Wayne Unleashed

Fresh from jettisoning their surplus pledge (repeat after me: Wayne Swan has never and will never deliver a budget surplus), I hear that departments are being asked for budget ideas, without any offsets.

This means that the Gillard / Swan government is preparing for the mother-of-all big spending pre-election budgets in May. What have they got to lose?

This lot are like desperate gamblers just teetering on the edge, knowing they are going to fail. But unlike that desperate gambler, who can really only ruin himself and his family, the Gillard Government can simply spend other peoples’ money – our money, and our children’s money.

It’s shameful. Instead of just leaving the stage with some dignity, the Gillard Government is going to spend up big with borrowed money on one last throw of the die on 14 May 2013.

About J

J has an economics background and is a part-time consultant
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63 Responses to Wayne Unleashed

  1. johno

    This reckless spending must stop!!

    KRudd 2007

  2. Grey

    Instead of just leaving the stage with some dignity, the Gillard Government is going to spend up big with borrowed money on one last throw of the die on 14 May 2013.

    Wouldn’t be so sure about leaving the stage. Already some nervous coalition strategists are trying to think of ways to help Abbott dig himself of his carbon hole
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4458428.html

    A big spending budget could be just what it takes to push the ALP over the line.

  3. Greigoz

    Why not – Obama did it… and won. The press will support Gillard’s ‘breathtaking policy initiatives’, without asking once who/how to pay for it.

  4. Bruce

    are being asked for budget ideas

    Food stamps and free phones? Gillardcare, now that’s a winner.

  5. Alfonso

    I believe the figure to buy govt is about a $5000 cheque per household.
    Easy peecy if Jules can find the money.

    Son of Khemlani perhaps?

  6. Rabz

    Food stamps and free phones? Gillardcare, now that’s a winner.

    Cradle to grave welfare, including taxpayer subsidised birth control.

    They even have a ready made ‘julia’.

    You know it makes sense.

  7. stackja

    Has Swanny been listening to?

    “You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money when you’re sittin at the table. There’ll be time enough for countin when the dealins done.” “The Gambler” is a song written by Don Schlitz and recorded by American country music artist Kenny Rogers.

    When the voting done we will know who held and who folded. ALP does know how to fool people. There maybe just enough twits to help the ALP.

  8. Grey

    Perhaps the bigger question to ask if/when the coalition lose 2013 election, what changes in policy and leadership should be made?

    I reckon Malcolm Turnball and cap and trade will start looking awfully good in November 2013.

  9. jupes

    Wouldn’t be so sure about leaving the stage

    Lol. You keep watching the ABC Grey.

  10. Lloyd

    I haven’t been able to find anyone in my circle of acquaintances who has good word for Gillard & Co. That includes clients from a wide section of the community and dyed in the wool Laborites. The most common response is “That awful woman.”

    No doubt the 2PP opinion polls will narrow once an election is called but I think the LNP will win by at least 52-48% unless something explosive occurs in the meantime.

  11. jupes

    I reckon Malcolm Turnball and cap and trade will start looking awfully good in November 2013.

    Hammy, is that you?

  12. Keith

    Probably well into the grandkid’s money at this stage.

    without asking once who/how to pay for it

    Greigoz, they don’t need to ask. They’ll be providing the answer – Gina, of course.

  13. TonyO

    Grey: “I reckon Malcolm Turnball and cap and trade will start looking awfully good in November 2013.”

    Turnbull and ‘Cap & Trade’ will only look good to idiots.

  14. Grey

    Turnbull and ‘Cap & Trade’ will only look good to idiots.

    Seriously, you think it would be a good idea to go to the 2019 election insisting on dismantling carbon pricing?

    Suits me, of course.

  15. jumpnmcar

    This is a direct response to Rudd saying raise the dole the other day. Rudd owns Gillard/Swan strategically.
    Rudds directing ALP policy from the back bench of their minds.

  16. Token

    Seriously, you think it would be a good idea to go to the 2019 election insisting on dismantling carbon pricing a pointless tax which has no ability to change the temperature of the planet in any way and forces the poorest in society to pay for the toys of the inner city rich?

    Fixed for you.

    Plus, the answer is YES.

  17. Grey

    Oh good.
    Would your answer change if in 2018 President Clinton* announces the introduction of the American Cap and Trade scheme?

  18. Rabz

    Would your answer change if in 2018 President Clinton* announces the introduction of the American Cap and Trade scheme?

    Ghey,

    A word in your shell like.

    Ease up on the psychotropics, son.

  19. Token

    Would your answer change if in 2018 President Clinton* announces the introduction of the American Cap and Trade scheme?

    By that time emissions from China, India & other development nations will have increased to a point that it is clear (even more clear than today) there is not a significant correlation between temperature & carbon emissions by humans (which equate to 3% of total global emissions).

