Paul Murray – the post-post debate analysis

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84 Responses to Paul Murray – the post-post debate analysis

  1. irving J

    The state of victoria seems to be suffering from mass insanity

  2. Rudiau

    The people are over here and the media waaaaay there. LOL.

  3. Mr Skeletor

    As a Melburnian who lives in a poorer area / safe labor seat (norther suburbs) if Labor are hoping VIC saves their ass they are in a lot of trouble. I don’t get any sense of great Rudd love here, in fact I dare say Gillard seemed more popular. There was no Rudd swing with the change, I assumed the swing was in the moods in QLD and NSW. So I’m not sure where this 54/46 swing has come from, at best I’d say its been “no change” since the Rudd got it, if not a decline since Gillard seemed to have more supporters (local girl effect maybe) and Napthine making the State Libs seem much less useless.

  4. Dee Clarke

    Well at least there is one sane journalist/commentator out there!

  5. Token

    As a Melburnian who lives in a poorer area / safe labor seat (norther suburbs) if Labor are hoping VIC saves their ass they are in a lot of trouble.

    I left Vic for a number of reasons, but one that struck me was the way the traditionally conservative blue collar rustedon’s in the old Labor suburbs will back the ALP as they take them to economic ruin. The squandering of the Kennett legacy would not be possible if working class people stayed true to their real values – like they do in QLD & NSW.

    Are you telling me they may have woken up? We need some evidence at the ballot box as words are cheap.

  6. Anthony

    If I remember correctly, back to the last state election in Victoria, the polls suggested that the ALP would hold power. It’s history now that they didn’t. Seats in and around Melbourne are either strongly working class left or conservative/swinging seats. Commonsense tells us that the left will maintain and grow their base, in their seats. However, that small group of ”swingers” have had enough of Labor and while that group may not be statistically significant across the state, in those conservative/swinging seats they will be the game changer. Kev’s goose will also be cooked in Victoria.

  7. james

    As a Melburnian who lives in a poorer area / safe labor seat (norther suburbs) if Labor are hoping VIC saves their ass they are in a lot of trouble.

    I live in the far northern burbs as well.

    The problem is not Ruddlove, the issue is that one hellofalot of people in Victoria are either public servants, welfare recipients or the last poor souls working in manufacturing.

    And that doesn’t even count the batshitcrazy inner suburb redoubts of socialism. Yarra and Moreland council areas are places where having an ALP poster up can get your house egged, let alone a Liberal one.

    All those arts graduates we all laughed at whilst at Uni all migrated to a giant conglomeration of nice food, interesting shops and complete political nutbaggery that stretches from Northcote to Carlton.

    Their numbers might not be huge but their concentration gives them an amazing amount of influence both politically and culturally. I was working in Brunswick the other day and nearly every second crumbling Victorian town house with Buddhist prayer flags had a Greens electoral poster out the front.

    The cultural divide between zone 1 and 2 of the train lines in this city never fails to astonish me. People in the burbs vote ALP because they want something or because their parents did, people in the inner city vote left because they see themselves as a part of a vast cultural army of change rolling over the hillsides with stark raving Maoist grins turning their faces into a parody of real human emotion.

  8. manalive

    Some performance, as well as the histrionic hand waving, he was strolling up and down pointing to the audience like some tele-evangelist.
    I keep reading comments like “Australians can spot a phoney at 100 paces” (The Australian letters).
    That was the case two generations ago but if it were true now Rudd wouldn’t be within cooees of the Parliament.

  9. Infidel Tiger

    Victoria is a toilet. You’re all Tasmanians who missed the ferry.

  10. Jannie

    I think Murray may be right about the popular response to Abbotts ‘shut up’ comment. When your opponent keeps chanting a mantra of distortions, rational debate is pointless, and it is appropriate to demonstrate a certain amount of understandable frustration. Its human, and I notice it got a bit of a laugh and a cheer from many of the audience. I thought it was a great comment.

  11. james

    Victoria is a toilet. You’re all Tasmanians who missed the ferry.

    True.

    But at least we come out on top in comparison with New South Welsh.

  12. A Lurker

    Paul Murray is fast becoming a must-watch/must-listen-to commentator.

    Well done Paul!

  13. I am the Walrus, koo koo k'choo

    But at least we come out on top in comparison with New South Welsh.

    Dream on pal.

