Tony’s Reign – a new market

I hadn’t noticed this before – Centrebet looks like it has a new market going. How long will Tony Abbott be PM for?

Tony's reign

That and the Leadership market suggests Abbott is safe until the 2016 election – or soon afterwards.

Is it too early to start speculating about a leadership change? Probably yes. But watch Malcolm Turnbull – if he throws a bone to the right in the next few weeks its on.

In the US when a political leader has stuffed to this extent, they tend to go on a “listening tour”. I think both Abbott and Joe Hockey need to go on such a tour and actually listen when the support base tells them want they want and what they don’t want.

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216 Responses to Tony’s Reign – a new market

  1. Infidel Tiger

    Stuff the listening tour.

    They should just read the Cat for 24 hours.

    If the tax changes aren’t grand in vision after the review, Abbott will be gone 2.31pm Mar 7th 2015.

  2. Gab

    They’re not listening n0w, they never will.

  3. 70s Playboy

    Gee, you’re all so critical.

    There’s no justice like angry mob justice

    We have to hand it to him for bringing down 3 Labor PMs, and there’s been a lot of achievements. Don’t we??

  4. 70s Playboy

    I feel like someone’s got to stand up for him…

  5. Gab

    there’s been a lot of achievements

    Please go ahead and list them. I’m curious.

  6. Sinclair Davidson

    He did say “No” to the auto- manufacturers, SPC and Qantas. For those of you who value stopping the boats, the boats have stopped.

  7. Viva

    Gee, you’re all so critical.

    We have to hand it to him for bringing down 3 Labor PMs, and there’s been a lot of achievements. Don’t we??

    You’d think so wouldn’t you. Talk about fair weather friends.

  8. Gab

    We have to hand it to him for bringing down 3 Labor PMs

    In hindsight, a one-legged dwarf with face AIDS who had just drowned a litter of kittens could have won the last election. That’s how much Labor was on the nose.

  9. 70s Playboy

    Hey Gab – this is not The Guardian website. We’re on the same side. Do I need to stand up for Tone here as well as to all my lunar lefty friends?

  10. James

    Who needs the Labor Opposition and Lefist media when we have the Cats doing all their dirty work!

  11. 70s Playboy

    Thanks Sinkers – you tell Gab

  12. 70s Playboy

    …and the renewable sector has been defunded

  13. Cato the Elder

    A new prayer (with no blasphemy intended)

    Preserve us, oh Lord, from Malcolm Turnbull.

  14. Gab

    He did say “No” to the auto- manufacturers, SPC and Qantas.

    After he said ‘no’ to Holden, he then spent millions in sorry money to help the poor half-starved but allegedly highly qualified unionized wukkas mangle other industries find other jobs.

    Okay, he said no to the other two, as it should be but that’s not an achievement, that’s just good policy – something we apparently pay them to do. And yes, Morrison has stopped the boats.

    What else?

  15. stackja

    Many here have unrealistic expectations.

  16. Sinclair Davidson

    …and the renewable sector has been defunded

    Well, not yet.

    By contrast, the carbon tax, the mining tax and 18c are still on the books. New taxes are coming and nothing that I can see has been done about debt and deficit.

  17. 70s Playboy

    And he has a very fit and toned body

  18. Gab

    You’d think so wouldn’t you. Talk about fair weather friends.

    When a friend goes off the rails into socialist land and breaks promises as well, you better believe it that I tell them so. What kind of friend would I be if I didn’t care enough to point out the error of his ways? A fair-weathered friend is one that just pisses in your pockets and never pulls you up when you’ve done the wrong thing.

    Not that I think politicians are my friends, like some here do.

  19. Infidel Tiger

    Many here have unrealistic expectations.

    Only in night clubs at 4am

    I do however not expect people who have been elected on a platform of lower spending and lower taxes to disappoint me quite so soon.

  20. Petros

    You’re right, Sinc. They were achievements. He showed such promise early on. For some reason he fluffed it with this budget.

  21. Senile Old Guy

    Many here have unrealistic expectations.

    stackja, for once, I agree with you. I, for one, had the unrealistic expectation that he would try to do what he promised: “cut, cuts, cuts” and “no surprises”.

    I won’t make that mistake again.

  22. Gab

    …and the renewable sector has been defunded

    Well, not yet.

    By contrast, the carbon tax, the mining tax and 18c are still on the books. New taxes are coming and nothing that I can see has been done about debt and deficit.

    Exactly. But yeah, the boats have been stopped.

    What else?

  23. 70s Playboy

    I’m a DJ by profession and I’ve seen quite a few pollies on the dance floor. I tell you Joe Hockey’s the best mover and shaker I’ve seen. You’ve got to like a pollie with Night Fever

  24. Eliza

    I have enjoyed reading the cats opinions over the years but am staggered at the way so many of your readers have become Abbott knockers and that also goes to you Mr Sinclair Davidson. Yes his budget has not met all your wishes and yes he has not sold what he has well, but please remember what the last seven years gave Australia and give Mr Abbott and his majority government some slack. Also the Abbott government has done a great job in regards to the boats, so please look to the positives.

  25. We’re on the same side. Do I need to stand up for Tone here as well as to all my lunar lefty friends?

    Speaking of arguing with lunar leftie friends, let me tell you what really pisses me off. I was actually doing a good job of winning some leftie friends across, particularly on the back of the Gillard-Rudd debacle and the NSW Labor/union corruption.

    Then the dickhead went and broke two key election promises for no good reason.

    Now they all just think he’s dishonest and deceitful, and that’s the end of the discussion. There’s nothing more to be said. From a political discussion point of view, it’s game over. What are you supposed to say? Gillard lied too? Yeah, right. That goes over like a lead balloon. I’ve been saying that Gillard lied for four fucking years. Labor already got punished for the carbon tax lie at the 2013 election. They can’t, and won’t, be punished for it twice. Gillard’s gone and Abbott’s still around, so her deception cannot be used to neutralise Abbott’s deception. That’s like Labor blaming everything on John Howard.

    So I’m mad at Abbott for torpedoing my hard- earned efforts and making all political discussions a no-go zone with anyone but conservatives.

  26. Viva

    Many here have unrealistic expectations.

    Yes. I have to say that the Cat has shown it does not represent the mainstream. Tony shouldn’t lose any sleep because some around here are displeased.

    Having said that I agree the selling of the budget has fallen short. But since this government came to power it has barely been given a chance to find its feet. The day after the election the press starting hyping an expenses scandal, then the Indonesian shit hit the fan, then the car industry folded then …. need I go on?

  27. Gab

    Oh he did reintroduce Australian Knighthoods to combat the budget emergency, so I guess there’s that.

  28. Lysander

    I wouldn’t support Malcolm even if he resigned, became an Independent (liberal) Liberal sitting inside Cabinet….oh, wait…

  29. Infidel Tiger

    I’m staggered that so many people have such low self worth and are prepared to be treated like shit.

  30. egg_

    Preserve us, oh Lord, from Malcolm Turnbull.

    From previous, Abbott’s lurched far enough Left, Lord Turnbull may as well be PM, and likely has better marketability now than Abbott; otherwise – shift back to the Right via Morisson as the current position is untenable with the electorate*, but Turnbull is the likely successor and a Cat commenter was rumouring of Abbott being a one-term PM and doing a handover.

    *The only judge that matters.

  31. Sinclair Davidson

    Yes his budget has not met all any of your wishes and yes he has not sold what he has well, but please remember what the last seven years gave Australia and give Mr Abbott and his majority government some slack.

    Fixed that.

    Mr Abbott and his majority government will be extracting more tax from my household than the previous Labor government did. Unless that situation changes quickly Mr Abbott and his majority government will be looking somewhat embarrassed when I ask the Ronald Reagan question, “Am I better off now than I was under the previous government”.

  32. Senile Old Guy

    Yes his budget has not met all your wishes and yes he has not sold what he has well, but please remember what the last seven years gave Australia and give Mr Abbott and his majority government some slack.

    I am so utterly sick of this pathetic defence. It is not our “wishes” but Abbott’s promises. These are entirely different things. And why do we have to give him “some slack” because the previous lot were terrible? It makes no sense at all.

    Also the Abbott government has done a great job in regards to the boats, so please look to the positives.

    The achievements of Morrison have been praised on the Cat on numerous occasions.

