The government published its monthly update for December this afternoon. The gory details are here, but I have summarised the important bits below.
Year to date revenue is down more than spending and the deficit is huge. The MYEFO numbers are pure fiction.
(HT: Noodle)
Oh God no.
Six months ago my sources were whispering fearfully of a $14Bn deficit this FY when that useless knob-gobbling toothpick-dicked frog humping incompetent Swan was boasting about a $1Bn surplus.
But it’s going to be much, much worse, isn’t it?
What’s your guess, Sinc?
Mk50 of Brisbane
15 Feb 13 at 6:48 pm
$25 Billion?
Splatacrobat
15 Feb 13 at 6:55 pm
Yikes, the budget has spiralled out of control more than I expected.
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 6:57 pm
Let the sunlight in, so the bad things can be disinfected.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/what-labor-previously-said-on-the-surplus/story-fndo28a5-1226541295940
Here is what Labor had previously promised:
Treasurer Wayne Swan:
“We’ll be back in the black by 2012/13, as promised.” (May 2011)
“The government remains absolutely committed to delivering our return to surplus as we planned.” (August 2011)
“We’ve nailed our colours to the mast.” (February 2012)
“Despite the tough global conditions, we remain determined to return the budget to surplus in 2012/13, and we will get there.” (March 2012)
Prime Minister Julia Gillard:
“My commitment to a surplus in 2012/13 was a promise made and it will be honoured.” (April 2011)
“We stand by the predictions, the entries in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. We stand by the figures and we’re on track to deliver a budget surplus.” (November 2012)
.
15 Feb 13 at 7:03 pm
Over 200 times.
Yet the press will still treat these imbeciles as if they have something intelligent to say.
jupes
15 Feb 13 at 7:06 pm
No need to worry, the surplus has already been delivered.
RCon
15 Feb 13 at 7:22 pm
Just got a friend on the line from Finance. The whispers there are for a deficit of $30-35 Billion this FY if the lunatics continue running the asylum.
I DO stress these are just rumours.
Mk50 of Brisbane
15 Feb 13 at 7:25 pm
I can’t wait until the next question time. Swan’s economic reputation (if he ever had one) in tatters. For the love of all that is holy resign you stupid buffoon.
tbh
15 Feb 13 at 7:26 pm
Meanwhile, the ABC actually did a good report on the failure of the mining tax and who is to blame. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCq4BOl8r4M
Andrew Reynolds
15 Feb 13 at 7:32 pm
Now all we need is bennyg to come and tell us just how much better Woin is doing compared to Costello.
Catfeesh?
15 Feb 13 at 7:32 pm
As Swan is a pop music lover, here is a tribute to his ineptitude and constant FAIL:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bC3ppyJgSk
They really are like alcoholics who cannot admit they have a problem.
Plus, they are like the Bourbons.
.
15 Feb 13 at 7:33 pm
He can’t really blame anyone else but himself. Waste and mismanagement, labor is thy name.
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 7:34 pm
According to News, it’s $22B
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/budget-balance-at-2225bn-deficit-in-dec/story-e6frfku9-1226579037810
Even worse than Sinc predicted.
tbh
15 Feb 13 at 7:34 pm
Trouble is, tbh that’s $22Bn for the six months to December!
Mk50 of Brisbane
15 Feb 13 at 7:37 pm
Maybe they can pass the hat around?
Infidel Tiger
15 Feb 13 at 7:38 pm
bennyg
How much can you cough up?
.
15 Feb 13 at 7:39 pm
Simon Crean blames Tony Abbott:
Do they think we’re so absolutely thick that we’d possibly believe this sewage?
Bruce
15 Feb 13 at 7:51 pm
heh.
From an email just received from a contact in PM&C:
“… In all my years I have never seen anything like this. … The Gillard government are filthy, vicious, dirty, disease-ridden, perverted, corrupt, ghastly, disgusting, mendacious, revolting, retarded, thuggish, loathesome, atrocious, abhorrent, awful, beastly, contemptible, accursed, deviant, repulsive, despicable, foul, grimy, hateful, inferior, cretinous, hellish, horrible, appalling. lousy, thieving, nauseating, obnoxious, odious, sleazy, offensive, micromanaging, repellent, reprehensible, arrogant, repugnant, kleptocratic, rotten, stinking, terrible, vile, wretched, incompetent, sociopathic, schizophrenic, worthless, pretentious, wretched, arrogantly cretinous unhinged societal parasites of the foullest kind. Now, let me elaborate each point with multiple examples…”
It’s not a short email.
