Catallaxy Files

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Conclave 2013

50 comments

While Centrebet now has Rudd at 1.95 (and Gillard at 1.85) to be prime minister at the next election, the election for the Pope will commence when Conclave forms at 16:30 (Rome time = 2:30 am, Wed 13 Mar EADT). Centrebet has Cardinal Scola (of Milan) as favorite at 3.00 followed by Scherer of Brazil at 4.00. Cardinal George Pell of Australia is at 26.0. There is a saying that

he who enters the conclave a pope exits as a cardinal.

For those with an interest in Latin, I’ve attached some Vatican documents on the Conclave. There will be one vote taken in the first day of Conclave, then 4 in each following day.

With the Ides of March on Friday, perhaps we will have a new Pope and a new Prime Minister.

Further information may be found at this interesting interactive video.

For the latest Centrebet Papal market

Entrance to Conclave

Conclave Mass

UPDATE

With Conclave literally shut off from the world, this might be one of the few chances for a fair bet. There is no chance for the electors to influence the betting market). It will be interesting to observe how the odds change as Conclave progresses. If there isn’t an elected Pope in (say) three days, it would indicate a stalemate and perhaps a greater likelihood for a less known candidate.

Written by Samuel J

March 12th, 2013 at 7:51 pm

Posted in International,SJ

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50 Responses to 'Conclave 2013'

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  1. http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4872/

    Not sure if things could get much worse for the Labor Party with these figures!

    Aaron

    12 Mar 13 at 8:01 pm

  2. is it still bread and water in the conclave

    Jim Rose

    12 Mar 13 at 8:31 pm

  3. Jim – I’m not sure. But if the ALP used just bread and water they would never have selected Latham, Rudd and Gillard.

    Samuel J

    12 Mar 13 at 8:37 pm

  4. see Order in the church: A property rights approach by Douglas W Allen 1995 Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

    notes that the catholic church is the oldest on-going firm in the world

    Jim Rose

    12 Mar 13 at 8:37 pm

  5. all worth reading
    1. Sacred Trust: The Medieval Church as an Economic Firm with R. Ekelund, R. Hebert, G. Anderson, and A. Davis 1996.

    2. Robert B. Ekelund Jr. & Robert F. Hebert & Robert D. Tollison, 2008. “The Marketplace of Christianity,” (discusses the reformation, counter-reformation and thereafter)

    3. Economic Origins of Roman Christianity by Robert B. Ekelund Jr., Robert D. Tollison 2011 (the 1st 1000 years)

    Jim Rose

    12 Mar 13 at 8:44 pm

  6. see http://econpapers.repec.org/article/blakyklos/v_3a40_3ay_3a1987_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a399-413.htm for The Pope and the Price of Meat: A Public Choice Perspective by Richard Ault, Robert Ekelund and Robert D. Tollison

    shows how self-interest, economic geography, and an expanded number of third-world voters in the College of Cardinals explain why Pope Paul IV changed the relative price of meat and altered penance rules in 1966.

    other papers discuss the pope and the price of fish, leather and wine! the composition of the college of cardinals counts

    Jim Rose

    12 Mar 13 at 8:53 pm

  7. Is “EDST” supposed to mean “Eastern Daylight Saving Time”?

    If so then the abbrev. is “EADT” for Eastern Australian Daylight Time :/ (and later on we will revert to “EAST” Eastern Australian Standard Time).

    John A

    12 Mar 13 at 8:57 pm

  8. Thanks Jim for the references.

    John A – yes, I will make the change thanks.

    Samuel J

    12 Mar 13 at 8:59 pm

  9. notes that the catholic church is the oldest on-going firm in the world

    Not as old as ALP powerbrokers inc. CEO Bill Ludwig was doing deals with Caiaphas and Pilate when Jesus played fullback for Jeruselum.

    Splatacrobat

    12 Mar 13 at 9:05 pm

  10. Nicola Roxon has called on the Catholic Church to ban white smoke custom, saying it encourages cigarette usage.

    C.L.

