The fix is in – Gillard’s going to go

Reading across the papers today and watching my one bit of weekly television the virtual certainty that Gillard will be replaced by Rudd before the next election seems evident. The issue is not the virtual certainty that she will be replaced but when.

Even now, within the hundred days, there is still too much time for the rest of us to remember the kind of PM Rudd had actually been and why so many of us were pleased to see him go. In a policy sense, everything that is wrong with Gillard Rudd has as well but with an apparently poisonous personality that makes him anathema to his colleagues. That many of them had decided their preference to go down with the current captain in charge was only a vague distress call pointing to just how awful working with Rudd must actually be.

And while this far from the election the disastrous polling numbers talk of a rout, there are four considerations.

First, the Coalition does not in any way act as if it’s a lay down. They’re the ones who do the polling and they’re the ones in the focus groups. That they have not, for example, come out against either of the referenda makes me think there is a real trap in them for the Coalition. They do not exude any kind of confidence which may just be prudence but it may also reflect a real sense of their own vulnerabilities.

Second, there will be a switch in sentiment the moment the PM, whoever it is, goes to visit the Governor General. Polling results for the moment are mid-term stuff that reflect only a vague dissatisfaction for many. We will only know what the actual situation is when we are inside the real polling period. Most of the social and professional environments I travel in still talk of “the Mad monk” and almost none of these people would consider voting Coalition under any circumstances. These people make me very nervous as they must do the Coalition as well.

Third, if I read the papers right, it is only until the end of the Parliamentary sitting that the transition supposedly can occur. My memory, however, goes back to 1983 when the Hawke-for-Hayden switch came as Malcolm Fraser was off visiting the Governor-General. The less time there is for the Coalition to switch its campaign strategy to Rudd and away from Gillard, the more difficult it will be to mount a proper campaign.

Fourth, if the election is some kind of blow out but the Coalition does not capture the Senate, then nothing of significance can be changed. A double dissolution twelve months later would therefore take place after at least one Coaltion budget in which “austerity” will be the central issue. And this is not austerity as a notional idea but one in which very specific groups of people will have been affected. Meanwhile, the Coalition will have fixed the boat people issue to the extent that it can be fixed. The ALP will therefore be able to campaign with a better budget outcome and with the boats having been stopped assuming they can be.

Following from all that, even if one assumes that Tony Abbott will win the mandatory two elections, they will occur within four years and not six. Meanwhile, the ALP will have “rejuvinated” itself so that by the 2017 election they will not be all that far from government. Their strategy looking forward to 2017 (or 2019) has been relatively evident. Create as many problems for a Coaltion government as possible and then spend the years in Opposition criticising the various attempts to fix the problems the ALP had created.

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164 Responses to The fix is in – Gillard’s going to go

  1. val majkus

    Rudd didn’t have the guts to challenge last time and look at what happened to his supporters as a result
    On the other hand with his hubris that wouldn’t matter to him
    But he certainly seems to be hated by his party, whether they could stomach him … don’t know
    But for me, he’s finished, Gillard is finished
    Come back Simon Crean!

  2. Nick

    All during an economic collapse. They should do it easy!

  3. ar

    Is their intention to win the election or just to save the beanbags?

    While Labor MPs desperate to save their seat might be willing to turn to Rudd for the duration of election campaign, would they be prepared to cop him as PM again?

    Will the media even ask?

  4. Tintarella di Luna

    OMG I can’ t look, I just can’t. This analysis is a brick in the face that’s for sure. Thanks Steve for a very ugly picture.
    I am so sick to think that this cabal of shysters will come back in any form. I think I need to visit the fridge. I’d shed my Gillarditis over the last few month, now I’ll be piling all back on again.

  5. Fisky

    The Coalition must put together all of the statements of Labor MPs attacking Rudd into an easy-to-access kit, both visual (on Youtube), and in a written pamphlett. There is so much material out there.

  6. val majkus

    You think something’s going to be great and you just can’t wait to get it!
    Okay I know I linked it on the open forum but couldn’t resist

  7. Johno

    Labor will NOT change to Rudd.

    (1) The supposed benefits of switching Rudd are unlikely to be realised. The polls look good now, but if they make him Leader, the Opposition will be reminding everyone how crap he was as PM before. In the end, they may not win the few extra seats they think they can win on the current polls.

    (2) His colleagues know how bad he is as Leader. They don’t want him as their longer term Leader. Better to put someone in after the election, than having to get rid of him again after election.

    (3) ALP powerbrokers – don’t control Rudd. They want a puppet, not an independent Leader.

  8. Andrew

    A Rudd return does worry me. He is a very popular politician. Labor are getting desperate so they will go back to Rudd, even if that means backing an egomaniac in who is crazy.

  9. val majkus

    all the lemon ads are here

  10. JC

    Who would work with Rudd? The front bench would leave en masse.

  11. val majkus

    Don’t forget Jo Hockey’s question of the day

  12. Jim Rose

    Rudd didn’t have the guts to challenge last time

    a Gillard suppotor should do a Cean and demand that he challenge. Rudd will not take the thicker to risk defeat in a challenge so close to an election.

    Rudd wan’t to be crowned unopposed.

  13. Andrew

    Who would work with Rudd? The front bench would leave en masse.

    They will if it means keeping their jobs.

  14. Johno

    Opps. That last line should read

    (3) ALP powerbrokers – union bosses – don’t control Rudd. They want a puppet, not an independent Leader.

  15. Toiling Mass

    I just noticed that Rudd has a column in The Australian today. SUpposedly about the Chinese and the US, although I can’t bring myself to read it – crap like “You know waht? Relations between nations can be caliginous and crypto-aetiologically fraught, folks.”

    But he is posing again.

  16. Jim Rose

    if the whispers are right, Gillard will call another leadership ballot on a few hours notice.

    would Rudd have the ticker to stand?