Mk50 of Brisbane
15 Feb 13 at 7:51 pm
At the time of the Great Mining Tax Design 2.0, all the states were Labor except WA. Crean has lost it, just like the rest of them. Fear does that to people.
Gab
15 Feb 13 at 7:59 pm
Mk50
You must somehow get them to go public.
.
15 Feb 13 at 7:59 pm
Very troubling, yes. They are vandals.
tbh
15 Feb 13 at 8:01 pm
Gab – well its good news if Simon Crean (Hotham) is scared. Combet (Charlton) is on less than him. I would be very very pleased to see the back of my local MP the Minister for Silly Science.
Bruce
15 Feb 13 at 8:05 pm
No, dot. One protects one’s contacts!
Mk50 of Brisbane
15 Feb 13 at 8:09 pm
I don’t think he’s scared about losing his seat, unfortunately he’s pretty safe. I meant Labor being turfed out and taking up opposition for however many years. Mind you, in between their internal scraps, jostling, and viciousness against all enemies including Rudd and the electorate, Labor seems very experienced in opposition role. They’ve been acting like the Libs are still in government when you listen to and Labor MP talk and blame Daddy Abbott for everything that’s gone up shit creek since they scraped their way into “government”.
Gab
15 Feb 13 at 8:12 pm
Just put a loan application in with some ‘forecasts’ for the bank manager. I want an overdraft to fund my investment. Told him that even though my income last year was 100k. I’m expecting to earn $1,800,000 because I’ve asked a lot of people for more work. He told me to get fucked..
I just don’t get it. The gumment can provide ‘forecasts’ based on revenues that are basically made up, and on that basis borrow money… Why the $&@: can’t
fiscal responsibility
15 Feb 13 at 8:16 pm
Don’t panic. MYEFO expects a Rudd revenue surge in Mar
samuel j
15 Feb 13 at 8:17 pm
Six years of amateur hour.
Leaving net debt of $180-200bn these clowns will end up doing more long term damage than Whitlam.
H B Bear
15 Feb 13 at 8:21 pm
Good point Mk 50 but I want nothing more than the Parliamentary Greens and ALP to be destroyed in the next election. Literally, decimation or better.
I said this before, this is starting to backfire.
Abbot looks Presidential compared to that mob.
.
15 Feb 13 at 8:23 pm
So the Finance boffins are seriously telling you that the rate of haemorrhaging ($22 billion in the first half of ’12-’13) will slow by 50% in the second half? Give us a spell! In election-buying mode, the rate of deficit haemorrhaging in the second half will at least double. Full-year deficit will be a minimum of $50 billion. When the final Budget Outcome is reported, it’ll be something less than $60 billion for the full year.
Tom
15 Feb 13 at 8:35 pm
Yah well of course Crean would say that.
As Abbott is the most effective politician in Australia and for all intents and purposes the PM elect the Premiers would at least listen to him.
Probably would work actually. Good call Simon.
Mark
15 Feb 13 at 8:37 pm
But haven’t you people heard of da global financial crisis…
Old Fridgie
15 Feb 13 at 8:39 pm
“Trouble is, tbh that’s $22Bn for the six months to December!”
MK50, don’t forget the seasonal adjustment, because most of the revenue arrives in the second half.
True some smoothing has occurred through the quarterly and monthly progressive payments system, but nevertheless, I would hope there would be some improvement in H2.
What was the pattern last year and the year before?
John A
15 Feb 13 at 8:43 pm
Swan – I didn’t abandon the surplus, the surplus abandoned me…
ar
15 Feb 13 at 8:46 pm
Won’t be $50-$60 billion. More like $30 billion. As others have said, the deficit will not blow out as much in the second half of the year as in the first half of the year.
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 8:58 pm
Mk50, that is gold. I’ve always maintained you can only do them justice with at least 30 adjectives or more!
$22 billion for the first six months, eh?
Looks like my prediction of at least $20 billion was correct, but that’s no sort of consolation.
Be interesting to see what Costello’s post election forensic audit reveals.
Also interesting to see that the MYEFO surplus estimate was $1.2 billion, given the goose had been bleating it would be $1.5 billion, down from $3 billion about a year ago.
Seriously though, there are certain cretins who need to be given lengthy custodial sentences over this absolute effing shemozzle.