    12 Mar 13 at 9:33 pm

  11. Live coverage from FOX:

    http://www.foxnews.com/live-coverage/selecting-new-pope

    C.L.

    12 Mar 13 at 9:34 pm

  12. Jim. It is NOT bread and water! Only dumb journos from Fairfax say that.

    Lysander spooner

    12 Mar 13 at 9:37 pm

  13. … Not suggesting you’re in that category!!

    Lysander spooner

    12 Mar 13 at 9:39 pm

  14. see http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/11/18-year-old-pope-three-year-election-quirky-facts-about-papal-conclaves/

    LONGEST CONCLAVE: In 1268 — 33 months to be exact. this was the conclave restricted to bread and water by the end

    The oldest popes were Pope Celestine III (elected 1191) and Celestine V (elected 1294) who were both nearly 85. Pope John XII was 18 when elected in 955.

    Jim Rose

    12 Mar 13 at 9:55 pm

  15. 10 worst popes at http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1981842_1981844_1981623,00.html

    Jim Rose

    12 Mar 13 at 9:56 pm

  16. Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines is known to ride his pushbike around to visit parishioners and be a humble chap. Only around 56 or 57 so probably too young.

    candy

    12 Mar 13 at 10:06 pm

  17. CL
    says
    “Nicola Roxon has called on the Catholic Church to ban white smoke custom, saying it encourages cigarette usage.”

    You are a card!

    How about Jenny Macklin?

    She said she could live on the donations bowl.

    Aliice

    12 Mar 13 at 10:09 pm

  18. LONGEST CONCLAVE: In 1268 — 33 months to be exact. this was the conclave restricted to bread and water by the end

    The introduction of bread and water to hasten a decision was the church’s version of the golden point rule.

    Splatacrobat

    12 Mar 13 at 10:09 pm

  19. Lech Wałęsa and JPII annoyed the KGB. With KGB Putin in power will new Pope be another annoyance?

    stackja

    12 Mar 13 at 10:15 pm

  20. “Nicola Roxon has called on the Catholic Church to ban white smoke custom, saying it encourages cigarette usage.”

    No it’s okay CL they are allowed to pollute because the Vatican purchased carbon credits from a tree farm in Tassie. So all is good!

    Splatacrobat

    12 Mar 13 at 10:15 pm

  21. Jim, I’m not sure what Pius XII is doing in that list given the facts of the matter.

    dover_beach

    12 Mar 13 at 10:21 pm


  22. 10 worst popes

    , funny the article is entitled “Top 10 Controversial Popes”. Careful Jim, your slip is showing.

    Gab

    12 Mar 13 at 10:25 pm

  23. Yes, Pius XII was a great man who saved tens of thousands of Jews during WW2. Benedict XVI was right to promote him to Venerable in 2009.

    Samuel J

    12 Mar 13 at 10:51 pm

  24. Who gives a fuck? It’ll just be another apologist for kiddy-fiddling

    Dexter Rous

    12 Mar 13 at 11:27 pm

  25. Nicola Roxon has called on the Catholic Church to ban white smoke custom, saying it encourages cigarette usage.

    Lol, I spat my coffee at the screen laughing

    nic

    13 Mar 13 at 12:10 am

  26. Jim… That conclave was restricted to bread and water to MAKE THEM make a a final decision once and for all. Was the only time. The Vatican released a press statement today on inaccuracies particularly in the Aussie media… One of which was a Fairfax report on bread and water which was patently false and about 850 years out of date.

    Lysander spooner

    13 Mar 13 at 12:25 am

  27. Dexter, u r full of shit.

    Lysander spooner

    13 Mar 13 at 12:27 am

  28. And u r not worthy of another

    Lysander spooner

    13 Mar 13 at 12:27 am

  29. While leadership change is one means by which disgraced institutions can seek to cleanse themselves of the odour that attaches to their brand, the problem for the Catholics is that the procession of old men in frocks currently engaging in secret acts, behind closed doors, does nothing to distract onlooker’s attentions from the source of the tykes’ problems.

