Griffith byelection

Next Saturday the good burghers of Griffith head to the polls to select a new MP to replace Kevin Rudd.

Right now the betting market has the ALP retaining the seat at $1.06.

A disgraceful effort by the new government that should have taken the seat. At the 2013 election Rudd held the seat on preferences – he would have lost in a first past the post system with only 40.36% of the first preference relative to Bill Glasson’s 42.22%.

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67 Responses to Griffith byelection

  1. srr

    A disgraceful effort by the new government

    Yes.

    Why?

  2. tomix

    According to Green, the only time a Gov’t has won a seat at a by-election was in 1920. link

  3. Shelley

    More fool the good burghers of Griffith if they don’t straight up vote in the good doctor.

  4. Andrew

    Why is the govt allowing the Labor grub to Gonski all over the place? The govt has a huge advantage in Q and WA – Shorten stripped $1.2bn in Gonski funding from the LNP states and Abbott666 put it back. Shouldn’t they be out there ahead of the WA senate rerun saying “Shorten-Gonski-Shorten-Gonski” every moment? Short-change Shorten. Instead Terrigrub seems to be playing the Gonski card.

  5. Ubique

    If they don’t elect the good doctor, the electors of Griffith ain’t good burghers – just dills.

  6. David

    the good burghers of Griffith

    If they vote in another Liebor pollie they’ll be the silly buggers of Griffith.

  7. james

    Can you hear the people sing?

  8. First past the post is somewhat irrelevant surely?

  9. JimmyB

    I’m in Griffith and I put the good Dr 1st, Labor/Greens last. The only decision I absolutely agonized over was who to put last and 2nd last? Labor nosed out the Green by a wart.

    All the best. Jimmy.

  10. tomix

    Many people would be unaware of the by- election. Look at the figures for the South Brisbane by-election, caused when defeated Premier Anna Bligh resigned the morning after the state election of 2012.
    Turnout was 67.5%, down 19.6%. South Brisbane is inside the Griffith boundaries. link

  11. Armadillo

    That market has changed. Last look a few days back and you could have got Glasson @ 6.00. You could have also got Adam Goodes at 6.50 for AOTY (compared to about 2.40 – 2.60) for the others. The result on the market on the Australian Open Tennis Final would have been a shock for many.

    As some here noted, the market for the ‘Rimmer Challenge’ swung pretty damn quickly. As the press were gathered outside waiting for the result of the ‘Leadership Challenge’, the result was already decided. Follow the money in that particular case.

  12. mh

    I’m struggling to work out what this post means, Sinclair. A disgraceful effort? On the contrary, Dr Glasson ran an excellent grassroots campaign in the last general election in which, as you note, he out-polled a sitting PM on primary votes. If you had any knowledge of the local context, you would know Griffith is quite a variegated seat stretching from young urban professionals near the Brisbane river to mortage belt territory ’round Morningside to old Labor closer to the motorway & K-Mart. Preferences are always going to be crucial in such a seat. I wish Dr Glasson well, he would make an excellent local member and a potential cabinet member should he win.

  13. tomix

    It is possible that Terrigrub is an exceptional candidate.

  14. srr

    What is it with Team Credlin, promoting the Left into key positions, all over the place, and ignoring, dumping on and burying their own, who also just happen to most strongly represent the changes voters voted Abbott / Team Credlin in to make.

    And while people are cheering on the stopping of the boats, which requires international diplomacy, foreign territory actions, and dealing with the hostile opposition at home, the people are happy…and forgiving / forgetting about, the other far easier to enact changes at home, we aren’t getting.
    Changes that in desperate need to have done quickly, many voted against Labor for the first time ever.

    If their is a cunning plan behind all the disappointments so far, it better be perfect!

  15. Louis Hissink

    Griffith would be a safe Labor seat, which is why Rudd had it. Hardly marginal at the moment. Make sure your teacups are made from good china able to withstand impulsive expectorations.