  33. Sinclair Davidson

    I’m staggered that so many people have such low self worth and are prepared to be treated like shit.

    Yep – battered wife voter syndrome.

  34. jupes

    For those of you who value stopping the boats …

    Isn’t that every sane person?

  35. Viva

    such low self worth and are prepared to be treated like shit.

    Better than indulging such personal grandiosity that you think Abbott owes you a personal apology for not meeting your expectations.

  36. To repeat, Labor already got punished for their lies and paid the price. They can’t get punished twice. The Coalition seem not to understand this.

  37. Lysander

    Yep – battered wife voter syndrome.

    mmmm now available at all fish and chips places

  38. Petros

    The polls have agreed with the Cats i.e. a loss of support for Abbott.

  39. you think Abbott owes you a personal apology for not meeting your expectations.

    what about for lying to me? Is that deserving of an apology?

  40. Sinclair Davidson

    Lysander – you’re thinking “deep fried”.

  41. jupes

    Oh he did reintroduce Australian Knighthoods to combat the budget emergency, so I guess there’s that.

    True. That was a hilarious smack in the face to lefties. Getting a vain lefty to accept the first one was comedy gold.

    Too bad he seems to have lost his comedy touch lately.

  42. Viva

    Come to think of it – why don’t we have a National Sorry Day just for aggrieved members of this forum?

  43. Infidel Tiger

    Better than indulging such personal grandiosity that you think Abbott owes you a personal apology for not meeting your expectations.

    He doesn’t have to apologise.

    A back rub and a reduction in taxation will suffice.

  44. Sinclair Davidson

    To be fair – we should add bringing back Knighthoods to the list of achievements. It cost the taxpayer nothing and caused lefty heads to explode.

  45. lem

    I’m staggered that so many people have such low self worth and are prepared to be treated like shit.

    Gotta agree. The place I hang out in is definitely not Labor Heartland, but Abbott is badly on the nose. These people are thinkers. They will change their votes. An opening for an alternate party is making way as the so-called left and right meet and are indistinguishable.

    I cite the European recent experience as evidence. Hope you’re listening Libs.

  46. Lysander

    No Petros; I haven’t loss support for Abbott – I am just witholding judgement to see how life is once these things kick in. And how the budget position ends up before next election.

    If things are really on the mend (or on the way) then we can start lobbying for real personal income tax reform – otherwise forget it as you’re not gonna get that from the ALP; unless you’re a lesbie academic who runs your own business consulting to the Writers Festival.

  47. Come to think of it – why don’t we have a National Sorry Day just for aggrieved members of this forum?

    A terrific idea.
    The best suggestion yet.

  48. Robert Blair

    So Cats are hoping for, predicting, the demise of our former friend TA.

    Old Hebrew saying: “More tears are shed over wishes that are granted …”.

    Oh look, it’s our new PM – the lights a bit dim, let me see, is it Malcolm, or Bill?

  49. Senile Old Guy

    So Cats are hoping for, predicting, the demise of our former friend TA.

    No, I’m hoping his policy decisions will improve.

    I’m predicting his demise if he continues on the current course.

  50. lem

    So Cats are hoping for, predicting, the demise of our former friend TA.

    He wasn’t my friend. He was someone who wanted my vote to deliver him government on the basis of things he said he was going to do. He hasn’t.

    So I’m open to other offers.

  51. egg_

    Oh look, it’s our new PM – the lights a bit dim, let me see, is it Malcolm, or Bill?

    Almost certainly the case.

  52. Badjack

    TURNBULL …you are taking the piss Sinc……The day he takes back the leadership watch the poll numbers drop below 30.

  53. Gab

    To be fair – we should add bringing back Knighthoods to the list of achievements

    Yes, Sir Sinclair Davidson has a nice ring to it. :roll:

  54. Baldrick

    FMD if Sir Wentworth becomes the leader you’ll all be wishing for the return of TA.

  55. Gab

    former friend TA

    Please, I don’t pay my friends. He’s a politician just like the Labor ones.

  56. Craig Mc

    Anyone who thinks Malcolm Turnbull will ever lead the Liberals again has rocks in their head.

    FFS, do you remember how he lost the job in the first place, or have you had a stroke?

  57. Gab

    Abbott is aspiring to be a Turnbull.

  58. Alfonso

    Tone should delegate Their ABC and the quaint Liberal belief in CAGW to Morrison to deal with.
    Fixed in a month and forgotten. An unintended benefit might be Malcolm’s moving to the cross bench.

  59. caveman

    Might see some action after the new Senate . I don’t know what, but maybe a round house spider monkey kick for staters.

  60. egg_

    Abbott is aspiring to be a Turnbull.

    Precisely, Turnbull-lite and duffing it woefully.

  61. Infidel Tiger

    Turnbull genuinely believes in AGW, but he also genuinely believes in low taxes.

    At the moment I don’t know what we’ve got.

  62. Baldrick

    Abbott may be a one term wonder and as for Turnbull well he’s already blown his bolt, so that only leaves Hockey – nobody’s best friend or for my money … come on down Scott Morrison.

  63. Sinclair Davidson

    Turnbull’s at $4.

  64. lem

    Turnbull’s at $4.

    Yeah, shows how the betting market see the punters hindbrains lighting up.

  65. Baldrick

    According to sportsbet- Coalition Leader at next Federal Election
    Abbott – $1.25
    Turncoat – $6.00
    Van Morrison – $7.00
    Hockey – $13.00

  66. lem

    According to sportsbet- Coalition Leader at next Federal Election
    Abbott – $1.25
    Turncoat – $6.00
    Van Morrison – $7.00
    Hockey – $13.00

    Whatever. Next PM is what interests me.

  67. blogstrop

    … when I ask the Ronald Reagan question, “Am I better off now than I was under the previous government”.

    FFS, is that the attitude? Already? You have to ask are you better off, nine months into a coalition term?

    Much of what I read here now is politics, not level-headed analysis. Is that what it means to be libertarian, really?

  68. Sinclair Davidson

    Betting market has Coalition winning next election.

  69. outsider

    To the friends: it feels like they got in under false pretences, they were always going to behave this way. Political Darwinism will have to take its course, just as it must in the UK.

    No LNP ministers should appear on ABC; the equivalent of ALP ministers refusing to appear on Bolt. It’s a culture war they don’t want to even acknowledge, let alone take part in – except as the football. They have let everyone down, not least themselves.

    Turnbull? Politics invents itself anew, so who knows these days? Abbott to muddle through.

  70. Baldrick

    Whatever. Next PM is what interests me.

    Betting market has Coalition winning next election.

    According to sportsbet- Coalition Leader at next Federal Election
    Abbott – $1.25
    Turncoat – $6.00
    Van Morrison – $7.00
    Hockey – $13.00

  71. His Omniscience

    It has always been the plan that Malcolm Turnbull will lead the government after the next election.

  72. incoherent rambler

    Being better than the previous government is not really an accolade.

    The LNP need to do something positive for their base.

  73. Sinclair Davidson

    Much of what I read here now is politics, not level-headed analysis.

    Well yes – it’s almost the end of semester. The level headed analysis will begin once we’re procrastinating about getting marking done. :)

  74. The LNP need to do something positive for their base.

    They brought back knighthoods. Weren’t you paying attention?

    It’s almost like a bunch of Melbourne Uni law graduates sat around going, “People are saying we’re too much like Labor. Now what kind of policies might the conservative base like to see? Knighthoods! That’ll keep them happy.”

  75. Petros

    Hope you Abbott supporters are happy that the Medicare levy will increase in July to fund DisabilityCare Australia. Abbott continuing the Labor waste on feel good BS. Also, the large companies won’t get the 1.5% reduction in the company tax rate as this is used to fund the PPL scheme. Your share dividends will suffer.

  76. Also, the large companies won’t get the 1.5% reduction in the company tax rate as this is used to fund the PPL scheme.

    The best bit is that they lowered the company tax rate by 1.5 percent, then increased it by 1.5 percent on big companies, and are now claiming that the PPL is “fully funded ” with this “new” tax.

    The PPL not “fully funded”. It’s not funded at all. The tax take is almost exactly the same as before.

  77. Greigoz

    What has Abbott ever done for us? Sounds like: “…All right, but apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?”

