Evidence based policy: Plain packaging

Nicola Roxon’s plain packaging laws just got another kicking. This time by two European academics Ashok Kaul and Michael Wolf. It isn’t a pretty sight.

A key stated objective of the Australian Plain Packaging Act 2011 is to influence smoking prevalence, in particular of minors. We use the Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) data set on minors, (that is, Australians aged 14 to 17 years) over the time period January 2001 to December 2013 to analyze whether there is evidence that this goal has been achieved. We carry out a statistical trend analysis to study the (possible) effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence of minors in Australia. More specifically, we fit a linear time trend that explains well the fact that observed smoking prevalence has declined steadily over the last 13 years. Two informative analyses help to draw conclusions on the (actual) effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence of Australian minors. First, we look at the year of data before plain packaging was introduced, which happened in December 2012. Second, we compute confidence intervals around the estimated treatment effects (that is, around the deviations from the fitted trend line) from 12/2012 on. Both analyses fail to find any evidence for an actual plain packaging effect on Australians aged 14 to 17 years. Several reasonable variations to our methodology are discussed. All of these would only result in findings even more indicative of an absence of any plain packaging effect.

Oh dear.

Plain packaging

Plain packaging – just another failed Labor policy.

This entry was posted in Hypocrisy of progressives, Take Nanny down. Bookmark the permalink.

105 Responses to Evidence based policy: Plain packaging

  1. Roberto

    Why am I not surprised?

  2. Steve R W

    If i collect modern day cigarette packets and use the images to make a Mosaic, can i apply for an arts grant?

  3. H B Bear

    Oh Nanny Roxon, you have let us down.

  4. ar

    Funny how everything Labor did was packaged as something “big”… no one was buying that either…

  5. .

    Steve R W
    #1238699, posted on March 25, 2014 at 6:50 pm
    If i collect modern day cigarette packets and use the images to make a Mosaic, can i apply for an arts grant?

    All kinds of arts grants!

  6. JC

    Lord theyre fucking useless. Just useless. And no, not more useless than bull tits, even more so.

    Harry Clarke was a huge proponent of plan packaging. How did that work out Harry, you goofball.

  7. Infidel Tiger

    I expect Abbott and his band of freedom loving warriors to repeal this disgusting infringement on property rights any moment. I also expect my shit to taste like ambrosia.

  8. JMH

    Of course, it’s just another Liebor failed policy. What else should we expect.

    I’m an out of the age group smoker and I have reviewed my position with regard to the so-called literature that smoking is really, really bad. Why? Because I believe everything now points to the science being far from settled! I question everything related to “science”. It seems passive smoking is no longer the bogeyman previously rammed down our throats, therefore, it stands to reason there is more bogus “science” out there in relation to the evils of smoking. I thank the “scientists” glued so emphatically to the global warming religion for my awakening.

  9. Rabz

    So, no ‘clear air’ on this one, either?

    Idiots.

  10. sabrina

    Longer term trend remain to be seen, but difficult to understand why that would change as a consequence of plain packaging. I suspect it has increased the illicit market in tobacco, and also more searches at the airports of passengers returning from Asia. It w ill also be interesting to see the production data from the local manufacturers during the period.

    Nicola Roxon was a dud minister, retired after riding the gravy train.

  11. Stephen of Glasshouse

    Not surprised. Another winning hand in lay down misere stupid..

  12. Steve R W

    If you make it to the age of 70- 80 years plus, and have never smoked, would it be frowned upon to start smoking from that point in time?

    I see no problem at all. But that’s just me.

  13. Anto

    They have also now raised tobacco taxes so high that organised crime gangs are moving into the trade. If they keep on doing the same with alcohol taxes, it won’t be long before many are buying moonshine from the Bandidos, as well.

  14. Infidel Tiger

    If you make it to the age of 70- 80 years plus, and have never smoked, would it be frowned upon to start smoking from that point in time?

    Crazy if you don’t.

    A doctor once advised my 87yo Nana to give up fags. I should have tracked him down and beaten him to death with a cigar store Indian.

  15. Steve R W

    Anto.

    Making your own spirits is easy, but a learned craft that comes with instructions. Perfectly legal in NZ for the record, and no, you will not need to replicate the “still” you see on M.A.S.H

    I wont plug the company that sells the gear to make it happen.

