Guest Post: Fisky – The Boats and the Split

The politics of unlawful boat arrivals could be to the modern Labor Party what the Split of ’55 was to their predecessors.

The recent news that there had been no unlawful boat arrivals in Australia for over five weeks, after tough measures from the Abbott government, came as no shock to rational observers of the political scene, but the bewilderment and fury it caused to the Left and the Labor Party provided some light entertainment. Torn between triumphantly claiming that the government had somehow ‘failed’ and condemning the government for succeeding unfairly through secretive methods, the Left have clearly been unable to come to terms with this issue in the 12 years it has featured prominently in national affairs. Much worse for the Left is the recent polling released by Essential Vision and UMR Research which shows not only that the Abbott government is on the right side of the politics of irregular migration, but also that there is no prospect of recovery for the Left. Handled properly by the Liberals, the politics of migration could be no less potent for them, and just as lethal for the Labor Party, as Communism and the Labor Split were up to the 1970s.

First we’ll look at the breakdown of the polling to reveal how deadly this issue will continue to be for Labor. The standout figures from UMR Research are that 60% of those polled agreed that the “Australian government should increase the severity of the treatment of asylum seekers“, while 59% disagreed with the statement that “Most asylum seekers that arrive by boat are genuine refugees“. In addition to this, 59% of respondents said that refugees should not receive welfare assistance from the government. As this polling was collected in December 2013, at the height of the Abbott government’s military operations, it’s difficult to conceive of a hypothetical measure the government could take, short of actually torpedoing the boats, that wouldn’t receive majority support from the electorate.

The latest Essential Media Research polling largely reinforces these findings. 35% of respondents say the government is “taking the right approach” to asylum seekers while 25% say the government is “too soft“. Only 22% of those polled said that current policy was “too tough”. So as things currently stand we could summarize as follows: a little over a fifth of the electorate actually oppose the government’s policies from the Left and are theoretically receptive to Labor’s criticism of the government. At least 60% are openly hostile to the Left’s policies – this is further evidenced by the 60-63% polled during the Gillard years who replied that asylum policy then was “too soft” – while the remainder are apathetic or acquiescent. Given that the opponents of the government’s tough line on boats are already in the tank for Labor, and also that the same people have a disproportionate influence on Labor policy, there is simply no room for Labor to move at all, so long as boat arrivals remain a live issue in politics.

If we go further into the UMR data, the Labor Party’s troubles are if anything compounded. The 30-49 year-old demographic go 62% in favour of ramping up deterrence measures against unlawful boat arrivals. The 50-69 demographic are 61% in favour, with 68% of voters aged 70+ supporting a harder line. But even among the millennials aged 18-29, a plurality of 48% support tougher policies on boat arrivals, with only 40% disagreeing. Finally, some of the harshest attitudes to boat people are found among those earning less than $40,000 per year, with 65% wanting a stricter approach; this rises to 70% among voters with TAFE or trade qualifications. These figures are absolutely diabolical for Labor, because not only are they unable to gain traction on the issue in the present, the demographics ensure there is no possibility of their ever being able to draw breath so long as illegal migration, or the mere prospect of unlawful boat arrivals, is a matter of public importance. It would take about 30 years, assuming a substantial turn-around in the attitudes of younger demographics, before Labor might be able to re-enter the debate and win the issue on their own terms. But there is nothing in current polling data pointing to that as a likely outcome.

By contrast, the Liberals have an opportunity to make anti-illegal immigration the anti-Communism of the 21st Century – in effect, a silver bullet topic that instantly disqualifies the opposition from serious consideration, simply on account of the topic being raised and discussed. The beauty of this is that the merits of the issue itself are not even the most salient factor, although in this case it’s difficult to think of any policy that has been more thoroughly trialed and refuted by experience, on its own terms, than the Labor government’s asylum policy post-2008. What makes this matter so potent, and poisonous, is that the Left have no way of even being able to approach it in a level-headed and rational manner. They can’t neutralize it in the same way that the Liberals shook off Work Choices, due to the history of unlawful boat arrivals in Australian elections.

The starting point is that an entire generation of Left political activists, policy advisors and pundits have been reared on the following myth – that John Howard stole the 2001 election on a xenophobic lie, that the selfish electorate refused to see the light after the lie was exposed, and even had the nerve to vote in greater numbers for the wicked Howardian usurper in 2004, and that the stupid voters cared more about their McMansions than human rights. Such total paranoia on the Left is compounded by the sequel – what was supposed to have been a long period of progressive political dominance post-2007 was derailed once more, this time by the Abbott Liberals’ campaign of racist hysteria against the non-existent flood of boat arrivals. This distraction along with Labor’s vacillating response caused them to lose office prematurely at the hands of ungrateful voters, before the government had a proper chance to bed down their enlightened and self-evidently correct policies. What we are looking at here is the Australian Left’s Dolchstoßlegende, and as with the German Right’s irrational obsessions of the inter-war years, the Myth cannot be critically examined without calling one’s motivations into question.

This hysteria is undoubtedly a good thing for the Liberal Party, because the facts, the background and the emotional dynamics guarantee that just as the issue is an automatic loser for the Left, it is also impossible for them to ignore/neutralize it. The opportunities for Liberal trolling and baiting are endless as the Left are programmed to respond exactly as anticipated when provoked, usually by either condemning the government for cruelty and/or secrecy, or claiming ludicrously that the new policy has already failed. If you are still not convinced that the Left are operating in a vacuum of irrationality and self-harm, just consider that Labor truly believe they had a clever cut-through line about the Abbott government’s military secrecy – “They promised to Stop the Boats, but now it’s become Hide the Boats!” – it’s difficult to guess how they thought this would play with the 60% of the electorate who believe that the Abbott government needs to take a harder line, that the majority of boat people are not genuine refugees, and that refugees should not be entitled to welfare at all. The ABC/Guardian/Fairfax press have been especially helpful by trumpeting the alleged inhumanity of the Abbott government, how it is heartlessly returning desperate asylum seekers in leaky boats to Indonesia, and apparently getting the navy to physically torture them on the high seas! Such information is no doubt useful to would-be boat arrivals weighing their diminishing probability of success, as well as being reassuring to swing voters in marginal electorates.

So how can we string this out for the next generation? There is a temptation to assume that there will be less demand for people smugglers in future, because the world is getting wealthier and folk will not be as desperate to abandon their own country as they are now. This is mistaken. The poorest people in the world have no chance of raising the 10K-20K cash for an illegal boat journey – that’s why there are so many of them rotting away in refugee camps in Africa (and that’s precisely why said people should be the focal point of our humanitarian concern). But those in middle-income countries certainly have the resources to buy their way into the developed world, and we may find that even as the raw volume of misery decreases, the demand for asylum into rich countries may perversely increase. There is also the fact that for the next 20 years at least, the Howard/Abbott Aberration will be a formative experience for those who control and set the agenda on the Left. It’s not clear how they would even start to discuss a settled policy of boat deterrence with their peers, when to do so at present invites an accusation of racism.

It is very likely that the Liberals will have reduced boat arrivals to almost nothing by 2016. It is also likely that Labor will continue to make incredibly daft statements about the boats as they attempt to cover all their bases out to the next poll. Labor have taken at least five totally different positions to the voters since 2001 (agreeing with Howard; calling him a racist liar; let’s abolish the Pacific Solution but turn the boats around; the East Timor solution plus onshore processing; no onshore processing and you’re all going to Papua New Guinea!). These should be brought together in a snappy production to help voters revise the history of Labor’s paralyzing incoherence on boat arrivals. The video should finish off with a few more recent quotes that underline Labor’s confusion and debt to the refugee lobby. It must be explicitly warned that Labor will open the floodgates as soon as they get back in office. Another production could focus more on the human costs of open borders, in particular the 1,000+ people drowned at sea and the billions wasted on ‘managing’ rather than solving the problem over the Rudd-Gillard years, reminding the viewers once again that Labor were responsible for this state of affairs.