  16. Louis Hissink

    What is it with Team Credlin, promoting the Left into key positions, all over the place, and ignoring, dumping on and burying their own, who also just happen to most strongly represent the changes voters voted Abbott / Team Credlin in to make.

    But dear sir, only ALP types get a Rhodes Scholar ship gong, and following the English tradition, both the PM and his minister for communications, the Left Honourable Malcolm Turnbull, have to also be …..

    Paying attention are we?

  17. srr

    mh, maybe if Abbott gave as many photo only s to Glasson as Shorten, Plibersek et al, in all his, please luv me Lefties, joint venture adventures, the people of Griffith might have remembered what they liked so much about Glasson in the last round, and added new things.

    Something just doesn’t sit right about these current odds against him.

  18. Armadillo

    If you had any knowledge of the local context, you would know Griffith is quite a variegated seat stretching from young urban professionals near the Brisbane river to mortage belt territory ’round Morningside to old Labor closer to the motorway & K-Mart. Preferences are always going to be crucial in such a seat.

    Get out your wallet MH – 1.06 seems like a bargain.

  19. srr

    Photo opportunities…thanks iPhone…ggrrr

  20. Tom

    I am astonished that the market has this production-line Labor lawyer over the line, largely on the say-so of Labor-biased media hacks reciting their prejudices:

    Both parties are conducting internal polling and that tight battle is showing up on both sides, with the LNP’s small pre-Christmas lead now whittled away.

    That is because Labor had not chosen employment lawyer Terri Butler to contest the seat at that stage and the polls tested Glasson against a generic Labor candidate.

    Now with both candidates in the field, the voters of Griffith are being asked to choose between an LNP government that is disappointing many and an LNP candidate with strong personal support.

    Tony Abbott’s Government is the reason the LNP is not out in front.

    The last time a Federal Government won a seat from the Opposition at a by-election was in December 1920. That pits history against the LNP.

    In my opinion, the primary votes of the ALP and the Greens will both collapse, which will leave the by-election on a knife-edge, which I believe the very popular NLP candidate can win — remembering that Glasson outpolled the Little Shit 42% to 40% in September, with the little creep delivered his pay cheque by the Greenfilth (10%). It’s crucial that PUP isn’t fielding as Palmer delivered 2%+ in preferences to the Little Shit in September.

    If the Greens get 6% and the ALP 38%, which is my prediction, Glasson wins.

  21. sabrina

    There is a fair bit of scare campaign going on at Griifith around co-payment for GP visits. Dr Glasson has apparently backed away from his initial endorsement of this plan. There is a need for expertise like Dr Glasson’s in the parliament. But scare campaigns often sway less-informed voters away from making the rigt decision. At the end it seems the contest will be very tight.

  22. Armadillo

    Mh, you have managed to get Labor out to 1.12 in the space of a few minutes – get on it buddy.

  23. Barbara Le Masle

    Go Dr Glasson,

    What a gentleman & a decent humanitarian person he is!!! Let’s hope sanity prevails!

  24. Armadillo

    At the end it seems the contest will be very tight.

    It’s certainly not a 1.12 to 6.00 battle as suggested.

  25. Honesty

    It could be a hurry up to TA, you have no time to waste or lefties to win over, MAKE YOUR MARK and die with your legacy!

  26. Tom

    Armadillo, what are your true odds?

  27. Habib

    I reckon it may surprise, punters don’t like being dragged back to the polls over a dummy spit. How on earth yet another Labor plaintiff lawyer is regarded as being electable has me buggered. Then again an earwax-eating sociopathic narcissist managed to get up. Glasson ran a good campaign last time, and seems a decent cove despite his trade union background. PUP’s not running so that vote should go to Glasson, with minimal leakage of preferences. West End will go with the Greens as usual, but the preferences will mostly go to the pettifogging princess. At the current price I reckon I’ll have a taste on Dr Bill, could be a nice earner. Hopefully Lightbulb Head will turn up to campaign, that’s got to be worth a few points to the LNP. If he brings the Slovene Slag it’ll be in the bag.

