Budget update: December data

The government published its monthly update for December this afternoon. The gory details are here, but I have summarised the important bits below.

Year to date revenue is down more than spending and the deficit is huge. The MYEFO numbers are pure fiction.

(HT: Noodle)

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76 Responses to Budget update: December data

  1. Mk50 of Brisbane

    Oh God no.

    Six months ago my sources were whispering fearfully of a $14Bn deficit this FY when that useless knob-gobbling toothpick-dicked frog humping incompetent Swan was boasting about a $1Bn surplus.

    But it’s going to be much, much worse, isn’t it?

    What’s your guess, Sinc?

  2. Andrew

    Yikes, the budget has spiralled out of control more than I expected.

  3. .

    Let the sunlight in, so the bad things can be disinfected.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/what-labor-previously-said-on-the-surplus/story-fndo28a5-1226541295940

    Here is what Labor had previously promised:

    Treasurer Wayne Swan:
    “We’ll be back in the black by 2012/13, as promised.” (May 2011)

    “The government remains absolutely committed to delivering our return to surplus as we planned.” (August 2011)

    “We’ve nailed our colours to the mast.” (February 2012)

    “Despite the tough global conditions, we remain determined to return the budget to surplus in 2012/13, and we will get there.” (March 2012)

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard:

    “My commitment to a surplus in 2012/13 was a promise made and it will be honoured.” (April 2011)

    “We stand by the predictions, the entries in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. We stand by the figures and we’re on track to deliver a budget surplus.” (November 2012)

  4. jupes

    Here is what Labor had previously promised:

    Over 200 times.

    Yet the press will still treat these imbeciles as if they have something intelligent to say.

  5. RCon

    No need to worry, the surplus has already been delivered.

  6. Mk50 of Brisbane

    Just got a friend on the line from Finance. The whispers there are for a deficit of $30-35 Billion this FY if the lunatics continue running the asylum.

    I DO stress these are just rumours.

  7. tbh

    I can’t wait until the next question time. Swan’s economic reputation (if he ever had one) in tatters. For the love of all that is holy resign you stupid buffoon.

  8. Andrew Reynolds

    Meanwhile, the ABC actually did a good report on the failure of the mining tax and who is to blame. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCq4BOl8r4M

  9. Catfeesh?

    Now all we need is bennyg to come and tell us just how much better Woin is doing compared to Costello.

  10. .

    As Swan is a pop music lover, here is a tribute to his ineptitude and constant FAIL:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bC3ppyJgSk

    They really are like alcoholics who cannot admit they have a problem.

    Plus, they are like the Bourbons.

  11. Andrew

    He can’t really blame anyone else but himself. Waste and mismanagement, labor is thy name.

  12. tbh

    According to News, it’s $22B

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/budget-balance-at-2225bn-deficit-in-dec/story-e6frfku9-1226579037810

    The Australian government monthly financial statement released on Friday showed an underlying cash deficit of $22.252 billion to December, down from $17.962 billion in November.

    Even worse than Sinc predicted.

  13. Mk50 of Brisbane

    Trouble is, tbh that’s $22Bn for the six months to December!

  14. Infidel Tiger

    Maybe they can pass the hat around?

  15. .

    bennyg

    How much can you cough up?

  16. Bruce

    Simon Crean blames Tony Abbott:

    “We’re seeking to actually now change the design [of the mining tax] because of the way the states, without any criticism from Tony Abbott, have put up their taxes on mining and they themselves become a deduction under the agreement that we reached,” Mr Crean said.

    Do they think we’re so absolutely thick that we’d possibly believe this sewage?

  17. Mk50 of Brisbane

    heh.

    From an email just received from a contact in PM&C:

    “… In all my years I have never seen anything like this. … The Gillard government are filthy, vicious, dirty, disease-ridden, perverted, corrupt, ghastly, disgusting, mendacious, revolting, retarded, thuggish, loathesome, atrocious, abhorrent, awful, beastly, contemptible, accursed, deviant, repulsive, despicable, foul, grimy, hateful, inferior, cretinous, hellish, horrible, appalling. lousy, thieving, nauseating, obnoxious, odious, sleazy, offensive, micromanaging, repellent, reprehensible, arrogant, repugnant, kleptocratic, rotten, stinking, terrible, vile, wretched, incompetent, sociopathic, schizophrenic, worthless, pretentious, wretched, arrogantly cretinous unhinged societal parasites of the foullest kind. Now, let me elaborate each point with multiple examples…”

    It’s not a short email.