    PS. @Baldrick – i think a couple more pipe bombs and Bill Heffernan will walk it in.

  78. candy

    You are sounding unkind and a bit mean, Prof. D. It’s puzzling, I can only think it’s because of the debt levy that has set you off on this track against the prime minister. Saddening.

  79. It’s not a debt levy, Candy. It’s just a tax.
    If they were worried about debt they could have postponed new spending initiatives.

  80. Jannie

    It’s all a bit disappointing. But in the bitter end we have nowhere else to go. Not satisfactory.

  81. min

    Abbott has a tough enough job countering the propaganda put out by the left. They get 3 times the media/ABC. Media space to spread the poison . So all you saints would have taken the risk to tell the facts prior to the election walk a mile in his shoes before you say what he should have done. Now get out there and spread the message that it is costing taxpayers 1billion a month in interest and explain triple A ratings

  82. iamok

    I spoke with a Liberal polly mate today and said READ CATALLAXY. WHAT YOU NEED IS ALL THERE.

    It’s not hard folks – sell the message well.

    It is unfortunately proving a big ask.

  83. Gab

    I spoke with a Liberal polly mate today and said READ CATALLAXY. WHAT YOU NEED IS ALL THERE.

    So did he reply “Nah, no need to, mate, it’s a safe Liberal seat”?

  84. candy

    Wasting your breath on these disloyal clowns, min [insert sad emoticon here]

    but I totally agree with you [insert friend emoticon here]!

  85. iamok

    Silence creates a vacuum. Something (in this case anything ) always fills a vacuum.

  86. .

    iamok

    You are a champion of freedom.

  87. So all you saints would have taken the risk to tell the facts prior to the election walk a mile in his shoes before you say what he should have done.

    He should have stuck to his guns. Here’s the story of Abbott’s career as leader of the Liberals in a nutshell.

    When Abbott took the leadership, tThe media successfully portrayed him as a super right wing conservative IPA guy. That’s what everybody thought he was, friend and foe. Thatcher and Reagan’s love child. And yet he was riding high in the polls. Got that? He was popular when he was the small government arch conservative.

    Then he got a bunch of fancy advisors who told him he needed to mellow in order to win ‘middle Australia’ and he completely changed course, tried to become a centrist, and fucked everything.

    The end.

  88. His Omniscience

    Triple A ratings are what you have when a government doesn’t go into debt sufficiently to take full advantage of its superior ability to borrow relative to the private sector.

  89. Andrew

    Sinclair: the question is how long has the book been open for… If it has been open since before the budget, then perhaps they have taken a lot of money on it already. And perhaps they haven’t had many people game to place bets due to budget uncertainty.

    The prices ought to get adjusted by the bookies when events occur but it will also take people placing bets to alter the liability to the extent that the bookie will adjust prices.

    Just a thought…

  90. egg_

    min
    #1321992, posted on May 27, 2014 at 8:05 pm

    Per IT, this ain’t Liberal Party HQ.
    Folks want good governance.
    IMHO if it takes the Left to do it – so be it.
    Abbott’s wooing the swinging voter?

  91. iamok

    No she did not. She is appalled at what’s going on

  92. Gab

    D’you know, I remember when Candy first came here. She had a major political crush on Rudd. She eventually turned on him but it took some gentle guidance from Uncle JC to disabuse her of the notion that Rudd was a good PM.

  93. custard

    The end of Tony Abbott as PM particularly on this site is staggering. We have an infantile political discourse in this country started by Kevin Rudd and fuelled by the dominant leftist media. Anyone who thinks we can totally upend the tax system etc in just 9months or even 3 years doesn’t get it. It can’t happen .

    But what fellow bloggers on this site should not underestimate is Tony Abbott. He is arguing a case the opposition is in denial of , a position that is not sustainable. At some point they will need to articulate how they will find the $80b that they had not factored in, it was a myth.

    The other obvious hurdle for the ALP is the union Royal Commission. Anyone who seriously believes that Bill Shorten will the leader of the opposition by the end of this year, let alone come the next election, needs to visit Mike Smith news web site and get across the detail.

    The demise of Shorten will certainly assist the government in the prosecution of its case. It will happen.

  94. iamok

    Dot

    Despairing is what I am. I truly fear that the schoolkids will get back in and start playing at govement again. If so we are all but stuffed

  95. Tel

    Much of what I read here now is politics, not level-headed analysis.

    The analysis has been done, the answer is obvious: reduce government spending. That’s it.

    Abbott, you had one job.

  96. .

    His Omniscience
    #1322008, posted on May 27, 2014 at 8:13 pm
    Triple A ratings are what you have when a government doesn’t go into debt sufficiently to take full advantage of its superior ability to borrow relative to the private sector.

    What’s the rate of return on the last seven years of governmental spending, you monstrous, dangerously ill informed dickhead?

  97. candy

    Hey Gab

    I never voted Labor. But I disliked the disloyalty showed to Kevin Rudd by his Party and supporters who just dumped him for a lowish poll …Many Australians felt the same and see what happened to Ms Gillard afterwards.

    Kind of like what you guys are trying to do here. It bothers me this is happening here.

  98. Robert Blair

    Professor Sinclair,

    I am a little disappointed in TA, clearly not as disappointed as you are.

    I am keeping in mind that TA is not, and never professed to be, a full-bore Libertarian. Even so the budget is bit of a bummer. And the 18C backdown (it appears to be so anyway) is also poor.

    I am hoping that TA has some higher plan into which this all fits. (Aside: better read Scruton’s “The Uses of Pessimism and the Danger of False Hope”).

    If this is way of lining up the ducks for a Double Dissolution, then it may make sense. Maybe not played all that well, but a rational plan.

    If I am wrong, then we will know before too much longer (ie, no DD).

    And then I will be prepared to lambaste TA as just another Malcolm Fraser wannabe. Which is harsh punishment indeed sir!

  99. .

    It bothers you does it?

    What bothers me is you don’t give a shit about broken promises such as tax increases which the Greens support.

  100. Gab

    But I disliked the disloyalty

    Yeah, I’m rather annoyed at Abbott’s lack of loyalty to his voter base too. Just goes to show he’s just like the rest of them, but better-looking.

  101. egg_

    It bothers me this is happening here.

    The polls are all that matter.

  102. candy

    Well dot, perhaps you will welcome a GreenLabor government again? One that will be out of control with regard to spending and increasing taxes.

  103. Gab

    It bothers me this is happening here.

    If you want loyalty, get a dog. This is politics not a freidnly knitting-circle.

    Abbott’s done a few things wrong and I’ll call him out on it every time. He’s not a God.

  104. And now a word from our sponsor, poll-crazed professor of punditry, Bob Ellis:


    It’s likely Abbott will be overthrown in the next nine days and his successor Dutton, Hunt or Turnbull will rapidly and brutally excise Hockey from the Treasury; not certain, but likely.

    In other words, youse is all wrong.

  105. Tel

    But I disliked the disloyalty showed to Kevin Rudd by his Party…

    I prefer to be loyal to a principle than to a party, especially given the track record of said party when it comes to being loyal to anything whatosever themselves.

  106. Gab

    perhaps you will welcome a GreenLabor government again?

    This is what I find irritatingly childish. No one wants a repeat of the last six years which is why there is much consternation among the ranks here over how Abbott is morphing into a Labor politician.

    What we want is Abbott to keep his pre-election promises and not lie. If he did these two things alone, he’d differentiate himself and his Party from Labor.

    The polls are already indicative of this.

  107. Gab

    I prefer to be loyal to a principle than to a party

    Exactly. Credos before bros.

  108. dan

    Well dot, perhaps you will welcome a GreenLabor government again? One that will be out of control with regard to spending and increasing taxes.

    We had years of them and these guys have done more to harm my business and my family in six months than the greenfilth ever did. Three years of these guys and I will have paid $15,000 in extra income tax alone. Plus my customers will continue their exodus from private insurance, plus my income will permanently decrease by around 6-7% due to lack of Medicare indexation. Which might all be understandable if there was an end goal, but it’s clear that spending next year will be significantly greater than it was under Labor, and Tony friggin Jones will still be earning about the same as me for a 1 hour work (plus makeup time) week compared to my 60-70+

    What have these guys done for people like me, or my customer base or anyone I am connected to? Stopped the boats? Fine, but that wasn’t exactly my biggest problem in life.

