Catallaxy survey I (closed)

The survey has now closed. There were 1368 responses.

On question 1, will the election be held on 14 September 2013, 66% said no and 34% yes.

Of those who voted yes (467 votes), the Prime Minister who advises the GG formally was said to be: Gillard (75.9%), Abbott (14.9%), Rudd (6.8%), Shorten (1.6%), Swan (0.5%) and Carr (0.2%).

Of those who voted no (901 votes), the Prime Minister who advises the GG was a rather bigger mix, with quite a few Senators (who would have to move to the HoR). There were a few votes undecided. Of the 890 votes cast for a particular person, they were: Gillard (36.6%), Rudd (29.4%), Abbott (19.9%), Shorten (6.3%), Crean (1.9%), Swan (1.7%), Bob Carr (1.1%), Combet (0.9%), Ferguson (0.7%), Conroy (0.3%), Smith (0.2%), Craig Thomson (0.2%), and then 0.1% each for: Bowen, Clare, Rhiannon, Butler, Wong and Garrett.

Of the alternative election dates, the most popular was 20 April and 25 May (both around 9%) and then 4 May (7%). 48% of those who voted for an alternative date chose a date 25 May or earlier.

CLICK HERE FOR RESULTS

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J has an economics background and is a part-time consultant
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70 Responses to Catallaxy survey I (closed)

  1. Grey

    Delighted to help. I was disappointed at the limited range of candidates to be PM at the time of the next election. No Bill Shorten – what about Erich Abetz and his little dog?
    I hummed and haa-ed over whether to nominate the cleanskin Rob Oakeshott for the job and finally went with a vindicated Craig Thomson taking the position by unanimous acclaim.

    While I have no reason to doubt Ms Gillard, it would be a lovely piece of machiavellianism to suddenly “realise” that the 14th of September was Yom Kippur day and in the interests of inclusiveness to move the election forwards a week or two – hoping to disrupt Coalition planning. Such cleverness would probably backfire, in my opinion.

  2. Cold-Hands

    As pointed out in the Australian’s Strewth column, September 19th is “Talk Like a Pirate Day”. By shifting the Election to 21st September, the PM could ensure that for one day at least in the lead up to the polls, the electorate would be listening. Arrrh, my hearties!

  3. Tintarella di Luna

    Such cleverness would probably backfire, in my opinion.

    I agree, Grigio, we have seen how Ms Gillard’s other clevernesses have panned out.

  4. Borisgodunov

    Is it not interesting that few people beleive giLIARds date wont be election day ! Do the huge majority beleive g i LIARd is LYING ? AGAIN!

  5. candy

    Borisgodunov, I don’t think they’ll change the election date, it would be just too weird, just dumbfounding.

  6. manalive

    It is perfectly obvious that with her appalling record of deceit Gillard cannot lead the ALP into an election campaign.
    Shortly before the writs are issued (probably Aug 12), she will resign or be dumped in favour of Rudd repeating the ALP strategy prior to the ’83 election.

  7. sdfc

    That’s actually probably not a bad strategy for them. Otherwise it is hard to envisage anything other than a complete route.

  8. mareeS

    I went June 8, but after today there’s no way they can stumble around till then.

  9. Maree, I’m almost tempted to agree with you, but after the spectacle of the last three years I’m not sure any of the normal rules apply any more. AFAIK nobody has ever nominated an election date this far out before and nobody has ever nominated it without having the writs in hand as soon as possible thereafter.

    And while nobody has (again AFAIK) ever before changed the date once announced, there is the matter of the aforementioned writs – until they are formally issued, that date is not really set in stone.

    Candy, the same goes for what you’ve said. Boris has a point, only inasmuch as constitutional factors may force the government’s hand. Gillard can take the precedent of a known election date trumping by-elections all she likes, but if MPs and Senators are falling off the tree all around her, it’s only a matter of time before the farce becomes so complete that even the sockpuppet of a GG that we have now is forced to act in some way.

  10. Samuel J

    Remember that the power to dissolve parliament and issue writs for election rests with the GG.

    In fact Gillard has broken protocol – PMs always first visit the
    GG and only when the GG has agreed do they speak publicly about an election date.

  11. Token

    So Grey listens to Bolt & Price. Considering he plays at being a fruitbat lefty, seems a strange way to spend his time.

  12. grumpy

    Can I change my vote now that Chris Evans and Roxon have started the exodus?