  18. Gab

    because of the way the states, without any criticism from Tony Abbott,

    At the time of the Great Mining Tax Design 2.0, all the states were Labor except WA. Crean has lost it, just like the rest of them. Fear does that to people.

  19. .

    Mk50

    You must somehow get them to go public.

  20. tbh

    Trouble is, tbh that’s $22Bn for the six months to December!

    Very troubling, yes. They are vandals.

  21. Bruce

    Gab – well its good news if Simon Crean (Hotham) is scared. Combet (Charlton) is on less than him. I would be very very pleased to see the back of my local MP the Minister for Silly Science.

  22. Mk50 of Brisbane

    No, dot. One protects one’s contacts!

  23. Gab

    I don’t think he’s scared about losing his seat, unfortunately he’s pretty safe. I meant Labor being turfed out and taking up opposition for however many years. Mind you, in between their internal scraps, jostling, and viciousness against all enemies including Rudd and the electorate, Labor seems very experienced in opposition role. They’ve been acting like the Libs are still in government when you listen to and Labor MP talk and blame Daddy Abbott for everything that’s gone up shit creek since they scraped their way into “government”.

  24. fiscal responsibility

    Just put a loan application in with some ‘forecasts’ for the bank manager. I want an overdraft to fund my investment. Told him that even though my income last year was 100k. I’m expecting to earn $1,800,000 because I’ve asked a lot of people for more work. He told me to get fucked..

    I just don’t get it. The gumment can provide ‘forecasts’ based on revenues that are basically made up, and on that basis borrow money… Why the $&@: can’t

  25. samuel j

    Don’t panic. MYEFO expects a Rudd revenue surge in Mar 🙂

  26. H B Bear

    Six years of amateur hour.

    Leaving net debt of $180-200bn these clowns will end up doing more long term damage than Whitlam.

  27. .

    Good point Mk 50 but I want nothing more than the Parliamentary Greens and ALP to be destroyed in the next election. Literally, decimation or better.

    I don’t think he’s scared about losing his seat, unfortunately he’s pretty safe. I meant Labor being turfed out and taking up opposition for however many years. Mind you, in between their internal scraps, jostling, and viciousness against all enemies including Rudd and the electorate, Labor seems very experienced in opposition role. They’ve been acting like the Libs are still in government when you listen to and Labor MP talk and blame Daddy Abbott for everything that’s gone up shit creek since they scraped their way into “government”.

    I said this before, this is starting to backfire.

    Abbot looks Presidential compared to that mob.

  28. Tom

    The whispers there are for a deficit of $30-35 Billion this FY if the lunatics continue running the asylum.

    So the Finance boffins are seriously telling you that the rate of haemorrhaging ($22 billion in the first half of ’12-’13) will slow by 50% in the second half? Give us a spell! In election-buying mode, the rate of deficit haemorrhaging in the second half will at least double. Full-year deficit will be a minimum of $50 billion. When the final Budget Outcome is reported, it’ll be something less than $60 billion for the full year.

  29. Mark

    because of the way the states, without any criticism from Tony Abbott,

    Yah well of course Crean would say that.

    As Abbott is the most effective politician in Australia and for all intents and purposes the PM elect the Premiers would at least listen to him.

    Probably would work actually. Good call Simon.

  30. Old Fridgie

    But haven’t you people heard of da global financial crisis…

  31. John A

    “Trouble is, tbh that’s $22Bn for the six months to December!”

    MK50, don’t forget the seasonal adjustment, because most of the revenue arrives in the second half.

    True some smoothing has occurred through the quarterly and monthly progressive payments system, but nevertheless, I would hope there would be some improvement in H2.

    What was the pattern last year and the year before?

  32. ar

    Swan – I didn’t abandon the surplus, the surplus abandoned me…

  33. Andrew

    So the Finance boffins are seriously telling you that the rate of haemorrhaging ($22 billion in the first half of ’12-’13) will slow by 50% in the second half? Give us a spell! In election-buying mode, the rate of deficit haemorrhaging in the second half will at least double. Full-year deficit will be a minimum of $50 billion. When the final Budget Outcome is reported, it’ll be something less than $60 billion for the full year.

    Won’t be $50-$60 billion. More like $30 billion. As others have said, the deficit will not blow out as much in the second half of the year as in the first half of the year.

  34. Rabz

    Mk50, that is gold. I’ve always maintained you can only do them justice with at least 30 adjectives or more!

    $22 billion for the first six months, eh?

    Looks like my prediction of at least $20 billion was correct, but that’s no sort of consolation.