    William Bragg

    13 Mar 13 at 12:39 am

  30. LOL.

    C.L.

    13 Mar 13 at 1:00 am

  31. Indeed, Samuel.

    Pius XII was one of the greatest ever popes.

    C.L.

    13 Mar 13 at 1:02 am

  32. Just had a bet on George Pell at 360/1 via Betfair. Worth a small wager at those odds.

    St Hubbins

    13 Mar 13 at 11:46 am

  33. I can’t place a bet on Fernando Filoni. He’s not listed in any of the markets I’ve seen.

    Ivan Denisovich

    13 Mar 13 at 11:58 am

  34. He’s not listed on Betfair, that’s for sure. Maybe a late scratching?

    I can’t place a bet on Fernando Filoni. He’s not listed in any of the markets I’ve seen.

    Ivan Denisovich

    13 Mar 13 at 11:58 am

    St Hubbins

    13 Mar 13 at 2:51 pm

  35. Most people forget that the 58 year old Karol Woytyla was an unknown “no chancer” against some biggies!

    He came out JPII (and worthy of a JPIII, JPIV & V)

    Lysander Spooner

    13 Mar 13 at 3:06 pm

  36. …and yes CL and Samuel; many lefties and “Valkerie types” (aka “ignorami”) do not realise the valuable work that Pius XII did for the Hebrews (I think he even has a place in Yad Vashem? “The place of righteousness” witht the likes of Oscar Schindler?)

    Lysander Spooner

    13 Mar 13 at 3:12 pm

  37. Not only did they only give them bread and water, but eventually they removed the roof of the building!

    To resolve prolonged deadlocks in the earlier years of papal elections, local authorities often resorted to the forced seclusion of the cardinal electors, such as that first adopted by the city of Rome in 1241, and possibly before that by Perugia in 1216.[55] In 1269, when the forced seclusion of the cardinals alone failed to produce a pope, the city of Viterbo refused to send in any materials except bread and water. When even this failed to produce a result, the townspeople removed the roof of the Palazzo dei Papi in their attempt to speed up the election.[56]

    Chris

    13 Mar 13 at 5:18 pm

  38. Pius XII was a great man who saved tens of thousands of Jews

    Like many neutral powers in Europe, the Vatican had a fine diplomat at its head that played every card he had to survive Hitler.

    The Swedes exported iron and coal to keep out of the war. The Irish helped the British a lot especially after they started winning. Benes was the most cunning man in Europe.

    When MacArthur left the Philippines, he told the Pinoy politicians left behind to deal with the invading Japanese to do whatever they have to do to survive, but if they swore allegiance to the emperor, he would hang them when he returned.

    Jim Rose

    13 Mar 13 at 5:36 pm

  39. Get a clue, Jim.

    Gordon Thomas, a Protestant, was given access to previously unpublished Vatican documents and tracked down victims, priests and others who had not told their stories before.

    The Pope’s Jews. . . details how Pius gave his blessing to the establishment of safe houses in the Vatican and Europe’s convents and monasteries. He oversaw a secret operation with code names and fake documents for priests who risked their lives to shelter Jews, some of whom were even made Vatican subjects.

    Thomas shows, for example, that priests were instructed to issue baptism certificates to hundreds of Jews hidden in Genoa, Rome and elsewhere in Italy. More than 2,000 Jews in Hungary were given fabricated Vatican documents identifying them as Catholics and a network saved German Jews by bringing them to Rome. The pope appointed a priest with extensive funds with which to provide food, clothing and medicine. More than 4,000 Jews were hidden in convents and monasteries across Italy.

    During and immediately after the war, the pope was considered a Jewish saviour. Jewish leaders – such as Jerusalem’s chief rabbi in 1944 – said the people of Israel would never forget what he and his delegates “are doing for our unfortunate brothers and sisters at the most tragic hour”. Jewish newspapers in Britain and America echoed that praise, and Hitler branded him “a Jew lover”.