  109. dan

    No one wants a repeat of the last six years

    It’s not a repeat of the last six years, it’s worse because spending is literally going to be more than it has ever been, with higher taxes.

    Plus if greenfilth came up with this at least we could rely on the LNP to oppose it.

    Clearly any tax increases proposed by this Lib rabble will automatically go through.

  110. Vicki

    An opening for an alternate party is making way as the so-called left and right meet and are indistinguishable.

    In view of the win for UKIP in the EU elections & its remarkable progress locally – what about an AIP – Australia Independence Party?

  111. custard

    This is what I find irritatingly childish. No one wants a repeat of the last six years which is why there is much consternation among the ranks here over how Abbott is morphing into a Labor politician.

    Well I don’t think he is morphing into that at all. Anyone who honestly believes that the government could have gone harder ignores the fact the the nation has become a bunch of mendicant soft cocks in the last six years and it will take years to reverse the psyche .

  112. candy

    GreenLabor would probably stick something like a 60% income tax on you Dan, if they get back in. It is their dream. Surely you know that?

  113. Gab

    It’s not a repeat of the last six years, it’s worse because spending is literally going to be more than it has ever been, with higher taxes.

    For some reason the rusted ons who would never forgive Labor doing this seem to believe it’s a bonza idea just becuase Abbott is introducing it.

  114. Gab

    Custard, he said he is the government of lower taxes, lower spending. He’s increased taxes and increased spending.

  115. custard

    Custard, he said he is the government of lower taxes, lower spending. He’s increased taxes and increased spending.

    And at some point if he can bring the states to the table to drop stupid state taxes like stamp duty and payroll tax along with a broadening of the GST and a personal tax cut would that be a good outcome? That is just a start surely?

  116. Gab

    And at some point if he can bring the states to the table to drop stupid state taxes like stamp duty and payroll tax along with a broadening of the GST and a personal tax cut would that be a good outcome?

    What makes you think he could do any of this and wouls even want to?

  117. custard

    Read my posts above. It won’t and can’t happen overnight let alone in 9 months or even 3 years.

    Sadly any change to taxes in this country of any meaningful nature are long winded and cause all matter of political pain.

    Be patient mate. We’ll have to be . Because it just cannot happen as soon as you or me would want.

  118. Vicki

    I heard newbie senators Bob Day & David Leyonhjelm speak tonight at the CIS. They think that the PUP senators will not follow Clive’s line as time goes on.

    This will annoy Clive no end & he may attempt to muscle one of them out. He won’t like watching them have all the fun in the Senate while he is bored silly in the Reps.

    Interesting.

  119. dan

    GreenLabor would probably stick something like a 60% income tax on you Dan, if they get back in. It is their dream. Surely you know that?

    They had six years to do this and it didn’t happen. Taxes have got up to almost 50% but, oops that was the Liberal party who have almost done that.

    And at some point if he can bring the states to the table to drop stupid state taxes like stamp duty and payroll tax along with a broadening of the GST and a personal tax cut would that be a good outcome? That is just a start surely?

    What planet are you on? Spending and taxation are increasing for god’s sake, that is the Liberal party’s plan, plus they are indicating that they want GST increased as well. Personal tax cut? In your dreams.

  120. Andrew

    And now a word from our sponsor, poll-crazed professor of punditry, Bob Ellis:

    It’s likely Abbott will be overthrown in the next nine days and his successor Dutton, Hunt or Turnbull will rapidly and brutally excise Hockey from the Treasury; not certain, but likely.

    In other words, youse is all wrong.

    Is Bob Ellis some sort of comedy act? How could you be wrong so many times? :-/

  121. Grigory M

    Then he got a bunch of fancy advisors who told him he needed to mellow in order to win ‘middle Australia’ and he completely changed course, tried to become a centrist, and fucked everything.

    Seemed to me that, getting close to the election, the electorate began to have cold feet and the polls turned. What should have been a landslide became a much closer contest, so Abbott switched to the “me too” strategy – no new taxes, no changes to anything, “I’m the best friend of Gonski and the NDIS” – anything to get elected. Now, he’s been shown to be just as deceptive as those he has long criticized for lying.

  122. custard

    What planet are you on? Spending and taxation are increasing for god’s sake, that is the Liberal party’s plan, plus they are indicating that they want GST increased as well. Personal tax cut? In your dreams.

    So you think you’ve got a chance of this happening under the watch of the ALP do you? Get real. If we have any chance of meaningful tax reform in this country your only hope is the coalition. Anyone who thinks this can happen overnight or in a very short period of time is politically naive.

  123. dan

    Look custard, they didn’t have to change anyone’s culture. If there was anyone in the decision-making process with some real-life experience they could have come up with a plan like this:
    Reduce all expenditures by 5% across the board to soften people up.
    Complete public sector hiring freeze.
    Freeze absolutely everything, all expenditures, all PS wages at what they could call ‘Labor levels’ i.e. 2012-2013 for the term of this government.
    No increased taxes except bracket creep.
    If normal indexation was say 3% they would be saving tens of billions over three years. Over that time they could start looking at increasing pension ages and whatever else.

    Ultimately I think what we are seeing is the same thing that happened under Rudd. Namely a small group of people with influential advisors who are locked up with each other and their cigars and who have completely lost any shred of common sense.

    Since the budget I have spoken to doctors, lawyers, MPs, bankers, and they all think the LNP have completely lost the plot. It seems to me that to paraphrase Blackadder, there are two schools of thought on the matter, that of the ‘gang of three’ and that of everyone else.

  124. egg_

    Exquisite irony, Rustadons bemoaning the ABC when one of Abbott’s first announcements was that he wouldn’t touch the ABC – cognitive dissonance?

  125. Lysander

    Much of what I read here now is politics, not level-headed analysis.

    Well yes – it’s almost the end of semester. The level headed analysis will begin once we’re procrastinating about getting marking done.

    Hear hear!!! I finished yesterday!!! Now cut my fricking income tax for that additional marking!!!

  126. custard

    @dan

    I’ve been self employed for 10 years and I am faced with closing up despite a turn over of over $3m a year.

    I sell used cars. Good late model shiny ones.

    Retail is fucked. And I’m in WA. I want the atmospherics to change quickly, but they can’t.

    I can’t respond anymore tonight, tea is on the table. We need a change and I feel the suggestions you make are too simplistic and lack vision.

    I jump back on later…….

  127. The end of Tony Abbott as PM particularly on this site is staggering. We have an infantile political discourse in this country started by Kevin Rudd and fuelled by the dominant leftist media. Anyone who thinks we can totally upend the tax system etc in just 9months or even 3 years doesn’t get it.

    No, you don’t get it.
    Designing your political strategy around a fear of what they’ll say on Insiders and QandA is contemptible. There was a mood for change. people wanted change. That’s why Abbott was popular.
    Then he squibbed and decided it was all too hard and got scared of Labor’s only advantage, sympathetic media coverage.

    But he had the numbers. (I mean the numbers that count, in voters who supported reform). He threw that away.

  128. don

    how you suffered for your sanity
    how you tried to set them free.
    They would not listen
    they did not know how

  129. Anyone who thinks this can happen overnight or in a very short period of time is politically naive.

    We don’t know if spending &taxation reduction would be politically acceptable until someone tries it.
    Until then we will have to take your word for it that it’s impossible.

  130. Ultimately I think what we are seeing is the same thing that happened under Rudd. Namely a small group of people with influential advisors who are locked up with each other and their cigars and who have completely lost any shred of common sense.

    Very well put.

  131. Makka

    “Mr Abbott and his majority government will be extracting more tax from my household than the previous Labor government did.”

    Well said. Mine as well. That and ” The Govt doesn’t have a Revenue problem, it has a spending problem” disgust me with how this LNP Govt has behaved. Sorry, but I voted in Abbott to bring ridiculous spending under control. Not raise my taxes. I already support suburbs of bogans in Rockingham. I supported Abbott and the LNP to a) rid us of the incompetent Socialists and b) get Govt out of my pocket by replacing it with a prudent spending one. Massive fail on b).

    The real problem is Abbott has shied away from the hard stuff while mounting his budgetary attack on the likes of me. Why hasn’t he defunded the ALPBC, why is the Green industry still alive, why spend ludicrous sums on well off mothers, where is the massive downsizing of the PS, why are we committing to these fking planes?