  17. Tintarella di Luna

    “You know waht? Relations between nations can be caliginous and crypto-aetiologically fraught, folks.”

    He’s so full of programmatic specificity you’d swear he was a cunning little linguist.

  18. Aliice

    I think Sinc is right to be nervous of Abbott. Yes there is the perception he is the mad monk and today a newspaper piece about him attempting to king hit one in his uni days (as well as all the catholoic stuff about abortions) then there is workchoices etc

    I would be nervous as well…however when you get someone sensible in the Coalition who makes a clean sweep of the electorate…..all some people do here is complain. I wouldnt mind seeing someone like BOF at federal level ie a sensible no nonsense conservative who comes across like an ordinary guy (not someone with post Howard reputation for being an attack dog – much moderated now I notice – but still there is an underlying suspician when it comes to Abbott when it comes to appealing to the majority).

    No point in not admitting it. The PMs position is as much about personality as political direction. There is a bit of questionable stuff with Abott.

  19. Aliice

    Simon Crean is too old to come back and was a ditherer the first time he made a go opf it…

  20. Alfonso

    “…fixed the boat people issue to the extent that it can be fixed.”
    There is only one way to stop the boats.
    The Indonesian and Malaysian govts must be confronted at the pain of a destroyed relationship with Australia and cease allowing visa free entry from the 3rd world.
    As we speak visa’s are handed out when illegal boat customers arrive by airline in Indonesia and Malaysia. It’s almost as if this policy is deliberate passive aggressive harassment of Australia.

    All that is required are mandatory pre entry visas policed at airline check in for Indonesia and Malaysia. Just like when we fly to the US. Then the illegals are finished.

    Tourists and business travellers have return tickets, passports and credit cards.
    Australia can direct its massive aid to I & M to finance visa processing in countries of origin, when the word gets out the illegals won’t waste their time.

    Easy peecy, fixed.

  21. val majkus

    would Rudd have the ticker to stand?

    no he wants to be recruited – the saviour … should we get him a white or black donkey

  22. Labor will NOT change to Rudd.

    I am inclined to agree, and for all the same reasons as Johno. I think it’s too late.

    Also, I think the cowardly little bastard will once again take us to the caucus room door, and then bottle at the last minute, having hung a few more Labor frontbenchers out to dry – if anyone’s stupid enough to fall for that trick again.

    PS Tony Abbott is clearly behind this. It has his greasy garlic-smelling Catholic fingerprints all over it. He’s probably gadding about the country in a Kevin Rudd mask as we speak, pressing the flesh and promising little old ladies that he’ll come and do their ironing if they vote for him.

  23. Aliice

    It wouldnt surprise me if labor changed to someone before the election. Gillard must be feeling the knives poking her in the back. Either that or they (fed alp) are all government change denialists…

  24. From Dennis Shanahan today in the Aus:

    Although Labor figures deny the formal shift they confirm Victorian MPs are now in a state of panic.

    Polling in Fairfax Media today suggests Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus would lose his Melbourne seat under Ms Gillard, confirming similar polling in News Limited newspapers last week.

    You know what? It would have been nice to see some of that panic happening as a response to the dire state of the Gillard government, the constant policy shifts with an eye to the 24 hour media cycle, the pink batts debacle, the constant loss of life in the illegal immigrant industry, the carbon tax backflip, the mining tax that didn’t raise any money, the deficit that can be seen from space, et cetera.

    But no. Instead, they’re panicking because they might lose their seats. Heavens to Murgatroyd. Have the defibrillators on stand-by.

    If anyone needed any further evidence of the poor quality of these candidates, this is it. These are not people even remotely interested in serving their fellow countrymen as members of parliament. They’re interested in getting into power, getting their snouts in the trough, and then leaving it there for as long as possible.

    Forget just voting them out. This is tar-and-feather material.

  25. Steve of Glasshouse

    Rudd seems to attract school children and rusted on ALP members when he does his ” look at moi ” forays.

  26. Steve of Glasshouse

    They are probably panicking at the thought of joining in the transitional economy..

  27. kruddler

    Maybe Abbott could give Christmas Island independence then hey presto boat person issue solved. Or sell it to the US for use as a naval base. Or give it to the Indonesians.

  28. Tintarella di Luna

    I sooooo want Gillard to stay. I want to see those hooded-eyes when she makes her concession speech, I want to her congratulate Tony Abbott on his thumping win and I want her to say that she will consider her future and then tell us that she’s leaving politics to give bootee-knitting classes for Altona Primary School.

  29. Leigh Lowe

    Look, folks, there is as much chance of me challenging for PM as being selected to play quarter-back fly-half for the Footscray Tigers.
    Gotta zip!

  30. Tintarella di Luna

    And just a reminder of what we can look forward to if I’m wrong …

    Thanks for the memories Philippa — you’re on fire tonight, keep ’em coming

  31. Steve of Glasshouse

    Came across a nice turn of phrase today during some reading that describes the ALP and their media fellow travellers etc quite nicely : cultural human immuno deficiency virus

  32. Chris M

    Most of the social and professional environments I travel in still talk of “the Mad monk”

    You mix with God-haters. Empty, soulless Gillard-like creatures.

  33. you’re on fire tonight, keep ‘em coming

    It’s this or do the ironing. No contest.

  34. Rabz

    If the angry marshmallow returns, it will be so that some trough snouters can continue to feed at our expense.

    But it won’t stop layba being slaughtered at the ballot box, peoples.

    The gutless, fat, stupid, parasitic, loathsome bludgers.

    Bugger what’s good for the country, it’s all about me, me, me and my taxpayer extorted longevity.

    F*ck you, Bogans!

  35. Tintarella di Luna

    F*ck you, Bogans!