  28. tomix

    As might be expected, the AEC has almost completely failed to advertise the election date and that pre-polling has been open to all comers since the 20th. January.

  29. GarryMc

    So many people clutching at straws. Bill Grasson might be popular, but his government is rapidly losing popularity. If the choice is a doctor saying one thing about Medicare, and his party something different, I know which I’d believe. Abott wil probably drag down his vote, it’s a likely labour seat on ‘tradition’, and Govts don’t usually win after an election because the they sense the unpopular moves already in train.
    And none here has given any credit to the Labor candidate. You don’t think she hasher own strengths? And it seems that conservative think very few women ‘rate’ ta cabinet position. I predict this prejudice will cost conservatives. The dark-side of (many) conservative is their willingness to let their prejudices rule when opportunity is knocking, i.e. on women, and climate change. Both will cost.

  30. srr

    But dear sir, only ALP types get a Rhodes Scholar ship gong, and following the English tradition, both the PM and his minister for communications, the Left Honourable Malcolm Turnbull, have to also be …..

    Paying attention are we?

    polite attention, not staring, but as the rest of that comment and others of mine scattered around the cat indicate, yes, I am paying attention and wondering why so may keep wandering off, and pointing at trolls and unicorns instead.

  31. srr

    AEC + Legal Betting + Bookies ‘Mates’ = we’re very late for democracy’s wake.

  32. Armadillo

    Armadillo, what are your true odds?

    What the market decides Tom. However in this case, you would have to think anything around 2/1 to 3/1 would be a reasonable bet from a punters perspective. Then again, from my perspective you only need to look at ‘the book’ and it dictates what you should do. The book has no feelings or favourites. It is simply what it is – a book.

    I’d reckon Glasson is worth a go at those odds – they are wrong. It’s much closer than the odds suggest.

  33. Squirrel

    Even if there is a substantial swing away from the Government (entirely possible in these fickle, have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too, times) I trust they will just dust themselves off and get on with the crucial task of framing their first Budget.

  34. jupes

    The only decision I absolutely agonized over was who to put last and 2nd last?

    Greens last always.

  35. Ed

    Even if there is a substantial swing away from the Government (entirely possible in these fickle, have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too, times) I trust they will just dust themselves off and get on with the crucial task of framing their first Budget.

    I can’t think why there might be a swing away from the government.
    Perhaps they should ask their Ambassador for Women, Natasha Stott-Despoja, what she thinks.

  36. ar

    It is possible that Terrigrub is an exceptional candidate.

    Nah, another cookie cutter candidate with standard leftist speech impediment.

    Why do so many leftist politicians have speech impediments?

  37. Crossie

    I can’t think why there might be a swing away from the government.
    Perhaps they should ask their Ambassador for Women, Natasha Stott-Despoja, what she thinks.

    I am mystified why that vapid woman got the nod. Why isn’t Tony rewarding his own supporters? If this continues he won’t have many at the next election.

  38. Alfonso

    Those compulsory voters have a gut feeling about who will send them more cheques in the mail.
    Only when a govt is in chaos , see Gillard, will that not be the primary voting motivation.

  39. johno

    Perhaps they should ask their Ambassador for Women, Natasha Stott-Despoja, what she thinks.

    Or the high profile economic adviser, Greg Combet, that they appointed.

    Not to mention Abbott pushing for a racist amendment to the Constitution.

    Or his failure to hold the Left’s ABC to account.

    Serves them right if they don’t win Griffith.

    I hope it serves as a wake up call if there is a Senate re-run in WA.

    That one matters.

  40. Des Deskperson

    On the issue of the performance of the current government, I was speaking separately to two former public service colleagues the other day.

    These two have little in common. On is an SES employee, the other a senior middle manager. One works in policy, the other in programme manager. One is almost certainly a Labor voter, the other may be a swinger.

