Mark Baker in The Age:
It’s time, Labor. Time to end the delusion that Julia Gillard and her battle-scarred camp followers have any chance of political resurrection. Kevin Rudd might well be a very naughty boy, but Labor has no choice but to test whether he still has the makings of a messiah.
It is the only card this discredited, demoralised and dysfunctional government has left to play.
The caucus and union hatchet men who toppled Rudd in June 2009 need to polish their knuckledusters and head back to the prime ministerial suite. Gillard needs to be told that her time is up and she must resign the leadership for the greater good. Rudd needs to be reinstated by unanimous accord and his first act back on the throne must be to call an immediate election.
Alan Stokes in the SMH:
So with utmost respect, allow me to spell it out for you, as one pride-riven, deeply weakened individual to a far less flawed one.
Julia Gillard, it is time for you to make your graceful, dignified, humble, selfless exit from the prime ministership.
Stay and it’s harder for those who love you to save the furniture and protect your legacy.
Stay and you will hurt more.
Forget Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott. This is about you.
Forget the loss of face. Life’s too short.
Centrebet has Rudd at $1.70 to lead the ALP to next election and Gillard at $2.25.
Sportsbet has Rudd at $2.00 to lead the ALP to next election and Gillard at $1.75.
Calling a general election now would mean that the House of Representatives would go to an election, but not the Senate. A separate Senate election would have to be held some time between August this year and June next year. That would be very risky for the ALP and Greens as that would allow the Coalition to campaign twice on the carbon tax.
I’m not convinced that returning to Rudd would be wise either. Yes the government are in a world of pain, and of their own making, but how would Rudd fix that?
What can he do to fix the carbon tax in six months?
What can he do to fix the mining tax in six months?
What can he do to fix the boat arrivals in six months?
What can he do to fix the debt and deficit in six months?
More importantly who in the ALP caucus will serve in his ministry when half the current ministry have to resign or face public ridicule justifying their anti-Rudd comments from just last year?
The other alternative proposed by Dennis Shanahan is that just Swan goes:
Another option is for Swan to resign as Treasurer, try to take the odium of the mining tax failure and budget deficit with him and put Shorten as a fresh face in Treasury. This can happen only on Swan’s initiative and seems unlikely.
The Bill Hayden option – but I can think of no reason why Shorten would want to share the blame for Swan’s mismanagement of the budget, nor any reason why he should.