    I love Melbourne, but it’s wasted on you lot.

  14. james

    Dream on pal.

    I love Melbourne, but it’s wasted on you lot.

    Awwww… Butthurt much?

  15. Gab

    Paul Murray last night after the debate. He’s really very good.

  16. Mr Skeletor

    What you also have to remember is that the last State Labor government (which was always run by Brumby) despite being a “do-nothing” government didn’t fuck the state over either. Overall they did a mediocre job, which is more or less continuing under Libs who have been a massive disapointment. The areas they did screw up in, like freedom of speech, didn’t get noticed much by the mainstream.
    QLD and NSW on the other hand just experienced absolute numptie Labor governments. If the last state government had been like Kirner’s, then the swing would be on in VIC as well.

  17. Matt

    Melbourne is a paradise.

    Its features include:
    – some nice bits, surrounded by
    – filth and graffiti as far as the eye can see
    – horrible little properties at eye-watering prices
    – freezing winters complemented by extortionate energy costs
    – ethnic ghettos
    – gang warfare
    – The Age
    – AFL bogans
    – surprisingly bad Thai restaurants

    You can get a good coffee, but.

  18. Anthony

    Kevin Rudd earlier this morning at Trades Hall in Geelong:
    “This bloke is on a different planet … he is not experiencing the same reality as anyone in this room is,” the PM said.
    Mmmm, is this the same Kevin Rudd with a family fortune estimated to be in excess of $250m? I’m sure Tony Abbott’s family income is much closer to the unionists in that room than it is to the Rudd family income. Unless, of course, there were a few Thomson and Williamson types in the group.

  19. What you also have to remember is that the last State Labor government (which was always run by Brumby) despite being a “do-nothing” government didn’t fuck the state over either.

    See, if this is what Rudd had delivered, his legacy would not be so poisonous – a few billion in the red here, a few billion there, from year to year – but nothing like the $300bn we’re pushing towards. But he and Gillard and the sycophants they appointed have thoroughly trashed, raped, sodomised and beaten the Labor brand to a pulp. What it will take to bring it back to something like Hawke made of it, I have no idea.

  20. Sinclair Davidson

    Paul Murray is fast becoming a must-watch/must-listen-to commentator.

    Yes – I’m finding this too.

    I’m very surprised that the ALP are doing well in Victoria. I was at a Nipper’s function earlier in the year where everyone gets to talk about their kids and swimming and stuff and all of a sudden there was this outbreak of anger against the government. People started slagging off the ALP and Julia Gillard. It was quite incredible.

  21. james

    Its features include:
    – some nice bits, surrounded by
    – filth and graffiti as far as the eye can see
    – horrible little properties at eye-watering prices
    – freezing winters complemented by extortionate energy costs
    – ethnic ghettos
    – gang warfare
    – The Age
    – AFL bogans
    – surprisingly bad Thai restaurants

    You can get a good coffee, but.

    All true.

    The Thai restaurants are indeed awful but the “AFL Bogans” may be our best feature.

  22. Eyrie

    Infidel Tiger
    #968043, posted on August 22, 2013 at 10:16 am

    Victoria is a toilet. You’re all Tasmanians who missed the ferry.

    Yeah I spent 5 years there in 1971. Even worse, Melbourne is full of people who think it is the greatest place on Earth.

  23. Anthony

    Mr Skeletor, what you have to remember are Myki and the Wonthaggi desal plant, and some of the worst judicial appointments in the history of the state – a government that appointed a thug to the highest judicial position who then played havoc with the social system. The Bracks/Brumby period was close to the debacle we remember as the Kirner government.

  24. I am the Walrus, koo koo k'choo

    Awwww… Butthurt much?

    This person votes.

  25. james

    I’m very surprised that the ALP are doing well in Victoria.

    Cmon Sinc, we hated Julia down here almost as much as everyone else outside the press gallery.

    But now [sadly] Kevin is back the default setting of the most left wing state in Australia was bound to surface.

    You sound like Pauline Kael “Nobody I Know Voted For Nixon!”

  26. james

    This person votes.

    Sometimes twice.

  27. Rabz

    … all of a sudden there was this outbreak of anger against the government. People started slagging off the ALP and Julia Gillard. It was quite incredible.

    I’m finding this too – you can be having a conversation with an individual or a group of people, be quite guarded and suddenly the topic of ‘da gubberment’ will just happen to come up.