    He has lost me. It’s clear now Abbott agreed to anything to get in knowing it was too much. In not spooking the horses pre-election, he has now zeroed in on the soft targets of which my household is one. The only one I consider worthy of trust on the front bench is Morrison. He has executed exactly as promised.

  132. Lysander

    Spit between supporting Abbott just so abc heads explode versus paying 1000s extra in tax…hmmmm…

    Still a tough one!

  133. Senile Old Guy

    What have these guys done for people like me, or my customer base or anyone I am connected to? Stopped the boats? Fine, but that wasn’t exactly my biggest problem in life.

    Exactly. And this:

    Since the budget I have spoken to doctors, lawyers, MPs, bankers, and they all think the LNP have completely lost the plot.

    And this:

    I’ve been self employed for 10 years and I am faced with closing up despite a turn over of over $3m a year.

    Abbott is not your friend. He is now the problem.

    He is: not cutting government expenditure; he is increasing taxes; he is spending big on things that were not mentioned before the election ($80 billion on roads and $20 billion on the “world’s biggest medical research fund).

    F*ck it. I am a bit drunk and more than a bit cross.

    Abbott is the biggest political liar I have ever voted for. He will not lead the government to the next election. He will be dumped within a year.

  134. custard

    I gulped down dinner.

    So let’s get this right. The government falls short of delivering a budget that is way below the expectations on this site, that so much so, if an election were held tomorrow they would lose.

    And you think he lacks political courage . Losing and not being able to make a change and giving the treasury benches back to the other lot would be political stupidity.

    Which one do you want?

  135. Preserve us, oh Lord, from Malcolm Turnbull.

    At all costs, this. So for fuck’s sake, people, get behind Abbott and support him. He’s got enough trouble from the Left media as it is without us adding to it.

  136. candy

    Senile Old Guy
    Why not just proclaim yourself an ALP member and be done! Liberate yourself!

  137. candy

    Wasting your breath Perturbed. This is officially a hate Abbott site.

  138. incoherent rambler

    +100% to aussiepundit

  139. dan

    I gulped down dinner.

    So let’s get this right. The government falls short of delivering a budget that is way below the expectations on this site, that so much so, if an election were held tomorrow they would lose.

    And you think he lacks political courage . Losing and not being able to make a change and giving the treasury benches back to the other lot would be political stupidity.

    Which one do you want?

    Custard firstly I feel for you and your business and I certainly count my considerable blessings.

    However your comments require one to believe that although things are very hard to change now, the LNP are progressing little by little towards a noble goal.

    While it is true that a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, it is important that the step is oriented in the direction of the goal. They have turned in the wrong direction to start with and there is no indication that anything will change for the better. If you can convince me otherwise, please do.

    Losing and not being able to change things…well I am in the curious position of hoping that Liberal policies are scuttled in the Senate because only PUP can prevent me paying tens of thousands of dollars in extra tax should the Libs not lose the next election.

  140. Petros

    No we won’t, Perturbed. We know when we’ve been lied to and screwed over. The hope now is for a leadership challenge and a genuine conservative gets in, not a tax and spend closet socialist. Even better would be a libertarian but that is a bit wishful at present. One day…

  141. dan

    and support him.

    Support what? My tax increases? PPL? Direct action? The increased spending next year? The increased revenue next year? The lack of tax reform? The utter disgrace that is an entire billion dollar+ industry of government-controlled media? The lack of reform of, and apparent Liberal support of socialised health care, propped up by people like me who are supposed to accept rebates getting on 30% of 1982 levels in real terms?

  142. Andrew

    For those of you who value stopping the boats.

    We’re called “Australians. ” It was the #1 issue at the election, with both major parties leading with it. Effectively so did the Filth (on the other side).

    Dan, might not have been your biggest issue but I live in Western Sydney and pay the taxes that get handed to these people and their enablers, and their “families.” I can assure you it was mine.

  143. egg_

    And you think he lacks political courage . Losing and not being able to make a change and giving the treasury benches back to the other lot would be political stupidity.

    Given that it’s an Economics blog, how so, dollars wise?

  144. Makka

    “get behind Abbott and support him.”

    Support him? I voted in Abbott so he could support ME and MY aspirations. I already support him with a lavish compensation package. His job as far as I am concerned is to deliver a Conservative Govt that follows Conservative values. Instead he whimps out.

  145. custard

    @dan

    Thanks for the commiserations.

    PUP in their election campaign over here in the West for the senate part II said they would give WA it’s fair share of GST back. I didn’t and still don’t think they could.

    That would require meaningful reform. They may well able be able to save you from getting belted in some other way in the tax system but the rest of us are left with a system that needs change, meaningful change.

    Under the new budget company tax in my case reduces by 1.5%.

    The states have been told that the $80b they thought was there isn’t . They have had their fiscal heads belted together by Abbott and they will have to look at getting rid of stupid state taxes if they want the federal government to alter the GST . I go back to the political reality. It’s fucked I know. But it’s the one we have to deal with.

  146. Vicki

    Ultimately I think what we are seeing is the same thing that happened under Rudd. Namely a small group of people with influential advisors who are locked up with each other and their cigars and who have completely lost any shred of common sense.

    Pay attention Liberal Party social media scanners! This is what it looks like to a lot of your core supporters.

  147. Michel Lasouris

    Ain’t hindsight a wonderous thing?
    If I had Abbott’s opportunity before the last election, I would have put the following argument;
    “Now listen carefully and mark what I say.
    If you really believe that Labor was on the cusp of producing a budget surplus then by all means vote for them. If like the rest of us you know that is bullshit , then don’t vote for them
    ‘Cos, if all that they say is the truth, then there will be no need to make savings or adjust taxes.
    If there are no hidden expenses within their future plans; no ‘land mines’ that they have hidden to be revealed AFTER the election, then by all means go with them.
    But the following are undeniable facts. Labor cannot refute them.
    In 2007 Australia had NO DEBT (that’s no ‘mortgage’) and NO DEFICIT ( that’s the credit card}
    And therefore paid no interest; indeed Australian had $50 BILLION in the bank.
    In2013/4 Australia had $ 678 ,000,000,000.oo in mortgage; $ 123,000,000,000.00 on the credit card, and had to borrow another $1,000,000,000.00 EACH MONTH on the credit card, just to pay the interest! You and I don’t have a credit card, or a mortgage that can accommodate 11 zeros!!
    That means that Labor had spent a massive $ 840,000,000;,000.00 in just six years. And what do they have to show for all this expenditure?
    Some useless, overpriced school halls, and unfinished and vastly over budget NBN, and 200 burnt homes with the death of four innocent young men,
    Additionally Labor has left us with a legacy of still-born project such as ‘cash for clunkers” grocery watch’ and countless other similar thought bubbles.
    That’s about $42,000.00 for every Australian man, woman and child. Can YOU afford this debt? Family of four? That’ s $ 168,000.00. Even excluding interest that’s $8400.00 each year for 20 YEARS!
    And you need to ask” what’s the problem:” Bill?
    Unbelievable.

  148. custard

    Given that it’s an Economics blog, how so, dollars wise?

    Well before you spell out the numbers you have to have the majority on your side. I would assume you are more sympathetic to the coalition in political terms than the other mob and yet the numbers the current mob have offered equals electoral defeat .

    At this stage they lose. So I whilst this may be an economics blog your fucked unless you win the political argument when the time counts (at an election ) .

  149. Tom

    And now a word from our sponsor, poll-crazed professor of punditry, Bob Ellis

    Philippa, I’ve heard Our Bob has been offered a regular gig at Dogshit Today, the unread blog for leftwing howler monkey internet trolls. Do you think this will enhance his profile and increase his audience?

  150. IRFM

    Ye of little faith; when the shouting dies down and the electorate starts to recall the reason why they voted the LNP in the first place then order will restored. At the moment the Labour has the upper hand but they are still a narrow sectional interested corrupt party.

  151. custard

    I note that there is a “Wagner von trot” over at Ellis world and he is having a world of a time putting it right up em in all sorts of ways..

    Very amusing…..

  152. dan

    Mr Lasouris:
    Two more numbers for you. To quote ‘Tom’ on this blog:

    Wand’s last Liars budget 2013-14: expenditure $398.3 billion…
    Sloppy Joe’s first Liberal Socialist budget 2014-15: expenditure $414.8 billion.

