An emerging budget strategy?

We all know the tricks of the trade – fly a few kites to see the likely reaction; bang on about not being able to talk about buget announcements while announcing lots of thing before the budget; and selectively leaking in the week or two before the big night.  (I can hardly wait :))

So are we seeing the beginning of an emerging budget strategy with the pre-release of all the nasties, leaving the big night for A POSITIVE VISION FOR THE FUTURE BASED ON SCHOOL EDUCATION AND DISABILITY SUPPORT.  This has started with the significant cuts to university spending but expect more.

No doubt, Swan will continue to drone on about how much revenue has been ‘written off’ since the GFC – complete tosh, by the way – but there were some interesting figures released publicly on late Friday afternoon.

The monthly statements dropped out at 4.20pm on Friday show that for the year to February Labor has actually raised $15.8 billion more in revenue compared to the same period last year – an increase of 7.2 per cent.

Despite this, the financial statements show, a deterioration in the underlying cash balance of $5.7 billion compared to the Mid Year Economic Fiscal Outlook released just five months ago.

The budget to February is currently in deficit to the tune of $23.6 billion compared to the $17.9 billion deficit estimate in MYEFO.

It just goes to show us how ludicrous the revenue projections were in the 2012 Budget – there really are a lot of gullible (aka sympathetic) journalists around.  A revenue increase of over 7 per cent is actually very good, particularly given how low inflation is, but we still not get anywhere near a budget surplus this financial year.  No ifs, not buts about it.

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15 Responses to An emerging budget strategy?

  1. sabrina

    Quick and good analysis of the monthly statement. Sad but true is the statement “emerging budget strategy with the pre-release of all the nasties, leaving the big night”. Thanks Judith.
    Having said that, some nasties are required – removing some of the welfare identified by Joe Hockey last year.

  2. sabrina

    Reducing some of the politicians entitlements will be very good. I doubt that will happen though, as underhanded by-partisan support exists on this matter.

  3. NoFixedAddress

    @Judith

    It just goes to show us how ludicrous the revenue projections were in the 2012 Budget – there really are a lot of gullible (aka sympathetic) journalists APS around.

  4. Richard D

    Is the Treasury dragged kicking & screaming into making these sorts of delusional forecasts or are they fellow travellers? (sorry I am not really sure how independent they can be)

    If it is the later then the most important thing the coalition needs to do when it wins govt is to take to Treasury with a rather large broom otherwise they are wasting their time.

  5. NoFixedAddress

    treasury, ato, dfat, the senate, …..

  6. Dan

    That last link is absolutely insane. I hope they are government funded, so we can stop funding them

  7. .

    The usual suspects prattle on in the comments “frontline services are public services”

    Sure pal. We’ll just get mining to pay more than their highest tax rate by sector, on top of their NEGATIVE effective rate of protection, and mining investment will not stop and there will be so many coppers there will be no crime, so many nurses no one will get sick etc and every child will have an iPad with a 1000 Mb/s connection thanks to uncle Steven.

    It’s actually a small error to call Australian mining as having comparative advantage. We have an endowment set that is favourable. Although lefties want to attack a sector that seems to have comparative advantage – which is nuts – in reality we are not much more favourable than Africa.

    The global reserves of minerals far exceed short term consumption.

  8. Brett

    It is clothed in economic speak, but the budget strategy is basically deceit.

  9. trax

    A revenue increase of over 7 per cent is actually very good

    I would hardly call that good for the taxpayers who have had to pay the extra 7%. Government revenue should be renamed as economy damaging cash grab.
    Even with all their accounting tricks and they are still going to have a big deficit.

  10. Judith,

    The ALPBC 7:00am news lead with this Gonski funding, leaving the bit about it conditional on the States kicking in a bit more ( where is Tas getting that?)

    I also the new superannuation camaign advert about the lift from 9 to 12% mandatory contribution leaves out the bit about who is actually paying it. And for Paul Howes information, it won’t be the employer no matter how often you say it is.

  11. Borisgodunov

    Borissuggests the following cuts to help balance the budget!
    1.reduce PS and pollies pay by 60percent?
    2. Stop all foreign aid and payments to the untidy nayshuns.
    3. Put all retired pollies and PS people on means tested OAPensions..
    4. Cut all funding to quangos ,legal aid “refugee” appeals etc
    5.cut all funding to unions and political parties.
    6. Tax all excessive sponsorship of sports heavily.
    7. Withdraw from u.n. repeal all u.n. instigated laws and green rubbish.
    8.stop all payments to “refugees” put them in labour camps to work for their keep their “advocates ” and lawyers can join them .

  12. Borisgodunov

    Sorry Gnasher,this Bloody Mob have so many Bludgers in tow,I was saving them for chapters 2 to 10 of ” The Book Of GilLIARd Liebor Filth” ,a comprehensive guide for Sewage Inspectors !

  13. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    McTernan has obviously told them to go in hard with ‘selling’ Gonski. So they have proceded to sell, with a lead flash on their ABC, a great big bucket of money, because that is all that it is. Gonski just says pour money into schools, and there is no accountability for outcomes from this pouring.

    It is also an invisible bucket. You can’t see it anywhere. No-one knows where to find it. And a third of it has already leaked out so extra funds will have to come from the States to fulfil the utopia.

    It’s like the NBN. A thought bubble of immensely costly proportions. Money Gonski is about right.

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