    However, his image turned sour in the 1960s, thanks to Soviet antagonism towards the Vatican and a German play by Rolf Hochhuth, The Deputy, which vilified the pope, accusing him of silence and inaction over the Jews. It was a trend that intensified with the publication of Hitler’s Pope, a book by John Cornwell.

    However, as the Vatican’s secretary of state before the war, the future pope contributed to the damning 1937 encyclical of Pius XI, With Burning Anxiety, and, as Pius XII he made condemnatory speeches that were widely interpreted at the time – including by Jewish leaders and newspapers – as clear condemnations of Hitler’s racial policies. Due to the Vatican’s traditionally diplomatic language, the accusation that Pius XII did not speak out has festered.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/09/hitlers-pope-pius-xii-holocaust?CMP=twt_fd

    Gab

    13 Mar 13 at 5:40 pm

  40. That’s all very interesting, Jim , but you haven’t explained how the Vatican was just like Sweden or Ireland.

    dover_beach

    13 Mar 13 at 5:47 pm

  41. ok, he was not a fine diplomat

    Jim Rose

    13 Mar 13 at 5:49 pm

  42. Oh, I understand, he was ‘controversial’ or ‘worse’ than other Pope’s in being a fine diplomat.

    dover_beach

    13 Mar 13 at 6:01 pm

  43. Popes

    dover_beach

    13 Mar 13 at 6:02 pm

  44. Pius XII has long been vilified as “Hitler’s pope”, accused of failing publicly to condemn the genocide of Europe’s Jews

    He would have been a fool to have publicly to condemn the genocide against the Jews during the second world war.

    Pius XII would have invited violent retaliation for no purpose. The Vatican already knew that there would be a proper accounting after the war

    On 17 Dec 1942, the Allies issued a proclamation condemning the extermination of the Jews in Europe and declared that they would punish the perpetrators.

    as for why the Vatican had not made the material available until now, hard to say.

    Jim Rose

    13 Mar 13 at 6:33 pm

  45. d-b, you never said anything to me about the Egardo Mortara case with Pius IX.

    steve from brisbane

    13 Mar 13 at 6:35 pm

  46. You asked: It’s getting too easy to become “Blessed”, don’t you think?

    No. But so far as that case is concerned, I would prefer that he wasn’t separated from his parents.

    dover_beach

    13 Mar 13 at 8:23 pm

  47. Edgardo Mortara became a distinguished and very happy priest.

    Olden days laws are awful to our eyes but it’s humbug to regard this as any more noteworthy in the Mortara case than it is now – with scores of Aboriginal children being ‘kidnapped’ from their parents by the Gillard government.

    C.L.

    13 Mar 13 at 8:36 pm

  48. “Being a lover of freedom, when the revolution came in Germany, I looked to the universities to defend it, knowing that they had always boasted of their devotion to the cause of truth; but no, the universities immediately were silenced. Then, I looked to the great editors of the newspapers, whose flaming editorials in days gone by had proclaimed their love of freedom; but they like the universities were silenced in a few short weeks… Only the Church stood squarely across the path of Hitler’s campaign for suppressing truth. I never had any special interest in the Church before, but now I feel a great affection and admiration because the Church alone had had the courage and intellectual truth and moral freedom. I am forced to confess that what I had once despised I now praise unreservedly.”

    - Albert Einstein, Time, 1940.

    C.L.

    13 Mar 13 at 8:41 pm

  49. I love the fact that whenever someone says “the Church” we all know we are not talking about proddies

    Tal

    13 Mar 13 at 8:45 pm

  50. It’s a good point, Tal.

    Protestantism is essentially dead.

    And that’s big news, really.

    One of the epochal stand-offs of the millennium has been decided.

    The Catholic Church won.

    C.L.

    13 Mar 13 at 9:33 pm

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