We should also consider how to talk to different constituencies about this important issue. Swing voters would be very interested in the merits of the issue – stopping the deaths at sea, re-gaining control over our national sovereignty, fixing Labor’s mess, and still meeting our international obligations in terms of permanent re-settlement of genuine refugees. But when confronted with a member of the refugee lobby or the anti-Abbott Left, it would of course be totally pointless to discuss with them the substance of the matter. Instead, the main focus of the interaction ought to be how Labor killed over 1,000 people, how Abbott is the nation’s saviour for blocking the ‘queue-jumpers’, how his policies have the overwhelming support of the Australian people, and that there is nothing the Left can do about it because they are the minority. This should elicit the usual accusations of racism, including expressions of disgust towards the Australian people, which is of course exactly the sort of tone that will damage the Left’s long-term interests. The more prominent Left-wingers we have out there calling Australians racist and yelling for open borders, the easier it will be for voters to draw the link to the Labor Party and resolve never to trust them again. Which in turn fuels more Left-wing paranoia, hysteria and hatred towards the electorate. This is a vicious cycle, and so long as they are not engaging with the issue rationally, they will never be able to neutralize it.

There are many angles to the politics of irregular boat arrivals, and I have only dealt with a few of them. No doubt others will have much more to add. What we can say is that this issue is not going anywhere, that all demographics are strongly in favour of a tight pro-deterrence policy, that this will not change in the foreseeable future, and that Labor could well face at least another decade (and perhaps a generation) of excruciating pain if the Liberals are able to keep the boats front-and-centre.

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112 Responses to Guest Post: Fisky – The Boats and the Split

  1. Demosthenes

    Boat people are hardly the threat communists were. I really don’t know what people are worked up about, especially considering the vast majority of our illegal immigration comes from visa overstayers.

  2. Baldrick

    Demosthenes
    #1167475, posted on January 26, 2014 at 10:11 am

    Visa overstayers don’t end up on welfare.

  3. Cato the Elder

    Ummm. And visa overstayers have, like, you know . . . . . a visa.

  4. Cato the Elder

    Which, it occurs to me may NOT be obvious to everyone, means they had a passport and passed security and health checks on the way in.

    Also, as Baldrick noted, they don’t use welfare or Medicare, don’t get heaps of Free Stuff (TM) and generally aren’t much of a problem

  5. Yeah, but let’s not compare apples to oranges. In order to be a visa overstayer, you must (by definition) first have arrived openly and legally with all your papers in order. That’s quite a different thing from turning up in a rickety boat, which you then deliberately sink in sight of Australian naval vessels in order to force “rescue”. Anyone who does that is IMO a sick and evil piece of work who should spend the rest of their days rotting in solitary confinement.

  6. andy

    mass migration of people that will need lifelong services from leftie human rights paralegals is a big business. mass migration of people that will form settlement communities that will vote for the welfare state is a cornerstone of leftie election strategy looking forward. without the left skewing mass migration to include mass numbers of welfare dependants,would gillard have scraped in at ‘her election’?. when 1 or 2 percent of the voting public can swing an election,having the left importing ‘vote people’ can change the electorate enough to steal an election over the long game of a decade.australia will bring in over 3 million citizens in the next decade or so. if the left can skew this number in the favour of welfare dependancy,they have power in the bag.

  7. Demosthenes

    Ummm. And visa overstayers have, like, you know . . . . . a visa.

    That’s expired and thus is not a visa anymore.

    Visa overstayers don’t end up on welfare.

    Maybe if we let boat people work and send their children to school, they wouldn’t either. Besides, you’re pre-judging an entire group of people based on the behaviour of *other* people (who happened to fall into the same administrative category). There’s a word for that.

    In order to be a visa overstayer, you must (by definition) first have arrived openly and legally with all your papers in order. That’s quite a different thing from turning up in a rickety boat, which you then deliberately sink in sight of Australian naval vessels in order to force “rescue”.

    Papers that are no longer in order. They’re illegals. But it seems their illegality is not actually the problem, it’s the probability of new arrivals using Australian resources that they didn’t contribute to. Which is a legitimate concern, absolutely. What puzzles me is the amount of effort (politically, emotionally, fiscally, even emotionally) going towards this issue, considering how minor it is.

  8. james

    It is one of those cultural divides.

    I have friends in inner city Melbourne who do not know a single person who is not in favour of open borders. My work friends in the outer suburbs seem unanimous in their wish that anyone showing up without a passport demanding welfare be removed from the country via catapult.

    The two groups seem blissfully unaware that the other even exist.

    I even had one Brunswick lass after the election turn on me in confusion since I was the only person she knew who didn’t vote greens.

  9. james

    Demos a nation state unable to control its borders soon ceases to exist.

    Most Australians get rather ansty about that.

    Also the statistics on refugee welfarism, particularly from those demographics that arrive without identification by boat, are freely available. I suggest you do some research.

  10. Bronson

    Don’t be a Richard head demo we’ve been down your inadequate arguement before and you got your bottom spanked then but as you are ever the trier just like the labor greens party just keep on digging that pointless hole.

  11. ChrisPer

    Conservatives think lefties and progressives are irrational; lefties and progressives think conservatives are evil.

    Attributing evil to the other side is what they call a defense mechanism, projection. It isnt an actual mental illness. However the escalating insanity of the latte/’chardonnay side of politics is becoming worrying. They look like they might spray us with their halitosial spittle, right throught the computer screens.

    The good thing is we have the guns; the bad thing is they would use them.

  12. DrBeauGan

    The public memory is short and if there are no boats there will be no issue to remind people of leftist incompetence. A pity because this issue has been an excellent demonstration of it as Fisky observes. But even this will pass, bugger it.

  13. nerblnob

    Those few “boat people” that I know of from first or second person contact are not generally desperately poor or in fear of their lives in their home country. But discrimination and persecution threaten their livelihoods and would probably eventually threaten their lives. They are trying to transfer what wealth they have, and their family, to a safe place for both wealth and people, and Australia is one of those places. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for Australia. (Many Vietnamese and Cambodians were in a similar situation)

    But there are clearly criminal elements among the seaborne groups and the country has every right to control who enters. Overall, I’ve been impressed by the Hazara I’ve met.

    It’s a divisive issue but doesn’t always divide down traditional left vs right lines,.

    On the wider issue of immigration generally, there are plenty on the “left” who are anti-immigration.
    e.g:
    Greenies and doomsayers against Big Australia or indeed any population growth.
    Unions against increasing the labour supply.
    After all it was the “left” who were the originators and longest supporters of “White Australia” and it was Labor who tried to press the buttons recently with the 457 beat-up.

    All of which is a long-winded way of saying these issues don’t necessarily favour one party over another over the longer term.

  14. Alfonso

    Excellent strategy. And a little extra advertising re Labor effectively ceding Australian border control to Marty and his band of corrupt officials. The Indonesians claim their territorial sovereignty matters but Australia’s territorial sovereignty does not matter and Labor, when all said and done, agrees with Indonesia.
    Political poison for the comrades.

  15. Baldrick

    An expired visa is still a visa, it doesn’t magically disappear, just as an expired passport is still a passport but it can no longer be used for its intended legal purpose.

  16. Tiny Dancer

    “An expired visa is not a visa” a typical illustration of how the left twist things and ignore what you said. Pathetic.

  17. Gerry

    To further confuse the Left, who believe they own compassion, the government could start developing a stronger refugee program from refugee camps .

  18. Craig Mc

    But, but, but, you don’t understand – Morrison should be sacked!

    The Libs’ main problem is the electorate’s short memory. Morrison will have completely solved illegal arrivals by the end of the financial year. That’s two years of “what illegal immigration?” before the next election. Just like Howard defused the issue for Rudd in 2007, the Libs will do the same for Labor in the future.

    We all know Labor can’t help but fuck up the solution and turn it into a problem again – hell, what didn’t they fuck up last time?

    But “we” aren’t the electorate.