    Rabz, now don’t go all genteel and snaggy on us when we need your at your VRWC best

  36. JC

    It actually wouldn’t be the best election to win on the 14th Sept. The amount of cutting back etc. will suck big time and potentially make the Libs fairly unpopular if not done right and explained well.

  37. Tintarella di Luna

    It’s this or do the ironing. No contest.

    I know what you mean mine’s on the lounge or wrinkly and limp.

  38. Tintarella di Luna

    all nor or

  39. Leigh Lowe

    I sooooo want Gillard to stay. I want to see those hooded-eyes when she makes her concession speech, I want to her congratulate Tony Abbott on his thumping win and I want her to say that she will consider her future ……

    I want her to be there when the baseball bats start whistling through the air too, but I wouldn’t get too excited about her concession speech.
    Here’s how it will go …..
    It will be late, knowing Abbott will observe the etiquette of letting her concede before claiming victory.
    It will most decidedly not be gracious towards Abbott.
    It will be loaded with barbs. They will be dressed up as “her hopes for the future” of course, but they will be thinly disguised barbs nonetheless …..
    My hope is for a united Labor party going forward” (Code – Kevin is a prick, so ditch him).
    My hope is that our progressive reforms will not be torn down, to the detriment of working Australians” (Code – Tony is a neanderthal and youse will all be sorry)

  40. Tintarella di Luna

    It will most decidedly not be gracious towards Abbott.

    Ms Gillard is the emblem of The Godless and the Graceless, and there are many more -lesses of which Ms Gillard is emblematic.

  41. Aliice

    Phillipa

    But no. Instead, they’re panicking because they might lose their seats. Heavens to Murgatroyd. Have the defibrillators on stand-by.

    I just cant help but agree with you Phillipa. They (Labor pollies) have been ignoring pretty well till now – 100 days out. they ignored the stench of rorter they tolerated. Have ignored it all and got behind julia. They are only now realising the electorate is coming for them as well – same way they came for the garbage at State level.
    Anyone get the impression here that the government of perpetual spin is about to spin out badly?
    Yes you are right – what is their angle now? Keeping their own jobs. They have suddenly sprung to life and realised their easy life is at stake. Which is why I wouldnt be at all surprised to see Julia replaced quite soon.

  42. Infidel Tiger

    Party leader betting suspended at Centrebet.

  43. Tintarella di Luna

    Which is why I wouldnt be at all surprised to see Julia replaced quite soon.

    That’s if she doesn’t hop off to the GG’s office during the internecine testicle-gathering.

  44. Jock

    Steve

    Tend to agree on Labor strategy. It follows the strategy of Mandelson in the UK where the public do not recall that many of the problems were caused by Blair and Brown. (Mind you the coalition with the Lib dems is not helping the Tories).

  45. Pickles

    Laurie Ferguson told them they have to do something about boats. About 2m people saw on ch 7&9 tonight a bloke who said sharia was going to rule Aust. There’s only about 200 chatting about the leadership of the Labor party.

  46. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    My understanding, and I am happy to be corrected, is that the report into the “Heiner affair” is due to be released at the end of this month. Given that Rudd was quite high up the food chain of Queensland politics at the time (Chief of Staff to Wayne Goss, if my memory serves me correctly) what will his future be if the report says nasty things about him?

  47. Aliice

    IT

    Party leader betting suspended at Centrebet.

    What does that mean? All bets are off due to a horse scratching?

  48. Aliice

    Pickles

    About 2m people saw on ch 7&9 tonight a bloke who said sharia was going to rule Aust.

    Deport him. What the hell is wrong with us? No Sharia is not going to rule Australia and by the time the idiot who said this is in his coffin his daughters or granddaughters will have married Australians and told the old codger to nick off with this Sharia and will have forgotten it.

  49. Bondi Tram

    Very good analysis, spot on in my opinion. It will be a Hayden/Hawke timing, so maybe the day after she calls it (or perhaps while she is at Government House!).

    There a lot of well off, baby boomer Howard haters out there, and they don’t like Tony. Fortunately, most of them live in safe Liberal seats and are effectively silenced.

    We will be in a recession by the end of this calendar year….tough for the Libs. I almost wish Rudd gets back, because Labor will have to deal with the recession they caused…after another six months, everyone will have had a gutful of Rudd and ALP. But we will have suffer for 3 more years.

    All those who have been calling for Abbott to take a tougher line, take note: this is not a done deal, Tony knows it and caution is the watchword.

  50. val majkus

    Rudd’s triumphant tour was stage fixed

    Reader Palszy says Kevin Rudd’s triumphant tour of Geelong was actually stage-managed down to almost the last cheering supporter. For a start, the crowd scenes were not filmed in the marginal seat of Corangamite, but the safe seat of Corio next door:

    Andrew…as I posted Friday Corio Village shopping centre is the bogan capital of Australia. I do not intend to be derogatory, but it is a fact of life. Corio is Geelong’s version of Broadmeadows on steriods. Labor could install Mikey Mouse as the leader, and the Corioites would vote for him.

    What amuses me is Dick Marles seat is one of the safest Labor seats in the country, while Darren Cheeseman’s Corrangamite seat is one of the most marginal…why didn’t Kev weave his magic at the Waurn Ponds shopping in Grovedale (bigger than Corio) in Cheeseman’s electorate?

    I will tell you why.. The public response there would be abhorring…definitely not adoring …believe me, the average IQ rises considerably once you cross to the southern side of the Barwon River in Geelong.

    BTW…just spoke to mate who’s daughter works as a hairdresser at Corio Village. She said that Friday was a circus, totally scripted from start to finish…a bus load of Labor supporters arrived a half an hour before Kev and his entourage. All the TV was shot outside John Eren’s (local state member) megazine floor office with his staff and the bus people. My mates daughter reckons Kev was exposed to the general public for less than a couple minutes, always surrounded by the ‘bus people’. She also noted that the comments from the women in the chairs in her salon when Kev wandered past her shop was not what we seen on the TV Friday night.

    who’da thunk it

  51. thefrollickingmole

    The unions have crunched the numbers, they desperately need enough seats to try and block a royal commission.
    Nothing else matters.