    When it does, people invariably have very little to say that is in any way complementary to Rudd, Gillard and the ALP. And that’s here in the ACT!

  28. Pete of Perth

    Matt:

    you forgot shit loads of cigarette buts

  29. james

    you can be having a conversation with an individual or a group of people, be quite guarded and suddenly the topic of ‘da gubberment’ will just happen to come up.

    As a political Junkie this is why I love election time, the people around me are suddenly interested in the same things that I am.

  30. Sinclair Davidson

    You sound like Pauline Kael “Nobody I Know Voted For Nixon!”

    But … but … nobody I know did vote for Nixon. 🙂

  31. Mr Skeletor

    Mr Skeletor, what you have to remember are Myki and the Wonthaggi desal plant, and some of the worst judicial appointments in the history of the state – a government that appointed a thug to the highest judicial position who then played havoc with the social system. The Bracks/Brumby period was close to the debacle we remember as the Kirner government.

    I agree, but Myki and the Desal Plant is more or less what ended up bringing Labor down (and the smart meters.) Plus the Libs supported that stupid Wonthaggi white elephant so they could never really claim victory there.
    Thwaits was the biggest disaster this state has ever seen, but I don’t think the damage he did was ever really noticeable to Joe Q Public until the Jill M. murder, which I think is now causing a shift away from the left.
    I’m not saying they were very good (I must admit I liked Brumby, but he had a shit team around him) but you have to remember they were in for ages (was it 12 or 16 years?) and the big stuff ups didn’t come until the end. Ven wioth those I don’t think they were anywhere near as bad as the QLD and NSW governments, nor Kirner who really sent the state broke.

    All that being said my original point was I don’t think Labor support down here is as striong as the polls are making it out. I see a lot of Labor hate and I mostly hang around the working class and northern suburbs.

  32. Rabz

    you forgot shit loads of cigarette butts

    And deposits of vomit everywhere on weekends.

  33. james

    I don’t think the damage he did was ever really noticeable to Joe Q Public until the Jill M. murder, which I think is now causing a shift away from the left.

    The difference in public sentiment towards Law and Order issues has been noticeable since that case.

    Normally right on hipsters listening to crap music in artfully dilapidated inner city cafes are now bang alongside the idea of throwing away the key for violent offenders.

    If that is a reflection of a wider public mood then Napthines intervention on the Parole system may be moving a few nominal lefties into the “undecided” column.

    At least until the person committing the next high profile violent crime turns out to be black. Then the natural balance should reassert itself.

  34. Say what you like about Melbourne, but I’d take it over Tasmania any day – if I could afford it.

  35. Fred Lenin

    As a highly trained observer and assesorof peoples character in a previous life ,I have worked rudd out.He is a classic Psychopath,his miserable life has been Lies and Bullshit all the way,he bullshitted his way into foreign affairs ,a nest of incompetent bullshitters,the he bullshitted that arrogant clown goss and got the cheif of staff job,and set up his the business os his wife to rip Taxpayers off for squillions. Next he bullshitted himself into politics,a natural place for a Liar like him,then he stabbed Beazley ,a decent man ,in the back and with the help of the criminal union mafia became leader,but even the union crims had enough of him when hw Lied his way into government,they flicked him for one of their own union crooks giLiARdwho could Lieas good as him. The selected LIEder of the. really Clever union mafia then found giLIARd was a liability ,she would lose and their criminality would be exposed ,so back to the crazy manipulator again in the hope he would save them from exposure back to mare ruddshit,which is worse than bullshit,Abbot was right when heasked if rudd never shut up,he cant afford to shut up people might read thru the ruddshit and even the dimmest might realise how Dangerous this Bastard really is!

  36. CasKav

    Andrew Bolt has the following revealing post debate Facebook comment from make-up artist Lily Fontana: Just finished doing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott’s makeup for the People’s Forum at the Broncos Leagues Club. One of them was absolutely lovely, engaged in genuine conversation with me, acknowledged I had a job to do and was very appreciative. The other did the exact opposite! Oh boy, I have never had anyone treat me so badly whilst trying to do my job. Political opinions aside…from one human being to another…Mr Abbott, you win hands down.
    Two responses:
    “Anybody that has ever spent time with both men (which I have ) will tell you exactly the same,” one friend posted. “Abbott a genuine decent man, Rudd an elitist grub who thinks he is superior to all!!!!”
    “I second this Lily. I have had a very similar experience! Must run in the family as Mr Howard and Mr Costello were gentlemen with a capital G. Mr Abbott is following in their footsteps. The other, I could not even face book how he treated the crew. Just abhorrent!”

