Revenue shortfall

I wrote earlier about the government’s ‘revenue shortfall’ and its appalling forecasting skills. Its wage increase – ie tax revenues – did not increase as much as expected.

Andrew Bolt has outlined the three ‘data points’, namely

  • Wayne Swan on 21 April about a revenue shortfall of $7.5 billion
  • Julia Gillard on 28 April about a revenue shortfall of $12 billion
  • Penny Wong on 7 May about a revenue shortfall of $17 billion.

Andrew asks

And next week?

Well here is a linear regression of those three data points projected to election day, 14 September, where the revenue shortfall will be approaching $95 billion. Let’s hope that this trend doesn’t keep running.

revenueshortfall

 

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38 Responses to Revenue shortfall

  1. Bazza

    I somehow think your next blue dot will sit above the 20,000 line

  2. Talleyrand

    Let’s open a book on what we think the budget deficit of the Federal Government Thieves will be.

    A linear regression ain’t gonna cut it, only a full chaotic system description will come close to coverage of the topology; with a strange attractors localised to Eddie Obeid’s office and Sussex Street.

  3. manalive

    Samuel J you wouldn’t by any chance be a climate scientist?

  4. Samuel J

    Manalive – climate scientist? Wash your mouth out! Although I do know the methods they use.

  5. Pizzaskase

    Samuel J please be the prophet and draw the dot of where Bullseye Swann will finish? Just for the laughter of it all.

  6. Pizzaskase

    Manalive, Samuel J may not be, but Martin Parkinson,the current Treasury Secretary and the person who signs off on the numbers, was previously the first Secretary to the Dept of Climate Change.

    Fantasy land continues in spades.

  7. Samuel J

    Pizzaskase, I expect the ‘revenue shortfall’ that is announced in the Budget will be about $22 billion. I expect that this will be further down at the Final Budget Outcome (perhaps $45 billion). We’ll see.

  8. Carpe Jugulum, HenchCritter VRWC, Mighty Thews Inspector

    Let’s open a book on what we think the budget deficit of the Federal Government Thieves will be.

    Put me down for $32 Bilion.

  9. mct

    Is that the one they announce, or the one discovered when some honest people get hold of the actual numbers?

  10. Robbo

    Gillard, Swan and Wong are running the finances of this country. Be scared, be very scared.

  11. papachango

    I said a while ago that $20B was likely… might revise that upwards now as they slash and burn.

    I saw a graph a while ago on Coalition Vs Labor budget outcomes.. was a compelling story in its own right.

    Could we have another one for forecasting performance over the years?

    e.g. for each year – who was in government, what they set in the budget, what the mid year forecast was and what the actual outcome was.

    This stuff happens in the provate sector too, and it would be fascinating to compare the performance of the headless chooks with that of a typical publicly listed company.

  12. Duncan

    christ.. I hope it doesn’t follow climate science. It’ll be exponential, not linear.

  13. Anthony Millman

    I don’t know what all of you economists are worrying about. Swan informed us this afternoon that the 25 bp interest rate reduction shows just how strong our economy is and how wonderful everything is for those with home mortgages.

  14. Greg James

    Let’s open a book on what we think the budget deficit of the Federal Government Thieves will be.

    Put me down for $32 Bilion.

    Well, Wayne is talking $7B, and TLS is talking $12B [not that either of them would have a clue what either of those figures even means], and that Wong chap is talking $17B, so my bet is to take the worst of these [from the Wong chap] and add 50%.

    My bet therefore, is $25.5B.

  15. sfw

    The way the do the books is dodgy. In real terms I reckon 90 billion is achievable. You have to admit that GILLARD and her crew are determined, hard working people who can achieve things that nobody thought is possible.

  16. Leigh Lowe

    They should just borrow the Royal Children’s Hospital telethon tally board.
    “Let’s cross to Penny in the tally room.”
    “Thanks Wayne. Well, the 4 o’clock total is ………. “

  17. candy

    Headless chooks is not far wrong.

  18. JC

    SFW

    No ome’s here said those lowerent political trolls like the Liars party can’t be hard working.

    the lying slapper and C..t Conroy have worked very hard this year at fucking everything up. Devilishly hard.

    In fact the Slapper came out of the starting gate at the beginning of the year working really hard fucking up one thing after another. They’re very determined.