    Shhhhh

  16. Stephen of Glasshouse

    Hit 70 and go for it imo. Good cigar..hmmm

  17. eb

    Hey, they passed a law. That’s a success in their book.

  18. Alfonso

    OT
    Abbott has had another PPL brain explosion that is even beyond the pathetic cultural cringe.
    Welcome back to the future of Sirs and Dames….
    The poor south sea island pom Kiwis couldn’t live without aping their betters…now it’s our turn.
    It says 1958 Tone.

  19. Steve R W

    I’ve yet to smoke a Cuban cigar.

    Maybe one day.

  20. Carpe Jugulum

    I’ve yet to smoke a Cuban cigar.

    It’s on my list of things to do.

    Until then i’ll stick with smoking Amandas.

  21. Andrew

    Funny how everything Labor did was packaged as something “big”… no one was buying that either…

    Correctamundo, AR. Was any one of their 500-odd pieces of legislation NOT marketed as a “great reform”? Including the ones that merely reversed their previous great reforms. Did they ever pass a minor amendment, or a procedural matter?

  22. Andrew of Randwick

    Regarding EBP – check out this gem from the Public Servants:

    In its advice on measuring costs and benefits in policy analysis, the Department of Finance and Administration (2006, Appendix II) underlines the importance of counting non-market improvements in the quality of life. In 1996, a group of eminent economists, including Nobel laureate, Kenneth Arrow, set down principles for good cost-benefit analysis, noting that: “Not all impacts of a decision can be quantified or expressed in dollar terms. Care should be taken to ensure that quantitative factors do not dominate important qualitative factors in decision making. (Arrow et al. 1996)

    In other words, “if you can’t get the numbers to work – just fudge it and say it is in the public interest” – no matter the costs, nor the loss of liberty, nor the increased paperwork nor the lack of any quantifiable benefits.

  23. Ubique

    Welcome back to the future of Sirs and Dames….

    Not a problem – simply give those to be awarded the top gongs the choice of being a Companion (AC) or a Knight or Dame (AK/AD). There’ll be a stampede for the latter.

    We’ve seen the same effect with the reintroduction of QC in Queensland. SC doesn’t hold a candle to it and the silks are trampling each other in the rush back to non-plebian titles. QC is sure to be adopted elsewhere, not including South Australia where the legal fraternity don’t deserve it and instead should disport themselves in pink shorts.

  24. candy

    I always thought it worth trying because it might stop some kids from taking up smoking in any serious way.

    So perhaps there are some very rare policies, that despite the existing “evidence”, are worth it because a great many people feel it’s the right thing to try because it’s socially very important? just asking.

  25. how can smokers be addicted but still responsive to minor changes in constraints such as information on brands?

  26. Sinclair Davidson

    Candy – its already illegal for individuals under the age of 18 to smoke. Enforce that law first before expropriating private property.

  27. Infidel Tiger

    I always thought it worth trying because it might stop some kids from taking up smoking in any serious way.

    Candy, they’ve been putting carcinogens in the delicious things for a hundred years and that hasn’t turned the kiddies off. As if some silly olive green wrapping will.

  28. johanna

    Yeah, rebellious teenagers who adore Goth, heavy metal, shoot-em-up computer games and images of monsters on their walls (or even tattoed on their skin) were really going to be turned off by Nanny Roxon’s gruesome images.

    But, the important thing was the vibe, the caring, the symbolism. And if a few property rights and personal freedoms had to be trampled along the way – meh.

    The price rises have had some effect, as well as being an absolute gift to both organised and disorganised crime. Petty crims who rob grocery stores always go for the fags; people are growing their own (which is, unbelievably, illegal); chop-chop and illegally imported cigs abound; and no doubt a few Customs officers have had their retirement savings enhanced.

    Another outstanding achievement by quite possibly the worst bunch of malicious, corrupt incompetents ever to inhabit the Treasury benches.

  29. In 1996, a group of eminent economists, including Nobel laureate, Kenneth Arrow, set down principles for good cost-benefit analysis, noting that: “Not all impacts of a decision can be quantified or expressed in dollar terms.