  20. jupes

    Would your answer change if in 2018 President Clinton* announces the introduction of the American Cap and Trade scheme?

    Of course. Because copying moronic ideas is what advances society.

    Idiot.

  21. TonyO

    Grey: “Seriously, you think it would be a good idea to go to the 2019 election insisting on dismantling carbon pricing?”

    Seriously, do you think subscribing to the biggest scam in the history of the civilised world is a “good idea”???

    You, Sir, are a total fuckwit.

  22. Grey

    Ease up on the psychotropics, son.

    If only I could, but the voices threaten me if I try.

  23. Rabz

    If only I could, but the voices threaten me if I try.

    Is there not a tree in a wilderness somewhere you could be living in?

  24. Mk50 of Brisbane

    Rabz

    I have two cousns who spend all the time they can in the Tanami.

    They’ve mentioned a great spot for a hermit on the eastern run of the Turner escarpment, on the Turner River in the kimberley. Place they call Battleship Mound (not an official name, just their nickname). Got very close neighbours though, Turner River Station’s within 50k.

    I can just see Ghey set up as a hermit there. Give him a hair shirt and a copy of the unabridged speeches of the annual plenary meetings of the Communist party of the Soviet Union had he’d be set for life.

  25. Bruce

    Like to see Turnbull getting C&T up when (a) temperatures keep falling for another 4 years and (b) when even his alma ata closes their carbon trading desk like Barclays and (soon) Deutsche Bank (after the police get done with them).

    UN carbon credits hit 26 cents/t yesterday.

    Both the UK Met Office (ie Hadley Centre of Climategate fame) and NASA (the Hockey Team) are now starting to go into damage control. Sucked in, guys and gals!

  26. Craig Mc

    I see the ALP government is putting some thought into its post-election strategy. The Crozet Islands might be one of the few places left they’re welcome at.

  27. Grey

    @ ahh yes, the great chill, like the collapse of Sweden is perennially just about to take place

    Anthony Watts in early 2009
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/17/beryllium-10-and-climate/
    “Thus the recent fall of aa Index and Ap Index to lows never seen before in living memory is of considerable interest. This reminds me of a line out of Aliens: “Stay frosty people!” Well, we won’t have any choice – it will get frosty.”

    4 years later and we still wait….

  28. Bruce of Newcastle

    Grey – try the first link. Or if you prefer olde fashioned terrestrial thermometers, this link instead.

    My model has a peak in the mid phase of solar cycles, which is now. NASA says this week they agree with this 2 years after I built the model. Interesting that the mid solar cycle ‘peak’ is a net fall in temperature, not a noticeable peak. A couple of years time will be interesting. Fortunately by then Gillard and Swannie will be long gone.

  29. brc

    People. Please. The idiot is trolling you and you’re all snapping like hungry flatheads on live bait.

    We know carbon taxing is a losing policy. Both parties went to the last election promising not to introduce it. We know global warming is a dying religion, and as such it’s fruitbat supporters are currently at their most dangerous.

    But just let them go. They can’t harm us anymore. The greens are in terminal decline now their poppy has gone, and the ALP will run from carbon taxing as soon as they are rid of this particular leader.

    The issue is Wayne brave new post-surplus world, where the spending flows freely, and it’s a springsteen poster in every pot.

    Personally I think they’ve seen Obama get away with it, and are going to give it a red-hot go. We’ve already seen Wayne using his ‘Tea Party crazies’ line every time someone mentions fiscal responsibility. Expect a lot more of that.

  30. Jazza

    We have been saying here for moths that Gillard will promise the earth in a desperate bid to retain power at any price to us for eyars after wards. Hopefully, one of the apparently disgracefully go slow(think Craig Thomson) police depts might just want to interview her this year and throw a cat among her pigeons I HOPE

  31. Jazza

    No we said it not to moths but for MONTHS–slaps side of own head!

  32. John Comnenus

    I don’t think Wayne Swan would be able to buy a gun in the US if they did a background psych check. The man is insane, in the most dangerous way. He knows exactly what he is doing and just doesn’t care. Anything to win or stay in power.

  33. Bruce

    you’re all snapping

    Wrong fish mate. You should be thinking of these. Trolls taste like chicken.

  34. Boambee John

    Grey: Malcolm Turnbull (that’s with a second ‘u’, not an ‘a’) even looks like Mitt Romney. I’m sure you can well imagine (I certainly can) the campaign the ABC and Fairfax would run against him, once he (perish the very thought) became Liberal leader! Wealthy, out of touch, i%, …

  35. Boambee John

    That’s 1%, not i%!!

  36. Andrew

    I hear that departments are being asked for budget ideas, without any offsets.

    So these MP’s are suppose to be some of the smartest people in the country and yet they can’t think or develop any policies?