  19. Demosthenes

    Demos a nation state unable to control its borders soon ceases to exist.

    Sure, I agree. In what way were our borders not under control? How often do boat people reach landfall? I’m pretty sure intercepting everyone coming to our country counts as having control over our borders.

    I’m still not seeing what people are getting so worked up about.

  20. Old Salt

    If a person determined to remain illegally in Australia can simply buy an airline ticket and a visa and then disappear after arrival, why would anyone want to pay for a boat trip from Indonesia?

    Unless of course that their background precludes a visa in the first place!

  21. Ubique

    “I really don’t know what people are worked up about.”

    This is the Sarah Hanson-Young line. It doesn’t wash. The deaths of thousands of people at sea, lured by reprehensible government policy and lax border controls, will always be something to get worked up about, despite the best efforts of the ABC and Fairfax to ignore the matter over six years of the Rudd-Gillard government.

  22. Vicki

    the Liberals have an opportunity to make anti-illegal immigration the anti-Communism of the 21st Century

    I have little doubt that this “mass migration” of people (as andy @10.28am rightly identifies) from the undeveloped world to developed nations will become one of the foremost sources of global upheaval in our era. It has been gathering pace since the end of WWII as western economies expanded their work forces, but is now being accelerated by global interconnectivity, increasing affluence and ease of transportation. Europe and the UK have realised too late that unchecked migration – legal or illegal – has had disastrous consequences for their cultural integrity and social harmony. They are now lamely looking at measures to regain control and it is being discussed rationally for the first time as the Left loses the high ground on this issue.

    Interestingly, other western democracies are closely watching the early success of the Abbott government in stemming the tide of economic immigrants.

    As Fisky implies, what needs to be addressed now is a profound analysis of this historic movement of people and its implications for the West. It certainly needs to be distinguished from the asylum seeker issue.

  23. Vicki

    Sorry, didn’t unblock quotation from Fisky’s post.

  24. DrBeauGan

    The thing that comforts me about this is the massive wrongology of it, of M0ntyesque levels, and there was someone whose wrongology fills one with superstitious awe. Everything they said would happen didn’t. Everything they said wouldn’t did. Wrongology at this level doesn’t happen by chance. It proclaims an enduring stupidity. God grant that all my enemies be fools! And so far He seems to be doing exactly that. Thank you God. Now if You could just take unto Your bosom a few of the LNP, You know which ones, we could set about making Oz the heaven on Earth You clearly intended.

  25. Andrew

    Boat people are hardly the threat communists were. I really don’t know what people are worked up about, especially considering the vast majority of our illegal immigration comes from visa overstayers.

    True. And it was true during the Howard666 years. Unfortunately it WASN’T true during the Gillard-Rudd 100 boatees a day years. This meme got created when there WERE no boatees. I’ve had some fucking grub claim (citing a 10yo stat) that 97% of illegals are overstayers! I said “so for each of the 50,000 Kev boatees there are 30 Poms who didn’t leave on time?? Do the maths.

    The fact is
    - Gillard managed to get boatees up over illegals from planes. An incredible achievement
    - boatees stay forever, overstayers often just for 15 days illegally
    - the relevant stat is the population of illegals, not the number registered (and then ejected). That number is overwhelmingly SIEV-sourced

    Good article. But I think the one thing missed is the narrative “we stopped the boats pre election and any boats since have been due to Abbott666s inept bungling.” The ALPBC will be helping Burq and Marles run that into the election.

  26. Jim Rose

    boat people will not be an issue at the next election.

  27. JC

    But I think the one thing missed is the narrative “we stopped the boats pre election and any boats since have been due to Abbott666s inept bungling.”

    That’s true. The reply to that sort of bullshit is that Liars basically adopted Liberal party policy.

  28. Demosthenes

    why would anyone want to pay for a boat trip from Indonesia?

    Often because turning up for their plane trip means alerting the authorities they are fleeing.

  29. boy on a bike

    Let’s say cousin Jim from Queensland calls and asks if he can come down and bunk at your place for a month. You say OK because:

    - you know who he is (he’s your mum’s sister’s kid)
    - you know he is not a crook, and you know he isn’t carrying cholera, typhoid, AIDS, malaria etc etc etc
    - he’s got money, so he will contribute to household expenses whilst he is camping on the couch
    - he’s bought a return ticket to Queensland leaving one month after arriving
    - your mum rang his mum and confirmed he is not on drugs, bonkers or on the run from the fuzz

    A week past the end of the month, he shows no signs of leaving, so you boot him out. The deal was he got the couch for a month and no more.

    Contrast this with some bloke who claims his name is Alfredo and he’s from Fitzroy who jumps your back fence, appears in your lounge room one night when you are watching TV and demands to be put up for ever.

    - is his name really Alfredo? He looks like his real name is Xu-Lian
    - is he really from Fitzroy? By his accent, it’s more likely he’s from Werribee
    - you have no idea where he’s really from – he paid a passing bloke 20 bucks to boost him over your back fence
    - he has no money and no job, and the first thing he does is ask you for 50 bucks to order a pizza. When the pizza arrives, he throws it on the floor and complains that it is no good. He wants 50 bucks for another one
    - he is covered in some nasty looking sores, and he scratches a lot
    - the next morning, you find your laptop is missing
    - you don’t like the way he looks at your young daughters
    - he also uses your phone to call his family and tell them to come crash at your place

    I detect a slight difference between the two scenarios.

  30. Andrew

    What puzzles me is the amount of effort (politically, emotionally, fiscally, even emotionally) going towards this issue, considering how minor it is.

    I assume you’re one of the people who are NOT puzzled by the effort directed at the trivial event that temps are half a degree warmer now than in our grandparents’ day?

    Imagine an 80yo. You walked up to them their 18th birthday and said

    “We will universalise cheap electricity shortly, by building generators in the Hunter and la Trobe as well as hydro in the Snowy and Tassie. No more wood fires/ gas lights.

    We will become very wealthy. Plants will grow faster – a LOT faster, feeding a world’s population considered impossible. Trees will flourish. Ag will boom. There will be fewer deaths in winter. There’s no catch. There will be the same amount of rain in Sydney as there has been for the last century. Same or fewer tornados, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts. (But keep an eye on the hazard reduction burns – of course with better Ag, grass and scrub will also grow faster and could be a bit of a fire hazard.)

    You will not notice the half a degree. It will be measurable by satellites though. (What’s a satellite? Oh, um – yeah we’ll explain that a bit later…)

    This gentle mildening of the climate (the equivalent of moving from Sydney to Gosford) will be cited as the greatest moral challenge and disaster of our time, you will vote for parties proposing to reverse all of the above, anyone speaking for the status quo will be branded in the same terms as Nazis. The world will spend $1bn a DAY to make a tiny slowing in the rate of Co2 emission. Whole countries [Spain] will regress to the third world through voluntarily aiming to show leadership in removing coal from their economies.”

    They would be perplexed by this vision of the future.

    Yet somehow people like Demon do not find this odd at all. But they can’t understand why the ALPs border control policies are so horrendously unpopular.

  31. Demosthenes

    I assume you’re one of the people who are NOT puzzled by the effort directed at the trivial event that temps are half a degree warmer now than in our grandparents’ day?

    I don’t understand the question. Going by the rest of your post, it seems you are agreeing with me that problems with negligible consequences aren’t problems we should put high on our list.

  32. Andrew

    What BoaB said – best explanation ever.

    Plus: when you say, “No – fuck off, the rest of your family ISNT coming” he uses your phone again to call the meeja and a Green Senator to tell them what a C-unit you are, then starts a fire from your furniture, climbs on the roof and sews his lips together. Then when the coppers come to investigate the commotion, he complains that while watching your TV he saw something blasphemous and his kid smashes the cop cars windscreen and threatens to behead people.