  13. Poida

    Like Samuel J, I was wondering about the GG and the issuing of writs etc until I realised that the GG and Julia are ‘in the same club’ so as to speak. Our PM doesn’t seem to comprehend all this political protocol and indeed, the responsibilities of her office.

  14. Gab

    Wow 576 responses. Impressive.

  15. derFRED

    After getting the nod from überpatron Bill Ludwig, Beaconsfield hero Bill “shorty” Shorten will name the real election date of May 4 2013.

    Run a sweep, Samuel.

    Imagine the screeching in the lame-arse media if a conservative government was as fucked up as this lot.

    At which stage does incompetence become sabotage?

  16. Lizzie

    There are a lot of people tipping Easter Saturday as polling day. Ooops

  17. MDMConnell

    Will the election be held on 14th September? “Tony Abbott!!!”

    Which date will it be held on? “Andrew Bolt! Alan Jones! HATE MEDIA!!”

    Who will be sitting PM? “Sexism! Bully! AbbottAbbottAbbott!!!!!”

    There, now I can join the Labor front bench…

  18. Jessie

    Samuel J,

    I understood that Gillard was loathe to interrupt the GG’s diary event, a visit to the Deep South Antarctica.

    Mawson’s unexpected stay in 1913, following 1912 I expect the PM is stating ambiguously as the purpose of the trip? Maybe some new weather station data?

    I would have thought GG could have jumped on an RFDS jet, particularly as she is a Patron of that service. Maybe Dick Smith does a cheaper tour with snacks of slivered foie gras?

  19. C.L.

    They’re the most crappily tabulated results I’ve ever seen.

    Is there a simple breakdown somewhere?

  20. Pedro the Ignorant

    Poll question: Who will be the next Governor General after Billy’s mum in law gets the shove?

    I am genuinely interested to see if the old coventional style of military man/non activist judge/church man is back in favour with the public after flirting with Labor mates and PC appointments as GG.

  21. Samuel J

    CL – I’ll try to get a graphic display of the results up

  22. .

    Church man?

    That was a total fizzler.

    Just alternate between random selection of Major Generals/AVMs/Rear Admirals and above and random selection of High Court judges, sub in State Appeals Court judges for High Court Justices for State Governorships.

  23. Fleeced

    I just saw the footage of Gillard talking about the early departures – thissue in hand, talking about how it’s an emotional day… LMAO – what a joke.

    What’s shocking is that so many people will still vote ALP. You have to be retarded to still vote ALP with the current mob – and the polls suggest what, 46%? *shakes head*

  24. Samuel J

    CL – does the results display work for you now?

  25. Andrew

    There are a lot of people tipping Easter Saturday as polling day.

    That is understandable. The morning after an election on that date will feel the equivalent happiness of Jesus rising again. :D

  26. candy

    It’s beautifully presented data and very detailed and interesting, and the questionnaire is presented very neatly and nice choice of colours, really good.

  27. Dianne

    God I hope it is Gillard – think about how hilarious that concession speech is going to be.

    It’s gonna be a train wreck!

  28. Rabz

    does the results display work for you now?

    Can you embiggen the pie chart for the election days?

    It’s just wrong. 30 November has a significant number of responses, but it’s not even on there.

  29. old bloke

    I have heard that September 14th is the last possible date for a half Senate election. Is this correct?

  30. Gab

    CL – does the results display work for you now? lol, he did seem a bit grumpy about the earlier display. You’ve done a nice job updating the display, Samuel.

  31. Matt

    What always puzzles me is the amount of people I know who say they would vote for Kevin if he became PM again. Do they not realise that they will simply knife him again months after the election.
    What also bothers me is those who won’t vote the libs because of what tony might do and completely ignore what has actually been done.

  32. Matt

    In regards to the survey I put the first date in May so they can get out of doing another budget but I think Julia may very well get rolled this month (wishful thinking) and whoever is put in will give themselves a month before calling such as what happened last time

  33. pete m

    Impressed at number of responses, sock puppets and all.

    Must be more lurkers here than one imagines.

    Gillard has had a beautiful start to her re-election campaign. I didn’t think 2010 could be topped in its sheer lunacy, such as the pretend meeting with Rudd etc, but she is doing a bang up job of surpassing it.

  34. Alfonso

    Our Julia, still and forever genetically locked into class struggle with Welsh pit owners, will do what when let go?
    Something to do with wimmen at the UN, maybe St Vinnies in Altona, perhaps a Curves franchise with Tim…..the world’s her oyster.