    Hayek remarked in 1974 that we focus to much on what factors we can measure rather than what factors are important:

    We know: of course, with regard to the market and similar social structures, a great many facts which we cannot measure and on which indeed we have only some very imprecise and general information.

    And because the effects of these facts in any particular instance cannot be confirmed by quantitative evidence, they are simply disregarded by those sworn to admit only what they regard as scientific evidence: they thereupon happily proceed on the fiction that the factors which they can measure are the only ones that are relevant.

  30. Stephen of Glasshouse

    To paraphrase Churchill, too many rules and people ignore them and develop contempt for the law.
    Hell, I do..

  31. Tintarella di Luna

    We’ve seen the same effect with the reintroduction of QC in Queensland. SC doesn’t hold a candle to it

    I don’t know — first they were Queer ones then Silly ones, does it matter if they go back to being Queer — still works but

  32. Zaphod

    If you make it to the age of 70- 80 years plus, and have never smoked, would it be frowned upon to start smoking from that point in time?

    Your family would consider it the first sign of dementia.

  33. It’s on my list of things to do.

    Until then i’ll stick with smoking Amandas.

    Have you asked her yet?

  34. Your family would consider it the first sign of dementia.

    Not necessarily; smoking may be protective against Parkinson’s disease.

  35. C.L.

    A doctor once advised my 87yo Nana to give up fags. I should have tracked him down and beaten him to death with a cigar store Indian.

    Tangential topic post:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV16ECAAACM

    Labor would want Jerry arrested.

  36. What Johanna said,

    And now desensitised to graphic images of mangled limbs…

  37. Zaphod

    Not necessarily; smoking may be protective against Parkinson’s disease.

    Trade off being, you stink.

  38. samuel j

    Another expensive failed Labor policy

  39. C.L.

    Trade off being, you stink.

    Diddums.

  40. Ant

    Nice one, Nicola.

    Yet another dud in a party full of them.

    Has there ever been a more incompetent, destructive and wasteful bunch of bunglers in this country’s history?

    The real joke, though, is that they think they’re the smart ones.

    Damn fool idiots, the lot of them.

  41. nerblnob

    Yeah, rebellious teenagers who adore Goth, heavy metal, shoot-em-up computer games and images of monsters on their walls (or even tattoed on their skin) were really going to be turned off by Nanny Roxon’s gruesome images.

    Exactly. The packages are anything but “plain”. They’re quite gaudy from a distance. Given that the general long-term trend in people taking up smoking has been “down” , surely anything done during the downward slope can be claimed as the cause?

    Secondly, since so much of the cigarette trade has now gone underground (and not just in Australia) – how do they even know how many are smoking , or indeed “taking it up” ?

  42. JMH

    Trade off being, you stink.

    Not so. I’ve had people say to me words to this effect ‘Bull. You don’t smoke. I’ve never detected a tobacco odour on you’. There is one simple reason for this. I smoke outside. I roll my own. I do not smoke in enclosed spaces such as my vehicle. I don’t allow smoking inside the house.

  43. Fred Furkenburger

    I must say that as a retailer in my particular line of business I do applaud the government for their persistent CPI increases in the excise in alcoholic beverages and their wonderful extra taxes on pre-mixed drinks. They have proven to be a wonderful educator from the point of elasticity of demand. That point being that if a consumer can get their desired products (or perhaps one which comes close to matching that product) at a cheaper price from another supplier they will do so. And they will do so regardless of legality! So as a supplier of products which can be used to make the alcohol of your choice each increase in excise only serves to “build my business”. I do worry about how long the government is going to take to realise that they are just “pricing themselves out of the alcohol business! And the sad thing for a lot of younger people who may think Labor is a wonderful party who “look after the poor in society” it was a Labor party government (Paul Keating) who brought in that indexation!

  44. nerblnob

    I roll my own.

    Never smoked, but partner does, and I always found the smoke of tailor-mades stung my throat and eyes. Not so with rollies. They never bothered me at all.

    They don’t have that saltpetre or whatever causes it, and they don’t keep burning when left in the ashtray, possibly the most annoying thing.

  45. Zaphod

    There is one simple reason for this. I smoke outside. I roll my own. I do not smoke in enclosed spaces such as my vehicle. I don’t allow smoking inside the house.

