… and they’re off.

I have an op-ed in The Conversation talking about the early election announcement.

Every election gives rise to regime uncertainty. That is the possibility that a change in government policy will adversely affect business. This is likely to happen irrespective of whether the government wins or loses the election. Even when government wins, elections are a time where a raft of new policies are presented to the electorate. Of course, when government changes hands, a lot of existing policy is changed (and new policies introduced). So I’m not convinced that announcing the date of the election will change any concerns the business community may have regarding future policy directions.

But we do now have an additional consideration. The date of the election is known, but the government is not in caretaker mode. Given the expectation that the government will lose the coming election, should it be in caretaker mode? Reasonable people can disagree on this point. After all, having the government in caretaker mode for eight months is a bit too long. Yet can the business community — and anyone else — be confident that announced policy will be implemented? I suspect not.

Please go through to The Conversation and read the whole thing – the clicks count.

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33 Responses to … and they’re off.

  1. Pedro

    I’ve done your click, but I’ll put the comment here.

    My feeling is that the announcement won’t change much of what will happen from day to day in politics. She’s already announced the duration of the caretaker period and there is plenty of time to implement policy from now till then. As you say, the announcement confirms popular expectations.

    If anything is different, it is that an early election is off the table and that is a new position for the opposition.

  2. Matt

    If anything is different, it is that an early election is off the table …

    Like hell it is. The ALP are as committed to a 14 Sept election as they were to not having a carbon tax and a 2012/13 surplus – i.e. as long as it suited them.

  3. Pedro

    I love this from the other piece there:

    “Julia Gillard is an Australian political pioneer in many ways. She was the first female prime minister, she led the first minority government in the post-war period and recently moved to appoint the first female senator from an indigenous Australian background.”

    If she’s pioneering with the first minority govt then that’s burke and wills-ish. And the first indigenous female senator? That’s pioneering? The first indigenous senator was appointed in 1971 and had many terms of service for not-the-alp, and there have been female senators for decades.

  4. Pedro

    Matt, I hope you’re correct, but not even the goose would think they can go early now.

    “Even this election is a broken promise!”

  5. m0nty

    the clicks count.

    For what, your payment level? 🙂

  6. boy on a bike

    It gets bumfinger off the front page. That’s all it’s good for.

  7. stackja

    the clicks count.

    How many clicks needed? Who is counting?
    What will ABC-Fairfax do now?

  8. Infidel Tiger

    the clicks count.

    An IPA outrage competition I imagine.

  9. H B Bear

    Gillard and her clown posse couldn’t govern when they were supposed to have a majority on the floor of the House. How do they suppose they will do so having placed the Parliament in some kind of no man’s land for 8 months?

    I will be surprised if we can’t get the baseball bats out before mid-September.

  10. Sinclair Davidson

    For what, your payment level?

    I wish.

  11. Poor Old Rafe

    “I don’t see how the early announcement assists business, but I can see how it might shore up Ms Gillard’s position within the government.”

    So we have to to the point where that is the top priority for decision-making at the highest level in the land!

    Funny if not tragic.

  12. johno

    We shouldn’t expect that the election will be held on 14 September. She has broken every other promise she has made. Nothing has changed other than that she has given herslf another opportunity to break a promise.

    That’s the Labor way. 🙂

  13. Poor Old Rafe

    Gillard in schoolteacher mode. Interesting observation from BoltA

    “Wearing glasses publically for the first time I can recall, Gillard sold herself instead as the bringer of a year of “cool and reasoned deliberation”.”

  14. Myrrdin Seren

    Dear Doomlord

    Duly clicked through to tax-payers funded Conversation as requested.

    You did not include the word ‘pedagogy’ in your article.
    The yackademics won’t understand what you are talking about with the sacred phrases ?

  15. Gab

    yackademics

    Excellent! and befitting.

  16. duncanm

    “Wearing glasses publically for the first time I can recall”

    yup.. I noticed that too.

    Do a google image search on “Julia Gillard” and not one image of her previously wearing glasses pops up.

    Its a stupid stunt to make us believe the yabby has a brain in her skull.

  17. stackja

    duncanm 30 Jan 13 at 5:09 pm

    McT told her to wear glasses. Why? The new School Mam look?

  18. Zatara

    Apparently, she saw Hilary wearing her glases in her big interview yesterday and is trying to borrow some gravitas.

    Check the style of the glasses, identical.

    Clinton Specs

  19. Gab

    Is Greg Combet still looking around for his glasses?

  20. Zatara

    Hillary, glasses…. I’m now off to fire my staff.

  21. Keith

    The Windsock says he’s going to contest the election, but also muttered something about his health and the health of his family. I see a late, regretful withdrawal around about August.

  22. The glasses are 100% a grab at gravitas.

    If you’re a Catholic or Eastern Orthodox, 14 September is the feast of the Triumph of the Cross.

    In this election, I’m hoping it will be the Triumph of the Really Cross.

  23. hzhousewife

    My teenager started wearing black-rimmed cosmetic eye-glasses about ten days ago…….

    Hubby and I are having an unaccustomed mid-week glass of wine tonight !!!! We expect no relief in sight anyway, BUT, a change may be as good as a holiday.

  24. Dan

    I get the impression from your piece Sinclair that the alp will flood the parliament with bills.

  25. PS very good, Boy on a Bike, 4.37pm. Very good indeed. I am picturing this morning’s breakfast table discussion as we speak. Something along the lines of ‘Well, I really have no other choice NOW, do I, Tim?’

  26. Rabz

    also muttered something about his health and the health of his family.

    Given windbore’s rather obvious hypertension problem, I’m surprised his head hasn’t exploded by now.

    Oh well, there’s still plenty of time…

  27. Rabz

    The glasses are 100% a grab at gravitas.

    Then they’re a 100% failure in that case.

    And no, they don’t make her look more intelligent, either.

  28. Cold-Hands

    I heard Josh Frydenberg on ABC 774 saying that holding the election on Yom Kippur was “sloppy”. He doesn’t feel that it was calculated (to the Jewish community, it is analogous to holding the election on Good Friday), or that it will stop devout Jews from voting- as they would vote early or vote by post, as elections are always held on the sabbath- but it will stop them from manning booths, distributing how-to-vote cards or participating fully in the electoral process. As a Jewish candidate, he is yet to decide how much of the usual things (visiting booths, talking to voters, trying to win last minute votes…) that he will do.

    I doubt that the PM would have planned the election for during Ramadan or on Eid…

  29. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    That Conversation really does talk to itself in congratulatory mode. What a feeble load of comments, ably knocked-down by Sinclair’s lone supporter.

    Yackademics, yetch.

    I have no desire to give my name or email address to that outfit though. I am careful about where I travel on the net.

  30. Lazlo

    Sorry, but I refuse to click through to The Conversation and bolster their numbers.

    I did a couple of pieces for them in the early days, but then decided to tell them that I no longer wanted to be on their contact list, due to their relentless AGW propaganda from the likes of the Loon.

    I should be burned at the stake.

  31. Econocrat

    Sinc,

    It would seem to me this puts insurance in against Slipper or Thomson resigning.

    If there is a casual vacancy, the Speaker or GG can issue writ (Constitution, sec 33). However, if it is sufficiently close to a general election, they can just wait until then.

  32. Rococo Liberal

    Econocrat

    If there is more than one casual vacancy, then the Opposition can pass a vote of no confidence and take over the Government benches

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