  37. Craig Mc

    Thwaits was the biggest disaster this state has ever seen, but I don’t think the damage he did was ever really noticeable to Joe Q Public until the Jill M. murder, which I think is now causing a shift away from the left.

    You’re thinking of Rob Hulls who was attorney general. Although with so many disastrous personnel, it’s easy to be confused. Thwaites is the idiot who blocked the Mitchell River dam and doomed us to the desal plant. He’s enemy#1 as far as I’m concerned.

  38. Mr Skeletor

    Thinking about it, I’d sum up my ‘feel’ for how melbourne views the leaders like this (based on the circles I move in obviously.)
    – Gillard: Was not popular. Did have a few female fans (like my mom!).
    – Kevin: Less popular than Gillard, since he doesn’t have the odd female sticking up for him.
    In fact I can’t think of 1 example of a person who prefers Kevin to Gillard, nor do I get that vibe anywhere on the streets, so I don’t buy the argument that Kevin has caused a shift to Labor).

    THAT BEING SAID
    – Tony abbott: Not popular. I love Tone but I lots of people I talk too can’t seem to stand him. I think a lot of peoples attitude is “they are both shit”. No this is not a request to change to turnbull.

    I get the impression via the media that Tony is more popular in NSW and QLD. Maybe he should spend more time in VIC which could sway people down here towards him. I think the Rudd vote is soft here.

  39. egg_

    Mmmm, is this the same Kevin Rudd with a family fortune estimated to be in excess of $250m?

    The type are said to flirt with the wrong side of the law.

  40. Lucie

    Yep, Rudiau, the last line sums it up, doesn’t it. Can I just say, though, folks -guess what? While even The Australian is calling that show last night “unspun, unfiltered” – “at last” – it was nothing of the sort. It was just another version of leftist media managed Klaytons’ KRuddebate – non-debate: hand picked audience of Q&A style student/bleeding heart types asking Q&A style minority issue questions.

    This is actually quite a serious problem we have with the Australian media pretending they aren’t behaving like dictatorial propagandists, when that’s exactly what they’re doing.

    Will we EVER get a real people’s forum – open to ALL of us to speak openly with our leaders – or are the media going to continue the insulting farce of presenting these utterly unrepresentative and completely boring productions, wasting our time and the politicians’ breath?

  41. james

    I get the impression via the media that Tony is more popular in NSW and QLD.

    Polls agree.

    – Tony abbott: Not popular.

    Yup, I think this has more to do with how many seriously feminine men there are in our great city, they fell threatened by masculinity and feel compelled to let fly with defensive snark.

    Kevin: Less popular than Gillard,

    Nah plenty of tradies who would never have voted for Julia are now swingin back and forth because of Rudd being back.

    A bit of “Bastards the lot of them” sentiment heading around working class circles but Rudd should get more votes than Gillard.

    TBH working class tradies from non Anglo backgrounds hated Gillard with a fucking vengeance, I talk to them every day and a large chunk were so glad to see the back of her they would vote for a donkey in a red rosette as a plea of gratitude to the ALP for liberating them from such an obviuous shrew.

    An overly strong female reminds the Italian blokes in particular of their wives and mothers. Not a good move considering the typically ambivalent love hate relationship in the average southern Italian home.

  42. Mr Skeletor

    Thwaites, Hulls , I can’t tell the bananas in Pajamas apart either.

  43. Lucie

    Too many “seriously feminine men” in Melbourne, eh? LOL that is a problem indeed.

  44. james

    Too many “seriously feminine men” in Melbourne, eh? LOL that is a problem indeed.

    Outside the political sphere not really.

    Cuts down on competition.

  45. Too many “seriously feminine men” in Melbourne,

    And not nearly enough feminine women.

  46. james

    And not nearly enough feminine women.

    Ouch….

    True though. Nth QLD has the best looking girls, hands down.

  47. An overly strong female reminds the Italian blokes in particular of their wives and mothers.

    Yes, but that’s because like Gillard, they are strong in a way that is sick and diseased instead of supportive and co-operative. But that’s what you get if you marry within that culture.