    Kev gets them enough to block either a double dissolution or losing the senate, then guess what?

    Is Kev prepared to have an election loss hanging around his neck though? Whats better for him, king for a day, or lord of the ruins?

  52. Glenn

    (“Most of the social and professional environments I travel in still talk of “the Mad monk” and almost none of these people would consider voting Coalition under any circumstances. These people make me very nervous as they must do the Coalition as well.”) Frankly I’m not sure who it is that you are referring to here but it doesn’t matter much. Any person only carries one vote, remember that. For the rest of it we are seeing the ALP in the death throws, and it won’t be pretty I can assure you of that. As far as their dirty tricks, we are all painfully aware that they are masters of these, it’s just a shame that they have not put the same effort into competently running the country.
    The labor party, or should I say the socialist party to be more accurate, have plenty of so called progressive support in the press, and are greatly unhappy that all the spin has fallen flat and the people are rightly, on track to set the matter right. It is not hard to see from the manner of their reporting that they are still in there batting away to do their bit for the cause.
    So you can go ahead with all the scenarios you like, if it makes you or them feel better, but the power of the people will not be swayed, as you seen in the Queensland and NSW elections. I think that as a voter I can talk of how I feel about the matters you have raised, and whoever came up with the idea of the ALP rejuvenating itself in such a short space of time (2017-2019) whereby the electorate would trust them again so soon, are kidding themselves. I would say closer to a generation would be a more realistic scenario.

  53. Aliice

    dont say closer to a generation Glenn

    A generation in politics is the time to the next election. John Quiggin thought the libs would be out for a generation too when Rudd was elected.
    No one can sit on their laurels in this game because the electorate watches and waits.

  54. Bondi Tram

    I think there will be more polls of the “If Rudd was PM” type in the near future which will be interesting.

    Also a quandary for Lib strategists – do they run the Rudd ads. before he gets in, or straight after? And would straight after give enough time for them to impact?

  55. val majkus

    that link to Bolt’s post above does it for me
    I’ll never believe those pictures of Rudd with adoring fans ever again without wondering where the buses are parked

  56. Septimus

    The unions have crunched the numbers, they desperately need enough seats to try and block a royal commission.
    Nothing else matters.

    Perhaps so.

  57. Aliice

    Val me neither…

    I’ll never believe those pictures of Rudd with adoring fans ever again without wondering where the buses are parked

    What a fake. The whole thing stage managed all the way….they must be thinking of Kevin 13 (its a bad luck year) if someone has the money (no doubt you and I) to throw at Kev and a bus tour full of extras and cameras rolling???

    What is going on? Where does the money come from actually?

  58. Jim Rose

    if Rudd was to come back, he would only have to make one mistake and his poll bounce would shatter.

  59. Aliice

    septimus – perhaps so…

  60. Jim Rose

    Gillard replaced Rudd because she said a good government has lost it way.

    will that be the reason for Rudd replacing Gillard?

  61. Aliice

    Rudd would love to come back BUT its too late me thinks…way too late…

  62. C.L.

    The Big Push has been orchestrated over the past 48 hours – with Fairfax leading the way with a helpful bait poll. A special award for nauseating pop-pom waving to the far left-wing Courier (Sunday) Mail which today led with a page 1 story (“The Rudd Baron”) – featuring loveable illustration of Kevin the fighter pilot ace coming to the rescue – followed on page 3 by a story on the latest asylum seeker deaths beneath an odd editorial banner headline, “This has to stop.”

    No mention of the fact that Baron von Shithofen was responsible for the oceanic holocaust.

  63. C.L.

    The ALP hates woman.

    They scared off Nicola Roxon and they’re about to throw Julia into the rubble skip.

  64. Gab

    I reckon this is all hype pushed by the union big bosses who know only too well the media will lap it up and splash the story in every paper, and then sit back and watch the reaction. It’s like a massive focus group with the unions taking the temperature of the electorate before they either make a move or leave things as they are.

  65. JC

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/did_kevin_rudd_con_the_media_with_his_triumphant_tour/

    Of course it was scripted. Have a look at the video especially around the 40 second mark when the little turd finds a black person and clutches on to her for a photo shoot. These people are fucking sickening.

  66. Jim Rose

    Rudd will not challenge if he thinks he will lose. Five or so MPs decide who to vote for as they go into the party rooom. Gillard can win even if she is a few short on the numbers because these late deciders will not be in Rudd’s column when he dicides to put his name forward.

  67. C.L.

    Have a look at the video especially around the 40 second mark when the little turd finds a black person and clutches on to her for a photo shoot. These people are fucking sickening.

    Mother of mercy.

    They’re all deeply sick sociopaths.

    Remember this.

    The bloke next to Rudd’s like, ‘what the fuck is this bozo doing? How heavy is a single leg?’

  68. Gab

    Have a look at the video especially around the 40 second mark when the little turd finds a black person and clutches on to her for a photo shoot.

    Notice the Muslim women in the background? Bet he wasn’t game to hug them.

  69. Aliice

    FFS

    C.L. I just looked at the film. The first thing that happens is supermarket doors open and a whole ot of “suits” pile out. You know – not at my supermarket!
    Also have a good look at the crowd scene at the end. All this hugging but there is no less than every race in the pic – chinese, two women in hijabs, an aboriginal, a nigerian or african black and chinese as well and a disabled.
    Wow Kevvie does multi culti scripting..
    I dont know about you lot but I would be damn hard pressed to see that many nationalities in my supermarket.

    Total and utter scripted garbage IMHO.

