Sometime this year we’ll go to the polls. Unlike the US situation and some States the federal parliament does not have fixed terms. Parliament sits for three years but there is some leeway around that for the timing of actual elections. According to this piece by Antony Green we must must have an election by 30 November (and given the timing of elections we can’t have one in January as writs would have had to be issued already). So when?
The betting market provides the best guess – here I’m looking at Sportsbet. I’ve calculated the probabilities of an election being held in any month.
So September is most likely, followed by August, then October.
Who is going to win? Right now the betting market is predicting a Coalition victory.