I think claims that MPs such as Shorten won’t take the Prime Ministership if available are wildly misplaced. He can never be sure an opportunity will ever be presented again, and Labor could be in opposition for a very long time. Apart from Tony Abbott, very few opposition leaders manage to last long.
So why wouldn’t he take the opportunity if presented? After all, even if Labor loses the election, he stands to benefit in many ways:
- an office and staff for the rest of his life
- Comcar facilities for the rest of his life
- Gold card travel for the rest of his life with a much higher entitlement than retired ministers
- higher superannuation for the rest of his life
- being a member of that exclusive club of former prime ministers (invitations to all sorts of events etc).
Even one day as prime minister gives these benefits.
I could understand Rudd being reluctant to take the position back if he waits too long as he already has achieved the above benefits and can leave with the impression that he could have saved Labor from the defeat (and who could prove otherwise?).
But for Shorten, Combet and the other names, there is only upside to taking the job.
Shorten will challenge no doubt about it but it won’t be for the perks (he got plenty of those from the unions). He will challenge because he believes he can save the party from oblivion.
“I entered politics to make a difference”?
Sirocco, I am sure even TLS entered politics for the right reasons, i.e. making a difference, but the power and the perks is very tempting.
I’ll eat crow if Shorten picks up the pieces now. The polls show that it is Rudd the people want. What’s going to happen if Shorten takes away that little that the polls want and tantamount to stabs Rudd in the back again.
He’ll lose bigger than Gillard and then he’ll own that and be will NEVER get another look in as everyone (on the left at least) will pile on and blame him for the loss…
Rudd never needed money, he just needed the attention.
A messiah complex is often a sign of mental illness…
If I was Shorten I’d challenge.
Opportunities to become Prime Minister are very rare.
Even if you lose the party room ballot, you establish yourself as the natural successor post-election if and when Rudd goes down.
The polls in the caucus show that they don’t want Rudd. They don’t like Gillard, but that does not translate into votes for Rudd. He is insane to work with.
Rudd is playing the long game. At the end of the next term of government in 2016, he will still be only 59 years of age. Even if he has to wait until 2019, he will still be only 62. He hates the current rabble as much as we do. If the Coalition stumbles in the next 3-6 years, he knows he will be a walkup start to return in triumph, having remade the ALP in his own image without the Sussex Street neanderthals.
I think it’s rather shallow to make this all about money.
There’s career aspirations and satisfaction,and wanting to make a positive difference to Australia.
If it’s just about money that’s the last person one would vote for.
Abbott could use the NSW precedent and say that because he was not elected by the people, he gets none of it.
Whenever I am polled, I give Rudd as the preferred option – hoping the stupid buggers in caucus will elect him.
If Sponge Bob Short Pants became PM wouldn’t mummy have to resign as GG? There’s no way the Duchess of Ilfracombe would countenance that. It won’t happen.
If there’s one thing there’s no shortage of in the parliamentary ALP, it’s venal careerists. Someone will take the gig.
I’d be furious at my parents and avoid chocolate factories.
Andrew, get a grip. The Lying Slapper (call her for what she is) has never done a thing in her life that was not a direct benefit for herself. I was brought up by one exactly the same.
This nonchalant manner that we are discussing people challenging for the highest honour in Australia says two things:
a) What a pack of bastards these Labor politicians are. They are so hungry for success.
b) How dysfunctional Labor is.
You really think she didn’t want to help other people going into politics?
Craig Mc, at 10.37 – are you sure that there is no shortage of “venal careerists” in the Parliamentary A.L.P.?
I could have sworn they were all VENEREAL careerists.
A pox on ALL their houses!
One thing about Short Willy – he has ALWAYS been a happily married man.
It was only ever his wives (and occasionally his mothers-in-law) who were displeased!
As the A.L.P.’s “Minister for Employment of his Relation in the Workplace”, he currently has his dear old mother-in-law tucked away in a nice, modest little granny-flat called “Yarralumla”. He really does believe in sucking up to the old bird. Do you reckon he might have an ulterior motive?
They’ve changed the rules? It used to be that you only got the car and office if you had been PM for two years.
He was elected too late for the crazy superannuation benefits. Howard changed the rules because Latham was promising to, if elected. The benefits are still generous by most standards, but no longer provide a generous income for life for anyone turfed out after two terms regardless of age. The extra between PM and cabinet minister for a few months at Shorten’s age wouldn’t be worth the trouble.
And because you’ve got everything else wrong, I’m inclined to doubt the gold card travel entitlement too.
The chalice from the palace has the brew that is true.
Shorten has no idea who he needs to poison. They should just do a Jonestown and all drink from the same cup and do us all a favour.
