Noodle emails to say that Rudd is favourite to lead the ALP to the next federal election again. Centrebet has him equal with Gillard at $1.90 each while Sportsbet has him at $1.85 to Gillard’s $2.00.
This must reflect the events of the WA election this weekend. But was what happened really ‘new’ information? The Barnett government was expected to return – except Darren Brown, but in fairness to him at least he had a good story to back up his prediction.
What is new information is that people have been happy to sheet home responsibility to Gillard’s policies.
Another thing that I thought quite interesting was Stephen Smith talking about swings and roundabouts during the Saturday night coverage. He said something along the lines that the ALP was able to form government at the federal level with only three seats from WA. I interpreted that as him saying that WA doesn’t really matter at a federal level. At least it doesn’t really matter to the ALP. I hope the footage of that statement reappears in election advertising come September.
Hmmm,no opportunity to place a wager on Malcolm Turnbull,he’d have to be a better longshot chance than any of those quoted at $41 or more.
Lew
11 Mar 13 at 12:12 pm
Double figure swings against Labor within the Federal seat of Perth. Are the lights about to be turned out on the Glimmer Twins? The Goose can’t rely on Green preferences again if they aren’t there to begin with.
Gary Gray has obviously decided it’s all over for him and has gone into Comical Ali mode.
H B Bear
11 Mar 13 at 12:48 pm
I will return to Labor (whom do they represent) when they put nice Mr Smith as their leader.
NoFixedAddress
11 Mar 13 at 12:53 pm
Do you mean Steven Smith, the ineffectual Defence Minister? He’d be an inferior version of Rudd, wouldn’t he?
And wouldn’t Rudd reborn be a lousy idea for Labor- since all the current Cabinet would be chucked out?
Nuke Gray
11 Mar 13 at 12:56 pm
Instructive to look at the two books. Both books are 81% made at Shorten. The rest are ‘novelty bets’ – which you can tell by the widely different odds/starters. There won’t be much money on these; would you invest on Swan at any odds?
The weight of money has gone pretty much equally to Gillard and Rudd, with the GG’s boy providing the over-round (the bookies’ built-in profit margin). Considering Gillard has the incumbency, this is a colossal vote of no confidence in the PM/ALP rather than a narrow margin between favourites.
Dr Faustus
11 Mar 13 at 1:13 pm
[(Steven Smith) = Rudd light] = Howard light. Any lighter they will blow away. Now thats an idea. Steven Smith for PM.
johninoxley
11 Mar 13 at 1:17 pm
Big time. In addition to shuffling the deckchairs, the Rudd Redux Government would need to rework 3 years of Gillard/Swan’s dud policy making and stare down the AWU.
In about 3 months. While pretending that Gillard’s was a Good-Government-Gone-Wrong.
It would be the ultimate Clown Circus – which is probably why it appeals to the inveterate turd-polishers in the parliamentary ALP.
Dr Faustus
11 Mar 13 at 1:48 pm
What beats me is which Australian would be betting on whom is the next ‘leader’ of some anti-Australian organization called the ‘Australian Labor Party’ because they are not even Australian!
NoFixedAddress
11 Mar 13 at 1:56 pm
Is Sniff to be Labor’s Kevin Andrews-like leadership challenger?
JamesK
11 Mar 13 at 2:15 pm
What was that?
He managed to get his name mentioned all over the shop for a prediction which he won’t be held accountable for in the remote chance he was right (and would be made as he is celebrated as a sage).
Token
11 Mar 13 at 2:18 pm
Has Smith had a falling out with his fellow “glimmer twin” Goose?
If Smith acts to support Rudd in any way Goose will be cooked.
Token
11 Mar 13 at 2:19 pm
Hey, Dr Faustus at 1.13 P.M., are you seriously saying that Short Willy, the unsuccessful meat-pie acquirer, is really there “to provide the bookies’ built-in profit margin”?
“Big Bill” Ludwig won’t be happy to hear that!
He put Short Willy in that job to provide the Ludwig family with THEIR “built-in profit margin”.
Up The Workers!
11 Mar 13 at 2:58 pm
The Ides of March approach – we will have a new Prime Minister and a new Pope.
Samuel J
11 Mar 13 at 6:14 pm
Samuel,
She’s superglued to the PM’s seat. The Slapper would have to be melted outta there in order to get her out.
JC
11 Mar 13 at 6:16 pm
Noooooooo. I want the current one to stay. don’t want a new or a recycled PM before the election.
Gab
11 Mar 13 at 6:16 pm
Yep, she’ll have to be dragged out of there kicking and screaming. I keep coming back to Grace Collier’s article in the AFR last year about people like her and the fact that they won’t ever admit fault or culpability.
I also don’t want her to be able to scream sexism when she’s turfed out of office. I want the voters to have done it in a landslide.
tbh
11 Mar 13 at 6:18 pm
UTW: The weight of money seems to say that Wee Willy is one step away from being meat pie filler – like Simple Simon, Greatest Treasurer, WanCarr or BiPolar. However, the bookies go to bed praying for the lad to get up.
In September, assuming the race runs to form, the money taken on Leaky Slapper will pay the bets on Mr Rude (or vice versa) leaving the book with the bets laid on the AWU gelding by his connections – plus the loose change on the rest.
Of course, if both favourites are scratched, or break down and Wee Willy comes home at a canter, it’s payola for Centrebet and Sportsbet.
Dr Faustus
11 Mar 13 at 6:19 pm
JC – they take the PM and her seat and throw her out. A new seat will be purchased. After all, who would want to sit in her seat?
Samuel J
11 Mar 13 at 7:47 pm
They won’t move unless poll coming out tonight is a disaster. I suspect it won’t be.
Andrew
11 Mar 13 at 9:00 pm
I also don’t want her to be able to scream sexism when she’s turfed out of office. I want the voters to have done it in a landslide.
Yes and no. If the Party turfs her, the Party wears the blame. If the electorate does it, it wears the blame and we will have to listen to the whiny feminists squawking about the innate sexism of Australian society for another couple of generations. So yeah, kick Gillard in the head at the polls, but then block your ears and stay off the internet until the screaming subsides.
Rudd coming back as self-perceived saviour of the Labor Party and then being slammed to the floor by Abbott would in some ways be much more satisfying to watch.
perturbed
11 Mar 13 at 10:55 pm