    Spot the difference.

    Pay attention Liberal Party social media scanners! This is what it looks like to a lot of your core supporters.

    Oh they don’t need to scan if they were paying attention when I wrote to them (one reply asked for suggestions on reducing the deficit, which was nice).

  153. CatAttack

    My Labor friends just don’t buy the whole debt argument. It’s just like a mortgage they say.

    And as for the Greens. FFS. Shut down the mines. No industry. No forestry (except the money tree). The country apparently will survive by selling jars of strawberry conserve and anti Abbott T shirts.

  154. Gerry

    You are very wrong Prof …..you are in the media/academia world too much it seems ………when the clatter has died down they need to go on a talking tour ….and Abbotts the one we voted for – having Turnbull as Liberal Party leader would be as popular as picking out someone else’s dogs turds from your shoes

  155. Infidel Tiger

    My Labor friends just don’t buy the whole debt argument. It’s just like a mortgage they say.

    It’s like a mortgage only if you need to borrow money to meet your mortgage payments.

  156. M Ryutin

    For all the down in the dumps Libertarian-Cats, Bob Day & David Leyonhjelm are your candidates, not Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party. Your interests merely overlap with Liberal Party policies from time to time, that’s all.

    Mass parties who actually want to be popularly elected to govern will always clash with the purity of a Libertarian.

  157. JohnA

    Gab #1321764, posted on May 27, 2014 at 5:56 pm

    We have to hand it to him for bringing down 3 Labor PMs

    In hindsight, a one-legged dwarf with face AIDS who had just drowned a litter of kittens could have won the last election. That’s how much Labor was on the nose.

    Gab, your memory seems short.

    That is not a Labour government on the nose. Victoria 1993 – THAT was a Labour government on the nose!

  158. Infidel Tiger

    A tweet from the CIS who had David L and Bob Day talking tonight:

    DL: There would be no need for a Liberal Democratic Party if the Liberals were liberal, and not tax-and-spend conservatives
    4:29pm – 27 May 14

  159. incoherent rambler

    You may quote me.

    “Hell hath no fury like a LNP voter who has been told lies”

  160. Mass parties who actually want to be popularly elected to govern will always clash with the purity of a Libertarian.

    So, what you’re saying is that big spending, big taxing governments are popular, and Abbott wants to be popular. Okay. But in that case, why go around for years railing against big taxing, big spending governments?
    Try answering this little riddle.

    If a small government agenda (less taxes, less spending) is so unsaleable, why did Abbott run for years with it? And why was he so popular when he did?

    Take your time. Think carefully. I’ll wait.

  161. Gerry

    Aussiepundit – you make statements – try to bully people into thinking their true by your aggressive stance – and then try to get people to argue on your terms – I’ll leave your anger and bluster to yourself – I’m sure you’ll suck in a few others tho ….

  162. Crossie

    An unintended benefit might be Malcolm’s moving to the cross bench.

    Malcolm could turn out to be the new Oakeshott.

  163. Anita

    Sinc, you have a bee in a your bonnet about the tax. Your mind is so one tracked that you could not or would not accept that a co-payment is not a tax. Stop bashing Tony. I do like the man.

  164. CatAttack

    “Hell have no fury like a LNP voter told lies.”

    Incoherent rambler” you better believe it. And the reasons is that it lowers the Libs down to the same level as Labor Green supporters who spend all the long day sharing posts on Facebook which are outright bloody lies or at very least disinformation. All in a good cause. Whatever it takes, of course.

    Now when I point out their mis-truths they can just state “Well Tony Abbott is a liar” or “All politicians are liars” And I hate that with a passion.

    But having said that Abbott is still a thousand times better than the last lot.

  165. A Lurker

    The polls have agreed with the Cats i.e. a loss of support for Abbott.

    I don’t think the polls have dropped because of the increase in taxes for the highest earners. I think the polls have dropped because of the changes to welfare, the co-payment, the pension age alteration, and the talk about including the family home on pension availability etc.

    Australia seems to have more leaners now, than lifters; or at least, the leaners are louder and whinge more, which the media gleefully likes to highlight, and thus influence the thinking of everyone else who doesn’t really pay much heed to budgets or politics or Canberra.

    Higher earners might get taxed more – but what is occupying the minds of ordinary Aussies is the fear that they’ll be getting less Government money than under Labor – and that is what is scaring them.

    Thanks to the media and the whingers, they are perceiving this as a harsh budget and are panicking.

  166. laugh out loud

    Ho ho ho – this guy was an A grade clown before election and now he has feet of clay. Nothing but hi visit stunts – you do remember that? You are either fools or knaves. The LNP was the laziest opposition in years what do you expect now. Second xi from the arse end of the Howard years. And you all thought he was some sort of saviour? Ha ha ha. Rudd was a complete egotist, but to then elect a moron?

  167. Robert O.

    Australia has a structural problem, namely the states, territories, and the Commonwealth and their servants all vying for power, money and influence. Why have environmental legislation and depts. for the states and commonwealth: the same is true for health and education? The overhead cost for all this largely unproductive duplication is incredible, but rarely discussed, but until we have some people of with the calibre of statesmen, it never will be. What a waste of time discussing the important issues of the day as to whether the PM winked, or not. What I would like to see is a real summary of the budget position, how much money do we owe the rest of the world, what is the interest bill for this and a breakdown of the costs of running the country for both the states and commonwealth; it’s a big ask, but it would be interesting to see.

  168. CatAttack

    A lurker. Agreed. That’s why I couldn’t agree with the statement earlier about the Abbott having had the numbers that count, in voters who supported reform.

    I think a lot of voters that swung in the last election were not looking for reform they were looking to get rid of the circus that was Rudd Gillard Rudd. I am not convinced at all these very same people don’t want free stuff and won’t act out of self interest.

  169. Combine_Dave

    Sinc, you have a bee in a your bonnet about the tax. Your mind is so one tracked that you could not or would not accept that a co-payment is not a tax. Stop bashing Tony. I do like the man.

    Which one? The copayment, ppl levy, deficit levy, fuel excise increase, proposed gst increases?

  170. Combine_Dave

    If the libs act to depose Abbott (and I dont recommend they do), how long before the spin stories come out saying he is difficult to work with?

  171. A Lurker

    I think a lot of voters that swung in the last election were not looking for reform they were looking to get rid of the circus that was Rudd Gillard Rudd. I am not convinced at all these very same people don’t want free stuff and won’t act out of self interest.

    What is that old saying, something like – Governments get voted out, not in.

    Australia was desperate to lose Labor/Greens and thus voted them out. The biggie I suspect was the boats, followed by the carbon tax, the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd circus, followed by their incompetence.

    It might be all about the budget to Cat economists – but I suspect that a drying up of Government money into wallets and purses, will also equal a drying up of support for the Libs from ordinary folk who have become too used to the Welfare State and don’t really think our debt is too big (remember these are people who have credit cards, bank loans and mortgages, and who are used to carrying debt all the time).

    A really hard Libertarian-small Government style budget was never ever going to fly in mainstream Australia, so all the Caterwauling going on here will have no resonance in the wider electorate who are made up of workers earning far less than $100K a year and who think the big end of town is still not pulling its weight.

  172. laugh out loud

    Robert O – I agree but Abbott is not capable of advancing this agenda, he simply can’t negotiate and his history of outright opposition hampers him. All the issues are in play that PMs over the past 40 years have sought to negotiate but TA is no leader. Abbott has poisoned the well and unless he is prepared to back down on this issue he will make no progress. However, he is a poor negotiator and who knows what (little) can happen. He is a deeply flawed character making negotiation difficult (ask Tony Windsor).
    BTW all the stats on debt are available – if anything you should be worrying bout household and not govt debt.

  173. Tel

    If a small government agenda (less taxes, less spending) is so unsaleable, why did Abbott run for years with it? And why was he so popular when he did?

    The small government agenda is saleable to the people of Australia, but it is unsaleable to the people of Canberra.

    Abbott just came around to figuring out which group of people are more important.

