstrop. Not yet anyway. Seems someone made an error…
What the ABC didn’t report:
Gab
4 Jan 13 at 8:26 pm
Gee, which set of big govt welfare Statists will win…….
Is there some political gene which is satisfied by rhetorically different but essentially identical branches of the same Rotary Club/ Fabian society?
Me think it amazing.
Alfonso
4 Jan 13 at 8:29 pm
Oh well, then maybe Newspoll was right and the parties were nearly tied – not much ground to make up.
You of all people won’t be surprised if the Coalition has cool their heels for another 3 years. Enjoy them.
Grey
4 Jan 13 at 8:29 pm
If half plus one of the voters in half plus one of the electorates are dependent on the state for daily bread then nothing else matters. I suppose someone has the numbers on that?
Pickles
4 Jan 13 at 8:33 pm
Beyond paranoid, tending to deranged.
mct
4 Jan 13 at 9:05 pm
This is not entirely true because some or many do not like to be in that situation but it is a threat.
kelly liddle
4 Jan 13 at 9:24 pm
I cancelled my subscription to the Australian because of their cowardly attitude to the awu affair and the fact they were intimidated by the red headed scrag ….LONG LIVE FREE SPEECH !
I want my vote !
I want my vote !
I want my country back !
Raven
4 Jan 13 at 9:24 pm
If the PPP is 46% or more, then perhaps another 3 years to allow Gillard and Swan and the other union hacks more opportunities to destroy the Australian economy and society will finally convince them.
Except perhaps for the deluded Grey, Monty and Steves.
Will
4 Jan 13 at 9:36 pm
Thanks, dear Gabrielle. It’s pretty much as one would expect, but you have the goods!
blogstrop
4 Jan 13 at 9:57 pm
Whatever the timing the old Workchoices chestnut will get a run you can bet …and more taxes …..the greens and labor will try to use fear as the tool to reelection
What’s needed I reckon is a Facebook page/ website that enumerates and elucidates on the numerous policy FUs that this labor government has presided over ….since Howard ….anyone got the wherewithal for this ?
Gerry
4 Jan 13 at 10:01 pm
you have the goods!
ah, if only I had a dime every time some bloke told me that…lol
Gab
4 Jan 13 at 10:13 pm
Well that agency is clearly a total failure. I smell budget savings.
Steve of Ferny Hills
4 Jan 13 at 10:22 pm
My prediction when Rudd got in was a two term slurp at the trough, and a $300 Billion deficit on the Australia Credit Card.
My next prediction is another term and a $1 Trillion deficit – all due to an International Financial Emergency. Oh, and market failure, of course.
Buy gold, guns, and ammo.
Winston Smith
4 Jan 13 at 10:27 pm
These AGW lovers. They really are a hoot.
The rest of the world is in full-on walk back away from idiot carbon taxes, and now we should keep it. Why? Not because it will save the planet, but because ‘big business’ will like the certainty.
I wonder, really, how much certainty there is, given that the carbonic tax will fall by 2/3rds once it becomes a floating price. Traded in ever-decreasing numbers by people who have completely lost interest in the entire project.
Tell us again how successful the Kyoto protocol was again? 58% increase in emissions, as opposed to a 5% decrease? Yes, this carbonic trading works a treat!
Believe me, plenty of Australians will park their vote to get rid of this monumentally stupid, regressive, pointless and destructive tax.
And you know what? EIther way, it won’t make one bit of difference to ‘the environment’.
brc
4 Jan 13 at 10:40 pm
Considering that even one of the heads of the carbon trading in Europe has said that the system will need a massive bailout to ever get to those original levels, I hardly think that Australia pulling out of a carbon tax is a massive deal.
Andrew
4 Jan 13 at 10:45 pm
Hewson simply could not explain his policies, that was the reason he lost. Keating was ruthless in destroying Hewson.
If anything, promising to abolish a new tax which raises the prices of goods and services was going to favour the opposition, not the Government. On what planet would a new tax being the main policy favour the incumbent?
2004 was an example of the people not being able to trust Latham because he is a loose cannon. His later action proved that. Many of the policies under the Howard Government were popular as well, such as their more job friendly foresty policy in Tasmania. They also had economic credentials on their side.
Andrew
4 Jan 13 at 10:50 pm
It won’t be September.
That seriously jacks off followers of all footy codes as voting interferes with finals.
Except Collingwood fans, who are mostly in jail and in eligible to vote Labor as they do when they are on parole.
Leigh Lowe
4 Jan 13 at 11:06 pm
Grey must support Collingwood. There can be no other explanation.
Tiny Dancer
4 Jan 13 at 11:38 pm
Grey is just a meme spouting lefty with zero original thought. No doubt Grey laps up Krugman like a thirsty dog on a hot day.
brc
4 Jan 13 at 11:41 pm
I am a Collingwood supporter, have not lost any teeth and my marks say I am intelligent! I reject your stereotype!
Andrew
4 Jan 13 at 11:42 pm
Apologies Andrew.
Although I did say “mostly in jail”.
Of course, not all will be in jail.
Collingwood supporters are, of course, a diverse lot.
Some will be on parole, others will be in rehab, and some will have escaped conviction completely due to the trash left on the bench by Rob Hulls.
The remainder, of course, will be trying to find a way of collecting the single mothers benefit (as amended) until the old age pension kicks in.
Leigh Lowe
4 Jan 13 at 11:53 pm
Leigh Lowe! You are hilarious! One of my favourites!
Andrew, you need your ‘marks’ to know you’re intelligent? Better keep those in a safe place.
Anne
5 Jan 13 at 12:33 am
Just ignore the Pies haters, Andrew. We’ll get them later when they least expect it.
Gab
5 Jan 13 at 12:40 am
Collingwood’s alternate jumper.
sdfc
5 Jan 13 at 12:53 am
Buggered that up.
The link. If it works.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vHeYrfgFm0
sdfc
5 Jan 13 at 12:55 am
LOL Tom, you are the worst political analyst I have ever seen. No one on this site who predicted a Romney victory has any psephological credibility.
m0nty
5 Jan 13 at 5:48 pm