  19. sfw

    jc, I agree. They are inventive, hard working and dedicated. The problem is they’re wrong about everything. Everything they touch turns to shit.

  20. JC

    oops No one here’s saying….

    —–

    Yes of course, SFW… and bloody hard working…

    I’ve never in my life witnessed a more hard working, dedicated bunch of losers in my life.

  21. Mark

    Headline will be $26 billion.

    When all the bullshit is sorted and the games are exposed the real deficit will be around $40 billion.

    They will disappear $14 billion odd by spending $1 this year and $500 million next year on the same scheme….usual ducks and drakes.

    If it wasn’t so serious IO would be laughing my arse off at these reprobates and liars.

  22. JC

    I tell you what Mark.

    Senior Treasury people who have helped them hide the stuff ought to be charged with fraud.

  23. Leigh Lowe

    The vicious bitch has given up any hope of winning but is determined to plant budgetary landmines for Tony.
    Never mind that we will have to pay for her budgetary suicide bomber act.

  24. Leigh Lowe

    JC …. agreed.
    Starting with that total dullard Martin Parkinson.

  25. JC

    Can you imagine what’s going on in the senior ranks of the APS at the moment…. especially Treasury

    The incessant calls to HR wanting to know the exit payout entitlements and the super. The HR line must be running red hot.

    The Libs need to warn the seniors that if they find any, even one iota of any hanky panky their entitlements will be imperiled through legislation.

    Then watch the rats deserting the sinking ship. They’ll be ratting on the Slapper, Shane wand and sundry like crazy.

  26. cynical1

    Around about 5bil per week.

    Serious dough by Sept…..

    And these bastards walk away with an indexed pension for life.

  27. Megan

    And these bastards walk away with an indexed pension for life.

    This is the one point that enrages me every single time I see another spectacular screw up from this unbelievably inept, incompetent, brain dead bunch of mongrel losers.

    Lately, you can measure the screw up rate using your watch rather than a calendar.

  28. Leigh Lowe

    THE government has fallen about $1 billion short of the $3bn revenue windfall it had hoped to reap from the sale of valuable wireless spectrum to the nation’s leading telecoms companies.

    Ummm ….. was that the same spectrum that Sooky Milk Boy Conroy bragged that he would have the bidders wearing red underpants on their heads to get the rights to the spectrum?

  29. Megan – Let me add my frustration and anger to the fact that these bastards will walk away, after screwing the country and attempting to reduce us to almost Grecian levels, with an indexed pension for life. And not indexed to the CPI, but to the earnings of their successors. Infuriating mind numbing anger.

  30. Econocrat

    You can tell their enthusiasm has evaporated and their massaging has evolved as—no doubt—they’ve received the latest “forecasts” from Treasury.

    This is when the real bat-shit crazy decisions are made: Wayne Swan writes to the Prime Minister and gets policy approval for a “Hunting licence”. (Yes, seriously that what they call it.) This is basically a list of fucked-up ideas that were thrown out of the budget process last year, or have only just been thought of. Then they pick a few to increase the revenue to make the already Treasury-fudged revenue estimates look less shit.

  31. Econocrat

    Oh, I suspect $45-$50 billion deficit forecast, overshot by about another $25 billion on the budget outcome.

  32. Megan

    Sirocco, if only there was some way to tell them that they spent all the money and their lovely fat pension won’t be paid until the debt they’ve run up has been paid off. One can dream. It’s an antidote to the blood boiling fury.

  33. I repeat my initial forecast when this mob of dodos first got in – Two terms and $300 Billion in debt.
    My problem is that I’m an optimist.

  34. cynical1

    “Unbelievably inept, incompetent, brain dead bunch of mongrel losers”.

    Harsh.

    But fair….

  35. PEB

    I think that Gillard has done the country a great service. She has consigned the ALP to the opposition benches for a very long time – and that can only be good for the country!

  36. John Mc

    I wonder if there’s ever a time when Gillard and her cronies are in the ‘pardy’ room and look at each other and go “well, I suppose we were pretty sh*t and didn’t do much but borrow on the public ledger, it’s probably no wonder the public didn’t buy it”.

  37. Gab

    No, that would require self-awareness and introspection, John and as gillard said on Monday night, “I am not someone given to self-doubt”.

  38. Maws

    add the $7 Billion, $12 Billion & $17 Billion together then double it
    $72 Billion

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