  48. “On Thursday, Mr Rudd said he understood “the person concerned” had withdrawn their remarks and indicated their regret.
    Mr Rudd said that when you’re preparing for a debate “you’re in the zone”.
    He also said that even at the best of times, he was not happy about putting make up on.
    “No hard feelings,” he said.”

    Now, the sleazy little weasel tries to paint himself as the victim, and Lily Fontana as a liar who “regretted” making up stories. Too late, methinks, Herr Krud.

  49. Mr Skeletor

    An overly strong female reminds the Italian blokes in particular of their wives and mothers.

    Yes, but that’s because like Gillard, they are strong in a way that is sick and diseased instead of supportive and co-operative. But that’s what you get if you marry within that culture.

    What an ignorant and stupid comment.

  50. Lucie

    Sums up much of what’s wrong with modern society.

    Nth Qld you reckon, James? What’s your authority? 🙂

  51. james

    Nth Qld you reckon, James? What’s your authority?

    Many lovely afternoons in Port Douglas and Townsville.

    What an ignorant and stupid comment.

    vai piangere da tua madre

  52. “On Thursday, Mr Rudd said he understood “the person concerned” had withdrawn their [sic] remarks and indicated their [sic] regret.

    Yes, the woman did regret posting her remarks after she was abused, bullied and calumniated—by the supporters of the man who once promised that he’d never silently condone abuse of women:

    Australian men need to take responsibility for changing the behaviour that leads to violence against women and children, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.
    It is time to end the silence which indicates a tolerance of violent behaviour affecting 350,000 women every year, at a cost to the nation of $13.6 billion, he said.
    “Because for too long, silence has been seen as a form of tolerance,” Mr Rudd said in a speech in Canberra on Wednesday.
    “And our national resolve must be zero tolerance. Zero tolerance when it comes to violence against women and violence against children.”

    Ruddy bullying hypocrite.

  53. Anthony

    Thwaites, Hulls , I can’t tell the bananas in Pajamas apart either.
    I can’t tell the difference between the Pyjamas until I peel them.
    Of Thwaites and Hull – Thwaites is the one with a strong green tinge (still), and Hull is the one with bruised knuckles. Easy.

  54. james

    Yes, the woman did regret posting her remarks after she was abused, bullied and calumniated—by the supporters of the man who once promised that he’d never silently condone abuse of women:

    The sad thing is that the only reason she posted such an update was that she didn’t realise just how insanely full of hate the average lefty is.

  55. Lucie

    Does that Ruddy bloke ever shut up??!

  56. An overly strong female reminds the Italian blokes in particular of their wives and mothers.

    Yes, but that’s because like Gillard, they are strong in a way that is sick and diseased instead of supportive and co-operative. But that’s what you get if you marry within that culture.

    Mrs Shossmeister is a wog, though not Italian. You are full of shit.

  57. Pedro

    I wonder what is the difference between the various budget bottom line predictions and the actuals over the last 6 years. I expect its quite a bit and is the easy basis for a slap down on the costing questions. “Look, the labor govt blew its costings by $#bil over the last 6 years so I think maybe they should just shut up about this.”

  58. Lucie: If you are still on this forum, please forgive me intemperate outburst over The Krud Diaries on the Q&A thread the other night.

  59. DMS

    extract from something sent to Mr Bolt but relevant here:

    “Unfortunately I “had” to watch most of the debate without sound – I was in a gym and the dominant TV volume was Big Brother, but the screen directly in front was the debate so all I saw was body language. A useful experiment as it happens.

    I was shocked to hear even talk of a draw when I caught the wrap-ups. I saw a frustrated- and twitchy-looking Prime Minister bustle and fuss and yes even stalk Abbott (although that came across OK sometimes) and look not in command of proceedings. Abbott by contrast looked confident, statesmanlike, although possibly occasionally too confident, and certainly in charge.”

    I then said
    “To be even close to a draw the costings/PPL arguments the PM made must have really hit home”

  60. Lucie

    What, Shoss? “Intemperate outburst”?? Unless I missed something, I thought it was all lighthearted.

    Did you abuse me into moderation? Do a KRudd?

    When will we get the latest page from the diaries? Looking forward to it.

  61. eam

    Thwaites, Hulls , I can’t tell the bananas in Pajamas apart either

    Thwaites was the ‘pretty boy’.

