While Centrebet now has Rudd at 1.95 (and Gillard at 1.85) to be prime minister at the next election, the election for the Pope will commence when Conclave forms at 16:30 (Rome time = 2:30 am, Wed 13 Mar EADT). Centrebet has Cardinal Scola (of Milan) as favorite at 3.00 followed by Scherer of Brazil at 4.00. Cardinal George Pell of Australia is at 26.0. There is a saying that
he who enters the conclave a pope exits as a cardinal.
For those with an interest in Latin, I’ve attached some Vatican documents on the Conclave. There will be one vote taken in the first day of Conclave, then 4 in each following day.
With the Ides of March on Friday, perhaps we will have a new Pope and a new Prime Minister.
Further information may be found at this interesting interactive video.
With Conclave literally shut off from the world, this might be one of the few chances for a fair bet. There is no chance for the electors to influence the betting market). It will be interesting to observe how the odds change as Conclave progresses. If there isn’t an elected Pope in (say) three days, it would indicate a stalemate and perhaps a greater likelihood for a less known candidate.