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 9:09 pm
But haven’t you people heard of da global financial crisis…
You should thank your lucky stars you are able to laugh it off.
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 9:13 pm
I’ve been saying for some time, Treasury has been faking the revenue figures. The ATO has a very good projection of revenue for the financial year ahead. For some reason, Treasury feel their fanciful numbers will fit better in the budget and the MYEFO. Hence the gap between what Swan thinks he can deliver and what he gets.
Tim
15 Feb 13 at 9:14 pm
I imagine Treasury make their forecasts based on their forecast for NGDP growth. Let’s face it economists are shit at forecasting.
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 9:21 pm
@ Tiger 7.38pm
Combet has already tried that. In his latest email he has asked people to tip in $10 to fight for the carbon tax cause that naughty Mr Rabbit wants to abolish it.
Check out Jo Nova for the gory details.
grumpy
15 Feb 13 at 9:24 pm
Maybe Wayne Swan needs a new calculator? He does not know the difference between the + and – button.
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 9:33 pm
As a comparison, the Victorian government plans to spend $48 billion in 2012-13. (see their Budget Update released in December) The Commonwealth’s deficit is roughly equal to all of the Victorian government’s spending.
Johno
15 Feb 13 at 9:33 pm
An utterly absurd generalisation.
As an economist, I was predicting years ago that the goose would never deliver a surplus.
These criminal cretins have tried to pull every accounting swifty in the book (and off the books) and it’s still all turned to excrement.
Anyone who thought otherwise isn’t an economist.
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 9:48 pm
Are we going to post some songs that reflect Swan’s failed surplus?
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 9:49 pm
Are we going to post some songs that reflect Swan’s failed surplus attempts?
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 9:50 pm
Let me get to work…
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 9:53 pm
What will NGDP growth be over the next four quarters Rabz?
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 9:56 pm
What will the cash rate be in 12 months time? CPI inflation? The Aussie? 10-year bond rate?
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 9:57 pm
Why, do you think I own f*cking crystal ball, FFS?
That’s not the issue here and you know it.
Anyone who thought these lobotomised squandermonkeys would evah spend less than their legitimate incomings in any given twelve month period is a fucking imbecile.
End of story.
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 10:04 pm
No thank Costello.
Rafe
15 Feb 13 at 10:05 pm
Sorry, That was a reply to sdfc at 9.13.
Rafe
15 Feb 13 at 10:06 pm
An economist has to forecast NGDP growth if they are forecasting a budget balance obviously.
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 10:06 pm
Time to sing along with Johnny Lydon.
♫Promises, promises
Old, tired, worn out, second hand sentences
One thing, with you is certain
You’re a really sad person
So sad♫
lotocoti
15 Feb 13 at 10:06 pm
For what Rafe?
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 10:07 pm
Here’s one for you Andrew:
Craig Mc
15 Feb 13 at 10:09 pm
There are serious limits with forecasting but you can predict that a government that spends like a drunken sailor and screws up a few other things will not balance the books.
Rafe
15 Feb 13 at 10:09 pm
The ATO knows – via the PAYG system – what business thinks it will be paying over the current financial year. Because business is allowed to adjust their projected payments down if they suspect their income will be lower. So at least on the downside, the ATO has what closely approximates to real-time data.
Treasury apparently prefer to independently model to get their projections. For reasons best known to them. Maybe I go on too much about this, but I can’t see any interpretation of these facts that shouldn’t result in mass sackings at Treasury. The fact that they are farcically incompetent in the other areas I have come across them does nothing to lessen this view.
Tim
15 Feb 13 at 10:10 pm
Let’s face it Rabz we are all shit at forecasting.
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 10:11 pm
sdfc, it all depends on what you are forecasting.
I would never even claim to be able to forecast any of the rates above.
Yet I was able to accurately forecast the following:
- the goose would never deliver a surplus in any given financial year
- the goose’s 2012-13 deficit would be at least $20 billion.
BTW, I predicted the second as soon as he’d bleated he’d deliver a $3 billion surplus in the aforementioned financial year.
Some forecasts are more equal than other forecasts, it appears.