    Hulls was the ‘bruiser’.

  62. Ha. No, I thought I was a bit over-wrought. I suspect I was tired and emotional. All good then.

  63. Andrew

    The state of victoria seems to be suffering from mass insanity

    Nah, if you average out the polls in a state by state basis, excluding Tasmania, Victoria will have the largest swing against Labor. We will pick up 3 and a small chance of 4 seats in Victoria off Labor.

  64. Lucie

    Hmm. 🙂 Tone sometimes hard to convey in print…so vive l’emoticon! 😉

  65. min

    Why is it that so little is said about Rudd’s aggressive behaviour. Shouting , waving his hands about , invading personal space , he was almost nose to nose in Abbott’s face and Abbott asked a question after moderator had tried to get him to stop talking.

  66. Mr Skeletor

    Because Rudd has become irrelevant. Everyone is studying Tony since he will be the PM and they want to know what they will get. Rudd is yesterday’s man.

  67. nic

    Paul Murray is fast becoming a must-watch/must-listen-to commentator.

    I agree.

    With regards to Melbourne, just what is it with the graffiti everywhere, tolerated as if its some sort of chic artistic statement. It makes a good city look like a slum.

  68. Jim Rose

    murray is a very succesful populist coming from the centre. insighful commentator too.

  69. I notice a huge effort in Brisbane of late to remove graffiti a long the suburban rail lines. I think it must be related to the privatisation of Queensland Rail or maybe it’s the Newman government. Whatever, it’s most welcome. Unfortunately they are yet to deploy hunters equipped with night scopes and shotguns.

  70. John Comnenus

    There are some important electoral differences between the US and Australia. In the US you have to get your supporters to turn up and vote, people turned up for Obama but they didn’t turn up for Romney.

    In Australia everyone turns up. The key figure in my mind is how certain people are of their voting intentions. I think Paul Murray has been making the obvious point that undecideds are breaking heavily against Rudd. But as usual the election will be decided by low information voters. These voters still probably aren’t engaged.

    I think you need to look at the equation in two tranches. This week was probably the last week to firm up your position with people who are engaged. On this front I think Abbott has done well and I think he has locked in a good lead with engaged people. Perhaps a decisive lead.

    Next week the championship quarter begins for the low information voters. This is where Rudd could do well with his cuts, cuts, cuts line. So next week I hope the LNP unleashes its advertising blitz. And with low information voters the only thing that works is a scare campaign. Rudd knows this and has pivoted in this direction. Abbott and the LNP need to unleash a torrent of negative advertising. We haven’t seen the ads yet where ALP MPs call Rudd a psychopath etc. If the LNP do not use these lines, then I think they will lose. It is inconceivable that the LNP won’t go negative at the end.

    Next week is the time to go very negative on Rudd, bring out the make up ladies comments, the airline stewardess – there should be a theme of Rudd being rude to women.

    But remember the best indicator of electoral success is the betting market, and here the LNP is streets in front. It would be almost inconceivable for the punters, on aggregate, to be wrong. Remember how we all thought the polls and punters were wrong re Obama? The punters were right in the US and they are almost certainly right in Australia. The punters haven’t started backing Rudd because of last night’s debate that low information voters didn’t watch anyway. I don’t think Rudd picked up many engaged undecideds because of last night.

    Lets hope Loughnane has his negativity ready to go, because frankly there is a lot to be negative about when it comes to the ALP.

  71. Makka

    Murray tries to keep it real and has the common man’s view. I like that because it’s grounded in commonsense.

    On the debate; what IS IT with Crudd’s hand chopping, finger counting, pointing over here and then over there, the shoulder swivelling AND the lip licking??

    Does he not realise that we have left high school and Uni, not ll people were dux of the debating team, that we are adults and what we want is honesty and no bullshit accompanying what should be simple yes or no answers? I’m convinced that HE has convinced himself that if he bullshits long enough and earnestly enough we will all suffer selective amnesia and forget the last 6 horrible years enduring these INSUFFERABLE arseholes enjoying their privileged lives at our expense. That somehow the contempt the ALP and Crudd have shown for us was a figment of our imagination. They really do care.

    Tony, where are those attack ads??????

  72. Cold-Hands

    When will we get the latest page from the diaries? Looking forward to it.

