Here is some really interesting live AEC-provided election information that might help project the scale of the disaster about to befall the ALP.
Every election parties organize postal votes for voters in each division. They send them out, collect them and get them into the AEC.
In the 2010 election the following numbers of postal votes were submitted by each party:
-Greens: 7 (0%)
-ALP: 254,678 (50.1%)
-Coalition: 242,035 (48.5%)
-Others: 2,957 (0.6%)
In this election so far (and this is unlikely to change by much with only a couple of days left):
-Greens: 1019 (0%)
-ALP: 151,516 (27.2%)
-Coalition: 399,800 (71.8%)
-Others: 4663 (0.8%).
The difference for each party between 2013 and 2010 is:
The Coalition has increased its share of the postal votes they organised by 23.3% whilst the ALP has lost 23.8%. Of course not everyone who gets a postal vote organised by a political party will vote for that party. The votes inside the postal ballots won’t be revealed until Saturday Night. But this is still a very good proxy of where the electorate is heading.
These shifts to the Coalition and away from the ALP are absolutely massive even when you take into account that the minor parties are under-represented in this particular data set.
In light of this information I just can’t see how the polls are right, and it also suggests that the punters are underestimating the scale of win Tony Abbott is looking at.
Why is this solid, AEC generated, absolutely accurate information so at odds with the polls? I have no answers. But the field evidence here suggests massive swings against the ALP on Saturday. On these figures I can’t see the ALP mustering more than 30% of the primary vote and I can’t see the LNP getting less than 55% of the primary vote.