    You have developed strategies that prevent you smelling like an ashtray; good onya.
    Many don’t. You usually know if you’re in an elevator with a pariah who’s just ducked out for a durrie.

  46. candy

    As if some silly olive green wrapping will.

    I don’t smoke IT, and when I see those pictures I feel a bit sick. I don’t want to look at it.
    So I think the motive, the hoped for result, of the policy is worthwhile.

  47. Zaphod

    “It was the Howard government, and Tony Abbott as health minister, who introduced the graphic health warnings on tobacco products in 2006. This constituted warnings of 30 per cent on the front of the pack and 90 per cent on the rear of the pack. ”
    -Andrew Southcott MP

  48. C.L.

    Don’t be silly, Candy.

  49. C.L.

    “It was the Howard government, and Tony Abbott as health minister, who introduced the graphic health warnings on tobacco products in 2006. This constituted warnings of 30 per cent on the front of the pack and 90 per cent on the rear of the pack. ”

    And Howard was an idiot too.

    A bigger idiot.

    He’s the one who stole guns promising no more gun deaths. LOL.

  50. Infidel Tiger

    “It was the Howard government, and Tony Abbott as health minister, who introduced the graphic health warnings on tobacco products in 2006. This constituted warnings of 30 per cent on the front of the pack and 90 per cent on the rear of the pack. ”

    Wow, you’ve just discovered that the Libs are duplicitous wankers who should be beaten to a pulp. You’ll be able to tell your arsehole from your elbow soon.

  51. JC

    Candy

    You’re being an airhead this evening. Enough with the female airheadedness at the Cat, at least for the rest of the night.

  52. Gab

    Another expensive failed Labor policy

    Correct! Actually had they placed positive messages on the packs like the one stating “Quitting will improve your health”, a series of positive messages, I think that would go further to get people to stop/not start up smoking than the negative messages. As if smokers don’t already know the potential harm already!

  53. C.L.

    Wasn’t there an Australian Story in which Roxon waxed emotional about her Dad and her great pride in plain packaging? LOL.

  54. Zaphod

    He’s the one who stole guns promising no more gun deaths. LOL.

    He stole guns?
    Oh, I thought WE bought them, and then destroyed them.

  55. Zaphod

    Wow, you’ve just discovered that the Libs are duplicitous wankers who should be beaten to a pulp.

    Er, no, I already knew that. Seems many here don’t though.

  56. JC

    Wasn’t there an Australian Story in which Roxon waxed emotional about her Dad and her great pride in plain packaging? LOL.

    Yea there was. It was fucking disgusting. Fatty von Roxon ran with the restriction on property rights because her freaking dad died. It was the most pathetic self-absorbed disgusting crap I’ve ever seen on Australian TV. She was kissing and cuddling when she and the rest of those leftwing pikers in her office heard the High Court decision allowing this theft.

    Every single one of those senior Liar Party figures had some serious psychotic problems they never dealt with.

  57. JMH

    Dead right, Zaphod. As a smoker, I am easily offended by cigarette stench, particularly in open places such as the alcove where my mail box is located.

    I think the gist of this conversation is:- Gov’t butt out! It’s my choice to smoke. I have no intention of forcing my choice upon others, ergo, don’t tell me how I should live my life. I am not a law-breaker. I think all of us are fed up to the back teeth with being monitored into submission.

  58. JC

    Zap

    Fuck off, you’re not funny, nor witty.

  59. politichix

    Saw an olive green pack for the first time a couple of weeks ago and it seemed the hideous disease picture was not as prominent. But seriously who buys cigarettes based on the pretty packet which you can’t see anyway because it’s locked up in a cabinet behind the counter. I mean FFS!

  60. Eddystone

    I’d like to see the evidence on Howard’s gun laws given some publicity!

  61. JC

    Saw an olive green pack for the first time a couple of weeks ago and it seemed the hideous disease picture was not as prominent. But seriously who buys cigarettes based on the pretty packet which you can’t see anyway because it’s locked up in a cabinet behind the counter. I mean FFS!

    I buy the occasional pack. you just ignore it. Smokers would be well used to it buy now.