    Be interesting to see what Costello’s post election forensic audit reveals.

    Also interesting to see that the MYEFO surplus estimate was $1.2 billion, given the goose had been bleating it would be $1.5 billion, down from $3 billion about a year ago.

    Seriously though, there are certain cretins who need to be given lengthy custodial sentences over this absolute effing shemozzle.

  35. sdfc

    But haven’t you people heard of da global financial crisis…

    You should thank your lucky stars you are able to laugh it off.

  36. Tim

    I’ve been saying for some time, Treasury has been faking the revenue figures. The ATO has a very good projection of revenue for the financial year ahead. For some reason, Treasury feel their fanciful numbers will fit better in the budget and the MYEFO. Hence the gap between what Swan thinks he can deliver and what he gets.

  37. sdfc

    I imagine Treasury make their forecasts based on their forecast for NGDP growth. Let’s face it economists are shit at forecasting.

  38. grumpy

    @ Tiger 7.38pm
    Combet has already tried that. In his latest email he has asked people to tip in $10 to fight for the carbon tax cause that naughty Mr Rabbit wants to abolish it.
    Check out Jo Nova for the gory details.

  39. Andrew

    Maybe Wayne Swan needs a new calculator? He does not know the difference between the + and – button.

  40. Johno

    As a comparison, the Victorian government plans to spend $48 billion in 2012-13. (see their Budget Update released in December) The Commonwealth’s deficit is roughly equal to all of the Victorian government’s spending.

  41. Rabz

    Let’s face it economists are shit at forecasting.

    An utterly absurd generalisation.

    As an economist, I was predicting years ago that the goose would never deliver a surplus.

    These criminal cretins have tried to pull every accounting swifty in the book (and off the books) and it’s still all turned to excrement.

    Anyone who thought otherwise isn’t an economist.

  42. Andrew

    Are we going to post some songs that reflect Swan’s failed surplus?

  43. Andrew

    Are we going to post some songs that reflect Swan’s failed surplus attempts?

  44. Rabz

    Are we going to post some songs that reflect Swan’s failed surplus?

    Let me get to work…

  45. sdfc

    What will NGDP growth be over the next four quarters Rabz?

  46. sdfc

    What will the cash rate be in 12 months time? CPI inflation? The Aussie? 10-year bond rate?

  47. Rabz

    What will NGDP growth be over the next four quarters Rabz?

    Why, do you think I own f*cking crystal ball, FFS?

    That’s not the issue here and you know it.

    Anyone who thought these lobotomised squandermonkeys would evah spend less than their legitimate incomings in any given twelve month period is a fucking imbecile.

    End of story.

  48. Rafe

    Sorry, That was a reply to sdfc at 9.13.

  49. sdfc

    An economist has to forecast NGDP growth if they are forecasting a budget balance obviously.

  50. lotocoti

    some songs …

    Time to sing along with Johnny Lydon.
    ?Promises, promises
    Old, tired, worn out, second hand sentences
    One thing, with you is certain
    You’re a really sad person
    So sad?

  51. Craig Mc

    Here’s one for you Andrew:

  52. Rafe

    There are serious limits with forecasting but you can predict that a government that spends like a drunken sailor and screws up a few other things will not balance the books.

  53. Tim

    The ATO knows – via the PAYG system – what business thinks it will be paying over the current financial year. Because business is allowed to adjust their projected payments down if they suspect their income will be lower. So at least on the downside, the ATO has what closely approximates to real-time data.

    Treasury apparently prefer to independently model to get their projections. For reasons best known to them. Maybe I go on too much about this, but I can’t see any interpretation of these facts that shouldn’t result in mass sackings at Treasury. The fact that they are farcically incompetent in the other areas I have come across them does nothing to lessen this view.

  54. sdfc

    Let’s face it Rabz we are all shit at forecasting.

  55. Rabz

    What will the cash rate be in 12 months time? CPI inflation? The Aussie? 10-year bond rate?

    sdfc, it all depends on what you are forecasting.

    I would never even claim to be able to forecast any of the rates above.

    Yet I was able to accurately forecast the following:

    – the goose would never deliver a surplus in any given financial year

    – the goose’s 2012-13 deficit would be at least $20 billion.

    BTW, I predicted the second as soon as he’d bleated he’d deliver a $3 billion surplus in the aforementioned financial year.

    Some forecasts are more equal than other forecasts, it appears.

  56. Old Fridgie

    You should thank your lucky stars you are able to laugh it off.