Leftists get into politics motivated by who they can hurt, standover and graft from.
Everything that is in plain view makes logical sense for Shorten to take over, I dont think a challenge would be required given big Bill pulls his and Gillards strings, he may not get another chance. So it is going to happen but not yet or there is something else not in plain sight. AWU slush fund is getting hotter maybe that needs a fall guy and a clean up before little Billy can step up.
So for a good question – who are the senior ALP figures not implicated in the AWU scandal, and on more than an 8-10% margin?
The qualifying period is one year as Prime Minister, isn’t it?
in any horse race, bet on naked self interest – it usually comes first. “making a difference is merely a figleaf of hypocritical self delusion
Septimus there is no qualifying period for the PM. 1/2 days would qualify for all of these benefits except the gold card. For the latter you are right about a 1 year qualifying period, but the time served a pm does count triple for acquiring the gold card. Same as for the GG.
Wayne Swan is doing the numbers for Gillard In cacus, he has Gillard safe with 91votes out of 101 with Rudd the remaining 82 votes.
Remember this; the Coalition ‘forms government’, however the Labor rabble ‘takes power’. Those two terms explains the mindset of the two political ideologies graphically.
Samuel J – thanks for the clarification.
I still reckon that the A.L.P.’s best bet for a successor to Juliar is Tony “the Man” Mundine.
He has the necessary intellect; the humility; the compassion; the modesty; and he DOESN’T have the fraud squads from 3 States chasing him for fraud, embezzlement, perjury, misprision of felony, etc., etc.
He could even spin a dollar or three by doing debt collection work after hours, for A.L.P. part-owner, “Honest Eddie” Obeid.
If shorten does end up as PM in the next few months (unelected, of course, now there’s a surprise) his career in politics is finished.
He would be faced with leading labor to an absolute slaughter and then in all likelihood either resign as leader or be punted post election.
As much as I despise the the grasping, odious sleazebag, even he is not stupid enough to accept the poison chalice – which would be to lead labor to its greatest ever thrashing in a feral election.
Who would want to be a labor MP after the election anyway? Then there’s the small matter of guilt by association – shorten has been a high profile minister in the worst ‘government’ in this country’s history.
If labor are to be ever re-elected after a relatively short period in the wilderness (at least three terms?), then so called generational change is a given. That’s if labor even survive as a polidical pardee, which I think could be touch and go.
I certainly hope that doesn’t mean we end up facing the prospect of a pigster howes prime ministership down the track. It’s too hideous a concept to even contemplate…
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Do believe you are spot on the money speaking of which one dollar at Sportsbet buys you thirteen that Labor will win between 31 and 40 seats. or if you prefer, it will buy you eight that they will win more than 80…..
@Rabz:
I think you underestimate the average ALP/union hack. Even as an Opposition MP, there are plenty of perks and the salary is a lot better than any of them could command in the real world.
Hence there would be no shortage of candidates.
John,
They are fair points – I was thinking more of the incumbents who are left standing post election.
You can see how attractive the prospect was to that vile harridan roxon and that moron evans, for example.
Are you sure about those extra benefits? I understood that someone had to hold the office of Prime Minister for a period of 12 months to qualify.
Now that Lazarus with a triple bypass has shown how many times it is possible to rise from the dead, there is at least a chance that one of the younger possibilities such as Shorten or Combet will have a go. They may figure that even if they lose the election, there is still a chance that they will get a second go if they stick around long enough. There is also the Menzies example as well, of course.
Mother I don’t think it is a “triple by pass” more “self immolation”, you don’t come back from that. But it’s better than having to work so they may still have a crack
I think their best strategy is to stick with gillard, but dump swan. Changing to Rudd means they buy back the problem of having to get rid of him again. I’m sure plenty in the caucus believe that he will be extremely vengeful if given the job again.
If shorten is thinking of running then I wouldn’t be surprised if he is waiting for the budget. That was Swan gets the brickbats and Gillard gets the final weakening. They’ve promised so much and are so exposed on revenue that it must be a nightmare to contemplate.
Rabz – love your work.
It seems to me that Rudd is not really interested in regaining the Prime Ministership. Instead, I think all his public posturing is designed to de-stabilise Gillard and Swan and to bring down all those who did the dirty on him. He knows the government will be thrown out by the voters no matter what and he intends to make the its demise as painful as possible. It is payback, pure and simple, and he is revelling in it.
“i entered politics to make a difference”(to my financial status and future financial security)”i will strive to improve the lot of the wurker” ( particularly this wurker called me )’”i beleive all wurkers are equal( but Im more equal than them)”i will work for the greater benefit of the country( estate I will retire to on my massive pension and benefits)”vote for me and trust me ” ( you stupid peasants)