    The fucking morons… the complete retards don’t even realize what they’ve done. They’ve basically monopolized the tobacco market and stopped R&D in its tracks. The cig makers don’t give a shit about creating new products that are less harmful as the market is now shut down to competition. The most prized product… far more than the IPhone.. would be coming out with the safe cig. Forget the R&D into that now.

  62. JMH

    I’ve often wondered whether those ‘scary’ images have spent a little time in Photoshop. Nothing would surprise me these days.

  63. Des Deskperson

    ‘Wasn’t there an Australian Story in which Roxon waxed emotional about her Dad and her great pride in plain packaging? LOL. ‘

    Text is here!

    http://www.abc.net.au/austory/content/2012/s3576698.htm

    If you’re needing an emetic, check out Bonge’s gushing and suck-holing

  64. john constantine

    how about a bit more study into the japanese paradox,where our whale munching mates smoke like chimneys,but don’t die of cancer the way roxon would have us believe.

    might sm0ke half a dozen rollies a year,like em,don’t look for ‘em.

  65. Both analyses fail to find any evidence for an actual plain packaging effect on Australians aged 14 to 17 years

    Sinclair, if plain packaging has no effect, why did the law so upset big tobacco?

    Packaging should have some impact on sales for otherwise the practice at hand would not have survived in market competition? A tobacco company would have won market share by launching its own cheaper plain-packaged brand if fancier brand based packaging is of no marketing value.

  66. C.L.

    Sinclair, if plain packaging has no effect, why did the law so upset big tobacco?

    Because it was a restriction of their fundamental commercial and property rights.

    Next question.

  67. JC

    Sinclair, if plain packaging has no effect, why did the law so upset big tobacco?

    For a couple of reasons the major one being property rights, but like everyone else, how ere they to know it would have the reverse impact going forward and locked the market to monopoly behavior?

  68. C.L.

    I recall that at one point Roxon – the worst Attorney-General in any jurisdiction in Australian history – objected to the letters “AUS” appearing near the filter of the cigarettes.

    She was a seriously disturbed galoot.

  69. C.L.

    Oh yeah – one more thing.

    As a fanatical Emily’s Lister, Roxon believed in abortion at any point of gestation.

    But she was “passionate” about getting rid of the Benson & Hedges crest.

    These people are moral garbage and quite literally disturbed.

  70. JC

    Packaging should have some impact on sales for otherwise the practice at hand would not have survived in market competition?

    You’re missing the point that everyone is in the same boat, so it sort of crystallizes the market and kills any need for competition. You’re also missing the point that tob firms did try markets out with cheap brands.

    A tobacco company would have won market share by launching its own cheaper plain-packaged brand if fancier brand based packaging is of no marketing value.

    That’s only true when branding can be displayed and markets segmented to brands.

  71. Infidel Tiger

    Sinclair, if plain packaging has no effect, why did the law so upset big tobacco?

    Because consumers now choose the cheapest nastiest smokes in the biggest pack. Brands have been made obsolete.

    Before plain packaging you wouldn’t be caught dead smoking a pack of Stradbrokes or Holiday 50’s. Now you can smoke them with the same air and authority as a seasoned Peter Stuyvesant Filter smoker. It’s not god damn right.

  72. Infidel Tiger

    But she was “passionate” about getting rid of the Benson & Hedges crest.

    Bigoted bitch. She should have been section 18c’d for that alone.

  73. JC

    Because consumers now choose the cheapest nastiest smokes in the biggest pack. Brands have been made obsolete.

    Are they though. How would anyone know about other brands other than the ones they smoked.

    I smoke (occasionally ) B&H Smooth. I wouldn’t have a clue what other brands there are other than the top of the line names like Malboro Reds/Lights, Pete Sty.

  74. Infidel Tiger

    JC, shops can still advertise a pricing list with names and prices of the smokes.

    It’s simple economics that plebs will choose a pack 0f 50 floor sweepings over the rich blend of choice tobacco rolled on the small of a princesses back.

  75. JC

    JC, shops can still advertise a pricing list with names and prices of the smokes.

    Can they? I’ll look.

    It’s simple economics that plebs will choose a pack 0f 50 floor sweepings over the rich blend of choice tobacco rolled on the small of a princesses back.