  70. Tintarella di Luna

    Remember this.

    Sure do – sanctimonious try-hard blow-hard. Remember every Sunday we’d get a homily from good Ol’ Kev as he and Therese exited the church. And the heathen media would lap it up, godless uckfays.

    Urrrhgggh the thought of that prissy little fake returning has sent me to the grappa tonight — feeling somewhat tingly, should kick in a little better a little later.

  71. Infidel Tiger

    Why don’t the ALP expel Rudd? What’s the bitter c u next tuesday going to do?

  72. Steve’s been rather quiet. This just adds credence to my theory that he’s Kevin Rudd.

  73. Leigh Lowe

    They scared off Nicola Roxon and they’re about to throw Julia into the rubble skip.

    They scared off Nicola Roxon and they’re about to put Julia in a chaff bag and throw Julia her into the rubble skip.

  74. Tom

    Tinta! I should have known that, as a Roman-Sicilian-Maserati, you do Igpae Atinlae.

  75. val majkus

    Kevin the fighter pilot ace

    thanks CL – certainly fits in with Jo Hockey’s question of the day – which I’ve linked above – warmonger, fits in with Kevvi the compassionate medico; the passionate climate change believer – remember when they had to lock him out of the final negotiations; the PM who loved his own voice so much he had to be fed all the questions on notice in question time; … but doesn’t fit my perception
    What does? I’m speechless – would have to be something to do with theatre; the Rudd/Gillard experiment has been an exercise in stage management …. so maybe one of those clowns with bulbous noses and open mouths that you fit ping pong balls into at shows

  76. Aliice

    Pig Latin Tom (translated to “arpy darpy”)?

    Every Oz kid does that rite of passage…

  77. Tom

    This just adds credence to my theory that he’s Kevin Rudd.

    You’ve got it totally wrong, Philippa. He’s actually Julia Gillard’s dog. Gab has a video of him.

  78. Tintarella di Luna

    Igpae Atinlae.

    I’m fluid in it — particularly after consuming some home-made grappa

  79. Aliice

    Tom Tinta is showing her sicilian roots

    The words she was looking for I think were
    Odgaylessay Uckferays??

  80. twostix

    Also have a good look at the crowd scene at the end. All this hugging but there is no less than every race in the pic – chinese, two women in hijabs, an aboriginal, a nigerian or african black and chinese as well and a disabled.
    Wow Kevvie does multi culti scripting..

    I just watched it and thought exactly the same thing Alice.

    So what do these ALP media people do to organise such a thing, sit around a table and say: “Right, find us a couple of muslims, a couple of asians and a couple of blacks to show Victoria how non-racist Rudd is”?

    Do they pay them? If so aren’t they violating various racial discrimination acts and in any case isn’t doing that by definition racist?

  81. Tintarella di Luna

    Kevin the fighter pilot ace

    He got in early practice in the family car – penniless pauper priggish school boy, relying on cold charity, I wonder how often he got to practice that load of tripe?. His middle name isn’t Rick is it? You know written with a silent P?

  82. Aliice

    Hang on Intatay and omTay

    No… its odlessgay uckerfays!

  83. Ahhhhh Tinta, many happy Young Ones memories there.

    Sorry Tom. Got it wrong again. I apologise. Isn’t that the dog that wrote a book or something?

  84. C.L.

    At least Rudd organises a stunt properly.

    Remember when Gillard came up to Queensland to show she ‘cared’ about the flood victims?

    She wandered into a relief centre and – basically – this is what happened:

  85. Tom

    Gabrielle, if I ask nicely, would you show Philippa your video of Julia Gillard’s spaniel?

  86. Tintarella di Luna

    sicilian roots

    My roots are strictly Etruscan. With that I Pheonician with discucian of my roots.

  87. Tintarella di Luna

    odlessgay uckerfays!

    Glad you cleared that up Aliice I was a little confused I didn’t recognise the dialect.

  88. Gab

    You’re very smooth, Tom you know I can’t resist you! Here.

  89. m0nty

    Poor old Steve Kates, he’s predicted 17 of the past zero Gillard dethronements.

  90. dover_beach

    You have to feel sorry for Purple Panda.

  91. Tintarella di Luna

    Thanks Gab — had to laugh — again, that yappy little creature makes me want to slap Kevni, really hard. I just cannot stand that nasally, know-it-all rhythm in that nasally whiney smallus-dickus voice, it’s just as bad, and no worse than the Gillard intonations which leave me sweating after a paroxysm of vulgate and profanities and a certain six-letter coined word.

  92. Tom

    Made my night, Gabrielle. Isn’t it a wonderful world at the moment?

  93. Infidel Tiger

    Fucking hell. It’s on!

    Gillard $2.44
    Any other candidate. $1.55

    Betfair.com

  94. Gab

    It’s certainly interesting times, Tom. In a good way, of course. Tinta, I always found Kevin to be a fake persona. He does love the limelight though, part of his nature,

  95. Tintarella di Luna

    a certain six-letter five-letter coined word. FTFM

  96. caveman

    The guy eats ear wax for fuks sake.

  97. Gab

    (submit button too soon)

    and he just craves approval as a means to justify his personal worth.

  98. Tintarella di Luna

    Fucking hell. It’s on!

    D’ya think she’ll blow IT, d’ya?

    Is there a book on whether Ms G will be taking the big white/black car over to the GG’s? The odds on that would be good to see.

  99. stackja

    Kevin Rudd’s triumphant tour of Geelong was actually stage-managed down to almost the last cheering supporter.

    Just like Juliar’s tours. MSM follow the leader.
    Reminds of lemmings:

    Misconceptions about lemmings go back many centuries.
    Driven by strong biological urges, some species of lemmings may migrate in large groups when population density becomes too great. Lemmings can swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat. In such cases, many may drown if the body of water is so wide as to stretch their physical capability to the limit.