  174. Grigory M

    Will Supply be blocked in the Senate (current and/or new make-up)? If it is, will the Governor-General intervene and allow Shorten to seek the confidence of the House of Reps? When Shorten fails because he doesn’t have the numbers (or if the G-G doesn’t give him the opportunity), will the Governor-General dissolve both Houses and call a Double Dissolution Election? In that event, will Tony Abbott remain as caretaker Prime Minister and lead the Coalition through the campaign?

  175. Senile Old Guy

    Senile Old Guy
    Why not just proclaim yourself an ALP member and be done! Liberate yourself!

    As I have said several times on this blog, I am a swinging voter in a marginal electorate. I vote for the best (in my opinion) candidate and party at the election. My current (coalition) MP will be gone at the next election and that will be because Abbott did not attempt to fulfil the promises he made before the election.

    Note that I said “attempt”. What can be done depends on the senate but he hasn’t even tried.

    In overnight news, the Liberals have backed down on changes to the Racial Discrimination Act and appear to be taking a position that will make it even worse than it already is. Again, they haven’t even tried to get changes through the senate.

    Abbott’s “cuts, cuts, cuts” and “no surprises” have become “lots of surprises” and “spend, spend, spend”. Only rusted-ons — and there are several here — still support him.

  176. egg_

    It has always been the plan that Malcolm Turnbull will lead the government after the next election.

    Quite plausible – nothing in Abbott’s current agenda would differ with Turnbull’s.

  177. Anita,

    Sinc, you have a bee in a your bonnet about the tax. Your mind is so one tracked that you could not or would not accept that a co-payment is not a tax.

    the co-payment is a tax because it’s going to a medical research fund. Because they’re using it for government programs, that makes it a tax. If they just said, “we’re not subsidising that bit” it wouldn’t be a tax.

    The “debt levy” is not a debt levy, it’s a wealth tax. This is socialism 101. While Abbott’s version is relatively benign and supposedly temporary, he has laid the groundwork for Labor to reintroduce it down the line on a larger scale. The Liberals will come to rue the introduction of the debt levy.

    ————————————————–

    I don’t think the polls have dropped because of the increase in taxes for the highest earners. I think the polls have dropped because of the changes to welfare, the co-payment, the pension age alteration, and the talk about including the family home on pension availability etc.

    The polls have changed because he is seen to have lied.
    New taxes and changes to the pension are broken promises, regardless of their merits.

  178. egg_

    I think a lot of voters that swung in the last election were not looking for reform they were looking to get rid of the circus that was Rudd Gillard Rudd. I am not convinced at all these very same people don’t want free stuff and won’t act out of self interest.

    Appears to be becoming a meme here, but with little credence.

  179. egg_

    Second xi from the arse end of the Howard years.

    Indisputable – but same/worse on the other side.

  180. Fibro

    I’ve taken out a quinella on Morrison and Bishop before next election as leader and deputy.

    The only 2 who have done what they said they would do. Stop boats and close down ALPBC overseas. The remainder have way too much of a credibility problem.

  181. Tom

    So which formerly banned troll now adopts the latest troll identity? On the other hand, it does sound like just another pre-teen swallowing this year’s fucktard talking points who has stumbled into the Cat from Spacechook.

  182. Alfonso

    There is a statist leftard heaven, we aren’t there yet. Standby one.

  183. Mr Skeletor

    Leadership speculation posts? Really?

    Anyone who thinks the Libs are on the nose because of the debit tax and not because the moochers think they getting less is an utter fool.

    For all the whining about the left, this thread doesn’t show many Cats in a much better life – it’s all about ME and how much worse off ‘I’ am. Whatever happened to looking at the bigger picture?

    No wonder Bill Shorten is going to win the next election. People like Dan deserve him.

  184. egg_

    Anyone who thinks the Libs are on the nose because of the debit tax and not because the moochers think they getting less is an utter fool.

    If so, why were Labor comprehensively booted out of Government?
    The ‘free stuff’ argument holds the public in contempt – case in point: Barry Unsworth couldn’t buy votes, despite trying very hard.

  185. A Lurker

    If so, why were Labor comprehensively booted out of Government?

    Governments are voted out, oppositions are not voted in.

    As to why? Boats. Craig Thomson. Boats. Carbon Tax. Boats. Gillard. Boats. Rudd. Boats. Peter Slipper. Boats – closely followed by ineptitude and infighting, with dodgy dealings a distant second.

  186. Senile Old Guy

    For all the whining about the left, this thread doesn’t show many Cats in a much better life – it’s all about ME and how much worse off ‘I’ am. Whatever happened to looking at the bigger picture?

    Most are looking at the bigger picture: tiny cuts, more spending and an increasing deficit. $80 billion for “twenty-first century” roads. $20 billion for the “world’s biggest” medical research fund.

  187. Andore Jr.

    The key lesson TA must, must learn from all of this is that the lefties will hate him whatever he does.

    With that in mind he should go the absolute full monty, cut spending to the marrow, wear the same level of pain, but at least have a substantial platform for re-election.
    He’s always going to lose on Twitter and Facebook against Adam Bandt; right now he’s picking the wrong battles.

  188. Senile Old Guy

    Terry McCrann (via Bolt) tries again:

    As for the so-called promises that the Abbott-Hockey Government would not raise a single tax or cut a dollar off the big spending items; the overriding promise was to cut the deficit.

    Ah, yes! The magical “overriding promise”! They are keeping that one…by increasing spending! What?

    So whatever Abbott and Hockey actually said in the campaign, quite clearly their overarching promise to cut the deficit meant they were promising to do something on either spending or taxes or both.

    “So whatever Abbott and Hockey actually said”, McCrann will now interpret to mean what he wants it to mean: i.e. what they are doing.

    No matter how often the media wants to parrot a supposed explicit promise of “no new taxes”, they simply did not give it in the campaign — which again, is the only rational definition of “an election promise”.

    Unbelievable that he is still running this line of nonsense. Did they run around saying “no new taxes but we may raise some existing taxes”? I must have missed that.

  189. Mr Skeletor

    Most are looking at the bigger picture: tiny cuts, more spending and an increasing deficit. $80 billion for “twenty-first century” roads. $20 billion for the “world’s biggest” medical research fund.

    Fair enough, I’m not in favor of a lot of the budget either. But in the last few weeks I’ve realised that the ‘ideal’ budget that we need won’t wash with the masses at the moment. At least this budget is laying out some groundwork. A full on Cat budget would get crucified even more.
    I’ll be worse off under this budget then Labors, but at least at the end of it the books look somewhat improved.

    The ‘free stuff’ argument holds the public in contempt – case in point: Barry Unsworth couldn’t buy votes, despite trying very hard.

    Please, go out side and look around. Clive Palmer’s political career is built on “Free Stuff!” and he’d be the most loved political leader in Australia at the moment.

  190. egg_

    Please, go out side and look around. Clive Palmer’s political career is built on “Free Stuff!” and he’d be the most loved political leader in Australia at the moment.

    So he’ll be forming Government when?

  191. egg_

    Most are looking at the bigger picture

    +1

    The driveby critics are projecting, no?

  192. Tom

    The key lesson TA must, must learn from all of this is that the lefties will hate him whatever he does.

    Sorry, he can’t hear you. His chief advisor is a leftist and screens his calls.

  193. Viva

    Cat posters vow and declare their anti-Abbott stance is based on principle. I don’t buy all this righteous indignation about broken promises. Support for the libs in general and Abbott in particular in this forum has always been brittle and paper thin. I seem to remember when Rudd came back into contention and the polls swung in his favour, people here started swinging support away from Abbott and being less than complimentary in their comments about him to say the least. You won’t cut the guy any slack even though he has to operate in an environment which has been totally unforgiving from the get go. You refuse to even consider the problems associated with culture change and the need to compromise and take a longer view. Your prescriptions must be followed to the letter right here, right now. The world just doesn’t work like that. You are surely all old and enough and ugly enough to have learnt that by now. Why haven’t you?

  194. johanna

    Anyone who doubts that Abbott has a tin ear – at least sometimes – need only recall that he initially supported a proposed constitutional amendment to entrench local government; this was an appallingly bad idea which he was eventually forced to backtrack on. And he now supports the inclusion of indigenes in the Constitution, another appalling idea.

    He doesn’t seem to grasp the big picture very well – exhibit A being the Budget.

  195. Gab

    Shorter Viva: How dare anyone criticise Abbott and the Libs!!!1!!!!

  196. Viva

    Shorter Gab et al. My way or the highway.