    Yet they both made remarkably similar points about the, err, approach of the new Government:

    apart from very broad statements, their Ministers have given very little indication of how they expect policies and programmes to be implemented

    attempts to coax guidance from Ministers and their offices have generally been unsuccessful. Briefs are not returned, or if they are, contain little useful feedback

    in order to keep things ticking over, public servants are having to, as they say, wing it, providing advice and making decisions that they hope are consistent with what the government wants.

    In other words, the Government may have issues with the implementation of its programmes in detail. I’m mindful here that the Government does appear to be making progress in key areas and that it has only been in power for five month (although there’s an old public service saying that, whether its a new government or a new promotee, there are no excuses after six months). Anyway, I thought their comments might be of interest.

  41. james

    The only thing stranger than Abbotts left wing behavior is expecting left wingers to change their mind about him.

    They hate him.

    They have been told to hate him and view him as the most right wing PM ever for three years.

    Some of them have gone through their entire university education with hate posters of him on ever wall and bile from every teachers mouth.

    They hate him with a white hot hate because he represents everything they have been taught to despise. A white, middle class respectable catholic family man.

    As far as the left is concerned even by being alive Abbott is “oppressing” them, let alone by being PM.

  42. lotocoti

    Both sides have been robo-calling daily, which gets a little counter-productive after the fourth time.
    The ALP has a larger street presence too.
    Just to make sure we good burghers are left in no doubt as to the identity of that slag who rings three times between 1630 and 1830 every fucking day.

  43. Shelley

    O/T – do I do it, shall I put myself through it or go for a walk? ‘It’ being subjecting myself to an hour of Insiders?

  44. Crossie

    They hate him with a white hot hate because he represents everything they have been taught to despise. A white, middle class respectable catholic family man.

    I work in a large educational institution and have been to two meetings recently where the anti- Abbott bile was on full show. Libs better get used to it, stop playing the inclusiveness game and get on with what they promised to do and, even more importantly, what their supporters expect them to do. The critics will never be appeased but the supporters will be turned off if this continues.

  45. Crossie

    Shelley, my usual advice would be to go for a walk but then there is the curiosity as to what will be said in light of the storm of criticism is the past week.

  46. tomix

    The street presence the LNP does have is very tame, lame, and PC. They covered power poles, walls and bus shelters with posters at the 1975 election in Griffith and held the seat easily.

    Favorites were: Give Shitlam the Arse, Stop WHITLAm, and Goughs Going? Great!

  47. Shelley

    Well, curiosity did get the better of me and 5 minutes into it, their Insiders did not disappoint. The monologue they opened with contained all the expected ABC/left version of the week’s events i.e. RAN allegations of abuse etc. I will stick around to listen to Eric Abetz, but then I will hit the off button.
    Just. Not. Worth. It.

  48. Tom

    Niki Savva thinks Glasson will lose. Dennis Atkins thinks he’ll win. Don’t attach too much importance to history. As Atkins points out, lots of history has been overturned in the past few years.

  49. The urge building even in some Labor loyalists to give Rudd a thorough whacking is no longer there. The anger has been spent. Abbott is making some of the tough calls he promised to make, the ABC-GetUp Propaganda Machine has been vomiting its faeculent stream, and Labor is going to pick up a small percentage because of that.

    Glasson was always going to find his job harder this time around.

  50. Winston Smith

    srr, the current cockup with the Libs is because they’ve been targeted and infiltrated by the Left. It’s what the Left does. Same as the AEC. I bet if you were to listen in to the phones, you’d find some very odd conversations.

  51. Andrew

    Stupid post. It was going to be extremely tough for an incumbent government to win such a by-election. Historically, a government has only won a seat off an opposition in a by-election once. Winning Griffith would be like the Labor Party taking the seat of Higgins in Melbourne off the Liberals in a by-election.

  52. james

    Winning any election is going to be difficult for Abbott now.

    I knew the hate was coming, I saw them preparing it in the years of opposition, but it still shocks to see just how mindlessly and passionately Lefties can hate.

    And Abbott hasn’t even done much yet.

    The left is so much more entrenched now in the media and education system than they were under Howard.