    So MSM have strong biological urges that stretch their physical capability to the limit.

  100. Gab

    a certain six-letter coined word.

    I’m only using (or rather wearing out) a certain four letter word hitherto never used by me in the hisdtory of me. Mind you, I only do so when no one is around. Gillard et al have that effect on me.

  101. Tom

    Tinta, is Discuciany on the coast?

  102. Leigh Lowe

    C.L. I just looked at the film. The first thing that happens is supermarket doors open and a whole ot of “suits” pile out. You know – not at my supermarket!

    Usually when one sees someone wearing a suit in Corio, one can address them in one of two ways:-
    “I hope ya get off” ; or
    “Deepest sympathy mate”

  103. Tintarella di Luna

    Gab the minute that prissy-lipped pussy emerged out of the caucus room having rolled Beazley with the TLS in tow I thought WTF (I’d only ever heard of him from Mark Latham’s Diaries and I’ve never watched and don’t watch Sunrise) The mealy-mouthed little uckfay has never impressed me, ever. Sanctimonious creep was my first impression, I have formed others since.

  104. duncanm

    Jim,

    if Rudd was to come back, he would only have to make one mistake and his poll bounce would shatter.

    by my reckoning, their only hope with Rudd is to time the bounce (which will occur) to peak at election day…. the dead cat bounce

    Replacing Gillard now will have people remembering what an arsehole he is, and allow the coalition too much time to regroup.

    Whoever puts him back in will have the election called very soon afterwards.

  105. Gab

    You mean those guys in the suits with the matching black/white ties weren’t Collingwood players?

  106. duncanm

    Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    My understanding, and I am happy to be corrected, is that the report into the “Heiner affair” is due to be released at the end of this month.

    Am I dreaming.. is this too much of a perfect storm to dream for? Could Heiner and the AWU both pop festering floaters to the surface before the election?

  107. Tintarella di Luna

    Tinta, is Discuciany on the coast?

    Tom you are very cheeky tonight aren’t you? I’ll humour you though and say No, with the caveat that, geography has never been my strong suit ever since we have do know about topography, tarns and tundras and pampas grass and precipitation.

  108. Oh I LOVE the dog.

    LOL

    gnite all – the ironing is done. Quittin’ time, quittin’ time!

  109. inedible hyperbowl

    I have mentioned before on this blog that JG won’t give it up. She will burn the house down rather than give over to Kev. Possibilities;
    a) she will immediately call an election to stop Kev in his tracks
    b) They roll JG and when Kev is asked to stand he says “no, you guys had your chance” and walks out.
    c) They appoint Kev and the number of resignations means he can no longer command the confidence of the parliament.
    Whichever way it goes we are in for a very early election.
    I would bet on option a)

  110. Tintarella di Luna

    I’m only using (or rather wearing out) a certain four letter word

    I’ve begun using a selection and accidentally ran two of them together and came up with a 5-letter one that I initialise into is it IT’s TLS

    It is really sad that it’s come to this but it’s the only way I remain sane, fortunately the Sunbather knows when to mute the TeeV so that his delicate ears are not assailed.

  111. Tintarella di Luna

    the ironing is done

    good for you, mine will wait for the morrow.

  112. val majkus

    yep I’m in favour of an early election
    tomorrow morning will be fine
    If that’s not possible then the end of the month
    Dream on …

  113. tbh

    This just keeps getting more fascinating. Surely the ALP wouldn’t go back to Rudd after the hatchet job they did on him. Surely not. The Coalition ads would write themselves.

  114. inedible hyperbowl

    I have thought of another problem for those who appoint the PM.
    Who can they select that has no possibility of being charged before the election?
    That gets rid of most of the front bench!

  115. Pickles

    We deserve nothing less than a cataclysmic catastrophe to end it all.

  116. Tintarella di Luna

    We deserve nothing less than a cataclysmic catastrophe to end it all.

    The current catastrophe is just not cataclysmic enough you’re right.

    With this sound track

  117. Jannie

    Anything is possible, but this seems impossible. Would Crean really support him after being hung out to dry? what will happen to Swan, Conroy and the rest of the people who did the hatchet on him. It will be so grotesque watching them restate their loyalty, it just does not seem possible. I doubt it would help their electoral prospects either, it would make them look even worse than they do. For the sheer spectacle I would like to see it happen, and watch mark Latham comment.

  118. Septimus

    Quittin’ time, quittin’ time!

    Closin’ Time

  119. Tintarella di Luna

    Buona notte gatti e gattine. Sogni d’oro

  120. val majkus

    a good (well debateable) government that lost its way
    a bad government still off track

  121. Fleeced

    I wouldnt mind seeing someone like BOF at federal level

    Fuck off Aliice, you clown. Even Turnbull – who would suck as a Lib PM – would shit all over BOF’s performance as Premier.

  122. Tom

    Alvin Lee (born Graham Alvin Barnes, 19 December 1944 – 6 March 2013) .

  123. John Williams

    I enjoy reading Catallaxy….but this is a crap article.
    It assumes that the majority of Australians are truly dummies.
    Granted a disturbing 20% think Gillard is wonderful and will transfer their allegiance to any drover’s dog that replaces her.
    Did I say 20%…yes quite deliberately, because I believe this rout will go down in history.
    Otherwise return to “the majority of Australians are dummies”
    They are not.
    Every Government of every persuasion has had great difficulty at times because they are subject to events beyond their control , but this pathetic excuse for a government (very small g) has had a litany of complete foreseeable disasters.
    People have started to realise Government are our servants not our masters…Public Servants.
    Clerks actually …and not very good ones at that generally.
    The nation survives in spite of them not because of them.
    In all my years overseas the only businessmen that EVER approached the Trade Delegation were sycophants , losers or urgers eager to get their snouts in the trough.
    The rest just got on with it.