  35. If we didn’t hold elections exclusively on a Saturday, I’d have nominated 11 November. What a fitting day that would be to bring down the hammer on these wankers.

  36. .

    What’s shocking is that so many people will still vote ALP. You have to be retarded to still vote ALP with the current mob – and the polls suggest what, 46%? *shakes head*

    Remember that Roy Morgan still calls it 51:49 2PP and too close to call.

    I think that’s incorrect but it is worrying.

    Example. Friend works as a teacher. In a private (Catholic) school. Colleague tells my friend.

    “Always vote labor”

    But what if they screw up really, really badly?

    “Always vote labor”

    Hasn’t this Wilson affair and Thomson thing pissed you off?

    “Always vote labor”

    But they can’t balance the budget during most of my lifetime, Swan broke his promise.

    “Always vote labor”

    Are you a member of the ALP?

    “No, but always vote labor”

  37. (UPDATE: We plan to have a regular weekly survey. If you have suggestions for questions to poll, please leave them in the comments in this thread).

    How about “Who will be the next ALPoid to resign?”

  38. maurie

    Well, if nothing else your survey reveals much of the effectiveness of the mongrel name calling by the union puppets pretending to be our government!
    Every time they suck the electorate into letting them in, they immediately begin two things. One is to very quickly begin feathering their nests. Two is
    they commence a constant stream of loud abuse because they know full well so many ignorant & gullible voters always believe it!

  39. Greg James

    You’ve asked for comments as to how the poll could better be presented.

    How about linking each individual’s vote to their screen name on this site?

    For instance, I picked 25 May 2013, and I’m happy enough to stick with that, but you wouldn’t know from the survey who picked what and when.

    Anyway, it’s just a suggestion, and frankly I don’t much care how the poll is presented.

    All I know is that whenever the election is going to be held I have a couple of bottles of champagne on ice [and I don't even drink the stuff] to celebrate the inevitable demise of Gillard/Rudd and the rest of this most incompetent and ideologically corrupted rabble of a government.

  40. I picked 25th May because it’s the day before my birthday, and to hell with the cardiologist – I’m going to party like there’s no tomorrow…

  41. Gab

    Can’t recall who it was that said we should give September 14th a name, anyways here‘s an excellent suggestion.

  42. GerardB

    A good survey, I have done it several times

  43. Silver

    I am quite sure that the poll will not be in September but earlier because by announcing a date and then changing, Julia hopes to throw the opposition off their game. My guess is that she will call a snap election well before then (or rather Julia McTeirnan will – see Andrew Bolt).

    Suggestions for future polls:
    How many Greens will be relected?
    How many more resignations (as others have suggested)
    How many will resign for family reasons
    Give an option of all the tactics Gillard/McTeirnan are likely to use during the election (misogny has probably had its day – what will replace it?)
    What size vehicle will hold elected Greens and/or ALP members after the election

  44. GeorgeL

    Miranda Devine:

    Labor’s prospects are stinkier than durian in a Shanghai street market

  45. “a vindicated Craig Thomson”

    By whom? The fairies in the bottom of your garden?

  46. “I picked 25th May because it’s the day before my birthday, and to hell with the cardiologist – I’m going to party like there’s no tomorrow…”

    So you’re going to party like you won’t make your birthday??

  47. “(UPDATE: We plan to have a regular weekly survey. If you have suggestions for questions to poll, please leave them in the comments in this thread).”

    How about: What excuse will Julia use to renege on the election date? I can’t see an excuse big enough to improve on the loss of trust by getting caught out lying again.

  48. It should take a few hours/stubbies to get to toxic levels Beer Whisperer, so I should get to the opening hours by a small margin…

  49. Harold

    The Age puts a positive spin on a multitude of Labor lies.

    Top story, “More Than Meets The Eye”.

  50. Winnedge

    When will Craig Thomson reveal the mystery man who borrowed his credit card, mobile phone and driving licence and then put them back without Craig knowing.

    8 times!

    Will Slipper resign? When? If he needs the money he will have to do do soon or he will lose most of his pension and I somehow can’t see possibly employment avenues opening up for him. His hopes of being a full time priest aren’t looking very promising!

  51. Craig Mc

    Harold, if you want to see positive spin bleeding into hallucination, see this.

    via Tim Blair.