  37. Carpe Jugulum

    Personally I think they’ve seen Obama get away with it, and are going to give it a red-hot go. We’ve already seen Wayne using his ‘Tea Party crazies’ line every time someone mentions fiscal responsibility. Expect a lot more of that.

    brc – what scares me the most is that you are right. Unfortunately i think that is how the election will be fought.

  38. jumpnmcar

    Swan justs needs to ask Campbell Newman what is smart and do the opposite and allahpeanutbuttersandwiches an ALP policy is born.

  39. Rousie

    This is less about the election & more about throwing the wavering backbenchers a bone. The current leadership are living fortnight to fortnight.

  40. Tel

    Personally I think they’ve seen Obama get away with it, and are going to give it a red-hot go. We’ve already seen Wayne using his ‘Tea Party crazies’ line every time someone mentions fiscal responsibility. Expect a lot more of that.

    Personally I don’t think Obama has gotten away with it yet. The US economy and US dollar are under huge pressure right now. They haven’t even started figuring out how they are going to deal with paying the “internal debt” over to Social Security, and they just imposed a tax rise to the middle class.

    Australia can survive Wayne Swan longer than the US can survive its current path (not all to blame on Obama, because Bush deserves blame too). At least Obama is pulling troops out of the Middle East, which will save them a bit of money, but that could be a year or more in the making.

  41. JC

    Few serious problems with this strategy.

    Are they going to make promises or introduce the bribes at the next budget?

    1. If they introduce the bribes at the next budget the punters will see the budget blow out. I’m not convinced this would be a good move by them. The punters will take the money and still vote for the other side, which is what happened to Howard. Others will see it as a bribe, watch the budget blow out and get really pissed off with them even more.

    2, They make promises of future spending. Who the fuck will believe the Lying Slapper? In fact these promises could actually make it worse for her as people are reminded that she lies and can’t trust her word about anything.

    I’m not seeing how a spendathon can work.

  42. Tel

    …in 2018 President Clinton* announces…

    * You mean Hillary no doubt.

    Sorry, but a pet hate is when there’s a little asterisk marker on the label of a product, and then you can’t find details of the disclaimer. For example:

    “Widget With a Lifetime* Guarantee.”

    Then you turn the thing over and over to figure out where the little asterisk leads and it is nowhere to be found! I really hate that.

  43. Tel

    In fact these promises could actually make it worse for her as people are reminded that she lies and can’t trust her word about anything.

    That’s where they have got you out foxed, she is going to promise to balance the budget even harder.

  44. Rousie

    JC – hence their reasoning for making announcements (NDIS etc) pre-election so they can try to frame them as ‘achievements’ rather than ‘promises’.

    Jettisoning the surplus is an internal message for backbenchers that they’ll be able to get a new surf club or some such. But the subtitles are ‘don’t vote me out as leader’. It’s the thing that frightens the slapper the most.

  45. JC

    The US economy and US dollar are under huge pressure right now.

    That’s not really true. The last GDP number was okish. Non-farm payrolls is mediocre and the Dollar is holding in within an acceptable range.

  46. JC

    Rousie

    I’ve already seen Hockey bat the NDIS thing for six.

    He basically laughed at the interviewer for even suggesting anything the Lying Slapper said could be believed.

    All the libs need to do with future Liars party promises is say they will look at them, not totally discount them but really get studies done on how they will fit within a spending envelope, moan that there’s no money because they louts have spent it all on nothing, which will mean belt tightening and remind people that the Slapper is an opportunistic liar and Shane Wand is worse.

    This is easy to counter.

  47. Tel

    The US Labor Force Participation Rate continues to get worse (not dramatically), so 2012 was worse than 2011 (by a fraction of a percent) and 2011 was worse than 2010 as well. This is not a recovery.

    Also:

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mfwFt7oA-ws/UKUGzbyMmQI/AAAAAAAAViA/VPpId7jUMc8/s1600/MBSANDSQ32012.jpg

    Yes, it has improved a bit since the worst hit, but seriously, at the rate it is “recovering” there could be a decade or more to get back to 2006 values. Some of the improvement is that the banks have lost interest in chasing hard on bad debt, because they can’t profit on it anyhow.

    Beyond that, look at the chart of 30 year FRM and 15 year FRM in the USA. Down, down and more down. How low can it go? CPI inflation in the USA is around 2% (officially) and the 15 year FRM is at 2.66% implying that real return on capital is 0.66% (!)

    The only thing keeping the US dollar looking good is that the muddleheaded EU won’t allow Greece to admit a default and get it over with.

  48. candy

    perhaps Australians have been too spoilt by the Howard/Costello years and surpluses and good government are still remembered.

    Although several $1000 per person free stuff/money could just put Labor over the line.

  49. Tel

    Then there’s the US student loan bubble, which is juuuust starting to tip over the edge.