    Lucie liebchen, get The Krud Diaries at the source although as yet there hasn’t been any update after the debate.

  73. Rococo Liberal

    It seems that in Qld and NSW that theold party loyalties of the bogan have been broken. Labor can no longer count on the guaranteed vote the outer suburban blue collar workers.

    In 1996, John Howard delivered energised the western Sydney voter and delivered a cluster of seats in outer suburbia and beyond to the Liberals. Even 2007 at least half these seats were saved. Labor is now in trouble in more seats further inside the metro area, as the revolt against the Labor idea grows.

    But none of this seems to have happened in Victoria.

    Can anyone here from Victoria explain why this should be so? Are there more unionists in Victoria? Or is it that despite of the cries about the NSW right of the ALP, the Victorian ALP is actually far better organised?

  74. rafiki

    John Comnenus at 4.07

    You say “If the LNP do not use these lines, then I think they will lose. It is inconceivable that the LNP won’t go negative at the end”, but I then read you as saying that the betting market tells us that it’s certain the LNP will win. Seems inconsistent. Perhaps the “almost inconceivable” is the out?

    I think there is a danger in the LNP going hard with the negativity. Does not this play into Labor’s story about Abbott?

  75. JC

    Are there more unionists in Victoria?

    Yes.

    We also didn’t have the incompetent and corrupt Liar Party government NSW had. Don’t forget that NSW was solid Liar Party until people couldn’t take it anymore. It’s also hipster central. It boggles the mind how sewer rat and human trash like Adam Ant could win the seat of Melbourne.

  76. Rococo Liberal

    JC

    I am talking Federal not State. Here in NSW we have been more solidly Tory Federally thatn Vic has been in decades.

    I assume you are saying that Melbourne is hipster central. Of cpourse the word hipster there is used in the perjorative sense as wannbe, ignorant yokel who is one step up from a bogan and wants to hide it by flaunting sterotypical views.

    Yes, that’s Melbourne 🙂

  77. Mr Skeletor

    Also since Kennett got the flick the State Libs havn’t been much chop. They need another big personality who isn’t an arseclown like Doyle.

  78. Andrew

    Also since Kennett got the flick the State Libs havn’t been much chop. They need another big personality who isn’t an arseclown like Doyle.

    Matthew Guy and Michael O’Brien are both high quality ministers who will be top quality ministers or even Premiers in the future.

    Can anyone here from Victoria explain why this should be so? Are there more unionists in Victoria? Or is it that despite of the cries about the NSW right of the ALP, the Victorian ALP is actually far better organised?

    May union based industries reside in Melbourne. Additionally, the Party organisation has done a poor job in the past in Victoria.

  79. Jazza

    Hi folks
    I’ve received my postal vote papers today.
    Good, I was feeling full of my loathing for the Ruling Circus Troupe,Gawd I even found a 50 note to donate for the local blue campaign! so–I have put the Reps votes in:
    1 Lib. Nat sitting MP(electoral Division of Moncrieff Qld)
    2 Family First
    3 One Nation
    4 Citizens Electoral Council
    5 Palmer United Party
    6 The Greens
    7 Australian Labor Party
    I think I should have reversed 3 and 4, but what the heck,I penned it in!
    Now comes the voluminous spread sheet of the Senate–usually I number below the line but I think that will take me all morning tomorrow to write it out carefully and jiggle thefew good guys and all the clowns and crooks around into some sort of decent order so my vote gets maximum traction– should I just be content with following the Lib/Nat guide above the line?

  80. Jeffrey

    Rafiki at 5:50

    I believe your point on the negadividy bears consideration. But don’t you think the the lo fo voter needs to be blitzed before just before the day

    Just play the clips of Rudd being canned by his own.

  81. Lucie: The Krud Diaries has an abscessed tooth and the flu, so may be late with an update. I can recommend Day 19.

  82. rafiki

    Jeffrey
    Yes, you may be right. There is plenty of opinion that attacks on opponents work, and if run late Labor can’t make much of them.

    I still wonder whether even a late flurry of attack ads will take the gloss off Abbott’s carefully constructed persona as a reasonable, mature and even a bit above it all. The ads could swing some voters away from him. I am not worried about the LNP losing; it is the Senate voting that is critical, and every vote counts.

  83. Lucie

    Oh, I’m sorry to hear that, Shoss – what a combo! No pressure! Will have a look at day 19.

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