    If you thought the blind furious deranged hatred aimed at our last liberal PM was bad, you haven’t seen anything yet.

    Unless something actually gets done this time around any vaguely recognizable conservative will have a Bugger of a time winning a majority in the future.

  53. tomix

    Winning Griffith would be like the Labor Party taking the seat of Higgins in Melbourne off the Liberals in a by-election.

    Stupid analogy. Griffith is very winnable. The Libs just aren’t trying.

  54. Squirrel

    “Alfonso

    #1174957, posted on February 2, 2014 at 7:23 am

    Those compulsory voters have a gut feeling about who will send them more cheques in the mail.
    Only when a govt is in chaos , see Gillard, will that not be the primary voting motivation.”

    This was largely what I had in mind – the magic pudding/cargo cult mentality, together with the media theme of the Abbott Government being a bunch of do-nothing stumble-bums.

  55. Armadillo

    Lotocoti and Tomix, I’m assuming you are both in Griffith? Has the LNP been doing much advertising? You would assume that they would have a war chest and would be waiting for this final week? Anyone know who PUP are preferencing?

    I ended up having a bit of a ‘speckie’ yesterday @ 6 bucks (now 5 bucks). As I said up thread, I think those odds are overly generous (but they would only be reflecting the book). Not saying Glasson can win, only that my guess is the odds will end up more in the 2 to 3 dollar range by the end of the week. If they get under 2 bucks then it’s probably an indication there is some polling reflecting it’s going to be closer than those odds reflect – game on.

  56. CR

    PUP not contesting this time.

  57. Armadillo

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2014/griffith/

    Wow. Anthony Ackroyd is running. Long time since I heard that name.

  58. tomix

    LNP have large billboard ads on Ipswich Rd. Woolloongabba and Wynnum Rd. Norman Park ALP has a good site opposite the Gabba in Stanley St.
    Driving around, there seems to be a lot more ALP advertising in front yards. Other way around last time.The ALP claims to have more members in Griffith than any other Qld seat.

    One interesting thing. There are 11 candidates. No one is preferencing Glasson. The ALP has drawn 6 or 7.
    Glasson has drawn 11 and his ticket is 11 down to 1. Very easy for the disengaged voter.
    Katter party drew 10 i.e. LNP second preference. Greens drew position 2 on the ballot paper.

  59. Armadillo

    Glasson has drawn 11 and his ticket is 11 down to 1.

    The reverse donkey vote eh? There has gotta be an advertisement in that somewhere.

  60. stackja

    Griffith voters have a choice, good TA or bad ALP.

  61. Bear Necessities

    The best swings (>10%) to Glasson last year were around Bulimba, Hawthorne, Camp Hill. These areas contain many small business owners, executives who have had to deal with Carbon Tax, Penalty rates etc. Forget about West End were the ferals live (e.g. Jihad Jackie Trad). It will come down to areas such as Cannon Hill and Greenslopes if Glasson can pull a victory.

  62. Chris M

    What a gentleman & a decent humanitarian person he is!

    I heard he was previously the boss of the Australian doctors cartel?

  63. srr

    I heard he was previously the boss of the Australian doctors cartel?

    interesting comment, Chris M (and Winston Smith at 10:52 am), when you see that Shorten and known Labor names came (lied Abbott and Campbell weren’t around to support Glasson), and went, but Labor’s bearly known Shadow Health Minister, as been there helping the Labor Union Lawyer chick, for what, about a week…curiouser and curiouser…

  64. srr

    Sorry, I gave the incorrect title, it’s, “opposition health spokesperson Catherine King”, who has been hands on help for the Labor chick.

    Not an excuse, just a sad fact, that I really couldn’t be bothered keeping up with official titles and rules after Labor’s 6 years of insane reinventions of rules and paragraph long titles for dicks who only existed to screw things.

  65. Crossie

    Wow. Anthony Ackroyd is running. Long time since I heard that name.

    That would be Anthony Ackroyd of the “I don’t want to piss in your pocket in any shape or form” fame. Still funny.

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