    I’m sure, but my point is that the plebs were already in that segment and know the cheap disgusting knock offs.

    My point is that it’s frozen the market now. I think few people will shift their brand buying habits because they simply don’t know what’s out there. If you smoke the well known brands, you’ll stick with those. If you smoke cheaper brands you stay there with the old cheap brand.,

  76. C.L.

    Roxon’s other achievement is creating a massive “illegal” cigarette business.

    Tens of millions are now imported into Australia annually.

  77. JC

    CL

    I deliberately linked to that other pic in an attempt to stop you from terrorizing us with yours. I obviously didn’t succeed.

    I’m not opening up your link, just so you know.

  78. rebel with cause

    I do miss cigarette advertising. Motor racing hasn’t been the same since they banned it – the cigarette companies really new how to do a good livery. And I wouldn’t have a clue what the prize is for rugby league now, but I do remember the old Winfield Cup. They don’t make trophies like that anymore.

  79. JC

    Beer ads make up for it. I really like this ad for instance.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_q5cODlFuY

    The gals are gorgeous.

  80. Gab

    WARNING: Clicking on any of the above links from JC, CL and IT is dangerous to your health.

  81. David

    A couple of points on the research

    1) Philip Morris International provided the funding for this research.

    2) Is this really supposed to be rigorous analysis? Fit a linear trend to the data, which doesn’t look all the linear from figure 2 (2010-2012 for example) and which just happens to nicely coincide with the the data at around the time of the policy change and voila, no effect!

    I don’t agree with this policy, better to just keep raising prices, but let’s not rely on weak empirical evidence.

  82. Docket62

    C.L. “He’s the one who stole guns promising no more gun deaths. LOL.”

    Actually, he didn’t promise anything of the sort. You’ll remember that Port Arthur was the trigger for this legislation. I’ve been a gun owner in the past, and faced the business end in the job, years ago. There is no place in our society for these weapons. America is a prime example. Try matching their homicide rate (gun involved) with hand to hand combat… Ask whether Hoddle street (the names of offenders should never, ever be mentioned ) would have occurred without the rifle? No, firearms make it too easy to do serious harm quickly and more importantly -from a distance. The cowards that commit crimes with weapons don’t have the stomach for close quarter stuff, so I agree with the ban. Howard passed a necessary piece of legislation that removed tens of thousands of weapons from the street. You try buying a military weapon in Australia today…. Not easy. And don’t give me the sanctimonious bullshit about driving the trade under the table, it was always there. Bad people will always find ways, but average people won’t have access to weapons to commit crimes of passion. (Over 90% of murders are committed by persons known to the deceased)… At least they won’t have access to a semi automatic 7.62mm rifle with 50 rounds.

  83. Docket62

    And on a brighter note…….

    Can someone suggest to libs law repeal section, that this one goes on the list? I miss the Marlboro ads….. And Hoges saying ‘anyhow, have a Winfield “. ……

  84. Mark from Melbourne

    So for this failed thought bubble (who’d a thunk it?) we deferred signing FTAs with South Korea and China for a couple of years???

    FMD.

  85. Zaphod

    Can someone suggest to libs law repeal section, that this one goes on the list? I miss the Marlboro ads…

    http://mobile.news.com.au/entertainment/
    celebrity-life/marlboro-man-eric-lawson-has-died-of-lung-cancer-aged-72/story-fn907478-1226812210761

  86. nerblnob

    72′s not a bad innings.
    I’m pretty sure everyone accepts that smoking increases your risk of lung cancer and other diseases.
    Exactly how much is lost in a mess of poorly-worded quotes. 4% or 400% is meaningless if you don’t know what the original number was and what it relates to. Is it say, like riding a motorbike compared to driving a car? Like an older guy riding a motorbike compared to a young guy driving a car? Like fishing off the rocks compared to fishing off the pier? Maybe it’s not as bad as any of those. Maybe it’s worse.

    It gets even worse with concepts like “secondary smoking”.

  87. Sinclair Davidson

    Fit a linear trend to the data, which doesn’t look all the linear from figure 2 (2010-2012 for example) and which just happens to nicely coincide with the the data at around the time of the policy change and voila, no effect!

    If the data were non-linear then we’d expect to see the deviations from a linear trend to be statistically significantly different from zero. That is that exactly what they test and that is the graph that I reproduced.