  33. kraka

    Demo says “What puzzles me is the amount of effort (politically, emotionally, fiscally, even emotionally) going towards this issue, considering how minor it is.” Being a relative newcomer here demo it is obvious that you have been handed your backside on this (and probably) other issues several times with those pesky little facts you leftoids love to ignore. Since when was $1B + a minor issue?

  34. Rob

    Since when was $1B + a minor issue?

    When you are not paying taxes.

  35. Demosthenes

    Since when was $1B + a minor issue?

    About 95% of that are costs related to offshore detention. Just like the war on drugs, the expense is due to our response, not due to the underlying issue.

  36. Andrew

    Demon, are you seriously claiming to be an opponent of BOTH strict border defence AND Goreist climate fraud? Statistically you’re far more likely to be a liar and a troll than to be in that almost nonexistent intersection.

  37. Demosthenes

    Demon, are you seriously claiming to be an opponent of BOTH strict border defence AND Goreist climate fraud?

    I don’t oppose strict border defence. Thanks to our geographical isolation and the whole “girt by sea” thing, we’re in a better position than most of the world in that regard. Border defence is a basic requirement of government and nationhood.

    I don’t understand what we’re defending against. Immigrants aren’t a threat.

    Al Gore is a fear-mongerer, much like those beating the drum against boat people. It makes sense to oppose both, contrary to your assertion.

  38. james

    Demo people are getting ON planes in Sri Lanka and Pakistan using passports and identification then getting off in Indonesia and getting ON a boat.

    If the average Tamil country shopper was truly in fear of the big bad Sri Lankan govt they probably wouldn’t be showing up at Colombo airport to take their trip to Indonesia.

    People who are overwhelmingly leaving their point of origin by plane and who could just as easily take one to Perth as Djakarta are quite clearly getting on boats for reasons other than fear of death and persecution.

  39. james

    In other words demo, you and all the other gullible soft hearts out there are being taken for fools. They are sitting back in a taxpayer funded house with a welfare check laughing their heads off at people just like you.

  40. Tom

    What puzzles me is the amount of effort (politically, emotionally, fiscally, even emotionally) going towards this issue, considering how minor it is.

    You mean the fact that the ABC, Fairfax, most of the rest of the media, the ALP and the Greens are beside themselves about it?

  41. Demosthenes

    Demo people are getting ON planes in Sri Lanka and Pakistan using passports and identification then getting off in Indonesia and getting ON a boat.

    Source?

    quite clearly getting on boats for reasons other than fear of death and persecution

    Then their applications can be denied. Where’s the problem?

  42. Demosthenes

    You mean the fact that the ABC, Fairfax, most of the rest of the media, the ALP and the Greens are beside themselves about it?

    Yes. Also their opponents. The whole country is going berko over an issue that rightfully belongs at about #385 on our national To Do list.

  43. candy

    If the issue is really important to people, that means it’s rightfully near the top of the To Do List. Government needs to react to what people care about it.

  44. Notafan

    I am somewhat dubious about the UNHCR process as well. Australia needs to have an independant process for identifying our preferred intake.
    For example how many UNHCR refugees are flying home on holidays as soon as they accumulate enough welfare money? Even the UK says that is not acceptable.
    I know of one family of refugees that were being helped with grocery and utilies expenses by a charity, after the third trip home the charity finally declined to pick up the tab any more.
    Am happy for protection visas to be issued but permanent resettlement should be reserved for those who are prepared to contribute to Australian society, not those who seek to destroy it.
    If that means being religionist, so be it.

  45. Notafan

    The bill for the RGR years is 3.2 billion and counting, I think that puts it higher than issue #385 on the to do list.
    The economic cost is one factor, the potential for fracturing of Australian society is another. I suspect that those who share suburbs with the ‘refugees’ are very, very aware of this.

  46. Tom

    By the way, Fisky, your analysis is a tour de force for political realists. And, as you point out, the left and the ALP can’t act on this information because to do so they would have to repudiate their ideological extremism, which has made them a bunch of freaks utterly divorced from the common wisdom. They are also making themselves unelectable on climate change and the economy. The ALP has become a plodding Trades Hall edition of the Greens and are fighting for the same 10% of the vote. Shorten’s political instincts are at least as bad as the Lying Slapper’s. He is about 40% too far to the left for the ALP to improve its vote. Best of all, he can’t he thrown out because the leadership is now decided by the Little Shit’s rules, which were designed to protect him from the Faceless Men. Just beautiful. Looking forward to the Griffith by-election.

  47. james

    Demo if you want to be taken seriously on a subject you might want to at least do a modicum of research.

    People who are in no fear of persecution who show up after destroying their papers have been getting asylum for years now almost exclusively because they chose to destroy said documentation.

    Also did you think people were getting on boats at one of Afghanistans many busy seaports and coming direct to Australia? Some Sri Lankans have made the full journey by boat but everyone else has been flying to Indonesia first.

    The reason almost two thirds of your fellow citizens believe most of these people to be frauds is because they were paying more attention than you.

  48. stackja

    The politics of unlawful boat arrivals could be to the modern Labor Party what the Split of ’55 was to their predecessors.

    Evatt hated Menzies. ALP today hates TA. Menzies as I remember won in 1949 because ALP wanted a socialist Australia. Gough was elected because the voters seemed to want a socialist Australia. Hawke/Keating were soft socialists so were accepted by Australia. Kev/Julia pretended to non-socialist. Now the boats issues cuts across politics. ALP either agrees to stop the boats or face a long time in opposition. TA may challenge Menzies’ record of time as PM.

  49. boy on a bike

    I don’t understand what we’re defending against. Immigrants aren’t a threat.

    Immigration at a macro level is not a threat.

    However, immigrants must be screened to ensure we are not importing a threat.

    Do you think it was wrong of earlier governments to screen for nazi war criminals? Or war criminals from the former Yugoslavia? I recall a bit of ugliness around Sarajevo a few years ago. Are you happy with them just waltzing in and living next door?

  50. Garry B

    I get it now. TA is not going to seriously crimp the style of the ALPBC/SBS leftist mob. In a Machiavellian manner (and with taxpayers money) he hopes they will keep yabbering on with their juvenile slogans/campaigns, as a continuing reminder to voters of why they had to change the gov’t in 2013. Well, I hope that is the reason this mob of treasonous scoundrels, have not been given the boot and or off to Europe.

  51. Walter Plinge

    The thing that comforts me about this is the massive wrongology of it, of M0ntyesque levels, and there was someone whose wrongology fills one with superstitious awe.

    As James Taranto would classify it, “All Your Base Are Belong to Us…”

    —-

    Why don’t the authories deal with the problem of missing passports by telling illegals they’ll assist them to obtain a replacement from their embassy? That would solve the problem of identification and refugee status. Of course most illegals would balk at this but it might assist in sorting the genuine from the bogus.

  52. Harry Buttle

    Re the Visa over stayer = Illegal arrival argument, it is an utterly dishonest position to take.

    The vast majority of Visa overstays are on the close order of 7 days, so you might consider them to be like the drunk, boring guy who is last to leave the party, ie an annoyance, doesn’t do any real harm and, you did let him in.

    An illegal arrival is like a burglar who, having broken in, decides to stay in your spare room and expects you to support him, and later his family, for life (and in some cases, for generations).

  53. Jazza

    We should all contribute to a “Keep Labor Out” campaign for the next two years,as a building fight fund.Then the Libs can run their “workchoices” campaign just like the unions did to them, but on the incompetence and irresponsibility of Labor re the country’s borders and the economy.

  54. Fisky

    Demon, are you seriously claiming to be an opponent of BOTH strict border defence AND Goreist climate fraud? Statistically you’re far more likely to be a liar and a troll than to be in that almost nonexistent intersection.

    Yes, there’s perhaps one or two people in the entire world who think this way, and we have the privilege of their company. What luck, eh? Welcome Demos!

  55. Fisky

    Maybe if we let boat people work and send their children to school, they wouldn’t either. Besides, you’re pre-judging an entire group of people based on the behaviour of *other* people (who happened to fall into the same administrative category). There’s a word for that.