  197. egg_

    Viva
    #1322824, posted on May 28, 2014 at 10:58 am

    Slinging mud?
    As an individual I was one of Abbott’s staunchest supporters in Opposition (care to search Catallaxy?) however, he’s been woeful in Govt since the get go and I called him on it, versus his early support at the Cat.
    As a pundit, I was the ONLY? Cat who predicted that Rudd would challenge, as it was the only way out of Gillard’s mess.
    Abbott is heading in the same direction (and Labor and the MSM sense his weakness).

  198. A Lurker

    Viva – our household has no skin in the game in regards to this budget. We’re not high income earners, and likewise we receive no Government money via welfare. The impact on our household will only be via the co-payment and the increase to petrol.

    I voted for the LNP last year and my three reasons were – border security, the carbon tax, and 18C. The LNP has fixed the borders – win! The carbon tax is still out there and is waiting on an agreeable Senate – draw. However if 18C isn’t amended as the LNP promised, then that’s a deal breaker for me. As I posted in the open thread, you cannot compromise on freedoms, especially freedom of speech. You either have it or you don’t. There is no halfway house. I feel very strongly on this matter. If 18C remains, or the changes are so lukewarm as to laughable, then my vote is gone. Sorry.

  199. candy

    Slinging mud?
    As an individual I was one of Abbott’s staunchest supporters in Opposition (care to search Catallaxy?)

    With all due respect, egg_ I noted that, and your turnabout is mind boggling. It’s like it happened in a space of two weeks.
    Sure one gets disillusioned and takes a different point of view over a period of time after weighing things up gradually, but yours happened in two weeks.

  200. Perpetual Motion

    I don’t want Labor back (although it wouldn’t be the end of the world), I won’t be satisfied until I see some blood spilt* for the blatant lies and political cowardice.

    Since Abbott is behaving just like Rudd, I would be delighted to see him suffer the same fate.

    And Custard, whilst I’m sympathetic to your situation, if you keep saying Abbott has delivered “below our expectations”, I may suffer a stroke.

    Increasing spending and raising taxes is not “below expectations”. It’s the exact opposite of what he promised!

    *Metaphorically speaking

  201. egg_

    Sure one gets disillusioned and takes a different point of view over a period of time after weighing things up gradually, but yours happened in two weeks.

    I was disillusioned over the ‘bunker style’ Government from the outset, as were you? – but the Budget will sink the Libs.

  202. candy

    I was disillusioned over the ‘bunker style’ Government from the outset, as were you? – but the Budget will sink the Libs.

    They started off too quiet, I remember that clearly, and that was troublesome for Tony Abbott.

    But I don’t change my political allegiance over that – not even a policy for Heaven’s sake – and certainly not change my allegiance in a two week timeframe.

  203. politichix

    Viva
    #1322824, posted on May 28, 2014 at 10:58 am
    Cat posters vow and declare their anti-Abbott stance is based on principle. I don’t buy all this righteous indignation about broken promises. Support for the libs in general and Abbott in particular in this forum has always been brittle and paper thin. I seem to remember when Rudd came back into contention and the polls swung in his favour, people here started swinging support away from Abbott and being less than complimentary in their comments about him to say the least. You won’t cut the guy any slack even though he has to operate in an environment which has been totally unforgiving from the get go. You refuse to even consider the problems associated with culture change and the need to compromise and take a longer view. Your prescriptions must be followed to the letter right here, right now. The world just doesn’t work like that. You are surely all old and enough and ugly enough to have learnt that by now. Why haven’t you?

    Thank you Viva, thank you!! +10

  204. Gab

    I don’t buy all this righteous indignation about broken promises.

    I bet you were pretty indignant about Labor breaking its many promises over the year but that somehow is forbidden when it’s your tribe doing the same thing.

  205. I am the Walrus, Koo Koo K'Choo

    I’m a DJ by profession and I’ve seen quite a few pollies on the dance floor. I tell you Joe Hockey’s the best mover and shaker I’ve seen.

    Well then why doesn’t he bugger off and become a Go-Go Girl, instead of faffing around in a role that he quite clearly isn’t cut out for??

  206. Mr Skeletor

    I bet you were pretty indignant about Labor breaking its many promises over the year but that somehow is forbidden when it’s your tribe doing the same thing.

    The promises thing is a nonsense. If Tony broke his paid parental leave scheme promise the Cats (and I) would be jumping in the street in joy. Not cutting ABC was a promise – you going to cry if he breaks that one?
    In the end I want good policy, budgets, and implimentation. That’s what I’ll judge them on next election. I don’t like elements of this budget but no where near as much as I hated Labor’s last 6 budgets, and in the lower house at the end of the day those are the 2 you have to chose from to form government.

  207. egg_

    But I don’t change my political allegiance over that – not even a policy for Heaven’s sake

    I’m in a relatively safe LNP seat – it’s what the electorate en mass decides that matters.

    As to the Rustadons – they should declare their line in the sand over policy, hmmm?

  208. brc

    Nothing but hi visit stunts

    I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure most of his stunts were at ground level.

    Tony the great big tax warrior is a good guy. Tony the tax’n'spender is a compromised caricature that I bet even he dislikes. The fundamental problem is that they still believe in Keynes and withdrawing government largesse will create a problem.

    Abbott is a hundred times better than shorten, and a thousand times better than any Greeen. But that does not excuse him from criticism where he was wandered away to Cameron-like socialism.

  209. goatjam

    What Abbot needs to understand is that the left, and the ABC in particular hate him with an incandescent rage that will not subside.

    He needs to understand that the ABC is already in full-on destroy the conservatives mode.

    He could cut the ABC’s budget in half and they there would be little they could do to up the intensity of their attacks because they are already wound right up to 10.

    For god sake they just last week doctored a photograph of Abbot apparently perving at some cleavage and ambushed him on ABC radio with “Gloria” the sex working grandma. What else can they do?

    By constantly trying to appease the left he is accomplishing only one thing, the destruction of his own support base.

    The left will hate him no matter what he does or doesn’t do. He needs to get over it.

  210. MartinG

    Tony Abbott is an economic illiterate incompetent piece of shit. He has destroyed the conservative base and handed back the country to the Labor/Green alliance. Replace him with Morrison, Bishop as deputy and maybe Turnbull as treasurer scrap the entire budget and get someone like Sinclair Davidson to advise them on the re-write. Do it now

  211. egg_

    For god sake they just last week doctored a photograph of Abbot apparently perving at some cleavage and ambushed him on ABC radio with “Gloria” the sex working grandma. What else can they do?

    From previous, they could depict Hockey as ‘screwing the pooch’ but it could hardly be described as satire.

  212. If Tony broke his paid parental leave scheme promise the Cats (and I) would be jumping in the street in joy.

    No, we wouldn’t. And here’s the proof: many of us (most of us?) actually agree with the pension changes. I wish he hadn’t promised not to change the pension.

    But he did promise that, and having promised it, I wish he’d kept that promise.

    Most of all, I wish he didn’t have a bunch of law school advisors telling him that he needs to be a big spending promise-breaker to stay in power.

  213. You refuse to even consider the problems associated with culture change and the need to compromise and take a longer view.

    There is no need for “culture change” ,you dummies.
    Hawke Keating Howard already won that war years ago.
    Rudd even came into power promising to continue their legacy!!!!! learn some fucking history.

    Rudd and Gillard’s big spending ways never earned them high popularity.

    There’s no culture to change. The money-splashing, debt-incurring Rudd-Gillard administration was the anomaly, not the norm, and the people got rid of them.

  214. Viva

    There’s no culture to change.

    So all that wall-to-wall shrieking of Australians in the face of a very moderate proposals to start slowing spending indicates there is no culture to change. Well fancy that.

  215. So all that wall-to-wall shrieking of Australians in the face of a very moderate proposals to start slowing spending indicates there is no culture to change.

    That’s right.
    You confuse the well-organised activities of interest groups with the attitudes of 13 million voters.
    Vested interests always organise against threats. That’s normal. The point of protests is to
    a)appeal for public support , and
    b) create the appearance of public support.
    Neither of these constitute actual public support (although it may well follow).

  216. also, Abbott has targeted all the wrong things. I mean, pensioners ffs? unemployed youth? Is this really the way to tackle a budget emergency?

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