    I expect all the criticisms that lefties and progressive make against the Phil Jones Test to be raised here too.

  88. Zaphod

    72′s not a bad innings.
    I’m pretty sure everyone accepts that smoking increases your risk of lung cancer and other diseases.

    My brother made it to 48 . Died on his birthday.
    Morphine pump helped, a bit.

  89. Cynicmonster

    If i collect modern day cigarette packets and use the images to make a Mosaic, can i apply for an arts grant?

    Stick the words ‘climate’ and ‘change’ somewhere in your application and you will be guaranteed funding.

    JC, shops can still advertise a pricing list with names and prices of the smokes.

    They most certainly can. I check the board regularly for any discounts that might be available.

    The change in packaging did not affect my rate of smoking, or the brand I smoke. However the price certainly has and I have managed to cut back a lot. Unfortunately it will affect those on lower incomes or less education more and it is not surprising to see an increase in illegal tobacco use. A recent drug bust pulled up 35, 000 tobacco plants. Don’t say it isn’t happening.

  90. Dean

    or there’s this study in the MJA which shows it is having an effect:
    Association between tobacco plain packaging and Quitline calls: a population-based, interrupted time-series analysis

  91. Diogenes

    Carpe Jugulum
    wrt smoking Amandas – I was the same untuil I got some nice cubans duty free.
    Now Amandas taste like old rope in comparison

  92. Anto

    My brother made it to 48 . Died on his birthday.
    Morphine pump helped, a bit.

    Our third child died in childbirth. What’s your point, doughboy?

  93. .

    Zaphod
    #1239422, posted on March 26, 2014 at 9:08 am
    72′s not a bad innings.
    I’m pretty sure everyone accepts that smoking increases your risk of lung cancer and other diseases.

    My brother made it to 48 . Died on his birthday.
    Morphine pump helped, a bit.

    Lefty anecdote lottery again.

    What is wrong with these freaks?

  94. .

    … At least they won’t have access to a semi automatic 7.62mm rifle with 50 rounds.

    Bullshit. Sorry but this is bullshit.

  95. .

    The change in packaging did not affect my rate of smoking, or the brand I smoke. However the price certainly has and I have managed to cut back a lot. Unfortunately it will affect those on lower incomes or less education more and it is not surprising to see an increase in illegal tobacco use. A recent drug bust pulled up 35, 000 tobacco plants. Don’t say it isn’t happening.

    Excise tax alone contributed to many murders in the Vic. uplands where tobacco is farmed.

    The greed of politicians, mainly from the ALP, Greens and left of the LNP has contributed to murders.

  96. Rusty of the West

    Because they had a complicit media in the ABC, who would not ask simple questions like HOW is this law going to stop young people taking up smoking, they were able to pass a useless law, at best, which cost them nothing. The fact that it is now very easy to copy a smokes packet, makes it even easier for the black market people so less tax for the government and to keep on bumping up the price makes it worth their while to expand into this industry. Roxin wanted no part of answering any question other than to say that if it stops one its worth it. A useless idiot.

  97. malcolm

    1. funded by a tobacco company.
    2. ? peer reviewed. ? in a peer reviewed journal
    3. small sample sizes with large variation is sizes

  98. JCR

    nerblnob

    Re lung cancer rates. Cigarette smoking increases your chances of getting lung cancer by about 2000%. Cigar and pipe smokers have very much lower risks, as they rarely inhale the smoke (I was a pipe smoker for 17 years). Source is Geoffrey Kabat’s book, “Hyping Health Risks”. Kabat is an epidemiologist by trade. One of his studies was into passive smoking. He and another researcher were originally funded by the American Cancer Council (I think), but when the numbers coming out didn’t suit the propagandists, the Council stopped funding. This is where a tobacco company stepped in to provide funding, and is the report routinely dismissed by the anti-tobacco lobby because of that funding.

  99. Harry Clarke wrote on the effects of plan packaging saying that

    “Without offsetting tax increases the legislation will plausibly reduce prices.

    Depends on your theory of competition. does brand name competition lower the full price to buyers.

    Brands must do otherwise brands would not survive in competition with plain packaged cigarettes.

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