    It is reasonable to presume that people arriving under the same rules, applying for the same category, and coming from the same places, will produce similar social outcomes (about 95% on welfare after 5 years) than those who fit these criteria previously. It isn’t in Australia’s interests to take them.

    The good thing about a hard-line approach like Abbott’s is it will cost almost nothing in the long run, as the Pacific Solution in fact did. Labor’s winking, talking out of both sides of their mouth, and sideways shuffling cost us billions.

  56. Fisky

    Often because turning up for their plane trip means alerting the authorities they are fleeing.

    I have a suspicion you are either a Leftist troll or have read nothing about irregular boat arrivals (or both). The people arriving by boat are not Indonesian citizens being oppressed by the authorities there. They are from Pakistan, Iran, etc. They already flew into Indonesia from their point of departure. The reason they don’t take a second flight to Australia is because this requires a valid visa.

    Anyway, Abbott has prevailed, the Left have lost, and the polling shows the Left will always lose.

  57. Andrew

    Also did you think people were getting on boats at one of Afghanistans many busy seaports

    ROTFL, possibly located in all those low lying coastal areas where SH-Y said all the climate refugees coming from due to rising sea levels (an environmental catastrophe that occupies a lot of time in Kabul).

    Anyone who wants to confirm that these welfare seekers are coming thru airports should read the NY reporters’ hilarious article. Apart from the laughs, it’s quite clear that air travel with passport is involved.

  58. Notafan

    it’s quite clear that air travel with passport is involved.

    and that some form of subterfuge occured at the airport on arrival in Indonesia, as they were absolutely silent on details of this section of the journey,
    In one word
    Bribes

  59. Luke

    As Demos so aptly displays here “you can’t reason people out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into in the first place”. At the end of the day the best argument he can muster is that this is not – or should not – be a big issue, therefore it shouldn’t be addressed with policies to stop it. Which conveniently would result in the kind of policy he supports.

    That is why the failure of Labor’s boat people policy, or the success of the Liberal Party’s policy, will do little to nothing to change the minds of the kind of people who vote based on such a policy.

  60. Fisky

    As Demos so aptly displays here “you can’t reason people out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into in the first place”. At the end of the day the best argument he can muster is that this is not – or should not – be a big issue, therefore it shouldn’t be addressed with policies to stop it. Which conveniently would result in the kind of policy he supports.

    Yes, it’s funny how that conclusion is reached.

  61. james

    What is needed is for someone to prompt a leftist explosion of outrage in the run up to the next election. Drop some leaflets critical of country shoppers or some such and watch the left explode in a damp flailing of offendedness.

    That will remind everyone that the boats have been stopped right before polling day.

  62. Interested observer

    I was outraged by the diatribe in The Advertiser Opinion section stating that anybody opposing the free entry of undocumented illegal migrants was a racist bigoted bogan who was not wanted (by him) in this vast country of Australia with all those wide open spaces just waiting for occupants. Having now read the Catallaxy article, I will take a deep breath and cheer him on in the interests of greater exposure of hypocrisy and further alienation of the majority of Australian voters.

  63. Notafan
    People who are overwhelmingly leaving their point of origin by plane and who could just as easily take one to Perth as Djakarta are quite clearly getting on boats for reasons other than fear of death and persecution.

    The airlines wouldn’t fly to them to Perth because they don’t want to have to fly them back home on the next available flight at the airline’s expense. If they can get a passport they can apply for an Australian visa but they don’t, because any claim to be a refugee would be immediately scuttled.

  64. thefrollickingmole

    Just speaking for myself, but Id prefer not to allow more people in like the ones who openly celebrated in the Port Hedland compound on 9/11.. Dishing out sweets and celebrating, then most receiving visas to enter Australia because that sort of behavior “shouldnt be held against them”…

    The pro refugee “side” needs to realize its no more moral to accept people onshore (cashed up) than to receive those stuck in UNHCR camps.

    What needs to be done next time Sarah Hyphen opens yer yawp is a picture of a kid waiting in one of those camps being shown to her and asking “Do you realize you just cost this girl her chance to come to Australia by allowing someone to effectively “buy” a protection visa”..

    Bring it home to them that they are champions of the rich and privileged on this issue, they are allowing the “millionaires” of the refugee world to buy special treatment.

  65. Fisky

    I was outraged by the diatribe in The Advertiser Opinion section stating that anybody opposing the free entry of undocumented illegal migrants was a racist bigoted bogan who was not wanted (by him) in this vast country of Australia with all those wide open spaces just waiting for occupants. Having now read the Catallaxy article, I will take a deep breath and cheer him on in the interests of greater exposure of hypocrisy and further alienation of the majority of Australian voters.

    Don’t be outraged. It’s a blessing that the opposition to border protection is expressed hysterically (exclusively so) and without reference to facts!

  66. Fisky

    The pro refugee “side” needs to realize its no more moral to accept people onshore (cashed up) than to receive those stuck in UNHCR camps.

    No no no, we don’t want them to “realize” anything. That’s the whole point!

  67. Squirrel

    James’ observations at 10.30am sum it up nicely, and are in line with the findings that “some of the harshest attitudes to boat people are found among those earning less than $40,000 per year, with 65% wanting a stricter approach; this rises to 70% among voters with TAFE or trade qualifications”.

    No doubt, there are some very genuine and sincere motivations on the part of those who tend towards an “open borders” approach, and some of those people might actually be making a practical contribution (i.e. at their own direct cost) to assist those who have arrived here thusly – but for many others, it looks like a case of “I am in favour of refugees….(because it makes me feel good about myself, impresses people I want to impress, and comes at no direct cost to me…..and besides, some refugees eventually start up interesting little cafes, restaurants, and other businesses that my friends and I like to patronise….).

    Beyond this, it would be nice to see a genuine struggle within Labor about its relationship with the union movement – but that’s daydreaming.

  68. thefrollickingmole

    Squirrel

    Good point, its a real split between the blue collar and the uni-scum wings of the ALP.
    Its even a bone of contention within some of the unions themselves.

  69. Honesty

    Many of the left value ideology over the truth. To them you don’t argue or debate you just point to the scoreboard and ask them the score. How many illegal boat arrivals over the last five weeks? What is the level of debt? How much has the globe warmed over the last 17 years? Where is the AWU stolen money? How man years gaol did Michael Willimson get? What did Craig Thompson admit to this week? Why are there 800k people on disability support? How many people of the right present on the ABC? What was the performance numbers of the NBN under Labor? There are so many good questions to ask who needs to debate!

  70. Fisky

    I have friends in inner city Melbourne who do not know a single person who is not in favour of open borders. My work friends in the outer suburbs seem unanimous in their wish that anyone showing up without a passport demanding welfare be removed from the country via catapult.

    Even those with university qualifications are 49% pro versus 42% against “increasing the severity” of asylum seeker treatment. The Left doesn’t have a single plurality in any demographic, despite 12 years of propaganda in the schools, universities and the ABC.

  71. Fisky

    My favourite figure is the Millenials. After 12 years of propaganda and brainwashing, the Left STILL aren’t even close to convincing a majority of that age bracket about ‘Da Pwoar Refugeeeeeees.

  72. Honesty

    Tanya Plibersek on QandA “tow back the boats Indonesia won’t allow that”. I guess she has to eat those words.

  73. Chris M

    The issue now is the 30,000+ illegal immigrants already here. Are the Liberals making good on their promise not to provide permanent / family reunion visas for these?

    This pool are already breeding and chowing down on welfare, the next step was for them to start voting Labor.

  74. MT Isa Miner

    boy on a bike

    #1167618, posted on January 26, 2014 at 11:33 am

    Let’s say cousin Jim from Queensland calls and asks if he can come down and bunk at your place for a month. You say OK because:

    - you know who he is (he’s your mum’s sister’s kid)
    – you know he is not a crook, and you know he isn’t carrying cholera, typhoid, AIDS, malaria etc etc etc
    – he’s got money, so he will contribute to household expenses whilst he is camping on the couch
    – he’s bought a return ticket to Queensland leaving one month after arriving
    – your mum rang his mum and confirmed he is not on drugs, bonkers or on the run from the fuzz

    Right you are BoB, we know he’s family.