  124. Australia be warned.

    Who would ever have thought that Obama’s agenda was for this term, and not simply to perpetuate Democrat governance beyond himself? Heed that Labor will learn from Obama and make hay while the sun shines.

    Any lazarus-like comeback to retain office will create a sense of urgency to complete the Fabian agenda during the small window of opportunity that a next term would represent. They will be hoping for a Hawke-like surge to the September election.

    Any Rudd gloating will be diminished by his cry-baby antics after having his dummy stolen the last time.

  125. Tom

    Looks like the speculation is all piss and wind and the AWU gangsters want to stick with the designated moll in return for favours:

    JULIA Gillard’s key backer, numbers man Bill Shorten, is under mounting pressure to step into the leadership crisis and call on Julia Gillard to resign as Prime Minister.

    The Daily Telegraph understands Mr Shorten last Friday conceded for the first time to the PM that the government “had problems” after a meeting of the automobile industry in Melbourne.

    In what senior Labor figures consider a significant development, the Labor powerbroker is reported to have told the PM that “we have problems”.

    But the Workplace Relations Minister is resisting mounting pressure for him to to act and call on her to step down in the interests of the party.

    It is believed both Mr Shorten and Ms Gillard were made aware of secret ACTU national polling revealing unprecedented federal swings of between 12 per cent and 15 per cent in Labor marginal seats across the country.

  126. Brian of Moorabbin

    Was never going to happen.

    None of them have the balls….

  127. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    “Looks like the speculation is all piss and wind and the AWU gangsters want to stick with the designated moll …”

    Gees I hope you are right Tom.

    I’ve spent a fabulous day with my beloved rugby and twigged to all of this late in the piece. It’s only now I’ve had a chance to read up on it all and I can tell you the abbreviated news I heard filled me with disquiet until now. Give that little turp Rudd a sniff and he is unscrupulous enough to bring off a rescue of sorts, containment anyway, which is all the more possible given the utter stupidity of the electorate.

    I want the mongrels belted to leg for a decade, the longest we can hope for, but the Slapper must be the one leading into September for the destruction to be maximised.

    I think a change of leader now is logistically very difficult for Labor, and electorally very chancy notwithstanding the apparent popularity of Colonel (retd) Rudd of Tripoli, the Only True and Rightful Leader. The faceless men have got to be concerned about replays of the many public pronouncements last time around by senior ministers about his character.

  128. wreckage

    They’re boned either way.

  129. J.H.

    As far as I am concerned it isn’t over til it’s over….. and until 15 of September when we will all know for sure…… anything can happen.

    The election is Abbott’s to lose. But I’ll not be counting chickens from eggs.

  130. Splatacrobat

    i’m happy to wait until September. My baseball bat only has one name on it. Labor 2007-2013.

  131. struth

    From the anger out there I would suggest that if the labor party don’t let Gillard take the medicine that is coming to her at this election, they will be taking it out on the party that took that right away from them. The media luvvies don’t get Australians if they don’t get this.We are not listening anymore.It doesn’t matter what labor do ……we don’t believe them, have turned off and we are waiting until the election. That’s how we do it. We deal with life the best we can, go quiet….and then come out swinging when we get our chance.We will remind the academia and the left leaning media who really has the control. Those types have treated us unthinking,only interested in sport, great unwashed peasants with contempt, believing in their own intellectual superiority, without qualification. Labor should consider history. Was it Gillard that lost the election or the Labor party?

  132. johno

    Interesting.

    A readers poll in the Labor’s media asks should Prime Minister Julia Gillard stand aside now for Kevin Rudd?

    It’s currently a 50/50 split.

  133. entropy

    I wonder if the panic merchants realise that the only thing the ALP has going for it, in an election sense, is the libs will be eggshell wary about how it campaigns because Gillard is a woman. With Rudd that constraint is lifted, and the ALP have already provided the ads.

    The ALP will also be trying to thwart the public’s vengeance, as Struth pointed out. The electors won’t like it.

  134. feelthebern

    Should she go? Yes she should.
    Will she go? I can’t see it.

    The faceless men aren’t so faceless these days.
    Don’t under estimate her ability to fight back.
    Rudd seems to think that at some stage he’ll be drafted back into the roll.
    In any leadership fight, it is a fight to the death & Kevin doesn’t have the stomach for that.

  135. entropy

    Actually, Rudd is probably thinking he has won even if he doesn’t regain the leadership. In fact that may be preferable or even the strategy, as then he won’t lead the party to defeat. But the current shenanigans will make Gillard’s defeat all the greater, and Rudd won’t be at all upset by that.

  136. candy

    I agree with Entropy above.
    KRudd won’t want to give any concession speech. He wants to see Ms Gillard’s concession speech, it will be quite a moment for him, after his speech when she knifed him.

  137. MDMConnell

    I reckon Shorten is simply positioning for leader himself. I have always thought he will try to come through the middle and present himself as the third choice candidate for those who have given up on Gillard but hate Rudd.

    Shorten becoming leader might help ensure a cleaner transition. Gillard will never go quietly for Rudd, but might be persuaded to step down for Anyone-But-Rudd,

    By leaking all these catastrophic polls, Shorten can ensure that his reputation remains intact no matter what the election result. Even a 55-45 annihilation can be spun as “saving the furniture”.

    And why the hell would Shorten help a major rival in Rudd secure all the credit for a “not too bad” result? Unless he plans to install Rudd then tear him down himself.

  138. Helen Armstrong

    Quick, everyone over to the poll to keep Julia as PM – from jonno’s link above

  139. Alfonso

    There’s nothing in it for Rudd, the 6% swing seats will inevitably return to Labor in 2016 without Labor doing anything. A still badly defeated Labor under Rudd this time will mean Shorten has a good chance of knocking him off at the post election spill. Rudd will wait.