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 10:13 pm
No need to thank my lucky stars, we can all thank Wonderboy Woine Swarn for steering the goodship OZ through the GFC on a ship of cash made from the Howard/Costello surplus…
Its just a shame the fuckwit steered the goodship OZ straight into a fucking iceberg of debt
Old Fridgie
15 Feb 13 at 10:13 pm
Here’s the first ‘Swan failed surplus song’
Chain of Fools – Aretha Franklin
Chain, chain, chain, Chain, chain, chain, Chain, chain, chain, Chain of fools
For five long years, I thought you were my man, But I found out, I’m just a link in your chain
You got me where you want me, I ain’t nothin’ but your fool, Ya treated me mean, Oh you treated me cruel
(Chorus)
Every chain, has got a weak link, I might be weak yeah, But I’ll give you strength, Oh, hey
You told me to leave you alone, My father said, “Come on home”, My doctor said, “Take it easy”, Oh but your lovin’ is much too strong, I’m added to your
(Chorus)
One of these mornings, The chain is gonna break, But up until the day, I’m gonna take all I can take, oh hey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGAiW5dOnKo
Andrew
15 Feb 13 at 10:14 pm
The surplus didn’t have anything to do with it. The last tough budget Costello delivered was in the mid-90s
sdfc
15 Feb 13 at 10:17 pm
Mass sackings.
.
15 Feb 13 at 10:23 pm
Starting in the ATO.
treasury can wait – there are more commies in teh ATO, as we know.
BTW, dot, my new boots arrived today.
Happy happy, Joy joy.
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 10:26 pm
No.
There’s one song, and one song only that does justic to Swan.
Zappa. F**k Yourself.
Mk50 of Brisbane
15 Feb 13 at 10:31 pm
Tax receipts will increase in the second half hey?
One of our clients is finding the going a bit tough now and will be varying their tax instalments down to zero for the rest of the year. They are comparatively small ($1m varied down to zero) but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of companies do a similar thing.
I think predicted a deficit of about $30b when the surplus was first budgetted last year, now it looks like it might be short of the mark!
eb
15 Feb 13 at 10:36 pm
The whole bloody Treasury needs sacking.
skeptic
15 Feb 13 at 10:47 pm
Pete – you could yet prove to be a better tax revenue forecaster than myself, Squire.
Rabz
15 Feb 13 at 11:31 pm
A song for you Andrew, cause they’re all fkn muppets
Antipodean
16 Feb 13 at 12:11 am
I’m a silver lining sort of guy at least the underlying cash payments went down. Maybe it was just a monthly delay to make it look like they are making cuts but still saves a bit of interest.
As one of the approximately 11.5 million taxpayers (I think it is an exageration but I will go with it) I am now lumbered with a debt of $14000, I am not laughing about this as I will have to pay this back as I am not about to die I hope and will be a taxpayer for the foreseeable future. I could have bought a new car with this money and have change.
kelly liddle
16 Feb 13 at 3:32 am
The laughable thing about labor is that they are digging their own grave.
No one is fooled by the carbon tax compensation. The tax brackets haven’t moved significantly for years, while inflation keeps prices going up. Everyone is at least $20 to $50 a week worse off just through bracket creep. $10/wk compensation is a joke.
labor has alienated the actual working class. It will soon be a party used only by those on welfare and unionised government workers.
All Abbott has to do is end the ridiculous inefficiency of the welfare system. Almost every family now collects family tax benefits through centre link that should just be part of payg. How many staff does the government assistance office have?
Munro
16 Feb 13 at 10:00 am
Wayne Swan, the Captain Schettino of Australian Treasurers ,having driven the economy onto the rocks, jumps off with his multi million dollar superannuation lifeboat.
What ever it takes
16 Feb 13 at 10:01 am
My initial forecast when this mob of incompetent cretins got in was two terms and $300 Billion debt.
Pretty close, I think.
Total Commonwealth Government Securities on Issue – $260,386m consisting of:
Treasury Bonds – $226,748
Treasury Indexed Bonds – $17,119m
Treasury Notes – $16,500m
Other Securities – $19m
As at 15 February 2013, updated weekly. Face value amounts rounded to the nearest million.
Securities on issue subject to the limit under the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Act 1911 total $255,799 million.
Winston SMITH
16 Feb 13 at 11:07 am
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Further to Winston Smith’s data above – they’ve borrowed an extra $40,015,000 per day this month. For what?
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Mick Gold Coast QLD
16 Feb 13 at 11:38 am
If the muppets had any brains they would forecast on the lower side. That way when the numbers come in it gives you a buffer and if you do well it makes you look like a good administrator. Of course, having zero experience means that people like swan wouldn’t realize that writing things down on a piece of paper doesn’t actually make it so.
brc
16 Feb 13 at 3:00 pm
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