    I’ve read some views that the racial clusters are just a really really extended family tree.

    Sure, if we are smart we look at a person’s behaviour to see who is entitled to our respect but FIRST we should look at the genes/culture/background of the ones that want to sit at our table.

    I don’t care what we have to call it so people swallow the truth but a smart country knows which cultures build civilisations and which ones build corruption and cronyism.

  75. Token

    Demo argues in the same way as Jarrah. Always technically factually correct, but if you zoom out you see the underlying lie.

  76. mantaray

    Here’s how I see it….

    I don’t care that thousands of illegals drown whilst doing their illegal BS. It irks me a little that they sometimes also drown their kids, but that doesn’t particularly bother me either. What I do find shocking however is that the Left wants this to happen and is encouraging it at every opportunity.

    Look, when I read that some base jumper has plummetted to his death, or a bloke ten times the limit has wiped out his entire family in a pile-up with a tree, I just think “ah well…flamin’ idiots get what they deserve” and hope that no innocent bystander was caught up in it. But what IF there were pollies egging them all on…saying stuff like “Anyone who can drive a car in a straight line at 200 clicks, whilst ten times the limit…or who can leap from Australia’s tallest building using only an umbrella as a parachute, and survive…gets a $50,000 prize”?

    Well…I’d reckon those jerks (the pollies) should be tarred and feathered and run outta town on the front of a train.. I’d also reckon that people VOTING for those jerks to do more of the same were very very nasty pieces of work; leftist criminal nutters, in other words.

    That is all.

  77. Demosthenes

    Demo if you want to be taken seriously on a subject you might want to at least do a modicum of research.

    James, you made a claim and I simply asked where the information comes from. What should we conclude from the fact that you wrote a hundred words instead of just telling us?

    However, immigrants must be screened to ensure we are not importing a threat.

    I absolutely agree, BoaB. I don’t think anyone advocates actual open borders. All this discussion is about minor tweaks to the current system, right?

    Proper vetting is vital, but we do that, and do it well. So I still don’t see why people are upset.

    I am genuinely asking. I’ve given the issue some thought, but could easily have missed an entire line of argument. That’s why I’m in this thread. So far, probably the best argument I’ve seen is candy’s:

    If the issue is really important to people, that means it’s rightfully near the top of the To Do List. Government needs to react to what people care about it.

    Yes, the essence of democracy. Still, there’s room for leadership and not just populism.

  78. Fisky

    I don’t care that thousands of illegals drown whilst doing their illegal BS. It irks me a little that they sometimes also drown their kids, but that doesn’t particularly bother me either. What I do find shocking however is that the Left wants this to happen and is encouraging it at every opportunity.

    It irks me much more than a little that children are being drowned due to decisions they had no say in. It is disgraceful and says much about the ethics of their parents. But what is really difficult to digest is when the Left try on their P.J. O’Rourke routine about the boats and drownings, “Oh those refugees are real entrepreneurs, hey? It’s sink or swim baby!”.

  79. Fisky

    Yes, the essence of democracy. Still, there’s room for leadership and not just populism.

    And Abbott has done a magnificent job in leading. He has cleaned up a problem he inherited (death toll – 1,000+) in a matter of weeks, and the long term cost will be negligible, as it was in the last few years of Howard. Almost nothing.

    What’s your objection to the Government’s policy again?

  80. Fisky

    Proper vetting is vital, but we do that, and do it well.

    Sorry, if you are referring to vetting of onshore arrivals, how do you know we do it well?

  81. Demosthenes

    What’s your objection to the Government’s policy again?

    It’s expensive, and distracts from actual problems. Although it’s true if boat arrivals go back to zero, which is highly likely, the cost will go down. Considering by then it will be multiple billions, boat arrivals will have to stay at zero for a very long time before the cost/benefit is worth it.

  82. Demosthenes

    how do you know we do it well?

    Extremely low crime levels among refugees living in Australia. Zero terrorists let in. Stuff like that.

  83. Mk50 of Brisbane, Henchman to the VRWC

    Fisky, this post is a tour de force.

  84. Fisky

    It’s expensive, and distracts from actual problems. Although it’s true if boat arrivals go back to zero, which is highly likely, the cost will go down. Considering by then it will be multiple billions, boat arrivals will have to stay at zero for a very long time before the cost/benefit is worth it.

    Um, we were looking at an annual arrival rate of ~30,000 in the last months of Gillard. It was accelerating exponentially. For just a few billion put down, we’ll avoid an average net payment outlay of ~$600 mil plus for those people alone. So “a very long time” will be…maybe a couple of election cycles tops.

    Extremely low crime levels among refugees living in Australia. Zero terrorists let in. Stuff like that.

    Really? Where’d you find the criminology data on humanitarian visa recipients?

  85. Mk50 of Brisbane, Henchman to the VRWC

    Demosthenes:

    Although it’s true if boat arrivals go back to zero, which is highly likely, the cost will go down. Considering by then it will be multiple billions, boat arrivals will have to stay at zero for a very long time before the cost/benefit is worth it.

    Krudd boasted that for every 12 who made it here, a person died at sea. He repeated this a number of times.

    Under his watch, over 50,000 illegal immigrants arrived.

    So he claims that his ALP and greenfilth policies killed ~4100 people.

    And you have no troubles with this, becuase we have already wasted billions? Only one sort of person says things like that.

    They ‘let in’ a lot of LTTE. So many that the Sri Lankan government started barrier patrols and seized any illegal people smuggling vessels they intercepted off their coast. Among those seized were senior LTTE guilty of crimes against humanity and lesser crimes (like multiple murders. years of torture etc etc. They hanged quite a few of these animals. The Sri Lankan cimmunity here knows of many LTTE who made it here. We have no idea who they are or where they are.

    Your garbage about visa overstayers is just that, specious tripe. We know who they are, we know where they came from and when we catch them we send them back with a boot up the arse.

    The boat illegals dumped all their docs (the ones they flew to Indonesia on) and lie to us about who they are. We have no idea who they are – and genuine refugees always keep their docs.

    Becomes more obvious what you are.

  86. Fisky

    I should also say –

    For just a few billion put down, we’ll avoid an average net payment outlay of ~$600 mil plus for those people alone.

    That’s the rough net annual bill for one intake of 30,000. We would be adding another 30,000 to that the following year, and again the year after, assuming no policy change. So the Pacific Solution really did save us money in the medium term, and so will Abbott’s changes.

    But the biggest benefit comes from using the issue of boats to keep the Labor Party out of office. That allows us to abolish more regulations, reduce Green boondoggles, loosen labour market laws, and of course axe the Carbon Tax. The unquestionable payoffs from these policies should be added onto the benefits from stopping the boats, if we are being honest with ourselves. That in itself is enough justification for Stopping the Boats!

  87. Fisky

    Yeah, Demos is another one of these “Free Market” Leftists that like to swing by every so often. They want to ban carbon emissions and jail Andrew Bolt, but oh boy are they all for “deregulating” those borders, hey? :)

  88. thefrollickingmole

    Demosthenes

    You have now entered serial wrongness territory..

    Proper vetting is vital, but we do that, and do it well.

    Bulldust. Gillard/Rudd stacked the refugee review tribunal with pro-refugee advocates, and at the same time basically reversed the onus of proof for DIMIA to base their assessments on.
    Up to 90 per cent of people who arrive by boat are considered genuine refugees, but [Foreign Affairs Minister Bob] Carr said his “impression” was that now, as arrivals spiked, most were economic migrants…

    “There have been boats where 100 per cent of them have been people who are fleeing countries where they’re the majority ethnic and religious group,” he said…
    Senator’s Carr’s Foreign Affairs Department would provide courts and tribunals with large folders of “objective information” about the source countries for refugee cases…, which would mean tribunal members and judges would “have less discretion on whether [refugees are claiming] persecution”.