  140. Snoopy

    Dipshit was right.

    Ugly, but it’s going to be beautiful in its ugliness.

  141. Aliice

    Oh yes the knives are out this morning – all over the paper. The choice is over who should remind her how badly the party is polling. All behind Ms Gillard until their own jobs look like coming undone. Ms Gillard trying her best to do a poor double for the Margaret Thatcher look with

    the lady is not for turning

  142. duncanm

    Yup,

    Rudd doesn’t care for anyone but himself. He’s better off waiting on the sidelines of the battlefield while the army is slaughtered in front of him. He can then canter in, pick up the pieces and be Lord of the Tarago.

  143. Lucie

    Makes me sick. How long has this speculation been going on now? A long, drawn-out, self-indulgent backroom tussle over the crown, when they’ve emptied the coffers on incompetence and opened the gates wide to potential social disharmony and worse. Aside from the entertainment aspect, don’t they realise how contemptible this carry-on is, while the country waits to be free of the lot of them at last?

  144. dianeh

    IMO, this poll of the six Labor safe seats showing a big improvement if Rudd is leader, isnt relevant to the wider electorate. If Rudd being leader would give them back half of the expected swing, uniformly across the electorate, then Labor woud jump at it. I suspect that Labor internal polling shows that Rudd’s power is only in Labor strongholds and it wins back long time Labor voters. That makes him virtually useless in the marginal seats and out in the regional areas.

    If Rudd really was able to save the day, Labor would go to him, but he cant, he at best, can reduce the damage.

    In addition, I cant see Rudd wanting to make a concessions speech, as Candy says. He is so up himself and he hates Abbott so much that there is no way he is going to put himself in that position.

    No, I think he is going to sit back (“help” with the campaign) and watch Julia take Labor to the brink of the Abyss. Then he and Therese will crack a bottle of bubbly and have a good laugh.

  145. Paul CO

    Why encourage a change to Rudd? It may cause delay, gain labor seats iin reps AND SENATE.

  146. Steve

    So, Kevin’s grassroots popularity is so strong that they have to bus supporters into one of Labor’s safest seats. Everything they do is pure spin and deceit.
    Note to ALP, Kevin isn’t the solution to your problems; he is the source.

  147. Popular Front

    They’re interested in getting into power

    And that fellow Cats illustrates clearly the difference in mindset between socialists and moderates. The Coalition ‘forms government’ whereas the ALP rabble ‘takes power’.

  148. Giffy

    Thanks to CL for the picture of Kevin Rudd carrying the man’s ankle.

    I wouldn’t put my money on Rudd; I agree, that man doesn’t picture himself making a concession speech.

  149. Rufus

    Rudd would pick up the Krong vote in Western Sydney. That might help?

  150. chris hunter

    Hope Rudd does come back, most of what’s been written about him is total fabrication. Why did the Labor party not investigate who broke into his office and stole the ‘tape’ showing him struggling with the Chinese language? The answer is obvious. Rudd had the miners whining like the new poor and Gillard and her acolytes sided with the miners, letting them off the hook. They dropped Rudd because his opinion polls were low when in fact they were comfortable. Look at the facts about the man, not the manufactured fiction! He is a wonderful and respected local member who will romp his seat in. Think about this before mouthing like idiots.

  151. harry buttle

    JC #878078, posted on June 9, 2013 at 7:16 pm
    “Who would work with Rudd? The front bench would leave en masse.”

    you say it like its a bad thing.

  152. JC

    True Harry, true.

    However where’s he going to get his ministry from; the back bench? You realize the front bench is supposedly the best and brightest of the lot. How bad do you want it to be?

  153. Nato

    I’m keeping my tip of Gillard to lead to the election.
    I love your fourth point. I’m also liking the odds for a double-dissolution election shortly before the end of the Abbott Liberals and dawn of a Hockey day.

  154. JamesK

    Hockey must never EVER be allowed to lead the Libs.

  155. struth

    Can you imagine the bagging Krudd would get with Liberals election advertising? And none of it from Liberals…….just replaying what his own party have said about him.

  156. Malcolm

    Whatever happens…. Whether its Gillard, Rudd or Shorten at the helm…. whether its anyone at all in the Labor party, they will screw up. Anything Labor touches goes bad. From 2007 it’s been one long shocking nightmare for Australia . The country has finally women up. As for Rudd, the man is a vicious incompetent narcassist who couldn’t run a raffle in a pub.And in any event, after the Labor loss Rudd would be rapidly executed. Whether that fool became leader after Gillard the clueless twit is really irrelevant.

  157. Peter S

    I have a party planned with friends in Sydney for September 14. A sort of Don’s party without the downside.

  158. entropy

    Chris Hunter:

    He is a wonderful and respected local member who will romp his seat in. Think about this before mouthing like idiots.

    While I am not ‘in’ the electorate of Griffith, I live just outside the boundary and many of my friends and relatives do live there (we are the poor ones who cant live so close to town) and have voted for Rudd in the past.

    A couple still will vote for Rudd, others won’t vote for him for one of two reasons: the damage he is doing to their party (he might get preferences from them) ; or they hate the current disfunction of the party, and think it needs some time in the wilderness to regrow: this lot also blame Rudd for most of these problems.

  159. ugh

    “Look at the facts about the man, not the manufactured fiction!”

    You mean like the busloads of ALP supporters he brought in for the media event in Corio and pretended they were adoring locals? @Chris Hunter. Was that the kind of manufactured fiction you were referring to?

    As someone living in Griffith I have to say “Kevin who?”. He’s done nothing in the local area, he spends all his time overseas. Sure that was expected when he was foreign minister, but now?

    Good article, but I think Gillard will go the nuclear option – if it looks like she’ll lose the leadership she will go to the GG. There’s no way she wants Rudd getting revenge on her…

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