  50. JC

    Tel

    Don’t overthink. The US economy is actually doing ok, despite the supply shocks the Kenyan has introduced.

    The real estate market is turning around and in some regions there’s actually a shortage developing. The energy markets will continue to make headway. The US car fleet is around 11 years old. A record! This market will do well this year.

    The US dollar is basically range bound. Things of course can change, but the US economy will be a performing well this year in relative terms.

  51. WhaleHunt Fun

    Abbott just needs to declare the Greens a terrorist organisation, round them up and interrogate them like at Gitmo. I have met not one person who does not want them tortured for the refugee drownings and the bushfire deaths. That would bring some balance back to public affairs.

  52. John A

    Grey, you pontificated:

    “Turnbull and ‘Cap & Trade’ will only look good to idiots.”

    Seriously, you think it would be a good idea to go to the 2019 election insisting on dismantling carbon pricing?

    Suits me, of course.

    Have you still not realised that the fixed part only lasts until 2014-15? After that, the trade part of ‘cap and trade’ kicks in, and businesses trade certificates supposedly without the government being involved.

    So how is the government going to rake in the moolah when they have let go of the certificates? And what the hell is the budget deficit going to be like then, eh?

    And I haven’t even started on the “value” of the certificates per tonne yet!

  53. John Mc

    At least Obama is pulling troops out of the Middle East, which will save them a bit of money, but that could be a year or more in the making.

    This is one of the biggest myths going. Compared to the entire defence budget it’s a drop in the ocean. The US needs to cut spending on the national defence in a meaningful way to actually save money.

  54. Honesty

    Brc is spot on. The punters do get it right they will get up to speed this year. The sole ALP election strategy of attack Abbott will fail as the punters will not stand for it as it goes against giving people a fair go. That little Scottish Terrier John McT is about to be mauled to death by pack of dingos smelling blood. If you don’t think the mood of the punters has changed you just have not been to your local pub.

  55. Tel

    This is one of the biggest myths going. Compared to the entire defence budget it’s a drop in the ocean. The US needs to cut spending on the national defence in a meaningful way to actually save money.

    If you believe costofwar.com the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns represent 10% of the total US gross debt. I don’t call that a drop in the ocean, but it does suggest that they still have 90% to think about.

  56. Tel

    The US car fleet is around 11 years old. A record!

    The record was 11.1 if you want to be precise from about Feb 2012 (that’s bad for the economy because it was a record high meaning people are making do with their old clunker, and refusing to buy).

    You might expect everyone to feel the urge to rush out an buy a new car “real soon now” but that depends on the individual preferences. Also, if they decide to buy a cheap Korean import it will put even more pressure on the US dollar. At least 5 people I know drive decade-old cars and they are mechanically in A1 condition, absolutely no incentive to replace it (beyond vanity, or whim).

  57. Tom

    I hadn’t realised the governing rabble was so criminally delinquent when it comes to money:

    Five years ago, the Rudd government lifted the nation’s credit card limit to $75 billion, increasing it again the following year to $200 billion. The Gillard government increased the country’s credit limit to $250 billion in 2011 and again to $300 billion in 2012.

    Presumably when the Libs left office, the limit was around $50 billion, which was unneeded. With the pre-election vote-buying exercise now underway, the only question is the 2013 date on which Gillard-Swan will bust the $300 billion limit. Mid-year looks optimistic. The annual interest bill is now around $1500 per household. FMD.

  58. jules

    ‘Springsteen Poster’ or ‘Super Tramp’ PM, they’re finished. Gillard has to concern herself with the growing electoral hush. Minds are made up!

  59. Biota

    I have always envisaged labor behaving like wide-eyed kids let loose in a lolly shop once it dawned on them that they had full access to untold amounts of money. Self control was not a feature.

  60. Paul

    Will the mainstream media call them to account with serious analysis? Of course not. It will then be left to an incoming Liberal government to try and sort it out against a backdrop of a hostile media environment…as usual.

  61. Angry God

    Every comment that I read from Grey is a rather poor contribution, made along Hawker Britton tactical lines and rarely offers actual insight. It must be fun to be paid to sit at a keyboard, but you should at least earn your Astroturfing pay there Grey. Turnbull is not on the Radar, because we all know what the polls showed the party at when he was leader. He is even worse when compared to Rudd. So why would any reasonable person believe hack journalism and paid contributors will impact on the common sense of the conservative component of this nation.

    Gillard will be gone in three weeks time anyway. This latest bribe for the start of the new school year is so obvious that it is pathetic. In a well run economy, waste like this is not even required.

  62. val majkus

    Paul the MSM don’t do serious analysis

  63. The more I think of it, the more it seems a good idea. When the AbbottAbbottAbbott government comes in, they just roll over the debt the Labor party has made, pay the minimum, and let everyone know that it will become payable next time Labor is voted back in.

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