    ”We need to be more hard-edged about this,” he said.

    Even Bob Carr knows a soft touch when he sees it..

    DIMIA went from “tell me your story and account for any discrepancies” to “tell me your story”..

    But i sincerely hope they keep it up, it hurts them.

    As for your baseless claim of no criminal or terrorist activity.
    Ill use the tamil Tigers, we recieved thousands of these boys while i was in detention..
    This one is Swiss, but Canada has had huge problems with this as well.

    LTTE in Switzerland[edit]
    As well a providing refuge for all Sri Lankans, Switzerland has been a haven for Tamil militant groups such as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or LTTE, the aggressors of the Sri Lankan Civil War against the government. The LTTE in Switzerland have been known as the Swiss Tigers.[3][4][5] The Sri Lankan Tamil community in Switzerland has become victim to these LTTE sympathisers who have created a network of money power, man power and muscle power towards the tiger cause back in Sri Lanka.[5] Because of this Switzerland has been regarded as the “Puligalin Kottai” (tiger fort) in Europe. Its contribution to the LTTE to the war effort has proportionately exceeded that of Tamils living in other Western countries.
    End of the war[edit]
    With the end of the Sri Lankan Civil War, LTTE networks around the world were being shut down by both Sri Lankan and foreign governments. In 2011 the Swiss police arrested ten former LTTE representatives in the country for threatening, blackmailing and extortion of Tamils of the Sri Lankan diaspora to support the LTTE and the war effort financially. The funds were mainly used to buy weapons in Sri Lanka. Those arrested included the head of the LTTE in Switzerland Vijaratnam Sivanesan alias ‘Ragu alias Ragupathy’, his predecessor Chelliah Kularajasekeram alias ‘Kulam’ and the Swiss Tiger finance chief Chelliah Jeyapalan alias ‘Abdullah’. They are facing charges of money laundering and belonging to a criminal organisation

    The Tigers send young working reliable boys with families still in Tamil territory (blackmail, if needed) whos sole job after obtaining asylum is to channel money (legal or illegal) back to the Tigers.

    Our refugee system was gamed by a terrorist group to fund its operations. Thats just a cold hard fact.

    Heres canada.
    Formed in Ontario in 1986, the WTM was accused of using pressure tactics to squeeze contributions from ethnic Tamils in Canada and using the money to advance the rebel cause. Former WTM leader Manickavasagam Suresh was arrested in 1995 but fought his deportation to the Supreme Court.

    A 2006 RCMP raid of the WTM offices in Toronto and Montreal turned up requests from the rebels for money and lists of weapons. The RCMP called the WTM “part of the LTTE strategy to raise funds for rearmament.” The group denied being a rebel front.

    The WTM has since been dismantled. In 2008, the government banned it for terrorism, and last year the Federal Court seized its assets. A former WTM member, Prapaharan Thambaithurai, pleaded guilty to fundraising for the rebels in Vancouver in 2010.

    The unnamed man facing deportation had argued he should not have to testify at his hearing. But IRB Member Michael McPhalen ruled he was “a compellable witness.” The hearing is being held behind closed doors. The man is not being detained.

  89. Token

    Yes, the essence of democracy. Still, there’s room for leadership and not just populism.

    The people who supported rolling back the successful policies the Howard government put in place indulged in populism.

    Once again by their actions it is clear the Coalition have avoided the vile poltical games the left plays.

  90. Token

    They want to ban carbon emissions and jail Andrew Bolt, but oh boy are they all for “deregulating” those borders, hey?

    They who were strangely silent for 6 years you found their voice again on Sep 8 are predictable.

  91. thefrollickingmole

    Mk50 of Brisbane, Henchman to the VRWC
    The Sri Lankan community here knows of many LTTE who made it here. We have no idea who they are or where they are.

    Hate to rain on your parade but it was somewhere in the vicinity of 90%+.

    But the good news is they arent here to cause “trouble’ so much as raise funds for the Tigers. There might be criminal elements among them, but most of the blokes i met were pretty nice blokes, apart from the whole “sending money back home to support a civil war” bit.

    I cant imagine how the UN/international community keeps a straight face when it lectures Sri lanka on human rights abuses. They never even turned off the money supporting the scum.

  92. thefrollickingmole

    Demosthenes

    Now run along and read this particular tract then say allowing refugees has no negative effects…
    The article is from Human Rights watch, not exactly Bolt quality…

    Journalists and activists in the Tamil diaspora who openly criticize the LTTE or are
    perceived to be anti-LTTE have been subject to severe beatings, death threats, smear
    campaigns, and fabricated criminal charges. In 2005, the LTTE detained two British
    Tamils for several weeks in Sri Lanka in order to gain control over a Hindu temple in
    London. Such incidents have created a culture of fear within the Tamil community,
    stifling dissent and discouraging individuals from organizing activities that are not
    sanctioned by the LTTE.

    The LTTE has for many years pressured members of the Tamil community to provide
    financial support for its operations. In late 2005 and early 2006, as armed violence
    escalated in Sri Lanka’s North and East, threatening the four-year-old ceasefire between the government and the LTTE, the LTTE launched a massive fundraising drive in
    Canada and parts of Europe, pressuring individuals and business owners in the Tamil
    diaspora to give money for the “final war.” Fundraisers for the LTTE and LTTE-linked
    organizations went from house to house, and approached businesses and professionals,
    demanding significant sums of money for their cause. In Canada, families were typically
    pressed for between Cdn$2,5002 and Cdn$5,000, while some businesses were asked for
    up to Cdn$100,000. Members of the Tamil community in the U.K., France, Norway, and
    other European countries were asked for similar amounts.

    Individuals who refused were sometimes threatened. Some were told that if they didn’t
    pay the requested sum, they would not be able to return to Sri Lanka to visit family
    members. Others were warned they would be “dealt with” or “taught a lesson.” After
    refusing to pay over Cdn$20,000, one Toronto business owner said LTTE
    representatives made threats against his wife and children.

  93. Demosthenes

    Um, we were looking at an annual arrival rate of ~30,000 in the last months of Gillard. It was accelerating exponentially.

    That’s not what it looks like to me.

    For just a few billion put down, we’ll avoid an average net payment outlay of ~$600 mil plus for those people alone.

    How did you get that figure?

    Where’d you find the criminology data on humanitarian visa recipients?

    It was in the paper. If you want a link, this makes interesting reading.

  94. Fisky

    It’s worth remembering that the LTTE were a Far Left terrorist group, one of the earliest proponents of suicide bombings, that enforced totalitarian control over a captive population. Sort of a Marxist-Leninist mafia. Nice to see the “Free Market Left” all in favour of waving these guys into the country.

  95. thefrollickingmole

    Dem, Dem, Dem, whatever are we to do with you?

    That’s not what it looks like to me.

    2011–12, number arrived: 7983
    2012-13, Number arrived: 25 173

    Thats straight from Government statistics.

    I think Fisky is on pretty solid grounds pointing out a tripling over one financial year would have see us well over 30,000 for the year eh?

  96. Marg

    Why don’t the authorities deal with the problem of missing passports by telling illegals they’ll assist them to obtain a replacement from their embassy? That would solve the problem of identification and refugee status. Of course most illegals would balk at this but it might assist in sorting the genuine from the bogus.

    Once they receive a permanent visa, many of them start making visits back to their homeland.

    How are these people able to satisfy the normally extremely stringent POI requirements for issue of a shiny new passport, when they have no identification documents to start with?
    (Recently I ordered a passport for my daughter’s foster daughter prior to taking her on a trip overseas. It took many weeks, as we had to track down originals of death certificates for each of her natural parents, copies of court orders, permission from other parties, etc etc; as well as birth certificate and marriage certificate for my daughter).

  97. Yohan

    Fisky I agree with your ideas, except for the part where you think this will be a multi generational issue that will take Labor decades to get over.