  52. Tintarella di Luna

    Harold, if you want to see positive spin bleeding into hallucination, see this.

    Craig I read that and now I think I have brain-damage – as well as Gillardiarrhea a new condition a friend told me about this morning. She’s had it for about 2 years now but says that anytime between now and September, 14 a cure will be found. That explains many things.

  53. Winston

    That’s a very strange questionnaire. The Prime Minister has already said that the election will be on 14th September. Surely that’s the end of that discussion? It’s not like there is some sort of track record of … oh I see.

  54. This is a great idea. And whoever gets the closest in any of the surveys gets to do a 400 word guest post.

  55. Gab

    Punishment by homework. Not liking that idea, Honey.

  56. James

    Why can I select both ‘yes’ and ‘no’ to the first question? Come on guys, radio buttons not check boxes!

  57. Dan

    Palladium doing very nicely. At the mo thinking a May peak, see what happens.

  58. Rousie

    New poll:
    Should Alice be rationed to a maximum of 5 comments per day?
    If not how many?

  59. Poida

    I guess I really don’t care if an election is called earlier. At very least I now have a date to count down the demise of this pack of clowns.
    As a firm believer in free markets, I feel competition leads to better outcomes. Alas based entirely on that thesis; I fear we may see only a slight improvement in governance (if any) when the Coalition take power. We may end up swapping incompetent big government socialists for competent big government conservatives. Both of which are bad outcomes.

    That being said I will definitely raise a glass on the 14th of September or whenever this ALP bunch are voted out.

  60. I fear we may see only a slight improvement in governance…

    hear hear. The spineless Libs think (maybe correctly) that to get enough votes they must appeal to as large a number of statist ninnies as the ALP. My heart sank when I heard Abbot talk all about how his government would mean X number of jobs.
    Just get out of our way guys.

  61. Jannie

    New poll:
    Should Alice be rationed to a maximum of 5 comments per day?
    If not how many?

    Yeah, ‘rationing’ sounds like the way to go. Its how they distribute scarce resources to the less heroic workers in the protected industrial paradise.

    5 a day seems heaps, but he should stand in a queue for an hour for each comment.

  62. Dr Faustus

    With Gillard doing a Caligula on her Caucus – “Let them hate me, as long as they fear me” – you’d think she was setting herself up to be hacked down in the Forum. But who would they replace her with? And for how long ?

    Certainly not ‘Mr Congeniality’ Rudd? Think of the footage in the Opposition attack ads – and imagine being forced into working for the smarmy little bastard, polishing his apple and pretending he tastes great.

    Anybody else would be an obvious caretaker and would require an almost immediate election.

    Julia has, rather pitifully, bribed the troops with the prospect of another six months on the public teat – providing they don’t rissole her in the meanwhile.

  63. .

    Yeah, ‘rationing’ sounds like the way to go. Its how they distribute scarce resources to the less heroic workers in the protected industrial paradise.

    5 a day seems heaps, but he should stand in a queue for an hour for each comment.

    Parasite, workers will be given nourishment as the dictates of new men and women can strive for under our glorious revolution!

  64. GeorgeL

    Perhaps the survey presentation could also provide cumulative results.

    For example (at the time of writing), of those who do not think the election will be held on 14 September about one third (33.1% – 22% of all respondents) think it will be on or before 4 May and about two thirds (68.4% – 45.4% of all respondents) think it will be on or before 29 June. Almost 12% (11.7% – 7.8% of all respondents) think it will be later than 14 September.

  65. Suey

    A week is a long time in politics, I’d like to change my choice of date, please.

  66. Chris M

    Why is this website down so much these days? Is it run by some Vodafone / Jetstar type ISP?

  67. Fleeced

    This thread doesn’t really have many comments, given its prominence. That could be indicative of the level of interest… IMO, it really doesn’t deserve to be a sticky-on-top thread – it clutters the site, and pushes down new stuff people are actually interested in.

    I get that you’re trying something new, and that you want to do a weekly survey – but perhaps you could have a link on the side linking to latest survey, rather than cluttering up the main feed?

    Just a suggestion – feel free to ignore it.

    A week is a long time in politics, I’d like to change my choice of date, please.

    LOL – we have a candidate question for Survey #2:

    No, really – when do you think the election will be held?

  68. Pingback: Catallaxy survey 2 (Thomson): responses close 15 February 2013 at Catallaxy Files

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