    No need to thank my lucky stars, we can all thank Wonderboy Woine Swarn for steering the goodship OZ through the GFC on a ship of cash made from the Howard/Costello surplus…

    Its just a shame the fuckwit steered the goodship OZ straight into a fucking iceberg of debt

  57. Andrew

    Here’s the first ‘Swan failed surplus song’

    Chain of Fools – Aretha Franklin

    Chain, chain, chain, Chain, chain, chain, Chain, chain, chain, Chain of fools


    For five long years, I thought you were my man, But I found out, I’m just a link in your chain

    You got me where you want me, I ain’t nothin’ but your fool, Ya treated me mean, Oh you treated me cruel

    (Chorus)

    Every chain, has got a weak link, I might be weak yeah, But I’ll give you strength, Oh, hey

    You told me to leave you alone, My father said, “Come on home”, My doctor said, “Take it easy”, Oh but your lovin’ is much too strong, I’m added to your

    (Chorus)

    One of these mornings, The chain is gonna break, But up until the day, I’m gonna take all I can take, oh hey

  58. sdfc

    The surplus didn’t have anything to do with it. The last tough budget Costello delivered was in the mid-90s

  59. Rabz

    Mass sackings.

    Starting in the ATO.

    treasury can wait – there are more commies in teh ATO, as we know.

    BTW, dot, my new boots arrived today.

    Happy happy, Joy joy.

  60. Mk50 of Brisbane

    No.

    There’s one song, and one song only that does justic to Swan.

    Zappa. F**k Yourself.

  61. eb

    Tax receipts will increase in the second half hey?

    One of our clients is finding the going a bit tough now and will be varying their tax instalments down to zero for the rest of the year. They are comparatively small ($1m varied down to zero) but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of companies do a similar thing.

    I think predicted a deficit of about $30b when the surplus was first budgetted last year, now it looks like it might be short of the mark!

  62. skeptic

    The whole bloody Treasury needs sacking.

  63. Rabz

    I think predicted a deficit of about $30b when the surplus was first budgetted last year, now it looks like it might be short of the mark!

    Pete – you could yet prove to be a better tax revenue forecaster than myself, Squire.

  64. Antipodean

    A song for you Andrew, cause they’re all fkn muppets

  65. I’m a silver lining sort of guy at least the underlying cash payments went down. Maybe it was just a monthly delay to make it look like they are making cuts but still saves a bit of interest.

    You should thank your lucky stars you are able to laugh it off.

    As one of the approximately 11.5 million taxpayers (I think it is an exageration but I will go with it) I am now lumbered with a debt of $14000, I am not laughing about this as I will have to pay this back as I am not about to die I hope and will be a taxpayer for the foreseeable future. I could have bought a new car with this money and have change.

  66. Munro

    The laughable thing about labor is that they are digging their own grave.

    No one is fooled by the carbon tax compensation. The tax brackets haven’t moved significantly for years, while inflation keeps prices going up. Everyone is at least $20 to $50 a week worse off just through bracket creep. $10/wk compensation is a joke.

    labor has alienated the actual working class. It will soon be a party used only by those on welfare and unionised government workers.

    All Abbott has to do is end the ridiculous inefficiency of the welfare system. Almost every family now collects family tax benefits through centre link that should just be part of payg. How many staff does the government assistance office have?

  67. What ever it takes

    Wayne Swan, the Captain Schettino of Australian Treasurers ,having driven the economy onto the rocks, jumps off with his multi million dollar superannuation lifeboat.

  68. My initial forecast when this mob of incompetent cretins got in was two terms and $300 Billion debt.
    Pretty close, I think.
    Total Commonwealth Government Securities on Issue – $260,386m consisting of:
    Treasury Bonds – $226,748
    Treasury Indexed Bonds – $17,119m
    Treasury Notes – $16,500m
    Other Securities – $19m
    As at 15 February 2013, updated weekly. Face value amounts rounded to the nearest million.
    Securities on issue subject to the limit under the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Act 1911 total $255,799 million.

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  70. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    Further to Winston Smith’s data above – they’ve borrowed an extra $40,015,000 per day this month. For what?

    Cumulative growth in debt since December 2010 has been 1.6% per month. The month to month debt has fallen, in 25 months, just 5 times – once by 4% and 4 times by less than 0.8%.

  71. brc

    If the muppets had any brains they would forecast on the lower side. That way when the numbers come in it gives you a buffer and if you do well it makes you look like a good administrator. Of course, having zero experience means that people like swan wouldn’t realize that writing things down on a piece of paper doesn’t actually make it so.

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