    Not true. It will be a factor for the next elections, and to a lesser degree the one after, but after than people will have forgotten, and whoever is the Labor leader then will be pretending how tough they are on border security, just like Rudd pretended how much of an economic conservative he was is 2007.

  98. Demosthenes

    And you have no troubles with this, becuase we have already wasted billions? Only one sort of person says things like that.

    Where did I say I have no troubles with this, MK50? You think because I don’t like government waste, I like it when people die? That’s not a nice thing to say, and of course a total lie.

    DIMIA went from “tell me your story and account for any discrepancies” to “tell me your story”..

    Source, frollickingmole?

    Now run along and read this particular tract then say allowing refugees has no negative effects…

    I didn’t say it has no negative effects, I’m saying the negative effects are not proportional to the attention they receive.

    As for your baseless claim of no criminal or terrorist activity.

    Yet again something I didn’t say. What is it with you guys and reading stuff that isn’t there? I said “low crime levels” not zero crime. My reference to terrorists was in response to the idea put about in certain circles that the boats are just crammed with suicide bombers-to-be.

  99. Fisky

    That’s not what it looks like to me.

    Here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-10/scott-morrison-not-telling-full-story-asylum-seeker-arrivals/5119380

    Monthly boat arrivals were rocketing, and peaked at over 4,000 when Rudd brought in his PNG solution, stating that no one would ever gain entry to Australia via boat. That’s an annual rate of 50,000, but I’m lowballing the figure taking into account the monsoon months.

    How did you get that figure?

    I haven’t even considered the cost of processing someone onshore. I’m taking a reasonable figure of $20,000 per year per person net in terms of keeping them housed, fed and alive.

    It was in the paper. If you want a link, this makes interesting reading.

    From that link –

    The ABS data don’t reveal whether the foreign born prisoners were refugees or not. On that basis the entire analysis simply did not support any claims about ‘strong criminal elements amongst recent waves of refugees’.

    So, in other words, you have provided nothing to support your positive contention that refugees have an extremely low crime rate.

  100. Fisky

    Not true. It will be a factor for the next elections, and to a lesser degree the one after

    The issue was supposed to have been settled in 2001. Four elections later, it’s still an issue, and arguably was in the top three factors causing a change of government. Why? Because Labor can’t help themselves, that’s why. And that’s the point of my analysis and my article.

  101. Notafan

    Interesting that the numbers were clearly increasing. It seems likely that funds for new arrivals were being provided from Australian sources and that was bound to have a snowball effect. I do wonder if the left had a tipping point for new arrivals, they might have been getting reasonably close to knowing it was out of control. Still they knew it was a mess they didn’t have to clean up.
    I doubt Australian society will forget this too quickly, too many ‘behead those who insult the prophet’ moments these days especially in aspirational western Sydney.
    Am hoping Morrison will prevail and send most of the Tamils who arrived under RGR home.

  102. thefrollickingmole

    Demosthenes

    You obviously didn’t read any of the Tamil material, you choose to remain a fool then thats up to you.

    The vast majority of the Tamils granted visas were agents for the Tigers.
    Our (and Canada’s, German’s etc) refugee programs were gamed by a terrorist group which used our countries for fundraising, extortion and assaults.

    That same group struck India (killing a PM), Cambodia and thousands of its own countries population.
    I shudder to think what you might call unacceptable.

    And the source in my case is an ex-DIMIA chap I used to work with, there was massive pressure to “clear the decks” and the older more interrogatory interviews became box ticking exercises.

    And again, stacking the RRT made most DIMIA interviews moot anyway.

  103. Fisky

    Interesting that the numbers were clearly increasing. It seems likely that funds for new arrivals were being provided from Australian sources and that was bound to have a snowball effect. I do wonder if the left had a tipping point for new arrivals, they might have been getting reasonably close to knowing it was out of control. Still they knew it was a mess they didn’t have to clean up.

    The Left were fantasising about this issue becoming unmanageable, and that the “new reality” was importing another electorate of boat people every year.

  104. Fisky

    I note, by the way, that we are having a fairly normal discussion with someone who:

    -denies there is a net benefit to stopping boat arrivals
    -claimed that there are “extremely low crime levels” among refugees, without providing any evidence
    -claimed that “zero terrorists” had been admitted
    -also claims that they are similarly skeptical of climate change programs

    Does this sound believable to anyone else? Personally, it’s all a little bit far-fetched, and I’m wondering if perhaps we are adopting the wrong tone here.

  105. stackja

    Fisky
    #1168227, posted on January 26, 2014 at 9:14 pm
    I note, by the way, that we are having a fairly normal discussion with someone who:
    Does this sound believable to anyone else? Personally, it’s all a little bit far-fetched, and I’m wondering if perhaps we are adopting the wrong tone here.

    Right tone for the non-tone-deaf.
    As for the tone-deaf none so deaf as one who does not want to hear.

  106. Andrew

    -denies there is a net benefit to stopping boat arrivals

    I’d announced it as statistically a troll at the climate change point, but yes – this absurd claim absolutely leaves no doubt. The ALP spent $X on the HMAS Taxi service. The cost of turn back is negative – the boat is already there, and doesn’t spend the extra diesel on the Xmas Is run. The cost of medicals and security assessment are saved. Internment is saved. And a lifetime of welfare I conservatively estimate at $500k (assuming SOME will find a job one day) is saved. R-G-R cost $50-100bn present value just in boatees – that cost isn’t in the forward estimates but should be. Every Budget in history should itemise the cost of their “compassion.”

    Somehow this clown arrives during Troll Week and makes this absurd series of claims.

    The Monty precedent seems to suggest that Koranic rules apply to trolling – you must either confess, or be caught in the act by 4 adult males / 8 females. We have 2 adult males that have issued at Fatwa declaring trolling activity has occurred.

  107. Fisky

    The Monty precedent seems to suggest that Koranic rules apply to trolling – you must either confess, or be caught in the act by 4 adult males / 8 females. We have 2 adult males that have issued at Fatwa declaring trolling activity has occurred.

    Yes, I think that’s right. Are you sure it’s the Koran? I thought it was the Hadith. Anyway, we have multiple male witnesses of trolling here, and the penalties are severe.

  108. Fisky

    Andrew – also, consider the following:

    Border defence is a basic requirement of government and nationhood.

    Next sentence –

    I don’t understand what we’re defending against.

    Verdict: troll.

  109. Andrew

    Surat an-Nur 4 raises the 4 witnesses rule.

    Later Hadiths introduce stoning, an-Nur 2 only prescribes 100 lashes which really isn’t a participation sport for the crowds.

  110. Fisky

    Surat an-Nur 4 raises the 4 witnesses rule.

    I see. So the official punishment for trolls, straight from the Messenger himself so not second or third hand rubbish, is that they will be sentenced to 100 lashes.

    which really isn’t a participation sport for the crowds.

    Take m0nty, Numbers, and the latest clown, tie them to a post and whip the crap out of them. A lot of people could warm to that you know, even if they don’t get to join in.

  111. Notafan

    The Left were fantasising about this issue becoming unmanageable,

    Do you mean that they really thought it could go on forever? The voters thing I am not sure about they cluster in suburbs that become even stronger labor strongholds, they might end up having to create new electorates but that takes time.
    On the Tamils issue I thought the Lee Rhiannon Sri Lanka visit and the media play re Sri Lankan war crimes was part of a not so subtle campaign to bolster the refugee claims of Tamils currently sitting in centers in Broadmeadows and elsewhere. Morrison is just turning the new arrivals around so it isn’t around getting us to accept more Tamils, is it? I also thought I read that a lot of the Tamil claims are ones from regular arrivals that come out to visit relatives etc and then claim refugee status when their visa expires.

  112. Jazza

    Demo.is so wrong calling this “immigration” and should be called on it
    The boat people try to enter our country ILLEGALLY, so just how is that the same as authenticated, controlled immigration?

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